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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23

Numerical predictions of cryogenic hydrogen vertical jets

Here, a comparison of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) predictions with measurements is presented for cryo-compressed hydrogen vertical jets. The stagnation conditions of the experiments are characteristic of unintended leaks from pipe systems that connect cryogenic hydrogen storage tanks and could be encountered at a fuel cell refueling station. Jets with pressure up to 5 bar and temperatures just above the saturation liquid temperature were examined. Comparisons are made to the centerline mass fraction and temperature decay rates, the radial profiles of mass fraction and the contours of volume fraction. Two notional nozzle approaches are tested to model the under-expanded jet that was formed in the tests with pressures above 2 bar. In both approaches the mass and momentum balance from the throat to the notional nozzle are solved, while the temperature at the notional nozzle was assumed equal to the nozzle temperature in the first approach and was calculated by an energy balance in the second approach. The two approaches gave identical results. Satisfactory agreement with the measurements was found in terms of centerline mass fraction and temperature. However, for test with 3 and 4 bar release the concentration was overpredicted. Furthermore, a wider radial spread was observed in the predictions possibly revealing higher degree of diffusion using the k-ε turbulence model. An integral model for cryogenic jets was also developed and provided good results. Finally, a test simulation was performed with an ambient temperature jet and compared to the cold jet showing that warm jets decay faster than cold jets.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Correlation of ground tests and analyses of a dynamically scaled Space Station model configuration

Verification of analytical models through correlation with ground test results of a complex space truss structure is demonstrated. A multi-component, dynamically scaled space station model configuration is the focus structure for this work. Previously established test/analysis correlation procedures are used to develop improved component analytical models. Integrated system analytical models, consisting of updated component analytical models, are compared with modal test results to establish the accuracy of system-level dynamic predictions. Design sensitivity model updating methods are shown to be effective for providing improved component analytical models. Also, the effects of component model accuracy and interface modeling fidelity on the accuracy of integrated model predictions is examined.

Javeed, Mehzad↗

Correlation of ground tests and analyses of a dynamically scaled space station model configuration

Verification of analytical models through correlation with ground test results of a complex space truss structure is demonstrated. A multi-component, dynamically scaled space station model configuration is the focus structure for this work. Previously established test/analysis correlation procedures are used to develop improved component analytical models. Integrated system analytical models, consisting of updated component analytical models, are compared with modal test results to establish the accuracy of system-level dynamic predictions. Design sensitivity model updating methods are shown to be effective for providing improved component analytical models. Also, the effects of component model accuracy and interface modeling fidelity on the accuracy of integrated model predictions is examined.

Javeed, Mehzad↗

Space Station Freedom integrated fault model

A demonstration of an integrated fault propagation model for Space Station Freedom is described. The demonstration uses a HyperCard graphical interface to show how failures can propagate from one component to another, both within a system and between systems. It also shows how hardware failures can impact certain defined functions like reboost, atmosphere maintenance or collision avoidance. The demonstration enables the user to view block diagrams for the various space station systems using an overview screen, and interactively choose a component and see what single or dual failure combinations can cause it to fail. It also allows the user to directly view the fault model, which is a collection of drawing and text listings accessible from a guide screen. Fault modeling provides a useful technique for analyzing individual systems and also interactions between systems in the presence of multiple failures so that a complete picture of failure tolerance and component criticality can be achieved.

Becker, Fred J.↗

An integrated numerical model for coupled poro-hydro-mechanics and fracture propagation using embedded meshes

Integrated models for fluid-driven fracture propagation and general multiphase flow in porous media are valuable to the study and engineering of several systems, including hydraulic fracturing, underground disposal of waste, and geohazard mitigation across such applications. This work extends the coupled model multiphase flow and poromechanical model of Ren et al. (2018) to admit fracture propagation (FP). The coupled XFEM-EDFM scheme utilizes a separate fracture mesh that is embedded on a static background mesh. The onset and dynamics of fracture propagation are governed by the equivalent stress intensity factor (SIF) criterion. A domain-integral method (J integral) is applied to compute this information. Additionally, an adaptive time-marching scheme is proposed to rapidly restrict and grow temporal resolution to match the underlying time-scales. The proposed model is verified with analytical solutions, and shows the capability to accurately and adaptively co-simulate fluid transport and deformation as well as the propagation of multiple fractures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Results and lessons learned from accelerating radio frequency modeling using machine learning [slides]

The “advanced tokamak” reactor concept is a leading candidate for a steady state fusion pilot plant. An advanced tokamak (AT) sustains a majority of the required plasma current with effects resulting from maintenance of the peaked pressure at the device center. This current is augmented by auxiliary current drive sources. These auxiliary actuators may consist of neutral particle beams and/or radio frequency (RF) systems such as lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) and high harmonic fast wave (HHFW) current drive using radio and microwaves from antennas. The primary focus of this work is to develop models of RF current profile control suitable for use in integrated modeling frameworks and for real-time control in experiments. Direct physics models of RF current drive can be computationally intensive. In order to achieve predictive times appropriate for the thousands of calls needed in real-time control of experiments and for use in integrated models, we will apply modern machine learning (ML) techniques to accelerate these models and interpolate their results. To generate the fast and accurate models for use in control level algorithms and integrated modeling we need to replace present models with high dimensional interpolation of their results. We will perform additional simulations across a broader parameter range for EAST and other tokamaks in different physics regimes (Alcator C-Mod, DIII-D, WEST, CFETR, ARC, ITER) and combine them into a larger database for training and testing of the ML models. Further testing of the control level models with experimental current profile data from EAST and C-Mod tokamaks will provide additional confirmation of the control level model before integration in a tokamak control system or integrated modeling suite. ML will be used to optimize the selection of training data consisting of RF current driven at different values of density profile, temperature profile, plasma current, and wavenumber. ML will also be used to facilitate classification of current drive from these input data. The output of this effort will be a validated classifier capable of determining the current drive profiles for HHFW CD and LHCD on a mille-second timescale. This will provide a breakthrough capability enabling real-time control of RF driven current profiles in experiments including ITER ICRF and use integrated modeling frameworks requiring thousands of current profile calculations in discharge simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) 4.0 Enhanced Functionalities

The Integrated Medical Model is a probabilistic simulation model that uses input data on 100 medical conditions to simulate expected medical events, the resources required to treat, and the resulting impact to the mission for specific crew and mission characteristics. The newest development version of IMM, IMM v4.0, adds capabilities that remove some of the conservative assumptions that underlie the current operational version, IMM v3. While IMM v3 provides the framework to simulate whether a medical event occurred, IMMv4 also simulates when the event occurred during a mission timeline. This allows for more accurate estimation of mission time lost and resource utilization. In addition to the mission timeline, IMMv4.0 features two enhancements that address IMM v3 assumptions regarding medical event treatment. Medical events in IMMv3 are assigned the untreated outcome if any resource required to treat the event was unavailable. IMMv4 allows for partially treated outcomes that are proportional to the amount of required resources available, thus removing the dichotomous treatment assumption. An additional capability IMMv4 is to use an alternative medical resource when the primary resource assigned to the condition is depleted, more accurately reflecting the real-world system. The additional capabilities defining IMM v4.0the mission timeline, partial treatment, and alternate drug result in more realistic predicted mission outcomes. The primary model outcomes of IMM v4.0 for the ISS6 mission, including mission time lost, probability of evacuation, and probability of loss of crew life, are be compared to those produced by the current operational version of IMM to showcase enhanced prediction capabilities.

Spae Adaptation Syndrome↗

Integrated Assessment Modeling

This paper discusses the role of Integrated Assessment models (IAMs) in climate change research. IAMs are an interdisciplinary research platform, which constitutes a consistent scientific framework in which the large-scale interactions between human and natural Earth systems can be examined. In so doing, IAMs provide insights that would otherwise be unavailable from traditional single-discipline research. By providing a broader view of the issue, IAMs constitute an important tool for decision support. IAMs are also a home of human Earth system research and provide natural Earth system scientists information about the nature of human intervention in global biogeophysical and geochemical processes.

global climate change↗

Integral Equation Model of the Martian Surface layer for the Detection of Buried Ice Deposits in Support of the international Ice Mapping Mission Synthetic Aperture Radar

This work implemented a 3-D Electromagnetic Scattering model to gain a better understanding in the observations of L- and P-band radar returns from the multi-layered Martian upper surface layer. The model is based on the Integral Equation Model (IEM) developed by Adrian Fung. Our model implementation treats the upper surface (regolith) layer as an inhomogeneous medium with irregular boundaries for a range of Martian surface and shallow subsurface scenarios. The model is well suited to study the near subsurface (upper 10 meters of surface sediments) ice detection capability of the L-band (32 cm wavelength) Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) planned for the international Mars Ice Mapping (I-MIM) mission launching later in the 2020s.

surface roughness, Integral Equation Model (IEM)↗

Evaluating post-fire watershed response to varying burn severity and precipitation regimes using fully-distributed and integrated hydrologic models

Wildfires can cause significant changes in vegetation and soil, which may lead to increased surface runoff and soil erosion, thereby affecting water cycling within ecosystems. This study uses the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated and fully distributed hydrologic model at the watershed scale, to examine post-fire hydrologic responses in selected watersheds with varying burn severities in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. The model integrates surface overland flow, subsurface flow, and canopy biophysical processes. We have developed a new fire module in ATS to account for changes in soil hydraulic properties caused by fire in the topsoil layer. Modeling results indicate that, in the year following a high-severity burn, watershed-averaged evapotranspiration decreases by 25%. Additionally, post-fire peak flows increase by 18-29% in watersheds burned with medium to high severity due to changes in soil properties. Conversely, a low-severity burn results in less than a 1% increase in post-fire peak flow. Furthermore, a high-severity fire causes a 38% reduction in the infiltration rate within the affected watershed during the first post-fire wet season. Hypothetical numerical experiments with varying precipitation regimes after a high-severity fire show that post-fire peak flows can increase by 1-29% due to fire-induced changes in soil hydraulic properties. This study highlights the importance of using fully distributed hydrologic models to quantify disturbance-feedback loops, which are essential for understanding the complexities brought about by spatial heterogeneity in post-fire landscapes.

ATS↗

Integrable cosmological models in the Einstein and in the Jordan frames and Bianchi-I cosmology

We study integrable models in the Bianchi I metric case with scalar fields minimally and non-minimally coupled with gravity and the correspondence between their general solutions. Using the model with a minimally coupled scalar field and a constant potential as an example, we demonstrate how to obtain the general solutions of the corresponding models in the Jordan frame.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

biogeochemistry↗

Validation of the Integrated Medical Model Using Historical Space Flight Data

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes Monte Carlo methodologies to predict the occurrence of medical events, utilization of resources, and clinical outcomes during space flight. Real-world data may be used to demonstrate the accuracy of the model. For this analysis, IMM predictions were compared to data from historical shuttle missions, not yet included as model source input. Initial goodness of fit test-ing on International Space Station data suggests that the IMM may overestimate the number of occurrences for three of the 83 medical conditions in the model. The IMM did not underestimate the occurrence of any medical condition. Initial comparisons with shuttle data demonstrate the importance of understanding crew preference (i.e., preferred analgesic) for accurately predicting the utilization of re-sources. The initial analysis demonstrates the validity of the IMM for its intended use and highlights areas for improvement.

Kerstman, Eric L.↗

An integrated integral projection model ( IPM 2 ) to disentangle size‐structured harvest and natural mortality

Abstract Body size is one of the most important traits governing individual‐level demographic rates and modulating population‐level processes. Multiple size‐dependent demographic rates can simultaneously change population structure, so distinguishing their individual contributions to overall population dynamics remains a challenge. Disentangling size‐dependent harvest rates from other demographic rates is critical for assessing the impact of removal on populations of invasive species. Inference about invasive populations can be difficult, however, as observations are often collected opportunistically as part of removal programs, rather than experimentally designed. Yet accurate inference is essential for understanding the feasibility of population suppression and optimising management decisions. We develop an integrated integral projection model (IPM 2 ) that leverages the strengths of the integrated population model and integral projection model to enable inference about complex, size‐structured demographic rates from imperfect observations. We apply the IPM 2 in the context of invasive European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a species for which individual body size strongly regulates both the observation‐generating process and latent, population dynamics. The IPM 2 facilitates the distinct estimation of green crab size‐structured harvest and natural mortality rates, parameters for which no explicit data is collected and that are unidentifiable in component datasets of the integrated population model. The model represents how the green crab population changes over time, providing the first estimates of size‐structured abundance of this high‐priority species. By forecasting the stable size distribution and equilibrium population size under varying removal efforts, we demonstrate that extremely high levels of removal effort can reduce the equilibrium green crab population size. Yet these high mortality rates also shift the stable size distribution and increase the equilibrium abundance of smaller crabs, since size‐selective removal alters intraspecific interactions. The ecological outcome of this shift in size structure will be variable, as green crab size modulates only some of its interactions with other species. These results highlight the value of the IPM 2 framework for inferring complex population dynamics with information needs that outpace information in individual observational datasets, providing a path forward for accurate assessment of conservation programs.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

Risk Analysis↗

Integrated Biophysical Modeling and Image Analysis: Application to Neuro-Oncology

Central nervous system (CNS) tumors come with vastly heterogeneous histologic, molecular, and radiographic landscapes, rendering their precise characterization challenging. The rapidly growing fields of biophysical modeling and radiomics have shown promise in better characterizing the molecular, spatial, and temporal heterogeneity of tumors. Integrative analysis of CNS tumors, including clinically acquired multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) and the inverse problem of calibrating biophysical models to mpMRI data, assists in identifying macroscopic quantifiable tumor patterns of invasion and proliferation, potentially leading to improved (a) detection/segmentation of tumor subregions and (b) computer-aided diagnostic/prognostic/predictive modeling. This article presents a summary of (a) biophysical growth modeling and simulation,(b) inverse problems for model calibration, (c) these models' integration with imaging workflows, and (d) their application to clinically relevant studies. We anticipate that such quantitative integrative analysis may even be beneficial in a future revision of the World Health Organization (WHO) classification for CNS tumors, ultimately improving patient survival prospects.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗