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At least 415 records · Page 23

Combining Eddy Covariance Towers, Field Measurements, and the MEMS 2 Ecosystem Model Improves Confidence in the Climate Impacts of Bioenergy With Carbon Capture and Storage

ABSTRACT Carbon dioxide removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) are required if the effects of climate change are to be reversed over the next century. However, BECCS demands extensive land use change that may create positive or negative radiative forcing impacts upstream of the BECCS facility through changes to in situ greenhouse gas fluxes and land surface albedo. When quantifying these upstream climate impacts, even at a single site, different methods can give different estimates. Here we show how three common methods for estimating the net ecosystem carbon balance of bioenergy crops established on former grassland or former cropland can differ in their central estimates and uncertainty. We place these net ecosystem carbon balance forcings in the context of associated radiative forcings from changes to soil N 2 O and CH 4 fluxes, land surface albedo, embedded fossil fuel use, and geologically stored carbon. Results from long term eddy covariance measurements, a soil and plant carbon inventory, and the MEMS 2 process‐based ecosystem model all agree that establishing perennials such as switchgrass or mixed prairie on former cropland resulted in net negative radiative forcing (i.e., global cooling) of −26.5 to −39.6 fW m −2 over 100 years. Establishing these perennials on former grassland sites had similar climate mitigation impacts of −19.3 to −42.5 fW m −2 . However, the largest climate mitigation came from establishing corn for BECCS on former cropland or grassland, with radiative forcings from −38.4 to −50.5 fW m −2 , due to its higher plant productivity and therefore more geologically stored carbon. Our results highlight the strengths and limitations of each method for quantifying the field scale climate impacts of BECCS and show that utilizing multiple methods can increase confidence in the final radiative forcing estimates.

Falvo, Grant [Department of Plant, Soil and Microb↗

The impacts of rising vapour pressure deficit in natural and managed ecosystems

Abstract An exponential rise in the atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) is among the most consequential impacts of climate change in terrestrial ecosystems. Rising VPD has negative and cascading effects on nearly all aspects of plant function including photosynthesis, water status, growth and survival. These responses are exacerbated by land–atmosphere interactions that couple VPD to soil water and govern the evolution of drought, affecting a range of ecosystem services including carbon uptake, biodiversity, the provisioning of water resources and crop yields. However, despite the global nature of this phenomenon, research on how to incorporate these impacts into resilient management regimes is largely in its infancy, due in part to the entanglement of VPD trends with those of other co‐evolving climate drivers. Here, we review the mechanistic bases of VPD impacts at a range of spatial scales, paying particular attention to the independent and interactive influence of VPD in the context of other environmental changes. We then evaluate the consequences of these impacts within key management contexts, including water resources, croplands, wildfire risk mitigation and management of natural grasslands and forests. We conclude with recommendations describing how management regimes could be altered to mitigate the otherwise highly deleterious consequences of rising VPD.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analyzing the Multiscale Impacts of Implementing Energy-Efficient HVAC Improvements Through Energy Audits and Economic Input–Output Analysis

Abstract Heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems are usually an industry’s highest consumer of energy, most of which goes toward space cooling in buildings. Industrial energy-efficiency audits not only benefit manufacturers but also generate significant economic and environmental benefits to localities, states, and the nation. This article analyzes the micro- and macro scale impacts of implementing energy-efficient HVAC systems by integrating the industrial building energy data with the macroeconomic regional economic flow model. Micro-scale data include 10 years of historical energy, cost, and carbon dioxide savings achieved from energy-efficient HVAC implementation offered to manufacturers through industrial energy audits. The data were integrated into the macroeconomic modeling framework to illuminate the cascading regional economic impacts of implementing energy-efficient HVAC recommendations in manufacturing facilities. Results show that if recommendations had been implemented throughout all manufacturers in the region, $656 M energy costs would have been directly saved, 7.8 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions would have been avoided, and 4387 jobs could have been created, resulting in a total annual economic impact of $899 M stemming from direct, indirect, and induced impacts. The results offer insight into how industrial energy systems can be designed and provide models for how communities can accomplish a net-zero society.

Energy & Fuels↗

Genetic modification of the shikimate pathway to reduce lignin content in switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) significantly impacts plant microbiomes

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is considered a sustainable biofuel feedstock, given its fast-impact growth, low input requirements, and high biomass yields. Improvements in bioenergy conversion efficiency of switchgrass could be made by reducing its lignin content. Engineered switchgrass that expresses a bacterial 3-dehydroshikimate dehydratase (QsuB) has reduced lignin content and improved biomass saccharification due to the rerouting of the shikimate pathway towards the simple aromatic protocatechuate at the expense of lignin biosynthesis. However, the impacts of this QsuB trait on switchgrass microbiome structure and function remain unclear. To address this, wild-type and QsuB-engineered switchgrass were grown in switchgrass field soils, and samples were collected from inflorescences, leaves, roots, rhizospheres, and bulk soils for microbiome analysis. We investigated how QsuB expression influenced switchgrass-associated fungal and bacterial communities using high-throughput Illumina MiSeq amplicon sequencing of ITS and 16S rDNA. Compared to wild-type, QsuB-engineered switchgrass hosted different microbial communities in roots, rhizosphere, and leaves. Specifically, QsuB-engineered plants had a lower relative abundance of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF). Additionally, QsuB-engineered plants had fewer Actinobacteriota in root and rhizosphere samples. These findings may indicate that changes in the plant metabolism impact both AMF and Actinobacteriota similarly or potential interactions between AMF and the bacterial community. This study enhances understanding of plant-microbiome interactions by providing baseline microbial data for developing beneficial bioengineering strategies and by assessing nontarget impacts of engineered plant traits on the plant microbiome.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Impact Modeling and Testing of Pouch and Prismatic Cells

Understanding battery response under impact is critical to improve the safety of electrified vehicles. Nevertheless, predicting the impact behaviors of batteries is not straightforward since a battery cell usually contains hundreds of thin layers with dramatically different material properties and multiple physical processes occur simultaneously during cell deformation. Here we utilized both empirical tests and numerical models to capture the failure process of pouch and prismatic cells in various impact scenarios. In each test, a cell was hit once by an indenter dropped from a certain height. During which the cell penetration, loading force, voltage and temperature were monitored to characterize the cell’s response. Meanwhile, numerical models were developed to capture the coupled mechanical, electrical, electrochemical and thermal responses of batteries. In these models, the cell bulk was treated as a homogeneous part to achieve computational efficiency required by large-scale simulations, and it was represented by the geologic cap model that allows both shear and compaction deformation. Simulation results showed agreement with experimental data in essential features of cell behaviors during impact. Details of the test setup, model development and cell failure behaviors are presented in this paper. Additionally, capabilities, limitations and future improvement of the battery safety modeling are discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Impacts of Stochastic Mixing in Idealized Convection-Permitting Simulations of Squall Lines

This study investigates impacts of altering subgrid-scale mixing in “convection-permitting” kilometer-scale horizontal-grid-spacing (Δ h ) simulations by applying either constant or stochastic multiplicative factors to the horizontal mixing coefficients within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. In quasi-idealized 1-km Δ h simulations of two observationally based squall-line cases, constant enhanced mixing produces larger updraft cores that are more dilute at upper levels, weakens the cold pool, rear-inflow jet, and front-to-rear flow of the squall line, and degrades the model’s effective resolution. Reducing mixing by a constant multiplicative factor has the opposite effect on all metrics. Completely turning off parameterized horizontal mixing produces bulk updraft statistics and squall-line mesoscale structure closest to an LES “benchmark” among all 1-km simulations, although the updraft cores are too undilute. The stochastic mixing scheme, which applies a multiplicative factor to the mixing coefficients that varies stochastically in time and space, is employed at 0.5-, 1-, and 2-km Δ h . It generally reduces midlevel vertical velocities and enhances upper-level vertical velocities compared to simulations using the standard mixing scheme, with more substantial impacts at 1- and 2-km Δ h compared to 0.5-km Δ h . Further, the stochastic scheme also increases updraft dilution to better agree with the LES for one case, but has less impact on the other case. Stochastic mixing acts to weaken the cold pool but without a significant impact on squall-line propagation. It also does not affect the model’s overall effective resolution unlike applying constant multiplicative factors to the mixing coefficients.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Agriculture, bioenergy, and water implications of constrained cereal trade and climate change impacts

International trade increases connections and dependencies between countries, weaving a network of global supply chains. Agricultural commodity trade has implications for crop producers, consumers, crop prices, water and land uses, and other human systems. Interconnections among these systems are not always easy to observe when external impacts penetrate across multiple sectors. To better understand the interactions of non-linear and globally coupled agricultural-bioenergy-water systems under the broader economy, we introduce systematic perturbations in two dimensions, one human (restrictions on agricultural trade) and the other physical (climate impacts on crop yields). We explore these independently and in combination to distinguish the consequences of individual perturbation and interactive effects in long-term projections. We show that most regions experience larger changes in cereal consumption due to cereal import dependency constraints than due to the impacts of climate change on agricultural yields. In the scenario where all regions ensure an import dependency ratio of zero, the global trade of cereals decreases ~50% in 2050 compared to the baseline, with smaller decreases in cereal production and consumption (4%). The changes in trade also impact water and bioenergy: global irrigation water consumption increases 3% and corn ethanol production decreases 7% in 2050. Climate change results in rising domestic prices and declining consumption of cereal crops in general, while the import dependency constraint exacerbates the situation in regions which import more cereals in the baseline. The individual and interactive effects of trade perturbations and climate change vary greatly across regions, which are also affected by the regional ability to increase agricultural production through intensification or extensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Selection of Vadose Zone Flow and Transport Properties with Gravel Fraction Corrections for the Hanford Site Composite Analysis and Cumulative Impact Evaluation

This environmental calculation file (ECF) is a compilation of hydrologic and radiological/chemical properties to be used for the updated Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA) and Cumulative Impact Evaluation (CIE) vadose zone (VZ) modeling. The CA will provide an all-pathways dose projection to a hypothetical future member of the public from all planned low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities and potential contributions from all other projected end-state sources of radioactive material left at the Hanford Site following site closure. Its primary purpose is to support the decision-making process of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under DOE O 435.1 Chg 1, Radioactive Waste Management, related to managing low-level waste disposal facilities at the Hanford Site. The CIE evaluates the effects of cleanup decisions regarding groundwater quality in the Hanford Site Central Plateau (DOE/RL-2018-69, Cumulative Impact Evaluation Technical Approach Document). Due to the complexity and large number of waste sites in source operable units (OUs), the computational tools used for the CIE must be capable of representing a range of site conditions and source terms in the VZ while also efficiently computing the impact that cleanup decisions have on the underlying aquifer. Waste-site proximity between and within source OUs has resulted in contaminants commingling in the vadose and saturated zones in complex ways. Plume commingling requires cleanup decisions to be evaluated considering the surrounding waste sites and existing groundwater contamination, therefore demonstrating the need to evaluate cumulative impacts from the VZ to groundwater.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION OF IMPACT AND ABRASION EROSIONS AT LOW VELOCITIES AND COMPARISON TO CFD SIMULATIONS

Wear and erosion damage of materials due to interaction of the surface with solid particles is a major issue in various industries. This phenomenon is common in mining, and oil and gas production, causing damages worth millions of dollars annually. Erosion is becoming a critical issue in renewable technologies as well such as concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) systems. In some CSP systems, solid particles can be used to absorb solar energy and enhance the heat storage. However, these particles may cause significant amount of wear to system components while falling down the power tower at high temperatures. This damage can be costly, and therefore, investigating solid particle erosion in CSP systems is of utmost importance. In collaboration with Sandia National Laboratories, the erosion durability of particle-based Generation 3 (GEN3) CSP system are being investigated both experimentally and numerically. In order to develop models to predict the life time of such systems, erosion under low temperature and low particle impact velocity conditions are investigated. Impact erosion and abrasion erosion experiments are conducted for low velocity and low temperature conditions for various candidate particles and containment materials. The impact erosion testing is conducted for three different containment material including Stainless Steel 316, special refractory material, and Inconel 740H with CARBOBEAD HSP 40/70 ceramic particles and UNIWEST 430 silica quartz erodent particles. All this data will enable us to better model the erosion behavior of these materials and provides a data base to investigate erosion at high temperatures experienced in CSP systems. At low temperatures and low velocities the softer refractory material exhibited greater erosion by an order-of-magnitude when compared to the harder Inconel 740H and Stainless Steel 316 materials. The overall erosion ratio for all the candidate materials was of the order of 10 -7 kg/kg. We also investigated wear in containment materials from sliding of particles over the surfaces at very low angles, also referred to as abrasion. For the velocities expected in a typical 1MW CSP plant, visible surface wear was noted, but the overall mass loss per unit surface area was found to be dependent on the hardness of the containment material tested. In this manuscript, we also present Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations and erosion prediction of low velocity impact erosion. These results are compared with the experimental data to evaluate the ability of available erosion models for predicting erosion under these conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Impacts of Price Formation Efforts Considering High Renewable Penetration Levels and System Resource Adequacy Targets

Future markets with very high penetrations of renewable energy could have many low- to zero-cost periods, which would reduce energy revenues for the generation fleet. This can impact the ability of resources that are needed for long-term reliability to recover operating and capital costs. This paper explores the impact of an alternative pricing mechanism, relaxed minimum pricing, on revenue sufficiency on existing and future resource mixes, including those with high penetrations of wind and solar. This study evaluates eight scenarios encompassing three different sensitivity categories: (1) one alternative pricing mechanism versus traditional LMP pricing, (2) high versus low renewable penetration levels, and (3) using a resource mix that has been adjusted to a preset resource adequacy target versus one that contains a full set of resources. Results show renewable penetration has a greater impact on pricing and resulting profits than does the adjusted resource mix, the two pricing methods have modest variations in profits, and prices under the higher renewable penetration case were higher than under low renewable penetration. These conclusions are not intended to be direct predictions for future outcomes but rather to lead to additional research on the impacts of pricing on investment incentives and future resource adequacy targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

COVID-19 and the Power Sector in Southeast Asia: Impacts and Opportunities

The COVID-19 pandemic is unique among the range of threats encountered over the last century, and its specific impacts do not necessarily resemble those of other disasters. In the near term, the pandemic is causing demand shocks, workforce impacts, supply chain complications, and a global, economic contraction with long-term consequences as yet unknown. In contrast, with natural disasters the principal impacts are more acute. These include infrastructure destruction, displaced populations, and often localized economic impact; however, the long-term response to both of these threats–pandemics and destructive forces of nature–requires similar approaches to building short-term and long-term resilience that prepare power sectors for safe and reliable operation during times of disruption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Drop impact tester development for spent nuclear fuel vibration integrity study

The accumulated damage of SNF rod is defined as the integrated damage induced by the SNF assembly harmonic vibrations and SNF assembly & cask system contact interactions induced transient shocks, experienced by SNF rods during normal conditions of transportation (NCT). The CIRFT technology has provided means to resolve/understand the SNF rod harmonic vibration reliability issues associated with maximum axial clad tubing stress induced by SNF inertia related dynamic bending loading. However, the SNF rod integrity in association with the transient shock loads during NCT through dynamic contact interactions among SNF assembly cannot be investigated systematically through CIRFT technology alone. Thus, the proposed drop impact tester development become a viable tool for SNF system transient shock effect investigation. Furthermore, the transient shocks induced loading mode is normally perpendicular to the SNF rod axial orientation, i.e., in a transverse orientation to the SNF rod. To proceed with such loading mode investigation, a new device, “SNF Drop Impact Tester” that provides the transverse impact shock load onto a SNF rod through a free-drop projectile was developed in FY20 for SNF System Vibration Reliability Investigation; where the SNF system contact impact intensity can be calibrated accordingly with projectile weight and projectile head geometry. This newly developed research tool can further provide a detailed understanding about the effect of dynamic contact-interaction loadings; and combined harmonic vibration and transient shock loading modes on the fatigue damage evolution of the HBU SNF under NCT.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Evaluation of Structural Lattices for a Davis Gun Earth Penetrator Impact Experiment

The advanced materials team investigated the use of additively manufactured metallic lattice structures for mitigating impact response in a Davis gun earth penetrator impact experiment. High-fidelity finite element models were developed and validated with quasistatic experiments. These models were then used to simulate the response of such lattices when subjected to the acceleration loads expected in the Davis gun experiment. Results reveal how the impact mitigation performance of lattices can change drastically at a certain relative density. Based on these observations, an experiment deck was designed to probe the response of lattices with different relative densities during the Davis gun phase 2 shots. The expected performance of these lattices is predicted before testing based on simulation results. The results of the Davis gun phase 2 shots are expected to provide data which will be used to assess the predictive capability of the finite element simulations in such a complex impact environment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Oregon Roadway CSZ Liquefaction and Landslide Impact Screening Analysis

The roadway transportation routes and the surrounding environments in Oregon will be subject to ground acceleration and potential associated deformation due to the propagation of waves of energy during a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake. Linear features such as highways may be subject to partial or complete disruption of their function resulting from ground deformations at and along the roadway. A potential source of these disruptions associated with a CSZ event are landslides and liquefaction in the soils along and beneath the highways and local roadways. The construction of the Oregon roadway system and urban development have occurred largely along the banks of the rivers—those along the Pacific coast, and along the valleys throughout the Oregon Coast Range and Cascade Mountains. These locations also represent areas where landslides and liquefaction have occurred historically, or may potentially occur in the future, presenting a significant vulnerability for the roadway system and dependent post-CSZ earthquake emergency response and recovery effort. Many of the Oregon areas with landslide- and liquefaction-prone soils have the potential to impact roadway transportation routes after a major earthquake causing delays in establishing routes to transport emergency response personnel and resources to impacted areas and communities. This report presents methods used to project the impacts that CSZ earthquake-induced landslides and liquefaction may have on roadways across Oregon. First, this report presents an approach for estimating the risk of landslides to Oregon roadways, and determining approximate reopening times. Second, this report presents a similar approach for estimating the risk of liquefaction-induced ground displacements to roadway pavements, also resulting in approximate reopening times for roadway segments. The outcomes of these two ground failure analyses serve as inputs to a broader analysis of CSZ earthquake impacts to Oregon’s surface transportation system and its ability to support post-disaster response and recovery activities, as part of the Oregon Transportation Systems Regional Resiliency Assessment Program project (CISA 2021).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Water and Climate Impacts on ERCOT Long-Term Systems Assessment

Water and climate change pose many potential challenges to the electric power system. Substantial water is withdrawn every day to support thermoelectric power generating unit operations, and changes to water supply have the potential to affect generation dispatch. Climate change can accelerate growing demand for electricity, which can necessitate additional generating capacity, often in locations with limited water supply. Drought conditions also threaten thermoelectric power plant operations due to streamflow and reservoir levels dropping below intake structures, or water temperatures exceeding a power plants' permitted operating conditions. Here we explore how future climate change might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning in Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) using a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on the future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation for four future climate projections. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated for these scenarios. These climate impacts are applied to five alternative electricity futures in an electricity capacity expansion model that projects future generation and transmission capacity additions in ERCOT. Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on future generation and transmission capacity needs, with temperature-driven increases in peak and average load resulting in 5-15 GW additional generating capacity and up to 1 GW additional transmission capacity. Additional capacity is a diverse mix of PV, natural gas, and wind, depending on the makeup of economic, policy and technology assumptions. Climate impacts increase total system costs 2-5%, while the marginal cost of energy and emissions are not affected substantially by climate change effects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Puerto Rico Demand Response Impact and Forecast Tool (PR-DRIFT) - Beta Version [Slides]

Due to high fossil fuel imports, high electricity rates, an unreliable electricity grid, and 100% renewable electricity goals, demand response can play a crucial role for the Puerto Rico electricity grid. The Puerto Rico Demand Response Impact and Forecast Tool (PR-DRIFT) is a spreadsheet-based tool in which users can estimate the potential impacts of demand response, energy efficiency, and VRE and storage adoption in Puerto Rico from 2021 through 2040. The tool includes projections for solar, wind, and battery adoption based on released RFPs and energy targets (including Act-17 2019) to generate a projected net load profile for each hour through 2040. Based on user inputs and default assumptions, the tool also projects load profile impacts of demand response and energy efficiency, and is specifically focused on highlighting projected demand response technical potential. This demand response technical potential can be used by local utilities, regulators, program administrators, or researchers to help design demand response programs for larger impact.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Probabilistic Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy and Storage Requirements for NM's Energy Transition Act (SAND Report)

This report provides a study of the potential impacts of climate change on intermittent renewable energy resources, battery storage, and resource adequacy in Public Service Company of New Mexico’s Integrated Resource Plan for 2020 – 2040. Climate change models and available data were first evaluated to determine uncertainty and potential changes in solar irradiance, temperature, and wind speed in NM in the coming decades. These changes were then implemented in solar and wind energy models to determine impacts on renewable energy resources in NM. Results for the extreme climate-change scenario show that the projected wind power may decrease by ~13% due to projected decreases in wind speed. Projected solar power may decrease by ~4% due to decreases in irradiance and increases in temperature in NM. Uncertainty in these climate-induced changes in wind and solar resources was accommodated in probabilistic models assuming uniform distributions in the annual reductions in solar and wind resources. Uncertainty in battery storage performance was also evaluated based on increased temperature, capacity fade, and degradation in round-trip efficiency. The hourly energy balance was determined throughout the year given uncertainties in the renewable energy resources and energy storage. The loss of load expectation (LOLE) was evaluated for the 2040 No New Combustion portfolio and found to increase from 0 days/year to a median value of ~2 days/year due to potential reductions in renewable energy resources and battery storage performance and capacity. A rank-regression analyses revealed that battery round-trip efficiency was the most significant parameter that impacted LOLE, followed by solar resource, wind resource, and battery fade. An increase in battery storage capacity to ~25,000 – 30,000 MWh from a baseline value of ~14,000 MWh was required to reduce the median value of LOLE to ~0.2 days/year with consideration of potential climate impacts and battery degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensor Impact Evaluation and Verification Technical Advisory Group Meeting Minutes

This report provides the technical advisory group meeting minutes and summary of detailed discussions for future development of sensor impact evaluations and verifications. Methods for sensor configuration/deployment have critical impacts on energy-efficient building control and thermal comfort. However, traditional sensor techniques for building operation and fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) are not optimal in terms of energy efficiency and thermal comfort, and their global effects are not thoroughly investigated. In an effort to address and overcome this limitation, a 3 year project, Sensor Impact Evaluation and Verification, was proposed. The multi-laboratory team—the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)—is conducting early-stage R&D to provide technical supports and guidelines for sensor design in building/HVAC systems to optimize building energy use, FDD, thermal comfort, and grid efficiency. The overall goal of this project is to develop a framework that enables quantitative evaluation of the impact of sensors on building HVAC control, FDD, and consequently, building energy efficiency and thermal comfort.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗