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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Coupled 2D-3D finite element method for analysis of a skin panel with a discontinuous stiffener

This paper describes a computationally efficient analysis method which was used to predict detailed stress states in a typical composite compression panel with a discontinuous hat stiffener. A global-local approach was used. The global model incorporated both 2D shell and 3D brick elements connected by newly developed transition elements. Most of the panel was modeled with 2D elements, while 3D elements were employed to model the stiffener flange and the adjacent skin. Both linear and geometrically nonlinear analyses were performed on the global model. The effect of geometric nonlinearity induced by the eccentric load path due to the discontinuous hat stiffener was significant. The local model used a fine mesh of 3D brick elements to model the region at the end of the stiffener. Boundary conditions of the local 3D model were obtained by spline interpolation of the nodal displacements from the global analysis. Detailed in-plane and through-the-thickness stresses were calculated in the flange-skin interface near the end of the stiffener.

Wang, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Ozone Budgets from a Global Chemistry/Transport Model and Comparison to Observations from POLARIS

The objective of the Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) field mission was to obtain data to better characterize the summertime seasonal decrease of ozone at mid to high latitudes. The decrease in ozone occurs mainly in the lower stratosphere and is expected to result from in situ chemical destruction. Instrumented balloons and aircraft were used in POLARIS, along with satellites, to measure ozone and chemical species which are involved with stratospheric ozone chemistry. In order to close the seasonal ozone budget, however, ozone transport must also be estimated. Comparison to a global chemistry and transport model (CTM) of the stratosphere indicates how well the summertime ozone loss processes are simulated and thus how well we can predict the ozone response to changing amounts of chemical source gases. Moreover, the model gives insight into the possible relative magnitude of transport contributions to the seasonal ozone decline. Initial comparison to the Goddard CTM, which uses transport winds and temperatures from meteorological data assimilation, shows a high ozone bias in the model and an attenuated summertime ozone loss cycle. Comparison of the model chemical partitioning and ozone catalytic loss rates to those derived from measurements shows fairly close agreement both at ER-2 altitudes (20 km) and higher. This suggests that the model transport is too active in resupplying ozone to the high latitude region, although chemistry failings cannot be completely ruled out. Comparison of ozone and related species will be shown along with a full diagnosis of the model ozone budget and its possible sources of error.

Kawa, S. Randolph↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Assessment of the Skill of GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecasts

The seasonal forecast skill of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office coupled global climate model (CGCM) is evaluated based on an ensemble of 9-month lead forecasts for the period 1993 to 2010. The results from the current version (V2) of the CGCM consisting of the GEOS-5 AGM coupled to the MOM4 ocean model are compared with those from an earlier version (V1) in which the AGCM (the NSIPP model) was coupled to the Poseidon Ocean Model. It was found that the correlation skill of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts is generally better in V2, especially over the sub-tropical and tropical central and eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the improvement in skill in V2 mainly comes from better forecasts of the developing phase of ENSO from boreal spring to summer. The skill of ENSO forecasts initiated during the boreal winter season, however, shows no improvement in terms of correlation skill, and is in fact slightly worse in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). The degradation of skill is found to be due to an excessive ENSO amplitude. For V1, the ENSO amplitude is too strong in forecasts starting in boreal spring and summer, which causes large RMSE in the forecast. For V2, the ENSO amplitude is slightly stronger than that in observations and V1 for forecasts starting in boreal winter season. An analysis of the terms in the SST tendency equation, shows that this is mainly due to an excessive zonal advective feedback. In addition, V2 forecasts that are initiated during boreal winter season, exhibit a slower phase transition of El Nino, which is consistent with larger amplitude of ENSO after the ENSO peak season. It is found that this is due to weak discharge of equatorial Warm Water Volume (WWV). In both observations and V1, the discharge of equatorial WWV leads the equatorial geostrophic easterly current so as to damp the El Nino starting in January. This process is delayed by about 2 months in V2 due to the slower phase transition of the equatorial zonal current from westerly to easterly.

GMAO↗
NASA NTRS1992

Regional climates in the GISS global circulation model - Synoptic-scale circulation

A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs) is their perceived inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global-scale change, and it is these regional-scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human-environmental response. For large areas of the extratropics, the local climate is controlled by the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, and it is the purpose of this paper to evaluate the synoptic-scale circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. A methodology for validating the daily synoptic circulation using Principal Component Analysis is described, and the methodology is then applied to the GCM simulation of sea level pressure over the continental United States (excluding Alaska). The analysis demonstrates that the GISS 4 x 5 deg GCM Model II effectively simulates the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation over the United States. The modes of variance describing the atmospheric circulation of the model are comparable to those found in the observed data, and these modes explain similar amounts of variance in their respective datasets. The temporal behavior of these circulation modes in the synoptic time frame are also comparable.

Hewitson, B.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Intercomparison of hydrologic processes in global climate models

In this report, we address the intercomparison of precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and surface hydrologic forcing (P-E) for 23 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) general circulation models (GCM's) including relevant observations, over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The intercomparison includes global and hemispheric means, latitudinal profiles, selected area means for the tropics and extratropics, ocean and land, respectively. In addition, we have computed anomaly pattern correlations among models and observations for different seasons, harmonic analysis for annual and semiannual cycles, and rain-rate frequency distribution. We also compare the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on local climate using the Koeppen climate classification scheme.

Lau, W. K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Interlaminar stress analysis at the skin-stiffener interface of a grid-stiffened composite panel

Results are presented of an analysis of the interlaminar stress components at the skin-wrap, skin-core, and wrap-core interfaces for an advanced-concept stiffened panel using a global/local finite element procedure. The procedure consists of a global model of two-dimensional shell elements that is used to design a grid-stiffened panel with blade-type stiffeners, a local model of three-dimensional solid elements that is used to compute interlaminar stress components, and a scheme devised to assign displacement boundary conditions for the local model that are derived from displacement and rotation data of a few nodes of the global model. The interlaminar stresses for this panel design were found to be well below typical tensile normal and shearing strengths of a graphite-epoxy material.

Wiggenraad, J. F. M.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of Clouds, Radiation, and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models Using Global Weather States Derived from ISCCP-H Cloud Property Data

A clustering methodology is applied to cloud optical depth cloud top pressure (TAU-PC) histograms from the new, 1-degree resolution, ISCCP-H dataset, to derive an updated global Weather State (WS) dataset. Then, PC-TAU histograms from current-climate CMIP6 model simulations are assigned to the ISCCP-H WSs along with their concurrent radiation and precipitation properties, to evaluate model cloud, radiation, and precipitation properties in the context of the Weather States. The new ISCCP-H analysis produces WSs that are very similar to those previously found in the lower resolution ISCCP-D dataset. The main difference lies in the splitting of the ISCCP-D thin stratocumulus WS between the ISCCP-H shallow cumulus and stratocumulus WSs, which results in the reduction by one of the total WS number. The evaluation of the CMIP6 models against the ISCCP-H Weather States, shows that, in the ensemble mean, the models are producing an adequate representation of the frequency and geographical distribution of the WSs, with measurable improvements compared to the WSs derived for the CMIP5 ensemble. However, the frequency of shallow cumulus clouds continues to be underestimated, and, in some WSs the good agreement of the ensemble mean with observations comes from averaging models that significantly overpredict and underpredict the ISCCP-H WS frequency. In addition, significant biases exist in the internal cloud properties of the model WSs, such as the model underestimation of cloud fraction in middle-top clouds and secondarily in midlatitude storm and stratocumulus clouds, that result in an underestimation of cloud SW cooling in those regimes.

Clouds↗
NASA NTRS2016

Comparison of Radiative Energy Flows in Observational Datasets and Climate Modeling

This study examines radiative flux distributions and local spread of values from three major observational datasets (CERES, ISCCP, and SRB) and compares them with results from climate modeling (CMIP3). Examinations of the spread and differences also differentiate among contributions from cloudy and clear-sky conditions. The spread among observational datasets is in large part caused by noncloud ancillary data. Average differences of at least 10Wm(exp -2) each for clear-sky downward solar, upward solar, and upward infrared fluxes at the surface demonstrate via spatial difference patterns major differences in assumptions for atmospheric aerosol, solar surface albedo and surface temperature, and/or emittance in observational datasets. At the top of the atmosphere (TOA), observational datasets are less influenced by the ancillary data errors than at the surface. Comparisons of spatial radiative flux distributions at the TOA between observations and climate modeling indicate large deficiencies in the strength and distribution of model-simulated cloud radiative effects. Differences are largest for lower-altitude clouds over low-latitude oceans. Global modeling simulates stronger cloud radiative effects (CRE) by +30Wmexp -2) over trade wind cumulus regions, yet smaller CRE by about -30Wm(exp -2) over (smaller in area) stratocumulus regions. At the surface, climate modeling simulates on average about 15Wm(exp -2) smaller radiative net flux imbalances, as if climate modeling underestimates latent heat release (and precipitation). Relative to observational datasets, simulated surface net fluxes are particularly lower over oceanic trade wind regions (where global modeling tends to overestimate the radiative impact of clouds). Still, with the uncertainty in noncloud ancillary data, observational data do not establish a reliable reference.

Raschke, Ehrhard↗
NASA NTRS1982

Predictability of ultralong waves in global and hemispheric quasi-geostrophic barotropic models

A global quasi-geostrophic barotropic model, including orography, zonal forcing, and frictional dissipation, is compared to two hemispheric models, one with antisymmetric equatorial boundary conditions and one with symmetric boundary conditions. The stationary solutions in the global model and the hemispheric models are found to be different, because the hemispheric models lack either the symmetric or antisymmetric waves, and because the nonlinear feedbacks are much larger in the hemispheric models. Time-dependent calculations show that the hemispheric models can excite anomalous Rossby waves and can produce erroneous short-range forecasts in middle latitudes. It is concluded that global models are preferred for making both short-range and long-range forecasts for middle latitudes.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1987

A study of carbon monoxide distribution determinations for a global transport model

A system of programs which model the chemistry and transport of carbon monoxide and methane in the Earth's atmosphere on a global scale was installed onto the NASA-Langley central scientific computer network. This system, the GLOBAL system, consists of a user-friendly set of procedural files which allow for simplified pre-processing, execution, and post-processing for all program elements. The package includes procedures for obtaining the NMC meteorological data, calculating the vertical winds to satisfy mass conservation, determining the boundary layer, and executing the transport/chemical model for carbon monoxide. In addition, plotting, saving to tape, and reading from tape routines were developed. Final modifications to the subprograms for processing the input data for the transport/chemistry model have improved these data to more accurately reflect true atmospheric conditions. The transfer of the transport/chemistry model from the NCAR CRAY system to the NASA-Langley VPS-32 system was completed. The problems encountered during this process and their resolutions are discussed.

Peters, Leonard K.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Global Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of the Solar Corona

Under this contract, we have continued our investigations of the large scale structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere using global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. These computations have also formed the basis for studies of coronal mass ejections (CMES) using realistic coronal configurations. We have developed a technique for computing realistic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) computations of the solar corona and inner heliosphere. To perform computations that can be compared with specific observations, it is necessary to incorporate solar observations into the boundary conditions. We have used the Wilcox Solar Observatory synoptic maps (collected during a solar rotation by daily measurements of the line-of-sight magnetic field at central meridian) to specify the radial magnetic field (B,) at the photosphere. For the initial condition, we use a potential magnetic field consistent with the specified distribution of B, at the lower boundary, and a wind solution consistent with the specified plasma density and temperature at the solar surface. Together this initial condition forms a (non-equilibrium) approximation of the state of the solar corona for the time-dependent MHD computation. The MHD equations are then integrated in time to steady state. Here we describe solutions relevant to a recent solar eclipse, as well as Ulysses observations. We have also developed a model configuration of solar minimum, useful for studying CME initiation and propagation.

Linker, Jon A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Total Ozone Prediction: Stratospheric Dynamics

The correct prediction of total ozone as a function of latitude and season is extremely important for global models. This exercise tests the ability of a particular model to simulate ozone. The ozone production (P) and loss (L) will be specified from a well- established global model and will be used in all GCMs for subsequent prediction of ozone. This is the "B-3 Constrained Run" from M&MII. The exercise mostly tests a model stratospheric dynamics in the prediction of total ozone. The GCM predictions will be compared and contrasted with TOMS measurements.

Jackman, Charles H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Aerosol Lidar Ratios Over Ocean Using Constrained Retrievals and A Global Aerosol Model

The current NASA Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) algorithms assign one lidar ratio (i.e., extinction-to-backscatter ratio; LR) value globally for each of the seven tropospheric aerosol types. In a future data products release, the CALIPSO project aims to improve these algorithms through the development of regional and seasonal LR climatologies. In this work, aerosol LRs are inferred through Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) backscatter profiles constrained by collocated aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. This analysis is subsampled for those profiles that are cloud-free and contain only one CALIOP-classified aerosol type (e.g., marine). The CALIOP profiles are then collocated with aerosol volume fractions obtained through Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulations. In this presentation, we show that the twelve-year (June 2006-August 2018) mean spatial distributions of inferred aerosol LRs for CALIOP-classified marine aerosols correspond inversely with patterns of GOCART sea salt volume fraction (SSVF). For example, smaller SSVFs (< 65%) and larger LRs (> 55 sr), are found near land masses. This is indicative of the influence of over-land aerosols (e.g., pollution and biomass burning smoke). In the remote oceans (i.e., regions likely less impacted by non-sea salt aerosols), larger SSVFs (> 95%) and smaller LRs (< 25 sr) are found. The developed relationship between the GOCART SSVFs and MODIS AOD constrained LRs (polynomial fit intersect values of ~56 sr for SSVF of 0% and ~21 sr for SSVF of 100%) is used to produce model-assisted climatological LR maps on seasonal scales. Additionally, we show maps of inferred LRs from constrained retrievals using the CALIPSO Ocean Derived Column Optical Depth (ODCOD) product and comparisons with those from the MODIS analyses. The technique demonstrated in this study not only benefits CALIPSO in the near-term, but similar methods can be applied to future spaceborne elastic backscatter lidars with collocated passive sensors, such as those associated with the upcoming NASA Atmosphere Observing System (AOS).

Travis Toth↗
NASA NTRS1997

Measurement of Geopotential Heights by GPS Radio Occultation

Geopotential heights of constant pressure surfaces are retrieved from global positioning system (GPS) radio occultation data. In order to assess accuracy a subset of data obtained by GPS/MET during spring 1995 and summer 1995 are compared to the output of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global model. The root-mean-square measurement error is 20 m throughout the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Furthermore, the ECMWF global model contains enhanced errors in the southeast Pacific. In probing the data for potential utility in climate studies, a Bayesian interpolation technique is used to map the geopotential height fields in the upper troposphere during the summer. Despite limitations of the GPS/MET data set the global average 300-mbar geopotential height over a 2-week period in summer 1995 is determined with an accuracy of 7 m. By obtaining greater coverage and partially resolving synoptic variability, a future constellation of 16 orbiting receivers could obtain global average geopotential height estimates in the upper troposphere with an accuracy of 1 m each day. Accuracy would be somewhat worse for regional studies, except in the tropics where synoptic variability is depressed.

Leroy, Stephen S.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Simulating Observed Ozone Loss in the Northern Hemisphere Winter

Ozone amounts observed at high Northern latitudes in late winter and early spring have been relatively very low in four of the last six years. On the face of it, this decline appears similar to that observed in the Antarctic in the mid-1980s in spite of the fact that the abundance of stratospheric chlorine is currently steady or decreasing. In order to predict the extent to which this change represents a trend, and to understand what combination of factors produces the low ozone, we need to accurately simulate these observations with models. In this presentation, we focus on the winter of 1999-2000, which exhibited some of the lowest ozone ever recorded in the Northern hemisphere. It also contained the largest-ever assembled set of atmospheric measurements and modeling activities in the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment/Third European Stratospheric Experiment on Ozone (SOLVE/THESEO). We use SOLVE/THESEO observations in comparison with the Goddard 3-D global model of stratospheric chemistry and transport to explore the model's capability to simulate the evolution of ozone and other species through the winter. We will discuss advective transport and mixing, chlorine activation, and denitrification, which are key processes to accurately simulating wintertime ozone. Preliminary results show that, although the model tracer transport and chlorine activation compare relatively well with observations, the magnitude of observed ozone loss is difficult to achieve in the model. Calculated ozone loss is sensitive to denitrification, which presents a major challenge to parameterization in a global model. Simulation requirements and uncertainties will be evaluated.

Kawa, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Predicting Decade-to-Century Climate Change: Prospects for Improving Models

Recent research has led to a greatly increased understanding of the uncertainties in today's climate models. In attempting to predict the climate of the 21st century, we must confront not only computer limitations on the affordable resolution of global models, but also a lack of physical realism in attempting to model key processes. Until we are able to incorporate adequate treatments of critical elements of the entire biogeophysical climate system, our models will remain subject to these uncertainties, and our scenarios of future climate change, both anthropogenic and natural, will not fully meet the requirements of either policymakers or the public. The areas of most-needed model improvements are thought to include air-sea exchanges, land surface processes, ice and snow physics, hydrologic cycle elements, and especially the role of aerosols and cloud-radiation interactions. Of these areas, cloud-radiation interactions are known to be responsible for much of the inter-model differences in sensitivity to greenhouse gases. Recently, we have diagnostically evaluated several current and proposed model cloud-radiation treatments against extensive field observations. Satellite remote sensing provides an indispensable component of the observational resources. Cloud-radiation parameterizations display a strong sensitivity to vertical resolution, and we find that vertical resolutions typically used in global models are far from convergence. We also find that newly developed advanced parameterization schemes with explicit cloud water budgets and interactive cloud radiative properties are potentially capable of matching observational data closely. However, it is difficult to evaluate the realism of model-produced fields of cloud extinction, cloud emittance, cloud liquid water content and effective cloud droplet radius until high-quality measurements of these quantities become more widely available. Thus, further progress will require a combination of theoretical and modeling research, together with intensified emphasis on both in situ and space-based remote sensing observations.

Somerville, Richard C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

American Meteorological Society (AMS) - The Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Data and Accessibility

The AM Short Course on The Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data and accessibility will be held on January 11, 2009 preceding the 89th Annual Meeting in Phoenix, Arizona. Preliminary programs, registration, hotel, and general information will be posted on the AMS Web site in mid-September 2008. Retrospective-analyses (or reanalyses) have been established as an important tool in weather and climate research over the last decade. As computer power increases, the data assimilation and modeling systems improve and become more advanced, the input data quality increases and so reanalyses become more reliable. In 2008, NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office began producing a new reanalysis called the Modem Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The initial data from the reanalysis has been made available to the community and should be complete through 30 years (1979-present) by Fall of 2009. MERRA has taken advantage of the advancement of computing resources to provide users more data than previously available. The native spatial resolution is nominally 1/2 degrees and the surface two dimensional data are one hourly frequency. In addition to the meteorological analysis data, complete mass, energy and momentum budget data and also stratospheric data are provided. The eventual data holdings will exceed 150Tb. In order to facilitate user accessibility to the data, it will be stored in online hard drives (not tape storage) and available through several portals. Subsetting tools will also be available to allow users to tailor their data requests. The goals of this short course are to provide hands on users of reanalyses instruction on MERRA systems and also interactive experience with the online data and access tools. The course is intended for students and research scientists who will be actively interested in accessing and applying MERRA data in their weather, climate or applications work. The course has three parts. There will be an overview of the MERRA system, the validation of the system and the native data format. Second, Instructors will provide examples of weather and climate data analysis using various software packages (primarily GrADS) as well as the online access tools for subsetting and download, as well as visualization (e.g. Giovanni and Google Earth). This will also include examples on changing the data format to fit user's preferences and also to regrid the data for comparisons to other reanalyses and observational data. Lastly, there will he time set aside for participants to have hands on access to the data and software while interacting with the instructors and other developers. The course convener is Dr. Michael Bosilovich, NASA GSFC Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). He will be joined by several GMAO, Goddard Earth Science Data and information Services Center (GES DISC) and Software Integration and Visualization Office (SIVO) staff.

daSilva, Arlindo↗
NASA NTRS1981

A stochastic-dynamic model for global atmospheric mass-field statistics

Global atmospheric mass field error correlations based on satellite observations and on numerical forecasts show strong and systematic latitude dependence. A model for the latitude dependent spatial correlation structure of mass field forecast errors is derived from dynamical considerations. Three methods of solution were tested. In the first method, the equation was solved by expansion in spherical harmonics, and the correlation function was computed analytically using the expansion coefficients. In the second method, the finite difference equivalent of the equation was solved using a fast poisson solver. The correlation function was computed using stratified sampling of the individual realizations. In the third method, a higher order equation was derived, and solved directly in finite differences by two successive applications of the fast poisson solver. The three methods were compared for accuracy and efficiency, and the third method was chosen as clearly superior.

Ghil, M.↗