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At least 415 records · Page 23

Determination of a Generic Human Error Probability Distribution, Part 1: A Dynamic Formulation of SPAR-H

In almost all major nuclear power plants (NPP) events include a significant human error component. As an example, in Fukushima Daiichi (2011) nuclear meltdown, the human actions related to the high-pressure injection cooling strongly affected accident evolution. Furthermore, in the Three Mile Island accident (1979) (which was initiated by a stuck open valve and thus was triggered a loss of coolant accident) the unit operators made decisions based upon false assumptions that contributed negatively to the accident. Given these premises, the ability to accurately model human interactions with plant evolution and, in particular, dynamically calculate human error probability (HEP) plays a major role in a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Human reliability analysis (HRA) identifies and models the causes of human errors, and quantifies HEP by applying different methodologies. HRA methods identify errors and reflect on the understanding of error-prone people and systems. There are a number of HRA methods available that assist in identifying the vulnerabilities in the system and provide guidance in determining the HEP. HEP is the probability of a human failure event (HFE), and quantification of HEPs under various situations is utilized in PRA of large complex systems. One of the more prominent HRA methods is the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method that was developed to estimate HEPs for the use in the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) PRA models employed in U.S. NPPs. SPAR-H is implemented in U.S. NPPs by regulators at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to determine the HEP based on expert estimation through the use of calculation worksheets. In SPAR-H, the nominal HEPs (NHEPs) are multiplied by performance shaping factors (PSF) multiplier values to obtain the overall error probability. PSFs encompass the human components, individual characteristics, their environment, and aspects of the task. With PSFs, the goal is to capture all factors that can affect human performance. In SPAR-H there are eight PSFs used, each having respective levels corresponding to multipliers: Available Time, Stress/Stressors, Complexity, Experience/Training, Procedures, Ergonomics/Human Machine Interface, Fitness for Duty, and Work Processes. The PSF multipliers indicate enhanced, nominal, or degraded human performance. The SPAR-H method estimates the HEP through multiplying a NHEP with PSFs. Hence, SPAR-H is a traditional HRA method that assesses human performance at a fixed, or static, point in time. In a dynamic HRA framework, human performance is assessed on a continuous time basis. SPAR-H can be used within a dynamic PRA framework through the use of simulation and stochastic models. The goal of dynamic HRA is to build a more realistic model of the human-system interaction to enhance calculation of reliability, risk and safety analysis. The progression of events in dynamic SPAR-H considers that some PSFs may experience gradual change, while other change can be sudden due to individualistic differences or rapid plant status changes. The PSF changes are caused by contextual changes in the scenario. For example, as more time passes, the realization that a task should be completed sooner may cause the operator more stress. In another example, a sudden relay of information about sickness of a family member may alter the operator's general stress level and fitness for duty. Each PSF has a different dynamic nature; PSFs like stress and complexity change more quickly over the course of a task than experience and training. While the experience of an operator changes over the course of attaining the objective, the amount that this added experience changes the HEP is very minimal. In contrast, the stress, complexity, and procedures PSFs may change quite a bit over the course of task completion.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Domain-adversarial graph neural networks for Λ hyperon identification with CLAS12

Machine learning methods and in particular Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have revolutionized many tasks within the high energy physics community. Particularly in the realm of jet tagging, GNNs and domain adaptation have been especially successful. However, applications with lower energy events have not received as much attention. Here, we report on the novel use of GNNs and a domain-adversarial training method to identify Λ hyperon events with the CLAS12 experiment at Jefferson Lab. The GNN method we have developed increases the purity of the Λ yield by a factor of 1.95 and by 1.82 using the domain-adversarial training. This work also provides a good benchmark for developing event tagging machine learning methods for the Λ and other channels at CLAS12 and other experiments, such as the planned Electron Ion Collider.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A Prototyping Environment for Research on Human-Machine Interfaces in Process Control: Use of Microsoft WPF for Microworld and Distributed Control System Development

Operators of critical processes, such as nuclear power production, must contend with highly complex systems, procedures, and regulations. Developing human-machine interfaces (HMIs) that better support operators is a high priority for ensuring the safe and reliable operation of critical processes. Human factors engineering (HFE) provides a rich and mature set of tools for evaluating the performance of HMIs, but the set of tools for developing and designing HMIs is still in its infancy. Here we propose that Microsoft Windows Presentation Foundation (WPF) is well suited for many roles in the research and development of HMIs for process control.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A Heterogeneity-Aware Task Scheduler for Spark

Big data processing systems such as Spark are employed in an increasing number of diverse applications-such as machine learning, graph computation, and scientific computing-each with dynamic and different resource needs. These applications increasingly run on heterogeneous hardware, e.g., with out-of-core accelerators. However, big data platforms do not factor in the multi-dimensional heterogeneity of applications and hardware. This leads to a fundamental mismatch between the application and hardware characteristics, and the resource scheduling adopted in big data platforms. For example, Hadoop and Spark consider only data locality when assigning tasks to nodes, and typically disregard the hardware capabilities and suitability to specific application requirements. In this paper, we present RUPAM, a heterogeneity-aware task scheduling system for big data platforms, which considers both task-level resource characteristics and underlying hardware characteristics, as well as preserves data locality. RUPAM adopts a simple yet effective heuristic to decide the dominant scheduling factor (e.g., CPU, memory, or I/O), given a task in a particular stage. Our experiments show that RUPAM is able to improve the performance of representative applications by up to 62.3% compared to the standard Spark scheduler.

Computer Science↗

Machine learning-assisted ultrafast flash sintering of high-performance and flexible silver–selenide thermoelectric devices

Flexible thermoelectric generators (TEGs) have shown immense potential for serving as a power source for wearable electronics and the Internet of Things. A key challenge preventing large-scale application of TEGs lies in the lack of a high-throughput processing method, which can sinter thermoelectric (TE) materials rapidly while maintaining their high thermoelectric properties. Herein, we integrate high-throughput experimentation and Bayesian optimization (BO) to accelerate the discovery of the optimum sintering conditions of silver–selenide TE films using an ultrafast intense pulsed light (flash) sintering technique. Due to the nature of the high-dimensional optimization problem of flash sintering processes, a Gaussian process regression (GPR) machine learning model is established to rapidly recommend the optimum flash sintering variables based on Bayesian expected improvement. For the first time, an ultrahigh-power factor flexible TE film (a power factor of 2205 μW m -1 K -2 with a zT of 1.1 at 300 K) is demonstrated with a sintering time less than 1.0 second, which is several orders of magnitude shorter than that of conventional thermal sintering techniques. Further, the films also show excellent flexibility with 92% retention of the power factor (PF) after 10 3 bending cycles with a 5 mm bending radius. In addition, a wearable thermoelectric generator based on the flash-sintered films generates a very competitive power density of 0.5 mW cm -2 at a temperature difference of 10 K. This work not only shows the tremendous potential of high-performance and flexible silver–selenide TEGs but also demonstrates a machine learning-assisted flash sintering strategy that could be used for ultrafast, high-throughput and scalable processing of functional materials for a broad range of energy and electronic applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Quantifying Groundwater Response and Uncertainty in Beaver‐Influenced Mountainous Floodplains Using Machine Learning‐Based Model Calibration

Abstract Beavers ( Castor canadensis ) alter river corridor hydrology by creating ponds and inundating floodplains, and thereby improving surface water storage. However, the impact of inundation on groundwater, particularly in mountainous alluvial floodplains with permeable gravel/cobble layers overlain by a soil layer, remains uncertain. Numerical modeling across various floodplain structures considers topographic and sediment complexity and multidirectional flow, linking inundation to groundwater response. This study develops a model‐data integration workflow to address uncertainty in groundwater response to beaver‐induced inundations in a mountainous alluvial floodplain in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Uncertain factors include seasonal hydrologic dynamics, hydraulic conductivities, floodplain structures, and meteorological forcings. We employed an ensemble of groundwater models, based on geophysical and hydrologic data, with machine learning‐based calibration using a neural density estimator. This allowed us to quantify the vertical flux from the soil layer to the permeable gravel bed, the down‐valley underflow within the gravel bed, and their ratios. Results show a significant increase in the vertical flux relative to down‐valley underflow, from 2 during dry pond periods to 20 during wet periods, serving as an analogy for conditions without and with beaver ponds. The study highlights the influence of floodplain structure on groundwater storage, water balance, and water quality impacted by beaver ponds. A thick gravel bed layer, with a large down‐valley underflow, minimizes the effect of beaver‐induced inundation on water quality. We emphasize the need for field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure and improved characterization of evapotranspiration changes to reduce uncertainty in groundwater response. Plain Language Summary Beavers change the flow of water in river corridors by creating ponds, expanding wetlands, and flooding floodplains. This increases surface water area, promotes plant growth, and enhances biodiversity. However, the impact of this flooding on groundwater flow is not well understood, especially in mountainous areas with gravel layers where water moves easily beneath soil. In this study, we used numerical modeling to investigate how beaver ponds influence groundwater in a mountainous floodplain of the Upper Colorado River Basin. We adapted a machine learning method to validate our numerical models using multiple field data sets. Our findings show that beaver ponds significantly increase vertical water flow from the soil to the gravel during wet periods, compared to when the ponds are fully drained. The study also highlights the importance of floodplain structure in controlling both water flow in gravel layers along the river direction and vertical flow from the soil to the gravel with the presence of beavers. To reduce uncertainty in groundwater response, we emphasize the need for more field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure, hydraulic properties, and evapotranspiration changes. Key Points Floodplain structures and hydraulic conductivities are important for groundwater response with beaver ponds in mountainous floodplains Large down‐valley underflow in permeability‐stratified floodplains reduces beaver‐induced impacts on groundwater storage and water quality Machine learning‐based model calibration methods are effective for estimating posterior distributions of groundwater model parameters

Wang, Lijing↗

A Systems Biology Approach to Identify Essential Epigenetic Regulators for Specific Biological Processes in Plants

Upon sensing developmental or environmental cues, epigenetic regulators transform the chromatin landscape of a network of genes to modulate their expression and dictate adequate cellular and organismal responses. Knowledge of the specific biological processes and genomic loci controlled by each epigenetic regulator will greatly advance our understanding of epigenetic regulation in plants. To facilitate hypothesis generation and testing in this domain, we present EpiNet, an extensive gene regulatory network (GRN) featuring epigenetic regulators. EpiNet was enabled by (i) curated knowledge of epigenetic regulators involved in DNA methylation, histone modification, chromatin remodeling, and siRNA pathways; and (ii) a machine-learning network inference approach powered by a wealth of public transcriptome datasets. We applied GENIE3, a machine-learning network inference approach, to mine public Arabidopsis transcriptomes and construct tissue-specific GRNs with both epigenetic regulators and transcription factors as predictors. The resultant GRNs, named EpiNet, can now be intersected with individual transcriptomic studies on biological processes of interest to identify the most influential epigenetic regulators, as well as predicted gene targets of the epigenetic regulators. We demonstrate the validity of this approach using case studies of shoot and root apical meristem development.

root apical meristem↗

L-PBF of 4340 Low Alloy Steel: Influence of Feedstock Powder, Layer Thickness, and Machine Maintenance

Laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) is an additive manufacturing process in which a 3D part is fabricated by fusing metal powder together layer by layer. L-PBF has many variables which contribute to part performance, which include powder properties, process parameters, and machine condition. L-PBF is a relatively expensive process compared to traditional manufacturing. Feedstock material and build time are two major factors which contribute to the cost of the L-PBF process. Various methods were explored as ways to reduce the cost of 4340 steel parts manufactured by L-PBF, including fabricating the parts with thicker powder layers and expanding the allowable powder particle size range. In addition, the effects of powder porosity and recoater condition on producing consistent material properties in the manufactured part were also explored. The experimental results showed that allowing a larger powder particle size range and thicker powder layers was a possible method for reducing the cost of L-PBF-fabricated 4340 steel parts without significantly degrading the mechanical properties. Methods for measuring the allowable loose particle porosity will be emphasized in this report. Furthermore, the study also revealed the importance of the recoater condition because variation in the machine condition can negatively influence the part quality.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Exploring the Psychometrics of Common Post-Scenario Human Factors Questionnaires of Workload, Situation Awareness, and Perceived Difficulty

Abstract: The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program has the primary mission of sustaining operation of the existing commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) through a multi-pathway approach in conducting research and development (R&D). In this effort, the role of human factors engineering (HFE) has been an integral in ensuring new digital upgrades that are part of the overall main control room modernization strategy for various U.S. NPPs optimize human-system performance and do not introduce new human failure modes. In this process, testing and evaluation of concept (i.e., prototype) human machine interfaces (HMIs) are done in operator-in-the-loop studies at various stages of the HFE modification process, such as during design and verification and validation (V&V) [1]. During these studies, licensed operators go through select scenarios using a testbed, such as a full-scale simulator or at a NPP’s training simulator, to identify potential usability issues and provide general design feedback regarding the new digital HMIs. Human-system performance is measured and evaluated through a range of objective and self-report measures that capture aspects of plant performance, task performance, workload, situation awareness, and anthropometric and ergonomic concerns [2]. The use of post-scenario questionnaires is an acceptable method for gathering measures of workload and situation awareness. To this end, the NASA-Task Load Index (TLX) [e.g., 3, 4, & 5] and Situation Awareness Rating Technique (SART) [e.g., 6 & 7] are common standardized questionnaires used for evaluating workload and situation awareness, respectively. When combined, these questionnaires consist of a total of 15 questions, each using a different rating scale. Debriefs are also done through interviews with operators to gather design insight after each scenario. Since operator- and training simulator-time is limited, a concern during this post-scenario period of operator-in-the-loop studies is the limited time available to run scenarios, administer post-scenario questionnaires, and debrief within the allotted simulator time. To address this potential problem, this paper explores the psychometric characteristics of NASA-TLX, SART, and a common one-question post-scenario usability questionnaire (i.e., the single ease question – SEQ [8]) in effort to inform future development of a condensed questionnaire that captures aspects of workload and situation awareness. This exploratory work uses data from four different operator-in-the-loop studies completed under prior LWRS operator-in-the-loop studies. Findings from this paper should support future development of a consolidated questionnaire that may be used in operator-in-the-loop studies, when time is compressed, that conforms to the HFE scientific and regulatory requirements set for NPP control room modernization.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Automated discovery of a robust interatomic potential for aluminum

Machine learning, trained on quantum mechanics (QM) calculations, is a powerful tool for modeling potential energy surfaces. A critical factor is the quality and diversity of the training dataset. Here we present a highly automated approach to dataset construction and demonstrate the method by building a potential for elemental aluminum (ANI-Al). In our active learning scheme, the ML potential under development is used to drive non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations with time-varying applied temperatures. Whenever a configuration is reached for which the ML uncertainty is large, new QM data is collected. The ML model is periodically retrained on all available QM data. The final ANI-Al potential makes very accurate predictions of radial distribution function in melt, liquid-solid coexistence curve, and crystal properties such as defect energies and barriers. We perform a 1.3M atom shock simulation and show that ANI-Al force predictions shine in their agreement with new reference DFT calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Refining Jets for CMS Run 3 using Fast Simulation

As the LHC moves into its high-luminosity phase, the CMS experiment must handle more complex data collected at much higher rates. While the Geant4-based simulation application (FullSim) provides highly accurate simulation to complement real data, FullSim’s intensive consumption of computing resources becomes an increasing liability as the rates increase, while faster tools offer an advantage. The fast MC production application (FastSim) delivers a complete simulation with a factor of 10 speedup over FullSim, but introduces inaccuracies in some observables. A specialized refinement method, Fast Perfekt, employs machine learning to improve the accuracy of FastSim. An initial report of this work focused on the refinement of jet flavor tagging observables. This article presents an update on the refinement, focusing on PUPPI jets with Run 3 data-taking conditions. Refinement is extended to include jet transverse momentum as well as its propagation to missing transverse momentum. A gridbased framework and real-time monitoring system have been developed to facilitate optimization and scaling of the refinement to a large number of target variables.

Güngördü, Açelya Deniz [Istanbul Tech. U.]↗

Cy-Phy ADS: Cyber Physical Anomaly Detection Framework for EV Charging Systems

Today’s large-scale Electric Vehicle (EV) infrastructures are heavily dependent on information communication technologies to maintain their operation and to support communication within sub-system components as well as the outside world. These technologies are vulnerable to various cyber and physical threats. Timely identification and mitigation of these threats are critical for improving human safety, avoiding economic losses, and preventing catastrophic system failures. By addressing this, our work presents a ResNet Autoencoder (AE) based Cyber-Physical Anomaly Detection System (Cy-Phy ADS) for detecting anomalies in EV Controller Area Network (CAN) protocol communication. It consists of four main components: Cyber-Physical Feature Extractor, ResNet AE-based Anomaly Detection Framework, Cyber-Physical Health Metric (CPHM), and Visualization Dashboard. The presented framework was trained and tested using CAN data collected from the EV charging system testbed at the Idaho National Laboratory. The presented Cy-Phy ADS compared against six widely used unsupervised anomaly detection algorithms: One Class Support Vector Machine (OCSVM), Variational Autoencoder (VAE), LSTM Autoencoder (LSTM AE), Isolation Forest (IForest), Principle Component Analysis (PCA) and Local Outlier Factor (LOF). Here the presented approach showed the highest accuracy among the compared methods. Further, the proposed approach showed comparable performance in terms of precision, F1, and False positive rate. It also showed the lowest training and inference time compared to the neural network-based baseline algorithms compared against with. Additionally, the Cy-Phy ADS has advantages such as unsupervised training, the ability to provide a holistic metric for system health characterization, and non-linear feature extraction.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

The (Un)reasonable Effectiveness of Neural Network in Cherenkov Calorimetry

We report a greater than factor of two improvement in the hadronic energy resolution of a simulated Cherenkov calorimeter by estimating the energy with machine learning over traditional techniques. The prompt signal formation and energy threshold properties of Cherenkov radiation provide identifiable features that machine learning techniques can exploit to produce a superior model for energy reconstruction. We simulated a quartz-fiber calorimeter via the GEANT4 framework to study the reconstruction techniques in single events. We compared the machine learning-based reconstruction performance to the traditional simple sum of signal and dual-readout techniques that use both Cherenkov and scintillation signals. We describe why this game-changing approach to Cherenkov hadron calorimetry excels and our plans for a dedicated beam test to validate these findings with a fast, radiation-hard hadron calorimeter prototype.

Akchurin, Nural↗

Statistical Treatment of Convolutional Neural Network Superresolution of Inland Surface Wind for Subgrid-Scale Variability Quantification

Abstract Machine learning models have been employed to perform either physics-free data-driven or hybrid dynamical downscaling of climate data. Most of these implementations operate over relatively small downscaling factors because of the challenge of recovering fine-scale information from coarse data. This limits their compatibility with many global climate model outputs, often available between ∼50- and 100-km resolution, to scales of interest such as cloud resolving or urban scales. This study systematically examines the capability of a type of superresolving convolutional neural network (SR-CNNs) to downscale surface wind speed data over land from different coarse resolutions (25-, 48-, and 100-km resolution) to 3 km. For each downscaling factor, we consider three convolutional neural network (CNN) configurations that generate superresolved predictions of fine-scale wind speed, which take between one and three input fields: coarse wind speed, fine-scale topography, and diurnal cycle. In addition to fine-scale wind speeds, probability density function parameters are generated through which sample wind speeds can be generated, accounting for the intrinsic stochasticity of wind speed. For assessing generalization to new data, CNN models are tested on regions with different topography and climate that are unseen during training. The evaluation of superresolved predictions focuses on subgrid-scale variability and the recovery of extremes. Models with coarse wind and fine topography as inputs exhibit the best performance when compared with other model configurations, operating across the same downscaling factor. Our diurnal cycle encoding results in lower out-of-sample generalizability when compared with other input configurations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Stress intensity factor models using mechanics-guided decomposition and symbolic regression

The finite element method can be used to compute accurate stress intensity factors (SIFs) for cracks with complex geometries and boundary conditions. In contrast, handbook solutions act as surrogate SIF models that provide significantly faster evaluation times. However, the development of conventional surrogate SIF models relies on manual development based on low-order parameterizations. This limits surrogate model accuracy and generalizability. Here, in this paper, we develop a framework for the automated development of mechanics-guided handbook SIF solutions by using interpretable machine learning via genetic programming for symbolic regression (GPSR). Formalizing the mechanics-based approach of Raju and Newman, SIF training data is decomposed into multiple subsets. This decomposition enables parallel GPSR model development of subfunctions, each of which accounts for specific geometrical corrections with respect to a known analytical model. Using this mechanics-based approach with GPSR allows for equations to be learned with improved accuracy and reduced complexity relative to the Raju Newman equations while maintaining the inherent interpretability of mathematical expressions. In this paper, we present equations that match the complexity of the Raju Newman equations while having reduced error, as well as equations with similar errors and reduced complexity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Accurate Machine Learning for Predicting the Viscosities of Deep Eutectic Solvents

Deep eutectic solvents (DESs) are emerging as environmentally friendly designer solvents for mass transport and heat transfer processes in industrial applications; however, the lack of accurate tools to predict and thus control their viscosities under both a range of environmental factors and formulations hinders their general application. While DESs may serve as designer solvents, with nearly unlimited combinations, this unfortunately makes it experimentally infeasible to comprehensively measure the viscosities of all DESs of potential industrial interest. To assist in the design of DESs, we have developed several new machine learning (ML) models that accurately and rapidly predict the viscosities of a diverse group of DESs at different temperatures and molar ratios using, to date, one of the most comprehensive data sets containing the properties of over 670 DESs over a wide range of temperatures (278.15–385.25 K). Three ML models, including support vector regression (SVR), feed forward neural networks (FFNNs), and categorical boosting (CatBoost), were developed to predict DES viscosity as a function of temperature and molar ratio and contrasted with multilinear and two-factor polynomial regression baselines. Further, quantum chemistry-based, COSMO-RS-derived sigma profile (σ-profile) features were used as inputs for the ML models. The CatBoost model is excellent at externally predicting DES viscosity, as indicated by high R 2 (0.99) and low root-mean-square-error (RMSE) and average absolute relative deviations (AARD) (5.22%) values for the testing data sets, and 98% of the data points lie within the 15% of AARD deviations. Furthermore, SHapley additive explanation (SHAP) analysis was employed to interpret the ML results and rationalize the viscosity predictions. The result is an ML approach that accurately predicts viscosity and will aid in accelerating the design of appropriate DESs for industrial applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

BWR modernization project: installation of a new digital feedwater control system - 295

A European BWR plant carried out a relevant and pioneering modernization project regarding the Feedwater and Feed Pump Turbine Control System, replacing the legacy analogic control with the new General Electric MarkVIe digital system. This digital instrumentation and control modernization, motivated by obsolescence, had a great impact on the main control room and on the plant operation. Tecnatom collaborated with the nuclear power plant in the project performing the following activities: early installation of the system in the full scope and classroom simulators, Human Factors Engineering (HFE) Verification and Validation (V and V), Simulation Assisted Engineering (SAE), design and implementation of cyber secure communication with the Plant Process Computer (PPC), operating procedures modification and plant operators training. Those activities contributed to the success of the project that was completed during the refueling outage as planned. Scheduling HFE verification before the design freeze allowed the plant to modify the Human Machine Interface (HMI) to comply with the standards and increase safety without overcharging the project. SAE resulted in the reduction of costs and time during the system commissioning through the detection of discrepancies and improvements in the control, covering different plant scenarios. All the activities carried out in the simulators before the implementation of the system in the plant contributed to validate it and to build confidence in the new control among the plant personnel. New digital system communication interfaces with the PPC saved cable laying works and allowed future expansions. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Can machine learning accelerate process understanding and decision‐relevant predictions of river water quality?

Abstract The global decline of water quality in rivers and streams has resulted in a pressing need to design new watershed management strategies. Water quality can be affected by multiple stressors including population growth, land use change, global warming, and extreme events, with repercussions on human and ecosystem health. A scientific understanding of factors affecting riverine water quality and predictions at local to regional scales, and at sub‐daily to decadal timescales are needed for optimal management of watersheds and river basins. Here, we discuss how machine learning (ML) can enable development of more accurate, computationally tractable, and scalable models for analysis and predictions of river water quality. We review relevant state‐of‐the art applications of ML for water quality models and discuss opportunities to improve the use of ML with emerging computational and mathematical methods for model selection, hyperparameter optimization, incorporating process knowledge into ML models, improving explainablity, uncertainty quantification, and model‐data integration. We then present considerations for using ML to address water quality problems given their scale and complexity, available data and computational resources, and stakeholder needs. When combined with decades of process understanding, interdisciplinary advances in knowledge‐guided ML, information theory, data integration, and analytics can help address fundamental science questions and enable decision‐relevant predictions of riverine water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗