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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Trade can buffer climate-induced risks and volatilities in crop supply

Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme events, posing challenges to food security. Corn, a staple crop for billions, is particularly vulnerable to heat stress, a primary driver of yield variability. While many studies have examined climate impact on average corn yields, little attention has been given to the climate impact on production volatility. This study investigates the future volatility and risks associated with global corn supply under climate change, evaluating the potential benefits of two key adaptation strategies: irrigation and market integration. A statistical model is employed to estimate corn yield response to heat stress and utilize NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate data to project future production volatility and risks of substantial yield losses. Three metrics are introduced to quantify these risks: Sigma (σ), the standard deviation of year-on-year yield change, which reflects overall yield volatility; Rho (ρ), the risk of substantial loss, defined as the probability of yield falling below a critical threshold; and Beta (β), a relative risk coefficient that captures the volatility of a region's corn production compared to the globally integrated market. The analysis reveals a concerning trend of increasing year-on-year yield volatility (σ) across most regions and climate models. This volatility increase is significant for key corn-producing regions like Brazil and the United States. While irrigated corn production exhibits a smaller rise in volatility, suggesting irrigation as a potential buffer against climate change impacts, it is not a sustainable option as it can cause groundwater depletion. On the other hand, global market integration reduces overall volatility and market risks significantly with less sustainability concerns. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of a multidimensional approach to adaptation in the food sector. While irrigation can benefit individual farmers, promoting global market integration offers a broader solution for fostering resilience and sustainability across the entire food system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Origin of multifractality in solar wind turbulence: the role of current sheets

ABSTRACT In this work, a multifractal framework is proposed to investigate the effects of current sheets in solar wind turbulence. By using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis coupled with surrogate methods and volatility, two solar wind magnetic field time series are investigated, one with current sheets and one without current sheets. Despite the lack of extreme-events intermittent bursts in the current sheet-free series, both series are shown to be strongly multifractal, although the current sheet-free series displays an almost linear behaviour for the scaling exponent of structure functions. Long-range correlations are shown to be the main source of multifractality for the series without current sheets, while a combination of heavy-tail distribution and non-linear correlations is responsible for multifractality in the series with current sheets. The multifractality in both time series is formally shown to be associated with an energy-cascade process using the p-model.

Gomes, Leonardo F.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Key Distribution Applicability to Smart Grid Cybersecurity Systems

To meet the increasing demand for electricity and to have a more reliable and resilient electric grid against conventional and extreme events, grid modernization is more crucial now than ever before. This will require the development and deployment of devices that provide advanced communication capabilities. The overall efficiency, reliability, and resilience of the smart grid will be inextricably linked to the exchange of information between these devices. Unfortunately, the increased information flow will increase the potential attack surface and introduce new vulnerabilities. While a smarter grid will depend critically on information flow, these benefits will be accrued only if that information can be protected. Nowadays, information is secured in smart grids primarily through cryptography. However, with the increasing number of sophisticated attacks as well as the increasing computational power, the security of the “classical” cryptographic algorithms is threatened. Quantum information science offers solutions to this problem, specifically quantum key distribution (QKD), which provides a means for the generation and secure distribution of symmetric cryptographic keys. The security of QKD stems ultimately from the very nature of quantum physics. In this paper, we investigate the applicability of QKD to the various smart grid sectors and specific use cases. We have identified 18 smart grid use cases of interest for QKD suitability together with 7 QKD factors used for the assessment of the various use cases. For each use case, the impact to security of the loss of confidentiality, integrity, and/or availability is specified. In addition, the suitability of QKD is assessed for each use case with respect to multiple factors.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Review on Building Resilient Power Networks: Emphasizing Adjacent Span Dynamics

This research article presents a comprehensive review of resilience in power transmission and distribution systems, focusing on key studies that examine structural integrity, mechanical stress distribution, and system reliability under various conditions. The article synthesizes findings across multiple studies, covering assumptions, system topologies, methodologies, and challenges that affect resilience in these networks. Particular attention is given to identifying studies that address the influence of adjacent spans and tower--line interactions, as these factors play a crucial role in the stress distribution and structural dynamics within poles, towers, and transmission lines. In addition to identifying critical factors contributing to system vulnerability, this review emphasizes the importance of continued research to better understand and mitigate risks from extreme events, such as high winds combined with ice storms. By consolidating knowledge on current challenges and future needs, this work outlines future directions to advance resilience studies and contributes to ongoing efforts to strengthen power transmission and distribution networks, reducing disruptions in electricity supply and improving overall system resilience in an evolving climate landscape.

Ahmad, Tawsif [Pacific Northwest National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Machine Learning Workflow to Classify Mobile Home Parks at Scale

Understanding the built environment is essential to the overall study of population dynamics, grid infrastructure, emergency response, among others. In the United States there are multiple classifications for buildings within the built environment such as residential, signifying family homes while commercial buildings consist of apartments or larger structures which are multi-purpose. While there is a high level of understanding of where these aforementioned structures are located, there is a third class of structures, mobile home parks (MHP) which have been under-represented in the literature despite there being an estimated 2.7 million of them within the United States. Research has shown that individuals who reside in MHP are at higher risk to extreme events due to their location and structural integrity of residence. Attention must now turn to identifying MHP at scale to help first responders and policy makers understand where these at risk populations reside. To address for this gap, we develop a novel methodology to infer MHP at scale based off morphologies derived at a building level. Here, we show that across 3 million buildings in 6 states within the United States it is possible to identify MHP with 83% accuracy. This novel approach to identify MHP from other structures within the built environment using a machine learning approach provides a new tool to leverage in relation to helping at-risk populations.

Stipek, Clinton [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
DOE OSTI2020

Toward Quantifying Vulnerabilities in Critical Infrastructure Systems

Modern society is increasingly dependent on the stability of a complex system of interdependent infrastructure sectors. Vulnerability in critical infrastructures (CIs) is defined as a measure of system susceptibility to threat scenarios. Quantifying vulnerability in CIs has not been adequately addressed in the literature. This paper presents ongoing research on how the authors model CIs as network-based models and propose a set of metrics to quantify vulnerability in CI systems. The size and complexity of the CIs make this a challenging task. These metrics could be used for planning and efficient decision-making during extreme events.

Devineni, Pravallika↗
DOE OSTI2022

Defensive Islanding to Enhance the Resilience of Distribution Systems Against Cyber-Induced Failures

The extensive integration of communication, computation, and control technologies into cyber-physical power systems (CPPSs) has increased the vulnerabilities of CPPSs to cyberattacks. This calls for developing solutions that assess and reduce the impacts of cyber-induced failures on CPPSs. This paper proposes a defensive islanding strategy to isolate impacted parts of the CPPS and form self-sufficient islanded grids with an objective of minimum load curtailment. The defensive islanding aims to split a power system into smaller grids to improve its resilience against a potential extreme event. A clustering approach that leverages the hierarchical spectral clustering method is utilized for the optimal defensive islanding. The proposed approach captures the fragility behavior and loading conditions of power system components due to cyber-induced failures. A graphical-based coupling framework is used to map the impacts of cyber failures into operation of power system components. The proposed method is demonstrated on a modified 33-node distribution feeder system integrated with distributed energy resources. The amount of load curtailment and radiality constraints have been used to evaluate the performance of the proposed clustering strategies. The results show the capability of the proposed algorithm to create islands considering the cyber-induced failures for enhanced resilience.

cyber-induced failures↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Power Distribution System Resilience with Fusion-GNN: A Dynamic Graph Representation Learning Approach

This paper explores the applications of Fusion Graph Neural Network (FuGNN) on power distribution systems. FuGNN effectively models dynamic networks with evolving topology and features. Applied to power system network reconfiguration, FuGNN demonstrates its feasibility in optimizing switch configurations to minimize unserved loads and operational costs during extreme events. Additionally, FuGNN supports various downstream tasks, such as node feature prediction, further enhancing its versatility and applicability in power system resilience.

Liu, Boming↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power System Resilience Considering Hurricane Storms and Generator Step-up Transformers

Power system resilience describes the system’s ability to withstand and recover quickly from unexpected power outages due to extreme events. As society’s electrification continues at a rapid rate, it is imperative electric infrastructure is designed and operated with extra security. This work studies the impact of severe hurricane storms on the power system located along the United States’ Eastern Seaboard. Specific focus is designated to steady state system operation and loss of large generation step up power transformers. A series of phasor domain power system simulations are conducted to determine the critical point at which the system loses steady state operability. Additionally, active power load shedding and generator dispatching are studied as mitigation and recovery strategies. Results indicate generator dispatching as an effective proactive mitigation strategy and load shedding as an effective recovery strategy.

Liu, Yilu↗
DOE OSTI2021

SPATIOTEMPORAL TRACKING OF WIDE AREA POWER OUTAGE FROM NIGHT-TIME LIGHT IMAGERY

Monitoring progress of power restoration following extreme events is essential for situational awareness about spatio-temporal distribution of populations without power and to help with response efforts. Because of the proprietary nature of restoration data, and the difficulty in obtaining power outage data from utility companies in near real-time (e.g., during hurricane Maria (2017)), this project used satellite derived nighttime lights data from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band (DNB) to (i) monitor wide area power outage and (ii) estimate impacted customers over time to assist with restoration. A discussion of the methodology and its implementation during hurricanes Maria (2017) and Eta (2020) is presented in this paper. Future work will focus on calibrating estimated customers based on light intensity and density distribution, and generation of restoration profiles for emergency response.

Kar, Bandana↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Alternative Timing and Synchronization Approach for Situational Awareness and Predictive Analytics

Accurate and synchronized timing information is required by power system operators for controlling the grid infrastructure (relays, Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs), etc.) and determining asset positions. Satellite-based global positioning system (GPS) is the primary source of timing information. However, GPS disruptions today (both intentional and unintentional) can significantly compromise the reliability and security of our electric grids. A robust alternate source for accurate timing is critical to serve both as a deterrent against malicious attacks and as a redundant system in enhancing the resilience against extreme events that could disrupt the GPS network. To achieve this, we rely on the highly accurate, terrestrial atomic clock-based network for alternative timing and synchronization. In this paper, we discuss an experimental setup for an alternative timing approach. The data obtained from this experimental setup is continuously monitored and analyzed using various time deviation metrics. We also use these metrics to compute deviations of our clock with respect to the National Institute of Standards and Technologys (NIST) GPS data. The results obtained from these metric computations are elaborately discussed. Finally, we discuss the integration of the procedures involved, like real-time data ingestion, metric computation, and result visualization, in a novel microservices-based architecture for situational awareness.

Chinthavali, Supriya↗
DOE OSTI2022

Power System Resilience Evaluation Framework and Metric Review

Power system resilience has been an emerging hot topic in recent years to investigate the increasing threats of extreme events, such as natural disasters, severe weather, and cyberattacks. Although much research has been done to define, model, and quantify resilience from different aspects, the lack of universally accepted evaluation methods and resilience metrics makes it difficult to assess and compare resilience across different power systems, such as what is typically done in power system reliability studies. In this paper, first, we review the definitions of resilience, and we summarize two core concepts shared by most of the literature. Then, we develop a new framework to assess power system resilience from two perspectives - i.e., pre-event estimation and post-event evaluation - to capture system resilience performance in both general and specific fashions. We conduct a thorough review of existing resilience metrics and categorize them using the proposed framework, where recommendations are also proposed to capture core concepts of resilience.

power system resilience↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Generalized Framework for Service Restoration in a Resilient Power Distribution System

An electric power grid is one of the complex infrastructures, and because of its complex nature, there is simply no way that outages can be completely avoided. Thus, a modern society that depends on reliable electric supply requires a resilient electric system that can recover from disruptions while integrating emerging smart grid technologies. Here, this article presents a novel approach for service restoration in a modern power distribution system with controllable switches and distributed generation (DG) resources for any kind of outage. The proposed framework supports both the traditional service restoration using feeder reconfiguration and the grid-forming DG-assisted intentional islands that are dynamically sized using algorithms based on the fault scenario, available resources, and priority of loads. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program that incorporates critical system connectivity and operating constraints. Simulations are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach using a large-scale four-feeder 1069-bus three-phase unbalanced distribution test system. It is demonstrated that the framework is effective in utilizing all available resources in quickly restoring the power supply to improve resiliency during extreme events and is scalable for a large-scale unbalanced power distribution system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Aging Effect Analysis of PV Inverter Semiconductors for Ancillary Services Support

PV inverters can provide reactive power while generating active power. An ongoing microgrid implementation at Duke Energy actively engages non-utility PVs to generate/absorb reactive power in support of ancillary services to increase microgrid resiliency during extreme events. PV systems are requested to provide reactive power support: 1) in response to grid voltage variation to better regulate the local voltage; or 2) in response to utility incentives, such as following Transactive Energy System (TES) incentives. However, providing ancillary services might shorten the lifetime expectation of PV inverter semiconductors. This paper summarizes the potential impacts on a PV inverter semiconductor's lifetime when providing ancillary services. The analysis presented in this research work shows that providing reactive power support will increase the mean junction temperature and the junction temperature variation of the inverter diodes. This increased junction temperature will eventually lead to shorter diode lifetime. The lifetime estimation of semiconductors is briefly reviewed. The power losses of PV inverter semiconductors are derived as a support analysis to the junction temperature calculation. In addition, the impact of the filtering inductor on the semiconductor current distribution is discussed. The theoretical analysis presented in this research work is supported by simulation results.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Planning for Resilient Power Distribution Systems using Risk-Based Quantification and Q-Learning

Grid hardening is one of the most effective approaches that reduce the component failures and restoration efforts thus increasing the resilience of the power systems against extreme events. However, hardening and upgrading the entire system is prohibitively expensive and hence the optimal design of a distribution network is challenging. This paper adopted a reinforcement learning algorithm to identify the optimal hardening strategy to enhance the resilience of power distribution systems. Adopting the Q-learning algorithm as the reinforcement learning technique, we found the sequential optimal action for hardening measures to enhance the grid's resilience for the given budget. To identify the optimal strategy through Q-learning, Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is used as a rewarding metric. A study on the IEEE 123-bus test feeder validate the effectiveness of the proposed model and show how to effectively allocate budget limited resources to plan a resilient power distribution network.

Paul, Shuva↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comfort and Safety Metrics to Evaluate Customer Centric Resilience Enhancement Strategies

As the coincident events of extreme weather and major power outages continue to rise there is an increased need to implement resilience solutions. Many of these solutions are customer-centric, requiring the flexibility of demand, and many of the standard economic evaluations of these solutions do not include the benefits of resilience that are not easily quantified and monetized. Indoor air temperature has a large impact on the comfort and safety of building occupants during an extreme weather event. This work proposes metrics that can be used to compare the performance of resilience solutions in the context of comfort and safety.

Cost benefit analysis, Demand Side Management, Pow↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved microgrid resiliency through distributionally robust optimization under a policy-mode framework

Critical energy infrastructure are constantly under stress due to the ever increasing disruptions caused by wildfires, hurricanes, other weather related extreme events and cyber-attacks. Hence it becomes important to make critical infrastructure resilient to threats from such cyber-physical events. However, such events are hard to predict and numerous in nature and type and it becomes infeasible to make a system resilient to every possible such cyber-physical event. Such an approach can make the system operation overly conservative and impractical to operate. Furthermore, distributions of such events are hard to predict and historical data available on such events can be very sparse, making the problem even harder to solve. To deal with these issues, in this paper we present a policy-mode framework that enumerates and predicts the probability of various cyber-physical events and then a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) formulation that is robust to the sparsity of the available historical data. The proposed algorithm is illustrated on an islanded microgrid example: a modified IEEE 123-node feeder with distributed energy resources (DERs) and energy storage. Simulations are carried to validate the resiliency metrics under the sampled disruption events.

Nazir, Mohammad Nawaf↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Distribution System Critical Load Restoration

Grid resilience has become a critical topic recently because of the increasing occurrence of extreme events and the growing integration of intermittent renewable energy sources. To build a resilient distribution system, this paper develops a multiagent reinforcement learning-based (MARL) method to coordinate distribution energy resources (DERs) dispatch, load pickup, and network reconfiguration for load restoration after a system outage. With the help of two types of control agents, namely critical load restoration (CLR) and coordination (COR) agents, system loads can be restored efficiently, given available resources. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed algorithm are demonstrated through simulations and comparative studies on a real distribution feeder in Western Colorado.

distribution system↗