SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “extrapolation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear microreactor transient and load-following control with deep reinforcement learning

The economic feasibility of nuclear microreactors will depend on minimizing operating costs through advancements in autonomous control, especially when these microreactors are operating alongside other types of energy systems (e.g., renewable energy). This study explores the application of deep reinforcement learning (RL) for real-time drum control in microreactors, exploring performance in regard to load-following scenarios. By leveraging a point kinetics model with thermal and xenon feedback, we first establish a baseline using a single-output RL agent, then compare it against a traditional proportional–integral–derivative (PID) controller. This study demonstrates that RL controllers, including both single- and multi-agent RL (MARL) frameworks, can achieve similar or even superior load-following performance as traditional PID control across a range of load-following scenarios. In short transients, the RL agent was able to reduce the tracking error rate in comparison to PID by one half to one third. Over extended 300-minute load-following scenarios in which xenon feedback becomes a dominant factor, PID maintained better accuracy, but RL still remained within a 1% error margin despite being trained only on short-duration scenarios. This highlights RL’s strong ability to generalize and extrapolate to longer, more complex transients, affording substantial reductions in training costs and reduced overfitting. Furthermore, when control was extended to multiple drums, MARL enabled independent drum control as well as maintained reactor symmetry constraints without sacrificing performance---an objective that standard single-agent RL could not learn. We also found that, as increasing levels of Gaussian noise were added to the power measurements, the RL controllers were able to maintain lower error rates than PID, and to do so with at least 10% and upwards of 150% less control effort. These findings illustrate RL's potential for autonomous nuclear reactor control, laying the groundwork for future integration into high-fidelity simulations and experimental validation efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Futures for electrochromic windows on high performance houses in arid, cold climates

This study investigates high performance electrochromic windows used on a passive house and residential dwelling to IECC 2021 (i.e., IECC dwelling). In the lab, the electrochromic film switches transmitted solar heat gain coefficient (SHGC) from 0.09 to 0.7 and visible transmittance from 0.15 to 0.82 with power consumption of 1.23 W/m 2 during switching times less than 3 minutes. We extrapolate these results to a window assembly. Building energy models of the houses were evaluated in Santa Fe, New Mexico. A Monte Carlo analysis for 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 was conducted for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5. Cases with and without the electrochromic windows and with and without electricity were used to determine energy use intensity and hours beyond thermal safety thresholds. The passive house showed 1.3-3.1% mean energy savings and the IECC dwelling 4.4-5.1% with electrochromic efficiency benefits growing into the future for both cases. Even so, overall savings decrease into the future for the passive house, due to growth in cooling load being dominant, conversely overall energy savings increase into the future for the IECC dwelling due to heating loads being dominant. For thermal resilience, the passive house exhibited a mean percent decrease of 0.02-0.31% hours in the extreme caution (i.e., > 32.2 °C, ≤ 39.4 °C) range while the IECC dwelling exhibited 0.38-4.38%. The study therefore shows that electrochromic windows will have smaller benefits for the passive house in comparison to the IECC dwelling. The relationship between electrochromic windows is shown to have a complex relationship between house efficiency and climate change by these results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed hybrid modeling methodology for building infiltration

Infiltration is responsible for one-third to one-half of the space conditioning load of a typical residential home, but the modeling of infiltration for building energy modeling is either represented by over-simplified equations or dependent on over-generalized rules of thumb. Here, this paper develops a physics-informed data-driven methodology for modeling infiltration using building-specific empirical measurements. The developed hybrid methodology combines machine-learning categorization and grey-box sub-modeling to improve the accuracy and generalization of commonly used grey-box infiltration models. The developed methodology excels at predicting infiltration by improving the ability to predict infiltration under unseen environmental conditions using machine learning algorithms with physical significance. In a case study conducted using the iUnit, a modular studio apartment experimental test facility located at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, we use empirical airtightness measurements to fit an infiltration model using the developed methodology. We find that the developed methodology can improve the overall model accuracy by 43% and improve extrapolation by 38%, compared with the model based on the common grey-box infiltration equation. We also notice that the selected features can improve the performance of a pure machine-learning model, indicating that our methodology identifies the features with the most physical significance to infiltration modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Melting and phase relations of Fe-Ni-Si determined by a multi-technique approach

Many studies have suggested silicon as a candidate light element for the cores of Earth and Mercury. However, the effect of silicon on the melting temperatures of core materials and thermal profiles of cores is poorly understood, due to disagreements among melt detection techniques, uncertainties in sample pressure evolution during heating, and sparsity of studies investigating the combined effects of nickel and silicon on the phase diagram of iron. Here, in this study we develop a multi-technique approach for measuring the high-pressure melting and solid phase relations of iron alloys and apply it to Fe 0.8 Ni 0.1 Si 0.1 (Fe-11wt%Ni-5.3wt%Si), a composition compatible with recent estimates for the cores of Earth and Mercury. This approach combines results (20-83 GPa) from two atomic-level techniques: synchrotron Mossbauer spectroscopy (SMS) and synchrotron x-ray diffraction (XRD). Melting is independently detected by the loss of the Mossbauer signal, produced exclusively by solid-bound iron nuclei, and the onset of a liquid diffuse x-ray scattering signal. The use of a burst heating and background updating method for quantifying changes in the reference background during heating facilitates the determination of liquid diffuse signal onsets and leads to strong reproducibility and excellent agreement in melting temperatures determined separately by the two techniques. XRD measurements additionally constrain the hcp-fcc phase boundary and in-situ pressure evolution of the samples during heating. We apply our updated thermal pressure model to published SMS melting data on fcc-Fe and fcc-Fe 0.9 Ni 0.1 to precisely evaluate the effect of silicon on melting temperatures. We find that the addition of 10 mol% Si to Fe 0.9 Ni 0.1 reduces melting temperatures by ~250 K at low pressures (<60 GPa) and flattens the hcp-fcc phase boundary. Extrapolating our results, we constrain the location of the hcp-fcc-liquid quasi-triple point at 147±14 GPa and 3140±90 K, which implies a melting temperature reduction of 500 K compared with Fe 0.9 Ni 0.1 . The results demonstrate the advantages of combining complementary experimental techniques in investigations of melting under extreme conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sound velocities and thermal equation of state of fcc -iron-nickel alloys at high pressure and high temperature: Implications for the cores of Moon and several planets

Fcc-Fe-Ni alloy is believed to be the most dominant solid constitute of moderate-sized terrestrial planetary cores. Investigating the physical properties, especially the density and sound velocity of Fe-Ni alloys and comparing them with seismic observations is an indispensable approach to constructing compositional models for planetary interiors. In this study, we conducted sound velocity measurements on Fe-Ni alloys with 10 wt.% and 20 wt.% Ni up to ∼13.5 GPa and 1073 K, using the ultrasonic interferometry technique in a multi-anvil apparatus in conjunction with synchrotron radiation. By fitting the experimental data to finite strain equations, the bulk and shear moduli and their pressure and temperature derivatives are derived, yielding K S0 =145.8(14) GPa, G 0 = 73.2(7) GPa, K S0 ’ = 5.89(24), G 0 ’ = 2.89(8), (∂K S /∂T) P = -0.0181(12) GPa/K and (∂G/∂T) P = -0.0393(10) GPa/K for fcc-Fe 80 Ni 20 . An examination of the density-velocity relationship shows that compressional wave velocity is insensitive to temperature within the current pressure and temperature range, while shear wave velocity exhibits a large reduction with increasing temperature. Here, extrapolation of the sound velocities following the finite strain theories suggests that much slower Vs should be expected at pressure and temperature conditions corresponding to those of the lunar core. Possible core density and velocity profiles for other moderate planets and satellites, such as Mars, Mercury, and Ganymede are also calculated.

Equation of state↗

DOE OSTI2021

Signatures of rare earth element distributions in fly ash derived from the combustion of Central Appalachian, Illinois, and Powder River basin coals

We report the distribution of Rare Earth elements (REE) in coal-derived fly ashes can have distinctive patterns when fly ashes are produced from different coals within or between basins, such as the Pennsylvanian Class F fly ashes from the Illinois and Central Appalachian basins. Both the Fire Clay coal and a blend of a number of eastern Kentucky coals show strong Gd peaks and an H-type distribution in the Upper Continental Crust-corrected plots. The Fire Clay coal-derived ash has a higher heavy REE concentration than the blended coal-derived ash. The Illinois Basin-derived fly as has an overall lower REE concentration than the latter ashes. Class C fly ash derived from Powder River Basin coals has, with the exception of an Eu peak, a flatter distribution of REE and an overall L-type or indistinct H- versus L-type distribution. The signatures of the REE in fly ashes may be useful in predicting their behavior in the extraction of the REE; simple extrapolations from the basic concentrations and the predicted extraction percentages for ashes from different basins are not necessarily indicative of the actual distribution of the extracted REE.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model-based compositional predictions for a differential scanning calorimetry/thermogravimetric analysis-mass spectrometry system used for heat of vaporization measurements

A Differential Scanning Calorimetry/Thermogravimetric Analysis (DSC/TGA) procedure for determination of Heat of Vaporization (HOV) of fuel and surrogate fuel mixtures has been previously utilized for evaluation of oxygenate impacts on spark ignition fuels. This analysis has been further leveraged with mass spectrometry (MS) to elucidate vapor phase compositional changes during evaporation. In this study we focus on a simple system of three compounds (ethanol, n-hexane, and n-octane) to provide a model-based understanding of the evaporation process under these experimental conditions. An Aspen Plus model was set up to provide liquid and vapor phase concentration predictions during mixture evaporation using the initial mixture composition, and measured temperature and mass loss profiles from DSC/TGA experiments. Agreements between the trends of the MS ion count profiles and model composition predictions provide a degree of validation of this modeling approach that can allow the interpretation and extrapolation of DSC/TGA measurements for more complex fuel mixtures.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrothermal solution calorimetry in acidic aqueous solutions and revisiting the standard partial molal thermodynamic properties of Nd 3+ from 25 to 300 °C

The mobility of rare earth elements (REE) can be predicted in aqueous fluids using geochemical modeling but the accuracy of these models strongly depends on the availability of robust thermodynamic properties for the REE aqueous species. The REE 3+ aqua ions are important in the derivation of the formation constants of all the major REE complexes including the chloride, sulfate, and fluoride species which predominate in many hydrothermal-magmatic systems. However, the thermodynamic properties of the REE 3+ aqua ions are still commonly derived from the Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers (HKF) equation of state parameters tabulated several decades ago. The standard state thermodynamic properties at reference conditions (25 °C and 1bar) and their extrapolations to high temperature need to be verified, if not revised, based on hydrothermal experiments. In this study, the enthalpy of solution was measured for synthetic Nd hydroxide from 25 to 150 ºC to retrieve the standard partial molal thermodynamic properties of Nd 3+ as a function of temperature. The experiments were conducted in aqueous perchloric acid based solutions with starting pH of 2 and varying ionic strength (0.01 to 0.09 mol/kg NaClO 4 ). The standard partial molal enthalpy of formation (Δ f H°) of Nd 3+ derived from the experimental study displays differences of up to 10 kJ/mol compared to the enthalpy values derived from the HKF equation of state in the studied temperature range. These inaccuracies are resolved by adjusting the standard partial molal Gibbs energy of formation (Δ f G°) of Nd 3+ at 25 °C and 1 bar from -672.0 to -679.7 kJ/mol. The heat capacity function (C p °) derived between 25 and 150 ºC can be described by: C p ° = a 0 + a 1 ·T + a 2 ·T -2 , with a 0 = 1256, a 1 = -2.68, a 2 = -55.56·10 6 and T in Kelvin. A set of recommended thermodynamic properties is provided for the Nd 3+ aqua ions and corrections are provided for the chloride and fluoride species to remain internally consistent with the experimentally derived properties. These results allow predicting accurately the solubility of monazite between 25 and 300 ºC. Before these corrections, the properties for the Nd 3+ aqua ions derived from the HKF parameters resulted in up to ~1.5 orders of magnitude lower monazite solubility than determined experimentally. Here, a revision of the REE +3 aqua ions properties is necessary to accurately predict the mobility of REE in hydrothermal acidic solutions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

The solubility of NdPO 4 and DyPO 4 and stability of Nd and Dy chloride and hydroxyl complexes as a function of pH and salinity to 450 °C

The mobility of rare earth elements (REE) in geological systems is often controlled by the stability of monazite and xenotime, which are important hosts for the light and heavy REE. These REE phosphates constitute important resources and provide information on ore formation conditions and timing due to their uses as geothermometers and geochronometers. While the thermodynamic properties for these minerals are well-established up to high temperature and pressure, the properties for the aqueous REE complexes are not well constrained with limited information up to 300 °C. In this study, the solubility of synthetic NdPO 4 and DyPO 4 endmembers were measured in hydrothermal sub- to supercritical NaCl-bearing aqueous solutions from 350 at saturated water vapor pressure to 450 °C at 700 bar. The speciation of Nd and Dy was determined in acidic to alkaline solutions (pH 25 °C values from 2 to 10), and indicates that the hydroxyl species REE(OH) 2 + and REE(OH) 3 0 predominate at low salinity (0.01 mol/kg NaCl) with some contribution of REE chloride species REECl 2+ and REECl 2 + in acidic fluids. The REE phosphate solubility measured in these experiments is up to two orders of magnitude higher than predicted using existing thermodynamic properties from literature for aqueous species extrapolated from lower temperature data to supercritical conditions. To address this discrepancy, the thermodynamic properties of the REE aqueous species were optimized using GEMSFITS to derive the formation constants for the REE chloride (β Cl ) and hydroxyl (β OH ) complexes in the studied temperature range. This study highlights the importance of the hydroxyl species REE(OH) 2 + and REE(OH) 3 0 over a wide range of pH and temperature. As a result, the revised thermodynamic properties for Dy and Nd chloride and hydroxyl species more accurately predict the solubility of NdPO 4 and DyPO 4 and provide insight into the speciation and mobility of the light and heavy REE in hydrothermal supercritical fluids in the crust.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effect of sample size on the maximum value distribution of fatigue driving forces in metals and alloys

An analytical framework is presented to predict the effects of sample size on the maximum value distribution (MVD) of the driving forces for fatigue crack formation in metals and alloys. The distribution of the maximum driving force for fatigue crack formation over the domain follows the generalized extreme value theory in the limit as the domain size increases to infinity. Here, a simulation-based analysis of microstructure influences on fatigue resistance for polycrystalline metals and alloys is very costly, and reaching those limits is intractable. This work models the MVD of Fatigue Indicator Parameters (FIPs), which serve as surrogate measures for the driving force for fatigue crack formation, at finite sample sizes prior to their convergence to a limiting extreme value distribution. Large-scale crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) simulations of FCC Al 7075-T6 with microstructure realizations of various sizes are incorporated to calibrate and evaluate the developed framework, and a total of ∼6.5 million grains of Al 7075-T6 are examined. The calibrated analytical solution agrees well with the brute force Monte Carlo simulation results extracted from the CPFE simulations. Furthermore, the developed formulation can predict the MVD of FIPs for different sample sizes using a size-dependent parameter, and it is capable of accurately extrapolating the MVD of FIPs for much larger microstructure sample sizes than the size used for its calibration.

Crystal plasticity↗

DOE OSTI2021

Microscopic ejecta measurements from hypervelocity impacts on aluminum and powdered regolith targets

Meteoroids and space debris pose a two-fold threat to spacecraft due to the risk of both mechanical damage from the impact and electrical damage from the impact-generated plasma, which produces electromagnetic emissions. Analysis of impact products, however, has the potential to provide useful information about planetary rings and small solar system bodies, such as asteroids and comets. Understanding the plasma dynamics and radiation mechanism is essential to addressing the impact threat and extracting science data from impacts. Charge attachment to condensed-phase debris may lead to a dusty plasma under certain conditions, so interpreting hypervelocity impacts requires knowledge of both the nature of the plasma and of the ejecta. We address the latter with measurements of the microscopic ejecta distribution produced by light gas gun impacts on solid aluminum and powdered regolith simulant targets. We examine both the size and shape of the ejecta using thin-film witness plates and find that the size distributions of microscopic ejecta follow power laws. Observations from the powdered regolith simulant match well with disruption experiments of solid basalt, while measurements from the aluminum impacts diverge from extrapolations based on studies of macroscopic debris. Analysis of the ejecta shape shows a transition from smooth to irregularly shaped ejecta at the material grain size, and the shape of debris may provide insight on the phase of the ejected material. Finally, based on our results, we predict a significant number of secondary impacts on plasma sensors due to ejecta, even at considerable distance from the target, supporting the hypothesis that charged dust affects plasma measurements in the ejecta curtain.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Computationally efficient CFD prediction of bubbly flow using physics-guided deep learning

To realize efficient computational fluid dynamics (CFD) prediction of two-phase flow, a multi-scale framework was proposed in this paper by applying a physics-guided data-driven approach. Instrumental to this framework, Feature Similarity Measurement (FSM) technique was developed for error estimation in two-phase flow simulation using coarse-mesh CFD, to achieve a comparable accuracy as fine-mesh simulations with fast-running feature. In this work, by defining physics-guided parameters and variable gradients as physical features, FSM has the capability to capture the underlying local patterns in the coarse-mesh CFD simulation. Massive low-fidelity data and respective high-fidelity data are used to explore the underlying information relevant to the main simulation errors and the effects of phenomenological scaling. By learning from previous simulation data, a surrogate model using deep feedforward neural network (DFNN) can be developed and trained to estimate the simulation error of coarse-mesh CFD. In a demonstration case of two-phase bubbly flow, the DFNN model well captured and corrected the unphysical “peaks” in the velocity and void fraction profiles near the wall in the coarse-mesh configuration, even for extrapolative predictions. The research documented supports the feasibility of the physics-guided deep learning methods for coarse mesh CFD simulations which has a potential for the efficient industrial design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tensile and compressive plastic deformation behavior of medium-entropy Cr-Co-Ni single crystals from cryogenic to elevated temperatures

The equiatomic Cr-Co-Ni medium-entropy alloy has the face-centered cubic (FCC) structure. Bulk single crystals of this alloy were grown and tested in tension and compression between 14 K and 1373 K with the loading axis parallel to [23]. At room temperature, the critical resolved shear stress (CRSS) for {111}<10> slip is 65 ± 5 MPa and does not exhibit a tension-compression asymmetry. It does, however, increase significantly as the test temperature decreases. A dulling of this temperature dependence occurs below 50 K, which may be due to the inertia effect. When the measured values above 50 K are extrapolated to lower temperatures, a value of 225 MPa is estimated for the CRSS at 0 K. This is larger than that (168 MPa) previously determined for the equiatomic Cr-Mn-Fe-Co-Ni high-entropy alloy using a similar procedure. The stacking fault energy of the present Cr-Co-Ni is estimated to be about 14 mJm-2, which is sufficiently low to account for deformation twinning both at 77 K and room temperature. Twinning at 77 K occurs on conjugate (1) planes at an onset shear stress of 482 MPa after primary slip and propagates in the form of Lüders deformation. At room temperature, twinning occurs uniformly throughout the gauge section on primary (111) planes at an onset shear stress of 381 MPa after primary and subsequent conjugate slip. Thin layers with the hexagonal close-packed stacking are observed in association with twinning both at 77 K and room temperature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microstructure-sensitive modeling of high temperature creep in grade-91 alloy

Predicting the effects of microstructure on high-temperature creep responses of steel components is critical to minimize the risks of failure and maximize economic viability in the energy sector. In this research, a recently developed advanced mechanistic constitutive model is employed to study the effect of microstructure on the creep responses and to rationalize experimentally reported variability in the performances of grade-91 alloy. Hundreds of experimental creep tests from the literature are used to assess the predictability of the model. The model proposed is shown to accurately predict the steady-state creep rates and also the less commonly considered, yet important, primary-to-secondary transients for a wide range of creep conditions. Further, the model is capable of extrapolating the creep response of grade 91 alloy even outside of the calibration regime. Using this model, the roles of initial microstructure described in terms of grain size, dislocation density, and precipitate content, on the creep responses are investigated. The effect of initial microstructure on the steady-state creep rates and creep-strain is found to vary with stress and temperature. Grain size plays a significant role in the low-stress creep, where the diffusional creep is dominant. On the other hand, the effects of dislocation densities and precipitate content are significant in the dislocation-plasticity-dominated high-stress and temperature regimes. Furthermore, by comparing model predictions against a large experimental creep database, it is found that variability in the creep responses can be rationalized on the basis of differences in the initial microstructure. Overall, this work provides a robust pathway for microstructure-aware engineering design, verification, and validation of metallic components for energy applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic room temperature creep of 316 L stainless steel

The creep behavior of 316 L stainless steel at room temperature was evaluated as a function of time and applied stress using a new high-throughput approach. Several common creep models were evaluated against the observations, leading to deeper analysis of a stress-dependent modified logarithmic creep model. Within this model, multiple sources of uncertainty were compared. Aleatoric stochastic variation between samples under nominally identical conditions was identified as the primary contributor to uncertainty in creep response. Under any particular set of conditions, the sample-to-sample variability in creep strain was as high as a factor of two, highlighting the engineering importance of characterizing large statistical datasets. The model's extrapolation capabilities were assessed by comparing predictions derived from calibration on partial, shorter-duration subsets of the data. In conclusion, these findings underscore the importance of accounting for stochastic effects in predictive modeling of aging phenomena.

High-throughput↗

DOE OSTI2021

A probabilistic creep model incorporating test condition, initial damage, and material property uncertainty

Uncertainty is prevalent in the creep resistance of alloys, where at elevated temperature and low pressure, rupture can range across logarithmic decades. In this study, a probabilistic continuum-damage-mechanics (CDM)-based model is derived to capture the uncertainty of creep resistance. To meet this objective, creep data for alloy 304 Stainless Steel is gathered. A constitutive model, “Sinh”, is calibrated deterministically to determine the statistical variability of the material properties. Three sources of uncertainty are injected into the model: test condition (stress and temperature), initial damage, and material properties. Probabilistic simulations are carried out by (a) calibrating probability distribution functions (pdfs) for each source of uncertainty (b) randomly sampling the pdfs using Monte Carlo methods and (c) executing simulations to replicate the uncertain creep behavior. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the relative effect of each source of uncertainty. In full probabilistic simulations, the cumulative uncertainty of creep behavior is evaluated. The probabilistic model accurately predicts the creep deformation and rupture of the available experiments. The probabilistic model is validated for interpolation but lacks extrapolation ability. Several future works are proposed to further improve the model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning based prediction of airflow maldistribution in air-to-refrigerant heat exchangers

Flow maldistribution is a common challenge in heat exchanger (HX) design and particularly important for air-to-refrigerant geometries where capacity losses can approach 65%. This has a major impact on central air conditioning systems, as compact duct design motivates the use of A-type HXs which are known to be affected by airflow maldistribution. Because velocity profiles are difficult to predict, components are often oversized leading to increased material cost, system footprint, and refrigerant charge. Several studies detail airflow maldistribution for individual HXs and packages, but findings cannot always be extrapolated to new designs. In this work, a machine learning (ML) based flow profile prediction framework is developed and applied to two common package configurations: (i) A-type and (ii) U-type HXs, across a broad range of HX geometries and flow rates. Porous media CFD simulations are validated against independent data for both package types as well as comprehensive in house measurements for a finless geometry with shape optimized non-round tubes, which validates the framework for new heat transfer surfaces. The ML models are trained on the porous media CFD simulations, predicting volumetric flow rate (VFR) within 1.1% and 1.9% with maximum relative L 2 norm errors of 0.48 and 0.65, respectively, while also delivering 10 5 speed up factor compared to full porous media CFD. HX level simulations show an up to 9% reduction in heat transfer from flow maldistribution, with greater losses occurring at smaller half apex angles. This framework enables rapid and highly accurate prediction of airflow maldistribution induced capacity degradation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A geospatial model for the analysis of time-dependent land subsidence induced by reservoir depletion

Land subsidence due to fluid depletion is an outcome of physical processes operating across a wide range of time and length scales. Although geomechanical models are crucial to simulate reservoir compaction and predict its long-term fate, their use across large regions often bears prohibitive computational costs. To overcome this obstacle, this paper proposes a simplified modelling framework consisting of (i) a near-field numerical solver simulating the coupling between fluid flow and rock deformation with reference to a simplified one-dimensional geometry and (ii) a far-field geospatial algorithm mapping ground settlements across a region through the superposition of poroelastic computations at multiple wells. The model computes the delay between depletion history and reservoir compaction in proximity of a producing well by assuming basal depletion of a fluid-saturated deformable disk, while the Geertsma solution of nucleus of strain is used to extrapolate the impact of such time-varying reservoir compaction around the well. This approach has been used to back-analyze the spatio-temporal progression of subsidence at the Groningen gas field. The results are compared against measurements collected over 50 year of production at 25 benchmark locations scattered over an area of 900 km 2 . It is shown that coupled simulations based on average values of rock compressibility and permeability lead to nonlinear trends of subsidence evolution in good agreement with field measurements, while uncoupled analyses overpredict settlements by more than 70%. Lastly, synthetic forecasts based on different rates of depletion were provided. The results suggest that slower depletion rates lead to lower subsidence at a given time, and that residual subsidence may continue to develop for several decades after interruption of production activities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗