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NASA NTRS2005

Solar Type II Radio Bursts and IP Type II Events

We have examined radio data from the WAVES experiment on the Wind spacecraft in conjunction with ground-based data in order to investigate the relationship between the shocks responsible for metric type II radio bursts and the shocks in front of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The bow shocks of fast, large CMEs are strong interplanetary (IP) shocks, and the associated radio emissions often consist of single broad bands starting below approx. 4 MHz; such emissions were previously called IP type II events. In contrast, metric type II bursts are usually narrowbanded and display two harmonically related bands. In addition to displaying complete dynamic spectra for a number of events, we also analyze the 135 WAVES 1 - 14 MHz slow-drift time periods in 2001-2003. We find that most of the periods contain multiple phenomena, which we divide into three groups: metric type II extensions, IP type II events, and blobs and bands. About half of the WAVES listings include probable extensions of metric type II radio bursts, but in more than half of these events, there were also other slow-drift features. In the 3 yr study period, there were 31 IP type II events; these were associated with the very fastest CMEs. The most common form of activity in the WAVES events, blobs and bands in the frequency range between 1 and 8 MHz, fall below an envelope consistent with the early signatures of an IP type II event. However, most of this activity lasts only a few tens of minutes, whereas IP type II events last for many hours. In this study we find many examples in the radio data of two shock-like phenomena with different characteristics that occur simultaneously in the metric and decametric/hectometric bands, and no clear example of a metric type II burst that extends continuously down in frequency to become an IP type II event. The simplest interpretation is that metric type II bursts, unlike IP type II events, are not caused by shocks driven in front of CMEs.

Cane, H. V.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Community Coordinated Modeling Center Support of Science Needs for Integrated Data Environment

Space science models are essential component of integrated data environment. Space science models are indispensable tools to facilitate effective use of wide variety of distributed scientific sources and to place multi-point local measurements into global context. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) hosts a set of state-of-the- art space science models ranging from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The majority of models residing at CCMC are comprehensive computationally intensive physics-based models. To allow the models to be driven by data relevant to particular events, the CCMC developed an online data file generation tool that automatically downloads data from data providers and transforms them to required format. CCMC provides a tailored web-based visualization interface for the model output, as well as the capability to download simulations output in portable standard format with comprehensive metadata and user-friendly model output analysis library of routines that can be called from any C supporting language. CCMC is developing data interpolation tools that enable to present model output in the same format as observations. CCMC invite community comments and suggestions to better address science needs for the integrated data environment.

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Scientific Benefits of Space Science Models Archiving at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) hosts a set of state-of-the-art space science models ranging from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. CCMC provides a web-based Run-on-Request system, by which the interested scientist can request simulations for a broad range of space science problems. To allow the models to be driven by data relevant to particular events CCMC developed a tool that automatically downloads data from data archives and transform them to required formats. CCMC also provides a tailored web-based visualization interface for the model output, as well as the capability to download the simulation output in portable format. CCMC offers a variety of visualization and output analysis tools to aid scientists in interpretation of simulation results. During eight years since the Run-on-request system became available the CCMC archived the results of almost 3000 runs that are covering significant space weather events and time intervals of interest identified by the community. The simulation results archived at CCMC also include a library of general purpose runs with modeled conditions that are used for education and research. Archiving results of simulations performed in support of several Modeling Challenges helps to evaluate the progress in space weather modeling over time. We will highlight the scientific benefits of CCMC space science model archive and discuss plans for further development of advanced methods to interact with simulation results.

Kuznetsova, Maria M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Gradual Diffusion and Punctuated Phase Space Density Enhancements of Highly Relativistic Electrons: Van Allen Probes Observations

The dual-spacecraft Van Allen Probes mission has provided a new window into mega electron volt (MeV) particle dynamics in the Earth's radiation belts. Observations (up to E (is) approximately 10MeV) show clearly the behavior of the outer electron radiation belt at different timescales: months-long periods of gradual inward radial diffusive transport and weak loss being punctuated by dramatic flux changes driven by strong solar wind transient events. We present analysis of multi-MeV electron flux and phase space density (PSD) changes during March 2013 in the context of the first year of Van Allen Probes operation. This March period demonstrates the classic signatures both of inward radial diffusive energization and abrupt localized acceleration deep within the outer Van Allen zone (L (is) approximately 4.0 +/- 0.5). This reveals graphically that both 'competing' mechanisms of multi-MeV electron energization are at play in the radiation belts, often acting almost concurrently or at least in rapid succession.

Van Allen Probes↗

NASA NTRS2016

Photospheric Current Spikes and Their Possible Association with Flares - Results from an HMI Data Driven Model

A data driven, near photospheric magnetohydrodynamic model predicts spikes in the horizontal current density, and associated resistive heating rate per unit volume Q. The spikes appear as increases by orders of magnitude above background values in neutral line regions (NLRs) of active regions (ARs). The largest spikes typically occur a few hours to a few days prior to M or X flares. The spikes correspond to large vertical derivatives of the horizontal magnetic field. The model takes as input the photospheric magnetic field observed by the Helioseismic & Magnetic Imager (HMI) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. This 2.5 D field is used to determine an analytic expression for a 3 D magnetic field, from which the current density, vector potential, and electric field are computed in every AR pixel for 14 ARs. The field is not assumed to be force-free. The spurious 6, 12, and 24 hour Doppler periods due to SDO orbital motion are filtered out of the time series of the HMI magnetic field for each pixel using a band pass filter. The subset of spikes analyzed at the pixel level are found to occur on HMI and granulation scales of 1 arcsec and 12 minutes. Spikes are found in ARs with and without M or X flares, and outside as well as inside NLRs, but the largest spikes are localized in the NLRs of ARs with M or X flares. The energy to drive the heating associated with the largest current spikes comes from bulk flow kinetic energy, not the electromagnetic field, and the current density is highly non-force free. The results suggest that, in combination with the model, HMI is revealing strong, convection driven, non-force free heating events on granulation scales, and that it is plausible these events are correlated with subsequent M or X flares. More and longer time series need to be analyzed to determine if such a correlation exists. Above an AR dependent threshold value of Q, the number of events N(Q) with heating rates greater than or equal to Q obeys a scale invariant power law distribution for each AR given by N(Q) varies Q(sup -s), where 0.40 less than or equal to S less than or equal to 0.53, with a mean and standard deviation across the 14 ARs of 0.47 and 0.045, showing there is little variation of S from one AR to another. These properties of N(Q) are in close agreement with those of the distribution N(E) for the total energy E of solar flares, determined from observations to be N(E) = constant x E(sup -alpha). From observations of nanoflares in the 0.7 to 4 MK range, and from observations of flares in hard X-rays, it is found that 0.51 less than or equal to alpha less than or equal to 0.57, and 0.4 less than or equal to alpha less than or equal to 0.6, respectively (Crosby et al. 1993, Sol. Phys., 143, 275; Aschwanden & Parnell 2002, ApJ, 572, 1048). Observations also show that, as is found here for the exponent S, there is little variation of alpha with AR (Wheatland 2000, ApJ, 532, 1209), indicating N(E) and N(Q) are largely independent of individual properties of ARs such as area, total magnetic flux, and distribution of current density (i.e. non-potentiality). Therefore the power law scaling of the photospheric heating rate Q computed here on granulation scales is essentially identical to that found for coronal observations of flare energies on scales 1-2 orders of magnitude larger. This suggests the physical mechanisms that cause Q and coronal flares are closely related. It seems likely that Q is the signature of a magnetic reconnection process in an energy range and volume orders of magnitude smaller than those of flares. In this context, at least the larger spikes in Q might be signatures of UV photospheric or lower chromospheric bombs in which plasma is heated to temperatures approximately 10(exp -5) K (Peter et al. 2014, Science 346, 1255726; Judge 2015, ApJ, 808, 116). In addition, lattice based avalanche simulations of flare energy release predict 0.4 less than or equal to alpha less than or equal to 0.5, while analytic, fractal-diffusive self-organized criticality models predict 0.4 less than or equal to alpha less than or equal to 0.67, in excellent agreement with observations, and the results presented here (Aschwanden & Parnell 2002, ApJ, 572, 1048; Aschwanden 2012, A&A, 539, A2; Aschwanden 2013, in "Self Organized Criticality Systems"; Aschwanden et al. 2016, SSR, 198, 47).

Goodman, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2022

Climate Change-Induced Peatland Drying in Southeast Asia

When organic peat soils are sufficiently dry, they become flammable. In Southeast Asian peatlands, widespread deforestation and associated drainage create dry conditions that, when coupled with El Niño-driven drought, result in catastrophic fire events that release large amounts of carbon and deadly smoke to the atmosphere. While the effects of anthropogenic degradation on peat moisture and fire risk have been extensively demonstrated, climate change impacts to peat flammability are poorly understood. These impacts are likely to be mediated primarily through changes in soil moisture. Here, we used neural networks (trained on data from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite) to model soil moisture as a function of climate, degradation, and location. The neural networks were forced with regional climate model projections for 1985–2005 and 2040–2060 climate under RCP8.5 forcing to predict changes in soil moisture. We find that reduced precipitation and increased evaporative demand will lead to median soil moisture decreases about half as strong as those observed during recent El Niño droughts in 2015 and 2019. Based on previous studies, such reductions may be expected to accelerate peat carbon emissions. Our results also suggest that soil moisture in degraded areas with less tree cover may be more sensitive to climate change than in other land use types, motivating urgent peatland restoration. Climate change may play an important role in future soil moisture regimes and by extension, future peat fire in Southeast Asian peatlands.

VIIRS↗

DOE OSTI2023

DUNE-PRISM – A New Method to Measure Neutrino Oscillations

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation long baseline neutrino oscillation experiment designed to make precision measurements in a 1.2 2.4 MW neutrino beam, which is directed 1285 km from the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab) to the Sandford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in South Dakota. Neutrinos are measured at two detector facilities: a near detector located at Fermilab close where the beam is produced and a far detector at SURF. The neutrino beam can be configured to be composed primarily of either muon or anti-muon neutrinos. DUNE measures the disappearance of muon and anti-muon neutrinos and appearance electron and anti-electron neutrinos in the neutrino beam. Measuring these neutrino flavour transitions provides DUNE with sensitivity to the neutrino mass ordering, $\delta_{CP}$, $\theta_{13}$, $\theta_{23}$ and the magnitude of $\Delta m^2_{23}$. The DUNE Precision Reaction Independent Spectrum Measurement (DUNE-PRISM) concept presents a novel way to perform a neutrino oscillation analysis, which has the potential to significantly reduce the impact of large systematic uncertainties in the neutrino interaction model. The PRISM method linearly combines measurements of off-axis neutrino interactions at the DUNE near detector to produce data-driven predictions of the oscillated neutrino event rate spectrum at the far detector. By building an oscillated far detector prediction directly from data, any unknown or poorly modelled neutrino interaction effects will be naturally incorporated into the measurement of the parameters of the neutrino oscillation model. This thesis presents the first complete neutrino oscillation analysis for DUNE using the PRISM method. Details of the methodology are fully explained and the prospects for further improvements to the techniques described are highlighted. The expected impact and relative importance of the neutrino flux, cross section and detector systematic uncertainties are described in detail. Finally, this thesis demonstrates that the PRISM method is capable of performing a measurement of the oscillation parameters that is robust against neutrino interaction modelling errors.

Hasnip, Ciaran↗

NASA NTRS2011

Intensity Variation of Solar Energetic Particle Events

This paper updates the influence of environmental and source factors of shocks driven by corona) mass ejections (CMEs) that are likely to influence the intensity of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. The intensity variation due to CME interaction reported in Gopalswamy et al. (2004, JGR 109, Al2105) is confirmed by expanding the investigation to all the large SEP events of solar cycle 23. The large SEP events are separated into two groups, one associated with CMEs running into other CMEs, and the other with CMEs running into the ambient solar wind. SEP events with CME interaction generally have a higher intensity. New possibilities such as the influence of corona) holes on the SEP intensity are also discussed. For example, the presence of a large coronal hole between a well-connected eruption and the solar disk center may render the shock poorly connected because of the interaction between the CME and the coronal hole. This point is illustrated using the 2004 December 3 SEP event delayed by about 12 hours from the onset of the associated CME. There is no other event at the Sun that can be associated with the SEP onset. This event is consistent with the possibility that the coronal hole interaction influences the connectivity of the CMEs that produce SEPs, and hence the intensity of the SEP event.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

DOE OSTI2025

Weather-Driven Resilience for Distribution Systems

With increasing billion dollar disasters due to weather events, it is of utmost priority for utility and grid operators to maintain and enhance the resilience of distribution grid. Traditionally, such analysis were conducted with reliability metrics alone. However, with increasing complexity of distribution grid and advancements in grid edge resources, evaluating grid resilience is challenging and involves multi-faceted analysis of the impact of weather events on the distribution grid. This presentation provides background, details, and future works in the field of weather-driven resilience for power distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2012

Energy Spectra, Composition, and Other Properties of Ground-Level Events During Solar Cycle 23

We report spacecraft measurements of the energy spectra of solar protons and other solar energetic particle properties during the 16 Ground Level Events (GLEs) of Solar Cycle 23. The measurements were made by eight instruments on the ACE, GOES, SAMPBX, and STEREO spacecraft and extend from approximately 0.1 to approximately 500-700 MeV. All of the proton spectra exhibit spectral breaks at energies ranging from approximately 2 to approximately 46 MeV and all are well fit by a double power-law shape. A comparison of GLE events with a larger sample of other solar energetic particle (SEP) events shows that the typical spectral indices are harder in GLE events, with a mean slope of -3.18 at greater than 40 MeV/nuc. In the energy range 45 to 80 MeV/nucleon about approximately 50% of GLE events have properties in common with impulsive He-3-rich SEP events, including enrichments in Ne/O, Fe/O, Ne-22/Ne-20, and elevated mean charge states of Fe. These He-3 rich events contribute to the seed population accelerated by CME-driven shocks. An analysis is presented of whether highly-ionized Fe ions observed in five events could be due to electron stripping during shock acceleration in the low corona. Making use of stripping calculations by others and a coronal density model, we can account for events with mean Fe charge states of (Q(sub Fe) is approximately equal to +20 if the acceleration starts at approximately 1.24-1.6 solar radii, consistent with recent comparisons of CME trajectories and type-II radio bursts. In addition, we suggest that gradual stripping of remnant ions from earlier large SEP events may also contribute a highly-ionized suprathermal seed population. We also discuss how observed SEP spectral slopes relate to the energetics of particle acceleration in GLE and other large SEP events.

Mewaldt, R. A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Large Scale Volcanism: An Explanation for the Heat-death of Venus-like Worlds

Large scale volcanism has played a critical role in the long-term habitability of Earth and possibly Venus. Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs) are in fact the cause of most major extinction events in Earth’s history, contrary to the popular belief about the devastation from large bolides. We examine the timing of Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs) through Earth’s history [1] to estimate the likelihood of nearly simultaneous events that could drive a planet into an extreme moist or runaway greenhouse, quenching subductive plate tectonics. Such events would end volatile cycling and may have driven Venus from a cool temperate state into the heat-death we see today. Using the Earth's LIP record [1] we have found that LIP events are distributed randomly throughout the past 3 billion years. A conservative estimate of the rate of LIPs in a random history statistically the same as Earth’s, pairs and triplets of LIPs closer in time than 0.1-1 million years are likely. This simultaneity threshold is significant to the extent that it is less than the time over which environmental effects have been shown to persist, for example in the Siberian Traps record [2,3]. With the recent mission selections of VERITAS and EnVision it may be possible for their high resolution radar maps to distinguish LIPs in the surface record we can see today on Venus.

Large Igneous Provinces↗

NASA NTRS1999

Evidence for Directly Driven Auroral Signatures Resulting from Interplanetary Pressure Pulses

It has been observed that the auroral signature of the arrival of an interplanetary pressure pulse at the bow shock causes an initial brightening near noon. Consequently, the bright region propagates to the night side via the dawn and dusk flanks. The delay time for subsequent auroral breakup is observed to vary significantly from seconds to hours. We have examined the 1998 and early 1999 interplanetary pressure pulse events recorded by WIND and ACE (over 35 in all) and correlated these with the Polar UVI data for the events that are imaged. Evidence for directly driven auroral activity resulting from an interplanetary pressure pulse will be discussed as well as the variation of the delay time for auroral breakup.

Spann, J. F., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Subsurface stress criticality associated with fluid injection and determined using machine learning

Machine-learning methods and apparatus are disclosed to determine critical state or other parameters related to fluid-driven failure of a terrestrial locale impacted by anthropogenic activities such as hydraulic fracturing, hydrocarbon extraction, wastewater disposal, or geothermal harvesting. Acoustic emission, seismic waves, or other detectable indicators of microscopic processes are sensed. A classifier is trained using time series of microscopic data along with corresponding data of critical state or failure events. In disclosed examples, random forests and artificial neural networks are used, and grid-search or EGO procedures are used for hyperparameter tuning. Once trained, the classifier can be applied to live data from a fluid injection locale in order to assess a frictional state, assess seismic hazard, assess permeability, make predictions regarding a future fluid-driven failure event, or drive engineering solutions for mitigation or remediation. Variations are disclosed.

Johnson, Paul Allan↗

DOE OSTI2026

Envelope-driven comfort risk in residential demand response

Residential demand response (DR) is a valuable resource for grid reliability, but remains challenging because the highly heterogeneous residential building stock leads to widely varying and hard-to-predict load and comfort responses during DR events. Although prior research has estimated the technical potential of DR-capable technologies for achieving energy demand savings, little is known about how they affect thermal comfort. In particular, it remains unclear how indoor thermal conditions due to DR depend on the thermal envelope characteristics of the housing stock. To address this gap, this study provides a systematic, location-specific assessment of indoor thermal performance during DR-events across the US housing stock using both typical DR weather data and detailed building metadata. We evaluate how envelope characteristics influence indoor temperatures during realistic simulated summer and winter DR events across 37 US locations, applying both temperature threshold and rate of temperature change criteria to estimate region-level probabilities of discomfort. Additionally, we show the impact of distinct weather patterns that intensify or abate thermal stress on comfort outcomes. Results show a near-universal overheating risk in summer DR events, where comfort outcomes are strongly influenced by rapid risk of comfort violations. In contrast, overall winter DR discomfort risk is lower, risk escalation is more gradual and shows greater sensitivity to event duration. These findings offer a data-driven quantification of comfort risk across diverse climates and building envelopes, demonstrating the need for region-specific DR scheduling and discomfort mitigation strategies tailored to local weather patterns and the performance of existing residential buildings.

Demand response↗

NASA NTRS1984

Observations of Gulf Stream-induced and wind-driven upwelling in the Georgia Bight using ocean color and infrared imagery

Ocean color and infrared imagery from U2 aircraft and satellite sensors are used to study upwelling interaction between Gulf Stream and continental shelf waters in the Georgia Bight. The photographic data are combined with in situ measurements of currents, chlorophyll, temperature, salinity, coastal winds, and sea-level in observations of five different upwelling events including a near-short wind-driven upwelling caused by topographic effects, three filament-induced upwellings in the Gulf Stream, and a possible meander-induced upwelling event in the Gulf Stream. Chlorophyll distributions are used to trace the circulation and propagation of filaments along the advective routes by which the water moves offshore. Photographic and mooring array measurements of temperature time series are found to provide nearly identical results for the phase speeds of each event. Field measurements of surface pigments, and Nimbus/7 coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) estimates are found to agree well over the range of concentrations 0.1 to 0.7 mg/m to the third. Examples of U2/Ocean Color Scanner and Nimbus 7 CZCS photographs are provided.

Mcclain, C. R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Search for phenomena beyond the Standard Model in events with large $b$-jet multiplicity using the ATLAS detector at the LHC

A search is presented for new phenomena in events characterised by high jet multiplicity, no leptons (electrons or muons), and four or more jets originating from the fragmentation of b -quarks ( b -jets). The search uses 139 fb -1 of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV proton–proton collision data collected by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider during Run 2. The dominant Standard Model background originates from multijet production and is estimated using a data-driven technique based on an extrapolation from events with low b -jet multiplicity to the high b -jet multiplicities used in the search. No significant excess over the Standard Model expectation is observed and 95% confidence-level limits that constrain simplified models of R-parity-violating supersymmetry are determined. The exclusion limits reach 950 GeV in top-squark mass in the models considered.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian High-Rank Hankel Matrix Completion for Nonlinear Synchrophasor Data Recovery

Phasor measurement units (PMUs) provide high temporal-resolution synchrophasor measurements for power system monitoring and control. The frequent data quality issues, such as missing and bad data, prevent the incorporation of synchrophasor data in real-time operations. Most existing data-driven data recovery methods assume the power system dynamics can be approximated by a linear dynamical system, and the recovery performance degrades significantly when the power system is experiencing nonlinear dynamics during significant events. Here, this paper proposes a data-driven Bayesian nonlinear synchrophasor data recovery method (Ba-NSDR) that can recover a consecutive time period of simultaneous data losses or errors across all channels, even when the underlying system is highly nonlinear. The idea is to lift the Hankel matrix of the spatial-temporal synchrophasor data to a higher dimension such that the lifted Hankel matrix is low-rank in that space and can be processed with the kernel trick. Our proposed Bayesian method then infers the probabilistic distributions of synchrophasor from the partial observations. Some distinctive features of Ba-NSDR include an uncertainty index to measure the accuracy of the recovery result and the robustness to parameter selections. Our method is verified on both synthetic and recorded event datasets.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulated nitrogen deposition and precipitation events alter microbial carbon cycling during early stages of litter decomposition

Plant litter decomposition is a major nutrient input to terrestrial ecosystems that is primarily driven by microorganisms. Litter quality is considered a key drive of decomposition; however, human-induced global disturbance like nitrogen deposition and increasing extreme precipitation events will shift nutrient availability during litter decomposition. Little is known about how shifting nutrient availability will impact dissolved organic matter concentrations and microbially driven carbon cycling that are critical to soil organic matter formation. This study investigated the effect of simulated nitrogen deposition and repeated precipitation events on microbially driven carbon flow during short-term litter decomposition using a ‘common garden’ experiment with microcosms containing sand and blue grama grass litter inoculated with different microbial communities. Overall, nitrogen deposition decoupled respiration and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) by increasing respiration and not affecting DOC concentrations. Moreover, nitrogen deposition had no effect on microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE). Repeated simulated precipitation events significantly increased DOC concentrations, decreased microbial CUE, increased the microbial metabolic quotient (qCO2), and altered microbial composition and diversity. These findings highlight the complex interactions and responses of surface litter decomposers to shifting nutrient availability and contradicts previous findings that nitrogen deposition will increase soil carbon sequestration from a larger supply of DOC and reduced respiration.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗