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NASA NTRS2021

Post-Landing Major Element Quantification Using SuperCam Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

The SuperCam instrument on the PerseveranceMars 2020 rover uses a pulsed 1064 nm laser to ablate targets at a distance and conduct laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) by analyzing the light from the resulting plasma. SuperCam LIBS spectra are preprocessed to remove ambient light, noise, and the continuum signal present in LIBS observations. Prior to quantification, spectra are masked to remove noisier spectrometer regions andspectra are normalized to minimize signal fluctuations and effectsof target distance.In some cases, the spectra are also standardized or binned prior to quantification. To determine quantitative elemental compositionsof diverse geologic materials at Jezero crater, Mars, we use a suite of 1198 laboratory spectra of 334 well-characterized reference samples. The samples were selected to span a wide range of compositions and include typical silicate rocks, pure minerals (e.g.,silicates, sulfates, carbonates, oxides),more unusual compositions (e.g.,Mn oreand sodalite), andreplicates of the sintered SuperCam calibration targets (SCCTs) onboardthe rover. For each major element (SiO2, TiO2, Al2O3, FeOT, MgO, CaO, Na2O, K2O), the database was subdivided into five“folds” with similar distributions of the element of interest. One fold was held out as an independent test set, and the remaining fourfolds were used to optimize multivariate regression models relating the spectrum to the composition. We considered a variety of models, and selected several for further investigation for each element, based primarily on the root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) on the test set, when analyzed at 3m. In cases with several models of comparable performance at 3 m, we incorporated the SCCT performance at different distances to choose the preferred model. Shortly after landing on Mars and collecting initial spectra of geologic targets, we selected one model per element. Subsequently, with additional data from geologic targets, some models were revised to ensure results that are more consistent with geochemical constraints. The calibration discussed here is a snapshot of an ongoing effort to deliver the most accurate chemical compositions with SuperCam LIBS.

Mars 2020↗

DOE OSTI2022

Isotherm Modeling and Techno-Economic Analysis of Contactor Technologies for New Tetraamine-Appended MOF for NGCC Applications

Recently, a family of tetraamine-functionalized metal-organic frameworks (MOF) has been reported as promising sorbent materials for capturing CO2 from flue gas conditions relevant to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) applications. The main advantages of these materials are their two-step cooperative CO2 adsorption, which gives rise to unusual two step-shaped CO2 adsorption profiles and their high thermal stability. This work presents the modelling of the two-transition isotherm of the tetraamine-appended MOF, N,N'-bis(3-aminopropyl)-1,4-diaminobutane (3-4-3)-appended Mg2(dobpdc), and the techno-economic analysis (TEA) of carbon capture processes utilizing this sorbent. Due to the unusual isotherm shapes of the experimental CO2 adsorption data for tetraamine-appended Mg2(dobpdc) and the strong nonlinearity of CO2 loading with respect to temperature and pressure, we tested two different models which use logistic functions for representing the different isotherm behaviors in the different pressure ranges. The first model uses the quadratic isotherm model in the low-pressure region, the Langmuir isotherm model in the middle pressure range, and the dual site Langmuir isotherm model in the high-pressure range. To model the transition between regions we used the arctangent functions independent of temperature and the thermal effect was accounted by using the Clausius-Clapeyron relation]. The second model is an extension of the weighted dual-site Langmuir isotherm model presented by Hughes et al.. In this extended model, the dual-site Langmuir isotherm is employed in the three transition regions, using temperature-dependent logistic functions to activate or deactivate the isotherm model in the low, middle, and high-pressure ranges. Both models fit the experimental data quite well with root mean squared errors (RMSE’s) of 0.41 and 0.17 for model 1 and model 2, respectively. Since model 2 resulted in a lower RMSE, it was leveraged for the development of the gas/solid contactor models used by the TEA. Specifically, two different contactor models, an axial-flow fixed bed and moving bed contactor, were developed as part of this work. These models are dynamic, pressure-driven, and consist of mass, energy, and momentum conservation equations. A kinetic model was also developed by performing parameter estimation using experimental fixed bed breakthrough data. These models are then used to simulate CO2 capture processes from the flue gas generated from a ~600 gross MW NGCC power plant. A cost model was developed which considers the capital cost of the reactors and the significant operating costs such as steam and electricity. Using NETL’s Framework for the Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty of Uncertainty and Surrogates tool (FOQUS), which has the capability of linking models built using numerous modelling platforms with derivative-free optimization solvers, a techno-economic optimization of the carbon capture processes was performed which minimizes the cost of capture.

Caballero, Daison↗

DOE OSTI2024

Point Sensor Networks Struggle to Detect and Quantify Short Controlled Releases at Oil and Gas Sites

This study evaluated multiple commercially available continuous monitoring (CM) point sensor network (PSN) solutions under single-blind controlled release testing conducted at operational upstream and midstream oil and natural gas (O&G) sites. During releases, PSNs reported site-level emission rate estimates of 0 kg/h between 38 and 86% of the time. When non-zero site-level emission rate estimates were provided, no linear correlation between the release rate and the reported emission rate estimate was observed. The average, aggregated across all PSN solutions during releases, shows 5% of the mixing ratio readings at downwind sensors were greater than the site’s baseline plus two standard deviations. Four of seven total PSN solutions tested during this field campaign provided site-level emission rate estimates with the site average relative error ranging from −100% to 24% for solution D, −100% to −43% for solution E, −25% for solution F (solution F was only at one site), and −99% to 430% for solution G, with an overall average of −29% across all sites and solutions. Of all the individual site-level emission rate estimates, only 11% were within ±2.5 kg/h of the study team’s best estimate of site-level emissions at the time of the releases.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reducing experimental uncertainty in the calculation of cavity swelling in a transmission electron microscope through crystallographically aided void volume tracking

Accurate measurement of cavity swelling in a transmission electron microscope is essential to define material performance under irradiation, and the conventionally applied spherical assumption for the calculation of cavity volumes in irradiated materials can result in errors ranging between a 25% underestimation and 72% overestimation of volume purely based on the assumption of shape. This assumption is undeniably expedient for calculation but does not sufficiently account for the 3D nature of polyhedral cavities and their shape projection in the transmission electron microscope, and therefore presents too large of an associated uncertainty in swelling determination for faceted cavities. This uncertainty has been defined for many common cavity shapes in FCC and BCC crystal systems, and has been tabulated across the cubic fundamental region. A revised methodology for crystallographically aided void volume tracking, or CAVV-T, is presented and demonstrated on a specimen of neutron irradiated Ni. In-depth discussion on the application of this technique is provided along with resources to allow for conversion between the spherical assumption and this revised method. This work seeks to increase experimental confidence in the characterization and quantification of critical aspects of irradiation damage in materials by applying a crystallographically-resolved approach for cavity swelling calculation.

Haag IV, James V. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty guided online ensemble for non-stationary data streams in fusion science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior with distribution drifts, resulted by both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with such non-stationary data streams. Online learning techniques have been leveraged in other domains, however it has been largely unexplored for fusion applications. In this paper, we investigate online learning for continuous adaptation to drifting data streams in the prediction of Toroidal Field (TF) coils deflection at the DIII-D fusion facility. We further address the short-term performance degradation inherent to standard online learning, which arises because ground truth is unavailable at prediction time. To mitigate this issue, we propose an uncertainty-guided online ensemble framework. The method leverages the Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) for calibrated uncertainty estimation and uses these uncertainty measures to guide a meta-algorithm that aggregates predictions from learners trained over different historical horizons. Our results show that online learning reduces prediction error by 80% compared to a static model. The online ensemble and the proposed uncertainty-guided ensemble further reduce error by approximately 6%, and 10% respectively, relative to standard single-model online learning, while also providing calibrated uncertainty estimates to support operational decision-making.

AI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation

Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2013

Uncertainty Quantification of GEOS-5 L-band Radiative Transfer Model Parameters Using Bayesian Inference and SMOS Observations

Uncertainties in L-band (1.4 GHz) radiative transfer modeling (RTM) affect the simulation of brightness temperatures (Tb) over land and the inversion of satellite-observed Tb into soil moisture retrievals. In particular, accurate estimates of the microwave soil roughness, vegetation opacity and scattering albedo for large-scale applications are difficult to obtain from field studies and often lack an uncertainty estimate. Here, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method is used to determine satellite-scale estimates of RTM parameters and their posterior uncertainty by minimizing the misfit between long-term averages and standard deviations of simulated and observed Tb at a range of incidence angles, at horizontal and vertical polarization, and for morning and evening overpasses. Tb simulations are generated with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) and confronted with Tb observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. The MCMC algorithm suggests that the relative uncertainty of the RTM parameter estimates is typically less than 25 of the maximum a posteriori density (MAP) parameter value. Furthermore, the actual root-mean-square-differences in long-term Tb averages and standard deviations are found consistent with the respective estimated total simulation and observation error standard deviations of m3.1K and s2.4K. It is also shown that the MAP parameter values estimated through MCMC simulation are in close agreement with those obtained with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO).

MCMC↗

NASA NTRS2012

The NEWS Water Cycle Climatology

NASA's Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) program fosters collaborative research towards improved quantification and prediction of water and energy cycle consequences of climate change. In order to measure change, it is first necessary to describe current conditions. The goal of the first phase of the NEWS Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project was to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. The project was a multi-institutional collaboration with more than 20 active contributors. This presentation will describe the results of the water cycle component of the first phase of the project, which include seasonal (monthly) climatologies of water fluxes over land, ocean, and atmosphere at continental and ocean basin scales. The requirement of closure of the water budget (i.e., mass conservation) at various scales was exploited to constrain the flux estimates via an optimization approach that will also be described. Further, error assessments were included with the input datasets, and we examine these in relation to inferred uncertainty in the optimized flux estimates in order to gauge our current ability to close the water budget within an expected uncertainty range.

Rodell, Matthew↗

DOE OSTI2022

Adaptive experimental design for multi-fidelity surrogate modeling of multi-disciplinary systems

We present an adaptive algorithm for constructing surrogate models of multi-disciplinary systems composed of a set of coupled components. With this goal we introduce “coupling” variables with a priori unknown distributions that allow surrogates of each component to be built independently. Once built, the surrogates of the components are combined to form an integrated-surrogate that can be used to predict system-level quantities of interest at a fraction of the cost of the original model. The error in the integrated-surrogate is greedily minimized using an experimental design procedure that allocates the amount of training data, used to construct each component-surrogate, based on the contribution of those surrogates to the error of the integrated-surrogate. Here, the multi-fidelity procedure presented is a generalization of multi-index stochastic collocation that can leverage ensembles of models of varying cost and accuracy, for one or more components, to reduce the computational cost of constructing the integrated-surrogate. Extensive numerical results demonstrate that, for a fixed computational budget, our algorithm is able to produce surrogates that are orders of magnitude more accurate than methods that treat the integrated system as a black-box.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Strong Correspondence in Evapotranspiration and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Between Different Eddy Covariance Systems Enables Quantification of Landscape Heterogeneity in Dryland Fluxes

Abstract The eddy covariance method is widely used to investigate fluxes of energy, water, and carbon dioxide at landscape scales, providing important information on how ecological systems function. Flux measurements quantify ecosystem responses to environmental perturbations and management strategies, including nature‐based climate‐change mitigation measures. However, due to the high cost of conventional instrumentation, most eddy covariance studies employ a single system, limiting spatial representation to the flux footprint. Insufficient replication may be limiting our understanding of ecosystem behavior. To address this limitation, we deployed eight lower‐cost eddy covariance systems in two clusters around two conventional eddy covariance systems in the Chihuahuan Desert of North America for a period of 2 years. These dryland settings characterized by large temperature variations and relatively low carbon dioxide fluxes represented a challenging setting for eddy covariance. We found very good closure of energy and water balance across all systems (within ±9% of unity). We found very good correspondence between the lower‐cost and conventional systems' fluxes of sensible heat (with concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) of ≥0.87), latent energy (evapotranspiration; CCC ≥ 0.89), and useful correspondence in the net ecosystem exchange ((NEE); with CCC ≥ 0.4) at the daily temporal resolution. Relative to the conventional systems, the low‐frequency systems were characterized by a higher level of random error, particularly in the NEE fluxes. Lower‐cost systems can enable wider deployment affording better replication and sampling of spatiotemporal variability at the expense of greater measurement noise that might be limiting for certain applications. Replicated eddy covariance observations may be useful when addressing gaps in the existing monitoring of critical and underrepresented ecosystems and for measuring areas larger than a single flux footprint.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stationary and drone-assisted methane plume localization with dispersion spectroscopy

This work presents stationary and mobile retroreflector-based remote sensing techniques for methane leak localization and quantification using chirped laser dispersion spectroscopy equipped with a custom laser transceiver capable of continuous tracking of a flying drone and coupled with inverse atmospheric gas dispersion modeling. The techniques demonstrate the ability to localize leaks as low as 0.13 g CH 4 ·s -1 , which are up to 25 times smaller than those typically observed at natural gas facilities, as well as actively track a moving retroreflector mounted on a lightweight (~250 g) drone to enable spatial plume reconstruction. This system exhibited a 2.3 ppm-m sensitivity over pathlengths of 40–150 m. Source localization to within ±7 m is demonstrated using a modified horizontal radial plume mapping technique with a stationary retroreflector grid. Meanwhile, the mobile system utilizing a drone-mounted retroreflector is able to localize a controlled release within ±1 m of its source location and estimate leak rates using inversion techniques assuming type B Gaussian plume stability class within ±30% error with respect to the actual low flow rate releases.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS2022

Uncertainty Models for the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method of Uncertainty Quantification; Analysis

There is some level of uncertainty in every finite element model (FEM), which flows to a level of uncertainty in predicted results. The purpose of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is to provide statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. This is distinct from model updating, which attempts to modify models to improve their accuracy. UQ does not improve the accuracy of models, but accepts that the models are inherently inaccurate and attempts to quantify the impact of that inaccuracy on predicted results. Previously, an alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method, was applied to Space Launch System (SLS) Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components to predict system-level statistics for launch vehicle attitude control transfer functions and core stage section loads due to buffet. The HPV method combines a parametric variation of the HCB fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method that randomly varies the HCB mass and stiffness matrices as Wishart random matrix distributions using random matrix theory (RMT). Alternatively, the most common method for modeling uncertainty in the structural dynamics community is a parametric approach, which varies physical parameters in the model. However, there are several disadvantages associated with the parametric method. Determining a reduced set of parameters that have a significant impact on the system response can be time consuming, and the selected parameter probability distributions are rarely reliably known. Therefore, in practice, the parameters are surrogates for the actual errors, and the link to parameter uncertainty is unknown. Another major drawback is that the uncertainty that can be represented is limited to the form of the nominal FEM. It is the experience of the authors that based on numerous aerospace programs, almost all FEM errors are in form rather than parameter values. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of the authors that it is almost never possible to ‘tune’ a FEM to match modal test results by only modifying model parameters. Model-form uncertainty cannot be directly represented by FEM input parameters nor included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using RMT, where a probability distribution is developed for the matrix ensemble of interest. The major advantage of the NPV method is that it covers errors in model form. The HPV method anchors uncertainty at the HCB component level to component modal test results by matching the HCB and test modes based on mode descriptions or other methods, and then applying differing levels of frequency variation. The specific variations depend on the confidence to which a component FEM has been validated through modal testing. The NPV method is layered on the frequency variation to match modal test self-orthogonality and cross-orthogonality (XO) results. Once the component uncertainty models are identified, they are assembled, and the uncertainty is propagated to the system level using a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis approach that generates statistics for system-level predictions This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The second example is an application to a component that is design specific to the SLS. Based on this work and other assessments, the HPV method provides another tool to the toolset used for complex system UQ analysis. From experience gathered to date using the HPV method, additional design specific applications must be investigated to provide further confidence in the validity of the HPV method of UQ analysis.

Uncertainty quantification↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probing Sensitivity of Discharge Characteristics to Model Selection using Uncertainty Quantification in an aprotic Li-Oxygen Battery

Currently, there are several models in the literature, such as kinetic models, microstructural models, and mass transport models that describe a Li-air battery's discharge behavior. Many of these models are calibrated and tested at low current densities and cannot be easily transferred to high current densities. Even at low current densities, there is no quantitative method for a researcher to choose a reaction kinetic model such as classical Butler-Volmer and its derivatives, and modified Marcus-Hush-Chidsey, a resistance model for lithium peroxide such as electron transport via tunneling or linear resistivity, a surface coverage model (lithium peroxide growth) such as partial coverage or full coverage, and mass transport model (discussed in Ref. [1]). Also, it is time-consuming to test different models at high current density (1C) due to a lack of well-tested models and well-calibrated model parameters. For this presentation, we will develop an analytical model, which acts as a surrogate model for a sophisticated finite element model to predict discharge time and discharge voltage. Next, we use an uncertainty quantifying technique called reduced-order stochastic optimization [2, 3] to determine the uncertainty in model parameters for rate kinetics, lithium peroxide resistivity, and parasitic resistance. Finally, a finite element simulation is performed to determine the error introduced by the surrogate model and its influence on the uncertainty in the model parameters.

M Mehta↗

DOE OSTI2021

Post-landing major element quantification using SuperCam laser induced breakdown spectroscopy

The SuperCam instrument on the Perseverance Mars 2020 rover uses a pulsed 1064 nm laser to ablate targets at a distance and conduct laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) by analyzing the light from the resulting plasma. SuperCam LIBS spectra are preprocessed to remove ambient light, noise, and the continuum signal present in LIBS observations. Prior to quantification, spectra are masked to remove noisier spectrometer regions and spectra are normalized to minimize signal fluctuations and effects of target distance. In some cases, the spectra are also standardized or binned prior to quantification. To determine quantitative elemental compositions of diverse geologic materials at Jezero crater, Mars, we use a suite of 1198 laboratory spectra of 334 well-characterized reference samples. The samples were selected to span a wide range of compositions and include typical silicate rocks, pure minerals (e.g., silicates, sulfates, carbonates, oxides), more unusual compositions (e.g., Mn ore and sodalite), and replicates of the sintered SuperCam calibration targets (SCCTs) onboard the rover. For each major element (SiO 2 , TiO 2 , Al 2 O 3 , FeO T , MgO, CaO, Na 2 O, K 2 O), the database was subdivided into five “folds” with similar distributions of the element of interest. One fold was held out as an independent test set, and the remaining four folds were used to optimize multivariate regression models relating the spectrum to the composition. We considered a variety of models, and selected several for further investigation for each element, based primarily on the root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) on the test set, when analyzed at 3 m. In cases with several models of comparable performance at 3 m, we incorporated the SCCT performance at different distances to choose the preferred model. Shortly after landing on Mars and collecting initial spectra of geologic targets, we selected one model per element. Subsequently, with additional data from geologic targets, some models were revised to ensure results that are more consistent with geochemical constraints. The calibration discussed here is a snapshot of an ongoing effort to deliver the most accurate chemical compositions with SuperCam LIBS.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning approaches for instantaneous laser absorptance prediction in additive manufacturing

Abstract The quantification of absorbed light is essential for understanding laser-material interactions and melt pool dynamics in order to minimize defects in additively manufactured metal components. The geometry of a vapor depression formed during laser melting is closely related to laser energy absorption. This relationship has been observed by the state-of-the-art in situ high-speed synchrotron X-ray visualization and integrating sphere radiometry. These two techniques create a temporally resolved dataset consisting of vapor depression images and corresponding laser absorptance. In this work, we propose two different approaches to predict instantaneous laser absorptance. The end-to-end approach uses deep convolutional neural networks to learn implicit features of X-ray images automatically and predict the laser energy absorptance. The two-stage approach uses a semantic segmentation model to engineer geometric features and predict absorptance using classical regression models. While having distinct advantages, both approaches achieved a consistently low mean absolute error of less than 3.3%.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2022

LaSDI: Parametric Latent Space Dynamics Identification

Enabling fast and accurate physical simulations with data has become an important area of computational physics to aid in inverse problems, design-optimization, uncertainty quantification, and other various decision-making applications. This paper presents a data-driven framework for parametric latent space dynamics identification procedure that enables fast and accurate simulations. The parametric model is achieved by building a set of local latent space model and designing an interaction among them. An individual local latent space dynamics model achieves accurate solution in a trust region. By letting the set of trust region to cover the whole parameter space, our model shows an increase in accuracy with an increase in training data. Herein we introduce two different types of interaction mechanisms, i.e., point-wise and region-based approach. Both linear and nonlinear data compression techniques are used. We illustrate the framework of Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI) enable a fast and accurate solution process on various partial differential equations, i.e., Burgers’ equations, radial advection problem, and nonlinear heat conduction problem, achieving 0 (100)x speed-up and 0 (1)% relative error with respect to the corresponding full order models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Leveraging visible and near-infrared spectroelectrochemistry to calibrate a robust model for Vanadium(IV/V) in varying nitric acid and temperature levels

Spectroelectrochemistry and optimal design of experiments can be used to rapidly build accurate models for species quantification and enable a greater level of process awareness. Optical spectroscopy can provide vital elemental and molecular information, but several hurdles must be overcome before it can become a widely adopted analytical method for remote analysis in the nuclear field. Analytes with varying oxidation state, acid concentration, and fluctuating temperature must be efficiently accounted for to minimize time and resources in restrictive hot cell environments. The classic one-factor-at-a-time approach is not suitable for frequent calibration/maintenance operations in this setting. Therefore, a novel alternative was developed to characterize a system containing vanadium(IV/V) (0.01–0.1 M), nitric acid (0.1–4 M), and varying temperatures (20–45 °C). Here, spectroelectrochemistry methods were used to acquire a sample set selected by optimal design of experiments. This new approach allows for the accurate analysis of vanadium and HNO 3 concentration by leveraging UV–Vis–NIR absorption spectroscopy with robust and accurate chemometric models. The top model's root mean squared error of prediction percent values were 3.47%, 4.06%, 3.40%, and 10.9% for V(IV), V(V), HNO 3 , and temperature, respectively. These models, efficiently developed using the designed approach, exhibited strong predictive accuracy for vanadium and acid with varying oxidation states and temperature using only spectrophotometry, which advances current technology for real-world hot cell applications. Additionally, Nernstian analysis of the V(IV/V) standard potential was performed using traditional absorbance methods and multivariate curve resolution (MCR). The successful tests demonstrated that MCR Nernst tests may be valuable in highly convoluted spectral systems to better understand the redox processes' behavior.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2021

Improved representation of the global dust cycle using observational constraints on dust properties and abundance

Even though desert dust is the most abundant aerosol by mass in Earth's atmosphere, atmospheric models struggle to accurately represent its spatial and temporal distribution. These model errors are partially caused by fundamental difficulties in simulating dust emission in coarse-resolution models and in accurately representing dust microphysical properties. Here we mitigate these problems by developing a new methodology that yields an improved representation of the global dust cycle. We present an analytical framework that uses inverse modeling to integrate an ensemble of global model simulations with observational constraints on the dust size distribution, extinction efficiency, and regional dust aerosol optical depth. We then compare the inverse model results against independent measurements of dust surface concentration and deposition flux and find that errors are reduced by approximately a factor of 2 relative to current model simulations of the Northern Hemisphere dust cycle. The inverse model results show smaller improvements in the less dusty Southern Hemisphere, most likely because both the model simulations and the observational constraints used in the inverse model are less accurate. On a global basis, we find that the emission flux of dust with a geometric diameter up to 20 µm (PM20) is approximately 5000 Tg yr−1, which is greater than most models account for. This larger PM20 dust flux is needed to match observational constraints showing a large atmospheric loading of coarse dust. We obtain gridded datasets of dust emission, vertically integrated loading, dust aerosol optical depth, (surface) concentration, and wet and dry deposition fluxes that are resolved by season and particle size. As our results indicate that this dataset is more accurate than current model simulations and the MERRA-2 dust reanalysis product, it can be used to improve quantifications of dust impacts on the Earth system.

Dust cycle↗