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DOE OSTI2020

Ultimate Bifacial Showdown: 75kW Field Results

This work presents one year results for a side-by-side comparison of 5 different bifacial technologies, deployed in a 75-kW single-axis tracked field at Golden, CO. Four PERC (multi and mono) and 1 Silicon Heterojunction manufacturers are represented. Reference strings of equivalent monofacial PV modules are also installed for a direct technology comparison and calculation of bifacial gain. Analysis indicates performance within expectation, with a cumulative model mean error within +/- 2% for both bifacial and monofacial models and cumulative bifacial energy gain between 6-9%. High accuracy string-level DC monitoring and module-level measurements are also presented, showing effects of snow and edge effects in the order of +/- 3% for non-uniform irradiance across the row. Data from a custom-module to measure shading loss from the torque-tube is installed, showing up to 6% irradiance non-uniformity for the month of January.

bifacial field validation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Qualitative and Quantitative Evaluation for Representative Human Reliability Analysis Methods

The Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) is the regulatory expert organization established by the Korean government to strengthen the nation’s technical capabilities relating to nuclear safety regulation. KINS oversees the technical aspects of nuclear safety regulation, including safety reviews, inspections, education, and safety research—all conducted based on technical knowledge and accumulated regulatory experience. In 2023, KINS requested that Idaho National Laboratory (INL) validates representative human reliability analysis (HRA) methods used throughout the world, thus affording KINS with a basis for determining an HRA method adequate for its domestic regulatory purposes. The present paper mainly examines INL’s efforts in this regard. The resulting INL study covered four representative HRA methods widely used by nuclear utilities and regulatory institutes. These methods were qualitatively evaluated by applying specific evaluation criteria and determining how well each method reflected critical HRA issues. For this assessment, INL benchmarked the Halden International HRA Empirical Study. Using the Halden empirical data, along with information on human failure events (HFEs), the present study employed the selected HRA methods to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) for the HFEs. It also performed statistical analyses to compare the HEPs predicted via the HRA methods against those from the Halden empirical data.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Study of Overfitting by Machine Learning Methods Using Generalization Equations

The training error of Machine Learning (ML) methods has been extensively used for performance assessment, and its low values have been used as a main justification for complex methods such as estimator fusion and ensembles, and hyper parameter tuning. We present two practical cases where independent tests indicate that the low training error is more of a reflection of over-fitting rather than the generalization ability. We derive a generic form of the generalization equations that separates the training error terms of ML methods from their epistemic terms that correspond to approximation and learnability properties. It provides a framework to separately account for both terms to ensure an overall high generalization performance. For regression estimation tasks, we derive conditions for performance enhancements achieved by hyper parameter tuning, and fusion and ensemble methods over their constituent methods. We present experimental measurements and ML estimates that illustrate the analytical results for the throughput profile estimation of a data transport infrastructure.

Rao, Nageswara↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

RCT Module 2.03: Counting Errors and Statistics [Slides]

This course will present an overview of measurement processes, and statistical evaluation of both measurements and equipment performance. In addition, this course will address some of the actions to take to minimize the sources of error in count room operations. This course will prepare the student with the skills necessary for RCT qualification.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implementation of a Binary Neural Network on a Passive Array of Magnetic Tunnel Junctions

The increasing scale of neural networks and their growing application space have produced demand for more energy- and memory-efficient artificial-intelligence-specific hardware. Avenues to mitigate the main issue, the von Neumann bottleneck, include in-memory and near-memory architectures, as well as algorithmic approaches. In this report we leverage the low-power and the inherently binary operation of magnetic tunnel junctions (MTJs) to demonstrate neural network hardware inference based on passive arrays of MTJs. In general, transferring a trained network model to hardware for inference is confronted by degradation in performance due to device-to-device variations, write errors, parasitic resistance, and nonidealities in the substrate. To quantify the effect of these hardware realities, we benchmark 300 unique weight matrix solutions of a two-layer perceptron to classify the Wine dataset for both classification accuracy and write fidelity. Despite device imperfections, we achieve software-equivalent accuracy of up to 95.3% with proper tuning of network parameters in 15 x 15 MTJ arrays having a range of device sizes. The success of this tuning process shows that new metrics are needed to characterize the performance and quality of networks reproduced in mixed signal hardware.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa

We report the Eastern Africa region experiences frequent extreme precipitation events that can cause destruction of property and environment, and loss of lives. Thus, there is a need to understand how these events may change in the future and how well the global climate models that are used to make projections can simulate precipitation extremes in this region before they can be used in downscaling or flood and drought impact assessment studies. In this work, we evaluated the ability of sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to simulate present-day precipitation extremes over the Eastern Africa region during the two rainy seasons (March–May and September–November). We used nine extreme precipitation indices (including seven (one) indices of wet (dry) extremes) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The CMIP6 models were evaluated against two gridded observation datasets: Global Precipitation Climatology Project One-Degree Daily Dataset and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42. Three model performance metrics (percentage bias, normalized root-mean-square error, and pattern correlation coefficient) were employed to further assess the strengths and weakness of the models. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble mean generally provides a better representation of observed precipitation and related extremes compared to individual models when considering all metrics and seasons. Several consistent biases are evident across CMIP6 models, which tend to overestimate the total-wet day precipitation and consecutive wet days, and underestimate very wet days and maximum 5-day precipitation in both seasons. Furthermore, no single model consistently performs best, model performance varies with the season and index under consideration and is generally independent of horizontal resolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting spring green-up across diverse North American grasslands

Vegetation phenology influences many ecosystem and climate processes, such as carbon uptake and energy and water cycles. Thus, understanding drivers of vegetation phenology is crucial for predicting current and future impacts of climate change on ecological systems. Existing models can accurately predict the date of spring green-up in temperate forests but tend to perform poorly in grassland systems. We hypothesize this is because most do not incorporate water availability, a primary limiting factor for grassland plants. In this study, we used long-term datasets of digital imagery from the PhenoCam Network of 43 diverse North American grassland sites (195 site-years) to test existing spring phenology models, as well as develop several new models that incorporate precipitation or soil moisture (53 models). As a result, most of the new models performed substantially better, with the best model requiring sufficient accumulated precipitation followed by warm temperatures to trigger spring onset (root mean square error, RMSE, between predicted and observed dates = 16.0 days). Importantly, the best model performed well across all grassland types using a single set of parameters, from temperate to arid grasslands. Since plants are adapted to their local climates, model performance was further improved when parameters were independently optimized for four separate climate regions (RMSE = 10.4 days). Therefore, both sufficient precipitation and temperature are required for grassland green-up, but optimal thresholds vary by region. Running the top model with projected climate data (representative concentration pathway 8.5) suggests that, depending on the climate region, spring onset will occur up to 12 days earlier within 100 years in temperature-limited sites, but the trend is unclear for precipitation-limited sites (3.5 ± 8.0 days later). This new phenology model improves our ability to understand and predict grassland dynamics, with implications for both current and future ecosystem processes related to carbon and water cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Qubit Assignment Using Time Reversal

As quantum computers with large numbers of qubits become increasingly available, experiments executed on a given device may not utilize all available qubits. In this case, the outcome of executing a quantum program will depend on the ability to efficiently select a subset of high-performing physical qubits. For any given quantum program and device there are many ways to assign physical qubits for execution of the program, and assignments will differ in performance due to the variability in quality across qubits and entangling operations on a single device. Evaluating the performance of each assignment using fidelity estimation introduces significant experimental overhead and will be infeasible for many applications, while relying on standard device benchmarks provides incomplete information about the performance of any specific program. Furthermore, the number of possible assignments grows combinatorially in the number of qubits on the device and in the program, motivating the use of heuristic optimization techniques. We demonstrate a practical solution to the problem of qubit assignment by using simulated annealing with a cost function based on the Loschmidt echo, a diagnostic that measures the reversibility of a quantum process. We provide theoretical justification for this choice of cost function by demonstrating that the optimal qubit assignment coincides with the optimal qubit assignment based on state fidelity in the weak error limit, and we provide experimental justification using diagnostics performed on Google’s superconducting qubit devices. We then establish the performance of simulated annealing for qubit assignment using classical simulations of noisy devices as well as optimization experiments performed on a quantum processor. Our results demonstrate that the use of Loschmidt echoes and simulated annealing provides a scalable and flexible approach to optimizing qubit assignment on near-term hardware.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collectedunder structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore,their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distanceto the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensembleof trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fittingobserved in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inversephysical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of thesource strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations ofunderlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collected under structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore, their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distance to the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensemble of trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fitting observed in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inverse physical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of the source strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations of underlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗

DOE OSTI2024

SNL Human Reliability Analysis (Capstone Final Report)

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) requested a measure of possible human error for each state verification method for a safety mechanism performed at partnering production agencies. A team of three human factors individuals were tasked with conducting observations during site visits of both production agencies in order to complete a Human Reliability Analysis (HRA). A HRA will be used because it provides both qualitative and quantitative reports of human error. This report is the first phase of that effort, which will describe the methods which occur at one of the production agencies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improving Progressive Retrieval for HPC Scientific Data using Deep Neural Network

As the disparity between compute and I/O on high-performance computing systems has continued to widen, it has become increasingly difficult to perform post-hoc data analytics on full-resolution scientific simulation data due to the high I/O cost. Error-bounded data decomposition and progressive data retrieval framework has recently been developed to address such a challenge by performing data decomposition before storage and reading only part of the decomposed data when necessary. However, the performance of the progressive retrieval framework has been suffering from the over-pessimistic error control theory, such that the achieved maximum error of recomposed data is significantly lower than the required error. Therefore, more data than required is fetched for recomposition, incurring additional I/O overhead. In order to tackle this issue, we propose a DNN-based progressive retrieval framework that can better identify the minimum amount of data to be retrieved. Our contributions are as follows: 1) We provide an in-depth investigation of the recently developed progressive retrieval framework; 2) We propose two designs of prediction models (named D-MGARD and E-MGARD) to estimate the amount of retrieved data size based on error bounds. 3) We evaluate our proposed solutions using scientific datasets generated by real-world simulations from two domains. Evaluation results demonstrate the effectiveness of our solution in accurately predicting the amount of retrieval data size, as well as the advantages of our solution over the traditional approach to reducing the I/O overhead. Based on our evaluation, our solution is shown to read significantly less data (5% - 40% with D-MGARD, 20% - 80% with E-MGARD).

Wang, Jinzhen↗

DOE OSTI2024

X-ray diffraction under grazing incidence conditions

Material properties frequently relate to structures at or near surfaces, particularly in thin films. As a result, it is essential to understand these structures at the molecular and atomistic levels. The most accurate and widely used techniques for characterizing crystallographic order are based on X-ray diffraction. When dealing with thin films or interfaces, standard approaches, such as single crystal or powder diffraction, are not suitable. However, X-ray diffraction under grazing incidence conditions can provide the required information. Here, in this Primer, grazing incidence X-ray diffraction (GIXD) is comprehensively introduced, starting from basic considerations on X-ray diffraction at crystals with reduced dimensionality and the optical properties of X-rays, followed by a more in-depth description of an experimental performance, including X-ray sources, goniometers and detectors. Experimental errors, limitations and reproducibility are discussed. Various applications, from highly ordered inorganic single crystal surfaces to weakly ordered polymer thin films, are presented to illustrate the potential of GIXD. Data visualizations, representations and evaluation strategies are summarized, based on the example of anthracene thin films. The Primer compiles information relevant to perform high-quality GIXD experiments, evaluate data and interpret results, to extend knowledge about X-ray diffraction from surfaces, interfaces and thin films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing segmentation fairness through curriculum learning and progressive loss: a centralized and federated perspective on radiograph analysis

Bias in medical image segmentation can lead to unequal performance across demographic subgroups, raising concerns about fairness and reliability in clinical AI systems. While deep learning models have achieved high segmentation accuracy, ensuring equitable performance across race and gender remains a significant challenge, particularly in privacy-sensitive healthcare environments. This study investigates fairness-aware medical image segmentation for hip and knee radiographs using deep learning models evaluated in both centralized and Federated Learning (FL) settings. We introduce Curriculum Learning (CL) strategies and Progressive Loss (PL) functions to regulate sample difficulty during training. In addition, we propose two novel fairness-oriented federated learning algorithms, Federated Intersection over Union (FedIoU) and Federated Intersection over Union with Outlier Analysis (FedIoUoutlier). Experiments are conducted using multiple segmentation backbones and simulated multi-site data partitions derived from the Osteoarthritis Initiative dataset. Model performance is evaluated using Intersection over Union (IoU), IoU standard deviation, Skewed Error Ratio (SER), and Min-Max Disparity across race and gender subgroups. Statistical significance was verified using paired t-tests to compare per-sample IoU performance against baseline configurations. Across both hip and knee segmentation tasks, curriculum learning and progressive loss strategies consistently improved segmentation accuracy and reduced demographic performance disparities in centralized training. In federated settings, fairness-aware aggregation further enhanced performance. Notably, FedIoUoutlier combined with balanced curriculum learning and tiered progressive loss achieved the highest mean IoU while yielding the lowest SER and Min-Max Disparity, indicating improved fairness without sacrificing accuracy. In several configurations, federated models matched or exceeded the performance of optimized centralized models, with statistically significant improvements in per-sample IoU over baseline configurations. The results demonstrate that structured training strategies and fairness-aware federated aggregation can jointly improve accuracy, stability, and demographic fairness in medical image segmentation. By integrating curriculum learning, progressive loss, and novel FL algorithms, this work provides a practical pathway toward equitable and privacy-preserving AI systems for medical imaging.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Power Curve Working Group's assessment of wind turbine power performance prediction methods

Wind turbine power production deviates from the reference power curve in real-world atmospheric conditions. Correctly predicting turbine power performance requires models to be validated for a wide range of wind turbines using inflow in different locations. The Share-3 exercise is the most recent intelligence-sharing exercise of the Power Curve Working Group, which aims to advance the modeling of turbine performance. The goal of the exercise is to search for modeling methods that reduce error and uncertainty in power prediction when wind shear and turbulence digress from design conditions. Herein, we analyze data from 55 wind turbine power performance tests from nine contributing organizations with statistical tests to quantify the skills of the prediction-correction methods. We assess the accuracy and precision of four proposed trial methods against the baseline method, which uses the conventional definition of a power curve with wind speed and air density at hub height. The trial methods reduce power-production prediction errors compared to the baseline method at high wind speeds, which contribute heavily to power production; however, the trial methods fail to significantly reduce prediction uncertainty in most meteorological conditions. For the meteorological conditions when a wind turbine produces less than the power its reference power curve suggests, using power deviation matrices leads to more accurate power prediction. We also determine that for more than half of the submissions, the data set has a large influence on the effectiveness of a trial method. Overall, this work affirms the value of data-sharing efforts in advancing power curve modeling and establishes the groundwork for future collaborations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Challenges of Troubleshooting

Troubleshooting work presents electrical and other workers with a challenging combination of physical hazards, working conditions, and time pressure, which can lead to unwanted outcomes if not carefully managed.Summaries of several incidents in which workers were injured or at risk of injury while performing troubleshooting work are presented, identifying organizational weaknesses and error precursors that contributed to each incident.The primary challenges include:Deranged equipment. Equipment that needs troubleshooting is not in a normal operating condition. Actions that are safe when the equipment is in a normal state may not be safe in the deranged state.Work planning and control. The steps taken in troubleshooting are most often determined by the results of the immediately previous diagnostic test, making effective work planning challenging.Multiple types of hazards. Most equipment will present a troubleshooting worker with several types of hazards, including hazardous energy as defined in 29 CFR 1910.147. Portions of the troubleshooting activity may be infeasible without these hazards present.Time pressure. Restoring operation of failed equipment often involves an explicit or implicit sense of urgency.Equipment design and construction. The physical construction of the equipment in large part will determine to which hazards troubleshooters may be exposed. It will also determine which hazards may be encountered while performing the servicing needed to restore the equipment or system to operation.There are effective methods for addressing each challenge, most of which require a combination of advance preparation and management commitment.

Mertz, David E.↗