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At least 415 records · Page 23

An improved error assessment for the GEM-T1 gravitational model

Several tests were designed to determine the correct error variances for the Goddard Earth Model (GEM)-T1 gravitational solution which was derived exclusively from satellite tracking data. The basic method employs both wholly independent and dependent subset data solutions and produces a full field coefficient estimate of the model uncertainties. The GEM-T1 errors were further analyzed using a method based upon eigenvalue-eigenvector analysis which calibrates the entire covariance matrix. Dependent satellite and independent altimetric and surface gravity data sets, as well as independent satellite deep resonance information, confirm essentially the same error assessment. These calibrations (utilizing each of the major data subsets within the solution) yield very stable calibration factors which vary by approximately 10 percent over the range of tests employed. Measurements of gravity anomalies obtained from altimetry were also used directly as observations to show that GEM-T1 is calibrated. The mathematical representation of the covariance error in the presence of unmodeled systematic error effects in the data is analyzed and an optimum weighting technique is developed for these conditions. This technique yields an internal self-calibration of the error model, a process which GEM-T1 is shown to approximate.

Lerch, F. J.↗

An improved error assessment for the GEM-T1 gravitational model

Several tests were designed to determine the correct error variances for the GEM-T1 gravitational solution which was derived exclusively from satellite tracking data. The basic method employs both wholly independent and dependent subset data solutions and produces a full field coefficient by coefficient estimate of the model uncertainties. The GEM-T1 errors were further analyzed using a method based upon eigenvalue-eigenvector analysis which calibrates the entire covariance matrix. Dependent satellite and independent altimetric and surface gravity data sets, as well as independent satellite deep resonance information, confirm essentially the same error assessment.

Lerch, F. J.↗

Computational technology for high-temperature aerospace structures

The status and some recent developments of computational technology for high-temperature aerospace structures are summarized. Discussion focuses on a number of aspects including: goals of computational technology for high-temperature structures; computational material modeling; life prediction methodology; computational modeling of high-temperature composites; error estimation and adaptive improvement strategies; strategies for solution of fluid flow/thermal/structural problems; and probabilistic methods and stochastic modeling approaches, integrated analysis and design. Recent trends in high-performance computing environment are described and the research areas which have high potential for meeting future technological needs are identified.

Noor, A. K.↗

Nimbus-7 Earth radiation budget calibration history. Part 1: The solar channels

The Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) experiment on the Nimbus-7 satellite measured the total solar irradiance plus broadband spectral components on a nearly daily basis from 16 Nov. 1978, until 16 June 1992. Months of additional observations were taken in late 1992 and in 1993. The emphasis is on the electrically self calibrating cavity radiometer, channel 10c, which recorded accurate total solar irradiance measurements over the whole period. The spectral channels did not have inflight calibration adjustment capabilities. These channels can, with some additional corrections, be used for short-term studies (one or two solar rotations - 27 to 60 days), but not for long-term trend analysis. For channel 10c, changing radiometer pointing, the zero offsets, the stability of the gain, the temperature sensitivity, and the influences of other platform instruments are all examined and their effects on the measurements considered. Only the question of relative accuracy (not absolute) is examined. The final channel 10c product is also compared with solar measurements made by independent experiments on other satellites. The Nimbus experiment showed that the mean solar energy was about 0.1 percent (1.4 W/sqm) higher in the excited Sun years of 1979 and 1991 than in the quiet Sun years of 1985 and 1986. The error analysis indicated that the measured long-term trends may be as accurate as +/- 0.005 percent. The worse-case error estimate is +/- 0.03 percent.

Kyle, H. Lee↗

Satellite laser ranging and gravity field modeling accuracy

Gravitational field mismodeling procedures errors in the estimated orbital motion of near Earth satellites. This effect is studied using a linear perturbation approach following the analysis of Kaula. The perturbations in the orbital position as defined by either orbital elements or Cartesian components are determined. From these perturbations it is possible to ascertain the expected signal due to gravitational mismodeling that would be present in station-to-satellite laser ranging measurements. This expected signal has been estimated for the case of the Lageos satellite and using the predicted uncertainties of the GEM-T1 and GEM-T2 gravity field models. The results indicate that observable signal still exists in the laser range residuals given the current accuracy of the range measurements and the accuracy of the gravity field models.

Rosborough, George W.↗

Estimating Uncertainties in the Multi-Instrument SBUV Profile Ozone Merged Data Set

The MOD data set is uniquely qualified for use in long-term ozone analysis because of its long record, high spatial coverage, and consistent instrument design and algorithm. The estimated MOD uncertainty term significantly increases the uncertainty over the statistical error alone. Trends in the post-2000 period are generally positive in the upper stratosphere, but only significant at 1-1.6 hPa. Remaining uncertainties not yet included in the Monte Carlo model are Smoothing Error ( 1 from 10 to 1 hPa) Relative calibration uncertainty between N11 and N17Seasonal cycle differences between SBUV records.

Uncertainties↗

Magnetic field directional discontinuities. 1: Minimum variance errors

Errors associated with the minimum variance analysis of directional discontinuity normal components were investigated using both computer simulation of discontinuities with controlled properties and the examination of current sheets observed by the Mariner 10 spacecraft. The simulated discontinuities were created by adding fluctuations, represented by isotropic noise, to exactly known but varying (in a plane) magnetic field components. An empirical expression for the magnitude of the error in an estimated discontinuity normal component, relative to the total field across the discontinuity, was derived, as well as other relevant statistical properties. Use of the empirical relation in the analysis of 644 discontinuities observed by Mariner 10 provides a more precise, but probably conservative, estimate of an upper bound on the relative normal component value for tangential discontinuities that can be used to separate rotational from tangential discontinuities in studies using only magnetic field data from a single spacecraft, at least for the interplanetary region of space considered.

Lepping, R. P.↗

Decision-directed automatic gain control for MAPSK systems

An automatic gain control (AGC) loop is presented for use with M-ary amplitude and phase shift keying (MAPSK) systems. The gain control amplifier is regulated by an error signal formed by the difference between the estimated amplitude level and the received amplitude level. The AGC performance is thus independent of the short-term average received signal energy. AGC loop analysis and simulation is presented for M-ary amplitude shift keying and quadrature amplitude shift keying. The AGC is shown to have a negligible degradation on the symbol probability of error for most practical cases. A generalized AGC for an arbitrary MAPSK system is presented.

Weber, W. J., III↗

Detection of presence of chemical precursors

Methods and systems for determining if one or more target molecules are present in a gas, by exposing a functionalized carbon nanostructure (CNS) to the gas and measuring an electrical parameter value EPV(n) associated with each of N CNS sub-arrays. In a first embodiment, a most-probable concentration value C(opt) is estimated, and an error value, depending upon differences between the measured values EPV(n) and corresponding values EPV(n;C(opt)) is computed. If the error value is less than a first error threshold value, the system interprets this as indicating that the target molecule is present in a concentration C.apprxeq.C(opt). A second embodiment uses extensive statistical and vector space analysis to estimate target molecule concentration.

Li, Jing↗

Effects of model error on control of large flexible space antenna with comparisons of decoupled and linear quadratic regulator control procedures

An analysis was performed to determine the effects of model error on the control of a large flexible space antenna. Control was achieved by employing two three-axis control-moment gyros (CMG's) located on the antenna column. State variables were estimated by including an observer in the control loop that used attitude and attitude-rate sensors on the column. Errors were assumed to exist in the individual model parameters: modal frequency, modal damping, mode slope (control-influence coefficients), and moment of inertia. Their effects on control-system performance were analyzed either for (1) nulling initial disturbances in the rigid-body modes, or (2) nulling initial disturbances in the first three flexible modes. The study includes the effects on stability, time to null, and control requirements (defined as maximum torque and total momentum), as well as on the accuracy of obtaining initial estimates of the disturbances. The effects on the transients of the undisturbed modes are also included. The results, which are compared for decoupled and linear quadratic regulator (LQR) control procedures, are shown in tabular form, parametric plots, and as sample time histories of modal-amplitude and control responses. Results of the analysis showed that the effects of model errors on the control-system performance were generally comparable for both control procedures. The effect of mode-slope error was the most serious of all model errors.

Hamer, H. A.↗

Verifiable Adaptive Control with Analytical Stability Margins by Optimal Control Modification

This paper presents a verifiable model-reference adaptive control method based on an optimal control formulation for linear uncertain systems. A predictor model is formulated to enable a parameter estimation of the system parametric uncertainty. The adaptation is based on both the tracking error and predictor error. Using a singular perturbation argument, it can be shown that the closed-loop system tends to a linear time invariant model asymptotically under an assumption of fast adaptation. A stability margin analysis is given to estimate a lower bound of the time delay margin using a matrix measure method. Using this analytical method, the free design parameter n of the optimal control modification adaptive law can be determined to meet a specification of stability margin for verification purposes.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗

FLUXNET-CH4 Synthesis Activity: Objectives, Observations, and Future Directions

This paper describes the formation of, and initial results for, a new FLUXNET coordination network for ecosystem-scale methane (CH4) measurements at 60 sites globally, organized by the Global Carbon Project in partnership with other initiatives and regional flux tower networks. The objectives of the effort are presented along with an overview of the coverage of eddy covariance (EC) CH4 flux measurements globally, initial results comparing CH4 fluxes across the sites, and future research directions and needs. Annual estimates of net CH4 fluxes across sites ranged from −0.2 ± 0.02 g C m(exp -2) yr(exp -1) for an upland forest site to 114.9 ± 13.4 g C m(exp -2) yr(exp -1) for an estuarine freshwater marsh, with fluxes exceeding 40 g C m(exp -2) yr(exp -1) at multiple sites. Average annual soil and air temperatures were found to be the strongest predictor of annual CH4 flux across wetland sites globally. Water table position was positively correlated with annual CH4 emissions, although only for wetland sites that were not consistently inundated throughout the year. The ratio of annual CH4 fluxes to ecosystem respiration increased significantly with mean site temperature. Uncertainties in annual CH4 estimates due to gap-filling and random errors were on average ±1.6 g C m(exp -2) yr(exp -1) at 95% confidence, with the relative error decreasing exponentially with increasing flux magnitude across sites. Through the analysis and synthesis of a growing EC CH4 flux database, the controls on ecosystem CH4 fluxes can be better understood, used to inform and validate Earth system models, and reconcile differences between land surface model- and atmospheric-based estimates of CH4 emissions.

Knox, Sara H.↗

Optimum data analysis procedures for Titan 4 and Space Shuttle payload acoustic measurements during lift-off

Analytical expressions have been derived to describe the mean square error in the estimation of the maximum rms value computed from a step-wise (or running) time average of a nonstationary random signal. These analytical expressions have been applied to the problem of selecting the optimum averaging times that will minimize the total mean square errors in estimates of the maximum sound pressure levels measured inside the Titan IV payload fairing (PLF) and the Space Shuttle payload bay (PLB) during lift-off. Based on evaluations of typical Titan IV and Space Shuttle launch data, it has been determined that the optimum averaging times for computing the maximum levels are (1) T (sub o) = 1.14 sec for the maximum overall level, and T(sub oi) = 4.88 f (sub i) (exp -0.2) sec for the maximum 1/3 octave band levels inside the Titan IV PLF, and (2) T (sub o) = 1.65 sec for the maximum overall level, and T (sub oi) = 7.10 f (sub i) (exp -0.2) sec for the maximum 1/3 octave band levels inside the Space Shuttle PLB, where f (sub i) is the 1/3 octave band center frequency. However, the results for both vehicles indicate that the total rms error in the maximum level estimates will be within 25 percent the minimum error for all averaging times within plus or minus 50 percent of the optimum averaging time, so a precise selection of the exact optimum averaging time is not critical. Based on these results, linear averaging times (T) are recommended for computing the maximum sound pressure level during lift-off.

Piersol, Allan G.↗

Pointing control for LDR

One important aspect of the LDR control problem is the possible excitations of structural modes due to random disturbances, mirror chopping, and slewing maneuvers. An analysis was performed to yield a first order estimate of the effects of such dynamic excitations. The analysis involved a study of slewing jitters, chopping jitters, disturbance responses, and pointing errors, making use of a simplified planar LDR model which describes the LDR dynamics on a plane perpendicular to the primary reflector. Briefly, the results indicate that the command slewing profile plays an important role in minimizing the resultant jitter, even to a level acceptable without any control action. An optimal profile should therefore be studied.

Yam, Y.↗

General method for assessing the geographically correlated error for an orbiter with applications to Topex

An estimation based computational algorithm for evaluating geographically dependent orbit determination errors is presented. A derivation is included of the generalized geographically correlated error analysis algorithm and the algorithm is applied to a Topex simulation. Then a general numerical technique which provides the capability to analyze any type of mismodeled parameter with the geopotential as a special case is described. The numerical algorithm is compared with the analytic method of Rosborough (1986) and it is shown that both methods generate consistent geographically dependent orbit error profiles when the ephemeris error is dominated by the mismodeled geopotential.

Wolff, P. J.↗

Navigation accuracy analysis for the TDRSS Onboard Navigation System (TONS) experiment on EP/EUVE

A navigation accuracy analysis of the TONS (TDRSS Onboard Navigation System) experiment on the Explorer Platform/Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EP/EUVE) is reported. The analysis process includes both sequential estimation covariance analysis and the processing of 'realistic' simulated tracking data. The sensitivity of the navigation accuracy to force modeling and measurement errors is evaluated as a function of the tracking schedule and the process noise model tuning parameters.

Gramling, C. J.↗

Utilization of Satellite Data in Land Surface Hydrology: Sensitivity and Assimilation

This paper investigates the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to input meteorological variables, viz- surface air temperature and surface vapor pressure. The sensitivity studies have been carried out for a wide range of land surface variables such as wind speed, leaf area index and surface temperatures. Errors in the surface air temperature and surface vapor pressure result in errors of different signs in the computed potential evapotranspiration. This result has implications for use of estimated values from satellite data or analysis of surface air temperature and surface vapor pressure in large scale hydrological modeling. The comparison of cumulative potential evapotranspiration estimates using ground observations and satellite observations over Manhattan, Kansas for a period of several months shows very little difference between the two. The cumulative differences between the ground based and satellite based estimates of potential evapotranspiration amounted to less that 20mm over a 18 month period and a percentage difference of 15%. The use of satellite estimates of surface skin temperature in hydrological modeling to update the soil moisture using a physical adjustment concept is studied in detail including the extent of changes in soil moisture resulting from the assimilation of surface skin temperature. The soil moisture of the surface layer is adjusted by 0.9mm over a 10 day period as a result of a 3K difference between the predicted and the observed surface temperature. This is a considerable amount given the fact that the top layer can hold only 5mm of water.

Lakshmi, Venkataraman↗

Evaluation of 10‐m Wind Speed From ISD Meteorological Stations and the MERRA‐2 Reanalysis: Impacts on Dust Emission in the Arabian Peninsula

Mineral dust is one of the most important aerosols when studying the radiative balance and climate of the planet. There are different dust emission schemes utilized by the atmospheric modeling communities, many of which disagree on basic output quantities such as mass of dust emitted and distribution of mass among size bins. In this work, we examined mineral dust emission from a leading model scheme, the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART), as utilized in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) Reanalysis and compared it to dust emissions calculated using wind measurements from ground based weather stations located in the Arabian Peninsula that are included in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) integrated surface database (ISD). An intercomparison of 10-m wind speed is shown for the Arabian Peninsula region, differences of the observed and modeled wind field are quantified, and impacts of differences on dust emissions are calculated. This analysis shows 10-m winds in the ISD were generally lower than MERRA-2 winds, which propagated to dust emissions errors. Our estimate of one of the most significant mass impacts in dust emission is 0.178 Tg/year/grid box with a percent change of over 200% to the recalculated dust emissions from MERRA-2. These differences in wind speed propagated to a difference in dust mass emitted by the use of a static source function which aids in scaling the mass emitted by the availability of dust in each grid. Additionally, the magnitude of these differences varies seasonally.

winds↗