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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23

Calibrating Constant Elasticity of Substitution Technologies to Bottom-up Cost Estimates

We propose a method for calibrating an industry-level technology to engineering (bottom-up) estimates with a particular focus on abatement opportunities. As a demonstration, substitution elasticities across inputs are adjusted in the nested cost function for the electricity sector to best fit a target marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve derived from engineering assessments of available technologies. Elasticities are optimized over an entire relevant range of the MAC, whereas current techniques use local point estimates under little or no abatement. In the context of fitting to a given MAC we evaluate alternative nesting structures and find that, while complexity in nesting improves the fit, even relatively simple nesting structures can reasonably approximate the target MAC. In our example, focused on the electricity sector, we find standard elasticities adopted in top-down models moderately overstate abatement costs relative to the engineering targets. In our preferred specification the most important adjustment is to escalate the substitution elasticity between energy and value-added inputs. This is consistent with an argument that the current set of point estimates fail to properly account for new capital-based technologies. These conclusions, however, are sensitive to our assumption about output-intensity abatement and consumer price responsiveness, both of which are not delineated in engineering estimates.

abatement cost↗

Modeling Offshore Wind Farm Performance in Coastal Low-Level Jets Using Coupled Mesoscale-Microscale Large Eddy Simulations

Accurately predicting wind farm reliability under complex offshore atmospheric conditions remains a key challenge, particularly during noncanonical meteorological events such as coastal low-level jets (LLJs). LLJs, characterized by strong nonmonotonic vertical shear and directional veer, depart significantly from the simplified inflow assumptions embedded in conventional design standards, low-fidelity engineering models, and microscale large eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer. In this work, we use the virtual wind farm framework—an exascale, graphics processing unit–accelerated large eddy simulation platform coupled with high-fidelity aeroservoelastic turbine models and advanced mesoscale-microscale coupling via the ExaWind software stack—to investigate turbine responses under realistic LLJ forcing. Simulations are performed over the U.S. North Atlantic offshore domain with the use of meteorological inputs from New York State Energy Research and Development Authority buoy data, focusing on a representative LLJ case impacting the International Energy Agency 15 MW reference turbine. Our results show that LLJs can cause up to 50% power deficits in downstream turbine rows and significantly amplify low-speed shaft and tower loads through nonlinear coupling between complex inflow characteristics and turbine structural dynamics. Two primary mechanisms drive these load amplifications: (1) unique LLJ inflow features—including veer and vertical/lateral shear—and (2) the downstream evolution of the flow under stable thermal stratification, which suppresses turbulence mixing and alters wake recovery. These mechanisms produce streamwise variations in turbine loading not captured by standard hub height–based metrics or existing design load case (DLC) definitions. This study highlights the critical role of rotor-scale flow gradients in driving fatigue and system-level aeroelastic responses, challenging current DLC and control strategies. We advocate the integration of full-flow field, environment-aware wind inputs into load modeling and control algorithms. By leveraging exascale computing to resolve mesoscale-microscale coupling, this work lays the groundwork for next-generation offshore wind turbine design and operation in meteorologically complex marine environments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and demand. Here, for this paper, 16 modeling teams reported resulting emissions projections, energy system evolution, and economic activity. This paper provides an overview of the study, documents the scenario design, provides a roadmap for complementary forthcoming papers from this study, and offers an initial summary and comparison of results for net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios in the United States. We compare various outcomes across models and scenarios, such as emissions, energy use, fuel mix evolution, and technology adoption. Despite disparate model structure and sources for input assumptions, there is broad agreement in energy system trends across models towards deep decarbonization of the electricity sector coupled with increased end-use electrification of buildings, transportation, and to a lesser extent industry. All models deploy negative emissions technologies (e.g., direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in addition to land sinks to achieve net-zero CO 2 emissions. Important differences emerged in the results, showing divergent pathways among end-use sectors with deep electrification and grid decarbonization as necessary but not sufficient conditions to achieve net zero. These differences will be explored in the papers complementing this study to inform efforts to reach net-zero emissions and future research needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

To What Extent Will Decarbonization Deepen the Conversation Between Industry and the Grid?

Decarbonization - the transition away from un-mitigated fossil fuel combustion throughout the economy - requires big changes from both power and process systems. On the power system side, those changes are expected to include large increases in variable generation, e.g., from wind and solar, which has near-zero marginal costs and at large shares can produce infrequent but consequential energy droughts. On the process systems side, industries are investigating their options for direct and indirect electrification, the latter exemplified by replacing fossil fuel inputs with zero-carbon, energy-carrying chemicals like hydrogen and ammonia produced via electrochemical processes. The economic features of these changes within the larger context of power and process systems suggest that their realization could be accompanied by a paradigm shift in how industrial facilities interact with the grid. For example, the dominant type of demand participation in power markets could change from today's focus on load reductions at peak times to a new focus on shifting electricity use, enabled in part by large-scale product storage, to take advantage of renewable energy that would otherwise be curtailed and to avoid consumption during high-price energy droughts. This talk will describe these and other possible design and operational approaches from grid and industrial economic perspectives, culminating in an enumeration of open problems that lie at the interface of today and tomorrow's power and process systems.

co-design↗

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF AN ENGINEERING SCALE HYDROTHERMAL LIQUEFACTION SYSTEM

This work evaluates the Modular Hydrothermal Liquefaction System (MHTLS), an engineering-scale, integrated continuous HTL plant operated at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), for converting realistic wet wastes into energy-dense biocrudes. The production campaigns discussed here processed algae, sewage sludges, lignocellulosic blends, Industrial food waste, and engineered food-waste slurries at 350?°C and around 200?bar, with nominal feed rates of ~12?L?h?¹. We report biocrude yields and composition, establish mass and elemental (C, N) balances, and quantify energy performance via heater duties, heat-exchanger behavior, and system-level efficiencies. Biocrudes contained 76–80?wt?% C (dry, ash-free) with HHVs of 38-41?MJ?kg?¹, substantially higher than feed materials HHVs of 16.6–26.1?MJ?kg?¹ and approaching petroleum fuels. Dry, ash-free biocrude yields of 32–53?wt?% corresponded to 43–71?wt?% carbon yields, with 18–40?wt?% of feed carbon routed to the aqueous phase. Thermal efficiencies were 50-65%, and total energy efficiencies, including reactor heat input, were 35-55%. A counter-current tube-in-tube heat exchanger delivered U values of 200–450?W?m?²?K?¹, with fouling-induced declines impacting heat recovery and heater duty. The analysis highlights three priorities for the process intensification of HTL: robust, fouling-resistant heat recovery, hydrodynamically suitable reactor and heat-exchanger designs, simplified and predictable solids management, and biocrude-water separation.

Biocrude production↗

Techno-Economic Comparison of Molten-Salt Electrolysis and Carbothermic Reduction for the Production of Metallurgical-Grade Silicon

Metallurgical-grade silicon (MG-Si) is an important source material for many industrial applications, including the manufacture of alloys, solar photovoltaics, and electronics. The process to refine raw materials into MG-Si is energy-intensive, with the predominant method of submerged-arc furnaces requiring energy consumption of approximately 11–13 kWh/kg Si. Recent research has discussed promising methods for reducing the energy required for the silicon production process, including the use of molten-salt electrolysis (MSE), a technique that offers potential savings in energy consumption without requiring carbon inputs for the process. This paper presents a techno-economic study of a potential industrial-scale MSE plant for MG-Si production to evaluate the trade-offs between capital and operating costs of the system. Capital costs are sourced from recent MG-Si plants and an existing cost model developed for MSE processes that includes the size of the plant and the operating temperature among its inputs. The results show that MSE technology has the potential to be an economically cost-competitive option for MG-Si production if the technology successfully scales to industrial production and matures enough to allow for financing costs similar to that of a comparably sized submerged-arc furnace plant.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - Simulated Marine Hydrokinetic Tidal Turbine

The U.S. Department of Energy and National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis, hydrogen compression and storage, and variable hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset is part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with other energy technologies. This dataset contains inputs and outputs from simulations of a floating marine hydrokinetic turbine over approximately half a tidal cycle (~6.6 hours). Inflow conditions were derived from field measurements in Alaska’s Cook Inlet and represent a tidal environment in which the current speed ramps from near 0 m/s to a peak of 3 m/s and back. The original acoustic doppler current profiler dataset is publicly available on the Marine and Hydrokinetic Data Repository. In a full tidal cycle, the flow reverses and the rotor would reorient; this reversal was not modeled. In the Cook Inlet campaign , turbulence intensity was similar in both directions. Two inflow cases are included. In the first case, labeled “raw” in the files, the measured current time series was used directly in the InflowWind module of OpenFAST. Speed and direction were applied as a function of time and elevation, uniformly in the horizontal direction. With full spatial coherence, this approach captures high turbulent variability and results in pronounced power fluctuations, so it is considered a conservative, near-worst-case representation of loading. In the second case, labeled “average” in the files, a 30-minute moving average was applied to extract the slowly varying mean speed. The residual fluctuations about this mean were used to generate spatially varying, full-field turbulence inputs with TurbSim, giving a more physically realistic representation of the inflow across the rotor disk. Two random realizations were used to produce distinct inflow conditions for two OpenFAST simulations representing a two-turbine array. The same turbulence intensity is applied across the full time series, producing larger fluctuations at the start and end, where the mean speed is low. The second case is the more appropriate framework for performance and power assessment but overpredicts turbulence at lower flow speeds and underpredicts it at higher speeds. As the floating platform moves and the rotor changes its x-position, Taylor’s frozen turbulence hypothesis used by InflowWind assumes a constant rather than a time-varying mean velocity, introducing some inaccuracy in the velocity plane sampling. The turbine modeled is the 500-kW Reference Model 1, a horizontal-axis two-bladed hydrokinetic turbine on a four-column floating semisubmersible substructure . Simulations were performed using OpenFAST v4.1 with the Reference Open Source Controller (ROSCO) v2.10. All input files required to reproduce the simulations are included. The electrolyzer is a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 system manufactured by Nel . This unit supports up to 2.5 MW, but NLR has only a single 1.25-MW stack. The datasets report hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. The system controls hydrogen production by varying direct current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3,000 A to a minimum safe operating current of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current–voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The simulated tidal turbine time series data was translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz. Each zip file represents a single tidal electrolysis experiment and is named: {technology}_{inflow method}_{number of 500 kW tidal turbines connected} For instance, “tidal-500kW-RM1_average_2.zip” is a 6-hour experiment using the 500-kW tidal reference model, scaled by 2x (1-MW) to better match the electrolyzer maximum of 1.25MW, fed with the 30-minute moving average current case. Each zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file of raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production in kilograms per hour, electrolysis power consumption, and input wave power. A .csv file combines all tidal profiles as "combined_tidal_experiments.csv." A separate experiment, “characterization_200.zip,” shows the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps over 5 hours and is accessible with this entry.

08 HYDROGEN↗

RouteE API

This is the API endpoint for RouteE energy prediction, which can be used to get both single vehicle link or route energy estimates and transportation network-wide energy consumption estimates for a variety of vehicles. This enables external researchers and transportation engineers to access and utilize NREL's growing library of pre-trained vehicle models for prediction of transportation energy consumption. This API provides three endpoints: • /route: Energy estimation of a vehicle over a planning link or sequence of links (route). • /network: Network-wide estimation of energy consumption for all vehicle traffic in the desired area. • /compass: Energy-optimal “eco-routing” between input origin and destination coordinates (Currently in beta for Denver metro area only).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

RouteE API

This is the API endpoint for RouteE energy prediction, which can be used to get both single vehicle link or route energy estimates and transportation network-wide energy consumption estimates for a variety of vehicles. This enables external researchers and transportation engineers to access and utilize NREL's growing library of pre-trained vehicle models for prediction of transportation energy consumption. This API provides three endpoints: - /route: Energy estimation of a vehicle over a planning link or sequence of links (route). - /network: Network-wide estimation of energy consumption for all vehicle traffic in the desired area. - /compass: Energy-optimal “eco-routing” between input origin and destination coordinates (Currently in beta for Denver metro area only).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Deep Learning Coordinate-Free Quantum Chemistry

Computing quantum chemical properties of small molecules and polymers can provide insights valuable to physicists, chemists and biologists when designing new materials, catalysts, biological probes and drugs. Deep learning can compute quantum chemical properties accurately in a fraction of the time required by commonly used methods such as density functional theory (DFT). However, many of these deep learning architectures require energy minimized molecular geometries as input, which is also computationally expensive, and decreasing the reproducibility and throughput of these methods. In this study, we demonstrate that accurate quantum chemical computations can be performed without optimized geometries by operating in the coordinate-free domain using deep learning on graph encodings. Furthermore, we also find that the choice of graph-encoding architecture substantially affects the performance of these methods. The Wave architecture outperforms graph convolution architectures, particularly on complex molecules. Furthermore, the structures of these graph encoding architectures provide an opportunity to probe an important, outstanding question in quantum mechanics: What types of quantum chemical properties can be represented by local-variable models? We find that Wave, a local-variable model, is more accurately calculates quantum chemical properties. Graph convolutional architectures require global variables, and are not as effective as as Wave. We anticipate that coordinate-free, deep-learning models of quantum chemistry will become valuable tools in chemistry and biology, enabling researchers to rapidly screen chemical databases or identify new molecules using automated, de-novo design algorithms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Extracting the distribution amplitude of light pseudoscalar mesons using the HOPE method

The pseudoscalar meson light-cone distribution amplitudes (LCDAs) are essential non-perturbative inputs for a range of high-energy exclusive processes in quantum chromodynamics. In this proceedings, progress towards a determination of the low Mellin moments of the pion and kaon LCDAs by the HOPE Collaboration is reported.

Chang, Alex [National Yang Ming Chiao Tung Univers↗

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Abstract Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait of these complexities. Modeled uncertain input variables include costs of advanced energy technologies, energy efficiency trends, fossil fuel resource availability, elasticities of substitution for labor, capital, and energy across economic sectors, population growth, and labor and capital productivity. The sampled values are simulated through a multi‐sector, multi‐region, recursively dynamic model of the world economy to explore a range of possible future outcomes. We find that many patterns of energy and technology development are possible for various long‐term environmental pathways and that sectoral output for most sectors is little affected through 2050 by the long‐term temperature target, but with tight constraints on emissions, emission intensities must fall much more rapidly. Scenario discovery techniques are applied to the large uncertainty ensembles to explore if there are prevailing storylines behind outcomes of interest. An illustrative investigation focused on different levels of economic growth shows many combinations of pathways and no single storyline emerging for a given economic outcome. This method can be extended to other outcomes of interest, exploring the nature of scenarios with both tail and median outcomes. Sampling from a Monte Carlo generated ensemble provides a rich set of scenarios to investigate, and potentially aids in avoiding heuristic biases in less structured scenario approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Chapter 8: Life-Cycle Testing and Analysis

Prior to a spacecraft launch, program mission assurance standards dictate that the flight battery power system should comply with mission requirements under the intended operating conditions. Ground life cycle testing (LCT) combined with an analysis on the electrical power system (EPS) battery is an empirical method used to demonstrate compliance to satellite service life requirements. The LCT compliance method adopted by the aerospace industry is based on demonstrating a space battery's life expectancy as a part of battery qualification. Real-time cell and lithium-ion battery (LIB) LCT data are commonly used for model inputs to EPS power and energy balance analyses, in LIB reliability analysis estimates, and to support on-orbit spacecraft mission life extension opportunities. This chapter describes the LCT planning steps, process approach, and analysis techniques commonly used to qualify space LIB power systems.

accelerated aging↗

A method to generate heating and cooling schedules based on data from connected thermostats

Internet-connected thermostats are a promising new source of temperature and operational data in homes because they record inside temperatures, setpoints, and HVAC runtimes every five minutes. Over 20 million Internet-connected thermostats have already been installed in American homes. Data from about 20,000 connected thermostats were collected and organized by climate zone, number of occupants, floor area, and day type. A method was developed to create up to 40 representative temperature schedules which, together, can more accurately capture the diversity of heating and cooling behaviors. These results are suitable for input into schedules for building energy simulation models. This information enables more realistic simulations of American heating and cooling behavior, leading to more accurate estimates of energy consumption and savings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Nonperturbative Lorentz violation and field quantization

Regimes of Lorentz-violating effective field theories are studied in which departures from Lorentz symmetry are nonperturbative. Within a free toy theory exhibiting Lorentz breakdown involving an operator of mass dimension three, it is shown that conventional methods suffice to achieve field quantization and Fock-space construction. However, the absence of an observer-invariant energy-positivity condition requires physical input beyond the free theory for the unambiguous identification of a ground state. An investigation of the role of thermodynamics in this context is instigated.

Ground state↗

Nitrogen acquisition and retention pathways in sustainable perennial bioenergy grass cropping systems

Abstract Perennial tall grasses show promise as bioenergy crops due to high productivity and efficient nutrient use. Ongoing research on bioenergy grasses seeks to reduce their reliance on synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer, the manufacture of which relies on fossil fuel combustion. Excessive use of fertilizers also causes adverse environmental consequences and leads to the evolutionary loss of plant traits beneficial to sustainable N cycle. Notably, perennial tall grasses have exhibited the potential to maintain high biomass yield without the need for N fertilizer or causing soil N depletion. Perennial grasses can be adept at interacting with their microbial partners to facilitate N acquisition and retention via mechanisms such as biological N fixation and nitrification inhibition. These inherent N management traits should be preserved and optimized at the this early stage of bioenergy grass breeding programs. This review examines the impact of external N on bioenergy grass production and explores the potential of leveraging advantageous N‐cycling attributes of perennial tall grasses, laying groundwork for future management and research efforts. With minimized dependency on external N input, the cultivation of perennial energy grasses will pave the way toward more resilient agricultural systems and play a significant role in addressing key global energy and environmental challenges.

Agriculture↗

A Machine Learning–Based Tire Life Prediction Framework for Increasing Life of Commercial Vehicle Tires

In the commercial freight industry, tire retreading decisions are often conservative due to limited knowledge of a tire’s remaining service life. This practice leads to increased costs and material waste. This paper proposes a machine learning–based approach for estimating tire casing life and retreadability, focusing on usage data rather than wear information. This approach could extend the tire’s lifespan and reduce landfill waste. Data integration from diverse tire casing measurement sources presents challenges, including imbalanced removal data. Our methodology addresses these challenges by using historical inspection, telematics, and finite element modeling (FEM) datasets. We introduce “Tire Casing Energy” as a comprehensive usage input and apply a Variance-Reduction Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (VR-SMOTE) for data imbalance rectification. A random forest model is used to estimate the state of the tire casing and the casing removal probability, with Bayesian optimization applied for hyperparameter tuning, enhancing model accuracy. Here, the proposed prediction framework is able to differentiate different truck fleets and tire locations based on their usage parameters. With the aid of this machine learning model, the importance and sensitivity of different tire usage parameters can be obtained, which is beneficial to maximize tire life.

Data balancing↗

Investigations of Long-Range Wakefield Effects in a TESLA-type Cryomodule at FAST

The preservation of low emittance of electron beams during transport in the accelerating structures of large facilities is an ongoing challenge. In the cases of the TESLA-type superconducting rf cavities currently used in the European X-ray Free-electron Laser (XFEL) and the under-construction Linac Coherent Light Source upgrade (LCLS-II), off-axis beam transport may result in emittance dilution due to transverse long-range wakefields (LRWs) and short-range wakefields (SRW)***. To investigate such effects, experiments were performed at the Fermilab Accelerator Science and Technology (FAST) facility with its unique configuration of two TESLA-type cavities after the photocathode rf gun followed by an 8-cavity cryomodule CM). We generated beam trajectory changes with the H/V125 corrector set located 4 m upstream of the cryomodule. At 125 pC/bunch, 50 bunches, 25-MeV input, and 100-MeV exit energy, we observed for the first time submacropulse position slews of up to 500 microns at locations ~3 m after the CM and a centroid oscillation at a difference frequency of 240 kHz further downstream. Both are emittance-dilution effects which we mitigated with selective upstream beam steering.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗