Results for “energy forecasting” — Page 23

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of a cloudy cold-air pool in the Columbia River basin in different versions of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model

The accurate forecast of persistent orographic cold-air pools in numerical weather prediction models is essential for the optimal integration of wind energy into the electrical grid during these events. Model development efforts during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) aimed to address the challenges related to this. We evaluated three versions of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model with two different horizontal grid spacings against in situ and remote sensing observations to investigate how developments in physical parameterizations and numerical methods targeted during WFIP2 impacted the simulation of a persistent cold-air pool in the Columbia River basin. Differences amongst model versions were most apparent in simulated temperature and low-level cloud fields during the persistent phase of the cold-air pool. The model developments led to an enhanced low-level cloud cover, resulting in better agreement with the observations. This removed a diurnal cycle in the near-surface temperature bias at stations throughout the basin by reducing a cold bias during the night and a warm bias during the day. However, low-level clouds did not clear sufficiently during daytime in the newest model version, which leaves room for further model developments. The model developments also led to a better representation of the decay of the cold-air pool by slowing down its erosion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

A comparison of observed and model energy balance for an extratropical cyclone system

Eddy kinetic energy budgets are presented for both moist and dry 48 h forecasts and corresponding observations of a developing winter extratropical cyclone. A diagnosis of observational data energetics is presented and compared with model results for an intense, occluding winter cyclone associated with a strong, well-developed jet stream. The nature of the eddy kinetic energy sources and sinks associated with the strong baroclinic development occurring in this cyclonic system is examined, and the extent to which to observed energy sources and sinks are present in the numerical predictions is addressed. The possibility of explaining differences between the observed and predicted cyclone systems by analyzing these kinetic energy properties is considered.

Dare, P. M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microgrid Service Restoration Incorporating Unmonitored Automatic Voltage Controllers and Net Metered Loads

Islanded microgrids may experience voltage and frequency instability due to uncontrolled state changes of voltage regulation devices and inaccurate demand forecasts. Uncontrolled state changes can occur if optimal microgrid restoration and dispatch algorithms, used for generating control commands for distributed energy resources, do not incorporate the behavior of automatic controllers of voltage regulation devices. Inaccurate demand forecasts may be encountered since post-outage demand of behind-the-meter net metered (NM) loads can vary significantly from their historical NM profiles. Here, this paper proposes an optimization formulation which allows optimal control of voltage regulators and capacitor banks without remote control and communication capabilities. A generalized demand model for NM loads is proposed which incorporates the cold load pickup phenomenon and their time varying post-outage demand in accordance with the IEEE 1547 standard. The time dependent optimal control formulation and the NM demand model are integrated in a sequential microgrid restoration algorithm by linearization of the involved logic propositions. A detailed case study on the unbalanced IEEE 123-node test system in OpenDSS validates the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating WRF-Solar EPS cloud mask forecast using the NSRDB

Improving the accuracy of day-ahead solar forecasts using numerical weather prediction models requires improving the forecasting of cloud occurrence and properties. Validating cloud forecasts is challenging because this requires evaluating different types of clouds over a wide variety of regions. This study analyzes the cloud occurrence (or cloud mask) over the contiguous United States (CONUS), predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), to identify the strengths and limitations of the model in reproducing cloud fields. To enable the in-depth analysis of cloud mask forecasts covering CONUS, we use satellite observations from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Two evaluation methods are implemented to consider all clouds and partially removed clouds from the 2-km NSRDB in evaluating the 9-km WRF-Solar EPS cloud mask. Cloud detection metrics as well as the frequency of cloud occurrence are used to quantify the monthly performance of WRF-Solar EPS. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is used to assess the model's capability to predict different types of clouds, which are classified using three levels of cloud optical depth (COD) and cloud top height (CTH). The day-ahead forecasts covering the full year of 2018 demonstrate that WRF-Solar EPS produces MCFs ranging from 27%-46%, 13%-34%, and 8%-19% for thin, mid-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively. For three CTH levels, the model shows MCFs ranging from 19%-46%, 16%-33%, and 8%-27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively. This comprehensive characterization of model performance helps identify model weakness and will eventually lead to improvements in cloud and solar radiation forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Solar Power + Electric Vehicle Charging: Capturing Synergies in Minnesota

Despite the state policy support, significant market barriers to decarbonization of transportation remain. Analysis conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and others confirm that without routine access to charging infrastructure, both at home and in non-residential locations, bullish market forecasts are unlikely to materialize. Similarly, the expansion of EV charging and variable renewable energy deployment each have potentially disruptive and costly effects on the distribution grid. Finally, electrification of passenger vehicles is not enough to decarbonize transportation without pathways to carbon-free electrification, linking EV charging and clean energy generation. This document examines the opportunity to jointly deploy solar energy and EV charging infrastructure to capture synergistic value, mitigate for risks associated with integrating and scaling both solar and EV charging, and accelerate their mutual deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating GXS Impact in the Context of International Coordination

The proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) program plans to include a hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounder on its central satellite. Expected to launch in the mid-2030s, the GeoXO Sounder (GXS) will join international counterparts in a geostationary orbit. Ahead of launch, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) assessed the potential effectiveness of GXS both as a single GEO IR sounder and as part of a global ring of such instruments, including those already being built by international agencies. Using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework, GXS was assessed from a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) perspective. The ability of GXS, both alone and as part of a global ring of GEO sounders, to improve weather prediction of thermodynamic variables was evaluated globally and regionally. Compared to a control, GXS dominated regional analysis and forecast improvements, and contributed significantly to global increases in forecast skill. However, more sustained global improvements on the order of 4 days rely on international partnerships. Using the FSOI metric over CONUS, the GXS observations provide the strongest radiance impact on the moist energy error norm reduction. Additionally, GXS shows the capability to improve hurricane forecast track errors, resulting in improved forecast warnings. Overall, the persistent atmospheric profile information from GXS over much of the western hemisphere provide an opportunity to improve the representation of weather systems and their forecasts.

Erica McGrath-Spangler↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating the Impact of Geostationary Sounders in the Context of International Coordination

The proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) program plans to include a hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounder (GXS) on its central satellite, joining international counterparts. Ahead of launch, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) assessed the potential effectiveness of GXS both as a lone sounder in a GEO orbit and as part of a global ring of such instruments. Using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework from a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) perspective, the ability of GXS and the global ring to improve weather prediction of thermodynamic variables was assessed both globally and regionally. GXS dominated regional analysis and forecast improvements and contributed significantly to global increases in forecast skill. However, more sustained global improvements on the order of 4 days rely on international partnerships. Over CONUS, the FSOI metric showed the GXS observations provide the strongest radiance impact on the moist energy error norm reduction. Additionally, GXS shows the capability to improve hurricane forecast track errors, resulting in improved forecast warnings. Overall, the persistent atmospheric profile information from GXS over much of the western hemisphere provide an opportunity to improve the representation of weather systems and their forecasts.

Erica L. McGrath-Spangler↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating the Impact of Geostationary Sounders in the Context of International Coordination

The proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) program plans to include a hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounder (GXS) on its central satellite, joining international counterparts. Ahead of launch, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) assessed the potential effectiveness of GXS both as a lone sounder in a GEO orbit and as part of a global ring of such instruments. Using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework from a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) perspective, the ability of GXS and the global ring to improve weather prediction of thermodynamic variables was assessed both globally and regionally. GXS dominated regional analysis and forecast improvements and contributed significantly to global increases in forecast skill. However, more sustained global improvements on the order of 4 days rely on international partnerships. Over CONUS, the FSOI metric showed the GXS observations provide the strongest radiance impact on the moist energy error norm reduction. Additionally, GXS shows the capability to improve hurricane forecast track errors, resulting in improved forecast warnings. Overall, the persistent atmospheric profile information from GXS over much of the western hemisphere provide an opportunity to improve the representation of weather systems and their forecasts.

Erica McGrath-Spangler↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating GXS Impact in the Context of International Coordination

The proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) program plans to include a hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounder on its central satellite. Expected to launch in the mid-2030s, the GeoXO Sounder (GXS) will join international counterparts in a geostationary orbit. Ahead of launch, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) assessed the potential effectiveness of GXS both as a single GEO IR sounder and as part of a global ring of such instruments, including those already being built by international agencies. Using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework, GXS was assessed from a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) perspective. The ability of GXS, both alone and as part of a global ring of GEO sounders, to improve weather prediction of thermodynamic variables was evaluated globally and regionally. Compared to a control, GXS dominated regional analysis and forecast improvements, and contributed significantly to global increases in forecast skill. However, more sustained global improvements on the order of 4 days rely on international partnerships. Using the FSOI metric over CONUS, the GXS observations provide the strongest radiance impact on the moist energy error norm reduction. Additionally, GXS shows the capability to improve hurricane forecast track errors, resulting in improved forecast warnings. Overall, the persistent atmospheric profile information from GXS over much of the western hemisphere provide an opportunity to improve the representation of weather systems and their forecasts.

Erica McGrath-Spangler↗

DOE OSTI2023

Managing Uncertainty and Flexibility in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets

Net load imbalances from day ahead forecasts can lead to significant grid operations costs and are expected to increase as variable renewable energy adoption grows. We propose a new wholesale market product to manage the risk of net load imbalances called Flexibility Options. This product relies on probabilistic forecasts to estimate flexibility demand and would be co-optimized in the day-ahead market. We also propose stochastic methods that enable DER and flexible load aggregators to participate in flexibility markets while considering the uncertainty in weather and occupant behavior.

day-ahead market↗

DOE OSTI2020

Offshore Wind Project Study (Final Technical Report)

Within the Long Island electric service territory and throughout New York State there is increasing interest in and mandate for increasing clean energy technologies and renewable energy generation while reducing dependency on fossil fuels for electric production with goal of a carbon free system by 2040. This report discusses the implications of the reduction of forecasted load in the Long Island electric service territory and the impact of energy efficiency; increasing reliance of wind and other renewable resources on the transmission system; opportunities for interconnecting these resources; and reductions on the reliance of baseload fossil fueled power facilities over the coming years.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of Wind Turbine Array Downstream Effects to the Parameterization Used in WRF

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model has been extensively used for wind energy applications, and current releases include a scheme that can be applied to examine the effects of wind turbine arrays on the atmospheric flow and electricity generation from wind turbines. Herein we present a high-resolution simulation using two different wind farm parameterizations: 1) the “Fitch” parameterization that is included in WRF releases and 2) the recently developed Explicit Wake Parameterization (EWP) scheme. We compare the schemes using a single yearlong simulation for a domain centered on the highest density of current turbine deployments in the contiguous United States (Iowa). Pairwise analyses are applied to diagnose the downstream wake effects and impact of wind turbine arrays on near-surface climate conditions. On average, use of the EWP scheme results in small-magnitude wake effects within wind farm arrays and faster recovery of full WT array wakes. This in turn leads to smaller impacts on near-surface climate variables and reduced array–array interactions, which at a systemwide scale lead to summertime capacity factors (i.e., the electrical power produced relative to nameplate installed capacity) that are 2%–3% higher than those from the more commonly applied Fitch parameterization. It is currently not possible to make recommendations with regard to which wind farm parameterization exhibits higher fidelity or to draw inferences with regard to whether the relative performance may vary with prevailing climate conditions and/or wind turbine deployment configuration. However, the sensitivities documented herein to the wind farm parameterization are of sufficient magnitude to potentially influence wind turbine array siting decisions. Thus, our research findings imply high value in undertaking combined long-term high-fidelity observational studies in support of model validation and verification.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1972

The flare forecasting fiasco: Is everybody looking at the same sun?

The passionate dream of the oppressed solar flare forecaster is the scientific discovery of the cause, the energy source, and the observable antecedent conditions for the solar flare. This tunnel vision has had a profound and deleterious effect on the state-of-the-art. It has diverted attention from many promising approaches and relegated them to limbo. More importantly, it has actually inhibited the scientific search for the underlying physical mechanisms. Examples of neglected aspects of the problem cover the entire range from observing techniques and equipment to the availability and accuracy of the archived scientific data. A cursory inspection of this data leads to an obvious conclusion: there are at least two suns up there.

Ward, F. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Use of VAS data to diagnose the mesoscale environment of convective storms

The utility of VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) retrieval datasets for mesoscale analysis is explored. A detailed mesoscale air mass analysis method is presented in which VAS soundings, satellite imagery, and conventional surface data are used to diagnose mesoscale differences in air mass character. Comparisons are made with radiosonde observations of the same air mass differences. A mesoscale air mass analysis is presented with a discussion of the role that the various air masses play in subsequent convective development. In a second technique, several VAS-derived thermodynamic parameters, such as positive and negative buoyant energy, are shown to be well suited to operational forecasting of convective storm development and evolution. The derivation of these parameters and their applications in forecasting are illustrated.

Zehr, Raymond M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The Role of Crack Formation in Chevron-Notched Four-Point Bend Specimens

The failure sequence following crack formation in a chevron-notched four-point bend 1 specimen is examined in a parametric study using the Bluhm slice synthesis model. Premature failure resulting from crack formation forces which exceed those required to propagate a crack beyond alpha (min) is examined together with the critical crack length and critical crack front length. An energy based approach is used to establish factors which forecast the tendency of such premature failure due to crack formation for any selected chevron-notched geometry. A comparative study reveals that, for constant values of alpha (1) and alpha (0), the dimensionless beam compliance and stress intensity factor are essentially independent of specimen width and thickness. The chevron tip position, alpha (0) has its primary effect on the force required to initiate a sharp crack. Small values for alpha (0) maximize the stable region length, however, the premature failure tendency is also high for smaller alpha (0) values. Improvements in premature failure resistance can be realized for larger values of alpha (0) with only a minor reduction in the stable region length. The stable region length is also maximized for larger chevron based positions, alpha (1) but the chance for premature failure is also raised. Smaller base positions improve the premature failure resistance with only minor decreases in the stable region length. Chevron geometries having a good balance of premature failure resistance, stable region length, and crack front length are 0.20 less than or equal to alpha (0) is less than or equal to 0.30 and 0.70 is less than or equal to alpha (1) is less than or equal to 0.80.

Calomino, Anthony M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Calibration Plans for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM)

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is an international effort led by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the U.S.A. and the National Space Development Agency of Japan (NASDA) for the purpose of improving research into the global water and energy cycle. GPM will improve climate, weather, and hydrological forecasts through more frequent and more accurate measurement of precipitation world-wide. Comprised of U.S. domestic and international partners, GPM will incorporate and assimilate data streams from many spacecraft with varied orbital characteristics and instrument capabilities. Two of the satellites will be provided directly by GPM, the core satellite and a constellation member. The core satellite, at the heart of GPM, is scheduled for launch in November 2007. The core will carry a conical scanning microwave radiometer, the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI), and a two-frequency cross-track-scanning radar, the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR). The passive microwave channels and the two radar frequencies of the core are carefully chosen for investigating the varying character of precipitation over ocean and land, and from the tropics to the high-latitudes. The DPR will enable microphysical characterization and three-dimensional profiling of precipitation. The GPM-provided constellation spacecraft will carry a GMI radiometer identical to that on the core spacecraft. This paper presents calibration plans for the GPM, including on-board instrument calibration, external calibration methods, and the role of ground validation. Particular emphasis is on plans for inter-satellite calibration of the GPM constellation. With its Unique instrument capabilities, the core spacecraft will serve as a calibration transfer standard to the GPM constellation. In particular the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar aboard the core will check the accuracy of retrievals from the GMI radiometer and will enable improvement of the radiometer retrievals. Observational intersections of the core with the constellation spacecraft are essential in applying this technique to the member satellites. Information from core spacecraft retrievals during intersection events will be transferred to the constellation radiometer instruments in the form of improved calibration and, with experience, improved radiometric algorithms. In preparation for the transfer standard technique, comparisons using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) with sun-synchronous radiometers have been conducted. Ongoing research involves study of critical variables in the inter-comparison, such as correlation with spatial-temporal separation of intersection events, frequency of intersection events, variable azimuth look angles, and variable resolution cells for the various sensors.

Bidwell, S. W.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Challenges of cloud-prone and rainy areas remote sensing

Provide, from space, the first global survey of cloud profiles (height, thickness) and cloud physical properties (water, ice, precipitation) needed to evaluate and improve the way clouds, moisture and energy are represented in global models used for weather forecasts and climate prediction.

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2014

Automating the SMAP Ground Data System to Support Lights-Out Operations

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission is a first tier mission in NASA's Earth Science Decadal Survey. SMAP will provide a global mapping of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw states. This mapping will be used to enhance the understanding of processes that link the terrestrial water, energy, and carbon cycles, and to enhance weather and forecast capabilities. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has been selected as the lead center for the development and operation of SMAP. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has an extensive history of successful deep space exploration. JPL missions have typically been large scale Class A missions with significant budget and staffing. SMAP represents a new area of JPL focus towards low cost Earth science missions. Success in this new area requires changes to the way that JPL has traditionally provided the Mission Operations System (MOS)/Ground Data System (GDS) functions. The operation of SMAP requires more routine operations activities and support for higher data rates and data volumes than have been achieved in the past. These activities must be addressed by a reduced operations team and support staff. To meet this challenge, the SMAP ground data system provides automation that will perform unattended operations, including automated commanding of the SMAP spacecraft.

GDS↗