Results for “empirical data” — Page 23

NASA NTRS2021

Half of global methane emissions come from highly variable aquatic ecosystem sources

Atmospheric methane is a potent greenhouse gas that plays a major role in controlling the Earth’s climate. The causes of the renewed increase of methane concentration since 2007 are uncertain given the multiple sources and complex biogeochemistry. Here, we present a metadata analysis of methane fluxes from all major natural, impacted and human-made aquatic ecosystems. Our revised bottom-up global aquatic methane emissions combine diffusive, ebullitive and/or plant-mediated fluxes from 15 aquatic ecosystems. We emphasize the high variability of methane fluxes within and between aquatic ecosystems and a positively skewed distribution of empirical data, making global estimates sensitive to statistical assumptions and sampling design. We find aquatic ecosystems contribute (median) 41% or (mean) 53% of total global methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. We show that methane emissions increase from natural to impacted aquatic ecosystems and from coastal to freshwater ecosystems. We argue that aquatic emissions will probably increase due to urbanization, eutrophication and positive climate feedbacks and suggest changes in land-use management as potential mitigation strategies to reduce aquatic methane emissions.

aquatic ecosystem↗

NASA NTRS2022

An Algorithm for Statistical Audibility Prediction (SAP) of an Arbitrary Signal in the Presence of Noise

A method for predicting the audibility of an arbitrary time-varying noise (signal) in the presence of masking noise has been developed. The statistical audibility prediction (SAP) method relies on the specific loudness, or loudness perceived through the individual auditory filters, for accurate statistical estimation of audibility vs. time. More recent development has focused on derivation and inclusion of frequency-dependent correction factors in SAP’s model to account for the ability to hear signals below the level of the masking noise. Audibility prediction vs. time is intuitive since it captures changes in audibility with time as it occurs, which is critical for the study of human response to noise. Concurrently time-frequency prediction of audibility may also provide valuable information about the root cause(s) for audibility useful for the design and operation of sources of noise. Empirical data, gathered under a three-alternative forced-choice (3AFC) test paradigm for low-frequency sound, has been used to examine the accuracy of SAP.

audibility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Planetary Protection at Marshall Space Flight Center

Introduction: NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is historically known for its role in propulsion. While this is still the mainstay of MSFC’s expertise, many unique capabilities exist at MSFC which pertain to Planetary Protection (PP), including 1) identifying PP threats, and 2) developing novel methods to neutralize those threats. Furthermore, because these capabilities exist among diverse groups at MSFC, this work promotes collaboration both within and outside MSFC to expand and develop PP studies related to a full spectrum of NASA research, design, manufacture, and test interests. This abstract describes the PP research ongoing at MSFC and describes how it contributes to NASA’s overall PP objectives. Microbial Identification in Cleanrooms: One of the greatest threats to successful implementation of PP requirements is recontamination post bioburden reduction. One method to prevent recontamination is to keep the spacecraft in clean environments (i.e. cleanrooms) as much as possible during assembly and integration. However, cleanrooms are not without their own sources of contamination, which is why NASA is interested in monitoring the cleanliness of cleanrooms and characterizing the microbial species present. Such information allows a greater understanding of the resistance of these microbes to cleaning methods, as well as the risk of their contaminating the targeted planetary body of a given mission. MSFC has multiple cleanrooms of various ISO cleanliness levels onsite. We sampled the air and surfaces of three of these rooms, isolated microbes, and then sequenced the 16S rRNA gene or ITS region of the 18S rRNA gene for bacterial and fungal isolates, respectively. This has resulted in a microbial library which currently includes nearly 100 isolates. Microbial Enumeration of Spacecraft Materials: Currently, there are only a couple bioburden reduction methods approved by NASA, and often the harshness of these methods presents additional concerns or risks related to material properties. The goal of this research is to assess the microbial content of solid rocket motor (SRM) materials potentially used for lander missions. This work aims to more accurately define the risk of planetary contamination by providing empirical data associated with commonly used SRM raw materials. In this study, we pulverized nonmetallic SRM materials using a cryogenic grinder, then analyzed the resulting substrate for microbial colony forming units (CFU). We found that many SRM nonmetallic materials do not harbor detectable bioburden, though a range existed depending on the material. The results from this work provide quantitative data to potentially reduce concerns of contamination, while also providing a foundation for follow up studies into additional sterilization methods and molecular identification of contaminating microbes. Space Environmental Effects on Microbial Survival: One potential area of microbial reduction is the space environment. Understanding the survivability of hardy microbes in space-like conditions is a crucial first step in answering how space may reduce bioburden and if it can be relied upon for adherence to PP requirements. This work studied the effects of ultraviolet (UV) and ionizing radiation on survival of Bacillus atrophaeus spores. Microbes were dried on relevant polymeric materials then exposed to space environmental stressors. Coupons were submerged in water, diluted, and plated to determine survival compared with controls. We found that both UV and ionizing radiation were capable of reducing viability by nearly 99%, but there were still survivors, some with changed morphology indicating resistance mechanisms within certain cells. Manufacturing credit: Finally, given the above-mentioned limitations of the NASA-approved bioburden reduction methods, there is interest in understanding if manufacturing processes may provide enough bioburden reduction without additional PP-specific bakeouts. For instance, some material additives may be antimicrobial. Given this, we investigated the effects of several commonly used rubber additives on the growth of B. atrophaeus spores. We found that some of the materials inhibited growth of the spores, possibly supporting the use of these additives on missions with PP constraints. Future work into manufacturing credit for bioburden reduction includes inoculation of green insulation with B. atrophaeus spores, followed by a typical cure. Thermal profiles will be verified for appropriate temperature and durations to meet PP requirements, and cured samples will be analyzed using a cryogenic grinder to determine survivability of spores.

Chelsi D. Cassilly↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advances in Entry Modeling for Impact Risk Assessment

A summary of recent advancements in the detailed modeling of asteroid atmospheric entry processes made through NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is presented. Understanding, and accurately modeling these processes and their associated uncertainties is critical to predicting all downstream impact effects, such as blast wave and thermal damage footprints. Furthermore, there is (perhaps thankfully) a dearth of empirical data for large impactors of the kind that would pose a threat to human populations, on which to anchor and/or validate models used in risk assessments. Therefore, we must rely heavily on detailed theoretical and numerical modeling to develop robust assessments for decision makers. To that end, ATAP has made some significant progress in advancing the capabilities in this area. Two areas in particular are highlighted in the present work: meteoroid ablation mechanisms, and bolide luminosity. The first research area – meteoroid ablation mechanisms – has focused on performing novel high-enthalpy wind tunnel experiments on meteorites and meteorite analogs, and utilizing the resulting data to develop high-fidelity models for impactor mass loss at scale. These efforts have resulted in several insights. Of note, these data suggest a differential vaporization process where volatiles are liberated preferentially when the asteroidal material is subject to high heat, while refractory components remain in the molten layer on the surface. A numerical model has been developed which considers this phenomena, and its effect on the bulk impactors effective heat of ablation is examined. The second research thrust that is discussed is focused on accurate modeling of impactor radiation phenomena. While another submission to the conference will discuss the application of our approach to thermal ground damage modeling, here, we present an overview of our extensive efforts to utilize available ground- and space-based observations of large bolides (~1m diameter, and above) to inform and validate our detailed modeling approaches. These methods have been shown to accurately reconstruct the detailed spectra for the Benesov bolide, as well as approximate the burn footprint for the Tunguska event. Recent effort has focused on reconciling light curve data from multiple sources (all-sky camera networks, GLM, US government sensors), using our validated model, and providing a calibrated model for luminous efficiency which can then be utilized to infer impactor properties such as shape, mass, and composition. This work will be demonstrated through an exemplar case study focusing on a large bolide event with observational data (e.g. Chelyabinsk, Flensburg, etc.). Finally, our team’s assessment on the current maturity of atmospheric entry models, and priorities for future research will be provided.

ATAP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Anatomy of Software Changes and Bugs in Autonomous Operating System

Cyberphysical systems with autonomous functions are complex pieces of software, consisting of many components, some of which implement autonomous functionality and some may use AI or machine learning algorithms. Software bugs in an autonomous system are of particular concern, as they can have catastrophic consequences. However, detailed studies based on empirical data are rare and therefore these bugs are not well understood. This paper aims to contribute towards filling that gap by investigating the software changes and bugs in Autonomy Operating System (AOS) for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), which consist of 26 components containing about 103,000 lines of code and having a total of 772 bugfixes. Based on the data extracted from the code repository and semi-structured interviews with the developers of AOS, we explore the differences among autonomous software components, components developed using Model-based Software Engineering, and reuse with respect to change proneness, fault proneness, distribution of bugfixes among AOS components and files of these components, and characteristics of bugs of different AOS components. Our results show that the autonomous components were significantly more change prone (measured in number of commits and code churn) and fault prone (measured in bugfixes per KLoC) than non-autonomous components. The distribution of the locations of bugfixes was skewed, both at component and file level (i.e., a small number of components / files contained the majority of bugs). These evidence-based findings provide important insights to researchers and practitioners alike and can be used to efficiently improve the quality and reliability of autonomous systems.

Katerina Goseva-Popstojanova↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advances in Entry Modeling for Impact Risk Assessment

A summary of recent advancements in the detailed modeling of asteroid atmospheric entry processes made through NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is presented. Understanding, and accurately modeling these processes and their associated uncertainties is critical to predicting all downstream impact effects, such as blast wave and thermal damage footprints. Furthermore, there is (perhaps thankfully) a dearth of empirical data for large impactors of the kind that would pose a threat to human populations, on which to anchor and/or validate models used in risk assessments. Therefore, we must rely heavily on detailed theoretical and numerical modeling to develop robust assessments for decision makers. To that end, ATAP has made some significant progress in advancing the capabilities in this area. Two areas in particular are highlighted in the present work: meteoroid ablation mechanisms, and bolide luminosity.

ATAP↗

NASA NTRS2023

Efficient Calibration of Expensive Computational Models

Accounting for uncertainty when calibrating expensive computational models is a common challenge faced by scientists and engineers. Often Bayesian techniques are adopted to estimate a probability density function over the model parameters given noisy empirical data. The methods used to perform this type of probabilistic calibration are computationally prohibitive in that they require a large number of evaluations of the expensive model. In these cases, surrogate modeling -- that is, using a fast-to-evaluate, lower fidelity stand-in for the original computational model -- may be the only option to alleviate this computational burden. However, the upfront cost of generating training data to build a surrogate model can itself be expensive. As such, it is important to be judicious when selecting training points at which the full-fidelity model is evaluated. Here, an active learning approach is proposed that enables efficient selection of training points using approximate samples of the calibrated parameter probability density function. In this way, the training points can be concentrated in regions where the calibration algorithm requires high model accuracy.

active learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Bioburden Associated with Nonmetallic Spacecraft Materials

Planetary Protection (PP) requirements help to ensure the integrity of life-detection science conducted on solar system bodies, particularly those with liquid water. Such requirements are often met by a combination of cleaning and verification steps to reduce microbial contamination (i.e. bioburden) to an acceptable limit. There are only two cleaning methods approved by the National and Space Administration (NASA), vapor hydrogen peroxide (VHP) and heat microbial reduction (HMR), the latter of which is the most commonly employed. However, HMR can be harsh and produce its own concerns about material integrity, like aging or increasing hardness. When bioburden reduction methods cannot be employed, the project must rely on assumed NASA specification values of bioburden which can cause compliance issues with strict PP bioburden limitations. This work aimed to more accurately define the risk of contamination of a target body by providing empirical data associated with raw materials commonly used in solid rocket motors for lander missions. In this study, we pulverized nonmetallic materials using a cryogenic grinder, then analyzed the resulting substrate for microbial colony forming units (CFU). We found that many nonmetallic materials do not harbor large bioburden when compared with the NASA specification values, though a range existed depending on the material, treatment, and handling. The results from this work provide quantitative data to help reduce concerns of contamination, while also providing a foundation for follow up studies into additional sterilization methods and molecular identification of contaminating microbes.

Planetary Protection↗

NASA NTRS2024

Understanding Mercury’s Magmatic History: Geochemical Affinity, Compatibility, & Volatility Changes Due to Reduction

Mercury’s depletion in O and abundance of S substituting in as S2- has fundamental effects on the physicochemical properties of minerals and melts because O2- is the dominant rock-forming anion. These changes exert a first order effect on planetary body evolution, including the initial distribution of elements, crystallization paths, stability of phases, and mineral chemistry. Experimental and empirical data have revealed that most nominally lithophile elements become more chalcophile and/or siderophile at reducing conditions, which can be visualized through a re-interpreted Goldschmidt classification table prepared for McCubbin & Anzures’s Treatises of Geochemistry 3rd edition chapter under review. Additionally, the S bonding environment influences Mercurian phase equilibria by decreasing the stability of forsterite and anorthite while increasing the stability of enstatite, silica, and albite through re-projection of silicate ternaries.

Brendan Anthony Anzures↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pre-Flight Hazardous Gas Assessment Methodology for the Space Launch System

The complexity of the Artemis I liquid rocket propulsion systems produces many sources of hazards during the operation of the vehicle. Pre-flight hazardous gas leakages pose fire and explosion risks to rocket that could potentially lead to loss of the vehicle, mission, and crew. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) uses a probability risk assessment strategy to assess the likelihood of the hazard and the consequence should the hazardous situation occur. For high probability hazards that pose a potentially catastrophic consequence to the vehicle, the most effective strategy for reducing the risk is accomplished by engineering and implementing systems that actively mitigate the hazard. A hazards analysis is completed to determine the likelihood and severity of each hazard. These hazard analyses are informed using relevant empirical data and physics-based analytical models. Time-accurate Computational Fluid Dynamics models used to quantify and understand the risks posed to Artemis I due to expulsions of hazardous gas near the vehicle. Several sources of hazardous gas that posed a risk to Artemis I during nominal pre-flight operations are analyzed in this work. The results of the analyses were used to develop flight rationale and make risk acceptance decisions for the Artemis I launch.

Brian R. Richardson↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pre-Flight Hazardous Gas Assessment Methodology for the Space Launch System

The complexity of the Artemis I liquid rocket propulsion systems produces many sources of hazards during the operation of the vehicle. Pre-flight hazardous gas leakages pose fire and explosion risks to rocket that could potentially lead to loss of the vehicle, mission, and crew. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) uses a probability risk assessment strategy to assess the likelihood of the hazard and the consequence should the hazardous situation occur. For high probability hazards that pose a potentially catastrophic consequence to the vehicle, the most effective strategy for reducing the risk is accomplished by engineering and implementing systems that actively mitigate the hazard. A hazards analysis is completed to determine the likelihood and severity of each hazard. These hazard analyses are informed using relevant empirical data and physics-based analytical models. Time-accurate Computational Fluid Dynamics models used to quantify and understand the risks posed to Artemis I due to expulsions of hazardous gas near the vehicle. Several sources of hazardous gas that posed a risk to Artemis I during nominal pre-flight operations are analyzed in this work. The results of the analyses were used to develop flight rationale and make risk acceptance decisions for the Artemis I launch.

Brian R. Richardson↗

NASA NTRS2024

Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage

Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem’s carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.

Biodiversity↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Computational and Physics-Based Modeling for the Development of in-Space Welding Technology

Welding will be an enabling technology for in-space assembly and manufacturing (ISAM) and in-space repair operations in support of the growing Space Economy. Prospective use cases of welding include metal repair on long-duration lunar surface missions and assembly of large structures that exceed dimensions of the currently available launch vehicle envelopes such as space arrays, tall lunar transmission towers, or even large transit vehicles powered by nuclear propulsion. There is a brief history of beam welding for in-space use. Soviet and NASA astronauts performed electron beam welds (EBW) in space in the late-1960s through mid-1980s and several parabolic flights of laser beam welding (LBW) were undertaken in the USA and Canada in the early-1990s. Work has since stagnated until the recent boom of the in-space economy has demonstrated need for continued development of EBW and LBW processes, which are desirable for their compactness, low mass, low power consumption, and high wall plug efficiency. No space-based manufacturing laboratory capable of demonstrating, developing, and applying welding processes exists, and costs are high to develop and fly individual space-based trials. This drives the current approach to develop welding technology with computational and physics-based models in tandem with earth-based experiments. Several approaches are taken to complement and drive the selection of instrumentation for planned parabolic and suborbital flights. First, a thermal model of Skylab EBW experiments is established and compared to empirical data. Next, the model is used to show variation between Earth-based and in-space weld structure and properties through exploration of key variables that define the Low earth orbit and lunar surface space environments, namely temperature (40 – 400 K), pressure (10-10 to 104 Pa), and gravity (10-6 g to 1 g). Finally, physical processes associated with heat and mass transport during welding are evaluated through several case studies across the above variable ranges demonstrating need for further research.

in-space welding↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Large-Scale Simulation of a Distributed Sensing Network Supporting Regional Urban Air Mobility Operations

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is set to transform transportation in densely populated regions like the San Francisco Bay Area. This paper introduces an innovative simulation approach to explore large-scale UAM scenarios, emphasizing the use of distributed sensing to enhance operational efficiency and safety. The Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology (RVLT) model is employed as the framework for simulating complex interactions among multiple vehicles within urban landscapes. Strategically deployed ground sensor nodes enable distributed sensing, enhancing situational awareness and operational effectiveness. By integrating empirical data and geographical realism, the simulations provide a systematic analysis of the feasibility, efficiency, and safety considerations associated with UAM deployment in urban environments. Factors such as air traffic density and infrastructural requirements are thoroughly examined, offering actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders. This paper aims to refine the structure and scenarios for large-scale simulations based on distributed sensing, thereby contributing to the advancement of UAM operations.

UAM↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Large-Scale Simulation of a Distributed Sensing Network Supporting Regional Urban Air Mobility Operations

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is set to transform transportation in densely populated regions like the San Francisco Bay Area. This paper introduces an innovative simulation approach to explore large-scale UAM scenarios, emphasizing the use of distributed sensing to enhance operational efficiency and safety. The Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology (RVLT) model is employed as the framework for simulating complex interactions among multiple vehicles within urban landscapes. Strategically deployed ground sensor nodes enable distributed sensing, enhancing situational awareness and operational effectiveness. By integrating empirical data and geographical realism, the simulations provide a systematic analysis of the feasibility, efficiency, and safety considerations associated with UAM deployment in urban environments. Factors such as air traffic density and infrastructural requirements are thoroughly examined, offering actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders. This paper aims to refine the structure and scenarios for large-scale simulations based on distributed sensing, thereby contributing to the advancement of UAM operations.

Aircraft Mobility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advanced Materials for the Lunar Surface: Multiscale Computational Design of Refractory Alloys and Carbides

Emerging operational environments, such as the lunar surface, present novel challenges for NASA and drive the need for advanced materials in applications like fission surface power systems. To address these demands, computational materials science is rapidly evolving to augment or replace costly and hazardous empirical testing. Although materials selection at NASA remains predominantly experimentally driven, advanced simulation methodologies are being steadily integrated into the engineering lifecycle. This work details the application of multiscale simulation techniques—including first-principles calculations, CALPHAD, dislocation dynamics, and molecular dynamics—at NASA's Ames Research Center to evaluate advanced materials for extreme environments. First, we present contributions to the Space Nuclear Propulsion Project. Be-cause propellant channel coatings in nuclear thermal rockets must withstand high-pressure, high-temperature hydro-gen, optimizing these materials is critical. First-principles calculations were employed to establish a rigorous quantitative and qualitative understanding of the behavior of the refractory carbides ZrC, NbC, and their mixtures in high-enthalpy hydrogen environments. This necessitated the generation of high-fidelity thermodynamic models for both stoichiometric and carbon-depleted carbides, both with and without the presence of hydrogen. Furthermore, we highlight efforts under the Refractory Alloy Additive Manufacturing Build Optimization (RAAMBO) project, where existing and novel alloy compositions were assessed for additive manufacturing printability and subsequent performance in applications such as heat pipes and rocket nozzle extensions. This was accomplished through a comprehensive multiscale simulation framework that bridged the gap from the nanometer to the millimeter scale. Across both initiatives, rigorous validation against empirical data was prioritized. By systematically employing a verified and validated computational frame-work, we demonstrate how simulation effectively supports multidisciplinary engineering efforts, builds project-wide confidence, and drives critical materials development.

computational materials↗

DOE OSTI2025

EVALUATION OF HRA METHODOLOGIES FOR APPLICATION IN SDP WORK

This study critically evaluates human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies applicable to regulatory probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model, with a particular focus on their role in supporting the significance determination process (SDP) in nuclear safety assessment. Firstly, three widely utilized HRA methods – IDHEAS-ECA, SPAR-H, and ASEP/THERP – were qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. Qualitative assessments were conducted using attributes from the NEA/CSNI/R(2015)1 report, while quantitative evaluations employed regression and correlation analyses to compare predicted human error probabilities (HEPs) against empirical data. Results reveal distinct strengths, for example, IDHEAS-ECA’s robust predictive accuracy and K-HRA’s alignment with operational practices. In addition, dependency analysis and recovery analysis were critically evaluated. For dependency analysis, the methods’ handling of inter-task dependencies and their impact on HEPs were examined, while recovery analysis highlighted strategies for mitigating failure events. Furthermore, strategies were proposed to evaluate performance-shaping factors under conditions of reduced human performance, such as stress, fatigue, or cognitive overload, addressing specific challenges faced in SDP evaluations. Human errors from KINS’s operational performance information system event reports were evaluated as a case study. This study identifies gaps and provides actionable insights to ensure their validity and applicability in SDP HRA applications. This paper is a part of research conducted by KINS, and it should be noted that this result does not represent the regulatory position of KINS.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS1982

Precipitating electron energy flux and auroral zone conductances - An empirical model

Data from the low energy electron (LEE) experiments on the Atmosphere Explorer C and D satellites have been used to determine the average global distribution of the energy flux of precipitating auroral electrons and their average energy for different levels of geomagnetic activity. Measurements from the Atmosphere Explorer unified abstract file (15-s resolution) have been binned according to invariant latitude (in the range 50-90 deg), magnetic local time, and geomagnetic activity as measured by the Kp and auroral electrojet (AE) indices, separately. Bin-averaged values of precipitating energy flux and average energy have been calculated, and a smoothing algorithm used to reduce stochastic variations in the raw data. The results indicate that, for the parameters studied, the AE inces does a superior job of ordering the data with regard to geomagnetic activity. The global distribution of the auroral enhancement porition of the Pedersen and Hall conductances were inferred from the data by means of an empirical fit to detailed energy deposition calculations.

Spiro, R. W.↗