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At least 415 records · Page 23

A Bootstrap Approach to Quantifying Reliabilities and Uncertainties of Complex Systems

While much work has been done in analyzing margins and uncertainties at the component level, a gap exists in NNSA methodology relating component level reliabilities and uncertainties to system level reliability and uncertainty. This paper shows how component level reliability data can be combined via a bootstrap analysis to estimate system level reliabilities and uncertainties. The performance of the bootstrap for this problem is validated through simulation studies. This paper extends the original work of Crowder by including sensitivity analyses related to changes in samples sizes and component failure probabilities. The use of the bootstrap as a decision-making tool is thus developed by quantifying the effect of such changes on system reliability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Colossal barocaloric effects with ultralow hysteresis in two-dimensional metal–halide perovskites

Pressure-induced thermal changes in solids—barocaloric effects—can be used to drive cooling cycles that offer a promising alternative to traditional vapor-compression technologies. Efficient barocaloric cooling requires materials that undergo reversible phase transitions with large entropy changes, high sensitivity to hydrostatic pressure, and minimal hysteresis, the combination of which has been challenging to achieve in existing barocaloric materials. Here, we report a new mechanism for achieving colossal barocaloric effects that leverages the large volume and conformational entropy changes of hydrocarbon order–disorder transitions within the organic bilayers of select two-dimensional metal–halide perovskites. Significantly, we show how the confined nature of these order–disorder phase transitions and the synthetic tunability of layered perovskites can be leveraged to reduce phase transition hysteresis through careful control over the inorganic–organic interface. The combination of ultralow hysteresis and high pressure sensitivity leads to colossal reversible isothermal entropy changes (>200 J kg -1 K -1 ) at record-low pressures (<300 bar).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Climate Change Risks to Freshwater Subsistence Fisheries in Arctic Alaska: Insights and Uncertainty from Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus

Arctic freshwater ecosystems and fish populations are largely shaped by seasonal and long-term watershed hydrology. In this paper, we hypothesize how changing air temperature and precipitation will alter freeze and thaw processes, hydrology, and instream habitat to assess potential indirect effects, such as the change to the foraging and behavioral ecology, on Arctic fishes, using Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus as an indicator species. Climate change is expected to continue to alter hydrologic pathways, flow regimes, and, therefore, habitat suitability, connectivity, and availability for fishes. Warming and lengthening of the growing season will likely increase fish growth rates; however, the exceedance of threshold stream temperatures will likely increase physiological stress and alter life histories. We expect these changes to have mixed effects on Arctic subsistence fishes and fisheries. Management and conservation approaches focused on preserving the processes that create heterogeneity in aquatic habitats, genes, and communities will help maintain the resilience of Broad Whitefish and other important subsistence fisheries. Long-term effects are uncertain, so filling scientific knowledge gaps, such as identifying important habitats or increasing knowledge of abiotic variables in priority watersheds, is key to understanding and potentially mitigating likely impacts to Arctic fishes in a rapidly changing landscape.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Responses of summer mesoscale convective systems to irrigation over the North China Plain based on convection-permitting model simulations

Extensive irrigation activities in the North China Plain (NCP) significantly influence regional weather and climate. However, previous studies focusing on the NCP were primarily based on coarse-resolution models, which are unable to explicitly resolve convection systems, causing large uncertainty in precipitation simulations. In this study, a convection-permitting model coupled with a dynamic irrigation scheme is utilized to investigate the impacts of irrigation on summertime mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the NCP. Sensitivity experiments with irrigation off and on are conducted for 5 summers and an MCS identification and tracking algorithm is applied to both satellite observations and model simulations. We find that incorporating irrigation in the model increases MCS precipitation, which agrees more with observations. The probability distributions of MCS lifetime, area, propagation speed, and intensity are all better simulated with irrigation. Irrigation increases the occurrence frequency of MCSs throughout the entire day. The nighttime increase is partly because of more frequent local initiation of MCS developed from isolated deep convection, while the daytime increase is mainly attributed to the changes in MCSs initiating elsewhere and then propagating to the NCP. On average, irrigation induces additional moisture that is more thermodynamically favorable for precipitation, but this effect is partially offset by the weakened ascending air motion primarily caused by irrigation surface cooling. Compared to weak MCS precipitation events, strong MCS precipitation events experience greater enhancement in precipitation intensity when including irrigation because the offset effect from the change in large-scale ascending air motion is insignificant. In addition, irrigation makes the variation of MCS precipitation intensity more correlated with the variation in ascending motion but less correlated with that in atmospheric moisture. Our results suggest the pronounced impacts of irrigation on MCSs over the NCP which should be included in numerical models to improve regional precipitation simulation and prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluated 238 U(n,f) Average Prompt Fission Neutron Multiplicities Including the CGMF Model

This report documents an evaluation of the average prompt fission neutron multiplicity, $\overline{v}_p$, of 238 U from 800 keV to MeV. This evaluation had to be re-done from “scratch” as the input to previous $\overline{v}_p$ evaluations, specifically ENDF/B-VIII.0, was not found. That means that all available experimental data were re-analyzed and uncertainties were re-estimated. The new evaluated 238 U $\overline{v}_p$ based on only experimental data differs distinctly from ENDF/B-VIII.0 $\overline{v}_p$ from 2 to 4.5 MeV, and from 6 to 7 MeV, and is otherwise similar. The difference from 2 to 4.5 MeV stems from the fact that ENDF/B-VIII.0 was tweaked in this energy range to data of Frehaut, while two other, equally trustworthy, data sets would indicate an evaluated 238 U $\overline{v}_p$ that is up to 2% higher. Also, second chance fission in ENDF/B-VIII.0 was smoothed over from 6–7 MeV. Another major difference to ENDF/B-VIII.0 is that one of the evaluations presented here includes model information from the Hauser-Feshbach fission fragment decay code CGMF, while ENDF/B-VIII.0 is based purely on experimental data. CGMF links several fission quantities with each other; $\overline{v}_p$ is predicted by assumptions made on, e.g., pre-neutron emission yields as a function of mass, the total kinetic energy, or spin and parity of fission fragments. This allows to validate the new 238 U $\overline{v}_p$ by using CGMF parameters obtained from fitting to experimental 238 U $\overline{v}_p$ to predict yields as a function of mass, the average total kinetic energy, or the mean energy of the prompt fission neutron spectrum. These model-predicted values can then be compared to experimental and evaluated data. The model-predicted fission-observable values using evaluated parameters obtained here are reasonably close to experimental data for some observables, but are farther away from experimental data related to TKE observables. In addition to that, the evaluated 238 U(n,f) $\overline{v}_p$ shows similar deviations from ENDF/B-VIII.0 as for the evaluation with only experimental data. This difference is expected to lead to changes in simulated effective neutron multiplication factor, $k_{eff}$ of ICSBEP critical assemblies that are sensitive to 238 U in the fast range (BigTen, Flattop, Flattop-Pu). These changes in $k_{eff}$ need to be counter-balanced. Chi-Nu PFNS experimental data are expected to be released in the next few months that might lead to the needed changes in the PFNS. Until then, we hold off in benchmarking the new 238 U(n,f) $\overline{v}_p$ as well as submitting it to ENDF/B-VIII.1. Also, new high-precision 238 U $\overline{v}_p$ are expected to be measured by the CEA in the next two years that will shed further light on question on 238 U $\overline{v}_p$ from 2–4.5 and 6–7 MeV.

238U↗

Halfway to Zero: Progress towards a Carbon-Free Power Sector

Sharply reducing carbon emissions is imperative to prevent the worst effects of climate change. Yet even in the power sector—often viewed as the lynchpin to economy-wide decarbonization, and where low-carbon solutions are increasingly plentiful and cost-effective—the pace and scale of the required transformation can be daunting. A review of historical trends, however, shows the progress the power sector has already made in reducing emissions. Fifteen years ago, many business-as-usual projections anticipated that annual carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from power supply in the United States would reach 3,000 million metric tons (MMT) in 2020. In fact, direct power-sector CO 2 emissions in 2020 were 1,450 MMT—roughly 50% below the earlier projections. By this metric, in only 15 years the country’s power sector has gone halfway to zero emissions. Other metrics also evolved differently than projected: total consumer electricity costs (i.e., bills) were 18% lower; costs to human health and the climate were 92% and 52% lower, respectively; and the number of jobs in electricity generation was 29% higher. Economic, technical, and policy factors contributed to this success, including sectoral changes, energy efficiency, wind and solar, continued operations of the nuclear fleet, and coal-to-gas fuel switching. This historical record demonstrates the ability of technological and policy changes to set the power sector on a dramatically different emissions trajectory. Past success, however, does not trivialize the challenges that remain for further decarbonization in the power sector and beyond. Nor does it offer a specific roadmap for how best to achieve additional power-sector emissions reductions. Numerous challenges confront a zero-emissions pathway, and future strategies will likely differ from those of the past. Many recent studies have assessed how to make further progress in decarbonizing the power sector on the pathway to decarbonizing the economy as a whole. We summarize the core results of those studies, but the primary goal of this report is to highlight the progress that has already been made in reducing power-sector emissions. As the country maps out a plan for further decarbonization, experience from the past 15 years offers two central lessons. First, policy and technology advancement are imperative to achieving significant emissions reductions. Second, our ability to predict the future is limited, and so it will be crucial to adapt as we gain policy experience and as technologies advance in unexpected ways.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of a Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake on Water Levels and Wetlands of the Lower Columbia River and Estuary

Abstract Subsidence after a subduction zone earthquake can cause major changes in estuarine bathymetry. Here, we quantify the impacts of earthquake‐induced subsidence on hydrodynamics and habitat distributions in a major system, the lower Columbia River Estuary, using a hydrodynamic and habitat model. Model results indicate that coseismic subsidence increases tidal range, with the smallest changes at the coast and a maximum increase of ∼10% in a region of topographic convergence. All modeled scenarios reduce intertidal habitat by 24%–25% and shifts ∼93% of estuarine wetlands to lower‐elevation habitat bands. Incorporating dynamic effects of tidal change from subsidence yields higher estimates of remaining habitat by multiples of 0–3.7, dependent on the habitat type. The persistent tidal change and chronic habitat disturbance after an earthquake poses strong challenges for estuarine management and wetland restoration planning, particularly when coupled with future sea‐level rise effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measuring Climate and Water Risk across the Bulk Power System

As climate impacts increase and power systems transition to renewables, planners and operators need insights into climate risks to power generation and infrastructure to ensure reliable decision-making in the short and long-term. We present a standardized, consistent mechanism for utilities and system operators to evaluate the climate- and water-related risks of their current and future grid assets. Using a risk-based approach on the combined outcomes of high-fidelity climate drivers together with water and power system models, we examine the temperature and water availability impacts within the contiguous United States to power system assets at the water basin level in three different time periods and report resulting outcomes on lost capacity across different expansion scenarios and climate models. The results indicate that air temperature has the highest effect on derating. Changes in streamflow do not have a large impact on generation capacity at the national level. Electric sector buildout scenarios each have a unique regional risk profile, depending on the technology mix and total capacity, although risks from high temperatures are significant for both traditional and renewable energy generation. Stakeholders can use this approach to monitor effects of generation capacity losses and potential impacts as climate, generation mix, and infrastructure change.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Shortwave Radiative Flux Response to an Injection of Sea Salt Aerosols in the Gulf of Mexico

We report marine cloud brightening (MCB) has been proposed as a potential means of geoengineering the climate, temporarily providing cooling to offset some of the effects of climate change. Marine sky brightening (MSB), involving the direct scattering of sunlight from sea salt injection into the marine boundary layer, has been proposed as an additional geoengineering method that could work in areas that are not regularly cloudy. Here, we use a regional atmospheric model to simulate MCB and MSB over the Gulf of Mexico and nearby land, a highly populated and economically important region that is not characterized by persistent marine stratocumulus cloud cover. Injection of sea salt in the Aitken mode from a region in the central Gulf of Mexico equivalent to 10.8 Tg yr -1 produces an upwards 8.4 W m -2 radiative flux change across the region at the top of the atmosphere, largely due to cloud property changes. Comparatively, a similar mass injection in the accumulation mode produces a 3.1 W m -2 radiative flux change driven primarily by direct scattering. Injection of even larger particles produces a much smaller radiative flux change. Shortwave flux changes due to clouds are largely driven by an increase in cloud droplet number concentration and an increase in cloud liquid water path (each contributing about 45% to the flux change), with a much lower contribution from cloud fraction changes (10%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Morphological landscapes from high content imaging reveal cytokine priming strategies that enhance mesenchymal stromal cell immunosuppression

Abstract Successful clinical translation of mesenchymal stromal cell (MSC) products has not been achieved in the United States and may be in large part due to MSC functional heterogeneity. Efforts have been made to identify “priming” conditions that produce MSCs with consistent immunomodulatory function; however, challenges remain with predicting and understanding how priming impacts MSC behavior. The purpose of this study was to develop a high throughput, image‐based approach to assess MSC morphology in response to combinatorial priming treatments and establish morphological profiling as an effective approach to screen the effect of manufacturing changes (i.e., priming) on MSC immunomodulation. We characterized the morphological response of multiple MSC lines/passages to an array of Interferon‐gamma (IFN‐γ) and tumor necrosis factor‐⍺ (TNF‐⍺) priming conditions, as well as the effects of priming on MSC modulation of activated T cells and MSC secretome. Although considerable functional heterogeneity, in terms of T‐cell suppression, was observed between different MSC lines and at different passages, this heterogeneity was significantly reduced with combined IFN‐γ/TNF‐⍺ priming. The magnitude of this change correlated strongly with multiple morphological features and was also reflected by MSC secretion of immunomodulatory factors, for example, PGE2, ICAM‐1, and CXCL16. Overall, this study further demonstrates the ability of priming to enhance MSC function, as well as the ability of morphology to better understand MSC heterogeneity and predict changes in function due to manufacturing.

Andrews, Seth H.↗

Relative effect of anthropogenic warming and natural climate variability to changes in Compound drought and heatwaves

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events can be influenced by large scale teleconnections and anthropogenic warming, leading to severe socio-economic impacts across various climate regions. Here, the relative influence of six different teleconnection patterns and anthropogenic global warming on the global CDHW occurrences is quantified systematically using the instrumental data period, 1982–2016. The results from the study suggest a substantial increase in the CDHW events (1–5 events per year) across various parts of the globe at the beginning of 21st century (2000–2016). A Bayesian approach is implemented to identify the most vulnerable climate regions based on the degree of susceptibility of heatwaves (DSHW) towards drought. As such, top ten most vulnerable regions are selected based on the DSHW magnitude, and a partial correlation analysis is performed to select the natural and anthropogenic drivers of CDHW in those regions, separately. A logistic regression model is then used to determine significant changes in the odds of CDHW due to changes in the selected drivers that suggest a significantly positive, and multiplicative effect of anthropogenic global warming in the top ten most vulnerable climate regions. Finally, the same logistic regression model, integrated with an analytical framework, is applied to determine the relative influence of anthropogenic global warming on the changes in odds of CDHW for the future, 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits. Finally, the results suggest that relative to the 2 °C global warming, constraining to the 1.5 °C global warming limit may conduce about 17-fold reduction in the odds of CDHW in the most vulnerable climate region, East Asia, 5–8-fold reduction in Western North America, Northern Australia, Central North America, Central Europe, South Asia, and the Mediterranean region, and 3–4-fold reduction in Northeastern Brazil, Eastern North America, and West Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How will future climate change impact prescribed fire across the contiguous United States?

As of 2023, the use of prescribed fire to manage ecosystems accounts for more than 50% of area burned annually across the United States. Prescribed fire is carried out when meteorological conditions, including temperature, humidity, and wind speed are appropriate for its safe and effective application. However, changes in these meteorological variables associated with future climate change may impact future opportunities to conduct prescribed fire. In this study, we combine climate projections with information on prescribed burning windows for ecoregions across the contiguous United States (CONUS) to compute the number of days when meteorological conditions allow for the safe and effective application of prescribed fire under present-day (2006–2015) and future climate (2051–2060) conditions. The resulting projections, which cover 57% of all vegetated area across the CONUS, indicate fewer days with conditions suitable for prescribed burning across ecoregions of the eastern United States due to rising maximum daily temperatures, but opportunities increase in the northern and northwestern United States, driven primarily by rising minimum temperatures and declining wind speeds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Irreparable Interphase Chemistry Degradation Induced by Temperature Pulse in Lithium–Ion Batteries

While it is widely recognized that the operating temperature significantly affects the energy density and cycle life of lithium-ion batteries, the consequence of electrode-electrolyte interphase chemistry to sudden environmental temperature changes remains inadequately understood. Here, we systematically investigate the effects of a temperature pulse (T pulse) on the electrochemical performance of LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 (NMC811) pouch full cells. By utilizing advanced characterization tools, such as time-of-flight secondary-ion mass spectrometry, we reveal that the T pulse can lead to an irreversible degradation of cathode-electrolyte interphase chemistry and architecture. Despite negligible immediate impacts on the solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) on graphite anode, aggregated cathode-to-anode chemical crossover gradually degrades the SEI by catalyzing electrolyte reduction decomposition and inducing metallic dead Li formation because of insufficient cathode passivation after the T pulse. Consequently, pouch cells subjected to the T pulse show an inferior cycle stability to those free of the T pulse. Furthermore, this work unveils the effects of sudden temperature changes on the interphase chemistry and cell performance, emphasizing the importance of a proper temperature management in assessing performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Review of Resilience and Long-Term Planning in Power and Water Systems in the United States

There is recognition among power and water utilities that the frequency and magnitude of high consequence and low probability events could increase as a result of climate change. The interconnected nature of energy-water systems raises the possibility of cascading failures, increasing complexity and risks. Resilience and long-term planning are important ways of weathering the effects of climate change. First, to understand more about resilience, we reviewed existing literature on resilience definitions, metrics, and modeling, focusing on integrated water-power systems. Second, to understand how resilience and planning are being applied in practice, we interviewed utilities and organized, curated, and synthesized the interview data to arrive at several key findings, which are presented here. We found that there is not a consistent definition for resilience, yet it is something that utilities regularly plan for, often with different names and varying methods/measures. However, there is a tangible shift in the industry towards defining and determining measurable resilience metrics. While the exact metrics are a work in progress, utilities are taking steps forward by (1) putting people and culture at the center of resilience, (2) recognizing their own interdependencies, and (3) pursuing better cross-sector collaboration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impact of structural distortions on the correlated electronic structure of orbital-selective Mott insulating Na 3 ⁢Co 2 ⁢SbO 6 under strain

Na 3 Co 2 SbO 6 is a promising candidate to realize the Kitaev spin liquid phase since the large Kitaev spin exchange interaction is tunable via the change in electronic structure, such as the trigonal crystal field splitting (Δ TCF ). Here, in this study, we show that the uncorrelated electronic structure of Na 3 Co 2 SbO 6 is rather insensitive to the strain effect due to the low crystal symmetry accompanied by oxygen displacements and the presence of Sb s orbitals. Using density functional theory plus dynamical mean field theory, we find that the correlated electronic structure of Na 3 Co 2 SbO 6 is an orbital-selective Mott insulating state where the trigonal a 1g orbital is insulating due to the nearly full occupation, while other d orbitals behave as typical Mott insulators, resulting in the effective tunability of Δ TCF under the strain effect. The sign change of Δ TCF can occur as the in-plane tensile strain is applied, and the Kitaev spin liquid phase could possibly be realized due to the strongly suppressed Δ TCF under tensile strain. Our results show that the local Co-site symmetry and dynamical correlation effects will play an important role in engineering the novel magnetic phase in this and related materials.

Nguyen, Nam [Univ. of Illinois, Chicago, IL (Unite↗

Detection and attribution of long-term and fine-scale changes in spring phenology over urban areas: A case study in New York State

Spring phenology plays an essential role in climate change, terrestrial ecosystem, and public health. Field-based monitoring and understanding of changes in spring phenology for long periods and in large regions are challenging due to the limited in-site observations. Space-based remotely sensed observations offer great potentials for monitoring decadal spring phenology changes from regional to global scales. However, the coarse-scale remotely sensed observations are insufficient to capture fine-scale spring phenology dynamics, especially in urban areas, and this makes it challenging for understanding the combined effects of climate change and urbanization on spring phenology. We derived the start of phenology season (SOS) in New York State using 30 m Landsat observations from 1990 to 2015 to understand the impact of the environment and urbanization on SOS. The results show that SOS for different years reveals heterogeneous spatial distribution. Most regions of New York State have been experiencing significant spring phenology changes in form of earlier onset of vegetation greening, ranging from 0.2 to 0.6 day/year during 1990 to 2015, and this trend varies slightly with latitudes and urbanization levels. Further, spatial correlation analysis shows that the increase in temperature and urbanization could both promote the advancement of SOS. However, the effect of urbanization (partial correlation coefficient (R) ranges from −0.289 to −0.542) on SOS is greater than the effect of temperature (R ranges from 0.006 to −0.192). The study generates a high spatio-temporal resolution spring phenology dataset for ecological, environmental and public health studies, especially in urban areas, and reveals the importance of better accounting for the urbanization effects when quantifying the SOS dynamics in phenology models.

Landsat↗

Sign-tunable anomalous Hall effect induced by two-dimensional symmetry-protected nodal structures in ferromagnetic perovskite thin films

Magnetism and spin-orbit coupling are two quintessential ingredients underlying topological transport phenomena in itinerant ferromagnets. When spin-polarized bands support nodal points/lines with band degeneracy that can be lifted by spin-orbit coupling, the nodal structures become a source of Berry curvature, leading to a large anomalous Hall effect. However, two-dimensional systems can possess stable nodal structures only when proper crystalline symmetry exists. Here, in this study, we show that two-dimensional spin-polarized band structures of perovskite oxides generally support symmetry-protected nodal lines and points that govern both the sign and the magnitude of the anomalous Hall effect. To demonstrate this, we performed angle-resolved photoemission studies of ultrathin films of SrRuO 3 , a representative metallic ferromagnet with spin-orbit coupling. We show that the sign-changing anomalous Hall effect upon variation in the film thickness, magnetization and chemical potential can be well explained by theoretical models. Our work may facilitate new switchable devices based on ferromagnetic ultrathin films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Foliar Application of Nettle and Japanese Knotweed Extracts on Vitis vinifera: Consequences for Plant Physiology, Biochemical Parameters, and Yield

Climate change is expected to affect grapevine physiology, berry quality, and yield in the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR). In this study, nettle (NE) and Japanese knotweed (JKE) extracts were tested to verify their biostimulant effect on the physiological and biochemical parameters of grapevine leaves and in vine yields. In fact, some parameters were improved after foliar application of the plant extracts, namely the photosynthetic activity and consequently, the levels of photosynthetic pigments (Clb), starch, and total soluble sugars. We also observed a reduction in lipid peroxidation, which could play a crucial role in protecting cell membranes from oxidative damage induced by the climatic conditions prevalent in this region. Therefore, we confirmed that the foliar application of plant extracts, along with the enhancement of secondary metabolites and the upregulation of plant defense genes, as previously reported, resulted in the enhancement of grapevine physiology, while also increasing the yield at harvest. In the future, these plant extracts could serve as a vital tool for winegrowers in mitigating the effects of expected changes in climatic conditions.

Monteiro, Eliana (ORCID:0000000231675540)↗