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DOE OSTI2022

Multimodal parameter spaces of a complex multi-channel neuron model

One of the most common types of models that helps us to understand neuron behavior is based on the Hodgkin–Huxley ion channel formulation (HH model). A major challenge with inferring parameters in HH models is non-uniqueness: many different sets of ion channel parameter values produce similar outputs for the same input stimulus. Such phenomena result in an objective function that exhibits multiple modes (i.e., multiple local minima). This non-uniqueness of local optimality poses challenges for parameter estimation with many algorithmic optimization techniques. HH models additionally have severe non-linearities resulting in further challenges for inferring parameters in an algorithmic fashion. To address these challenges with a tractable method in high-dimensional parameter spaces, we propose using a particular Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, which has the advantage of inferring parameters in a Bayesian framework. The Bayesian approach is designed to be suitable for multimodal solutions to inverse problems. We introduce and demonstrate the method using a three-channel HH model. We then focus on the inference of nine parameters in an eight-channel HH model, which we analyze in detail. We explore how the MCMC algorithm can uncover complex relationships between inferred parameters using five injected current levels. The MCMC method provides as a result a nine-dimensional posterior distribution, which we analyze visually with solution maps or landscapes of the possible parameter sets. The visualized solution maps show new complex structures of the multimodal posteriors, and they allow for selection of locally and globally optimal value sets, and they visually expose parameter sensitivities and regions of higher model robustness. We envision these solution maps as enabling experimentalists to improve the design of future experiments, increase scientific productivity and improve on model structure and ideation when the MCMC algorithm is applied to experimental data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Axisymmetric Radiative Transfer Models of Kilonovae

The detailed observations of GW170817 proved for the first time directly that neutron star mergers are a major production site of heavy elements. The observations could be fit by a number of simulations that qualitatively agree, but can quantitatively differ (e.g., in total r-process mass) by an order of magnitude. We categorize kilonova ejecta into several typical morphologies motivated by numerical simulations, and apply a radiative transfer Monte Carlo code to study how the geometric distribution of the ejecta shapes the emitted radiation. We find major impacts on both spectra and light curves. The peak bolometric luminosity can vary by two orders of magnitude and the timing of its peak by a factor of five. These findings provide the crucial implication that the ejecta masses inferred from observations around the peak brightness are uncertain by at least an order of magnitude. Mixed two-component models with lanthanide-rich ejecta are particularly sensitive to geometric distribution. A subset of mixed models shows very strong viewing angle dependence due to lanthanide "curtaining," which persists even if the relative mass of lanthanide-rich component is small. The angular dependence is weak in the rest of our models, but different geometric combinations of the two components lead to a highly diverse set of light curves. We identify geometry-dependent P Cygni features in late spectra that directly map out strong lines in the simulated opacity of neodymium, which can help to constrain the ejecta geometry and to directly probe the r-process abundances.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tracking the ancestry of known and ‘ghost’ homeologous subgenomes in model grass Brachypodium polyploids

Unraveling the evolution of plant polyploids is a challenge when their diploid progenitor species are extinct or unknown or when genome sequences of known progenitors are unavailable. Existing subgenome identification methods cannot adequately infer the homeologous genomes that are present in the allopolyploids if they do not take into account the potential existence of unknown progenitors. We addressed this challenge in the widely distributed dysploid grass genus Brachypodium, which is a model genus for temperate cereals and biofuel grasses. We used a transcriptome-based phylogeny and newly designed subgenome detection algorithms coupled with a comparative chromosome barcoding analysis. Our phylogenomic subgenome detection pipeline was validated in Triticum allopolyploids, which have known progenitor genomes, and then used to infer the identities of three subgenomes derived from extant diploid species and four subgenomes derived from unknown diploid progenitors (ghost subgenomes) in six Brachypodium polyploids (B. mexicanum, B. boissieri, B. retusum, B. phoenicoides, B. rupestre and B. hybridum), of which five contain undescribed homeologous subgenomes. The existence of the seven Brachypodium progenitor genomes in the polyploids was confirmed by their karyotypic barcode profiles. Comparative phylogenomics of nuclear versus plastid trees allowed us to formulate hypothetical homoploid hybridizations and allo- and autopolyploidization scenarios that could have generated the six Brachypodium polyploids.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian operator inference for data-driven reduced-order modeling

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian inverse problem with Gaussian prior and likelihood. The resulting posterior distribution characterizes the operators defining the reduced-order model, hence the predictions subsequently issued by the reduced-order model are endowed with uncertainty. The statistical moments of these predictions are estimated via a Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. Since the reduced models are fast to solve, this sampling is computationally efficient. Furthermore, the proposed Bayesian framework provides a statistical interpretation of the regularization term that is present in the deterministic operator inference problem, and the empirical Bayes approach of maximum marginal likelihood suggests a selection algorithm for the regularization hyperparameters. The proposed method is demonstrated on two examples: the compressible Euler equations with noise-corrupted observations, and a single-injector combustion process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Privacy-Preserving Distributed Control of Optimal Power Flow

Here, we consider a distributed optimal power flow formulated as an optimization problem that maximizes a nondifferentiable concave function. Solving such a problem by the existing distributed algorithms can lead to data privacy issues because the solution information exchanged within the algorithms can be utilized by an adversary to infer the data. To preserve data privacy, in this paper we propose a differentially private projected subgradient (DP-PS) algorithm that includes a solution encryption step. We show that a sequence generated by DP-PS converges in expectation, in probability, and with probability 1. Moreover, we show that the rate of convergence in expectation is affected by a target privacy level of DP-PS chosen by the user. We conduct numerical experiments that demonstrate the convergence and data privacy preservation of DP-PS.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Physics Informed Spatio-Temporal Network for Streamflow Data Imputation

Reliable reconstruction of incomplete streamflow records is critical for improving hydrological forecasting, flood preparedness, and water resource management. However, large observational gaps and uncertainties in governing physical parameters limit the accuracy of traditional statistical and machinelearning imputation frameworks. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal Network (BPI-STNet) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while enforcing hydrologic consistency through embedded physical constraints. The framework integrates a GraphSAGE-LSTM architecture to model spatial connectivity across gauges and temporal flow dynamics, coupled with a Bayesian update mechanism to estimate uncertain parameters in a simplified water-balance framework. Unlike conventional physics-informed networks that rely on sampling-based posterior estimation, BPI-STNet derives an analytic solution to the inverse problem, allowing closed-form Bayesian updates of uncertain parameters Λ={α,β,k} using Gaussian priors and likelihoods. Applied to daily observations from the Susquehanna River Basin (1980-2022), BPI-STNet achieves substantial improvements over a purely data-driven RGNN baseline, which reduced RMSE by 23 % and MAE by 9 %, and achieving an average NSE values up to 0.96. The results demonstrate that coupling Bayesian inference with physics-informed learning yields physically consistent, uncertainty-aware reconstructions that preserve the temporal persistence and statistical distribution of observed flows. The proposed framework establishes a generalizable paradigm for data-sparse hydrologic systems where both data fidelity and physical interpretability are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗

DOE OSTI2021

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. Furthermore, the combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Phylogenetic diversity, trichothecene potential, and pathogenicity within Fusarium sambucinum species complex

The Fusarium sambucinum species complex (FSAMSC) is one of the most taxonomically challenging groups of fusaria, comprising prominent mycotoxigenic plant pathogens and other species with various lifestyles. Among toxins produced by members of the FSAMSC, trichothecenes pose the most significant threat to public health. Herein a global collection of 171 strains, originating from diverse hosts or substrates, were selected to represent FSAMSC diversity. This strain collection was used to assess their species diversity, evaluate their potential to produce trichothecenes, and cause disease on wheat. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses of a combined 3-gene dataset used to infer evolutionary relationships revealed that the 171 strains originally received as 48 species represent 74 genealogically exclusive phylogenetically distinct species distributed among six strongly supported clades: Brachygibbosum, Graminearum, Longipes, Novel, Sambucinum, and Sporotrichioides. Most of the strains produced trichothecenes in vitro but varied in type, indicating that the six clades correspond to type A, type B, or both types of trichothecene-producing lineages. Furthermore, five strains representing two putative novel species within the Sambucinum Clade produced two newly discovered type A trichothecenes, 15-keto NX-2 and 15-keto NX-3. Strains of the two putatively novel species together with members of the Graminearum Clade were aggressive toward wheat when tested for pathogenicity on heads of the susceptible cultivar Apogee. In planta, the Graminearum Clade strains produced nivalenol or deoxynivalenol and the aggressive Sambucinum Clade strains synthesized NX-3 and 15-keto NX-3. Other strains within the Brachygibbosum, Longipes, Novel, Sambucinum, and Sporotrichioides Clades were nonpathogenic or could infect the inoculated floret without spreading within the head. Moreover, most of these strains did not produce any toxin in the inoculated spikelets. These data highlight aggressiveness toward wheat appears to be influenced by the type of toxin produced and that it is not limited to members of the Graminearum Clade.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Real-Time Edge AI for Distributed Systems (READS): Progress on Beam Loss De-Blending for the Fermilab Main Injector and Recycler

The Fermilab Main Injector enclosure houses two accelerators, the Main Injector and Recycler. During normal operation, high intensity proton beams exist simultaneously in both. The two accelerators share the same beam loss monitors (BLM) and monitoring system. Beam losses in the Main Injector enclosure are monitored for tuning the accelerators and machine protection. Losses are currently attributed to a specific machine based on timing. However, this method alone is insufficient and often inaccurate, resulting in more difficult machine tuning and unnecessary machine downtime. Machine experts can often distinguish the correct source of beam loss. This suggests a machine learning (ML) model may be producible to help de-blend losses between machines. Work is underway as part of the Fermilab Real-time Edge AI for Distributed Systems Project (READS) to develop a ML empowered system that collects streamed BLM data and additional machine readings to infer in real-time, which machine generated beam loss.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Insight into Strong QCD and the Emergence of Mass from N* Experiments

Studies of nucleon resonance (N*) electroexcitation amplitudes (?vpN* electrocouplings) within a broad range of virtual photon four-momentum squared Q2 offer unique information on many facets of the strong interaction in the regime of large QCD running coupling (sQCD regime) seen in the generation of different resonances. The results on the ?vpN* electrocouplings from exclusive meson electroproduction data measured with the CLAS detector at JLab and their impact on understanding of sQCD dynamics will be presented in this talk. These CLAS data have provided the first and only available results on the evolution of the ?vpN* electrocouplings with Q2 to 5 GeV2 for most N* states in the mass range up to 1.8 GeV. A successful description of the CLAS results on the Q2-evolution of the ?(1232)3/2+, N(1440)1/2+, and ?(1600)3/2+ electrocouplings has been achieved within the continuum Schwinger method (CSM) by employing the same momentum dependence of the dressed quark mass inferred from the QCD Lagrangian, which also reproduces the experimental results on the pion elastic electromagnetic form factor and parton distribution function, and the nucleon elastic form factor. This success has demonstrated the capability for gaining insight into the emergence of hadron mass (EHM) from the exploration of the Q2-evolution of the ?vpN* electrocouplings. These studies also allow us to establish either universality or environmental sensitivity of the dressed quark mass function and to explore qq-correlation amplitudes of different spin-parities and the mixing between configurations of different orbital angular momentum. Exploration of the resonance electroexcitation with the CLAS12 detector and in the future with a possible 22 GeV machine at JLab offer the only foreseen opportunity to extend information on the ?vpN* electrocouplings for Q2 from 5-30 GeV2. Analyses of these results will cover the full range of distances where the dominant part of hadron mass and N* structure emerge from QCD.

Mokeev, Victor↗

DOE OSTI2020

Progress on the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB): A new DNI computation

This study introduces a new technique to compute direct normal irradiance (DNI) for improving the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB). A finite-surface integration algorithm is developed to compute solar radiation in differential solid angles and efficiently infer its contribution to a surface perpendicular to the solar direction. A lookup table of cloud bi-directional transmittance distribution function (BTDF) is developed by use of the discrete ordinates radiative transfer (DISORT) model for possible solar and observing directions and various cloud optical and microphysical properties. In each solar incident direction, DNI is given by the cloud BTDFs from approximately 200 differential solid angles. The simulated DNI is calibrated and evaluated using surface observations at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Solar Energy Research Laboratory (SRRL) and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) facility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Coupled Influence of Thermal Physiology and Biotic Interactions on the Distribution and Density of Ant Species along an Elevational Gradient

A fundamental tenet of biogeography is that abiotic and biotic factors interact to shape the distributions of species and the organization of communities, with interactions being more important in benign environments, and environmental filtering more important in stressful environments. This pattern is often inferred using large databases or phylogenetic signal, but physiological mechanisms underlying such patterns are rarely examined. We focused on 18 ant species at 29 sites along an extensive elevational gradient, coupling experimental data on critical thermal limits, null model analyses, and observational data of density and abundance to elucidate factors governing species’ elevational range limits. Thermal tolerance data showed that environmental conditions were likely to be more important in colder, more stressful environments, where physiology was the most important constraint on the distribution and density of ant species. Conversely, the evidence for species interactions was strongest in warmer, more benign conditions, as indicated by our observational data and null model analyses. Our results provide a strong test that biotic interactions drive the distributions and density of species in warm climates, but that environmental filtering predominates at colder, high-elevation sites. Such a pattern suggests that the responses of species to climate change are likely to be context-dependent and more specifically, geographically-dependent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Surface Analysis Insight Note: Observations relating to photoemission peak shapes, oxidation state, and chemistry of titanium oxide films

It is common practice to describe the coordination of metal atoms in a binding configuration with their nearest neighbors in terms of oxidation state, a measure by which the number of electrons redistributed between atoms forming chemical bonds. In XPS terms, change to an oxidation state is commonly inferred by correlating photoemission signal with binding energy. The assumption, when classifying photoemission signals into distinct spectral shapes, is that a distribution of intensities shifted to lower binding energy is evidence of a reduction in oxidation state. In this Insight note, we raise the prospect that changes in photoemission peak shape may occur without obvious changes, determined by XPS in stoichiometry for a material. It is well known that TiO 2 measured by XPS yields reproducible Ti 2p photoemission peaks. However, on exposing TiO 2 to ion beams, Ti 2p photoemission evolves to complex distributions in intensity, which are particularly difficult to analyze by traditional fitting of bell-shaped curves to these data. For these reasons, in this Insight note, a thin film of TiO 2 deposited on a silicon substrate is chosen for analysis by XPS and linear algebraic techniques. Alterations in spectral shapes created from modified TiO 2 , which might be interpreted as the change in oxidation state, are assessed in terms of relative proportions of titanium to oxygen. It is found through detailed analysis of spectra that quantification by XPS, using procedures routinely used in practice, is not in accord with the typical interpretations of photoemission shapes. The data processing methods used and results presented in this work are of particular relevance to elucidating fundamental phenomena governing the surface evolution of materials-enabled energy processes where cyclic/non-steady usage changes the nature of bonding, especially in the presence of contaminants.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

GrainGNN: A dynamic graph neural network for predicting 3D grain microstructure

We propose GrainGNN, a surrogate model for the evolution of polycrystalline grain structure under rapid solidification conditions in metal additive manufacturing. High fidelity simulations of solidification microstructures are typically performed using multicomponent partial differential equations (PDEs) with moving interfaces. The inherent randomness of the PDE initial conditions (grain seeds) necessitates ensemble simulations to predict microstructure statistics, e.g., grain size, aspect ratio, and crystallographic orientation. Here, currently such ensemble simulations are prohibitively expensive and surrogates are necessary.In GrainGNN, we use a dynamic graph to represent interface motion and topological changes due to grain coarsening. We use a reduced representation of the microstructure using hand-crafted features; we combine pattern finding and altering graph algorithms with two neural networks, a classifier (for topological changes) and a regressor (for interface motion). Both networks have an encoder-decoder architecture; the encoder has a multi-layer transformer long-short-term-memory architecture; the decoder is a single layer perceptron.We evaluate GrainGNN by comparing it to high-fidelity phase field simulations for in-distribution and out-of-distribution grain configurations for solidification under laser power bed fusion conditions. GrainGNN results in 80%–90% pointwise accuracy; and nearly identical distributions of scalar quantities of interest (QoI) between phase field and GrainGNN simulations compared using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. GrainGNN's inference speedup (PyTorch on single x86 CPU) over a high-fidelity phase field simulation (CUDA on a single NVIDIA A100 GPU) is 150×–2000× for 100-initial grain problem. Further, using GrainGNN, we model the formation of 11,600 grains in 220 seconds on a single CPU core.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty quantification for Multiphase-CFD simulations of bubbly flows: a machine learning-based Bayesian approach supported by high-resolution experiments

In this paper, we developed a machine learning-based Bayesian approach to inversely quantify and reduce the uncertainties of multiphase computational fluid dynamics (MCFD) simulations for bubbly flows. The proposed approach is supported by high-resolution two-phase flow measurements, including those by double-sensor conductivity probes, high-speed imaging, and particle image velocimetry. Local distributions of key physical quantities of interest (QoIs), including the void fraction and phasic velocities, are obtained to support the Bayesian inference. In the process, the epistemic uncertainties of the closure relations are inversely quantified while the aleatory uncertainties from stochastic fluctuations of the system are evaluated based on experimental uncertainty analysis. The combined uncertainties are then propagated through the MCFD solver to obtain uncertainties of the QoIs, based on which probability-boxes are constructed for validation. The proposed approach relies on three machine learning methods: feedforward neural networks and principal component analysis for surrogate modeling, and Gaussian processes for model form uncertainty modeling. The whole process is implemented within the framework of an open-source deep learning library PyTorch with graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration, thus ensuring the efficiency of the computation. The results demonstrate that with the support of high-resolution data, the uncertainties of MCFD simulations can be significantly reduced. The proposed approach has the potential for other applications that involve numerical models with empirical parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Map-level baryonification: unified treatment of weak lensing two-point and higher-order statistics

Precision cosmology benefits from extracting maximal information from cosmic structures, motivating the use of higher-order statistics (HOS) at small spatial scales. However, predicting how baryonic processes modify matter statistics at these scales has been challenging. The baryonic correction model (BCM) addresses this by modifying dark-matter-only simulations to mimic baryonic effects, providing a flexible, simulation-based framework for predicting both two-point and HOS. We show that a 3-parameter version of the BCM can jointly fit weak lensing maps' two-point statistics, wavelet phase harmonics coefficients, scattering coefficients, and the third and fourth moments to within 2% accuracy across all scales ℓ < 2000 and tomographic bins for a DES-Y3-like redshift distribution ( z ≲ 2), using the FLAMINGO simulations. These results demonstrate the viability of BCM-assisted, simulation-based weak lensing inference of two-point and HOS, paving the way for robust cosmological constraints that fully exploit non-Gaussian information on small spatial scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗