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DOE OSTI2026

Neural posterior unfolding

Differential cross section measurements are the currency of scientific exchange in particle and nuclear physics. A key challenge for these analyses is the correction for detector distortions, known as deconvolution or unfolding. Binned unfolding of cross section measurements traditionally rely on the regularized inversion of the response matrix that represents the detector response, mapping pre-detector (`particle level') observables to post-detector (`detector level') observables. In this paper we introduce Neural Posterior Unfolding, a modern, Bayesian approach that leverages normalizing flows for unfolding. By using normalizing flows for neural posterior estimation, NPU offers several key advantages including implicit regularization through the neural network architecture, fast amortized inference that eliminates the need for repeated retraining, and direct access to the full uncertainty in the unfolded result. In addition to introducing NPU, we implement a classical Bayesian unfolding method called Fully Bayesian Unfolding (FBU) in modern Python so it can also be studied. These tools are validated on simple Gaussian examples and then tested on simulated jet substructure examples from the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). We find that the Bayesian methods are effective and worth additional development to be analysis ready for cross section measurements at the LHC and beyond.

Analysis and statistical methods↗

DOE OSTI2021

Anomaly detection in the Zwicky Transient Facility DR3

We present results from applying the SNAD anomaly detection pipeline to the third public data release of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF DR3). The pipeline is composed of three stages: feature extraction, search of outliers with machine learning algorithms, and anomaly identification with followup by human experts. Our analysis concentrates in three ZTF fields, comprising more than 2.25 million objects. A set of four automatic learning algorithms was used to identify 277 outliers, which were subsequently scrutinized by an expert. From these, 188 (68 per cent) were found to be bogus light curves – including effects from the image subtraction pipeline as well as overlapping between a star and a known asteroid, 66 (24 per cent) were previously reported sources whereas 23 (8 per cent) correspond to non-catalogued objects, with the two latter cases of potential scientific interest (e.g. one spectroscopically confirmed RS Canum Venaticorum star, four supernovae candidates, one red dwarf flare). Moreover, using results from the expert analysis, we were able to identify a simple bi-dimensional relation that can be used to aid filtering potentially bogus light curves in future studies. We provide a complete list of objects with potential scientific application so they can be further scrutinised by the community. These results confirm the importance of combining automatic machine learning algorithms with domain knowledge in the construction of recommendation systems for astronomy. Our code is publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimal 1D Ly α forest power spectrum estimation – II. KODIAQ, SQUAD, and XQ-100

ABSTRACT We measure the 1D Ly α power spectrum P1D from Keck Observatory Database of Ionized Absorption toward Quasars (KODIAQ), The Spectral Quasar Absorption Database (SQUAD), and XQ-100 quasars using the optimal quadratic estimator. We combine KODIAQ and SQUAD at the spectrum level, but perform a separate XQ-100 estimation to control its large resolution corrections in check. Our final analysis measures P1D at scales k < 0.1 s km−1 between redshifts $z$ = 2.0–4.6 using 538 quasars. This sample provides the largest number of high-resolution, high-S/N observations; and combined with the power of optimal estimator it provides exceptional precision at small scales. These small-scale modes (k ≳ 0.02 s km−1), unavailable in Sloan Digital Sky Survey and Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument analyses, are sensitive to the thermal state and reionization history of the intergalactic medium, as well as the nature of dark matter. As an example, a simple Fisher forecast analysis estimates that our results can improve small-scale cut-off sensitivity by more than a factor of 2.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fraction of broad absorption line quasars in different radio morphologies

ABSTRACT In this study, we investigated the orientation model of Broad Absorption Line (BAL) quasars using a sample of sources that are common in Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release (DR)-16 quasar catalogue and Very Large Array (VLA)-Faint Images of the Radio Sky at Twenty Centimeters (FIRST) survey. Using the radio cut-out images from the FIRST survey, we first designed a deep-learning model using convolutional neural networks (CNN) to classify the quasar radio morphologies into the core-only, young jet, single lobe, or triples. These radio morphologies are further sub-classified into core-dominated and lobe-dominated sources. The CNN models can classify the sources with a high precision of >98 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ for all the morphological sub-classes. The average BAL fraction in the resolved core, core-dominated, and lobe-dominated quasars are consistent with the BAL fraction inferred from radio and infrared surveys. We also present the distribution of BAL quasars as a function of quasar orientation by using the radio core-dominance as an orientation indicator. A similar analysis is performed for HiBALs, LoBALs, and FeLoBALs. All the radio morphological sub-classes and BAL sub-classes show an increase in BAL fraction at high orientation angles of the jets with respect to the line of sight. Our analysis suggests that BAL quasars are more likely to be found in viewing angles close to the equatorial plane of the quasar. However, a pure orientation model is inadequate, and a combination of orientation and evolution is probably the best way to explain the complete BAL phenomena.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

AutoEnRichness: A hybrid empirical and analytical approach for estimating the richness of galaxy clusters

ABSTRACT We introduce AutoEnRichness, a hybrid approach that combines empirical and analytical strategies to determine the richness of galaxy clusters (in the redshift range of 0.1 ≤ z ≤ 0.35) using photometry data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 16, where cluster richness can be used as a proxy for cluster mass. In order to reliably estimate cluster richness, it is vital that the background subtraction is as accurate as possible when distinguishing cluster and field galaxies to mitigate severe contamination. AutoEnRichness is comprised of a multistage machine learning algorithm that performs background subtraction of interloping field galaxies along the cluster line of sight and a conventional luminosity distribution fitting approach that estimates cluster richness based only on the number of galaxies within a magnitude range and search area. In this proof-of-concept study, we obtain a balanced accuracy of 83.20 per cent when distinguishing between cluster and field galaxies as well as a median absolute percentage error of 33.50 per cent between our estimated cluster richnesses and known cluster richnesses within r200. In the future, we aim for AutoEnRichness to be applied on upcoming large-scale optical surveys, such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time and Euclid, to estimate the richness of a large sample of galaxy groups and clusters from across the halo mass function. This would advance our overall understanding of galaxy evolution within overdense environments as well as enable cosmological parameters to be further constrained.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification of optical models in fission fragment deexcitation

Here, we take the first step towards incorporating compound nuclear observables at astrophysically relevant energies into the experimental evidence used to constrain optical models, by propagating the uncertainty in two global optical potentials, one phenomenological and one microscopic, to correlated fission observables using the Monte Carlo Hauser-Feshbach formalism. We compare to a wide range of historic and recent experimental fission measurements, and discuss in detail regions of disagreement. We find that the parametric optical model uncertainty in neutron-fragment correlated observables involving neutron energy is significant. On the other hand, we observe that other experimental features, particularly neutron-fragment correlations near the 132 Sn shell closure and the high energy component of neutron spectra, are unlikely to be explained by the optical potential, and will require further experimental and theoretical effort to explain.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Physiological Controls on Carbon Fluxes and Biomass Production in Miscanthus: Insights From a Process‐Based Agroecosystem Model

Biomass crops serve as essential feedstocks for renewable energy and bioproducts and play a critical role in achieving lower emissions in the transportation sector. However, dedicated perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) remain underrepresented in process-based agroecosystem models, limiting robust evaluation of their economic and environmental performance. In this study, we developed a data-constrained representation of the sterile triploid Miscanthus (IL clone) within the process-based model ecosys, integrating global sensitivity analysis, ensemble simulation, and parameter calibration. Planting, harvesting, and fertilization practices consistent with field management were incorporated, and phenology was constrained using PhenoCam-derived Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) data. Using the Morris global sensitivity analysis method, we identified 11 key physiological parameters governing plant carbon, water, and nutrient relations, particularly processes associated with CO 2 assimilation. We then conducted ensemble simulations by perturbing these parameters and calibrated the model against eddy covariance fluxes and field-measured biomass. Building on the calibrated operating state, parameter-response analyses show that different photosynthetic processes influence productivity in different ways. Protein allocation determines whether productivity increases toward a higher level, whereas electron transport capacity controls additional gains once protein allocation approaches saturation. These findings demonstrate that parameter importance depends on physiological context and on which photosynthetic processes remain limiting. Calibration and validation against observations show that ecosys can reliably reproduce carbon and water fluxes, as well as both above- and belowground biomass, with post-calibration GPP R 2 improving from 0.67 to 0.95 during the calibration period and remaining high during validation (R 2 = 0.95). These results provide a mechanistic foundation for regional simulations and sustainable bioenergy assessments.

ecosys↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measurements of multiplicity fluctuations of identified hadrons in inelastic proton–proton interactions at the CERN Super Proton Synchrotron

Measurements of multiplicity fluctuations of identified hadrons produced in inelastic p+p interactions at 31, 40, 80, and 158 $\text {Ge}\text {V}/c$ beam momentum are presented. Three different measures of multiplicity fluctuations are used: the scaled variance $\omega $ and strongly intensive measures $\Sigma $ and $\Delta $. These fluctuation measures involve second and first moments of joint multiplicity distributions. Data analysis is preformed using the Identity method which corrects for incomplete particle identification. Strongly intensive quantities are calculated in order to allow for a direct comparison to corresponding results on nucleus–nucleus collisions. The results for different hadron types are shown as a function of collision energy. A comparison with predictions of string-resonance Monte-Carlo models: Epos, Smash and Venus, is also presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Noble-Lab/crema

Confidence Estimation for Mass Spectrometry Proteomics. Crema is an open-source Python tool that estimates the false discovery rate (FDR) of a set of peptide-spectrum matches that result from proteomics data analysis. Crema implements standard FDR estimation methods that are widely used within the field. This package is meant to be simple, easy to use, stand-along, and easy to maintain.

See, Donavan↗

DOE OSTI2020

PARAFAC_T1

This is a method of performing trilinear analysis on large data sets using a modification of the PARAFAC-ALS algorithm. It iteratively decomposes the data matrix into a core matrix and three loading matrices based on the Tucker1 model. The algorithm is particularly useful for data sets that are too large to upload into a computer?s main memory. While the performance advantage in utilizing our algorithm is dependent on the number of data elements and dimensions of the data array, we have seen a significant performance improvement over operating PARAFAC-ALS on the full data set. SAND2020-12649 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Van Benthem, Mark↗

DOE OSTI2020

Examining Perceptions of Spanish Language Health Information Among Hispanics Living in the United States: A Qualitative Study Assessing Videos, Brochures, and Websites

Background Nationally, Hispanics experience health disparities manifested as a higher prevalence of chronic diseases in comparison to non-Hispanic Whites. Factors that influence health disparities in this population include inadequate dissemination of culturally and linguistically appropriate health information. Method Our qualitative analysis is based on data obtained from three focus groups with Spanish-speaking Hispanic adults conducted at a clinic in Nebraska. Participants were asked about their perceptions of health information in the form of videos, brochures, and websites. We followed the consolidated criteria for reporting qualitative research and used the theoretical framework of content analysis. Results For videos, attributes associated with higher levels of trust included a friendly health professional, the logo or name of a health care institute, and a reference specifying “se habla Español.” For brochures, attributes associated with trust included use of visual aids, use of numerous colors and big font sizes, the year of printing, and a health care agency logo. For websites, characteristics associated with trust were inclusion of plain language, use of pictures and videos, and date of last update. In all focus groups, participants perceived the use of mixed English/Spanish language in health information from pamphlets and websites as unprofessional. The use of unknown governmental logos in health promotional videos and websites was perceived as untrustworthy information. Conclusions Spanish-speaking Hispanics prefer health information supported by a health care agency or delivered by a health care professional. Health communication strategies should avoid the use of mixed English/Spanish language in sensitive information especially when combined with governmental logos.

De Alba Rosales, Armando↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating proxies for the drivers of natural gas productivity using machine-learning models

We report the extensive development of unconventional reservoirs using horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing has generated large volumes of reservoir characterization and production data. The analysis of this abundant data using statistical methods and advanced machine-learning (ML) techniques can provide data-driven insights into well performance. Most predictive modeling studies have focused on the impact that different well completion and stimulation strategies have on well production but have not fully exploited the available in situ rock property data to determine its role in reservoir productivity. We have used machine-learning techniques to rank rock mechanical properties, microseismic attributes, and stimulation parameters in the order of their significance for predicting natural gas production from an unconventional reservoir. The data for this study came from a hydraulically fractured well in the Marcellus Shale in Monongalia County, West Virginia. The data classes included measurements aggregated by well completion stage that included (1) gas production, (2) well-log-derived measurements including bulk density, elastic moduli, shear impedance, compressional impedance, brittleness, and gamma measurements, (3) microseismic attributes, (4) long-period long-duration (LPLD) event counts, (5) fracture counts, and (6) stimulation parameters that included the fluid injection volume and average pumping pressure. To identify observable proxies for the drivers of gas production, we evaluated five commonly used ML approaches including multivariate adaptive regression spline, Gaussian mixture model, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network. We selected five variables including LPLD event count, seismogenic b-value, hydraulic diffusivity, cumulative moment, and fluid volume as the features most likely to impact gas productivity at the stage level in the study area. The data-driven selection of these parameters for their importance in determining gas production can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs. Plain language summary: We use machine-learning methods and data-driven selection of reservoir parameters to rank and better understand their importance in determining gas production, which can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Physiological Controls on Carbon Fluxes and Biomass Production in Miscanthus: Insights From a Process- Based Agroecosystem Model

Biomass crops serve as essential feedstocks for renewable energy and bioproducts and play a critical role in achieving lower emissions in the transportation sector. However, dedicated perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) remain underrepresented in process- based agroecosystem models, limiting robust evaluation of their economic and environmental performance. In this study, we developed a data- constrained representation of the sterile triploid Miscanthus (IL clone) within the process- based model ecosys, integrating global sensitivity analysis, ensemble simulation, and parameter calibration. Planting, harvesting, and fertilization practices consistent with field management were incorporated, and phenology was constrained using PhenoCam- derived Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) data. Using the Morris global sensitivity analysis method, we identified 11 key physiological parameters governing plant carbon, water, and nutrient relations, particularly processes associated with CO2 assimilation. We then conducted ensemble simulations by perturbing these parameters and calibrated the model against eddy covariance fluxes and field- measured biomass. Building on the calibrated operating state, parameter- response analyses show that different photosynthetic processes influence productivity in different ways. Protein allocation determines whether productivity increases toward a higher level, whereas electron transport capacity controls additional gains once protein allocation approaches saturation. These findings demonstrate that parameter importance depends on physiological context and on which photosynthetic processes remain limiting. Calibration and validation against observations show that ecosys can reliably reproduce carbon and water fluxes, as well as both above- and belowground biomass, with post- calibration GPP R2 improving from 0.67 to 0.95 during the calibration period and remaining high during validation (R2 = 0.95). These results provide a mechanistic foundation for regional simulations and sustainable bioenergy assessments.

Carbon↗

DOE OSTI2020

Messaging for Impact: Behavioral Science-Based Communication Strategies to Advance Energy Efficiency

Currently, five legal authorities require U.S. federal agencies to purchase energy-efficient products. However, compliance with these requirements has consistently been low (~55%). Recent surveys indicate that energy efficiency requirements are not communicated properly within federal agencies and energy-efficiency is not a top priority. In the constantly evolving energy industry, with many solutions for a clean energy future, effective communication methods are vital for widespread adoption of energy efficiency. We have been conducting experiments within the U.S. federal sector that test the effectiveness of messaging strategies developed by using behavioral science principles like loss aversion, framing, and herd behavior. This will identify effective communications methods that encourage energy efficiency adoption. In this study, we measure the effectiveness of different communication strategies by monitoring the web traffic of hyperlinks placed within our digital communications and outreach materials. To determine effective strategies that influence federal buyer behavior, the web traffic from subjects that received the behavioral science-based messaging (treatment group) is compared to that from subjects that received regular messaging (control group) for each of the strategies. This paper provides an overview of the behavioral science principles that we applied, data collection methods, and results of our analysis. Since the lack of effective communication of energy-efficiency policies is also a common problem in the private sector, the messaging strategies developed in this study can be applicable to other large private sector institutions

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comprehensive Chemical Fingerprinting by Multidimensional GC and Supervised Machine Learning

This project leverages advances in machine learning based data analysis techniques and untargeted omic analytical methods to progress nuclear nonproliferation technologies beyond current capabilities. The developed approaches can be used to identify and detect complex chemical fingerprints of facilities of interest. These techniques have been developed for fields such as metabolomics and genomics but have not been applied to nuclear nonproliferation applications. Adaptation of these techniques for volatile organic compound analysis has far reaching application within the scientific community including environmental chemistry, atmospheric physics, and climate sciences.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Milestone 7714 National Opacity Program: High-Fidelity Iron Data on NIF

Establish the level of reproducibility of NIF iron opacity shots, quantify to-date improvements in data quality through, e.g. background reduction, improved signal, and improved analysis methods, and formalize the approach that will be taken in the future to compare NIF data, Z data, and theory.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Our teams design high-resolution MeV x-ray radiography systems for National security missions [Poster]

The NNSS has been at the forefront of custom high-fidelity x-ray/gamma radiographic imaging solutions that serve our national security for over five decades. Our radiography team utilizes expertise in physics modeling and analysis, along with optical, mechanical, and electrical design, in close collaboration with our customers, to develop imaging methods and capabilities that go beyond their needs. Conceptual designs are developed through R&D efforts to provide solutions for the specific problem at hand. Field systems are designed and built in-house, then qualified utilizing a range of facilities across the National Security Enterprise. Radiographic imaging systems are deployed by our team in the most challenging environments. The NNSS has a strong math and programming team that provides novel on-site image analysis methods that extract crucial information from data returned in field tests.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exxon Mobil-NETL Testing of DAC Materials

This joint initiative is aimed at extending our understanding of real DAC testing conditions at the NETL DAC testbed facility. Of particular focus will be: • Small Scale testing of powdered and formulated materials (supplied by ExxonMobil) to evaluate various performance metrics under DAC process cycles • Pilot scale testing of formulated materials at larger scales ExxonMobil will work with NETL to shake down equipment, validate testing methods, and define best practices for data analysis. Three tasks are proposed: 1. Validation of multi-cycle test data on powdered and formulated materials to benchmark various performance metrics of these materials. 2. Steam regeneration of powdered samples at small scale to define baseline performance under commercially relevant conditions. 3. Pilot scale testing of larger formulated materials to test commercially relevant samples under actual process cycles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗