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At least 415 records · Page 23

Spectral estimators of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation in corn canopies

Most models of crop growth and yield require an estimate of canopy leaf area index (LAI) or absorption of radiation. Relationships between photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorbed by corn canopies and the spectral reflectance of the canopies were investigated. Reflectance factor data were acquired with a LANDSAT MSS band radiometer. From planting to silking, the three spectrally predicted vegetation indices examined were associated with more than 95% of the variability in absorbed PAR. The relationships developed between absorbed PAR and the three indices were evaluated with reflectance factor data acquired from corn canopies planted in 1979 through 1982. Seasonal cumulations of measured LAI and each of the three indices were associated with greater than 50% of the variation in final grain yields from the test years. Seasonal cumulations of daily absorbed PAR were associated with up to 73% of the variation in final grain yields. Absorbed PAR, cumulated through the growing season, is a better indicator of yield than cumulated leaf area index. Absorbed PAR may be estimated reliably from spectral reflectance data of crop canopies.

Gallo, K. P.↗

Spectral estimators of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation in corn canopies

Most models of crop growth and yield require an estimate of canopy leaf area index (LAI) or absorption of radiation. Relationships between photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorbed by corn canopies and the spectral reflectance of the canopies were investigated. Reflectance factor data were acquired with a Landsat MSS band radiometer. From planting to silking, the three spectrally predicted vegetation indices examined were associated with more than 95 percent of the variability in absorbed PAR. The relationships developed between absorbed PAR and the three indices were evaluated with reflectance factor data acquired from corn canopies planted in 1979 through 1982. Seasonal cumulations of measured LAI and each of the three indices were associated with greater than 50 percent of the variation in final grain yields from the test years. Seasonal cumulations of daily absorbed PAR were associated with up to 73 percent of the variation in final grain yields. Absorbed PAR, cumulated through the growing season, is a better indicator of yield than cumulated leaf area index. Absorbed PAR may be estimated reliably from spectral reflectance data of crop canopies.

Gallo, K. P.↗

Spatial scales of cirrus cloud properties

Research in studying the spatial scales of the cirrus, used data collected during the flight legs of the NCAR Sabreliner aircraft on four days during the FIRE Cirrus IFO to study the spatial scales of the cirrus, and will concentrate on the scales of horizontal wind. The spatial scales of the cloud features can be described by power spectra (or spectral density graphs) and cumulative variance graphs. The cumulative variance graphs were created by first using a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to create variance spectra. The variances were then summed in a cumulative fashion from the largest scalelengths (wavelengths) to the smallest. No detrending was done to the original data, and no smoothing or averaging was done to the spectral points. All the spectral points were included. This means that the values of the first five to ten spectral points of the large scalelengths should only be considered to be qualitatively correct. The cumulative variance at smaller scalelengths should be correct because a more accurate representation of the variance at the larger scalelengths should only redistribute the energy amongst the larger scalelengths.

Hein, Paul F.↗

Site diversity for satellite earth terminals and measurements at 28 GHz

This paper reviews site diversity concepts and models and presents the results of a site diversity experiment, in which radiometers were used to measure attenuation on earth-space paths, performed at Columbus, Ohio, for a period of one year. Attenuation statistics are presented first in the form of the joint probability density function of attenuation at the two sites. From these are derived the cumulative two-dimensional distribution of attenuation at both sites, the cumulative distribution of attenuation at each site, the effective cumulative distribution of attenuation for a diversity system that always switches to the better of two signals, and the effective cumulative distribution of attenuation for a system with maximal-ratio signal combining. The switched-system diversity gain is compared with Hodge's predictive model, and the diversity improvement is compared with Boithias' model. Fade-duration and interfade-interval statistics are also presented for each site and for systems that employ switching and maximal-ratio combining. Rain-rate and interrainfall interval statistics are also included.

Lin, Kuan-Ting↗

Power-law confusion: You say incremental, I say differential

Power-law distributions are commonly used to describe the frequency of occurrences of crater diameters, stellar masses, ring particle sizes, planetesimal sizes, and meteoroid masses to name a few. The distributions are simple, and this simplicity has led to a number of misstatements in the literature about the kind of power-law that is being used: differential, cumulative, or incremental. Although differential and cumulative power-laws are mathematically trivial, it is a hybrid incremental distribution that is often used and the relationship between the incremental distribution and the differential or cumulative distributions is not trivial. In many cases the slope of an incremental power-law will be nearly identical to the slope of the cumulative power-law of the same distribution, not the differential slope. The discussion that follows argues for a consistent usage of these terms and against the oft-made implicit claim that incremental and differential distributions are indistinguishable.

Colwell, Joshua E.↗

Basalt generation at the Apollo 12 site. Part 2: Source heterogeneity, multiple melts, and crustal contamination

The petrogenesis of Apollo 12 mare basalts has been examined with emphasis on trace-element ratios and abundances. Vitrophyric basalts were used as parental compositions for the modeling, and proportions of fractionating phases were determined using the MAGFOX prograqm of Longhi (1991). Crystal fractionation processes within crustal and sub-crustal magma chambers are evaluated as a function of pressure. Knowledge of the fractionating phases allows trace-element variations to be considered as either source related or as a product of post-magma-generation processes. For the ilmenite and olivine basalts, trace-element variations are inherited from the source, but the pigeonite basalt data have been interpreted with open-system evolution processes through crustal assimilation. Three groups of basalts have been examined: (1) Pigeonite basalts-produced by the assimilation of lunar crustal material by a parental melt (up to 3% assimilation and 10% crystal fractionation, with an 'r' value of 0.3). (2) Ilmenite basalts-produced by variable degrees of partial melting (4-8%) of a source of olivine, pigeonite, augite, and plagioclase, brought together by overturn of the Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) cumulate pile. After generation, which did not exhaust any of the minerals in the source, these melts experienced closed-system crystal fractionation/accumulation. (3) Olivine basalts-produced by variable degrees of partial melting (5-10%) of a source of olivine, pigeonite, and augite. After generation, again without exhausting any of the minerals in the source, these melts evolved through crystal accumulation. The evolved liquid counterparts of these cumulates have not been sampled. The source compositions for the ilmenite and olivine basalts were calculated by assuming that the vitrophyric compositions were primary and the magmas were produced by non-modal batch melting. Although the magnitude is unclear, evaluation of these source regions indicates that both be composed of early- and late-stage Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) cumulates, requiring an overturn of the cumulate pile.

Neal, Clive R.↗

REE Partition Coefficients from Synthetic Diogenite-Like Enstatite and the Implications of Petrogenetic Modeling

Determining the petrogenesis of eucrites (basaltic achondrites) and diogenites (orthopyroxenites) and the possible links between the meteorite types was initiated 30 years ago by Mason. Since then, most investigators have worked on this question. A few contrasting theories have emerged, with the important distinction being whether or not there is a direct genetic link between eucrites and diogenites. One theory suggests that diogenites are cumulates resulting from the fractional crystallization of a parent magma with the eucrites crystallizing, from the residual magma after separation from the diogenite cumulates. Another model proposes that diogenites are cumulates formed from partial melts derived from a source region depleted by the prior generation of eucrite melts. It has also been proposed that the diogenites may not be directly linked to the eucrites and that they are cumulates derived from melts that are more orthopyroxene normative than the eucrites. This last theory has recently received more analytical and experimental support. One of the difficulties with petrogenetic modeling is that it requires appropriate partition coefficients for modeling because they are dependent on temperature, pressure, and composition. For this reason, we set out to determine minor- and trace-element partition coefficients for diogenite-like orthopyroxene. We have accomplished this task and now have enstatite/melt partition coefficients for Al, Cr, Ti, La, Ce, Nd, Sm, Eu, Dy, Er, Yb, and La.

Schwandt, C. S.↗

The Response of African Land Surface Phenology to Large Scale Climate Oscillations

Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the African continent. Analysis of changes in phenology can provide quantitative information on the effect of climate variability on growing seasons in agricultural regions. Using a robust statistical methodology, we describe the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). We map the most significant positive and negative correlation for the four climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa between two phenological metrics and the climate indices. Our objective is to provide evidence of whether climate variability captured in the four indices has had a significant impact on the vegetative productivity of Africa during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by large scale variations in climate. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. In Western Africa the cumulative NDVI correlates with PDO in September-November. In Eastern Africa the start of the June-October season strongly correlates with PDO in March-May, while the PDO in December-February correlates with the start of the February-June season. The cumulative NDVI over this last season relates to the MEI of March-May. For Southern Africa, high correlations exist between SOS and NAO of September-November, and cumulative NDVI and MEI of March-May. The research shows that climate indices can be used to anticipate late start and variable vigor in the growing season of sensitive agricultural regions in Africa.

Brown, Molly E.↗

Automated ISS Flight Utilities

During my internship at NASA Johnson Space Center, I worked in the Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG), where I was tasked with a number of projects focused on the automation of tasks and activities related to the operation of the International Space Station (ISS). As I worked on a number of projects, I have written short sections below to give a description for each, followed by more general remarks on the internship experience. My first project is titled "General Exposure Representation EVADOSE", also known as "GEnEVADOSE". This project involved the design and development of a C++/ ROOT framework focused on radiation exposure for extravehicular activity (EVA) planning for the ISS. The utility helps mission managers plan EVAs by displaying information on the cumulative radiation doses that crew will receive during an EVA as a function of the egress time and duration of the activity. SRAG uses a utility called EVADOSE, employing a model of the space radiation environment in low Earth orbit to predict these doses, as while outside the ISS the astronauts will have less shielding from charged particles such as electrons and protons. However, EVADOSE output is cumbersome to work with, and prior to GEnEVADOSE, querying data and producing graphs of ISS trajectories and cumulative doses versus egress time required manual work in Microsoft Excel. GEnEVADOSE automates all this work, reading in EVADOSE output file(s) along with a plaintext file input by the user providing input parameters. GEnEVADOSE will output a text file containing all the necessary dosimetry for each proposed EVA egress time, for each specified EVADOSE file. It also plots cumulative dose versus egress time and the ISS trajectory, and displays all of this information in an auto-generated presentation made in LaTeX. New features have also been added, such as best-case scenarios (egress times corresponding to the least dose), interpolated curves for trajectories, and the ability to query any time in the EVADES output. As mentioned above, GEnEVADOSE makes extensive use of ROOT version 6, the data analysis framework developed at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), and the code is written to the C++11 standard (as are the other projects). My second project is the Automated Mission Reference Exposure Utility (AMREU).Unlike GEnEVADOSE, AMREU is a combination of three frameworks written in both Python and C++, also making use of ROOT (and PyROOT). Run as a combination of daily and weekly cron jobs, these macros query the SRAG database system to determine the active ISS missions, and query minute-by-minute radiation dose information from ISS-TEPC (Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter), one of the radiation detectors onboard the ISS. Using this information, AMREU creates a corrected data set of daily radiation doses, addressing situations where TEPC may be offline or locked up by correcting doses for days with less than 95% live time (the total amount time the instrument acquires data) by averaging the past 7 days. As not all errors may be automatically detectable, AMREU also allows for manual corrections, checking an updated plaintext file each time it runs. With the corrected data, AMREU generates cumulative dose plots for each mission, and uses a Python script to generate a flight note file (.docx format) containing these plots, as well as information sections to be filled in and modified by the space weather environment officers with information specific to the week. AMREU is set up to run without requiring any user input, and it automatically archives old flight notes and information files for missions that are no longer active. My other projects involve cleaning up a large data set from the Charged Particle Directional Spectrometer (CPDS), joining together many different data sets in order to clean up information in SRAG SQL databases, and developing other automated utilities for displaying information on active solar regions, that may be used by the space weather environment officers to monitor solar activity. I consulted my mentor Dr. Ryan Rios and Dr. Kerry Lee for project requirements and added features, and ROOT developer Edmond Offermann for advice on using the ROOT library. I also received advice and feedback from Dr. Janet Barzilla of SRAG, who tested my code. Besides these inputs, I worked independently, writing all of the code by myself. The code for all these projects is documented throughout, and I have attempted to write it in a modular format. Assuming that ROOT is updated accordingly, these codes are also Y2038-compliant (and Y10K-compliant). This allows the code to be easily referenced, modified and possibly repurposed for non-ISS missions in the future, should the necessary inputs exist. These projects have taught me a lot about coding and software design - I have become a much more skilled C++ programmer and ROOT user, and I also learned to code in Python and PyROOT (and its advantages and disadvantages compared to C++/ ROOT). Furthermore, I have learned about space radiation and radiation modeling, topics that greatly interest me as I pursue a degree in physics. Working alongside experimental physicists like Dr. Rios, I have developed a greater understanding and appreciation for experimental science, something I have always leaned towards but to which I lacked significant exposure. My work in SRAG has also given me the invaluable opportunity to witness the work environment for physicists at NASA, and what a career in academia may look like at a government laboratory such as NASA Johnson Space Center. As I continue my studies and look forward to graduate school and a future career, this experience at NASA has given me a meaningful and enjoyable opportunity to put my skills to use and see what my future career path might hold.

Offermann, Jan Tuzlic↗

Statistical Hypothesis Testing in Wavelet Analysis: Theoretical Developments and Applications to Indian Rainfall

Statistical hypothesis tests in wavelet analysis are methods that assess the degree to which a wavelet quantity(e.g., power and coherence) exceeds background noise. Commonly, a point-wise approach is adopted in which a wavelet quantity at every point in a wavelet spectrum is individually compared to the critical level of the point-wise test. However, because adjacent wavelet coefficients are correlated and wavelet spectra often contain many wavelet quantities, the point-wise test can produce many false positive results that occur in clusters or patches. To circumvent the point-wise test drawbacks, it is necessary to implement the recently developed area-wise, geometric, cumulative area-wise, and topological significance tests, which are reviewed and developed in this paper. To improve the computational efficiency of the cumulative area-wise test, a simplified version of the testing procedure is created based on the idea that its output is the mean of individual estimates of statistical significance calculated from the geometric test applied at a set of point-wise significance levels. Ideal examples are used to show that the geometric and cumulative area-wise tests are unable to differentiate wavelet spectral features arising from singularity-like structures from those associated with periodicities. A cumulative arc-wise test is therefore developed to strictly test for periodicities by using normalized arc length, which is defined as the number of points composing a cross section of a patch divided by the wavelet scale in question. A previously proposed topological significance test is formalized using persistent homology profiles (PHPs) measuring the number of patches and holes corresponding to the set of all point-wise significance values. Ideal examples show that the PHPs can be used to distinguish time series containing signal components from those that are purely noise. To demonstrate the practical uses of the existing and newly developed statistical methodologies, a first comprehensive wavelet analysis of Indian rainfall is also provided. An R software package has been written by the author to implement the various testing procedures.

Wind speed↗

Plagioclase Compositions of Eucrites and Eucrite-Type Achondrites

Eucrites are basalts, diabases and gabbros composed of ferroan pigeonite and augite, calcic plagioclase, and a silica phase, with accessory amounts of ilmenite, chromite, Ca-phosphate, troilite, metal and olivine. Many of the gabbroic-textured eucrites are cumulates from a mafic magma, while most other eucrites are close to melt compositions. These are referred to as cumulate and basaltic eucrites. Petrologic, compositional and isotopic studies have identified several mafic achondrites with eucritic mineralogy that have anomalous properties, and some of these are considered to have been derived from different parent asteroids than normal eucrites. These are referred to as eucrite-type achondrites, and they include cumulate and basaltic types. Petrologic studies of eucrites often concentrate on pyroxene compositions to reveal the petrogenetic history of the rocks and plagioclase compositions are less utilized. Here I examine Na and K variations of a suite of basaltic and cumulate eucrites and eucrite-type achondrites.

Mittlefehldt, David W.↗

The Abundances of F, Cl, and H2O in 4Vesta from Eucrites

The abundance and distribution of magmatic volatiles (i.e., H, C, N, F, S, and Cl) within the silicate portion of a differentiated planetary body has important consequences on its thermochemical evolution. However, the abundances of magmatic volatiles within differentiated bodies are difficult to quantify, and they are often depleted by varying degrees relative to CI chondrites. The mechanisms of depletion are not well constrained and could relate to intrinsic volatile depletion of the building blocks that formed the bodies, high temperature processes that result from accretion, post-accretion loss through parent body geological processes and large-scale impacts, and/or redistribution within a parent body through processes like core formation [1–4]. In the present study, we aim to constrain the abundances of F, Cl, and H2O in eucrites to better understand the magnitude of volatile depletion on 4Vesta. To accomplish this objective, we report electron microprobe analyses of apatite from seven unbrecciated, non-cumulate eucrites (i.e., CMS 04049,GRA 98098, LEW 88010, MAC 02522, MAC 041169,QUE 94484, and QUE 97053) and two monomict, non-cumulate eucrites (i.e., Berthoud and Stannern). In combination with previously published data on eucrite-hosted apatite, we determine Cl/F and H2O/F ratios in bulk rock eucrites through the application of apatite-based melt hygrometry and chlorometry [e.g., 5–7].Additionally, we estimate the bulk rock abundances of F in six non-cumulate eucrites (i.e., GRA 98098, MAC041169, PCA 91078, QUE 97053, Stannern, and Berthoud), which we combine with previously published bulk rock F data on non-cumulate eucrites[8] to constrain the abundances of F, Cl, and H2O in 4Vesta using appropriately paired volatile/refractory element ratios for F, followed by Cl/F and H2O/F ratios for Cl and H2O, respectively.

F M McCubbin↗

Approximation of ice phenology of Maine lakes using Aqua MODIS surface temperature data

Studies of lake ice phenology have historically relied on limited in situ data. Relatively few observations exist for ice out and fewer still for ice in, both of which are necessary to determine the temporal extent of ice cover. Satellite data provide an opportunity to better document patterns of ice phenology across landscapes and relate them to the climatological drivers behind changing ice phenology. We developed a model, the Cumulative Sum Method (CSM), that uses daytime and nighttime surface temperature observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on board the Earth-observing Aqua satellite to approximate ice in (the onset of ice cover) and ice out from training datasets of 13 and 58 Maine lakes, respectively, during the 2002/2003 through 2017/2018 ice seasons. Ice in was signaled by reaching a threshold of cumulative negative degrees following the first day of the season below 0°C. Ice out was signaled by reaching a threshold of cumulative positive degrees following the first day of the year above 0°C. The comparison of observed and remotely sensed ice-in dates showed relative agreement with a correlation coefficient of 0.71 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 9.8 days. Ice-out approximations had a correlation coefficient of 0.67 and an MAE of 8.8 days. Lakes smaller in surface area and nearer the Atlantic coast had the greatest error in approximation. Application of the CSM to 20 additional lakes in Maine produced a comparable ice-out MAE of 8.9 days. Ice-out model performance was weaker for the warmest years; there was a larger MAE of 12.0 days when the model was applied to the years 2019–2023 for the original 58 lakes. The development of this model, which utilizes daily satellite data, demonstrates the promise of remote sensing for quantifying ice phenology over short, temporal scales, and wider geographic regions than can be observed in situ, and allows exploration of the influence of surface temperature patterns on the process and timing of ice in and ice out.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cellular and extracellular C contributions to respiration after wetting dry soil

Wetting of dry soil triggers a pulse of microbial respiration that has been attributed to two broad mechanisms: (1) recycling of microbial cellular carbon (C), and (2) consumption of extracellular organic C made available to microbes by wetting. We evaluated these two mechanisms by measuring cumulative CO 2 release, changes in the size and chemical composition of microbial biomass, and water-extractable organic carbon (WEOC) concentrations following artificial wetting of soil sampled from two depths at each of seven sites across California spanning a range of geologic parent materials. In samples collected from surface soil (0–10 cm depth), we found that cumulative CO 2 release after wetting in the laboratory was most strongly correlated with microbial biomass. In these samples, the relative abundance of trehalose—a putative microbial osmolyte—decreased from 25% (SD = 12) to 16% (SD = 7) of the chloroform-labile fraction of the microbial biomass after wetting. This suggested a role for osmolyte consumption in generating the respiration pulse. In subsoil (40–50 cm depth, or sampled at contact with rock), however, the cumulative CO2 release after wetting was unrelated to microbial biomass and more strongly related to WEOC. The concentrations of selected microbial biomass constituents (e.g. trehalose and amino acids) in WEOC were negligible (< 1%), suggesting that cell lysis was not important in generating WEOC in this study. The amount of WEOC relative to total organic C was greatest in subsoil, and negatively related to ammonium oxalate-extractable Fe (Pearson’s R = 0.42, p < 0.01), suggesting a role for soil mineralogical properties in controlling WEOC release. Together, these findings suggest that microbial cellular C and extracellular C jointly contribute to the respiration pulse, and that their relative contribution depends on depth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Nuclear excitation functions for medical isotope production: Targeted radionuclide therapy via nat IR$(d, x)$ 193m Pt

193m Pt is an Auger emitting radionuclide which may have therapeutic potential, particularly when labeled to the chemotherapeutic drug cisplatin. One challenge to broader explorations of its clinical potential is the need for production routes with high specific activity. As part of a larger campaign to address gaps in reaction data for emerging medical radionuclides, this work seeks to characterize the nat Ir(d,x) reactions as a potential production pathway for 193m Pt. A stacked target irradiation, consisting of natural iridium, iron, nickel, and copper foils, was performed using a 33 MeV deuteron beam at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 88-Inch Cyclotron. This measurement, along with previous experimental data, suggests an energy window between 11 to 18 MeV to maximize the production and radiopurity of 193m Pt. This experiment has yielded cross sections for 43 channels of deuteron-induced reactions from threshold to 30 MeV, including the first experimental results of nat Ir(d,x) 188m1+g,190m1+g Ir (cumulative), nat Ni(d,x) 56,57,58 m,58g Co (independent), nat Cu(d,x) 61 Co (cumulative) and nat Fe(d,x) 53 Fe, 48 V (cumulative). The results were compared with literature data, the TENDL-2023 database, and default theoretical calculations from the TALYS-2.04, CoH-3.6.0, EMPIRE 3.2.3, and ALICE-2020 reaction modeling codes. Here, this work presents another example of the lack of predictive capabilities for this set of modern nuclear-reaction modeling codes, and highlights the unsatisfactory modeling of experimental cross sections. Experimental data are important to improve the codes in general, and new experimental results can be used to improve the models. Finally, this measurement has revealed the need for an updated evaluation of the nat Cu(d,x) 63 Zn deuteron monitor reaction.

193mPt↗

A Monte-Carlo method for Coulomb collisions in moderately coupled plasmas

Here, we introduce a new approach for coupling cumulative and single-scattering distributions, extending Monte Carlo methods for Coulomb collisions in weakly coupled plasmas into the moderately coupled regime. Using time steps typical of cumulative-scattering methods, we show that this approach not only recovers leading-order corrections proportional to the inverse Coulomb logarithm but also solves the full Boltzmann collision integral. A key feature of the method is its simplicity: it can be integrated into cumulative-scattering methods for weakly coupled plasmas with only ~ 10 additional lines of code.

Boltzmann collision integral↗

Evaluation of the economic implications of varied pressure drawdown strategies generated using a real-time, rapid predictive, multi-fidelity model for unconventional oil and gas wells

Experience has suggested that pressure maintenance in hydraulically fractured reservoirs via lower, more sustained production drawdowns may offer improved cumulative recovery and overall resource extraction efficiency compared to more rapid drawdown approaches aimed at generating high initial production. However, given the inherent variability of oil and natural gas markets, operators pursue production strategies that maximize profitability over resource extraction efficiency. This study focuses on evaluating the implications of contrasting pressure drawdown strategies on the long-term production and resulting economics for a real, producing unconventional gas well in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin using a techno-economic analysis approach. Our research combines elements of well-specific horizontal well design, production forecasting, equipment sizing and capital cost estimation, operating cost estimation, and revenue and tax calculations. Gas production forecast outlook scenarios were generated under varying pressure drawdowns using two approaches: 1) a novel physics-informed machine learning workflow and 2) traditional reservoir simulation. A discounted cash flow model was used to evaluate the resulting economic implications for each drawdown scenario—generating output for exploring the coupled effect of factors like the timing and volume of gas production, prevailing economic and market conditions for natural gas, and overall estimated ultimate recovery on profitability metrics such as internal rate of return and net present value. Results show that there is potential to maximize the cumulative gas produced in the specific case study well by employing a lower pressure drawdown. Conversely, the greatest profitability is achieved using rapid drawdown as signified by a small, specific subset of our outlook scenarios. On an averaging basis, we find that the combinations of highest cumulative producing and most profitable scenarios occur under lower drawdowns with long (>40 years) producing timeframes, but require higher relative gas price and lower discounting considerations. Further, the machine learning predictive outlooking capability proved effective for enabling rapid generation of a multitude of scenario forecasts. As a result, a variety of prominent example cases could be generated to strike the balance of greater productivity and economic return given their associated producing features and economic conditions when compared to similar producing scenarios—critical insight that offers improved decision support for unconventional oil and gas operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Spectrum of Dirac eigenvalues across QCD chiral transition

Here, we show that the universal scaling properties of the chiral phase transition in quantum chromodynamics (QCD) at the macroscale are encoded in the microscopic energy levels of the quarks in the background of gluon fields, defined as eigenvalues of the Dirac operator. We introduce a novel relation between the cumulants of the chiral condensate, and the correlations among the energy levels of quarks, i.e., the eigenspectra of the massless QCD Dirac operator. This relation elucidates how the fluctuations of the chiral condensate arise from the correlations within the infrared part of the energy spectra of quarks, and naturally leads to a generalization of the Banks-Casher relation for the cumulants of the chiral condensate. Then, through (2+1)-flavor lattice QCD calculations using HISQ action with varying light quark masses around the chiral phase transition temperature, we demonstrate that the correlations among the infrared part of the Dirac eigenvalue spectra exhibit same universal scaling behaviors as expected of the cumulants of the chiral condensate. We find that these universal scaling behaviors extend up to the physical values of the up and down quark masses.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗