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At least 415 records · Page 23

Report on the Atmospheric Temperature Changes and their Drivers (ATC) Activity 2025 Spring Meeting

The Atmospheric Temperature Change and their Drivers (ATC) Activity brings together experts interested in improving understanding of atmospheric temperature variability and trends and their representation in climate data records. ATC pursues this goal by fostering intercomparisons of atmospheric temperature datasets, providing and improving uncertainty information for climate data records, comparing observations with model simulations, assessing atmospheric temperature trends and their drivers, and documenting their efforts in review papers and assessment reports. The ATC activity convened at the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change at the University of Graz in Graz, Austria over April 23 – 25. The purpose of the meeting was to provide updates on research and datasets related to atmospheric temperature change and variability, to identify areas that need further research, and to coordinate ongoing and future collaborations. Meeting themes included theoretical and simulated controls on atmospheric temperature, the development of new and improved atmospheric temperature datasets, and analysis of atmospheric temperature variability and trends. 18 activity members attended the meeting including 12 in-person attendees and 6 remote attendees. Four new early career activity members attended with support from APARC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Response of marine post-frontal clouds to Gulf Stream variability

Understanding how Gulf Stream variation influences cloud morphology is critical for evaluating cloud feedback in the western North Atlantic Ocean and beyond, where mesoscale air-sea interactions dominate. This study investigates the impact of altered mean sea surface temperature (SST) and SST gradients on post-frontal cloud characteristics during cold-air outbreaks, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Three sensitivity experiments are conducted: a control simulation (default SST), Plus4 (uniform SST increase of 4 K), and Gradplus (SST gradient enhanced by 25 %, centered around mean SST). Results reveal distinctly different responses in boundary layer dynamics and cloud macro-physics. In Plus4, a warmer and moister boundary layer reduces total cloud cover but promotes larger cloud sizes and elongated cloud streets, with diminished liquid water and enhanced ice-phase hydrometeors. Conversely, Gradplus amplifies impacts in the upwind colder SST regions, yielding a drier, colder boundary layer, weaker energy transport, and higher liquid water path but reduced ice water content and cloud lines. Tracer analysis highlights that SST modifications alter airmass sources near cloud tops due to the entrainment of ambient air, with Plus4 amplifying boundary layer contributions to cloud-top regions. These findings underscore the spatially varying effects of SST gradients and mean SST on cloud organization and microphysics, emphasizing the need to resolve ocean-atmosphere coupling in global models to improve the prediction of marine cloud feedback under warming scenarios.

AIR-SEA INTERACTION↗

An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles

Abstract. This work assesses a recently produced 21-member climate model large ensemble (LE) based on the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 (E3SM2). The ensemble spans the historical era (1850 to 2014) and 21st century (2015 to 2100), using the SSP370 pathway, allowing for an evaluation of the model's forced response. A companion 500-year preindustrial control simulation is used to initialize the ensemble and estimate drift. Characteristics of the LE are documented and compared against other recently produced ensembles using the E3SM version 1 (E3SM1) and Community Earth System Model (CESM) versions 1 and 2. Simulation drift is found to be smaller, and model agreement with observations is higher in versions 2 of E3SM and CESM versus their version 1 counterparts. Shortcomings in E3SM2 include a lack of warming from the mid to late 20th century, likely due to excessive cooling influence of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, an issue also evident in E3SM1. Associated impacts on the water cycle and energy budgets are also identified. Considerable model dependence in the response to both aerosols and greenhouse gases is documented and E3SM2's sensitivity to variable prescribed biomass burning emissions is demonstrated. Various E3SM2 and CESM2 model benchmarks are found to be on par with the highest-performing recent generation of climate models, establishing the E3SM2 LE as an important resource for estimating climate variability and responses, though with various caveats as discussed herein. As an illustration of the usefulness of LEs in estimating the potential influence of internal variability, the observed CERES-era trend in net top-of-atmosphere flux is compared to simulated trends and found to be much larger than the forced response in all LEs, with only a few members exhibiting trends as large as observed, thus motivating further study.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantifying wildfire drivers and predictability in boreal peatlands using a two-step error-correcting machine learning framework in TeFire v1.0

Abstract. Wildfires are becoming an increasing challenge to the sustainability of boreal peatland (BP) ecosystems and can alter the stability of boreal carbon storage. However, predicting the occurrence of rare and extreme BP fires proves to be challenging, and gaining a quantitative understanding of the factors, both natural and anthropogenic, inducing BP fires remains elusive. Here, we quantified the predictability of BP fires and their primary controlling factors from 1997 to 2015 using a two-step correcting machine learning (ML) framework that combines multiple ML classifiers, regression models, and an error-correcting technique. We found that (1) the adopted oversampling algorithm effectively addressed the unbalanced data and improved the recall rate by 26.88 %–48.62 % when using multiple datasets, and the error-correcting technique tackled the overestimation of fire sizes during fire seasons; (2) nonparametric models outperformed parametric models in predicting fire occurrences, and the random forest machine learning model performed the best, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranging from 0.83 to 0.93 across multiple fire datasets; and (3) four sets of factor-control simulations consistently indicated the dominant role of temperature, air dryness, and climate extreme (i.e., frost) for boreal peatland fires, overriding the effects of precipitation, wind speed, and human activities. Our findings demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of ML techniques in predicting rare and extreme fire events and disentangle the primary factors determining BP fires, which are critical for predicting future fire risks under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Overview of the TCV tokamak program: Scientific progress and facility upgrades

The TCV tokamak is augmenting its unique historical capabilities (strong shaping, strong electron heating) with ion heating, additional electron heating compatible with high densities, and variable divertor geometry, in a multifaceted upgrade program designed to broaden its operational range without sacrificing its fundamental flexibility. The TCV program is rooted in a three-pronged approach aimed at ITER support, explorations towards DEMO, and fundamental research. A 1 MW, tangential neutral beam injector (NBI) was recently installed and promptly extended the TCV parameter range, with record ion temperatures and toroidal rotation velocities and measurable neutral-beam current drive. ITER-relevant scenario development has received particular attention, with strategies aimed at maximizing performance through optimized discharge trajectories to avoid MHD instabilities, such as peeling-ballooning and neoclassical tearing modes. Experiments on exhaust physics have focused particularly on detachment, a necessary step to a DEMO reactor, in a comprehensive set of conventional and advanced divertor concepts. The specific theoretical prediction of an enhanced radiation region between the two X-points in the low-field-side snowflake-minus configuration was experimentally confirmed. Fundamental investigations of the power decay length in the scrape-off layer (SOL) are progressing rapidly, again in widely varying configurations and in both D and He plasmas; in particular, the double decay length in L-mode limited plasmas was found to be replaced by a single length at high SOL resistivity. Experiments on disruption mitigation by massive gas injection and electron-cyclotron resonance heating (ECRH) have begun in earnest, in parallel with studies of runaway electron generation and control, in both stable and disruptive conditions; a quiescent runaway beam carrying the entire electrical current appears to develop in some cases. Developments in plasma control have benefited from progress in individual controller design and have evolved steadily towards controller integration, mostly within an environment supervised by a tokamak profile control simulator. TCV has demonstrated effective wall conditioning with ECRH in He in support of the preparations for JT-60SA operation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Digital-computer interface systems.

Digital computer interface systems design for simulation, control, instrumentation and data processing, discussing hybrid computer linkages

Korn, G. A.↗

Shuttle status report.

The Space Shuttle Program is still in Phase B, a phase consisting predominantly of paper analyses and trade studies leading to the selection of a single design. A brief history of the program up to Phase B is discussed together with the results of the original year-long Phase B effort, and the objectives of the Phase B extension currently in work. A Lockheed study is discussed together with a Grumman/Boeing study, Phase B contractor results, displays and controls, simulations, and the flight test.

Swigert, J. L., Jr.↗

Dynamic testing of docking system hardware

Extensive dynamic testing was conducted to verify the flight readiness of the Apollo docking hardware. Testing was performed on a unique six degree-of-freedom motion simulator controlled by a computer that calculated the associated spacecraft motions. The test system and the results obtained by subjecting flight-type docking hardware to actual impact loads and resultant spacecraft dynamics are described.

Dorland, W. D.↗

Space shuttle engineering and operations support: Study of the effects of multiple ground updates on the accuracy of the onboard state vector with IMU only navigation

There are six cases considered: (1) no updates made during the flight, (2) one ground update in the vertical components only at the first practice separation minus 15 minutes, (3) one ground update in all components at the first practice separation minus 5 minutes, (4) updates 2 and 3 applied successively, (5) Case 4 plus an update in all components at the second separation attempt minus 3 minutes, and (6) one ground update at first separation attempt minus 5 minutes and a second update at second separation minus two minutes. The mission control simulation program, GROPER, was run using as radar input a tape containing radar derived state vectors for the trajectory.

Killen, R.↗

Design and development of a structural mode control system

A program was conducted to compile and document some of the existing information about the conceptual design, development, and tests of the B-1 structural mode control system (SMCS) and its impact on ride quality. This report covers the following topics: (1) Rationale of selection of SMCS to meet ride quality criteria versus basic aircraft stiffening. (2) Key considerations in designing an SMCS, including vane geometry, rate and deflection requirements, power required, compensation network design, and fail-safe requirements. (3) Summary of key results of SMCS vane wind tunnel tests. (4) SMCS performance. (5) SMCS design details, including materials, bearings, and actuators. (6) Results of qualification testing of SMCS on the "Iron Bird" flight control simulator, and lab qualification testing of the actuators. (7) Impact of SMCS vanes on engine inlet characteristics from wind tunnel tests.

Source record↗

Description of a computer simulation of an orbital SAR system

A computer simulation of an orbital SAR system has been developed in order to predict SAR performance for a wide variety of system and environmental parameters. The objectives of the simulation are: (1) to assess the effect of various antenna patterns on the SAR image, (2) to assess the effect of various SAR parameters on the system's ability to detect small differences in the radar cross section of adjacent homogeneous areas, and (3) to assess the effect of mapping geometry on SAR image quality. The simulation is implemented as seven programs: (1) simulation control, (2) terrain model, (3) slant range computation, (4) production of IPQ video, (5) motion compensation, (6) Doppler processor, and (7) postprocessor and display.

Crow, G. L.↗

System performance analyzer

The System Performance Analyzer (SPA) designed to provide accurate real time information about the operation of complex systems and developed for use on the Airborne Data Analysis/Monitor System (ADAMS), a ROLM 1666 based system is described. The system uses an external processor to operate an intelligent, simulated control panel. Also provided are functions to trace operations, determine frequency of use of memory areas, and time or count user tasks in a multitask environment. This augments the information available from the standard debugger and control panel, and reduces the time and effort needed by ROLM 1666 users in optimizing their system, as well as providing documentation of the effect of any changes. The operation and state of the system are evaluated.

Helbig, H. R.↗

Investigation of air transportation technology at MIT

A summary of the research done by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is addressed including Loran-C for guidance in flying approaches, an air traffic control simulator for the Manned Vehicle Simulation Research Facility, and an air traffic collision model theory.

Simpson, R. W.↗

Dynamics of flexible bodies in tree topology - A computer oriented approach

An approach suited for automatic generation of the equations of motion for large mechanical systems (i.e., large space structures, mechanisms, robots, etc.) is presented. The system topology is restricted to a tree configuration. The tree is defined as an arbitrary set of rigid and flexible bodies connected by hinges characterizing relative translations and rotations of two adjoining bodies. The equations of motion are derived via Kane's method. The resulting equation set is of minimum dimension. Dynamical equations are imbedded in a computer program called TREETOPS. Extensive control simulation capability is built in the TREETOPS program. The simulation is driven by an interactive set-up program resulting in an easy to use analysis tool.

Singh, R. P.↗