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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Human Systems Risk Network - A Ranking Analysis of Risks

INTRODUCTION The Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB) is responsible for understanding, managing, and mitigating the risks associated with spaceflight. For a particular mission, the HSRB assigns each human system risk a rating on a 5x5 grid assessing its likelihood and consequence, which is ultimately used to compare and rank the risks. The HSRB approaches risk management by primarily establishing the context of each human system risk individually with the understanding that mitigating one risk might affect the likelihood, consequence, and mitigation approaches of another. To support this effort the HSRB, subject matter experts, and risk custodian teams created directed acyclic graphs (DAG), often called a causal graph, for the twenty-nine risks. In this presentation, we propose a new ranking algorithm for the risks which includes the downstream influence of each risk according to the information in the DAGs and provide an application of graph theoretic tools. METHODS In 2014, Mindock and Klaus proposed a taxonomy for human system risk influences which we have adopted to categorize the nodes in each DAG. Analyzing the nodes that correspond to the risks in this taxonomy allows us to analyze and understand how each risk influences the others. We construct an auxiliary network, which we call the Primary Risk Network (PRN), where the nodes are the twenty-nine space flight risks and, a directed edge connects Risk A to Risk B if Risk A has some influence on the likelihood or consequence of Risk B as described in the DAGS. We perform a variety of graph theoretic ranking methods on the nodes (or risks) in the PRN, including Katz centrality. RESULTS We rank the nodes in the PRN using the Katz centrality score. The ten risks with the highest score are pictured in Figure 1, colored (light to dark) according to their score. We analyze other centrality measures like betweenness centrality, eigenvector centrality, and the Estrada index, and provide the meaning of the corresponding rankings in terms of the risks. Future work includes analyzing the other categories in the taxonomy defined by Mindock and Klaus [1]. For example, we are interested in analyzing the nodes that are labeled as countermeasures or capabilities and perform similar analysis to measure their effect on certain medical conditions.

dag↗
NASA NTRS2023

Real Options Analysis for Valuation of Climate Adaptation Pathways With Application to Transit Infrastructure

Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of coastal flood events, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. While regional climate adaptation investments can provide substantive flood protection, existing plans often neglect uncertainty in future climate conditions and adaptation performance, consequently neglecting the option value of flexibly implementing proposed projects. Addressing this gap, we develop and employ a generalizable real options analysis (ROA) valuation framework that considers how uncertainty in adaptation project costs, SLR, flood severity, and flood losses inform the full range of adaptation performance outcomes. We further propose and apply a novel, computationally efficient flood loss sampling algorithm to estimate the consequences of randomly arriving coastal flood events. We apply this ROA framework to assess the option value of flexibly timing adaptation investments over time, investigating an adaptation pathway proposed by the City of Boston from the perspective of the regional transit system manager. Our results suggest that flexible implementation can provide significant option value in the near-to mid-term(>30 years), with highest option values under low-probability, high consequence scenarios. Our results also suggest adaptation pathway performance in the latter half of the 21stcenturyis most sensitive to uncertainty in sea level rise, flood loss estimates, and flood frequency, underscoring the importance of uncertainty quantification in the long-term valuation of adaptation investments.

Michael V. Martello↗
NASA NTRS1963

Introduction to Nuclear Propulsion: Lecture 15 - Nuclear Test Operations

The test operation of nuclear power plants, specifically nuclear rockets, bears some interesting similarities to the operation of chemical rocket tests as well as, of course, many differences. A significant feature common to both nuclear and chemical rocket tests is that all the fuel for the entire operation is loaded at the start of the test. As a direct consequence of this fact, the operation of nuclear power plants must be surrounded with adequate safety precautions, as is indeed the case in the operation of chemical rockets, A second direct consequence is that in both types of testing a very thorough and complete checkout is made before starting the test.

TEST METHOD↗
NASA NTRS1965

Space vacuum investigations

Inaccessible-Non Repairable- Costly: The meaning of these words is absolute in the event of a complete failure of an orbiting spacecraft. Adequate design, or rather, minimizing chance of failure, challenges all scientists and engineers. Where experience has not been developed, the risk involved in a new application must be weighed against the consequence of a design failure. In space work, the spectrum of consequence is extremely wide. It ranges from loss of scientific data on one hand, to loss of life on the other.. There is little question that knowledge of the space environment and its effects must be determined to produce reliable spacecraft. Tests to prove the design must be performed with equipment capable of simulating the effects of the environment in which the design is to operate. This does not necessarily mean that the natural environment must be duplicated. The degree of environmental simulation that should be achieved depends primarily upon the significance of the physical effects it causes. The purpose of space vacuum simulation in an environmental test program should be accurately conceived and the testing phased to obtain maximum information from the limited samples available for test. This discussion is confined to some of the factors involved in simulating the effects of space vacuum environment. This survey is by no means complete, but will touch on some of the highlights in this field: 1. A description of the environment 2. The level of simulation necessary to evaluate its effects 3. Test equipment capability 4. Experience in test 5. Experience in orbit 6. Observations & future emphasis

VACUUM EFFECT↗
NASA NTRS1956

Effect of Operating Conditions and Design on Afterburner Performance

Afterburners for turbojet engines have, within the past decade, found increasing application in service aircraft. Practically all engines manufactured today are equipped with some form of afterburner, and its use has increased from what was originally a short-period thrust-augmentation application to an essential feature of the turbojet propulsion system for flight at supersonic speeds. The design of these afterburners has been based on extensive research and development effort in expanded laboratory facilities by both the NACA and the American engine industry. Most of the work of the engine industry, however, has either not been published or is not generally available owing to its proprietary nature. Consequently, the main bulk of research information available for summary and discussion is of NACA origin. However, because industrial afterburner development has closely followed NACA research, the omission is more one of technical detail than method or concept. One principal difficulty encountered in summarizing the work in this field is that sufficient knowledge does not yet exist to rationally or directly integrate the available background of basic combustion principles into combustor design. A further difficulty is that most of the experimental investigations that have been conducted were directed chiefly toward the development of specific afterburners for various engines rather than to the accumulation of systematic data. This work has, nonetheless, provided not only substantial improvements in the performance of afterburners but also a large fund of experimental data and an extensive background of experience in the field. Consequently, it is the purpose of the present chapter to summarize the many, and frequently unrelated, experimental investigations that have been conducted rather than to formulate a set of design rules. In the treatment of this material an effort has been made, however, to convey to the reader the "know how" acquired by research engineers in the course of afterburner studies.

Fleming, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Dayside auroral-oval plasma density and conductivity enhancements due to magnetosheath electron precipitation.

Demonstration that magnetosheath electrons precipitating into the dayside auroral oval are a significant source of ionization and consequently will lead to electrical conductivity enhancements within the oval. By assuming that the electrons are maintained isotropic by strong pitch-angle diffusion as they precipitate into the ionosphere, the precipitation heat flux can be simply related to solar-wind energy density and consequently to the level of magnetic activity. For quiet solar-wind conditions, the heat fluxes of 1 to 10 ergs/sq cm/sec expected and observed lead to height-integrated Pedersen conductivity enhancements of 4 to 15 mhos. During magnetic storms the conductivity enhancements could increase by a factor of 3 to 5. Since the precipitating electrons are soft, the Hall conductivity enhancements are smaller than the Pedersen conductivity enhancements. For typical electric fields the computed conductivity enhancements lead to field-aligned currents bounding the enhancements in order-of-magnitude agreement with observation. The topside ionosphere should also have a density enhancement over the auroral oval on the dayside.

Kennel, C. F.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Can the ionosphere regulate magnetospheric convection?

Following a southward shift of the interplanetary magnetic field, which implies enhanced reconnection at the nose of the magnetosphere, the magnetopause shrinks from its Chapman-Ferraro equilibrium position. If the convective return of magnetic flux to the magnetopause equalled the reconnection rate, the magnetopause would not shrink. Consequently, there is a delay in the development of magnetospheric convection following the onset of reconnection, which is ascribed to line tying by the polar cusp ionosphere. A simple model relates the dayside magnetopause displacement to the currents feeding the polar cap ionosphere, from which the ionospheric electric field, and consequently, the flux return rate, may be estimated as a function of magnetopause displacement. Flux conservation arguments then permit an estimate of the time scale on which convection increases, which is not inconsistent with that of the substorm growth phase.

Coroniti, F. V.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The geographical distribution of difference 100-keV electrons above the earth's atmosphere

Modern soft X-ray astronomical observations are made with large-area proportional counters that have very thin plastic windows. The counters are consequently very sensitive to low energy electrons. An electron with only a few keV of energy can penetrate a typical window, and a flux of approximately 100 electrons per square centimeter sec-ster can double the background counting rate during a typical observation. These electrons produce an undersiable effect which, is impossible to distinguish from X ray data. Consequently, an electron-free region is needed for accurate astronomical observations. Geographical regions of weak electron flux from low altitude satellite data are derived. These regions can be compared with the locations of rocket launching sites. The best sites should be those farthest from electron regions.

Seward, F. D.↗
NASA NTRS1973

U.S. view of human problems to be addressed for long duration space flights

The Russian and American space programs have consisted of several thousands of hours of exposure of man to the space environment. In spite of numerous biological phenomena of adaptation observed, the space travellers have displayed, after their return, no enduring pathological effect. Although the usable data remain too limited to reflect fully the effects of space flight, it is possible to sketch the biological responses in the absence of gravity and to define the work bases for the future. Beyond its basic physiological effects, weightlessness has operational consequences in the daily life of the astronauts. These consequences will be still more evident during missions of long duration. The conclusions drawn in flight as well as on the ground are reviewed, and future requirements concerning prolonged flights are outlined. The gaps in actual knowledge are discussed and solutions are suggested. The problems of habitability are considered, particularly those which remain at present without satisfactory solutions: psychological responses to a confined life, cleaning, hygiene, and used material.

Berry, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The nature of microturbulence in the solar photosphere

It is shown that the increase in apparent Doppler width as the limb is approached is a natural consequence of the fact that the solar atmosphere is not homogeneous. The work on the sodium D line cores which assumes the solar atmosphere to be homogeneous is reviewed. It appears that the cores of the sodium D lines have been distorted by fluctuations in the solar atmosphere in a systematic manner. It is concluded that the increase in apparent Doppler width observed in the sodium D line is a natural consequence of the temperature fluctuations in the solar atmosphere. The presence of a velocity field is not required to produce this effect.

Wilson, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Are stellar surface heavy-element abundances systematically enhanced

Stellar surface heavy-element abundances may be substantially higher than interior abundances if there is appreciable accretion of chemically fractionated matter after Hayashi-phase convection has terminated. The plausibility of appreciable accretion is discussed, and some possible observational consequences of enhanced surface heavy-element abundances are investigated. These consequences include a reduced solar neutrino flux, systematic variations in surface abundance along the main sequence and along the giant branch, and relatively low heavy-element abundances among planetary nebulas and white dwarfs and in the interstellar medium. There is marginal observational evidence in support of the hypothesis of enhanced stellar surface heavy-element abundances.

Joss, P. C.↗
NASA NTRS1974

NO/+/ and O/+/ in the high latitude F-region

From an analysis of ionic reactions, it is deduced that NO(+) should be an important constituent of the high-latitude F-region. Owing to the rapid increase of the reaction O(+) + N2 yields NO(+) + N with ion velocity and temperature, high latitude electric fields and consequent E x B drifts act to deplete O(+) in favor of NO(+). As a consequence of this and the reduced rate of NO(+) dissociative recombination arising from high electron temperatures, it seems that NO(+) can, at times, replace O(+) as the major F2-region ion in the vicinity of the auroral ovals. The same processes should also be effective in creating nighttime electron density troughs composed primarily of NO(+) in regions equatorward of the auroral ovals where large electric fields are often present.

Banks, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Does Mercury have a molten core

The question of whether or not Mercury could contain a molten metallic core is investigated by studying the possible thermal evolution of a metallic core in that planet. The calculations involve the solution of the equation of heat conduction for a spherically symmetric body with internal heat sources, modifications to take account of the latent heat of fusion as well as the redistribution of radioactive heat sources as a consequence of melting, the terrestrial Fe/U ratio, and a Th/U ratio of 3.7. The temperature profile predicted by the calculations for a period of 4.6 billion years indicates that the inner 1400 km of the core would now be solid while the outer 500 km would be molten. It is emphasized that this result is a direct consequence of a discontinuity in melting temperatures at the core-mantle boundary and that although a dynamo is possible, it would have to be driven mechanically rather than by thermal convection.

Fricker, P. E.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Some aspects of core formation in Mercury

Some questions dealing with the nature and history of a large metallic core within Mercury are considered. These include the existence of a core, its size, whether it is fluid or solid, the timescale for core formation, the geological consequences of core formation, and whether such consequences are consistent with the surface geology. Several indirect lines of evidence are discussed which suggest the presence of a large iron-rich core. A core-formation model is examined in which core infall is accompanied by an increase of 17 km in planetary radius, an increase of 700 K in mean internal temperature, and substantial melting of the mantle. It is argued that if the core differentiated from an originally homogeneous planet, that event must have predated the oldest geological units comprising most of the planetary surface. A convective dynamo model for the source of Mercury's magnetic field is shown to conflict with cosmochemical models that do not predict a substantial radiogenic heat source in the core.

Solomon, S. C.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A plan for application system verification tests: The value of improved meteorological information, volume 1

The framework within which the Applications Systems Verification Tests (ASVTs) are performed and the economic consequences of improved meteorological information demonstrated is described. This framework considers the impact of improved information on decision processes, the data needs to demonstrate the economic impact of the improved information, the data availability, the methodology for determining and analyzing the collected data and demonstrating the economic impact of the improved information, and the possible methods of data collection. Three ASVTs are considered and program outlines and plans are developed for performing experiments to demonstrate the economic consequences of improved meteorological information. The ASVTs are concerned with the citrus crop in Florida, the cotton crop in Mississippi and a group of diverse crops in Oregon. The program outlines and plans include schedules, manpower estimates and funding requirements.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1976

Operational experience with a powered-lift STOL aircraft

The experience gained in over four years of STOL operations with the augmentor wing research aircraft and the background of operation of other STOL powered-lift aircraft indicate that the use and percent of lift achieved by powered lift have significant effects on the operational characteristics of STOL aircraft and, therefore, on the performance that can be achieved. A brief description of the augmentor wing including the means by which it achieves its powered lift is presented. Specific problem areas relating to the control of longitudinal flight path are discussed as well as the consequences these might have on the design and operation of this class of aircraft. Particular emphasis is given to the approach and landing phase of flight where the consequences of the powered lift are most pronounced, and the resultant characteristics most different from those of conventional aircraft.

Innis, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Robot learning and error correction

A model of robot learning is described that associates previously unknown perceptions with the sensed known consequences of robot actions. For these actions, both the categories of outcomes and the corresponding sensory patterns are incorporated in a knowledge base by the system designer. Thus the robot is able to predict the outcome of an action and compare the expectation with the experience. New knowledge about what to expect in the world may then be incorporated by the robot in a pre-existing structure whether it detects accordance or discrepancy between a predicted consequence and experience. Errors committed during plan execution are detected by the same type of comparison process and learning may be applied to avoiding the errors.

Friedman, L.↗
NASA NTRS1977

A forecast of broadcast satellite communications

This paper presents forecasts of likely changes in broadcast satellite technology, the technology of ground terminals, and the technology of terrestrial communications competitive with satellites. The impacts of these changes in technology are then assessed, using a cross-impact model of U.S. domestic telecommunications, to determine the consequences of various possible changes in communications satellite technology. These consequences are discussed in terms of various possible services, for households, businesses, and specialized customers, which might become economically viable as a result of improvements in satellite technology.

Martino, J. P.↗