Results for “confidence measures” — Page 23

DOE OSTI2022

Search for the decay $h_c$ → $π^0J/ψ$

A search for the decay $h_c$ → $π^0J/ψ$ is performed using a sample of hc produced in the reaction $e^+e^-$ → $π^+π^-h_c$. The data samples were collected with the BESIII detector at center-of-mass energies between 4.189 and 4.437 GeV, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 11 fb -1 . No significant signal is observed. Upper limits on the branching ratio $\mathcal{B}$($h_c$ →$π^oJ/ψ$)/$\mathcal{B}$($h_c$ →$γη_c$ →$γK^+K_-π^o$) and on the branching fraction $\mathcal{B}$($h_c$ →$π^oJ/ψ$) are determined to be 7.5 x 10 -2 and 4.7 x 10 -4 at 90% confidence level, respectively. The latter is derived from the former using the measured branching fraction of the normalization channel. This is the first determination of the upper limit of the decay $h_c$ → $π^0J/ψ$

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Deep Learning Approach to Automate the Interpretation of Multi-phase Diffraction Spectra

Autonomous synthesis and characterization of inorganic materials requires the automatic and accurate analysis of X-ray diffraction spectra. For this task, we designed a probabilistic deep learning algorithm to identify complex multi-phase mixtures. At the core of this algorithm lies an ensemble convolutional neural network trained on simulated diffraction spectra, which are systematically augmented with physics-informed perturbations to account for artifacts that can arise during experimental sample preparation and synthesis. In this work, larger perturbations associated with off-stoichiometry are also captured by supplementing the training set with hypothetical solid solutions. Spectra containing mixtures of materials are analyzed with a newly developed branching algorithm that utilizes the probabilistic nature of the neural network to explore suspected mixtures and identify the set of phases that maximize confidence in the prediction. Our model is benchmarked on simulated and experimentally measured diffraction spectra, showing exceptional performance with accuracies exceeding those given by previously reported methods based on profile matching and deep learning. We envision that the algorithm presented here may be integrated in experimental workflows to facilitate the high-throughput and autonomous discovery of inorganic materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Constraining scale dependent growth with redshift surveys

Ongoing and future redshift surveys have the capability to measure the growth rate of large scale structure at the percent level over a broad range of redshifts, tightly constraining cosmological parameters. Beyond general relativity, however, the growth rate in the linear density perturbation regime can be not only redshift dependent but scale dependent, revealing important clues to modified gravity. We demonstrate that a fully model independent approach of binning the gravitational strength G eff (k,z) matches scalar-tensor results for the growth rate fσ 8 (k,z) to 0.02%–0.27% rms accuracy. For data of the quality of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) we find the bin values can be constrained to 1.4%–28%. We also explore the general scalar-tensor form, constraining the amplitude and past and future scalaron mass/shape parameters. Perhaps most interesting is the strong complementarity of low redshift peculiar velocity data with DESI-like redshift space distortion measurements, enabling improvements up to a factor 6–7 on 2D joint confidence contour areas. Finally, we quantify some issues with gravity parametrizations that do not include all the key physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

TRUST-EABM End-of-Year Report: Release FY20

The Delivery Environments (DE) program work package Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) is designed to quantify and reduce the uncertainty associated with experimental testing and numerical simulation of large engineering assemblies to support the efficient and responsive development of future systems. Because engineering assemblies contain a large number of uncertainty sources, well-characterized testbeds must be designed to isolate individual uncertainty sources. Once quantified, uncertainty sources can be compared to direct research and development funding towards the largest sources driving behavior of interest. Quantified uncertainty may also be propagated through engineering simulations to determine quantitative confidence in simulation predictions and for comparison against uncertainty in the experimental measurements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1977

Economics of modern long-haul cargo airships

The economic characteristics and historical trends of long-haul air transportation are discussed. Various published estimates of modern airship direct operating costs are presented and comparatively analyzed. The large discrepancies in these estimates are in large measure explained, allowing airship direct operating costs to be estimated with some confidence. Indirect costs are also briefly discussed. Projected airship operating costs are compared with actual costs of competing modes such as airplanes, trucks, rail, and pipelines, and it is concluded that airships cannot economically compete with other long-haul modes. Thus attention is drawn to short-haul applications of the airship; and because short-haul missions lead to vehicle requirements that are considerably different from those for long-haul missions, it is concluded that the civil airship of the future is likely to bear little resemblance to those of the past.

Ardema, M. D.↗

NASA NTRS1984

LANDSAT-4 MSS interband registration

Interband registration on raw LANDSAT-4 MSS data was measured in the four MSS bands of the Mistassini, Quebec scene (path-row 16-24, June 21, 1983). Statistical comparison between line-pixel locations of uniformly distributed ground control points in the four different bands permitted quantitative measures of the offset over the entire scene. The statistical distribution of the offset measures permitted evaluation of the standard error on the mean values, giving confidence on their precision. Results obtained using a manual ground control point done on a digital image correction system and those obtained using digital band-to-band correlation adapted from a digital stereographic correlation algorithm are tabulated. The pixel misrepresentation values obtained are compared with published NASA figures.

Grieve, G.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Dark streaks on talus slopes, Mars

High-resolution pictures of talus slopes on Mars show small, dark streaks that characteristically widen downward. These streaks are different from the thin and even streaks of various albedos that stream from cliffs on talus slopes, but gradations between the two streak types occur and not all streaks can be classified with confidence. In order to study the nature and origin of the small, widening, dark streaks, all Viking pictures with a resolution of less than 100 m/pixel were surveyed. To date several hundred streaks were located, but only few are of high enough resolution to be confidently identified as widening downwards. The approximate dimensions of the streaks were measured and their shapes, numbers, position, and spacing on slopes were noted. They were plotted on a topographic map, and their relation to topography, geologic units, and regions of distinct thermal inertia and albedo were studied. Also noted was the season at which images containing streaks were acquired and the direction of illumination. Albedo measurements are in progress. Several streaks can be seen stereoscopically, but none are observed on color images. The observation of small dark streaks on talus slopes on Mars is compatible with an interpretation of their origin as eruptions of small masses of wet debris in places where steep walls intersect aquifers or where seasonal equatorial warming permits the local melting of ground ice.

Ferguson, H. M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Linear and nonlinear interpretation of CV-580 lightning data

Numerical models developed for the study of lightning strike data acquired by in-flight aircraft are applied to the data measured on the CV-580. The basic technique used is the three dimensional time domain finite difference solution of Maxwell's equations. Both linear and nonlinear models are used in the analysis. In the linear model, the lightning channel and the aircraft are assumed to form a linear time invariant system. A transfer function technique can then be used to study the response of the aircraft to a given lightning strike current. Conversely, the lightning current can be inferred from the measured response. In the nonlinear model, the conductivity of air in the vicinity of the aircraft is calculated and incorporated into the solution of the Maxwell's equations. The nonlinear model thus simulates corona formation and air breakdown. Results obtained from the models are in reasonable agreement with the measured data. This study provides another validation of the models and increases confidence that the models may be used to predict aircraft response to any general lightning strike.

Ng, Poh H.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700-1992

From satellite observations the solar total irradiance is known to vary. Sunspot blocking, facular emission, and network emission are three identified causes for the variations. In this paper we examine several different solar indices measured over the past century that are potential proxy measures for the Sun's irradiance. These indices are (1) the equatorial solar rotation rate, (2) the sunspot structure, the decay rate of individual sunspots, and the number of sunspots without umbrae, and (3) the length and decay rate of the sunspot cycle. Each index can be used to develop a model for the Sun's total irradiance as seen at the Earth. Three solar indices allow the irradiance to be modeled back to the mid-1700s. The indices are (1) the length of the solar cycle, (2) the normalized decay rate of the solar cycle, and (3) the mean level of solar activity. All the indices are well correlated, and one possible explanation for their nearly simultaneous variations is changes in the Sun's convective energy transport. Although changes in the Sun's convective energy transport are outside the realm of normal stellar structure theory (e.g., mixing length theory), one can imagine variations arising from even the simplest view of sunspots as vertical tubes of magnetic flux, which would serve as rigid pillas affecting the energy flow patterns by ensuring larger-scale eddies. A composite solar irradiance model, based upon these proxies, is compared to the northern hemisphere temperature depatures for 1700-1992. Approximately 71% of the decadal variance in the last century can be modeled with these solar indices, although this analysis does not include anthropogenic or other variations which would affect the results. Over the entire three centuries, approx. 50% of the variance is modeled. Both this analysis and previous similar analyses have correlations of model solar irradiances and measured Earth surface temperatures that are significant at better than the 95% confidence level. To understand our present climate variations, we must place the anthropogenic variations in the context of natural variability from solar, volcanic, oceanic, and other sources.

Hoyt, Douglas V.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The CCD/Transit Instrument (CTI) data-analysis system

The automated software system for archiving, analyzing, and interrogating data from the CCD/Transit Instrument (CTI) is described. The CTI collects up to 450 Mbytes of image-data each clear night in the form of a narrow strip of sky observed in two colors. The large data-volumes and the scientific aims of the project make it imperative that the data are analyzed within the 24-hour period following the observations. To this end a fully automatic and self evaluating software system has been developed. The data are collected from the telescope in real-time and then transported to Tucson for analysis. Verification is performed by visual inspection of random subsets of the data and obvious cosmic rays are detected and removed before permanent archival is made to the optical disc. The analysis phase is performed by a pair of linked algorithms, one operating on the absolute pixel-values and the other on the spatial derivative of the data. In this way both isolated and merged images are reliably detected in a single pass. In order to isolate the latter algorithm from the effects of noise spikes a 3x3 Hanning filter is applied to the raw data before the analysis is run. The algorithms reduce the input pixel-data to a database of measured parameters for each image which has been found. A contrast filter is applied in order to assign a detection-probability to each image and then x-y calibration and intensity calibration are performed using known reference stars in the strip. These are added to as necessary by secondary standards boot-strapped from the CTI data itself. The final stages involve merging the new data into the CTI Master-list and History-list and the automatic comparison of each new detection with a set of pre-defined templates in parameter-space to find interesting objects such as supernovae, quasars and variable stars. Each stage of the processing from verification to interesting image selection is performed under a data-logging system which both controls the pipe-lining of data through the system and records key performance monitor parameters which are built into the software. Furthermore, the data from each stage are stored in databases to facilitate evaluation, and all stages offer the facility to enter keyword-indexed free-format text into the data-logging system. In this way a large measure of certification is built into the system to provide the necessary confidence in the end results.

Cawson, M. G. M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Gravitational Physics Research

Gravitational physics research at ISPAE is connected with NASA's Relativity Mission (Gravity Probe B (GP-B)) which will perform a test of Einstein's General Relativity Theory. GP-B will measure the geodetic and motional effect predicted by General Relativity Theory with extremely stable and sensitive gyroscopes in an earth orbiting satellite. Both effects cause a very small precession of the gyroscope spin axis. The goal of the GP-B experiment is the measurement of the gyroscope precession with very high precision. GP-B is being developed by a team at Stanford University and is scheduled for launch in the year 2001. The related UAH research is a collaboration with Stanford University and MSFC. This research is focussed primarily on the error analysis and data reduction methods of the experiment but includes other topics concerned with experiment systems and their performance affecting the science measurements. The hydrogen maser is the most accurate and stable clock available. It will be used in future gravitational physics missions to measure relativistic effects such as the second order Doppler effect. The HMC experiment, currently under development at the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO), will test the performance and capability of the hydrogen maser clock for gravitational physics measurements. UAH in collaboration with the SAO science team will study methods to evaluate the behavior and performance of the HMC. The GP-B data analysis developed by the Stanford group involves complicated mathematical operations. This situation led to the idea to investigate alternate and possibly simpler mathematical procedures to extract the GP-B measurements form the data stream. Comparison of different methods would increase the confidence in the selected scheme.

Wu, S. T.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Comparison of Model Calculation and Measurement of Absorbed Dose for Proton Irradiation

With the increase in the amount of time spent EVA that is necessary to complete the construction and subsequent maintenance of ISS, it will become increasingly important for ground support personnel to accurately characterize the radiation exposures incurred by EVA crewmembers. Since exposure measurements cannot be taken within the organs of interest, it is necessary to estimate these exposures by calculation. To validate the methods and tools used to develop these estimates, it is necessary to model experiments performed in a controlled environment. This work is such an effort. A human phantom was outfitted with detector equipment and then placed in American EMU and Orlan-M EVA space suits. The suited phantom was irradiated at the LLUPTF with proton beams of known energies. Absorbed dose measurements were made by the spaceflight operational dosimetrist from JSC at multiple sites in the skin, eye, brain, stomach, and small intestine locations in the phantom. These exposures are then modeled using the BRYNTRN radiation transport code developed at the NASA Langley Research Center, and the CAM (computerized anatomical male) human geometry model of Billings and Yucker. Comparisons of absorbed dose calculations with measurements show excellent agreement. This suggests that there is reason to be confident in the ability of both the transport code and the human body model to estimate proton exposure in ground-based laboratory experiments.

Zapp, N.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Quantum Band Model of the nu3 Fundamental of Methanol (CH3OH) and Its Application to Fluorcescence Spectra of Comets

Methanol (CH3OH) radiates efficiently at infrared wavelengths, dominating the C-H stretching region in comets, yet inadequate quantum-mechanical models have imposed limits on the practical use of its emission spectra. Accordingly, we constructed a new line-by-line model for the 3 fundamental band of methanol at 2844 / cm (3.52 micron) and applied it to interpret cometary fluorescence spectra. The new model permits accurate synthesis of line-by-line spectra for a wide range of rotational temperatures, ranging from 10 K to more than 400 K.We validated the model by comparing simulations of CH3OH fluorescent emission with measured spectra of three comets (C/2001 A2 LINEAR, C/2004 Q2 Machholz and 8P/Tuttle) acquired with high-resolution infrared spectrometers at high-altitude sites. The new model accurately describes the complex emission spectrum of the nu3 band, providing distinct rotational temperatures and production rates at greatly improved confidence levels compared with results derived from earlier fluorescence models. The new model reconciles production rates measured at infrared and radio wavelengths in C/2001 A2 (LINEAR). Methanol can now be quantified with unprecedented precision and accuracy in astrophysical sources through high-dispersion spectroscopy at infrared wavelengths

Villanueva, Geronimo L.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Airborne Hyperspectral Sensing of Monitoring Harmful Algal Blooms in the Great Lakes Region: System Calibration and Validation

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) in Lake Erie have been prominent in recent years. The bloom in 2014 reached a severe level causing the State of Ohio to declare a state of emergency. At that time NASA Glenn Research Center was requested by stakeholders to help monitor the blooms in Lake Erie. Glenn conducted flights twice a week in August and September and assembled and distributed the HAB information to the shoreline water resource managers using its hyperspectral imaging sensor (in development since 2006), the S􀂱3 Viking aircraft, and funding resources from the NASA Headquarters Earth Science Division. Since then, the State of Ohio, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have elevated their funding and activities for observing, monitoring, and addressing the root cause of HABs. Also, the communities and stakeholders have persistently requested NASA Glenn􀂶s participation in HAB observation. Abundant field campaigns and sample analyses have been funded by Ohio and NOAA, which provided a great opportunity for NASA to advance science and airborne hyperspectral remote sensing economically. Capitalizing on this opportunity to advance the science of algal blooms and remote sensing, NASA Glenn conducted the Airborne Hyperspectral Observation of harmful algal blooms campaign in 2015 that was, in many respects, twice as large as the 2014 campaign. Focusing mostly on Lake Erie, but also including other small inland lakes and the Ohio River, the campaign was conducted in partnership with a large number of partners specializing in marine science and remote sensing. Airborne hyperspectral observation of HABs holds promise to distinguish potential HABs from nuisance blooms, determine their concentrations, and delineate their movement in an augmented spatial and temporal resolution and under clouds􀂲all of which are excellent complements to satellite observations. Working with collaborators at several Ohio and Michigan institutions as well as one in South Dakota and one in Alabama, this effort was able to provide next-day georeferenced estimates of cyanobacteria and scum concentrations. Very prompt processing and analysis of the hyperspectral imagery is necessary for the information to be acted upon. For example, a next-day report of an overflight over the Ohio River indicated that a bloom could be present as far downstream as the Cincinnati intake, but the Ohio EPA had not received visual reports of a bloom that far downstream. Water samples were obtained at the Cincinnati water intake, based on the flight data, and detected microcystins in the source water. The flight data helped State and municipal authorities realize the potential extent of that bloom, and triggered response sampling, before the visual river-wide scums started forming. The present document describes the process that was utilized to take raw remote sensing data and create information products; this includes system calibration and validation, efforts to correct atmospheric effects, and algorithms that produce the data products. Furthermore, successful research into improved algorithms for expanding the capability to delineate in water constituents is included. Finally, comparisons that show expected relationships between ground-based measurements and hyperspectral imager version 2 (HSI2) data results are presented, giving confidence in the remote sensing products.

Hyperspectral Imaging↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Random Micron-Sized Roughness on Swept-Wing Transition

This study examines the effect of random micron-sized distributed roughness on stationary crossflow instabilities. The roughness parameters are varied by creating nanoparticle coatings of various formulations and applying them to inserts that cover approximately the first 14% of the model. In addition to the baseline configuration (no added roughness, root-mean-square (RMS) ≈ 0.42 𝜇m), panels with RMS roughness values of 4.8 and 8.6 𝜇m were tested, with correlation lengths of 1029 and 385 𝜇m, respectively. Despite the significant roughness levels tested, the transition location was found to be only mildly impacted by the additional roughness, and the roughness panel with lower RMS amplitude caused a larger upstream movement of transition, on average. However, the stationary crossflow amplitudes and wavelength content were found to vary substantially depending on the roughness input. In particular, the panel with higher RMS roughness amplitude resulted in significantly larger amplitudes in the 7.5-9 mm wavelength range at the farthest upstream measurement station, while the lower roughness panel resulted in mildly larger amplitudes at 10 mm and wavelengths larger than 15 mm. Nonlinear Parabolized Stability Equations (PSE) computations were performed to attempt to estimate the initial amplitudes of the stationary crossflow instabilities. Wavelength spectra were matched at the most upstream measurement location, but large discrepancies exist between the predicted and measured growth behavior farther downstream, thus, more work is required to improve confidence in initial amplitude estimates.

boundary-layer transition↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Random Micron-Sized Roughness on Swept-Wing Transition

This study examines the effect of random micron-sized distributed roughness on stationary crossflow instabilities. The roughness parameters are varied by creating nanoparticle coatings of various formulations and applying them to inserts that cover approximately the first 14% of the model. In addition to the baseline configuration (no added roughness, root-mean-square (RMS) ≈ 0.42 𝜇m), panels with RMS roughness values of 4.8 and 8.6 𝜇m were tested, with correlation lengths of 1029 and 385 𝜇m, respectively. Despite the significant roughness levels tested, the transition location was found to be only mildly impacted by the additional roughness, and the roughness panel with lower RMS amplitude caused a larger upstream movement of transition, on average. However, the stationary crossflow amplitudes and wavelength content were found to vary substantially depending on the roughness input. In particular, the panel with higher RMS roughness amplitude resulted in significantly larger amplitudes in the 7.5-9 mm wavelength range at the farthest upstream measurement station, while the lower roughness panel resulted in mildly larger amplitudes at 10 mm and wavelengths larger than 15 mm. Nonlinear Parabolized Stability Equations (PSE) computations were performed to attempt to estimate the initial amplitudes of the stationary crossflow instabilities. Wavelength spectra were matched at the most upstream measurement location, but large discrepancies exist between the predicted and measured growth behavior farther downstream, thus, more work is required to improve confidence in initial amplitude estimates.

boundary-layer transition↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Random Micron-Sized Roughness on Swept-Wing Transition

This study examines the effect of random micron-sized distributed roughness on stationary crossflow instabilities. The roughness parameters are varied by creating nanoparticle coatings of various formulations and applying them to inserts that cover approximately the first 14% of the model. In addition to the baseline configuration (no added roughness, root-mean-square (RMS) ≈ 0.42 𝜇m), panels with RMS roughness values of 4.8 and 8.6 𝜇m were tested, with correlation lengths of 1029 and 385 𝜇m, respectively. Despite the significant roughness levels tested, the transition location was found to be only mildly impacted by the additional roughness, and the roughness panel with lower RMS amplitude caused a larger upstream movement of transition, on average. However, the stationary crossflow amplitudes and wavelength content were found to vary substantially depending on the roughness input. In particular, the panel with higher RMS roughness amplitude resulted in significantly larger amplitudes in the 7.5-9 mm wavelength range at the farthest upstream measurement station, while the lower roughness panel resulted in mildly larger amplitudes at 10 mm and wavelengths larger than 15 mm. Nonlinear Parabolized Stability Equations (PSE) computations were performed to attempt to estimate the initial amplitudes of the stationary crossflow instabilities. Wavelength spectra were matched at the most upstream measurement location, but large discrepancies exist between the predicted and measured growth behavior farther downstream, thus, more work is required to improve confidence in initial amplitude estimates.

boundary-layer transition↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PACE OCI Polarization Sensitivity Based on Pre-launch Testing

The Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) is a sensor on the upcoming Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission, scheduled for launch in early 2024. OCI is a grating spectrometer with hyperspectral coverage from the ultraviolet (about 310 nm) to near-infrared (about 900 nm), with additional filtered channels in the short-wave infrared (940 nm – 2260 nm). This instrument will provide ocean color science data to continue the data sets collected by heritage sensors MODIS, SeaWiFs, and VIIRS, but with increased spectral coverage and improved accuracy. In order to achieve the high levels of accuracy demanded by the science community, a rigorous ground test program was conducted to calibrate the instrument and ensure that the calibration can be transferred to on-orbit operations. Some calibration parameters can only be measured during pre-launch testing; one such parameter is the polarization sensitivity. Polarization testing measured the Mueller matrix components needed to determine the polarization sensitivity for all spectral bands for a series of telescope scan angles covering the expected on-orbit scan range. Results indicate that the sensitivity is below 0.6 % except at the shortest wavelengths (less than 340 nm) and was characterized to better than 0.1 % above 340 nm. This indicates that any polarized scenes measured on orbit can be corrected for with a high degree of confidence.

PACE↗