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DOE OSTI2025

Modeling and Simulation of Fuel Dispersal During the Loss-of-Coolant Accident

This document is the compilation of the milestone portion to a larger end of project NEUP report. The executive summary of the modeling portion is provided below: In the event of cladding rupture during a postulated LOCA in a pressurized water reactor, fuel particles, along with fission gases, can be expelled into the reactor core from the fractured fuel rod, a phenomenon referred to as fuel dispersal. The initial stage of fuel dispersal is strongly influenced by the high-pressure ejection of fuel fragments, the size and geometry of the ruptured cladding, and the depressurization history of the fuel rod during the postulated LOCA transient. Depending on the location of the burst orifice relative to the quench front, the dispersal event represents an intricate three-phase flow and heat transfer phenomenon, where high-temperature fuel particles carried by the fission gases interact with the coolant within the narrow subchannels of the fuel assemblies, inducing localized phase change. Given the unique multiphysics nature of this phenomena, the current study develops a dedicated computational framework to predict the mass distribution and cooling of dispersing fuel particles, facilitating post-accident assessment and management of the fuel assemblies. Considering the scale of nuclear reactor applications, a continuum three-fluid model is proposed for simulating the transport of solids within the reactor core. With high-temperature fuel fragments within the liquid media, nucleation sites inducing phase changes are dispersed within the flow domain. Coupled with the fact that the transient dispersal event occurs on different time scales than other three-phase flow applications, this study derives a time-averaged three-fluid flow model without losing generality. The assumptions regarding the continuum treatment of the solid phase and the modeling of fuel dispersal behavior are incorporated to simplify the governing equations and derive applicable closure relations. The computational validation of the model was conducted using adiabatic experimental results obtained from ongoing research at Oregon State University, focusing on characterizing fuel dispersal behavior during simulated LOCA conditions. Settlement characteristics of the solids, quantified by the probability distribution of equivalent particles, closely matched the probability density functions reported in experimental studies. The transport of fuel particles within a scaled 5 × 5 lattice of a pressurized-water reactor rod bundle geometry was modeled through a two-fluid Eulerian framework. The required boundary conditions were evaluated from the fuel performance code BISON in a postulated large-break LOCA scenario. The modeling framework considered solid fuel particles as granular matter, interacting with the gaseous dry steam phase and fission gases through the governing interfacial momentum exchange between the participating fluids. The simulation results provided the volume fraction of the solids obtained at the bottom surface of the enclosing tank geometry. Postulated LOCA leading to fuel dispersal phenomena involves the strong coupling between fuel thermomechanics, cladding deformation, thermal-hydraulics, and fuel particle transport. Incorporation of such a strong coupling in numerical simulation is performed by coupling the multiphysics solvers. In the case of fuel dispersal, a strong coupled simulation can be performed by coupling the BISON code for fuel performance, the TRACE code for system-level thermal hydraulics, and fuel particle transport in Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). For such intricate infrastructure, the MOOSE Framework eases the data transfer between codes. The recent version of MOOSE has incorporated the Navier-Stokes module for the fluid flow. An exploratory exercise was done to gain familiarity with finite volume capabilities in the MOOSE framework to incorporate the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model. New finite-volume and auxiliary kernels were introduced to assemble the SA transport equation, compute turbulent viscosity, and evaluate wall distance and diagnostic turbulence terms, fully integrated with existing Navier-Stokes modules. A turbulent lid-driven cavity at a Reynolds number of approximately 10,000 is used for verification. MOOSE shows the robust solver convergence and produces the turbulent features. But it underpredicts the velocity profile and turbulent quantities, emphasizing the need to develop improved SA near-wall treatments (e.g., low-Re corrections or wall functions) as a key direction for future work.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1994

Certification methodology applied to the NASA experimental radar system

The objective of the research is to apply selected FAA certification techniques to the NASA experimental wind shear radar system. Although there is no intent to certify the NASA system, the procedures developed may prove useful to manufacturers that plan to undergo the certification process. The certification methodology for forward-looking wind shear detection radars will require estimation of system performance in several FAA-specified microburst/clutter scenarios as well as the estimation of probabilities of missed and false hazard alerts under general operational conditions. Because of the near-impossibility of obtaining these results experimentally, analytical and simulation approaches must be used. Hazard detection algorithms were developed that derived predictive estimates of aircraft hazard from basic radar measurements of weather reflectivity and radial wind velocity. These algorithms were designed to prevent false alarms due to ground clutter while providing accurate predictions of hazard to the aircraft due to weather. A method of calculation of the probability of missed and false hazard alerts has been developed that takes into account the effect of the various algorithms used in the system and provides estimates of the probability of missed and false alerts per microburst encounter under weather conditions found at Denver, Kansas City, and Orlando. Simulation techniques have been developed that permit the proper merging of radar ground clutter data (obtained from flight tests) with simulated microburst data (obtained from microburst models) to estimate system performance using the microburst/clutter scenarios defined by the FAA.

Britt, Charles L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A probabilistic-phase field model for the fracture of brittle materials

Abstract We develop a computational method to determine the failure probability of brittle materials under general mechanical loading conditions. The method is a combination of two parts: (1) numerical simulations of materials with multiple cracks using phase field theory, where the complete fracture process is viewed as ‘damage percolation’ along critical paths or clusters of cracks, rather than the traditional weak-link failure mechanism of Weibull, and (2) an extension of the Batdorf statistical theory of fracture to finite domains, where it is implemented within the finite element framework. The results of phase-field simulations at the ‘percolation threshold’ are used as failure data in the Batdorf theory to determine the overall probability of failure. The input to this approach is the size distribution of cracks in a pristine material. An example is shown, where alumina samples that were previously tested by Abe and coworkers (Abeet al2003J. Am. Ceram. Soc.861019–21) in four-point loading are compared to the results of our numerical simulations. The approach developed here has the advantage of being extendable to more complex thermomechanical loading.

Materials Science↗

NASA NTRS1988

Reliability based analysis of contact problems

The Batdorf model is modified to include the reduction in shear due to the effect of compressive stresses on the crack face. This new formulation was used to obtain the probability of failure of ceramic components under contact stress conditions. The combined effect of the surface and volume flaws are included in the analysis. Due to the nature of the fracture of brittle materials under compressive loading, the component is modeled as a series system in order to establish bounds on the probability of failure.

Powers, Lynn M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Management of Risks Associated with Application of Novel Materials in Novel Operating Environments in Novel Reactor Designs

There is currently no widely agreed, detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. This paper discusses a framework for solving this problem that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev. 0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the ASME Code. The proposed framework is meant to support development of a licensing case by addressing certain technical challenges. The framework discussed here is compatible with the Licensing Modernization Project, but applying it in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice, if not the state of the art. The RIM approach calls for applicants to (a) allocate reliability targets to plant structures, systems, and components (SSCs), (b) show that they are able to relate the currently observed physical condition of each SSC in the program to its failure probability well enough to determine whether the target reliability allocations are being satisfied, allowing for uncertainty related to the novelty of the materials/designs/operating environments, and (c) be able to demonstrate that the proposed program of surveillances will reliably detect unacceptable degradation of an SSC before SSC failure occurs. These challenges are discussed in the paper, and a potentially applicable modeling approach based on cumulative damage rather than failure rates is briefly illustrated.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A statistical model to predict ignition probability

Ignition capability is a critical design constraint for aeronautical gas turbines. However the current trend toward overall lean burn is detrimental to the engine ignition and relight and the ignition system must be adapted to ensure a fast and reliable light-round in all circumstances. As ignition is a stochastic phenomenon, the optimization of an ignition system requires to build ignition probability maps, which is difficult and costly with either experiment or numerical simulation as both require many tests. Here, this work proposes a model to predict the ignition probability map, knowing only flow statistics in non-reacting conditions, i.e., with only one test. The originality of the model is to construct statistics of the flame kernel trajectory, which are then combined with local flow indicators to evaluate the ignition probability at the considered sparking location. Application to a swirled burner operated in premixed, non-premixed and spray combustion modes illustrates the model concepts and demonstrates its ability to recover the experimental ignition map with good accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Parametric evaluation of ducted fuel injection in an optically accessible mixing-controlled compression-ignition engine with two- and four-duct assemblies

Ducted fuel injection (DFI) is a strategy to improve fuel/charge-gas mixing in direct-injection compression-ignition engines. DFI involves injecting fuel along the axis of a small tube in the combustion chamber, which promotes the formation of locally leaner mixtures in the autoignition zone relative to conventional diesel combustion. Previous work has demonstrated that DFI is effective at curtailing engine-out soot emissions across a wide range of operating conditions. This study extends previous investigations, presenting engine-out emissions and efficiency trends between ducted two-orifice and ducted four-orifice injector tip configurations. For each configuration, parameters investigated include injection pressure, injection duration, intake manifold pressure, intake manifold temperature, start of combustion timing, and intake-oxygen mole fraction. For both configurations and across all parameters, DFI reduced engine-out soot emissions compared to conventional diesel combustion, with little effect on other emissions and engine efficiency. Emissions trends for both configurations were qualitatively the same across the parameters investigated. The four-duct configuration had higher thermal efficiency and indicated-specific engine-out nitrogen oxide emissions but lower indicated-specific engine-out hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions than the two-duct assembly. Both configurations achieved indicated-specific engine-out emissions for both soot and nitrogen oxides that comply with current on- and off-road heavy-duty regulations in the United States without exhaust-gas aftertreatment at an intake-oxygen mole fraction of 12%. High-speed in-cylinder imaging of natural soot luminosity shows that some conditions include a second soot-production phase late in the cycle. The probability of these late-cycle events is sensitive to both the number of ducted sprays and the operating conditions.

Yraguen, Boni Frances↗

NASA NTRS1987

Stochastic estimation of organized structures in turbulent channel flow

Linear stochastic estimation is used to approximate the conditional vector fields associated with high Reynolds stress producing events in numerically simulated turbulent channel flow. Joint probability density distributions of u-v are presented for y(+) between 1.35 and 180, and at each position the u-v values that make the greatest contributions to the average uv3 are used to define conditional ejection- and sweep-type events. In the y-z plane the conditional fields appear to be pairs of counter-rotating vortices. When the conditional event defined by the weighted probability density function is specified at a point close to the wall, the spacing and size of these eddies are consistent with the accepted wall streak spacing. As this point moves outwards, the eddy size increases significantly. An abrupt change in the flow angle occurs in the buffer layer and may indicate transition from streamwise oriented wall layer structures to hairpin vortices characterizing the outer layer.

Moin, P.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Classification and Fusion of Two Disparate Data Streams and Nuclear Dissolutions Application

We consider two streams of data or measurements with disparate qualities and time resolutions that need to be classified. The first stream consists of higher quality data at a coarser time resolution, and the other consists of lower quality data at a finer time resolution. We present a fuser-switch method that fuses the set of classifiers of each stream separately and switches between them. We show that this method provides classification decisions at a finer time resolution with superior detection and false alarm probabilities compared to individual classifiers, under the statistical independence and time resolution ratio conditions. When classifiers are trained using machine learning methods, we show that this superior performance is guaranteed with a confidence probability specified by the classifiers' generalization equations. We use these results to provide analytical foundations for previous practical results that achieved significant performance improvements in classifying Pu/Np target dissolution events at a radiochemical processing facility.

Rao, Nageswara↗

NASA NTRS1984

The Corfu Landslide: Analog to Giant Landslides on Mars

In an analog to the great landslides of the Vales Marineris, Mars, a detailed study was made of the Corfu Landslide in south-central Washington. This prehistoric slide is located on the northern flank of the Saddle Mountains, southwest of Othello, Washington. The slide covers a 13 square km area centered on section 11 of T.15N., R.27E., Willamette Meridian, adjacent to the Corfu townsite. Approximately 1 cubic km of material is involved in sliding that was probably initiated by Missoula flooding through the Channeled Scabland. It is concluded that there were four primary factors involved in the initiation of the Corfu landsliding: (1) A slip surface was present at the right orientation; (2) Glacial flooding undercut the slope; (3) Wetter climatic conditions prevailed during that time period; and (4) Some seismic vibrations, known to occur locally, probably acted as a trigger. These factors show that special conditions were required in conjunction to produce landsliding. Studies in progress of the Vales Marieneris suggest that the same factors probably contributed to landsliding there.

Scott W. Lewis↗

NASA NTRS2011

Broken Ergodicity in MHD Turbulence in a Spherical Domain

Broken ergodicity (BE) occurs in Fourier method numerical simulations of ideal, homogeneous, incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence. Although naive statistical theory predicts that Fourier coefficients of fluid velocity and magnetic field are zero-mean random variables, numerical simulations clearly show that low-wave-number coefficients have non-zero mean values that can be very large compared to the associated standard deviation. In other words, large-scale coherent structure (i.e., broken ergodicity) in homogeneous MHD turbulence can spontaneously grow out of random initial conditions. Eigenanalysis of the modal covariance matrices in the probability density functions of ideal statistical theory leads to a theoretical explanation of observed BE in homogeneous MHD turbulence. Since dissipation is minimal at the largest scales, BE is also relevant for resistive magnetofluids, as evidenced in numerical simulations. Here, we move beyond model magnetofluids confined by periodic boxes to examine BE in rotating magnetofluids in spherical domains using spherical harmonic expansions along with suitable boundary conditions. We present theoretical results for 3-D and 2-D spherical models and also present computational results from dynamical simulations of 2-D MHD turbulence on a rotating spherical surface. MHD turbulence on a 2-D sphere is affected by Coriolus forces, while MHD turbulence on a 2-D plane is not, so that 2-D spherical models are a useful (and simpler) intermediate stage on the path to understanding the much more complex 3-D spherical case.

Shebalin, John V.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-Based Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction with Socio-Economic and Power Infrastructure Data

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2020

Medics: Medical Decision Support System for Long-Duration Space Exploration

The Autonomous Medical Operations (AMO) group at NASA Ames is developing a “medical decision support system” to enable astronauts on long-duration exploration missions to operate autonomously. The system will support clinical actions by providing medical interpretation advice and procedural recommendations during emergent care and clinical work performed by crew. The current state of development of the system, called MedICS (Medical Interpretation Classification and Segmentation) includes two separate aspects: a set of machine learning diagnostic models trained to analyze organ images and patient health records, and an interface to ultrasound diagnostic hardware and to medical repositories. Three sets of images of different organs and medical records were utilized for training machine learning models for various analyses, as follows: 1. Pneumothorax condition (collapsed lung). The trained model provides a positive or negative diagnosis of the condition. 2. Carotid artery occlusion. The trained model produces a diagnosis of 5 different occlusion levels (including “normal”). 3. Ocular retinal images. The model extracts optic disc pixels (image segmentation). This is a precursor step for advanced autonomous fundus clinical evaluation algorithms to be implemented in FY20. 4. Medical health records. The model produces a differential diagnosis for any particular individual, based on symptoms and other health and demographic information. A probability is calculated for each of 25 most common conditions. The same model provides the likelihood of survival. All results are provided with a confidence level. Item 1 images were provided by the US Army and were part of a data set for the clinical treatment of injured battlefield soldiers. This condition is relevant to possible space mishaps, due to pressure management issues. Item 2 images were provided by Houston Methodist Hospital, and item 3 health records were acquired from the MIT laboratory of computational physiology. The machine learning technology utilized is deep multilayer networks (Deep Learning), and new models will continue to be produced, as relevant data is made available and specific health needs of astronaut crews are identified. The interfacing aspects of the system include a GUI for running the different models, and retrieving and storing data, as well as support for integration with an augmented reality (AR) system deployed at JSC by Tietronix Software Inc. (HoloLens). The AR system provides guidance for the placement of an ultrasound transducer that captures images to be sent to the MedICS system for diagnosis. The image captured and the associated diagnosis appear in the technician’s AR visual display.

Colombano, Silvano↗

DOE OSTI2020

The relatively young and rural population may limit the spread and severity of COVID-19 in Africa: a modelling study

A novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread to all regions of the world. There is great uncertainty regarding how countries’ characteristics will affect the spread of the epidemic; to date, there are few studies that attempt to predict the spread of the epidemic in African countries. In this paper, we investigate the role of demographic patterns, urbanisation and comorbidities on the possible trajectories of COVID-19 in Ghana, Kenya and Senegal. We use an augmented deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to predict the true spread of the disease, under the containment measures taken so far. We disaggregate the infected compartment into asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic and severely symptomatic to match observed clinical development of COVID-19. We also account for age structures, urbanisation and comorbidities (HIV, tuberculosis, anaemia). In our baseline model, we project that the peak of active cases will occur in July, subject to the effectiveness of policy measures. When accounting for the urbanisation, and factoring in comorbidities, the peak may occur between 2 June and 17 June (Ghana), 22 July and 29 August (Kenya) and, finally, 28 May and 15 June (Senegal). Successful containment policies could lead to lower rates of severe infections. While most cases will be mild, we project in the absence of policies further containing the spread, that between 0.78% and 1.03%, 0.61% and 1.22%, and 0.60% and 0.84% of individuals in Ghana, Kenya and Senegal, respectively, may develop severe symptoms at the time of the peak of the epidemic. Compared with Europe, Africa’s younger and rural population may modify the severity of the epidemic. The large youth population may lead to more infections but most of these infections will be asymptomatic or mild, and will probably go undetected. The higher prevalence of underlying conditions must be considered.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1977

Microwave backscattering theory and active remote sensing of the ocean surface

The status is reviewed of electromagnetic scattering theory relative to the interpretation of microwave remote sensing data acquired from spaceborne platforms over the ocean surface. Particular emphasis is given to the assumptions which are either implicit or explicit in the theory. The multiple scale scattering theory developed during this investigation is extended to non-Gaussian surface statistics. It is shown that the important statistic for the case is the probability density function of the small scale heights conditioned on the large scale slopes; this dependence may explain the anisotropic scattering measurements recently obtained with the AAFE Radscat. It is noted that present surface measurements are inadequate to verify or reject the existing scattering theories. Surface measurements are recommended for qualifying sensor data from radar altimeters and scatterometers. Additional scattering investigations are suggested for imaging type radars employing synthetically generated apertures.

Brown, G. S.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Effective use of Landsat for range monitoring and management - An example on a regional scale

Some results of a study undertaken in the Great Plains region to evaluate the use of Landsat for monitoring rangeland ecosystems are briefly summarized. A vegetation parameter, the Transformed Vegetation Index (TVI), was developed as a green biomass indicator. It was determined that for rangelands with good vegetative cover, and which are not heavily infested with brush, green biomass can be estimated in increments of 250-300 kg/ha with a 95% probability. At least five levels of range feed conditions can be mapped with TVI data using the MSS Band 6.

Deering, D. W.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Refractory-element-rich inclusions in CM meteorites

Refractory-element-rich inclusions of a variety of types occur in CM meteorites. Based on detailed study of Murchison and more limited investigations of Murray, Nogoya, Cold Bokkeveld and Mighei, the most common of these inclusions are small spinel-hibonite bodies rimmed with diopside. Bulk chemical compositions are estimated to be approximately 67% Al2O3, 21% MgO, 5.5% CaO, 5.5% TiO2, and 1% SiO2. Although this chemical composition does not agree closely with current theoretically predicted compositions of early condensate assemblages, the inclusions have many features which suggest that they are indeed early condensates. These include texture, mineralogical composition, sequence of minerals and magnesium isotopic composition of hibonite. The CM refractory inclusions exhibit several differences from those observed in Allende and other CV meteorites. These probably record variations in time, place or physical conditions of origin for the two cases.

Macdougall, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A flight-test and simulation evaluation of the longitudinal final approach and landing performance of an automatic system for a light wing loading STOL aircraft equipped with wing spoilers

As part of a comprehensive flight-test investigation of short takeoff and landing (STOL) operating systems for the terminal systems for the terminal area, an automatic landing system has been developed and evaluated for a light wing-loading turboprop-powered aircraft. An advanced digital avionics system performed display, navigation, guidance, and control functions for the test aircraft. Control signals were generated in order to command powered actuators for all conventional controls and for a set of symmetrically driven wing spoilers. This report describes effects of the spoiler control on longitudinal autoland (automatic landing) performance. Flight-test results, with and without spoiler control, are presented and compared with available (basically, conventional takeoff and landing) performance criteria. These comparisons are augmented by results from a comprehensive simulation of the controlled aircraft that included representations of the microwave landing system navigation errors that were encountered in flight as well as expected variations in atmospheric turbulence and wind shear. Flight-test results show that the addition of spoiler control improves the touchdown performance of the automatic landing system. Spoilers improve longitudinal touchdown and landing pitch-attitude performance, particularly in tailwind conditions. Furthermore, simulation results indicate that performance would probably be satisfactory for a wider range of atmospheric disturbances than those encountered in flight. Flight results also indicate that the addition of spoiler control during the final approach does not result in any measurable change in glidepath track performance, and results in a very small deterioration in airspeed tracking. This difference contrasts with simulations results, which indicate some improvement in glidepath tracking and no appreciable change in airspeed tracking. The modeling problem in the simulation that contributed to this discrepancy with flight was not resolved.

Brown, S. C.↗