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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Evolution of a Geological Model for Co-Producing Electricity at the Blackburn Oil Field, Nevada: Preprint

Oil fields characterized by significant proportions of hot water in the reservoir offer a unique opportunity for geothermal energy co-production and utilization. Development of an accurate geological model is essential in understanding the subsurface. However, this is a challenge at the preliminary stages of resource assessment when data on the subsurface parameters and subterranean fault network is scarce. Our focus in this paper is to explore a methodology for developing an accurate conceptual geological model of the complexly faulted reservoir at the Blackburn Field, Nevada, to create a numerical simulation that will eventually be used to assess the potential of co-producing electricity. There are four steps to the evolution of this model: (1) collection of public data and research on the geological setting of the system; (2) digitization of seismic time-interpretation and cross-sections to create the most representative model of the subsurface; and (3) creation of a natural-state numerical model to simulate the thermal gradient through the subsurface. Utilizing publicly available data of the geological system and Leapfrog conceptual modeling software, we refined a preliminary model to be more representative of the subsurface geology of an active geothermal exploration stage project. The conceptual geological model developed has been imported into VOLSUNG reservoir modeling software to create a natural-state model, further characterizing the Blackburn Field reservoir's thermal gradient. In the future, new seismic data will be utilized to further evolve the conceptual geological model for numerical simulations.

Basin and Range province↗
NASA NTRS1992

Designer's unified cost model

A conceptual and preliminary designers' cost prediction model has been initiated. The model will provide a technically sound method for evaluating the relative cost of different composite structural designs, fabrication processes, and assembly methods that can be compared to equivalent metallic parts or assemblies. The feasibility of developing cost prediction software in a modular form for interfacing with state of the art preliminary design tools and computer aided design programs is being evaluated. The goal of this task is to establish theoretical cost functions that relate geometric design features to summed material cost and labor content in terms of process mechanics and physics. The output of the designers' present analytical tools will be input for the designers' cost prediction model to provide the designer with a data base and deterministic cost methodology that allows one to trade and synthesize designs with both cost and weight as objective functions for optimization. The approach, goals, plans, and progress is presented for development of COSTADE (Cost Optimization Software for Transport Aircraft Design Evaluation).

Freeman, William T.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Design Oriented Structural Modeling for Airplane Conceptual Design Optimization

The main goal for research conducted with the support of this grant was to develop design oriented structural optimization methods for the conceptual design of airplanes. Traditionally in conceptual design airframe weight is estimated based on statistical equations developed over years of fitting airplane weight data in data bases of similar existing air- planes. Utilization of such regression equations for the design of new airplanes can be justified only if the new air-planes use structural technology similar to the technology on the airplanes in those weight data bases. If any new structural technology is to be pursued or any new unconventional configurations designed the statistical weight equations cannot be used. In such cases any structural weight estimation must be based on rigorous "physics based" structural analysis and optimization of the airframes under consideration. Work under this grant progressed to explore airframe design-oriented structural optimization techniques along two lines of research: methods based on "fast" design oriented finite element technology and methods based on equivalent plate / equivalent shell models of airframes, in which the vehicle is modelled as an assembly of plate and shell components, each simulating a lifting surface or nacelle / fuselage pieces. Since response to changes in geometry are essential in conceptual design of airplanes, as well as the capability to optimize the shape itself, research supported by this grant sought to develop efficient techniques for parametrization of airplane shape and sensitivity analysis with respect to shape design variables. Towards the end of the grant period a prototype automated structural analysis code designed to work with the NASA Aircraft Synthesis conceptual design code ACS= was delivered to NASA Ames.

Livne, Eli↗
NASA NTRS2003

Assessing model uncertainty in the conceptual design of a monopropellant propulsion system

An assessment of model uncertainty via probabilistic methods is described. An important question that arises in conceptual design is how accurate do models have to be to be useful? That is to say, when do other uncertainties in higher fidelity model counteract its accuracy when compared to a lower fidelity model faced with these same uncertainties?.

model uncertainty probabilistic methods conceptual↗
NASA NTRS2013

Model-based Systems Engineering: Creation and Implementation of Model Validation Rules for MOS 2.0

Model-based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is an emerging modeling application that is used to enhance the system development process. MBSE allows for the centralization of project and system information that would otherwise be stored in extraneous locations, yielding better communication, expedited document generation and increased knowledge capture. Based on MBSE concepts and the employment of the Systems Modeling Language (SysML), extremely large and complex systems can be modeled from conceptual design through all system lifecycles. The Operations Revitalization Initiative (OpsRev) seeks to leverage MBSE to modernize the aging Advanced Multi-Mission Operations Systems (AMMOS) into the Mission Operations System 2.0 (MOS 2.0). The MOS 2.0 will be delivered in a series of conceptual and design models and documents built using the modeling tool MagicDraw. To ensure model completeness and cohesiveness, it is imperative that the MOS 2.0 models adhere to the specifications, patterns and profiles of the Mission Service Architecture Framework, thus leading to the use of validation rules. This paper outlines the process by which validation rules are identified, designed, implemented and tested. Ultimately, these rules provide the ability to maintain model correctness and synchronization in a simple, quick and effective manner, thus allowing the continuation of project and system progress.

Model-based Systems Engineering (MBSE)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight Dynamics Modeling for a Rapid Conceptual Development Environment

This paper presents the integration of flight dynamics modeling (FDM) within an aircraft conceptual development framework. Within this framework, FDM and simulation are used for the preliminary analysis of the takeoff, landing, and critical loss of thrust performance of early-stage aircraft concepts. The aerodynamic and propulsive models are built using the XML-based DAVE-ML model exchange. Automated integration of these models is achieved using the Simulink® model generation available through the DAVEtools Java package in addition to Simulink®-based flight simulation blocks. Results demonstrating the established methods are presented for the analysis of a twin-engine light transport example aircraft. This work establishes methods that will be used to perform trade studies of aircraft designed for Regional Air Mobility operations. These aircraft will require short takeoff and landing distances in addition to steep climb and descent gradients, each of which can be estimated and applied as design space constraints using the current methods.

Flight Dynamics↗
NASA NTRS1972

Conceptual design of a 10 to the 8th power bit magnetic bubble domain mass storage unit and fabrication, test and delivery of a feasibility model

The conceptual design of a highly reliable 10 to the 8th power-bit bubble domain memory for the space program is described. The memory has random access to blocks of closed-loop shift registers, and utilizes self-contained bubble domain chips with on-chip decoding. Trade-off studies show that the highest reliability and lowest power dissipation is obtained when the memory is organized on a bit-per-chip basis. The final design has 800 bits/register, 128 registers/chip, 16 chips/plane, and 112 planes, of which only seven are activated at a time. A word has 64 data bits +32 checkbits, used in a 16-adjacent code to provide correction of any combination of errors in one plane. 100 KHz maximum rotational frequency keeps power low (equal to or less than, 25 watts) and also allows asynchronous operation. Data rate is 6.4 megabits/sec, access time is 200 msec to an 800-word block and an additional 4 msec (average) to a word. The fabrication and operation are also described for a 64-bit bubble domain memory chip designed to test the concept of on-chip magnetic decoding. Access to one of the chip's four shift registers for the read, write, and clear functions is by means of bubble domain decoders utilizing the interaction between a conductor line and a bubble.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2022

Applying 3D Geologic Modeling Workflows to the Argillite Reference Case (Rev. 1)

The objective of this short report is to document the application of our 3D geologic modeling workflow to an argillite (shale) host rock. Over the past four years, our team at Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed a geologic modeling workflow that can be applied to generic alluvial basins such as those found in the western United States. In “frontier” or “exploratory” basins where data are sparse, the first steps are to collect, evaluate and integrate available subsurface data into conceptual geologic models. Those models form the basis for constructing the geologic framework model, a 3D geocellular model ideally constrained by seismic and borehole data. To date we have constructed our models using “synthetic” well data derived from conceptual models, without the prospect of validating our workflow using “real” subsurface data. We were tasked to investigate whether our workflow designed for alluvial basin sediments could be applied to other potential repository host rocks. This task also provided the opportunity to work with high-quality subsurface data collected specifically for siting and evaluating a nuclear waste repository. Nagra, the Swiss governmental agency responsible for the disposal of the nation’s radioactive waste, generously provided us with data from two deep boreholes drilled through their argillaceous target formation. The aim of our proof-of-concept demonstration is to evaluate whether geostatistical methods offer a viable approach to property modeling in argillaceous rocks. Nagra provided us with the well data on the condition that we maintain confidentiality with all transferred information and results. Fortunately, Nagra posts numerous technical reports on its public website that describe the subsurface geology in great detail. All of the information and illustrations in this report related to the Swiss repository enterprise are taken from the Nagra public website.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Cammp Team

The International Space Station (ISS) Configuration Analysis Modeling and Mass Properties (CAMMP) Team is presenting a demo of certain CAMMP capabilities at a Booz Allen Hamilton conference in San Antonio. The team will be showing pictures of low fidelity, simplified ISS models, but no dimensions or technical data. The presentation will include a brief description of the contract and task, description and picture of the Topology, description of Generic Ground Rules and Constraints (GGR&C), description of Stage Analysis with constraints applied, and wrap up with description of other tasks such as Special Studies, Cable Routing, etc. The models include conceptual Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and Lunar Lander images and animations created for promotional purposes, which are based entirely on public domain conceptual images from public NASA web sites and publicly available magazine articles and are not based on any actual designs, measurements, or 3D models. Conceptual Mars rover and lander are completely conceptual and are not based on any NASA designs or data. The demonstration includes High Fidelity Computer Aided Design (CAD) models of ISS provided by the ISS 3D CAD Team which will be used in a visual display to demonstrate the capabilities of the Teamcenter Visualization software. The demonstration will include 3D views of the CAD models including random measurements that will be taken to demonstrate the measurement tool. A 3D PDF file will be demonstrated of the Blue Book fidelity assembly complete model with no vehicles attached. The 3D zoom and rotation will be displayed as well as random measurements from the measurement tool. The External Configuration Analysis and Tracking Tool (ExCATT) Microsoft Access Database will be demonstrated to show its capabilities to organize and track hardware on ISS. The data included will be part numbers, serial numbers, historical, current, and future locations, of external hardware components on station. It includes dates of all external ISS events and flights and the associated hardware changes for each event. The hardware location information does not always reveal the exact location of the hardware, only the general location. In some cases the location is a module or carrier, in other cases it is a WIF socket, handrail, or attach point. Only small portions of the data will be displayed for demonstration purposes.

Evertt, Shonn F.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis of Washington State Prospects: Final Report

The Washington State Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis overcomes the exploration challenges posed by dense vegetation, glacial deposits, and extreme precipitation. The geothermal play-fairways we target are locations where heat, permeability, and saturated porosity are present in sufficient volume to provide adequate heat exchange at depths accessible by modern drilling technology. The three study areas lie along the Cascade Range magmatic arc and are near Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens, and the Wind River Valley. The seven-year project is divided into three phases. In Phase 1 we build on a previous statewide assessment of geothermal resources and develop an initial modeling approach. The results are a series of favorability, uncertainty, and risk maps for three targeted study areas. Based on these initial results, we collect new geologic and geophysical data to further refine our modeling and reduce exploration uncertainty in Phase 2. We improve the modeling method to handle the new data and update the favorability, uncertainty, and risk maps. We also update the conceptual geothermal resource models. In Phase 3 we validate our modeling approach by drilling two temperature-gradient holes and collecting and analyzing core, image logs, and new geochemistry. Our modeling approach improves on an earlier statewide method through a more-rigorous and detailed assessment of heat and permeability. Permeability potential is assessed through geomechanical modeling of the deformation that can generate and maintain reservoir porosity and permeability. Metrics to inform heat potential include temperature-gradient wells, which are sparse in Washington; proximity of Quaternary volcanic vents and young intrusive rock; spring temperature; and reservoir temperature inferred from geothermometry. We weight the individual components using an expert-guided approach known as the Analytical Hierarchy Process. During Phase 2 we also develop a fluid-filled fracture model, and an infrastructure model that helps to delineate areas which are more favorable for geothermal development based on proximity to transmission lines, elevation, land ownership and use restrictions, and availability of process water. New geologic and geophysical data is collected during Phase 2 in each of our three main study areas. At Mount Baker and north of Mount St. Helens we conduct 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping and lidar analysis to better constrain the location and character of surface faults; detailed mapping in the Wind River Valley was completed just prior to the start of this project. Ages of intrusive rocks are determined with 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronology, though all of our samples are Miocene or older. We collect ground based gravity observations (a total of 1,580 new stations) in all of our study areas and ground-based magnetic lines (a total of 93 km) at Mount Baker. These data are combined with existing gravity and aeromagnetic data and used to constrain fault locations and geometry. Two to three cross sections are constructed at each study area using the mapped surface geology and forward-modeling of the gravity and magnetic data; these cross sections form the basis for our updated conceptual models. We collect magnetotelluric surveys at Mount Baker and Mount St. Helens and these data are inverted to form a resistivity model from the surface to about 10 km depth; each model shows conductive zones that can be interpreted as upwelling geothermal fluids. At Mount St. Helens we deploy a passive seismic array and use the newly detected events to refine the location of the Saint Helens seismic zone. We also employ ambient-noise tomography to develop a detailed seismic-velocity model for the study area and use this model to help constrain our cross sections and conceptual model. Based on the new data collected during Phase 2—and our updated models—we develop a campaign of temperature-gradient holes and core analysis to validate our modeling in Phase 3. Drill hole MB76-31 is located near Little Park Creek, 11 km west-southwest of the summit of Mount Baker, and is 1,471 ft deep. About 410 ft of core from the lower portion of the hole—and image logs from ~175 ft below ground surface to the bottom—are collected and analyzed. Water samples are collected and processed for geothermometry. Drill hole MSH17-24 is located along upper Schultz Creek, 16 km north-northeast of Mount St. Helens and has core from 470 ft to the bottom at 1,053 ft. We did not collect image logs due to borehole stability concerns, but water samples are collected and analyzed for geothermometry. Repeat temperature-gradient measurements are made at both sites and thermal conductivity is measured from core samples. At MB76-31, the equilibrated temperature gradient of 64°C/km and calculated heat flow of 141–159 mW/m 2 is more than twice the regional average. Detailed mapping and analysis of the core, coupled with correlation to the image logs, indicates a history of permeability generation consistent with our predictions of high permeability. Because the site has high favorability in the Phase 2 model, we consider the results a positive validation of the modeling. At site MSH17-24, the equilibrated temperature gradient of ~15°C/km and calculated heat flow of 41–43 mW/m 2 are similar to regional. Geochemical analysis of the water samples indicates a meteoric source without any geothermal component. Detailed outcrop-based mapping of fault exposures near the drill site and analysis of image logs from nearby boreholes indicates a history of permeability generation consistent with our predictions. Because the site has low favorability in the Phase 2 model, we consider the results a positive validation of the modeling. Together, the two sites provide a reasonably positive validation of the Phase 2 modeling and should encourage future use of this modeling approach.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Challenge of Achieving Site Closure of a Complex Groundwater Plume - 20531

Over the last three decades, DOE has made substantial progress in nearly every area of nuclear waste cleanup and has closed and transitioned 91 of the 107 sites in the EM complex. Several of the remaining groundwater plumes at Hanford, Los Alamos, Paducah, Oak Ridge, and Savannah River are complex and tend to have unique site or contaminant characteristics which provide an almost impossible challenge to remediate to regulatory levels. As a result, these complex sites will require a large investment to remediate. In order for DOE to achieve regulatory closure, a technically sound case must be developed and presented to regulators and stakeholders that clearly demonstrates that remedial goals have been or will be irreversibly achieved or that there is an alternate acceptable end-state. Five lines of evidence are required: - A conceptual site model that is as complete as possible, with the knowledge that it may continue to evolve with time; - Demonstration that trends in contaminant concentrations, or flux, versus time indicate that remedial goals will be achieved on schedule or within a reasonable time thereafter and that trends that deviate from this path are explainable by the conceptual model; - Demonstration that remobilization of attenuated contaminants is unlikely to occur in the future; - Explicit consideration of remedial contingencies, should deviations in the path toward remedial goals occur; - Development of an effective long-term monitoring plan to detect any conditions that might alter the path toward remedial goals. SRS has made significant progress in the remediation of contamination associated with the F-area and H-Area Seepage Basins, and it is currently developing a strategic closure path that addresses each of these lines of evidence and identifies both basic and applied scientific issues that will need to be addressed in order to obtain regulatory closure. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reviews and syntheses: Variable inundation across Earth's terrestrial ecosystems

Abstract. The structure, function, and dynamics of Earth's terrestrial ecosystems are profoundly influenced by how often (frequency) and how long (duration) they are inundated with water. A diverse array of natural and human-engineered systems experience temporally variable inundation whereby they fluctuate between inundated and non-inundated states. Variable inundation spans extreme events to predictable sub-daily cycles. Variably inundated ecosystems (VIEs) include hillslopes, non-perennial streams, wetlands, floodplains, temporary ponds, tidal systems, storm-impacted coastal zones, and human-engineered systems. VIEs are diverse in terms of inundation regimes, water chemistry and flow velocity, soil and sediment properties, vegetation, and many other properties. The spatial and temporal scales of variable inundation are vast, ranging from sub-meter to whole landscapes and from sub-hourly to multi-decadal. The broad range of system types and scales makes it challenging to predict the hydrology, biogeochemistry, ecology, and physical evolution of VIEs. Despite all experiencing the loss and gain of an overlying water column, VIEs are rarely considered together in conceptual, theoretical, modeling, or measurement frameworks and approaches. Studying VIEs together has the potential to generate mechanistic understanding that is transferable across a much broader range of environmental conditions, relative to knowledge generated by studying any one VIE type. We postulate that enhanced transferability will be important for predicting changes in VIE function in response to global change. Here we aim to catalyze cross-VIE science that studies drivers and impacts of variable inundation across Earth's VIEs. To this end, we complement expert mini-reviews of eight major VIE systems with overviews of VIE-relevant methods and challenges associated with scale. We conclude with perspectives on how cross-VIE science can derive transferable understanding via unifying conceptual models in which the impacts of variable inundation are studied across multi-dimensional environmental space.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

Interactive geometry modeling of space station conceptual designs

With the advent of a serious interest in the design and implementaton of a low-Earth orbit, manned space station, the need has arisen to rapidly synthesize, characterize, and analyze many conceptual designs. Because the manual generation and analysis of a mathematical design model could consume many man-months, an interactive modeling and analysis capability is sought. This poster session will demonstrate the activities and current capabilities at NASA LaRC that could support the modeling analysis of space station conceptual designs.

Deryder, D. D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A reduced model for the ITER divertor based on SOLPS solutions for ITER Q = 10 baseline conditions: A. identifying options for the control parameters*

Edge codes such as SOLPS coupled to neutral codes such as EIRENE have become so comprehensive and sophisticated that they now constitute, in effect, 'code-experiments' that, as for actual experiments, can benefit from interpretation using simple models and conceptual frameworks, i.e. reduced models. The first task is the identification of options for the reduced model control parameters that are best suited for control of the action of the divertor, i.e. for control of target power loading and sputter-erosion, primarily. A strong correlation between the electron temperature at the divertor target, T e,t , and the neutral deuterium D 2 density at the target, n D2,t , flux-tube resolved, has recently been reported for a number of code studies including SOLPS-4.3 modeling of a set of ~50 ITER baseline cases: Q DT = 10, q 95 = 3, P SOL = 100 MW, metallic walls, and Ne seeding. This part A of the present study reports new results for largely the same ITER cases, confirming the strong correlations reported earlier between local values of T e,t , and (i) n D2,t , and (ii) normalized volumetric losses of power and pressure in the divertor. Strong correlations have now also been found, and are reported here for the first time, between T e,t and all of the divertor target quantities of practical interest. A physical explanation for this surprising result has not been fully identified; nevertheless it has encouraging implications for reduced modeling of the ITER divertor. For such ITER conditions, (i) the global Ne injection rate, Inj Ne [Ne/s], and (ii) the electron temperature at the location on the target where the peak power deposition occurs, T e,t @q ⊥,pk (eV), are found to be promising reduced model control parameters. In the companion report, part B, a reduced model for the ITER divertor is developed and described in detail, based on reversed-direction 2 point modelling, Rev2PM. The input to the reduced model is a value of the variable pair (T et @q ⟂,pk ,Inj Ne ) and the output are values of the various target as well as divertor-entrance quantities of practical interest, e.g. q ⊥,pk , n e,Xpt (the electron density at the poloidal location of the X-point), etc. In part B the reduced model is quantitatively characterized using one half of the code cases; it is then used to successfully predict (replicate) the code values of e.g. n e,Xpt for the other half of the cases.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A reduced model for the ITER divertor based on SOLPS solutions for ITER Q = 10 baseline conditions: B. A reduced model based on reversed-direction two point modeling

Edge codes such as SOLPS coupled to neutral codes such as EIRENE have become so comprehensive and sophisticated that they now constitute, in effect, 'code-experiments' that, as for actual experiments, can benefit from interpretation using simple models and conceptual frameworks, i.e. reduced models. The first task is the identification of options for the reduced model control parameters that are best suited for control of the action of the divertor, i.e. for control of target power loading and sputter–erosion, primarily. A strong correlation between the electron temperature at the divertor target, T e,t , and the neutral deuterium D 2 density at the target, n D2,t , flux-tube resolved, has recently been reported for a number of code studies including SOLPS-4.3 modeling of a set of ~50 ITER baseline cases: Q DT = 10, q 95 = 3, P SOL = 100 MW, metallic walls, and Ne seeding (Pitts et al 2019). Part A of the present study reports new results for largely the same ITER cases, confirming the strong correlation reported earlier between local values of T e,t , and (i) n D2,t , and (ii) normalized volumetric losses of power and pressure in the divertor. Strong correlations have now also been found, and are reported here for the first time, between T e,t and all of the divertor target quantities of practical interest. A physical explanation for this surprising result has not as yet been fully identified; nevertheless it has encouraging implications for reduced modeling of the ITER divertor. For such ITER conditions, (i) the global Ne injection rate, Inj Ne (Ne s –1 ), and (ii) the electron temperature at the location on the target where the peak power deposition occurs, T e,t @q ⊥,pk (eV), are found to be promising reduced model control parameters. In this part B, a reduced model for the ITER divertor is developed and described in detail, based on reversed-direction two point modeling, Rev2PM. The input to the reduced model is a value of the variable pair (T e,t @q ⊥,pk , Inj Ne )for a chosen case and the output are values of the various target as well as divertor-entrance quantities of practical interest, e.g. q ⊥,pk , the electron density at the X-point, n e,Xpt , etc. The reduced model was quantitatively characterized using one half of the code cases; it was then used to successfully predict (replicate) the code values of e.g. n e,Xpt for the other half.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accounting for uncertainty in complex alluvial aquifer modeling by Bayesian multi-model approach

Alluvial aquifers by nature are complex caused by varied depositional environments. Developing a reliable groundwater model to represent an alluvial aquifer is non-trivial. Also, relying on a single best calibrated model may not be sufficient because of an inadequate choice of model parameter values. To better understand groundwater dynamics and improve model prediction reliability, this study presents a Bayesian multi-model uncertainty quantification (BMMUQ) framework to account for model parameter uncertainty in complex alluvial groundwater modeling. The methodology was applied to the agriculturally intensive Mississippi River alluvial aquifer (MRAA), Northeast Louisiana. An aquifer architecture was first constructed using 7,259 well logs in the MRAA area which covers three fluvial deposits (alluvium, braided-stream terrace, and braided-stream terrace-loess). A 12-layer MODFLOW model was then developed to address the alluvial aquifer complexity and well calibrated through a genetic algorithm. This study quantified model parameter uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity and specific storage of sand facies. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm was adopted to derive posterior model weights and head variances of 50 alternative conceptual groundwater flow models, and thereby obtains BMA ensemble model predictions instead of only relying on the best calibrated conceptual model. Overall, results show that an estimated around 950 million m3 of groundwater storage loss occurs in 2015 with respect to the beginning of 2004, due to high groundwater demand for irrigation in the MRAA area. Explicitly quantifying model uncertainty can produce more reliable groundwater level predictions from BMA ensemble model. The presented groundwater modeling framework improves our understanding of the MRAA and provides a valuable tool to assist agricultural water management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗