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DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying airborne fraction trends and the destination of anthropogenic CO 2 by tracking carbon flows in a simple climate model

Abstract Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations have increased as a direct result of human activity and are at their highest level over the last 2 million years, with profound impacts on the Earth system. However, the magnitude and future dynamics of land and ocean carbon sinks are not well understood; therefore, the amount of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions that remain in the atmosphere (the airborne fraction) is poorly constrained. This work aims to quantify the sources and controls of atmospheric CO 2 , the fate of anthropogenic CO 2 over time, and the likelihood of a trend in the airborne fraction. We use Hector v3.0, a coupled simple climate and carbon cycle model with the novel ability to explicitly track carbon as it flows through the Earth system. We use key model parameters in a Monte Carlo analysis of 15 000 model runs from 1750 to 2300. Results are filtered for physical realism against historical observations and CMIP6 projection data, and we calculate the relative importance of parameters controlling how much anthropogenic carbon ends up in the atmosphere. Modeled airborne fraction was roughly 52%, consistent with observational studies. The overwhelming majority of model runs exhibited a negative trend in the airborne fraction from 1960–2020, implying that current-day land and ocean sinks are proportionally taking up more carbon than the atmosphere. However, the percentage of atmospheric CO 2 derived from anthropogenic origins can be much higher because of Earth system feedbacks. We find it peaks at over 90% between 2010–2050. Moreover, when looking at the destination of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions, only a quarter ends up in the atmosphere while more than half of emissions are taken up by the land sink on centennial timescales. This study evaluates the likelihood of airborne fraction trends and provides insights into the dynamics of anthropogenic CO 2 in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Line Rating Models and Their Potential for a Cost‐Effective Transition to Carbon‐Neutral Power Systems

Most transmission system operators (TSOs) currently use seasonally steady-state models considering limiting weather conditions that serve as reference to compute the transmission capacity of overhead power lines. The use of dynamic line rating (DLR) models can avoid the construction of new lines, market splitting, false congestions, and the degradation of lines in a cost-effective way. DLR can also be used in the long run in grid extension and new power capacity planning. In the short run, it should be used to help operate power systems with congested lines. The operation of the power systems is planned to have the market trading into account; thus, it computes transactions hours ahead of real-time operation, using power flow forecasts affected by large errors. In the near future, within a “smart grid” environment, in real-time operation conditions, TSOs should be able to rapidly compute the capacity rating of overhead lines using DLR models and the most reliable weather information, forecasts, and line measurements, avoiding the current steady-state approach that, in many circumstances, assumes ampacities above the thermal limits of the lines. Here, this work presents a review of the line rating methodologies in several European countries and the United States. Furthermore, it presents the results of pilot projects and studies considering the application of DLR in overhead power lines, obtaining significant reductions in the congestion of internal networks and cross-border transmission lines.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Symmetry-resolved CO desorption and oxidation dynamics on O/Ru(0001) probed at the C K-edge by ultrafast X-ray spectroscopy

In this work, we report on carbon monoxide desorption and oxidation induced by 400 nm femtosecond laser excitation on the O/Ru(0001) surface probed by time-resolved X-ray absorption spectroscopy (TR-XAS) at the carbon K-edge. The experiments were performed under constant background pressures of CO (6x10 -8 Torr) and O 2 (3x10 -8 Torr). Under these conditions, we detect two transient CO species with narrow 2π* peaks, suggesting little 2π* interaction with the surface. Based on polarization measurements, we find that these two species have opposing orientations: (1) CO favoring a more perpendicular orientation and (2) CO favoring a more parallel orientation with respect to the surface. We also directly detect gas-phase CO 2 using a mass spectrometer and observe weak signatures of bent adsorbed CO 2 at slightly higher X-ray energies than the 2π* region. These results are compared to previously reported TR-XAS results at the O K-edge where the CO background pressure was three times lower (2x10 -8 Torr) while maintaining the same O 2 pressure. At the lower CO pressure, in the CO 2π* region, we observed adsorbed CO and a distribution of OC-O bond lengths close to the CO oxidation transition state, with little indication of gas-like CO. The shift towards 'gas-like' CO species may be explained by the higher CO exposure, which blocks O adsorption, decreasing O coverage and increasing CO coverage. These effects decrease the CO desorption barrier through dipole-dipole interaction, while simultaneously increasing the CO oxidation barrier.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

High Resolution Static and Dynamic Computed Tomography Analysis of West Virginia Oriskany Formation Cores for Carbon Capture Storage and Utilization in the Appalachian Basin

51st Annual Meeting of the Eastern Section American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Champaign, IL, October 24-25, 2022

Paronish, Thomas J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

EPCAPE-PT-LANL Measurements: Single Particle Soot Photometer

Coastal cities offer a unique environment for studying aerosol-cloud interactions and the effects of urban emissions on cloud properties. As part of the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE), the Partitioning Thrust by Los Alamos National Laboratory (EPCAPE-PT-LANL) was conducted. Our campaign focused on measuring the optical and chemical properties of aerosols and their interactions within marine stratocumulus clouds in La Jolla, California. EPCAPE-PT-LANL enhances the primary goals of EPCAPE through innovative observations of vapor-phase transitions between aerosols and cloud droplets, the impact of black carbon on aerosol-cloud dynamics, and the effects of cloud processing on aerosol optical properties. Instrument: Single Particle Soot Photometer (Droplet Measurements Technology) Data Notes: Contact us if you want additional data products from this instrument. Reported data is the black carbon (rBC) number and mass concentration with diagnostic flags. The SP2 measures incandescence from particles that is induced with a 1064 Nd-YAG laser. Particles that absorb the laser energy and then emit radiation is assumed to contain black carbon. The amount of intensity of radiation is related to the mass of absorbing material in the particle. Here, we calibrate the incandescence intensity to size selected Regal Black (Cabot) nebulized from solution. Data provided for the EPCAPE campaign used the combined broadband high-gain + low-gain channels (BHBL). Each channel has a lower threshold of detection equivalent to 2-s of the respective channel noise. Thresholding has been applied to select between the high-gain and low-gain channels. The detection limit is 80-540 nm (Deq) or 0.36- 55 fg. It is assumed that rBC is the only aerosol type that is in significant concentration in the sampled atmosphere that absorbs the laser energy. Particle data are integrated over 10 second windows to calculate a rBC number and mass concentration. QC/QA: • Diagnostic flags that impacted measured concentration: - Sample, Sheath, and Purge Flow Rates: Despite observing fluctuations in all flows, the rBC detection and mass quantification are generally observed to be stable, although large changes in sample flow rate did impact detection efficiency. A flag was implemented for sample flow deviations >12 cm3/min from the set point averaged over 30 seconds - Laser Power: Detection efficiency decreases with laser power and deviations in laser power also affect mass quantification. Flag for laser power is set for deviations in laser current from the set value >5 mA. - Primary Detector Threshold: Primary thresholding is the signal value which determines whether a “particle” is recorded. Thresholding errors occur when the threshold value is too HIGH and real particles are ignored. • Several periods without data: - 16-18 Nov: Ultra Zero Air generator failure, flows deviated significantly from set points. rBC # conc recovered but questionable. - 20-21 Nov: Offline for calibrations for several hours each day. - 25-27 Nov: Data is missing. - 30 Nov: Power outage 3 Dec: SP2 hard-drive full. - 3 Dec: Power Outage Header: - BHBL_NumbConc[#/cc]: Refers to the number concentration of refractory black carbon (rBC) measured from combined broadband high-gain and low-gain channels, expressed in particles per cubic centimeter. - BHBL_BCMass_Conc[ug/m3]: Refers to the mass concentration of refractory black carbon (rBC) measured from combined broadband high-gain and low-gain channels, expressed in micrograms per cubic meter. - NoData_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag that indicates whether no data was recorded during a measurement. - NoBC_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating whether no black carbon particles were recorded during the measurement. - Laser_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating deviations in laser current during the measurement. - SampleFlow_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating deviations from the set sample flow rate during the measurement. - PrimThresh_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating deviations from the set primary threshold during the measurement, potentially ignoring real particles. - Manual_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating manual intervention or adjustments during the measurement. - CVI_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating whether the Counterflow Virtual Impactor (CVI) was active or inactive during the measurement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

From diamond to BC8 to simple cubic and back: Kinetic pathways to post-diamond carbon phases from metadynamics

Understanding the kinetic pathways connecting carbon polymorphs at multimegabar pressures remains a major unsolved problem in high-pressure physics. Here, we provide insights into the long-standing question of BC8 formation and stability by combining a state-of-the-art SNAP machine-learning interatomic potential with enhanced sampling via metadynamics, enabling direct access to transition mechanisms far beyond the reach of standard molecular dynamics. Our simulations show that carbon phase transformations are intrinsically complex, proceeding through multiple intermediate disordered and crystalline states governed by nontrivial kinetic ordering. We determine the upper pressure limit for BC8 formation and reveal that hexagonal diamond transforms to BC8 faster than cubic diamond—an unexpected and experimentally testable prediction. We also identify a 𝑃⁢222 carbon phase that becomes competitive with diamond and simple cubic above 1.8 TPa, and we demonstrate that BC8 may be quenched to ambient conditions at moderate temperatures. Altogether, these results establish a general and transferable framework for resolving kinetic pathways in solid-solid phase transitions and provide physical insights into carbon's complex high-pressure landscape.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Shock compression of a low-density carbon foam

Porous polymer foams are found in numerous applications where they may be subjected to dynamic compression. The shockwave properties of polymer foams have several features that make shock Hugoniot measurements and interpretation challenging. Here, we present a comparison of dynamic X-ray phase contrast imaging and traditional optical velocimetry approaches to measuring the shocked states for a low-density carbon foam. Overall, dynamic X-ray phase contrast imaging was found to reduce errors associated with the measured Hugoniot states. In this study, the foam exhibits anomalous compression as expected due to its high initial porosity arising from shock heating.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Discovery of an Interlocked and Interwoven Molecular Topology in Nanocarbons via Dynamic C–C Bond Formation

Topologically complex carbon nanostructures are an exciting but largely unexplored class of materials due to their challenging synthesis. Previous methods are low yielding because they rely on irreversible C sp 2 −C sp 2 bond formation, which necessitates complex templating strategies to enforce entanglement. Here, reversible zirconocene coupling of alkynes is developed as a new method to access complex molecular topologies, where dynamic C−C bond formation facilitates entanglement under thermodynamic control, allowing the use of simple precursors without the need for preassembly. This strategy enables the scalable, high-yield synthesis of three topologically distinct nanocarbons, including the serendipitous discovery of a structure containing a new topological motif that was not previously identified or realized synthetically. This motif, consisting of an unusual combination of interlocking and interweaving, was recognized to be generalizable to a new topological class of molecules, introduced here as perplexanes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probing shock dynamics inside micro-wire targets after high-intensity laser irradiation using small angle x-ray scattering of a free-electron laser

In this paper, we present an experiment that explores the plasma dynamics of a 7μm diameter carbon wire after being irradiated with a near-relativistic-intensity short pulse laser. Using an x-ray free electron laser pulse to measure the small angle x-ray scattering signal, we observe that the scattering surface is bent and prone to instability over tens of picoseconds. The dynamics of this process are consistent with the presence of a sharp, propagating shock front inside the wire, moving at a speed close to the hole boring velocity or that expected from a thermal shock at a few tens of Mbar.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Wettability of Two-Dimensional Carbon Allotropes from Molecular Simulations

Force-field Monte Carlo and Molecular Dynamics simulations are used to compare wetting behaviors of model carbon sheets mimicking neat graphene, its saturated derivative, graphane, and related planar allotropes penta-graphene, γ-graphyne, and ψ-graphene in contact with aqueous droplets or an aqueous film confined between parallel carbon sheets. Atomistic and area-integrated surface/water potentials are found to be essentially equivalent in capturing moderate differences between the wetting free energies of tested substrates. Despite notable differences in mechanical and electric properties of distinct allotropes, the predicted allotrope/water contact angles span a narrow window of weakly hydrophilic values. Contact angles in the range of 80 ± 10° indicate modest hydration repulsion incapable of competing with van der Waals attraction between carbon particles. Poor dispersibility in neat water is hence a common feature of studied materials.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interfacial dynamics and catalytic behavior of single Ni atom site

Single-atom catalysts (SACs) have garnered significant interest due to their ability to reduce metal particles to the atomic scale, enabling finely tunable local environments and enhanced catalytic properties in terms of reactivity and selectivity. Despite this potential, their application has largely been confined to small-molecule transformations as metal-catalyzed reaction. Here, in this study, we present a diverse single-atom nickel (Ni) catalyst established via a nanoporous carbon (NPC) supported practice. This catalyst represents a breakthrough by achieving the bond formation between carbon and nitrogen and interfacial dynamics in the SAC. The present first principle-based density functional simulations establish the reaction dynamics and catalytic behaviour of such SAC. This dynamic nature comprises an exclusive nitrogen intercalated site showing excellent base effects. This base quickly tunes the interfacial atmosphere, enabling dynamic movement of adatoms into the NPC species, significantly changing the reaction path in Ni SACs due to superior steric effects. The research demonstrates that SACs can extend the capabilities of catalytic systems to include a wider range of complex reactions, offering substantial promise for the development of new, efficient synthetic methods for creating value-added molecular products.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

DVMDOSTEM v0.8.3: a terrestrial ecosystem model designed to represent arctic, boreal and permafrost ecosystem dynamics

The impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems are the result of complex physical and ecological processes operating and interacting at a variety of spatio-temporal scales, that can be represented in process-based ecosystem models. DVMDOSTEM is an advanced process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM) designed to study ecosystem responses to climate changes and disturbances. It has a particular focus on permafrost regions (i.e. regions characterized by soils that stay partially frozen all year round for at least two consecutive years), encompassing boreal, arctic, and alpine landscapes. The model couples two previous versions of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) (McGuire et al., 1992): DVMTEM that includes a dynamic vegetation module (DVM) (E. S. Euskirchen et al., 2009), and DOSTEM that includes a dynamic organic soil module (DOS) (H. Genet et al., 2013; Yi et al., 2010). DVMDOSTEM simulates processes at yearly and monthly scales, with some physical processes operating at an even finer temporal resolution. Its versatility allows for site-specific to regional simulations, making it valuable for predicting shifts in permafrost, vegetation, and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics. While DVMDOSTEM has been described in the methods sections of many manuscripts, this paper is the first stand alone description of DVMDOSTEM, independent of a particular scientific investigation.

Carman, Tobey B. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic urban land extensification is projected to lead to imbalances in the global land-carbon equilibrium

Abstract Human-Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models used to explore the land-atmosphere implications of future land-use transitions generally lack dynamic representation of urban lands. Here, we conduct an experiment incorporating dynamic urbanization in a multisector model framework. We integrate projected dynamic non-urban lands from a multisector model with projected dynamic urban lands from 2015 to 2100 at 1-km resolution to examine 1 st -order implications to the land system, crop production, and net primary production that can arise from the competition over land resources. By 2100, future urban extensification could displace 0.1 to 1.4 million km 2 of agriculture lands, leading to 22 to 310 Mt of compromised corn, rice, soybean, and wheat production. When considering increased corn production required to meet demands by 2100, urban extensification could cut increases in yields by half. Losses in net primary production from displaced forest, grassland, and croplands ranged from 0.24 to 2.24 Gt C yr −1 , potentially increasing land emissions by 1.19 to 6.59 Gt CO 2 yr −1 . Although these estimates do not consider adaptive responses, 1 st -order experiments can elucidate the individual role of sub-sectors that would otherwise be masked by model complexity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The black carbon cycle and its role in the Earth system

Black carbon (BC) is produced by incomplete combustion of biomass by wildfires and burning of fossil fuels. BC is environmentally persistent over centuries to millennia, sequestering carbon in marine and terrestrial environments. However, its production, storage and dynamics, and therefore its role in the broader carbon cycling during global change, are poorly understood. Here, in this Review, we discuss BC cycling across the land-to-ocean continuum. Wildfires are the main source of BC, producing 128 ± 84 teragrams per year. Negative climate–BC feedbacks could arise as wildfire increases with anthropogenic warming, producing more BC, which in turn will sequester carbon, but the magnitude of these effects are unknown. Most BC is stored in terrestrial systems with some transported to the ocean via rivers and the atmosphere. However, the oceanic BC budget is not balanced, with known BC removal fluxes exceeding BC inputs. We demonstrate these observed inconsistencies using a simple ocean box model, which highlights key areas of future research. Measurements of BC mineralization and export rates along the land-to-ocean continuum and quantification of previously unexplored sources of oceanic BC are needed to close the global BC budget.

aquatic↗

DOE OSTI2024

EPCAPE-PT-LANL Measurements: PM Modulair 1

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Manuscript model outputs, model source code, and figure scripts: The role of geomorphology in mediating biomass allocation impacts on salt-marsh resilience and carbon accumulation

This data package provides model source code (C++), model outputs, and figure generation scripts (R) needed to reproduce the following manuscript: Bruns, Nicholas E., Genevieve L. Noyce, and Matthew L. Kirwan. "The Role of Geomorphology in Mediating Biomass Allocation Impacts on Salt-Marsh Resilience and Carbon Accumulation." Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 327 (December 2025): 109549. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109549. This manuscript investigates how geomorphology mediates the impact of biomass allocation shifts on salt marsh persistence and carbon (C) sequestration under sea level rise. We use a 1-D soil-column model (Kirwan and Mudd 2012) to perform experiments across a range of static root:shoot ratios (RSR = 1-4) spanning observed values. The model explicitly simulates interactions between tidal inundation, productivity, inorganic sediment deposition, and organic matter accumulation. Experiments determine whether geomorphic feedbacks amplify, dampen, or leave unchanged the ecosystem response to biomass allocation shifts. A first experiment uses constant sea level rise (2.5 mm/yr) to examine equilibrium dynamics and their influence on carbon accumulation rates across different suspended sediment concentrations (SSC). A second set of experiments calculates threshold sea level rise rates for marsh drowning across RSR and SSC combinations. Final experiments apply accelerating sea level rise scenarios (2000-2200) derived from NOAA projections (Sweet et al. 2022) to generate an envelope of expected responses, quantifying the importance of biomass allocation shifts on marsh carbon accumulation and persistence. All experiments are repeated across SSC ranging from 5-50 mg/L to investigate how these interactions vary in micro-tidal marshes with different sediment supplies. Package contents: * README.txt with detailed description of package contents and instructions for reproducing manuscript figures and model outputs * R scripts for generating all manuscript figures * C++ baseline model code from Kirwan and Mudd (2012) * C++ source code for 4 experimental model variants used in the manuscript, extending above baseline code * Model input files (.csv, .txt) including sea level rise scenarios * Model output files (.txt) used in manuscript analyses Temporal coverage: Model simulations span years 1900-2200, with accelerating sea level rise scenarios for 2000-2200. Key variables: Root:shoot ratio, suspended sediment concentration, carbon accumulation rate, vertical accretion rate, marsh elevation, inundation depth, threshold sea level rise rate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic CCS-EJ-SJ Database and Web Application - What's New

At the 2024 FECM/NETL Carbon Management Research Project Review Meeting, within the Carbon Transport and Storage Breakout Session 3, the presentation "Dynamic CCS-EJ-SJ Database and Web Application - What's New" highlights the critical tool designed to integrate environmental and social justice considerations into Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects. Key features include an interactive dashboard for data access and visualization, which supports stakeholders in making informed decisions regarding CCS implementation, and updated data layers. The latest version enhances data integration and usability, providing a comprehensive resource for assessing the social and environmental impacts of CCS projects. There are 7 categories in the CCS EJSJ v2 database (released 03/31/2024): environmental justice, energy justice, economic justice, social justice, ecosystem assets, clean energy, and infrastructure. Most of the layers within each category have been updated in this version. As compared to the old database, there are 3 new categories in the v2 database: ecosystem assets, clean energy, and infrastructure.

Sharma, Maneesh↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deploying a Publicly Available and Living National Oil and Gas Well Geodatabase: CO2-Locate: A Dynamic Database & Tool

Emission mitigation and safe geologic carbon storage require an understanding of local wellbore infrastructure, yet well data are siloed across many entities. Addressing this challenge, the National Energy Technology Laboratory published CO2-Locate, an integrated and dynamic national wellbore geodatabase. CO2-Locate offers up to date well data spanning more than 40 federal, state, and tribal entities, as well as spatially summarized insights designed to support commercial, regulatory, and research communities as they strive to curb climate change through a national energy transition.

Pfander, Isabelle↗