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At least 415 records · Page 23

Making sense of uncertain nuclear data

At its core, and in an imperfect world, the scientific method relies heavily on the concept of uncertain knowledge. Understanding the nature and magnitude of our lack of knowledge on nuclear data has important ramifications on a wide range of nuclear technologies that encompass defense, energy, medicine, astrophysics, among others. Over the span of a long and fruitful carrier, Dr. Massimo Salvatores has made significant contributions to the fields of nuclear reactor physics, nuclear data, and uncertainty quantification and propagation. Advances in machine learning techniques and computational capabilities are enabling a new level of confidence in our ability to predict key nuclear metrics as well as their associated uncertainties across many applications. Here this short article reviews some of those concepts with an eye towards developing a new paradigm to provide nuclear data libraries of benefit to various applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

IceCube Search for Neutrinos Coincident with Gravitational Wave Events from LIGO/Virgo Run O3

Using data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory, we searched for high-energy neutrino emission from the gravitational-wave events detected by the advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors during their third observing run. We did a low-latency follow-up on the public candidate events released during the detectors' third observing run and an archival search on the 80 confident events reported in the GWTC-2.1 and GWTC-3 catalogs. An extended search was also conducted for neutrino emission on longer timescales from neutron star containing mergers. Follow-up searches on the candidate optical counterpart of GW190521 were also conducted. We used two methods; an unbinned maximum likelihood analysis and a Bayesian analysis using astrophysical priors, both of which were previously used to search for high-energy neutrino emission from gravitational-wave events. No significant neutrino emission was observed by any analysis, and upper limits were placed on the time-integrated neutrino flux as well as the total isotropic equivalent energy emitted in high-energy neutrinos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

AT2017gfo: Bayesian inference and model selection of multicomponent kilonovae and constraints on the neutron star equation of state

The joint detection of the gravitational wave GW170817, of the short γ-ray burst GRB170817A and of the kilonova AT2017gfo, generated by the the binary neutron star (NS) merger observed on 2017 August 17, is a milestone in multimessenger astronomy and provides new constraints on the NS equation of state. We perform Bayesian inference and model selection on AT2017gfo using semi-analytical, multicomponents models that also account for non-spherical ejecta. Observational data favour anisotropic geometries to spherically symmetric profiles, with a log-Bayes’ factor of ~104, and favour multicomponent models against single-component ones. The best-fitting model is an anisotropic three-component composed of dynamical ejecta plus neutrino and viscous winds. Using the dynamical ejecta parameters inferred from the best-fitting model and numerical–relativity relations connecting the ejecta properties to the binary properties, we constrain the binary mass ratio to q < 1.54 and the reduced tidal parameter to $120\lt \tilde{\Lambda }\lt 1110$. Finally, we combine the predictions from AT2017gfo with those from GW170817, constraining the radius of a NS of 1.4 M ⊙ to 12.2 ± 0.5 km (1σ level). This prediction could be further strengthened by improving kilonova models with numerical-relativity information.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Enhancing approximate modular Bayesian inference by emulating the conditional posterior

In modular Bayesian analyses, complex models are composed of distinct modules, each representing different aspects of the data or prior information. In this context, fully Bayesian approaches can sometimes lead to undesirable feedback between modules, compromising the integrity of the inference. The “cut-distribution” prevents unwanted influence between modules by “cutting” feedback. The direct sampling (DS) algorithm is standard practice for approximating the cut-distribution, but it can be computationally intensive, especially when the number of imputations required is large. An enhanced method is proposed, the Emulating the Conditional Posterior (ECP) algorithm, which leverages emulation to increase the number of imputations. Through numerical experiment it is demonstrated that the ECP algorithm outperforms the traditional DS approach in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency, particularly when resources are constrained. Here, it is also shown how the DS algorithm can be improved using ideas from design of experiments. Some practical recommendations are given for algorithm choice in modular Bayesian analyses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Velocity Independent Constraints on Spin-Dependent DM-Nucleon Interactions from IceCube and PICO

Adopting the Standard Halo Model (SHM) of an isotropic Maxwellian velocity distribution for dark matter (DM) particles in the Galaxy, the most stringent current constraints on their spin-dependent scattering cross-section with nucleons come from the IceCube neutrino observatory and the PICO-60 $\hbox {C}_3\hbox {F}_8$ superheated bubble chamber experiments. The former is sensitive to high energy neutrinos from the self-annihilation of DM particles captured in the Sun, while the latter looks for nuclear recoil events from DM scattering off nucleons. Although slower DM particles are more likely to be captured by the Sun, the faster ones are more likely to be detected by PICO. Recent N-body simulations suggest significant deviations from the SHM for the smooth halo component of the DM, while observations hint at a dominant fraction of the local DM being in substructures. We use the method of Ferrer et al. (JCAP 1509: 052, 2015) to exploit the complementarity between the two approaches and derive conservative constraints on DM-nucleon scattering. Our results constrain $\sigma _{\mathrm{SD}} \lesssim 3 \times 10^{-39} \mathrm {cm}^2$ ($6 \times 10^{-38} \mathrm {cm}^2$) at $\gtrsim 90\%$ C.L. for a DM particle of mass 1 TeV annihilating into $\tau ^+ \tau ^-$ ($b\bar{b}$) with a local density of $\rho _{\mathrm{DM}} = 0.3~\mathrm {GeV/cm}^3$. The constraints scale inversely with $\rho _{\mathrm{DM}}$ and are independent of the DM velocity distribution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Search for Multi-flare Neutrino Emissions in 10 yr of IceCube Data from a Catalog of Sources

A recent time-integrated analysis of a catalog of 110 candidate neutrino sources revealed a cumulative neutrino excess in the data collected by IceCube between 2008 April 6 and 2018 July 10. This excess, inconsistent with the background hypothesis in the Northern Hemisphere at the 3.3σ level, is associated with four sources: NGC 1068, TXS 0506+056, PKS 1424+240, and GB6 J1542+6129. Here, this Letter presents two time-dependent neutrino emission searches on the same data sample and catalog: a point-source search that looks for the most significant time-dependent source of the catalog by combining space, energy, and time information of the events, and a population test based on binomial statistics that looks for a cumulative time-dependent neutrino excess from a subset of sources. Compared to previous time-dependent searches, these analyses enable a feature to possibly find multiple flares from a single direction with an unbinned maximum-likelihood method. M87 is found to be the most significant time-dependent source of this catalog at the level of 1.7σ post-trial, and TXS 0506+056 is the only source for which two flares are reconstructed. The binomial test reports a cumulative time-dependent neutrino excess in the Northern Hemisphere at the level of 3.0σ associated with four sources: M87, TXS 0506+056, GB6 J1542+6129, and NGC 1068.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Marine Hydrogen Demonstration

This report summarizes Phase 1 of a project involving the design of a Floating Hydrogen Production and Dispensing Barge destined for the Port of San Francisco (SF). The H 2 Barge is designed to produce renewable H 2 at the rate of ~ 530 kg/day, storing 512 kg of hydrogen at 517-bar, allowing fast refueling of hydrogen fuel cell vessels and land-side hydrogen delivery trailers for distribution into the nascent SF hydrogen ecosystem. The broader considerations that impacted the H2 Barge design are also described. An account is given of a new review process formulated by the United States Coast Guard (USCG) to review this first-of-its-kind maritime implementation of hydrogen technology. The immediate goals of the H 2 Barge Project are to 1) demonstrate the feasibility, viability and methods of hydrogen production, storage and fueling in a maritime context, 2) help shape (where needed) and navigate the required local, state and federal regulatory gauntlet and 3) catalyze a “green hydrogen ecosystem” (both marine and landside) with locally produced renewable hydrogen at the San Francisco waterfront. A summary is also given of the modeling and experimental activity of Phase 1 directed to the development of science-based refueling protocols for large marine Type IV 250-bar hydrogen tanks. Combined modeling and experimental studies are reported of the filling of large (28 kg) 250-bar Type IV hydrogen tanks of the type being deployed on early hydrogen ferries, such as the MV Sea Change. The primary question was to determine how such tanks can be successfully filled (state of charge greater than 97%) within 45 minutes without exceeding the 82 °C temperature limit historically set for such tanks. The studies show that a gas injector is needed avoid thermal stratification during filling which can result in potential hot spots. Pre-cooling of the hydrogen was found to be essential in most cases, as ambient conditions greatly affect the need for a pre-cooling to achieve the 45-minute fill time. Pre-cooling cannot be supplied by nearby water, such as that found in nature (bays, lakes, rivers, etc.) because pre-cooling cooling below 0 °C was found to be necessary to avoid excessive compression heating. The experimental results afforded a calibration of the engineering model (SOFIL) for these large 250-bar tanks, which now enables using SOFIL to predict volume-averaged hydrogen filling temperatures to an accuracy of +/- 2.7°C for these tanks. The model can therefore be used to evaluate potential scenarios for development of a standardized fueling methodology for ferries utilizing large Type-IV tanks of the type examined here.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Enabling control co-design of the next generation of wind power plants

Abstract. Layout design and wake steering through wind plant control are important and complex components in the design and operation of modern wind power plants. They are currently optimized separately, but with more and more computational and experimental studies demonstrating the gains possible through wake steering, there is a growing need from industry and regulating bodies to combine the layout and control optimization in a co-design process. However, combining these two optimization problems is currently infeasible due to the excessive number of design variables and large solution space. In this article, we present a method that enables the coupled optimization of wind power plant layout and wake steering with no additional computational expense than a traditional layout optimization. We developed a geometric relationship between wind turbines to find an approximate optimal yaw angle, bypassing the need for either a nested or coupled wind plant control optimization. It also provides a significant and immediate improvement to wind power plant design by enabling the co-design of turbine layout and yaw control for wake steering. A small co-designed plant shown in this article produces 0.8 % more energy than its sequentially designed counterpart. This additional energy production comes with no additional infrastructure, turbine hardware, or control software; it is simply the outcome of optimizing the turbine layout and yaw control together, resulting in millions of dollars of additional revenue for the wind power plants of the future.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Efficient Calibration of Expensive Computational Models

Accounting for uncertainty when calibrating expensive computational models is a common challenge faced by scientists and engineers. Often Bayesian techniques are adopted to estimate a probability density function over the model parameters given noisy empirical data. The methods used to perform this type of probabilistic calibration are computationally prohibitive in that they require a large number of evaluations of the expensive model. In these cases, surrogate modeling -- that is, using a fast-to-evaluate, lower fidelity stand-in for the original computational model -- may be the only option to alleviate this computational burden. However, the upfront cost of generating training data to build a surrogate model can itself be expensive. As such, it is important to be judicious when selecting training points at which the full-fidelity model is evaluated. Here, an active learning approach is proposed that enables efficient selection of training points using approximate samples of the calibrated parameter probability density function. In this way, the training points can be concentrated in regions where the calibration algorithm requires high model accuracy.

active learning↗

Restoration of Geographically Isolated Wetlands: An Amphibian-Centric Review of Methods and Effectiveness

Geographically isolated wetlands provide a critical habitat for pond-breeding amphibians, a taxa of broad conservation concern. Global wetland loss and degradation has made restoration essential for amphibian conservation. Restoration goals typically include recovering the wetlands’ physiochemical, hydrological, and ecological functions. However, for pond-breeding amphibians, successful restoration should also result in sustained populations, which is difficult to assess and infrequently reported. In this paper, we review the available evidence that restoration of geographically isolated wetlands promotes pond-breeding amphibian occupancy and population persistence. We provide an overview of restoration practices addressing hydrology, vegetation, and ecological processes within these unique environments and across spatial scales. We then summarize the evidence, and discuss the limitations, for evaluating successful restoration within the context of amphibian conservation across these categories. Finally, we provide recommendations for researchers and practitioners to leverage prior successes and establish systematic data collection and dissemination. Moving restoration of wetlands for amphibian conservation forward will require more robust data collection and reporting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Hybrid renewable energy systems

In the pursuit of ecologically sustainable and resilient energy systems, increasingly more attention is being devoted to a diversity of energy generation and storage methods. As the landscape of generation technology gains nuance and complexity, a wide-ranging set of technical questions has emerged, touching on topics that range from control and optimization of hybrid systems to finance and economic viability to multi-fidelity modeling and scientific machine learning. In the context of this special issue, hybrid renewable energy systems are any systems that consider the combined dynamics of more than one form of generation, storage, or grid subsystem. Research endeavors have delved into improving the flexibility of energy systems by utilizing existing resources, introducing novel operational strategies, deploying enhanced renewable forecasts, and exploring emerging technologies. In conclusion, the interconnection among various sectors has garnered heightened attention, not only due to the provision of additional tradable energy products but also for furnishing flexible headroom to system operators.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Hydrogen leak detection in the Space Shuttle

This study focuses on a helium gas jet flowing into room air. Measurements of helium concentration and velocity in the jet-air mixture are reported. The objective is to learn about jet characteristics so that dynamically similar hydrogen leaks may be located in the Space Shuttle. The hazardous gas detection system (HGDS) in the mobile launch pad uses mass spectrometers to monitor the shuttle environment for leaks. The mass spectrometers are fed by long sample tubes which draw gas from the payload bay, mid body, aft engine compartment and external tank. The overall purpose of this study is to improve the HGDS especially in its potential for locating hydrogen leaks. A rapid-response leak detection experiment was designed, built, and tested, following on the work done in this program last summer. The apparatus included a Perkin Elmer MGA-1200 mass spectrometer and air velocity transducer, both monitored by a Macintosh IIFX computer using LabVIEW software. A jet of helium flowing into the lab air simulated a gas leak. Steady helium or hydrogen-nitrogen jets were logged for concentration and velocity, and the power spectral density of each was computed. Last year, large eddies and vortices were visually seen with Schlieren imaging, and they were detected in the time plots of the various instruments. The response time of the MGA-1200 was found in the range of 0.05 to 0.1 sec. Pulsed concentration waves were clearly detected at 25 cycles per sec by spectral analysis of MGA data. No peaks were detected in the power spectrum, so in the present study, 10 Hz bandwidth-averaged power levels were examined at regular frequency intervals. The practical consequences of last year's study are as follows: sampling frequency should be increased above the present rate of 1 sample per second so that transients could be observed and analyzed with frequency response methods. Many more experiments and conditions were observed in this second summer, including the effects of orifice diameter, jet velocity, sample tube design, radial effects, vertical flow, and low hydrogen concentrations (1 percent). A frequent observation was that the power spectrum, calculated from the Fourier transform of concentration fluctuations, gives a separate piece of information from concentration. Many of the tests suggest that power is high where mixing occurs at the helium-air interface. This fact is apparently independent of the concentration level, which could be high or low, but depends on the sample location relative to the jet (leak) origin, whereas high concentration may be due to a strong leak far away or a small leak close to the sample tube. If the power is low for any concentration level, this would signify helium is arriving at the sample tube by diffusion, not chaotic mixing caused by the jet interaction with air. The practical result is to propose a modification of the HGDL mass spectrometer data sampling and software so that sampling rates could be capable of observing at least 25 Hz fluctuations.

Barile, Ronald G↗

Graph Neural Networks for low-energy event classification & reconstruction in IceCube

IceCube, a cubic-kilometer array of optical sensors built to detect atmospheric and astrophysical neutrinos between 1 GeV and 1 PeV, is deployed 1.45 km to 2.45 km below the surface of the ice sheet at the South Pole. The classification and reconstruction of events from the in-ice detectors play a central role in the analysis of data from IceCube. Reconstructing and classifying events is a challenge due to the irregular detector geometry, inhomogeneous scattering and absorption of light in the ice and, below 100 GeV, the relatively low number of signal photons produced per event. To address this challenge, it is possible to represent IceCube events as point cloud graphs and use a Graph Neural Network (GNN) as the classification and reconstruction method. The GNN is capable of distinguishing neutrino events from cosmic-ray backgrounds, classifying different neutrino event types, and reconstructing the deposited energy, direction and interaction vertex. Based on simulation, we provide a comparison in the 1 GeV–100 GeV energy range to the current state-of-the-art maximum likelihood techniques used in current IceCube analyses, including the effects of known systematic uncertainties. For neutrino event classification, the GNN increases the signal efficiency by 18% at a fixed background rate, compared to current IceCube methods. Alternatively, the GNN offers a reduction of the background (i.e. false positive) rate by over a factor 8 (to below half a percent) at a fixed signal efficiency. For the reconstruction of energy, direction, and interaction vertex, the resolution improves by an average of 13%–20% compared to current maximum likelihood techniques in the energy range of 1 GeV–30 GeV. The GNN, when run on a GPU, is capable of processing IceCube events at a rate nearly double of the median IceCube trigger rate of 2.7 kHz, which opens the possibility of using low energy neutrinos in online searches for transient events.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Search for Neutrino Doublets and Triplets Using 11.4 yr of IceCube Data

We report a search for high-energy astrophysical neutrino multiplets, detections of multiple neutrino clusters in the same direction within 30 days, based on an analysis of 11.4 yr of IceCube data. A new search method optimized for transient neutrino emission with a monthly timescale is employed, providing a higher sensitivity to neutrino fluxes. This result is sensitive to neutrino transient emission, reaching per-flavor flux of approximately 10 -10 erg cm -2 s -1 from the Northern Sky in the energy range E ≳ 50 TeV. The number of doublets and triplets identified in this search is compatible with the atmospheric background hypothesis, which leads us to set limits on the nature of neutrino transient sources with emission timescales of one month.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The First X-ray Diffraction Patterns of Clay Minerals from Gale Crater

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Rover, Curiosity spent approx 150 sols at Yellowknife Bay (YKB) studying a section of fluvio-lacustrine sedimentary rocks (with potential indications of volcanic influence), informally known as the Yellowknife Bay formation. YKB lies in a distal region of the Peace Vallis alluvial fan, which extends from the northern rim of Gale Crater toward the dune field at the base of Mt Sharp. Sedimentological and stratigraphic observations are consistent with the Yellowknife Bay formation being part of a distal fan deposit, which could be as young as middle Hesperian to even early Amazonian in age (approx 3.5 to 2.5 Ga). The Yellowknife Bay formation hosts a unit of mudstone called the Sheepbed member. Curiosity obtained powdered rock samples from two drill holes in the Sheepbed Member, named John Klein and Cumberland, and delivered them to instruments in Curiosity. Data from CheMin, a combined X-ray diffraction (XRD)/X-ray fluorescence instrument (XRF), has allowed detailed mineralogical analysis of mudstone powders revealing a clay mineral component of approx 20 wt.% in each sample. The clay minerals are important indicators of paleoenvironmental conditions and sensitive recorders of post-depositional alteration processes. The XRD pattern of John Klein reveals a 021 band consistent with a trioctahedral phyllosilicate. A broad peak at approx 10A with a slight inflexion at approx 12A indicates the presence of 2:1 type clay minerals in the John Klein sample. The trioctahedral nature of the clay minerals, breadth of the basal reflection, and presence of a minor component with larger basal spacing suggests that John Klein contains a trioctahedral smectite (probably saponite), whose interlayer is largely collapsed because of the low-humidity conditions. The XRD patterns show no evidence of corrensite (mixed-layer chlorite/smectite) or chlorite, which are typical diagenetic products of trioctahedral smectites when subjected to burial and heating >60degC in the presence of water. Given estimated geothermal gradients on Mars temperatures <60 degC might still be consistent with (but do not require) moderate burial. However, our ability to identify interstratified minerals is greatly limited by the lack of access to traditional treatments methods used in the lab (e.g., ethylene glycol solvation). Our preferred explanation for the origin of trioctahedral smectites in Sheepbed mudstone is in situ production via reaction of olivine, water and Si-bearing amorphous material, an important mudstone component detected by XRD. Elevated levels of magnetite in the Sheepbed and the trioctahedral monomineralic nature of the clay minerals support this model. These observations, combined with previous studies of olivine stability, support the persistence of circum-neutral hydrous conditions for thousands of years at YKB.

Bristow, Thomas↗

Paleoenvironmental Implications of Clay Minerals at Yellowknife Bay, Gale Crater, Mars

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Rover, Curiosity spent approx 150 sols at Yellowknife Bay (YKB) studying a section of fluvio-lacustrine sedimentary rocks (with potential indications of volcanic influence), informally known as the Yellowknife Bay formation. YKB lies in a distal region of the Peace Vallis alluvial fan, which extends from the northern rim of Gale Crater toward the dune field at the base of Mt Sharp. Sedimentological and stratigraphic observations are consistent with the Yellowknife Bay formation being part of a distal fan deposit, which could be as young as middle Hesperian to even early Amazonian in age (approx. 3.5 to 2.5 Ga). The Yellowknife Bay formation hosts a unit of mudstone called the Sheepbed member. Curiosity obtained powdered rock samples from two drill holes in the Sheepbed Member, named John Klein and Cumberland, and delivered them to instruments in Curiosity. Data from CheMin, a combined X-ray diffraction (XRD)/X-ray fluorescence instrument (XRF), has allowed detailed mineralogical analysis of mudstone powders revealing a clay mineral component of approx. 20 wt.% in each sample. The clay minerals are important indicators of paleoenvironmental conditions and sensitive recorders of post-depositional alteration processes. The XRD pattern of John Klein reveals a 02l band consistent with a trioctahedral phyllosilicate. A broad peak at approx. 10A with a slight inflexion at approx. 12A indicates the presence of 2:1 type clay minerals in the John Klein sample. The trioctahedral nature of the clay minerals, breadth of the basal reflection, and presence of a minor component with larger basal spacing suggests that John Klein contains a trioctahedral smectite (probably saponite), whose interlayer is largely collapsed because of the low-humidity conditions. The XRD patterns show no evidence of corrensite (mixed-layer chlorite/smectite) or chlorite, which are typical diagenetic products of trioctahedral smectites when subjected to burial and heating >60 C in the presence of water. Given estimated geothermal gradients on Mars temperatures <60 C might still be consistent with (but do not require) moderate burial. However, our ability to identify interstratified minerals is greatly limited by the lack of access to traditional treatments methods used in the lab (e.g., ethylene glycol solvation). Our preferred explanation for the origin of trioctahedral smectites in Sheepbed mudstone is in situ production via reaction of olivine, water and Si-bearing amorphous material, an important mudstone component detected by XRD. Elevated levels of magnetite in the Sheepbed and the trioctahedral monomineralic nature of the clay minerals support this model. These observations, combined with previous studies of olivine stability, support the persistence of circum-neutral hydrous conditions for thousands of years at YKB.

MSL↗

Search for CP violation in the phase space of D 0 → π⁻π⁺π 0 decays with the energy test

A search for CP violation in D 0 → π - π + π 0 decays is reported, using pp collision data collected by the LHCb experiment from 2015 to 2018 corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 6 fb - 1 . An unbinned model-independent approach provides sensitivity to local CP violation within the two-dimensional phase space of the decay. The method is validated using the Cabibbo-favoured channel D 0 → K - π + π 0 and background regions of the signal mode. The results are consistent with CP symmetry in this decay.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Search for IceCube Sub-TeV Neutrinos Correlated with Gravitational-wave Events Detected By LIGO/Virgo

The LIGO/Virgo collaboration published the catalogs GWTC-1, GWTC-2.1, and GWTC-3 containing candidate gravitational-wave (GW) events detected during its runs O1, O2, and O3. These GW events can be possible sites of neutrino emission. In this paper, we present a search for neutrino counterparts of 90 GW candidates using IceCube DeepCore, the low-energy infill array of the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. The search is conducted using an unbinned maximum likelihood method, within a time window of 1000 s, and uses the spatial and timing information from the GW events. The neutrinos used for the search have energies ranging from a few GeV to several tens of TeV. We do not find any significant emission of neutrinos, and place upper limits on the flux and the isotropic-equivalent energy emitted in low-energy neutrinos. We also conduct a binomial test to search for source populations potentially contributing to neutrino emission. We report a nondetection of a significant neutrino-source population with this test.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗