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At least 415 records · Page 23

Asteroid Fragmentation Approaches for Modeling Atmospheric Energy Deposition

During asteroid entry, energy is deposited in the atmosphere through thermal ablation and momentum-loss due to aerodynamic drag. Analytic models of asteroid entry and breakup physics are used to compute the energy deposition, which can then be compared against measured light curves and used to estimate ground damage due to airburst events. This work assesses and compares energy deposition results from four existing approaches to asteroid breakup modeling, and presents a new model that combines key elements of those approaches. The existing approaches considered include a liquid drop or "pancake" model where the object is treated as a single deforming body, and a set of discrete fragment models where the object breaks progressively into individual fragments. The new model incorporates both independent fragments and aggregate debris clouds to represent a broader range of fragmentation behaviors and reproduce more detailed light curve features. All five models are used to estimate the energy deposition rate versus altitude for the Chelyabinsk meteor impact, and results are compared with an observationally derived energy deposition curve. Comparisons show that four of the five approaches are able to match the overall observed energy deposition profile, but the features of the combined model are needed to better replicate both the primary and secondary peaks of the Chelyabinsk curve.

Modeling↗

A Machine Learning Bias Correction on Large–Scale Environment of High–Impact Weather Systems in E3SM Atmosphere Model

Large–scale dynamical and thermodynamical processes are common environmental drivers of high–impact weather systems causing extreme weather events. However, such large–scale environmental conditions often display systematic biases in climate simulations, posing challenges to evaluating high–impact weather systems and extreme weather events. In this paper, a machine learning (ML) approach was employed to bias correct the large–scale wind, temperature, and humidity simulated by the atmospheric component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) at ~1° resolution. The usefulness of the ML approach for extreme weather analysis was demonstrated with a focus on three high–impact weather systems, including tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and atmospheric rivers (ARs). We show that the ML model can effectively reduce climate bias in large–scale wind, temperature, and humidity while preserving their responses to imposed climate change perturbations. The bias correction is found to directly improve water vapor transport associated with ARs, and representations of thermodynamical flows associated with ETCs. When the bias–corrected large–scale winds are used to drive a synthetic TC track forecast model over the Atlantic basin, the resulting TC track density agrees better with that of the TC track model driven by observed winds. In addition, the ML model insignificantly interferes with the mean climate change signals of large–scale storm environments as well as the occurrence and intensity of three weather systems. This study suggests that the proposed ML approach can be used to improve the downscaling of extreme weather events by providing more realistic large–scale storm environments simulated by low–resolution climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predictability of weather and climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model: A dynamical systems approach

A dynamical systems approach is used to quantify the instantaneous and time-averaged predictability of a low-order moist general circulation model. Specifically, the effects on predictability of incorporating an active ocean circulation, implementing annual solar forcing, and asynchronously coupling the ocean and atmosphere are evaluated. The predictability and structure of the model attractors is compared using the Lyapunov exponents, the local divergence rates, and the correlation, fractal, and Lyapunov dimensions. The Lyapunov exponents measure the average rate of growth of small perturbations on an attractor, while the local divergence rates quantify phase-spatial variations of predictability. These local rates are exploited to efficiently identify and distinguish subtle differences in predictability among attractors. In addition, the predictability of monthly averaged and yearly averaged states is investigated by using attractor reconstruction techniques.

Nese, Jon M.↗

Atmosphere Models for the Brown Dwarf Gliese 229 B and the Extrasolar Giant Planets

Brown dwarfs inhabit a realm intermediate between the more massive stars and the less massive planets. Their thermal infrared emission is powered by the release of gravitational potential energy as regulated by their atmospheres. Long known only as theoretical constructs. the discovery of the first unimpeachable brown dwarf. Gliese 229 has opened up a new field: the study of brown dwarf atmospheres. The subsequent discoverv of numerous extrasolar giant planets circling nearby stars, further demonstrated the need for a comprehensive modeling effort to understand this new class of jovian atmospheres. Although no spectra are yet available of the new planets, the next generation of groundbased and spacebased telescopes will return such data. Here author report on the effort with Ames collaborator Dr. Christopher McKay to better understand these new atmospheres.

Marley, Mark S.↗

The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Range Reference Atmosphere Model Validation Study and Sensitivity Analysis to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Space Shuttle

NASA's Space Shuttle utilizes atmospheric thermodynamic properties to evaluate structural dynamics and vehicle flight performance impacts by the atmosphere during ascent. Statistical characteristics of atmospheric thermodynamic properties at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) used in Space. Shuttle Vehicle assessments are contained in the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) Database. Database contains tabulations for monthly and annual means (mu), standard deviations (sigma) and skewness of wind and thermodynamic variables. Wind, Thermodynamic, Humidity and Hydrostatic parameters 1 km resolution interval from 0-30 km 2 km resolution interval 30-70 km Multiple revisions of the CCAFS RRA database have been developed since initial RRA published in 1963. 1971, 1983, 2006 Space Shuttle program utilized 1983 version for use in deriving "hot" and "cold" atmospheres, atmospheric density dispersions for use in vehicle certification analyses and selection of atmospheric thermodynamic profiles for use in vehicle ascent design and certification analyses. During STS-114 launch preparations in July 2005 atmospheric density observations between 50-80 kft exceeded density limits used for aerodynamic ascent heating constraints in vehicle certification analyses. Mission specific analyses were conducted and concluded that the density bias resulted in small changes to heating rates and integrated heat loading on the vehicle. In 2001, the Air Force Combat Climatology Center began developing an updated RRA for CCAFS.

Decker, Ryan↗

Influence of systematic radiation differences on the dynamics of a model atmosphere

Numerical experiments were run on the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) nine-level GCM using two different long-wave radiation routines - the Hogan routine and the Wu-Kaplan routine - to determine whether systematic radiation difference is important in the modeling of the general circulation of the atmosphere. The climatologies produced from GCM runs using the different radiation routines were compared for both winter and summer. Systematic differences were found in the mean zonal temperatures, in the location and shape of the zonal west wind maximum, in the strength of the Hadley and Ferrel cells, in the cloud and precipitation distributions, and in the mass distributions. On the basis of comparisons with observations, it was found that the Wu-Kaplan routine had a positive impact or at least made improvements in the right direction in most respects.

Wu, M.-L. C.↗

Hierarchical Testing of a Hybrid Machine Learning‐Physics Global Atmosphere Model

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in capturing synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics, their performance across timescales and under out-of-distribution forcing, such as +3K or +4K uniform-warming forcings, and the sources of biases remain elusive, to establish the model's reliability for Earth science. Here, we design three sets of experiments targeting synoptic-scale phenomena, interannual variability, and out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings. We evaluate the Neural General Circulation Model (NeuralGCM), a hybrid model integrating a dynamical core with ML-based component, against observations and physics-based Earth system models (ESMs). At the synoptic scale, NeuralGCM captures the evolution and propagation of extratropical cyclones with performance comparable to ESMs. At the interannual scale, when forced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, NeuralGCM successfully reproduces associated teleconnection patterns but exhibits deficiencies in capturing nonlinear response. Under out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings, NeuralGCM simulates similar responses in global-average temperature and precipitation and reproduces large-scale tropospheric circulation features similar to those in ESMs. Notable weaknesses include overestimating the tracks and spatial extent of extratropical cyclones, biases in the teleconnected wave train triggered by tropical SST anomalies, and differences in upper-level warming and stratospheric circulation responses to SST warming compared to physics-based ESMs. The causes of these weaknesses were explored. Despite the noted weaknesses, NeuralGCM reproduces responses across experiments reasonably and performs comparably to ESMs. By integrating a dynamical core with ML, NeuralGCM shows potential for developing ML-based ESMs.

global warming↗

Numerical coupling of aerosol emissions, dry removal, and turbulent mixing in the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1) – Part 2: A semi-discrete error analysis framework for assessing coupling schemes

Abstract. Part 1 (Wan et al., 2024) of this study discusses the motivation and empirical evaluation of a revision to the aerosol-related numerical process coupling in the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (EAMv1) to address the previously reported issue of strong sensitivity of the simulated dust aerosol lifetime and dry removal rate to the model's vertical resolution. This paper complements that empirical justification of the revised scheme with a mathematical justification leveraging a semi-discrete analysis framework for assessing the splitting error of process coupling methods. The framework distinguishes the error due to numerical splitting from the error due to the time integration method(s) used for each individual process. Such a distinction results in a framework that provides an intuitive understanding of the causes of the splitting error. The application of this framework to the dust life cycle in EAMv1 confirms (i) that the original EAMv1 scheme artificially strengthens the effect of dry removal processes and (ii) that the revised splitting reduces that artificial strengthening. While the error analysis framework is presented in the context of the dust life cycle in EAMv1, the framework can be broadly leveraged to evaluate process coupling schemes, both in other physical problems and for any number of processes. This framework will be particularly powerful when the various process implementations support a variety of time integration approaches. Whereas traditional local truncation error approaches require separate consideration of each combination of time integration methods, this framework enables evaluation of coupling schemes independent of particular time integration approaches for each process while still allowing for the incorporation of these specific time integration errors if so desired. The framework also explains how the splitting error terms result from (i) the integration of individual processes in isolation from other processes and (ii) the choices of input state and time step size for the isolated integration of processes. Such a perspective has the potential for the rapid development of alternative coupling approaches that utilize knowledge both about the desired accuracy and about the computational costs of individual processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Coupled Soil-Atmosphere Model of H2O2 on Mars

The Viking Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer failed to detect organic compounds on Mars, and both the Viking Labeled Release and the Viking Gas Exchange experiments indicated a reactive soil surface. These results have led to the widespread belief that there are oxidants in the martian soil. Since H2O2 is produced by photochemical processes in the atmosphere of Mars, and has been shown in the laboratory to reproduce closely the Viking LR results, it is a likely candidate for a martian soil oxidant. Here, we report on the results of a coupled soil/atmosphere transport model for H202 on Mars. Upon diffusing into the soil, its concentration is determined by the extent to which it is adsorbed and by the rate at which it is catalytically destroyed. An analytical model for calculating the distribution of H202 in the martian atmosphere and soil is developed. The concentration of H202 in the soil is shown to go to zero at a finite depth, a consequence of the nonlinear soil diffusion equation. The model is parameterized in terms of an unknown quantity, the lifetime of H202 against heterogeneous catalytic destruction in the soil. Calculated concentrations are compared with a H202 concentration of 30 nmoles/cu cm, inferred from the Viking Labeled Release experiment. A significant result of this model is that for a wide range of H202 lifetimes (up to 105 years), the extinction depth was found to be less than 3 m. The maximum possible concentration in the top 4 cm is calculated to be approx. 240 nmoles/cu cm, achieved with lifetimes of greater than 1000 years. Concentrations higher than 30 nmoles/cu cm require lifetimes of greater than 4.3 terrestrial years. For a wide range of H202 lifetimes, it was found that the atmospheric concentration is only weakly coupled with soil loss processes. Losses to the soil become significant only when lifetimes are less than a few hours. If there are depths below which H202 is not transported, it is plausible that organic compounds, protected from an oxidizing environment, may still exist. They would have been deposited by meteors, or be the organic remains of past life.

Bullock, Mark A.↗

Application of Accelerometer Data to Mars Odyssey Aerobraking and Atmospheric Modeling

Aerobraking was an enabling technology for the Mars Odyssey mission even though it involved risk due primarily to the variability of the Mars upper atmosphere. Consequently, numerous analyses based on various data types were performed during operations to reduce these risk and among these data were measurements from spacecraft accelerometers. This paper reports on the use of accelerometer data for determining atmospheric density during Odyssey aerobraking operations. Acceleration was measured along three orthogonal axes, although only data from the component along the axis nominally into the flow was used during operations. For a one second count time, the RMS noise level varied from 0.07 to 0.5 mm/s2 permitting density recovery to between 0.15 and 1.1 kg per cu km or about 2% of the mean density at periapsis during aerobraking. Accelerometer data were analyzed in near real time to provide estimates of density at periapsis, maximum density, density scale height, latitudinal gradient, longitudinal wave variations and location of the polar vortex. Summaries are given of the aerobraking phase of the mission, the accelerometer data analysis methods and operational procedures, some applications to determining thermospheric properties, and some remaining issues on interpretation of the data. Pre-flight estimates of natural variability based on Mars Global Surveyor accelerometer measurements proved reliable in the mid-latitudes, but overestimated the variability inside the polar vortex.

Tolson, R. H.↗

Conceptual aspects of a statistical-dynamical approach to represent landscape subgrid-scale heterogeneities in atmospheric models

A parameterization of land surfaces based on a statistical-dynamical approach is presented. With this approach, the most important characteristics of the soil-plant-atmosphere system that affect the partition of energy (e.g., plant stomatal conductance, soil humidity, and surface roughness) are represented by a pdf rather than by a single 'representative' value. A primary simplified version of this parameterization is used to estimate the land-surface energy fluxes that are produced at the grid scale by various distributions of stomatal conductance under a broad range of environmental conditions. To demonstrate the approach's potential, results are compared with the same fluxes calculated with a big leaf model using the mean stomatal conductance that corresponds to the distributions. Large absolute and relative differences are obtained between the two schemes for many combinations of stomatal conductance pdfs and environmental conditions.

Avissar, Roni↗

Model atmospheres for the early stages of novae in outburst

For the photospheres of classical novae during the early stages of their outbursts, continuum and line blanketed models are presented. The expanding envelopes are characterized by small density gradients that lead to very large geometrical extensions and large temperature differences between inner and outer parts. The spectra show large excesses in the IR and small Balmer jumps which may either be in absorption or emission. For the parameters considered most lines are in absorption if powerlaw density distributions and radiative equilibrium are assumed. The effects of modifications in the temperature structure (e.g., heating from shock fronts) and in the density stratifications as well as changes in the abundances are discussed.

Wehrse, R.↗

Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2007 (Earth-GRAM07)

GRAM is a Fortran software package that can run on a variety of platforms including PC's. GRAM provides values of atmospheric quantities such as temperature, pressure, density, winds, constituents, etc. GRAM99 covers all global locations, all months, and heights from the surface to approx. 1000 km). Dispersions (perturbations) of these parameters are also provided and are spatially and temporally correlated. GRAM can be run in a stand-alone mode or called as a subroutine from a trajectory program. GRAM07 is diagnostic, not prognostic (i.e., it describes the atmosphere, but it does not forecast). The source code is distributed free-of-charge to eligible recipients.

Leslie, Fred W.↗

The Role of Temporal Evolution in Modeling Atmospheric Emissions from Tropical Fires

Fire emissions associated with tropical land use change and maintenance influence atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate. In this study, we explore the effects of representing fire emissions at daily versus monthly resolution in a global composition-climate model. We find that simulations of aerosols are impacted more by the temporal resolution of fire emissions than trace gases such as carbon monoxide or ozone. Daily-resolved datasets concentrate emissions from fire events over shorter time periods and allow them to more realistically interact with model meteorology, reducing how often emissions are concurrently released with precipitation events and in turn increasing peak aerosol concentrations. The magnitude of this effect varies across tropical ecosystem types, ranging from smaller changes in modeling the low intensity, frequent burning typical of savanna ecosystems to larger differences when modeling the short-term, intense fires that characterize deforestation events. The utility of modeling fire emissions at a daily resolution also depends on the application, such as modeling exceedances of particulate matter concentrations over air quality guidelines or simulating regional atmospheric heating patterns.

aerosols↗

A stochastic atmospheric model for remote sensing applications

There are many factors which reduce the accuracy of classification of objects in the satellite remote sensing of Earth's surface. One important factor is the variability in the scattering and absorptive properties of the atmospheric components such as particulates and the variable gases. For multispectral remote sensing of the Earth's surface in the visible and infrared parts of the spectrum the atmospheric particulates are a major source of variability in the received signal. It is difficult to design a sensor which will determine the unknown atmospheric components by remote sensing methods, at least to the accuracy needed for multispectral classification. The problem of spatial and temporal variations in the atmospheric quantities which can affect the measured radiances are examined. A method based upon the stochastic nature of the atmospheric components was developed, and, using actual data the statistical parameters needed for inclusion into a radiometric model was generated. Methods are then described for an improved correction of radiances. These algorithms will then result in a more accurate and consistent classification procedure.

Turner, R. E.↗

Effects of atmospheric modeling errors on determinations of baseline vectors from very long baseline interferometry

An investigation is conducted in order to expose errors in the formula for the elevation angle dependence of the hydrostatic atmospheric propagation delay, called the mapping function. A series of special VLBI experiments that involve a large fraction of group delay data from very low elevation angles are performed. Twenty-two experiments, each 26 hours in duration, were performed using VLBI antennas at Goldstone, California and at Westford, Massachusetts. Elevation angle cutoff tests were used to examine the contribution of these errors to the estimates of the vertical coordinate of site position. This contribution is determined to be about 19 mm. It is also found that, for the spacing of 1-2 months between experiments, the mapping function errors do not exhibit a coherent annual signature, but appear to be random in the long term.

Davis, J. L.↗

Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM99): Short Course

Earth-GRAM is a FORTRAN software package that can run on a variety of platforms including PC's. For any time and location in the Earth's atmosphere, Earth-GRAM provides values of atmospheric quantities such as temperature, pressure, density, winds, constituents, etc.. Dispersions (perturbations) of these parameters are also provided and have realistic correlations, means, and variances - useful for Monte Carlo analysis. Earth-GRAM is driven by observations including a tropospheric database available from the National Climatic Data Center. Although Earth-GRAM can be run in a "stand-alone" mode, many users incorporate it into their trajectory codes. The source code is distributed free-of-charge to eligible recipients.

Leslie, Fred W.↗