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Midcourse navigation using statistical filter theory, manual theodolite, and symbolic computer control applied to manned spacecraft
The 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) is used by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to support space launch weather operations. The 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit to conduct an objective statistics-based analysis of MesoNAM output compared to wind tower mesonet observations and then develop a an operational tool to display the results. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction began running the current version of the MesoNAM in mid-August 2006. The period of record for the dataset was 1 September 2006 - 31 January 2010. The AMU evaluated MesoNAM hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point were compared to the observed values of these parameters from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. The data sets were stratified by model initialization time, month and onshore/offshore flow for each wind tower. Statistics computed included bias (mean difference), standard deviation of the bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and a hypothesis test for bias = O. Twelve wind towers located in close proximity to key launch complexes were used for the statistical analysis with the sensors on the towers positioned at varying heights to include 6 ft, 30 ft, 54 ft, 60 ft, 90 ft, 162 ft, 204 ft and 230 ft depending on the launch vehicle and associated weather launch commit criteria being evaluated. These twelve wind towers support activities for the Space Shuttle (launch and landing), Delta IV, Atlas V and Falcon 9 launch vehicles. For all twelve towers, the results indicate a diurnal signal in the bias of temperature (T) and weaker but discernable diurnal signal in the bias of dewpoint temperature (T(sub d)) in the MesoNAM forecasts. Also, the standard deviation of the bias and RMSE of T, T(sub d), wind speed and wind direction indicated the model error increased with the forecast period all four parameters. The hypothesis testing uses statistics to determine the probability that a given hypothesis is true. The goal of using the hypothesis test was to determine if the model bias of any of the parameters assessed throughout the model forecast period was statistically zero. For th is dataset, if this test produced a value >= -1 .96 or <= 1.96 for a data point, then the bias at that point was effectively zero and the model forecast for that point was considered to have no error. A graphical user interface (GUI) was developed so the 45 WS would have an operational tool at their disposal that would be easy to navigate among the multiple stratifications of information to include tower locations, month, model initialization times, sensor heights and onshore/offshore flow. The AMU developed the GUI using HyperText Markup Language (HTML) so the tool could be used in most popular web browsers with computers running different operating systems such as Microsoft Windows and Linux.
The Northern Hemisphere 700 mb contour heights from 20 N to 70 N for the period 1947-1970 are studied in conjunction with 272 key days, where the daily increase of the Ci index equals or exceeds 1.0. The superposed epoch method is applied from 33 days before to 66 days after the key day for a variety of zonal and meridional indices. It is shown that the 700 mb height difference between 20 N and 55 N increases significantly in winter 4 days following geomagnetic disturbance (in summer a less prominent but statistically significant increase is found 2 days earlier). The effect is most clear in winter in the quadrant 90-175 W and corresponds to a 7% increase in the mean geostrophic westerly flow. The statistical significance of the results is established by applying Student's t-test to the difference of each daily mean from the continuum.
When searching over a large parameter space for anomalies such as events, peaks, objects, or particles, there is a large probability that spurious signals with seemingly high signi ficance will be found. This is known as the look-elsewhere effect and is prevalent throughout cosmology, (astro)particle physics, and beyond. To avoid making false claims of detection, one must account for this effect when assigning the statistical significance of an anomaly. This is typically accomplished by considering the trials factor, which is generally computed numerically via potentially expensive simulations. In this paper we develop a continuous generalization of the Bonferroni and Sidak corrections by applying the Laplace approximation to evaluate the Bayes factor, and in turn relating the trials factor to the prior-to-posterior volume ratio. Here, we use this to define a test statistic whose frequentist properties have a simple interpretation in terms of the global p-value, or statistical significance. We apply this method to various physics-based examples and show it to work well for the full range of p-values, i.e. in both the asymptotic and non-asymptotic regimes. We also show that this method naturally accounts for other model complexities such as additional degrees of freedom, generalizing Wilks' theorem. This provides a fast way to quantify statistical significance in light of the look-elsewhere effect, without resorting to expensive simulations.
A unified N-body and statistical treatment of stellar dynamics is developed and applied to the late stages of core collapse and early stages of post collapse evolution in globular clusters. A 'hybrid' computer code is joined to a direct N-body code which is used to calculate exactly the behavior of particles in the inner spatial region, and the combination is used to follow particles statistically in the outer spatial region. A transition zone allows the exchange of particles and energy between the two regions. The main application results include: formation of a hard central binary system, reversal of core collapse and expansion due to the heat input from this binary, ejection of the binary from the core, and recollapse of the core; density profiles that form a one-parameter sequence during the core oscillations; and indications that these oscillations will eventually cease.
Context. Small-scale challenges to ΛCDM cosmology require a deeper understanding of dark matter physics. Aims. This paper aims to develop the maximum entropy distributions for dark matter particle velocity (denoted by X ), speed (denoted by Z ), and energy (denoted by E ) that are especially relevant on small scales where system approaches full virialization. Methods. For systems involving long-range interactions, a spectrum of halos of different sizes is required to form to maximize system entropy. While the velocity in halos can be Gaussian, the velocity distribution throughout the entire system, involving all halos of different sizes, is non-Gaussian. With the virial theorem for mechanical equilibrium, we applied the maximum entropy principle to the statistical equilibrium of entire system, such that the maximum entropy distribution of velocity (the X distribution) could be analytically derived. The halo mass function was not required in this formulation, but it did indeed result from the maximum entropy. Results. The predicted X distribution involves a shape parameter α and a velocity scale, v 0 . The shape parameter α reflects the nature of force ( α → 0 for long-range force or α → ∞ for short-range force). Therefore, the distribution approaches Laplacian with α → 0 and Gaussian with α → ∞. For an intermediate value of α , the distribution naturally exhibits a Gaussian core for v ≪ v 0 and exponential wings for v ≫ v 0 , as confirmed by N -body simulations. From this distribution, the mean particle energy of all dark matter particles with a given speed, v , follows a parabolic scaling for low speeds (∝ v 2 for v ≪ v 0 in halo core region, i.e., “Newtonian”) and a linear scaling for high speeds (∝ v for v ≫ v 0 in halo outskirt, i.e., exhibiting “non-Newtonian” behavior due to long-range gravity). We compared our results against N -body simulations and found a good agreement.
While Bayesian inference techniques are standard in cosmological analyses, it is common to interpret resulting parameter constraints with a frequentist intuition. This intuition can fail, for example, when marginalizing high-dimensional parameter spaces onto subsets of parameters, because of what has come to be known as projection effects or prior volume effects. We present the method of informed total-error-minimizing (ITEM) priors to address this problem. An ITEM prior is a prior distribution on a set of nuisance parameters, such as those describing astrophysical or calibration systematics, intended to enforce the validity of a frequentist interpretation of the posterior constraints derived for a set of target parameters (e.g., cosmological parameters). Our method works as follows. For a set of plausible nuisance realizations, we generate target parameter posteriors using several different candidate priors for the nuisance parameters. We reject candidate priors that do not accomplish the minimum requirements of bias (of point estimates) and coverage (of confidence regions among a set of noisy realizations of the data) for the target parameters on one or more of the plausible nuisance realizations. Of the priors that survive this cut, we select the ITEM prior as the one that minimizes the total error of the marginalized posteriors of the target parameters. As a proof of concept, we applied our method to the density split statistics measured in Dark Energy Survey Year 1 data. We demonstrate that the ITEM priors substantially reduce prior volume effects that otherwise arise and that they allow for sharpened yet robust constraints on the parameters of interest.
Dynamic shockless compression experiments provide the ability to explore material behavior at extreme pressures but relatively low temperatures. Typically, the data from these types of experiments are interpreted through an analytic method called Lagrangian analysis. Here, in this work, alternative analysis methods are explored using modern statistical methods. Specifically, Bayesian model calibration is applied to a new set of platinum data shocklessly compressed to 570 GPa. Several platinum equation-of-state models are evaluated, including traditional parametric forms as well as a novel non-parametric model concept. The results are compared to those in Paper I obtained by inverse Lagrangian analysis. The comparisons suggest that Bayesian calibration is not only a viable framework for precise quantification of the compression path, but also reveals insights pertaining to trade-offs surrounding model form selection, sensitivities of the relevant experimental uncertainties, and assumptions and limitations within Lagrangian analysis. The non-parametric model method, in particular, is found to give precise unbiased results and is expected to be useful over a wide range of applications. The calibration results in estimates of the platinum principal isentrope over the full range of experimental pressures to a standard error of 1.6%, which extends the results from Paper I while maintaining the high precision required for the platinum pressure standard.
Here in this paper we lay the groundwork for a robust cross-device comparison of data-driven disruption prediction algorithms on DIII-D and JET tokamaks. In order to consistently carry on a comparative analysis, we define physics-based indicators of disruption precursors based on temperature, density, and radiation profiles that are currently not used in many other machine learning predictors for DIII-D data. These profile-based indicators are shown to well-describe impurity accumulation events in both DIII-D and JET discharges that eventually disrupt. The univariate analysis of the features used as input signals in the data-driven algorithms applied on the data of both tokamaks statistically highlights the differences in the dominant disruption precursors. JET with its ITER-like wall is more prone to impurity accumulation events, while DIII-D is more subject to edge-cooling mechanisms that destabilize dangerous magnetohydrodynamic modes. Even though the analyzed data sets are characterized by such intrinsic differences, we show through a few examples that the inclusion of physics-based disruption markers in data-driven algorithms is a promising path toward the realization of a uniform framework to predict and interpret disruptive scenarios across different tokamaks. As long as the destabilizing precursors are diagnosed in a device-independent way, the knowledge that data-driven algorithms learn on one device can be re-used to explain a disruptive behavior on another device.
ABSTRACT The structure and star formation activity of a molecular cloud are fundamentally linked to its internal turbulence. However, accurately measuring the turbulent velocity dispersion is challenging due to projection effects and observational limitations, such as telescope resolution, particularly for clouds that include non-turbulent motions, such as large-scale rotation. Here, we develop a new method to recover the 3D turbulent velocity dispersion (σv,3D) from position–position–velocity (PPV) data. We simulate a rotating, turbulent, collapsing molecular cloud, and compare its intrinsic σv,3D with three different measures of the velocity dispersion accessible in PPV space: (1) the spatial mean of the 2nd-moment map, σi, (2) the standard deviation of the gradient/rotation-corrected 1st-moment map, σ(c − grad), and (3) a combination of (1) and (2), called the ‘gradient-corrected parent velocity dispersion’, $\sigma _{\mathrm{(p}-\mathrm{grad)}}=(\sigma _{\mathrm{i}}^2+\sigma _{(\mathrm{c}-\mathrm{grad)}}^2)^{1/2}$. We show that the gradient correction is crucial in order to recover purely turbulent motions of the cloud, independent of the orientation of the cloud with respect to the line of sight. We find that with a suitable correction factor and appropriate filters applied to the moment maps, all three statistics can be used to recover σv,3D, with method 3 being the most robust and reliable. We determine the correction factor as a function of the telescope beam size for different levels of cloud rotation, and find that for a beam full width at half-maximum f and cloud radius R, the 3D turbulent velocity dispersion can best be recovered from the gradient-corrected parent velocity dispersion via $\sigma _{v,\mathrm{3D}}= \left[(-0.29\pm 0.26)\, f/R + 1.93 \pm 0.15\right] \sigma _{\mathrm{(p}-\mathrm{grad)}}$ for f/R < 1, independent of the level of cloud rotation or LOS orientation.
ABSTRACT The detailed modelling of stellar oscillations is a powerful approach to characterizing stars. However, poor treatment of systematics in theoretical models leads to misinterpretations of stars. Here, we propose a more principled statistical treatment for the systematics to be applied to fitting individual mode frequencies with a typical stellar model grid. We introduce a correlated noise model based on a Gaussian process (GP) kernel to describe the systematics given that mode frequency systematics are expected to be highly correlated. We show that tuning the GP kernel can reproduce general features of frequency variations for changing model input physics and fundamental parameters. Fits with the correlated noise model better recover stellar parameters than traditional methods that either ignore the systematics or treat them as uncorrelated noise.
This package contains data, outputs, equations, and R scripts for analyses for manuscript entitled "Hot droughts in the Amazon: A window to a future hypertropical climate" by J. Chambers et al., in particular it contains statistical models and analyses for the INPA BIONTE tree mortality study. The Models folder contains details for all statistical models in PDF files. The Scripts folder contains the R scripts for Bayesian Hierarchical Models (two text files) and SEMs (one text file) are separate and reasonably annotated. All data associated with these scripts are in the data folder. The Data folder contains two of the three CSV files used for the analyses and are called by the R scripts. Two of them are part of published datasets (`BIONTE_mortality-rates.csv` from Lima et al. 2024, DOI:10.15486/ngt/1898910 and `SPEI.csv` from Pastorello et al. 2023 DOI:10.15486/ngt/1958257) and also provided in this package for convenience (please see the corresponding datasets for usage and citation terms). The third dataset (`BIONTE_gapfilled_wd.csv`) contains sensitive information and can be obtained by contacting the manuscript lead author. The Outputs folder contains the two output files that provide extra information about the analyses. The file `figuresFeb2025d.pdf` contains all the figures from the manuscript - captions are in the manuscript. The file `ChambersMS.pdf` contains primary results from Bayesian statistical models, regression analyses, and validation steps applied to the tree mortality data from the INPA experiments. The document includes visual summaries, model diagnostics, and leave-one-out (LOO) validation results. A breakdown of file contents can be found in the README file that is part of this package.
This project applies methods in Bayesian inference and modern statistical methods to quantify the value of new experimental data, in the form of new or modified diagnostic configurations and/or experiment designs. We demonstrate experiment design methods that can be used to identify the highest priority diagnostic improvements or experimental data to obtain in order to reduce uncertainties on critical inferred experimental quantities and select the best course of action to distinguish between competing physical models. Bayesian statistics and information theory provide the foundation for developing the necessary metrics, using two high impact experimental platforms on Z as exemplars to develop and illustrate the technique. We emphasize that the general methodology is extensible to new diagnostics (provided synthetic models are available), as well as additional platforms. We also discuss initial scoping of additional applications that began development in the last year of this LDRD.
The LandScan Myriad World Baseline (MWB) method produces global, residential (nighttime/home-location) gridded geodemographic estimates based on 5-year age/gender cohorts—at 30-arcsecond (≈1 km) resolution. MWB is designed to fill gaps where detailed, georeferenced survey data (e.g., Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)) are missing or outdated, and to provide a baseline that can support human security analysis, including consequence assessment, “patterns of life” modeling, and scenario-based population futures. MWB’s workflow spatializes household-level age/gender characteristics from the GLOPOP-S dataset by conflating household and gridded expected relative wealth adapted from Global Gridded Relative Deprivation Index (GRDI), then adjusts them to a target year of interest. Age/gender estimates are then applied to harmonize lowest-administrative-level statistics with LandScan residential counts, yielding final geodemographic estimates. Two validation case studies are presented: Ghana (2021) and Tokyo/Kanagawa, Japan (2020), illustrating spatial variability in demographic cohorts and comparing MWB outputs to official gridded statistics. Results show close overall alignment relative to validation criteria including population pyramids and age-dependency ratios.
Dynamic structural analysis, statistical analysis, and Rayleigh-Ritz methods applied to Skylab and Apollo/Saturn problems including pogo effects, vibration damping, and noise reduction
Investigation of the effects of sensor spatial resolution on estimating the amount of clouds covering the earth by simulating various cloud distributions and sizes, and measuring the known cloud amount with resolution of different sizes using a cloud-no cloud threshold technique often applied in automatic data processing. Cloud amount statistics have been tabulated for a three-orders-of-magnitude range in the ratio (R) of areal cloud size to areal resolution size for seven cloud amounts between 6 and 90%. Three different cloud patterns were used. These were 1) a regularly spaced pattern of homogeneous dots arranged in rows and columns (to simulate cloud streets), 2) a randomly spaced pattern of the same dots (to simulate randomly oriented cumulus clouds), and 3) a heterogeneous cloud size distribution irregularly spaced (to simulate a view of different cloud types and sizes). Two cloud amount estimation techniques were tested. Cloud amounts of 100% (method 1) and 50% (method 2) were assigned to partially filled resolution elements. Using criteria applicable to some studies carried out in the past, it is shown that cloud amount estimations can be in error by as much as 86 and 38%, respectively, for the two methods. Nomograms have been developed which subtantially improve the estimate of the true cloud cover for R less than 100, provided that R can be determined.
A new procedure for measuring effective defect density takes time-dependent primary dielectric breakdown in MOS devices into account. A time-varying breakdown probability is obtained by applying a constant field stress to a statistically sufficient number of MOS capacitors. Effective defects are assumed distributed randomly in two dimensions, hence indistinguishable. The effective defect density is found to vary with oxide thickness; tentative explanations are ventured to account for this (interfacial tensile stress, ion patching enhanced by local trapping, breakdown in the form of filamentary discharges with release of stored electrostatic energy).
The geometry of large-scale structures in the turbulent mixing layer of a moderate Reynolds number jet is deduced from measurements of the fluctuating pressure in the hydrodynamic near field. The structures are rings of concentrated vorticity that distort with downstream distance until statistical axisymmetry disappears. The rings are spaced quasi-periodically and coalesce with each other, producing larger spacings. Statistical and flow-visualization techniques are applied to free and forced jets over a range of Reynolds numbers from 5000 to 50,000 to demonstrate that rings of a given spacing do not coalesce with each other until they are far enough downstream that the local mixing layer has attained some critical thickness which scales with the wavelength of the vortex pair. Wave dispersion is evaluated as a plausible mechanism for localizing the coalescences. The central feature of the model is the observation that a shear layer is dispersive to wavelengths much longer than its thickness and nondispersive to shorter waves.