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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Architecture-Aware Models of AI Engines for High-Performance Matrix Matrix Multiplication

The AI Engine (AIE) architecture, available in systems from mobile SoCs to server-class FPGAs, aims to efficiently execute AI/ML tasks through a two-dimensional array of compute tiles. Previous work on AIEs has explored different approaches to mapping computation across spatial arrays, but the compute kernel running on each tile has not been the focus. Additionally, the AIE-ML architecture introduces memory tiles and omits programmable logic, requiring new approaches to staging and moving data throughout the array. In this work we update analytical models developed for CPUs to produce the design of high performance kernels while introducing new model considerations such as memory structure, throughput, and latency as required by the AIE hardware. We evaluate our models by developing AIE-ML kernels for matrix multiplication in low-precision data types showing performance up to 95% of compute peak for the kernel when data resides in local memory and above 90% of compute peak when data resides in main memory.

Binder, Elliott D. [Carnegie Mellon University, Pi↗
DOE OSTI2024

A generalized analytical energy balance model for evaluating agglomeration from a binary collision of wet particles

Agglomeration of wet particles, i.e., particles coated with a thin liquid layer, is a common phenomenon in many processes like fluidized bed combustion of low rank fuels. The availability of an agglomeration model that can evaluate the outcome of a binary collision between wet particles differing in solid particle properties, liquid layer thicknesses, and initial collision (impact) speeds is essential for obtaining a comprehensive understanding on the existing processes experiencing wet particle agglomeration or for a successful development of new processes with high chances of wet particle agglomeration. This study presents a generalized agglomeration model on the basis of energy conservation before and after collision when colliding wet particles may differ in solid particle properties, liquid layer thicknesses, and impact speeds. The model was established based on the approximate values of energy losses that may happen during the collision. It incorporates body forces, solid-solid contacting, liquid capillary, and viscous contributions, as well as the liquid bridge volume effect. Predictions of the new model for collision outcomes of identical wet particles were like those from an analytical energy balance model developed recently by the group for identical wet particles. We also validated the new model by experimental data from literature. The results of a collision direction analysis indicated that the direction often has a minimal effect on the collision outcome in many practical scenarios. The results of Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses with the new model revealed that proper estimations of impact speed, under capillary limiting conditions, and thickness of coating layers and asperity heights, under viscous limiting conditions, are critical for the realistic prediction of collision outcomes at impact speeds close to critical impact speed, i.e., the minimum particle speed required for the particles to rebound.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Weak lensing combined with the kinetic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect: a study of baryonic feedback

ABSTRACT Extracting precise cosmology from weak lensing surveys requires modelling the non-linear matter power spectrum, which is suppressed at small scales due to baryonic feedback processes. However, hydrodynamical galaxy formation simulations make widely varying predictions for the amplitude and extent of this effect. We use measurements of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 weak lensing (WL) and Atacama Cosmology Telescope DR5 kinematic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (kSZ) to jointly constrain cosmological and astrophysical baryonic feedback parameters using a flexible analytical model, ‘baryonification’. First, using WL only, we compare the $S_8$ constraints using baryonification to a simulation-calibrated halo model, a simulation-based emulator model, and the approach of discarding WL measurements on small angular scales. We find that model flexibility can shift the value of $S_8$ and degrade the uncertainty. The kSZ provides additional constraints on the astrophysical parameters, with the joint WL + kSZ analysis constraining $S_8=0.823^{+0.019}_{-0.020}$. We measure the suppression of the non-linear matter power spectrum using WL + kSZ and constrain a mean feedback scenario that is more extreme than the predictions from most hydrodynamical simulations. We constrain the baryon fractions and the gas mass fractions and find them to be generally lower than inferred from X-ray observations and simulation predictions. We conclude that the WL + kSZ measurements provide a new and complementary benchmark for building a coherent picture of the impact of gas around galaxies across observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overview of ASDEX upgrade results in view of ITER and DEMO

Experiments on ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) in 2021 and 2022 have addressed a number of critical issues for ITER and EU DEMO. A major objective of the AUG programme is to shed light on the underlying physics of confinement, stability, and plasma exhaust in order to allow reliable extrapolation of results obtained on present day machines to these reactor-grade devices. Concerning pedestal physics, the mitigation of edge localised modes (ELMs) using resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) was found to be consistent with a reduction of the linear peeling-ballooning stability threshold due to the helical deformation of the plasma. Conversely, ELM suppression by RMPs is ascribed to an increased pedestal transport that keeps the plasma away from this boundary. Candidates for this increased transport are locally enhanced turbulence and a locked magnetic island in the pedestal. The enhanced D-alpha (EDA) and quasi-continuous exhaust (QCE) regimes have been established as promising ELM-free scenarios. Here, the pressure gradient at the foot of the H-mode pedestal is reduced by a quasi-coherent mode, consistent with violation of the high-n ballooning mode stability limit there. This is suggestive that the EDA and QCE regimes have a common underlying physics origin. In the area of transport physics, full radius models for both L- and H-modes have been developed. These models predict energy confinement in AUG better than the commonly used global scaling laws, representing a large step towards the goal of predictive capability. A new momentum transport analysis framework has been developed that provides access to the intrinsic torque in the plasma core. In the field of exhaust, the X-Point Radiator (XPR), a cold and dense plasma region on closed flux surfaces close to the X-point, was described by an analytical model that provides an understanding of its formation as well as its stability, i.e., the conditions under which it transitions into a deleterious MARFE with the potential to result in a disruptive termination. With the XPR close to the divertor target, a new detached divertor concept, the compact radiative divertor, was developed. Here, the exhaust power is radiated before reaching the target, allowing close proximity of the X-point to the target. No limitations by the shallow field line angle due to the large flux expansion were observed, and sufficient compression of neutral density was demonstrated. With respect to the pumping of non-recycling impurities, the divertor enrichment was found to mainly depend on the ionisation energy of the impurity under consideration. In the area of MHD physics, analysis of the hot plasma core motion in sawtooth crashes showed good agreement with nonlinear 2-fluid simulations. This indicates that the fast reconnection observed in these events is adequately described including the pressure gradient and the electron inertia in the parallel Ohm’s law. Concerning disruption physics, a shattered pellet injection system was installed in collaboration with the ITER International Organisation. Thanks to the ability to vary the shard size distribution independently of the injection velocity, as well as its impurity admixture, it was possible to tailor the current quench rate, which is an important requirement for future large devices such as ITER. Progress was also made modelling the force reduction of VDEs induced by massive gas injection on AUG. The H-mode density limit was characterised in terms of safe operational space with a newly developed active feedback control method that allowed the stability boundary to be probed several times within a single discharge without inducing a disruptive termination. Regarding integrated operation scenarios, the role of density peaking in the confinement of the ITER baseline scenario (high plasma current) was clarified. The usual energy confinement scaling ITER98(p,y) does not capture this effect, but the more recent H20 scaling does, highlighting again the importance of developing adequate physics based models. Advanced tokamak scenarios, aiming at large non-inductive current fraction due to non-standard profiles of the safety factor in combination with high normalised plasma pressure were studied with a focus on their access conditions. A method to guide the approach of the targeted safety factor profiles was developed, and the conditions for achieving good confinement were clarified. Based on this, two types of advanced scenarios (‘hybrid’ and ‘elevated’

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Capacitance–voltage modeling of mid-wavelength infrared nBn detectors

Capacitance–voltage measurements are a powerful technique to determine doping profiles of semiconductor pn junctions and Schottky barrier diodes. The measurements were recently extended to III-V-based mid-wavelength nBn infrared detectors, and absorber doping densities have been extracted using the widely accepted Schottky approximation, where the potential drop across the device is assumed to be across the depleting absorber layer. However, this approach is limited to when the absorber region of the nBn is under high reverse bias and thus is only able to extract the absorber region doping profile. Here, we introduce a semi-analytical model that is capable of extracting barrier dopant polarity, doping concentration, and thickness, as well as contact and absorber layer doping concentrations, all from a capacitance–voltage measurement. Rather than solely considering the potential drop across the depleting layers, it considers the potential drop across the accumulating layer as well. This negative charge accumulation occurs for the contact and absorber layers in the case of reverse and forward biases, respectively. This allows for a single model to be applied to a capacitance–voltage curve at forward and reverse biases and it can provide regions of bias where the absorber transitions from depletion to accumulation. We compare the agreement of the semianalytical model with modeling results from commercially available finite element method software and experimental capacitance–voltage data. Finally, we show that the method is consistent with the Schottky approximation of extracting absorber doping densities at high reverse bias and discuss the model's limitations.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Emergence of a nocturnal low-level jet from a broad baroclinic zone

An analytical model is presented for the generation of a Blackadar-like nocturnal low-level jet in a broad baroclinic zone. The flow is forced from below (flat ground) by a surface buoyancy gradient and from above (free atmosphere) by a constant pressure gradient force. Diurnally-varying mixing coefficients are specified to increase abruptly at sunrise and decrease abruptly at sunset. With attention restricted to a surface buoyancy that varies linearly with a horizontal coordinate, the Boussinesq-approximated equations of motion, thermal energy, and mass conservation reduce to a system of one-dimensional equations that can be solved analytically. Sensitivity tests with southerly jets suggest that (i) stronger jets are associated with larger decreases of the eddy viscosity at sunset (as in Blackadar theory), (ii) the nighttime surface buoyancy gradient has little impact on jet strength, and (iii) for pure baroclinic forcing (no free-atmosphere geostrophic wind), the nighttime eddy diffusivity has little impact on jet strength, but the daytime eddy diffusivity is very important and has a larger impact than the daytime eddy viscosity. The model was applied to a jet that developed in fair weather conditions over the Great Plains from southern Texas to northern South Dakota on 1 May 2020. The ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) for the afternoon prior to jet formation showed that a broad north-south-oriented baroclinic zone covered much of the region. The peak model-predicted winds were in good agreement with ERA5 winds and lidar data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) central facility in north-central Oklahoma.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Non-unimodal and non-concave relationships in the network Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram caused by hierarchical streets

Unimodal, concave relationships between average network productivity and accumulation or density aggregated across spatially compact regions of urban networks—so called network Macroscopic Fundamental Diagrams (MFDs)—have recently been shown to exist on homogeneous street networks. When present, MFD relationships facilitate the modeling of traffic congestion at a regional level and have led to the development of various regional traffic control strategies. However, real street networks are not homogeneous—they generally have a hierarchical structure where some streets (e.g., arterials) promote higher mobility than others (e.g., local roads). Here, this paper examines how the presence of hierarchical roadway structures may potentially cause non-unimodal patterns in a network's MFD. These are observed using three types of tools: analytical models of simple network structures, simulations of various idealized roadway networks, and empirical data. The impacts of street hierarchy depend on how vehicles use different roadway types to move within the network; i.e., their routing strategy. The findings suggest that the presence of roadway hierarchies may lead to MFDs that have non-unimodal or non-concave patterns on the free-flow branch when vehicles route themselves according to user equilibrium principles, which is closest to what would be observed in realistic situations. Such patterns are contrary to what is traditionally assumed in most MFD-based modeling frameworks. However, the unimodal and concave MFD should be expected under system optimal routing conditions that maximize network productivity for a given traffic state.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Testing Rod Seal Leakage of a 700 HP Reciprocating Compressor

Methane emissions from reciprocating compressors in the U.S. natural gas industry account for over 72.4 Bcf per year according to a 2006 statement by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Methane also has a global warming potential 50 times greater than carbon monoxide. Reciprocating compressors are the machinery type with the highest contribution to methane emissions at natural gas transmissions stations. The largest contributing factor comes from the sealing components in the packing components around the piston rod. SwRI, therefore, designed and setup a test loop to perform baseline packing leakage measurements on a four stage 700 HP JGT/4 compressor. The goal was to improve upon current packing leakage models and to compare new seals vs. used seals. The test loop design is described including the limits of operation. The Data Acquisition System (DAQ), including data measurements, is also fully described. The project shows the results of the commissioning process that verified the operation of all the components. Once the loop was commissioned, SwRI performed baseline packing leakage for multiple pressure ratios on each of the four stages of the compressor. The data was collected to develop an analytical model of the packing leakage. Finally, similar testing was performed after replacing the typical rod seal packing with used packing. The used packing leakage was compared to the baseline packing leakage.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation of a Tapered Impact Damper for Traffic Signal Structure Vibrations Using the Method of Harmonic Balance

Significant vibration amplitudes and cycles can be produced when traffic signal structures with low inherent damping are excited near one of their natural frequencies. For the mitigation of wind-induced vibrations, dynamic vibration absorbers coupled to the structure are often used. Here, this research investigates the performance of a tapered impact damper, consisting of a hanging spring-mass oscillator inside a housing capable of reducing vibration amplitude over a broader frequency range than the conventional tuned mass damper. A nonlinear, two degree-of-freedom model is developed with coordinates representing the traffic structure and the tapered impact damper. This research focuses on the application of the harmonic balance method to approximate the periodic solutions of the nonlinear equations to compute the nonlinear dynamics of the damped traffic signal structure. After designing and manufacturing a tapered impact damper, the traffic signal structure is tested with and without the damper using free vibration snapback tests. The experimental frequency and damping backbone curves are used to validate the analytical model, and the effectiveness of the damper is discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved modeling of detector response effects in phonon-based crystal detectors used for dark matter searches

Various dark matter search experiments employ phonon-based crystal detectors operated at cryogenic temperatures. Some of these detectors, including certain silicon detectors used by the SuperCDMS Collaboration, are able to achieve single-charge sensitivity when a voltage bias is applied across the detector. The total amount of phonon energy measured by such a detector is proportional to the number of electron-hole pairs created by the interaction. However, crystal impurities and surface effects can cause propagating charges to either become trapped inside the crystal or create additional unpaired charges, producing non-quantized measured energy as a result. A new analytical model for describing these detector response effects in phonon-based crystal detectors is presented. This model improves upon previous versions by demonstrating how the detector response, and thus the measured energy spectrum, is expected to differ depending on the source of events. Finally, we use this model to extract detector response parameters for SuperCDMS HVeV detectors, and illustrate how this robust modelling can help statistically discriminate between sources of events in order to improve the sensitivity of dark matter search experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mesoscale modeling of microstructure-dependent thermal conductivity in U-Zr fuels

In uranium-zirconium (U-Zr) based metallic fuels, different phases can form at different compositions and temperatures. Typically, lamellar δ-UZr 2 and α-U phases are the dominant microstructures in U-rich U-Zr alloys at temperatures below 880 K. In this work, a finite element method based mesoscale modeling technique is used to calculate the effective thermal conductivities of such heterogeneous microstructures, using the thermal conductivities of two individual phases and their interphase thermal resistance (Kapitza resistance) as input parameters. The Kapitza resistance between δ-UZr 2 and α-U is determined at different temperatures, which shows an approximately T 3 dependence in the temperature range between 300 and 800 K. In addition, the Kapitza resistance exhibits a strong dependence on the aspect ratio of the δ-UZr 2 phase. Further, an analytical model is therefore developed to quantify the effects of both temperature and δ-UZr 2 aspect ratio on the Kapitza resistance. Using this newly developed Kapitza resistance model, the effective thermal conductivities of a number of δ-UZr 2 + α-U heterogeneous microstructures in U-Zr alloys, including non-lamellar microstructures, can be estimated accurately.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analytical and EZmock covariance validation for the DESI 2024 results

The estimation of uncertainties in cosmological parameters is an important challenge in Large-Scale-Structure (LSS) analyses. For standard analyses such as Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and Full-Shape two approaches are usually considered. First: analytical estimates of the covariance matrix use Gaussian approximations and (nonlinear) clustering measurements to estimate the matrix, which allows a relatively fast and computationally cheap way to generate matrices that adapt to an arbitrary clustering measurement. On the other hand, sample covariances are an empirical estimate of the matrix based on an ensemble of clustering measurements from fast and approximate simulations. While more computationally expensive due to the large amount of simulations and volume required, these allow us to take into account systematics that are impossible to model analytically. In this work we compare these two approaches in order to enable DESI's key analyses. We find that the configuration space analytical estimate performs satisfactorily in BAO analyses and its flexibility in terms of input clustering makes it the fiducial choice for DESI's 2024 BAO analysis. On the contrary, the analytical computation of the covariance matrix in Fourier space does not reproduce the expected measurements in terms of Full-Shape analyses, which motivates the use of a corrected mock covariance for DESI's 2024 Full Shape analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Eulerian thermo-mechanical simulations of heterogeneous solid propellants using an approximate projection method

We present a mathematical model that describes thermo-mechanical deformations and thermal gradients on the unsteady burning of a heterogeneous solid propellant. A scaling study shows that the deformations in solid at combustion timescales can be treated as quasi-static. The resulting thermo-mechanical formulation is formulated on a Cartesian grid and makes use of a weak form of Chorin-type projection method to deal with large difference in shear modulus of constituent materials. Further, a one-dimensional verification study is carried out by comparing numerical simulations with those of an analytical model. In addition, convergence studies for a two-dimensional propellant sandwich configuration are presented for the stress, velocity, and reference map components. Finally, simulations are carried out for a two-dimensional random propellant pack and the time-averaged burn rate and strains are reported.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Magnetic-Core/Gold-Shell Nanoparticles for the Detection of Hydrophobic Chemical Contaminants

Magnetic-core/gold-shell nanoparticles (MAuNPs) are of interest for enabling rapid and portable detection of trace adulterants in complex media. Gold coating provides biocompatibility and facile functionalization, and a magnetic core affords analyte concentration and controlled deposition onto substrates for surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy. Iron oxide cores were synthesized and coated with gold by reduction of HAuCl4 by NH2OH. MAuNPs were grafted with polyethylene glycol (PEG) and/or functionalized with 4-mercaptobenzoic acid (4-MBA) and examined using a variety of microscopic, spectroscopic, magnetometric, and scattering techniques. For MAuNPs grafted with both PEG and 4-MBA, the order in which they were grafted impacted not only the graft density of the individual ligands, but also the overall graft density. Significant Raman signal enhancement of the model analyte, 4-MBA, was observed. This enhancement demonstrates the functionality of MAuNPs in direct detection of trace contaminants. The magnetic deposition rate of MAuNPs in chloroform and water was explored. The presence of 4-MBA slowed the mass deposition rate, and it was postulated that the rate disparity originated from differing NP-substrate surface interactions. These findings emphasize the importance of ligand choice in reference to the medium, target analyte, and substrate material, as well as functionalization procedure in the design of similar sensing platforms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rayleigh–Taylor and Richtmyer–Meshkov instabilities: A journey through scales

Hydrodynamic instabilities such as Rayleigh–Taylor (RT) and Richtmyer–Meshkov (RM) instabilities usually appear in conjunction with the Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH) instability and are found in many natural phenomena and engineering applications. They frequently result in turbulent mixing, which has a major impact on the overall flow development and other effective material properties. This can either be a desired outcome, an unwelcome side effect, or just an unavoidable consequence, but must in all cases be characterized in any model. The RT instability occurs at an interface between different fluids, when the light fluid is accelerated into the heavy. The RM instability may be considered a special case of the RT instability, when the acceleration provided is impulsive in nature such as that resulting from a shock wave. Here in this pedagogical review, we provide an extensive survey of the applications and examples where such instabilities play a central role. First, fundamental aspects of the instabilities are reviewed including the underlying flow physics at different stages of development, followed by an overview of analytical models describing the linear, nonlinear and fully turbulent stages. RT and RM instabilities pose special challenges to numerical modeling, due to the requirement that the sharp interface separating the fluids be captured with fidelity. These challenges are discussed at length here, followed by a summary of the significant progress in recent years in addressing them. Examples of the pivotal roles played by the instabilities in applications are given in the context of solar prominences, ionospheric flows in space, supernovae, inertial fusion and pulsed-power experiments, pulsed detonation engines and Scramjets. Progress in our understanding of special cases of RT/RM instabilities is reviewed, including the effects of material strength, chemical reactions, magnetic fields, as well as the roles the instabilities play in ejecta formation and transport, and explosively expanding flows. The article is addressed to a broad audience, but with particular attention to graduate students and researchers who are interested in the state-of-the-art in our understanding of the instabilities and the unique issues they present in the applications in which they are prominent.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

TSDC: Transportation Secure Data Center: Real-World Data for Planning, Modeling, and Analysis

The Transportation Secure Data Center is a centralized repository for high-resolution transportation data from hundreds of travel and transit surveys and studies. It makes vital transportation data broadly available to users while preserving the privacy of survey participants. It houses surveys and studies conducted by state departments of transportation, metropolitan planning organizations, transit agencies, cities, and other public agencies. Meanwhile, the Livewire Data Platform empowers research, industry, and academic partners to easily and securely preserve, maintain, share, discover, and gain access to transportation and mobility data. Livewire accommodates a range of datasets, including behavioral, experimental, model, analytical, and raw data at the vehicle, traveler, and system levels. Datasets support mobility research and planning spanning urban science, connected and automated vehicles, fueling and charging infrastructure, mobility decision science, multimodal transportation, vehicle efficiency, and more.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Viscoelastic necking dynamics between attractive microgels

Hypothesis: Microgels can deform and interpenetrate and display colloid/polymer duality. The effective interaction of microgels in the collapsed state is governed by the interplay of polymer–solvent interfacial tension and bulk elasticity. A connecting neck is shown to mediate microgel interaction, but its temporal evolution has not been addressed. Here we hypothesize that the necking dynamics of attractive microgels exhibits liquid-like or solid-like behavior over different time and length scales. Experiments: We simulate the merging and pinching of attractive microgels with different crosslinking densities in explicit solvent using dissipative particle dynamics. The temporal coalescence dynamics of microgels is investigated and compared with simple liquid and polymeric droplets. We model the neck growth on long time scales using Maxwell model of polymer relaxation and compare the theoretical prediction with simulation data. The mechanical strength of the neck is characterized systematically via simulated pinch-off of microgels by steered molecular dynamics. Findings: We evidence a crossover in the coalescence dynamics reflecting the viscoelastic signature of microgels. In contrast to the common knowledge that viscoelastic materials respond elastically on short time scales, the early expansion of the microgel neck exhibits a linear behavior, similar to the viscous coalescence of liquid droplets. However, the late regime with arrested dynamics resembles sintering of solid particles. Through an analytical model relating microgel dynamics to neck growth, we show that the long-term behavior is governed by stress relaxation of the polymers in the neck region and predict an exponential decay in the rate of growth, which agrees favorably with the simulation. Different from coalescence, the thread thinning in microgel breakup primarily highlights its polymeric characteristics.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the potential for bird‐habitat models to support biodiversity‐friendly urban planning

Abstract Urban expansion poses a major threat to wildlife populations. Biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes could deliver benefits for both wildlife and people, by incorporating conservation and ecosystem services objectives. Well‐designed urban developments could also soften the ecological impacts of urbanization. However, delivering urban landscapes that integrate biodiversity requirements effectively remains challenging. Ecological models, designed to predict wildlife population responses to alternative urban designs, could prove effective in supporting the creation of biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes. Here, we combine national‐scale bird abundance data with high resolution, spatially explicit habitat data to characterize relationships between bird densities and urban landscape form in Britain. From these analyses and cross validation, we evaluate the potential for well‐parameterized, species‐specific models to be used to predict bird densities in novel or modified urban areas. Our analyses indicate that responses of bird abundance to urban habitat are species‐specific and complex, with few variables consistently affecting a large proportion of species. However, contiguous areas of greenspace within urban sites are preferential for accommodating breeding birds, compared to a more fragmented arrangement of multiple, small greenspace patches. In combination, the bird‐habitat relationships identified could successfully predict observed variation in abundance for most bird species considered. Further evaluation of habitat descriptor variables, spatial scales of species' habitat use and analytical modelling approaches may be needed to improve the predictive ability of bird‐habitat models for certain species, particularly waterbirds and those observed less frequently in urban areas. Synthesis and applications . We modelled breeding bird abundance in built‐up areas with respect to the characteristics and contexts of urban environments. While most variables were important for multiple species, responses overall were species‐specific, so simple assemblage metrics, like diversity, will not describe the variation in bird communities well. However, the results illustrate the potential of an evidence‐based, spatially explicit evaluation of urban development impacts on biodiversity, by predicting the consequences for bird numbers. Subject to verification of predictive ability, practitioners can apply the models to compare, for example, land‐sparing and sharing within developments, or to quantify the biodiversity requirements for effective offsetting. This would be facilitated by incorporation into an online tool allowing user‐determined input scenarios.

Plummer, Kate E.↗