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At least 415 records · Page 23

Study leading to the refinement of the SRB structural analysis program

The constructed SRB math model was used for the analysis of the 85/32/5(VV/VH/theta) cavity collapse load condition for the aft end of the SRB structure. Linear, nonlinear collapse and bifurcation buckling analyses were performed. The linear and bifurcation buckling analyses showed that structural integrity and positive margins of safety are maintained for the applied maximum load case using a design factor of 1.25. The nonlinear collapse analysis predicts stresses in the skirt above the yield for a load factor of 1.0. Applying the 1.25 design factor gives a negative margin of safety against the material ultimate. The predicted collapse occurs at a load factor higher than 1.25.

Jones, W. E.↗

Visibility of the lunar crescent

A model designed to predict whether or not the moon will be visible under any set of observing conditions is presented. It explicitly includes atmospheric clarity, which is calculated from the site's altitude, latitude, temperature, relative humidity, aerosol content, and time of the year. This mathematical model is combined with a lunar and solar ephemeris to yield a computer program which will predict the date of the first crescent sighting from any location. A list of 201 observations of lunar visibility was collected to test this model and other models. It is found that criteria involving the moonset lagtime and the moon's age have zones of uncertainty which typically cover the entire earth.

Schaefer, Bradley E.↗

Granular instability in fluidized beds: A small-over-large instability

For different particle diameters arranged in a gas fluidized bed, a new gravitational instability is predicted. The first order stability analysis yields conditions for growth of the most unstable wavenumber both as a function of particle diameter and dimensionless Bond number. Gravity acts to distribute the greater fluid mass associated with smaller particles, while surface tension stabilizes the entire bed against accelerations. The phenomenon, called the 'Small-over-Large' (SL) instability, evolves somewhat akin to a Rayleigh-Taylor mechanism and in addition to fundamental interest, carries implications for predicting solute redistribution and gravitational alignments in particle beds and chemical separation columns.

Noever, David A.↗

An Acoustic Emission and Acousto-Ultrasonic Analysis of Impact Damaged Composite Pressure Vessels

The research presented herein summarizes the development of acoustic emission (AE) and acousto-ultrasonic (AU) techniques for the nondestructive evaluation of filament wound composite pressure vessels. Vessels fabricated from both graphite and kevlar fibers with an epoxy matrix were examined prior to hydroburst using AU and during hydroburst using AE. A dead weight drop apparatus featuring both blunt and sharp impactor tips was utilized to produce a single known energy 'damage' level in each of the vessels so that the degree to which the effects of impact damage could be measured. The damage levels ranged from barely visible to obvious fiber breakage and delamination. Independent neural network burst pressure prediction models were developed from a sample of each fiber/resin material system. Here, the cumulative AE amplitude distribution data collected from low level proof test (25% of the expected burst for undamaged vessels) were used to measure the effects of the impact on the residual burst pressure of the vessels. The results of the AE/neural network model for the inert propellant filled graphite/epoxy vessels 'IM7/3501-6, IM7/977-2 and IM7/8553-45' demonstrated that burst pressures can be predicted from low level AE proof test data, yielding an average error of 5.0%. The trained network for the IM7/977-2 class vessels was also able to predict the expected burst pressure of taller vessels (three times longer hoop region length) constructed of the same material and using the same manufacturing technique, with an average error of 4.9%. To a lesser extent, the burst pressure prediction models could also measure the effects of impact damage to the kevlar/epoxy 'Kevlar 49/ DPL862' vessels. Here though, due to the higher attenuation of the material, an insufficient amount of AE amplitude information was collected to generate robust network models. Although, the worst case trial errors were less than 6%, when additional blind predictions were attempted, errors as high as 50% were produced. An acousto-ultrasonic robotic evaluation system (AURES) was developed for mapping the effects of damage on filament wound pressure vessels prior to hydroproof testing. The AURES injects a single broadband ultrasonic pulse into each vessel at preprogrammed positions and records the effects of the interaction of that pulse on the material volume with a broadband receiver. A stress wave factor in the form of the energy associated with the 750 to 1000 kHz and 1000 to 1250 kHz frequency bands were used to map the potential failure sites for each vessel. The energy map associated with the graphite/epoxy vessels was found to decrease in the region of the impact damage. The kevlar vessels showed the opposite trend, with the energy values increasing around the damage/failure sites.

Walker, James L.↗

Strain intensity factor approach for predicting the strength of continuously reinforced metal matrix composites

A method was previously developed to predict the fracture toughness (stress intensity factor at failure) of composites in terms of the elastic constants and the tensile failing strain of the fibers. The method was applied to boron/aluminum composites made with various proportions of 0 to + or - 45 deg plies. Predicted values of fracture toughness were in gross error because widespread yielding of the aluminum matrix made the compliance very nonlinear. An alternate method was developed to predict the strain intensity factor at failure rather than the stress intensity factor because the singular strain field was not affected by yielding as much as the stress field. Strengths of specimens containing crack-like slits were calculated from predicted failing strains using uniaxial stress-strain curves. Predicted strengths were in good agreement with experimental values, even for the very nonlinear laminates that contained only + or - 45 deg plies. This approach should be valid for other metal matrix composites that have continuous fibers.

Poe, C. C., Jr.↗

Charge Yield at Low Electric Fields: Considerations for Bipolar Integrated Circuits

A significant reduction in total dose damage is observed when bipolar integrated circuits are irradiated at low temperature. This can be partially explained by the Onsager theory of recombination, which predicts a strong temperature dependence for charge yield under low-field conditions. Reduced damage occurs for biased as well as unbiased devices because the weak fringing field in thick bipolar oxides only affects charge yield near the Si/SiO2 interface, a relatively small fraction of the total oxide thickness. Lowering the temperature of bipolar ICs - either continuously, or for time periods when they are exposed to high radiation levels - provides an additional degree of freedom to improve total dose performance of bipolar circuits, particularly in space applications.

ionizing radiation↗

Solar-cell interconnect design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

Useful solar cell interconnect reliability design and life prediction algorithms are presented, together with experimental data indicating that the classical strain cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material does not account for the statistical scatter that is required in reliability predictions. This shortcoming is presently addressed by fitting a functional form to experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data, which thereby yields statistical fatigue curves enabling not only the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, but also the quantitative interpretation of data from accelerated thermal cycling tests. Optimal interconnect cost reliability design algorithms are also derived which may allow the minimization of energy cost over the design life of the array field.

Mon, G. R.↗

The PIAA-Vortex Coronagraph: A New Coronagraph Technology to Maximize Exo-Earth Yields in the Astro2020 Era

Detecting and characterizing the atmospheres of terrestrial exoplanets is a main goal of the IR/O/UV flagship mission recommended by the Astro2020 Report. Achieving this goal depends critically on developing coronagraph technology that maximizes the potential number of terrestrial exoplanets we predict we can characterize, i.e. the exoEarth yield. Stringent constraints on low-order aberration sensitivity, inner working angle, and throughput as a function of telescope pupil complexity have been one of the main limiting factors affecting the yield of coronagraphs, and is a driving factor for telescope design considerations such as whether to use an off-axis or on-axis architecture. We present a hybrid PIAA-Vortex coronagraph concept that relaxes many of these constraints, and makes on-axis telescopes with centrally obstructed pupils a viable region of the design trade-space for the IR/O/UV flagship. Using the LUVOIR-A pupil as a baseline to design around, we present a coronagraph architecture with a small, ~2.5 lambda/D working angle that is insensitive to tip/tilt aberrations and stellar angular diameters on the order of 0.1 lambda/D. Pupil-plane apodization is achieved with PIAA-style mirror apodizations we obtain using a formalism we have developed to simultaneously optimize the contrast and low-order aberration sensitivity of coronagraphs designed for arbitrary telescope pupils and dark-hole geometries. By using PIAA to apodize in the pupil plane, the PIAA-Vortex coronagraph mitigates the trade-off between planet throughput, IWA, and aberration sensitivity, resulting in significantly higher yields for coronagraphs on obstructed pupils and new opportunities to maximize our ability to detect biomarkers in the Astro2020 era.

Kevin Fogarty↗

Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 1

This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean and the variance of the model's parameters, thus of the predicted output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, can be bounded tightly and rigorously.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

A slotted test section numerical model for interference assessment

A numerical model of a slotted wind tunnel test section, intended for use with sparsely measured wall pressures in a wall interference assessment procedure, is described. The numerical model includes a discrete finite length wall slot representation and accounts for the nonlinear effects of the dynamic pressure of the slot outflow jet and of the low energy of slot inflow air. By using th numerical model in a wall interference prediction mode, it is demonstrated that accounting for slot discreteness is important in interpreting wall pressures measured between slots, and that accounting for finite slot length and nonlinear effects in the slot boundary condition can yield significant departures from the wall interference predicted using the classical linear homogeneous infinite-length wall representation.

Kemp, W. B., Jr.↗

Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

Strain intensity factor approach for predicting the strength of continuously reinforced metal matrix composites

A method was previously developed to predict the fracture toughness (stress intensity factor at failure) of composites in terms of the elastic constants and the tensile failing strain of the fibers. The method was applied to boron/aluminum composites made with various proportions of 0 deg and +/- 45 deg plies. Predicted values of fracture toughness were in gross error because widespread yielding of the aluminum matrix made the compliance very nonlinear. An alternate method was develolped to predict the strain intensity factor at failure rather than the stress intensity factor because the singular strain field was not affected by yielding as much as the stress field. Far-field strains at failure were calculated from the strain intensity factor, and then strengths were calculated from the far-field strains using uniaxial stress-strain curves. The predicted strengths were in good agreement with experimental values, even for the very nonlinear laminates that contained only +/- 45 deg plies. This approach should be valid for other metal matrix composites that have continuous fibers.

Poe, Clarence C., Jr.↗

Low cost vee-trough evacuated tube collector module

A low cost solar collector capable of operating at 150-200 C is described. An evacuated tube receiver is combined with asymmetric vee-trough concentrators. Peak efficiencies of about 40% at 120 C and 30% at 180 C are expected. Predicted future collector cost is $70/sq m which yields an energy cost of $4.20/GJ at 120 C. During the development of the vee trough/evacuated tube collector both mathematical models to predict thermal and optical performance were developed and tests run to verify theory. The asymmetric vee trough concentrator increases the solar flux intensity for an average value of 2 for year-round performance. Optimized collector module has reflector angles of 55 deg/85 deg. The aperture plane is tilted to the latitude. The reflector is made of electropolished aluminum. The supporting frame is formed by bending sheet metal. Evacuated tube receivers are Pyrex, 15 cm diam and 2.4 m long. The module has 12 tubes on right and left sides altogether. Attainable operation at temperatures on the order of 150-200 C are suitable for absorption refrigeration and power generation via Rankine engines.

Selcuk, M. K.↗

Heat Stress to Jeopardize Crop Production in the US Corn Belt Based on Downscaled CMIP5 Projections

CONTEXT Global food security faces increasing challenges from the changing climate. Changes of agricultural output from some of the most productive regions such as the US Corn Belt can largely affect the world's food market. Developing predictive understanding of the agricultural risk of climate change and potential mitigation strategies is critical for the global food security. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study is to assess the responses of maize and soybean yield to projected climate changes in the Corn Belt, identify the shifting environment stressors on crop yield, and tackle potential climate adaptation strategies. METHODS We drive a process-based model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, with high-resolution statistically downscaled and bias-corrected historical and future climates from ten CMIP5 models in the MACA-2 database. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The multi-model ensemble mean suggests a 12% decrease of maize yield by mid-century and 40% by late century, with a high degree of model consensus in the direction of changes; for individual models, the projected decrease of maize yield by late century ranges from <5% to over 80%, with the worst crop outcome corresponding to the most sensitive climate models. Soybean yield is projected to increase by midcentury with a high degree of model consensus, but such consensus is lost by late century as some projections shift to significant decreases. Crop yield in the Corn Belt is currently limited by water stress, but is projected to be increasingly limited by heat stress as well after the midcentury. The mounting heat stress will drive the most productive zone for maize to shift from central to northern part of the Corn Belt, but the projected increase in the northern states cannot fully compensate for the decrease in the south, causing the total production to decrease if agricultural practice stays the same. Earlier planting can alleviate only a small fraction of the heat-induced crop loss in a warmer climate. Climate change will (at least partially) offset the yield boost caused by agricultural technology and intensification. SIGNIFICANCE This study advances our predictive understanding of crop yield responses to climate change, and suggests that a multitude of strategies will be needed to address the climate change challenges for the U.S. agriculture.

Crop yield↗

Far infrared spectroscopy of the Orion Nebula

A coarse resolution spectrum of the Orion Nebula between 65 and 125 microns is presented which closely fits the color dependence of a 75 K blackbody. A high resolution search for O III at 88.16 microns yields an upper limit below theoretical predictions. Observations were carried out in November, 1974, using the 31 cm gyrostabilized telescope mounted in the NASA Lear jet. The instrument employed was a fully liquid helium cooled grating spectrometer with a 3 mm entrance slit that gave a square beam on the sky, 5 arc minutes in diameter. The results are presented.

Ward, D. B.↗

Analysis of the Capability and Limitations of Relativistic Gravity Measurements Using Radio Astronomy Methods

The uses of radar observations of planets and very-long-baseline radio interferometric observations of extragalactic objects to test theories of gravitation are described in detail with special emphasis on sources of error. The accuracy achievable in these tests with data already obtained, can be summarized in terms of: retardation of signal propagation (radar), deflection of radio waves (interferometry), advance of planetary perihelia (radar), gravitational quadrupole moment of sun (radar), and time variation of gravitational constant (radar). The analyses completed to date have yielded no significant disagreement with the predictions of general relativity.

Shapiro, I. I.↗

Far-infrared spectroscopy of the Orion Nebula

A coarse-resolution spectrum of the Orion Nebula between 75 and 120 microns closely fits the color dependence of a 75 K blackbody. A high-resolution search for O III at 88.16 microns yields an upper limit below theoretical predictions.

Ward, D. B.↗

Rate and time dependent failure of structural adhesives

Studies on two adhesives (Metlbond 1113 and 1113-2) identified as having important applications in the bonding of composite materials are presented. A testing program to ascertain stress-strain, strain-rate, time, yield, and/or failure behavior of these materials in bulk form using uniaxial tensile constant strain-rate, creep, and relaxation tests is described. The stress-strain behavior of each material is shown to be significantly rate dependent. A rate dependent stress whitening (crazing) phenomenon occurs prior to either yield or fracture. A region of linear elasticity, a region of viscoelasticity, and the onset of yielding are identified in the stress-strain behavior. The linear elastic limit and the yield point are shown to be rate dependent and agree well with an empirical equation proposed by Ludwik. A creep to failure phenomenon is shown to exist and is correlated with a delayed yield equation proposed by Crochet. Analytical predictions based on a modified Bingham model are shown to agree well with experimental stress-strain strain-rate data. Analytical predictions based on a modified Ramberg-Osgood equation are also shown for comparison purposes.

Brinson, H. F.↗