Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Yield Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23

Salience Assignment for Multiple-Instance Regression

We present a Multiple-Instance Learning (MIL) algorithm for determining the salience of each item in each bag with respect to the bag's real-valued label. We use an alternating-projections constrained optimization approach to simultaneously learn a regression model and estimate all salience values. We evaluate this algorithm on a significant real-world problem, crop yield modeling, and demonstrate that it provides more extensive, intuitive, and stable salience models than Primary-Instance Regression, which selects a single relevant item from each bag.

regression↗

Multiple Instance Regression with Structured Data

This slide presentation reviews the use of multiple instance regression with structured data from multiple and related data sets. It applies the concept to a practical problem, that of estimating crop yield using remote sensed country wide weekly observations.

multiple instance regression↗

Recalibration of the Shear Stress Transport Model to Improve Calculation of Shock Separated Flows

The Menter Shear Stress Transport (SST) k . turbulence model is one of the most widely used two-equation Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes turbulence models for aerodynamic analyses. The model extends Menter s baseline (BSL) model to include a limiter that prevents the calculated turbulent shear stress from exceeding a prescribed fraction of the turbulent kinetic energy via a proportionality constant, a1, set to 0.31. Compared to other turbulence models, the SST model yields superior predictions of mild adverse pressure gradient flows including those with small separations. In shock - boundary layer interaction regions, the SST model produces separations that are too large while the BSL model is on the other extreme, predicting separations that are too small. In this paper, changing a1 to a value near 0.355 is shown to significantly improve predictions of shock separated flows. Several cases are examined computationally and experimental data is also considered to justify raising the value of a1 used for shock separated flows.

Georgiadis, Nicholas J.↗

Effect of Distributed Patch of Smooth Roughness Elements on Transition in a High-Speed Boundary Layer

Surface roughness is known to have a substantial impact on the aerothermodynamic loading of hypersonic vehicles, particularly via its influence on the laminar-turbulent transition process within the boundary layer. Numerical simulations are performed to investigate the effects of a distributed region of densely packed, smooth-shaped roughness elements on the laminar boundary layer over a 7-degree half-angle, circular cone for flow conditions corresponding to a selected trajectory point from the ascent phase of the HIFiRE-1 flight experiment. For peak-to-valley roughness heights of 50 percent or less in comparison with the thickness of the unperturbed boundary layer, the computations converge to a stationary flow, suggesting that the flow is globally stable. Analysis of convective instabilities in the wake of the roughness patch indicates two dominant families of unstable disturbances, namely, a high frequency mode that corresponds to Mack mode waves modified by the wake and a lower frequency mode that corresponds to shear layer instabilities associated with the streaks in the roughness wake. Even though the peak growth rate of the later mode is more than 35 percent greater than the peak growth rates of the Mack modes, the latter modes achieve higher amplification ratios, and hence, are likely to dominate the onset of transition, which is estimated to occur slightly later than that in the unperturbed, i.e., smooth surface boundary layer. Additional computations are performed to investigate the effects of various roughness patch configurations on a Mach 3.5 flat plate boundary layer, to help guide an upcoming experiment in the Mach 3.5 Supersonic Low Disturbance Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center. In this case, the cumulative reinforcement of basic state distortion over the length of the roughness patch is predicted to yield a significantly earlier transition than that over a smooth plate or a plate with a shorter length roughness patch.

Meelan Choudhari↗

High Angular Resolution ALMA Images of Dust and Molecules in the SN 1987A Ejecta

We present high angular resolution (∼80 mas) ALMA continuum images of the SN1987A system, together with CO J = 21, J = 65, and SiO J = 54 to J = 76 images, which clearly resolve the ejecta (dust continuum and molecules) and ring (synchrotron continuum) components. Dust in the ejecta is asymmetric and clumpy, and overall the dust fills the spatial void seen in Hα images, filling that region with material from heavier elements. The dust clumps generally fill the space where CO J = 6 5 is fainter, tentatively indicating that these dust clumps and CO are locationally and chemically linked. In these regions, carbonaceous dust grains might have formed after dissociation of CO. The dust grains would have cooled by radiation, and subsequent collisions of grains with gas would also cool the gas, suppressing the CO J = 6 5 intensity. The data show a dust peak spatially coincident with the molecular hole seen in previous ALMA CO J = 2 1 and SiO J = 5 4 images. That dust peak, combined with CO and SiO line spectra, suggests that the dust and gas could be at higher temperatures than the surrounding material, though higher density cannot be totally excluded. One of the possibilities is that a compact source provides additional heat at that location. Fits to the far-infrared–millimeter spectral energy distribution give ejecta dust temperatures of 18–23 K. We revise the ejecta dust mass to Mdust = 0.2–0.4 Mfor carbon or silicate grains, or a maximum of <0.7 Mfor a mixture of grain species, using the predicted nucleosynthesis yields as an upper limit.

Interstellar dust↗

Continued Discussion of Failure Mode Modeling and Overall Component Reliability: Are the Data Missing or Censored?

This paper is the continuation of a paper presented at the 13th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, in which a methodology of modeling failure modes of complex components was presented; see Paulos and Smith (2016). This methodology is not particularly helpful in the space industry where there is a lack of failure data, but is more helpful in industries that see a lot of component repairs and improvements, such as in the aircraft or automotive industries. The previous paper demonstrated how the typical approach of treating failure modes as being exponential in nature may yield optimistic predictions when estimating how improvements to components will perform in the future. It is more accurate to model the failure modes as a race in time; unfortunately, this does not give a closed-form solution. This paper uses simulation to solve for the model of the world, and the results compared to the standard methodology of treating the failure modes as being exponential random failures. The standard method is shown to have optimistic predictions, which will lead to prediction errors when failure modes are removed or “fixed.” The failure mode methodology presented in the first paper treated the data as being censored when the test stopped. In this paper, we will compare the results from treating the data as both censored and missing.

Smith, Curtis↗

Continued Discussion of Failure Mode Modeling and Overall Component Reliability: Is the Data Missing or Censored?

This paper is a continuation of a paper presented at the 13th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, in which a discussion of modeling failure modes of complex components was presented; see Paulos and Smith (2016). The paper demonstrated how the typical method of treating failure modes as being exponential in nature may yield optimistic predictions when estimating how improvements to components will perform in the real world. Instead of relying on textbook methods, it is more accurate to model the failure modes as a race in time; unfortunately, this does not give a closed-form solution. This work uses a simulation to solve for the model of the world, and is compared to the standard methodology of treating the failure modes as exponential random failures. The standard method is shown to have optimistic predictions, which will lead to prediction errors when failure modes were removed or “fixed.” The failure mode methodology presented in the first paper treated the data as being censored when the test stopped. In this paper, we will compare the results from treating the data as both censored and missing, and comparisons will be shown showing which method is more accurate and under what conditions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - 3.4.2.302 - Process Scale Up for Production Environments

This project supports the Department of Energy's Bioenergy Technology Office mission of transitioning bioenergy technologies to market by de-risking integration, developing scaling relations and modeling that de-risks scale up, and providing a feedback loop with lower TRL projects to understand process and technology fundamentals. Two objectives were pursued during this merit cycle. First, the Thermal and Catalytic Process Development Unit (TCPDU), a 0.5 ton/day pilot plant, was used to validate kinetic models developed by the Consortium for Computational Physics and Chemistry (CCPC). Validating the models accurately predict product yields and composition is a first step toward de-risking a common industry failure - taking too large of steps between scales. In addition, these models help with design and troubleshooting of new unit operations for the TCPDU. The second objective was to conduct the FY22 verification campaign around ex situ CFP. The primary challenge of this effort was the coordination of multiple national labs and projects. This was overcome by a dedicated leadership role and effective communication strategy between the projects. Currently the project is undergoing a pivot based on a stagegate decision to not conduct the verification campaign in the TCPDU and it is focused on closing out the CFP technology at a smaller scale by the end of the current fiscal year.

BIOMASS FUELS↗

Statistical Multiobjective Optimization of Thiospinel CoNi 2 S 4 Nanocrystal Synthesis via Design of Experiments

Thiospinels, such as CoNi 2 S 4 , are showing promise for numerous applications, including as catalysts for the hydrogen evolution reaction, hydrodesulfurization, and oxygen evolution and reduction reactions; however, CoNi 2 S 4 has not been synthesized as small, colloidal nanocrystals with high surface-area-to-volume ratios. Traditional optimization methods to control nanocrystal attributes such as size typically rely upon one variable at a time (OVAT) methods that are not only time and labor intensive but also lack the ability to identify higher-order interactions between experimental variables that affect target outcomes. Herein, we demonstrate that a statistical design of experiments (DoE) approach can optimize the synthesis of CoNi 2 S 4 nanocrystals, allowing for control over the responses of nanocrystal size, size distribution, and isolated yield. After implementing a 2 5–2 fractional factorial design, the statistical screening of five different experimental variables identified temperature, Co:Ni precursor ratio, Co:thiol ratio, and their higher-order interactions as the most critical factors in influencing the aforementioned responses. Second-order design with a Doehlert matrix yielded polynomial functions used to predict the reaction parameters needed to individually optimize all three responses. A multiobjective optimization, allowing for the simultaneous optimization of size, size distribution, and isolated yield, predicted the synthetic conditions needed to achieve a minimum nanocrystal size of 6.1 nm, a minimum polydispersity (σ/$\bar{d}$) of 10%, and a maximum isolated yield of 99%, with a desirability of 96%. The resulting model was experimentally verified by performing reactions under the specified conditions. Furthermore, our work illustrates the advantage of multivariate experimental design as a powerful tool for accelerating control and optimization in nanocrystal syntheses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development of a Land Use Mapping and Monitoring Protocol for the High Plains Region: A Multitemporal Remote Sensing Application

The purpose of this project was to develop a practical protocol that employs multitemporal remotely sensed imagery, integrated with environmental parameters to model and monitor agricultural and natural resources in the High Plains Region of the United States. The value of this project would be extended throughout the region via workshops targeted at carefully selected audiences and designed to transfer remote sensing technology and the methods and applications developed. Implementation of such a protocol using remotely sensed satellite imagery is critical for addressing many issues of regional importance, including: (1) Prediction of rural land use/land cover (LULC) categories within a region; (2) Use of rural LULC maps for successive years to monitor change; (3) Crop types derived from LULC maps as important inputs to water consumption models; (4) Early prediction of crop yields; (5) Multi-date maps of crop types to monitor patterns related to crop change; (6) Knowledge of crop types to monitor condition and improve prediction of crop yield; (7) More precise models of crop types and conditions to improve agricultural economic forecasts; (8;) Prediction of biomass for estimating vegetation production, soil protection from erosion forces, nonpoint source pollution, wildlife habitat quality and other related factors; (9) Crop type and condition information to more accurately predict production of biogeochemicals such as CO2, CH4, and other greenhouse gases that are inputs to global climate models; (10) Provide information regarding limiting factors (i.e., economic constraints of pumping, fertilizing, etc.) used in conjunction with other factors, such as changes in climate for predicting changes in rural LULC; (11) Accurate prediction of rural LULC used to assess the effectiveness of government programs such as the U.S. Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Conservation Reserve Program; and (12) Prediction of water demand based on rural LULC that can be related to rates of draw-down of underground water supplies.

Price, Kevin P.↗

X‐ray characterization of three possible edible oleogelators: Experiment and theory

Abstract Three oleogelator molecules (Triacontane (TC), Stearic acid (SA), and Behenyl Lignocerate (BL)) were studied individually, in pairs, or all together to make an oleogel using triolein as the oil. WAXS, SAXS and USAXS were used to elucidate the solid structures from angstroms to a few micrometers. A two‐dimensional mapping of atomic positions for each molecule was carried out to understand the crystalline multilayer structures formed. We assumed that the molecules were rigidly extended and that they underwent no significant (hindered) rotations so that the free energy is determined by the Lennard‐Jones interactions of closely packed multilayers. TC molecules were predicted to form a tilt angle of , yielding a SAXS line at Å ─1 , in acceptable agreement with the measured . For SA crystals (predicted) yielding a SAXS line at compared to (observed). No mixed crystals were observed for any pair of molecules or when all three were used. USAXS data showed that SA forms large nanocrystals compared to TC and BL. All three combinations of molecular pairs showed basic scatterers smaller or similar to those of individual molecules. The theory presented here, together with the experimental results, showed why no mixed crystals are formed from two or all three molecules. Data from the USAXS region suggested that, when using all three molecules, a more compact fractal structure was obtained, compared with those if one or two of the molecules were used.

Chemistry↗

How numerical simulations helped to achieve breakeven on the NIF

The inertial confinement fusion program relies upon detailed simulations with inertial confinement fusion (ICF) codes to design targets and to interpret the experimental results. These simulations treat as much physics from essential principles as is practical, including laser deposition, cross beam energy transfer, x-ray production and transport, nonlocal thermal equilibrium kinetics, thermal transport, hydrodynamic instabilities, thermonuclear burn, and transport of reaction products. Improvements in radiation hydrodynamic code capabilities and vast increases in computing power have enabled more realistic, accurate 3D simulations that treat all known asymmetry sources. We describe how numerical simulations helped to guide the program, assess the impediments to breakeven, and optimize every aspect of target design. A preshot simulation of the first National Ignition Facility experiment that surpassed breakeven predicted an increased yield that matches the experimental result, within the preshot predicted uncertainty, with a target gain of 1.5. We will cover the key developments in Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ICF codes that enabled these simulations and give specific examples of how they helped to guide the program.

Marinak, M. M. (ORCID:0009000331127696)↗

Validation of finite element and boundary element methods for predicting structural vibration and radiated noise

Analytical and experimental validation of methods to predict structural vibration and radiated noise are presented. A rectangular box excited by a mechanical shaker was used as a vibrating structure. Combined finite element method (FEM) and boundary element method (BEM) models of the apparatus were used to predict the noise radiated from the box. The FEM was used to predict the vibration, and the surface vibration was used as input to the BEM to predict the sound intensity and sound power. Vibration predicted by the FEM model was validated by experimental modal analysis. Noise predicted by the BEM was validated by sound intensity measurements. Three types of results are presented for the total radiated sound power: (1) sound power predicted by the BEM modeling using vibration data measured on the surface of the box; (2) sound power predicted by the FEM/BEM model; and (3) sound power measured by a sound intensity scan. The sound power predicted from the BEM model using measured vibration data yields an excellent prediction of radiated noise. The sound power predicted by the combined FEM/BEM model also gives a good prediction of radiated noise except for a shift of the natural frequencies that are due to limitations in the FEM model.

Seybert, A. F.↗

Interval Predictor Models with a Formal Characterization of Uncertainty and Reliability

This paper develops techniques for constructing empirical predictor models based on observations. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single predicted output at each value of the model's inputs, Interval Predictors Models (IPM) yield an interval into which the unobserved output is predicted to fall. The IPMs proposed prescribe the output as an interval valued function of the model's inputs, render a formal description of both the uncertainty in the model's parameters and of the spread in the predicted output. Uncertainty is prescribed as a hyper-rectangular set in the space of model's parameters. The propagation of this set through the empirical model yields a range of outputs of minimal spread containing all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations. Optimization-based strategies for calculating IPMs and eliminating the effects of outliers are proposed. Outliers are identified by evaluating the extent by which they degrade the tightness of the prediction. This evaluation can be carried out while the IPM is calculated. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization program used for calculating the IPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex program), the model's reliability (that is, the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted range of outputs) can be bounded rigorously by a non-asymptotic formula.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Cold neutron-deuteron capture and Wigner-SU(4) symmetry

We calculate the cold neutron-deuteron (nd) capture cross section,σ nd to next-to-next-to leading order (NNLO) using the model-independent approach of pionless effective-field theory [EFT(π)]. At leading order we find σ nd = 0.314 ± 0.217 mb, while the experimental result is 0.508(15) mb for a laboratory neutron velocity of 2200 m/s. At next-to-leading-order (NLO), we show that σnd is sensitive to the low-energy constant (LEC) $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ of the two-nucleon isovector current appearing at NLO. A fit of $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ at NLO to the triton magnetic moment yields a NLO prediction of σ nd = 0.393 ± 0.164 mb, where the error comes from propagating the error from the $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ fit. At NNLO, we find that a new three-nucleon magnetic moment counterterm is required for renormalization-group invariance of both σnd and the triton magnetic moment. Fitting the NNLO correction to $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ (denoted $L$$^{(1)}_{1}$) to cold neutron-proton capture (σnp) yields a NNLO prediction of σ nd = 0.447 ± 0.130 mb, where the error comes from propagating the error from the $L$$^{(1)}_{1}$ fit. We also study different fittings of $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ and $L$$^{(1)}_{1}$ to σ np , σ nd , and/or the triton magnetic moment. For example, fitting $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ simultaneously to σ np , σ nd , and the triton magnetic moment at NLO, and fitting $L$$^{(1)}_{1}$ simultaneously to σ np and σnd at NNLO, yields σ nd = 0.480 ± 0.114 mb and 0.511 ± 0.042 mb, respectively, where errors are naively estimated from EFT(π) power counting. Additionally, we discuss how Wigner SU(4) symmetry may alter the naive EFT(π) expansion of σ nd .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Prospects for drag prediction using computational fluid dynamics

An account is given of CFD methods deemed likely to yield aerodynamic drag prediction improvements. Improvements in drag prediction are noted to largely proceed from improvements in viscous-layer resolution. Geometric modeling and grid generation are acknowledged to be major pacing items, and may be more important than turbulence modeling. The use of upwind differencing has led to improved solution accuracy due to the nature of the artificial viscosity in cases involving shocks and nonphysical dissipation across viscous layers. Multiblock algorithms will allow more complex geometries to be treated.

Roberts, Thomas W.↗

On the Prediction of Uniaxial Tensile Behavior Beyond the Yield Point of Wrought and Additively Manufactured Ti-6Al-4V

In this paper, phenomenological relationships are presented that permit the prediction of the plastic regime of stress–strain curves using a limited number of parameters. These relationships were obtained from both conventional (wrought + β annealed) and additively manufactured (i.e., “3D printed”) Ti-6Al-4V. Three different methods of additive manufacturing have been exploited to produce the materials, including large-volume electron beam additive manufacturing, large-volume laser hot wire additive manufacturing, and small-volume selective laser melting. The general fundamental expressions are independent not only of the additive manufacturing process, but also of a wide variety of post-deposition heat treatments, however the coefficients are specific to material states. Thus, this work demonstrates that it is possible to predict not only the ultimate tensile strength, but also the full true stress, true strain curves, if certain parameters of the material are known. In general, the prediction of ultimate tensile strength are within 5% of the experimentally measured values across all additive manufacturing variants and subsequent heat treatments. The absolute values of ultimate tensile strength range from ~ 910 MPa to ~ 1170 MPa for the single alloy Ti-6Al-4V. Data representing 113 explicit samples are included in this work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗