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At least 415 records · Page 23

Graph Representation Learning for Dengue Forecasting

In 2017, the largest recorded dengue outbreak in Sri Lanka’s history occurred. Since then, dengue has continued to threaten national health across Sri Lanka. The development of an effective Early Warning System (EWS) for dengue outbreaks is essential for Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Health to take preventative measures. We propose the use of Graph Neural Networks as EWS. Using earth observational data from NASAs global satellites and dengue incidence data from Sri Lanka s Ministry of Health, we developed a series of traditional and graph representation EWS to forecast Dengue cases across Sri Lanka’s 25 districts between 2013 and 2022. We demonstrate empirically that Graph Neural Networks which incorporate spatiotemporal relations significantly outperform traditional EWS such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Random Forest, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Our source code is available on GitHub and will be provided in the final submission.

Graph Neural Networks↗

Climate Extremes and Risks: Links Between Climate Science and Decision-Making

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a future where actionable climate information is universally accessible, supporting decision makers in preparing for and responding to climate change. In this perspective, we advocate for enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts. The proposed framework comprises three pillars: climate science, impact science, and decision-making, focusing on generating seamless climate information from sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal to century timescales informed by observed climate events and their impacts. The link between climate science and decision-making has strengthened in recent years, partly owing to undeniable impacts arising from disastrous weather extremes. Enhancing decision-relevant understanding involves utilizing lessons from past extreme events and implementing impact-based early warning systems to improve resilience. Integrated risk assessment and management require a comprehensive approach that encompasses good knowledge about possible impacts, hazard identification, monitoring, and communication of risks while acknowledging uncertainties inherent in climate predictions and projections, but not letting the uncertainty lead to decision paralysis. The importance of data accessibility, especially in the Global South, underscores the need for better coordination and resource allocation. Strategic frameworks should aim to enhance impact-related and open-access climate services around the world. Continuous improvements in predictive modeling and observational data are critical, as is ensuring that climate science remains relevant to decision makers locally and globally. Ultimately, fostering stronger collaborations and dedicated investments to process and tailor climate data will enhance societal preparedness, enabling communities to navigate the complexities of a changing climate effectively.

climate extremes↗

Timing and Multi-Channel: Novel Method for Determining the Neutrino Mass Ordering from Supernovae

One of the few remaining unknowns in the standard three-flavor neutrino oscillation paradigm is the ordering of neutrino masses. In this work we propose a novel method for determining neutrino mass ordering using the time information on early supernova neutrino events. In a core-collapse supernova, neutrinos are produced earlier than antineutrinos and, depending on the mass ordering which affects the adiabatic flavor evolution, may cause earlier observable signals in $\nu_e$ detection channels than in others. Hence, the time differences are sensitive to the mass ordering. We find that using the time information on the detection of the first galactic supernova events at future detectors like DUNE, JUNO and Hyper-Kamiokande, the mass ordering can already be determined at 2$\sigma$ CL, while $\mathcal{O}(10)$ events suffice for the discovery. Our method does not require high-statistics and could be used within the supernova early warning system (SNEWS) which will have access to the time information on early supernova neutrino events recorded in a number of detectors. The method proposed in this paper also implies a crucial interplay between the mass ordering and the triangulation method for locating supernovae.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Inferring UAV Position Relative to Smartphone Sensor Based on Acoustic Characteristics

As commercial and non-commercial unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) improve technologically and increase in accessibility, their potential for use in actions antithetical to nuclear non-proliferation efforts increases as well. The ability to identify and locate UAVs using ubiquitous, inexpensive hardware and software would be advantageous as both a deterrent and an initial warning system. Our team looks to utilize smartphones as acoustic sensors to record and characterize UAV movement based on the sound produced while in flight. Multi-rotor UAVs produce identifiable acoustic spectral characteristics with frequencies and harmonics corresponding to motor revolutions per minute and the propeller characteristics. As the source moves closer to the receiver these spectral patterns remain relatively stable (at slow speeds), while the energy observed from the waves increases. The goal of this work is to utilize a small network of smartphone sensors with known, fixed positions to infer the relative position of an in-flight UAV with respect to the position of the smartphones through the variation in acoustic energy.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

Development and Certification of a New Stall Warning and Avoidance System

Several methods may be employed to improve natural stall characteristics. The method employed on all learjets to obtain improved stall characteristics is a stall warning and avoidance system that employs angle of attack vanes, an electronic computer, a control column shaker motor, and a torquer which drives the control column in a pusher mode to avoid unwanted further buildup of angle of attack. The new system was developed with changes that improve system response with no performance penalty or increase in turbulence sensitivity. The following changes were made included modified system time constants and (alpha) time rate of change of vane angle dead zone and the addition of an alpha signal limiter and an alpha cut out below a specified angle of attack.

Gertsen, W. M.↗

Design and fabrication of prototype system for early warning of impending bearing failure

A test program was conducted with the objective of developing a method and equipment for on-line monitoring of installed ball bearings to detect deterioration or impending failure of the bearings. The program was directed at the spin-axis bearings of a control moment gyro. The bearings were tested at speeds of 6000 and 8000 rpm, thrust loads from 50 to 1000 pounds, with a wide range of lubrication conditions, with and without a simulated fatigue spall implanted in the inner race ball track. It was concluded that a bearing monitor system based on detection and analysis of modulations of a fault indicating bearing resonance frequency can provide a low threshold of sensitivity.

Meacher, J.↗

NASA's NMME-Based S2S Hydrologic Forecast System for Food Insecurity Early Warning in Southern Africa

In situ hydrologic monitoring over regions most susceptible to food insecurity can be a challenge in current times due to various socio-economic and political issues in combination with environmental factors such as ongoing famine or drought. Hydrologic monitoring and initializing forecasts based on remotely sensed and analyzed data can contribute significantly to early warning in such regions. Routine hydrologic forecasts, as provided by NASA’s Hydrologic Forecasting and Analysis System (NHyFAS), are a recent addition to early warning systems. A custom instance of NHyFAS, termed FLDAS-Forecast, is used by FEWS NET’s Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS). The FLDAS-Forecast’s dynamic forecasting component was originally set up with Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) forecast inputs and has been recently expanded with precipitation forecast forcing from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). This paper describes the improvements in seasonal hydrologic forecasts produced with this updated system. Evaluations in this study focus on soil moisture across southern Africa’s growing season. Soil moisture forecasts are benchmarked and evaluated relative to climatology-based forecasts and historic runs, which are driven by observation-based meteorological forcing fields, and they are verified with remotely sensed observations of soil moisture and vegetation. Through multiple deterministic and probabilistic skill assessments, we show that using the larger ensemble of NMME precipitation inputs in the forecast system results in higher quality hydrologic forecasts than are allowed by climatology- or GEOS-only-based forecasts. Further, the near-real-time NMME-based rootzone soil moisture forecasts were able to correctly predict developing drought conditions over southern Africa through late 2019 and into early 2020.

Hydrologic forecasts↗

Design and fabrication of prototype system for early warning of impending bearing failure

Ball bearing performance tests run on several identical ball bearings under a variety of load, speed, temperature, and lubrication conditions are reported. Bearing temperature, torque, vibration, noise, strain, cage speed, etc., were monitored to establish those measurements most suitable as indicators of ball bearing health. Tape records were made under steady-state conditions of a variety of speeds and loads. Sample sections were selected for narrowband spectral analysis with a real time analyzer. An artificial flow was created across the inner race surface of one bearing using an acid etch technique to produce the scratch. Tape records obtained before and after established a characteristic frequency response that identifies the presence of the flow. The signals found most useful as indicators of performance degradation were ultrasonic outputs.

Broderick, J. J.↗

Airbus windshear warning and guidance system

From its first designed airplane, Airbus considered mandatory a help in the crew's decision-making process to initiate an escape maneuver and help to successfully realize it. All the Airbus airplanes designed since 1975 included an alpha-floor function and a speed reference control law imbedded in the speed reference system (SRS) box for A 300 and FAC and FCC for A 310, A300/600 and the A 320. Alpha-Floor function takes into account the airplane energy situation considering angle of attack and observed longitudinal situation in order to apply immediately the full power without any pilot action. Speed reference managers control airspeed and/or ground speed in order to survive a maximum in shear situation. In order to comply with the new FAA regulation: Aerospatiale and Airbus developed more efficient systems. A comparison between 1975 and a newly developed system is given. It is explained how the new system improves the situation.

Bonafe, J. L.↗

Development of an Early Warning Fire Detection System using Correlation Spectroscopy

Combustion byproducts are numerous. A few examples of the gaseous byproducts include carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, hydrogen chloride, hydrogen cyanide and ammonia. For detecting these chemical species, classic absorption spectroscopy has been used for many decades, but the sensitivity of steady-state methods is often unsuitable for the detection of trace compounds at the low levels (parts per million to parts per billion) appropriate for scientific purposes. This is particularly so for monitoring equipment, which must be compact and cost-effective, and which is often subjected to shock, vibration, and other environmental effects that can severely degrade the performance of high-sensitivity spectrometers in an aircraft. Steady-state techniques also suffer from a lack of specificity; the deconvolution of the spectra of complex mixtures is a laborious and error prone process. These problems are exacerbated in remote fiber-optic monitoring where, for practical reasons, the fundamental absorbance region of the spectrum (often between 3 and 8 microns) is inaccessible, and the low-strength, closely spaced, near-infrared overtone absorbance bands must be used. We circumvented these challenges by employing correlation spectroscopy, a variation of modulation spectroscopy.

Goswami, K.↗

Data Descriptor: A Land Data Assimilation System for Sub-Saharan Africa Food and Water Security Applications

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWSNETs operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

albedo↗

Investigation of the performance characteristics of Doppler radar technique for aircraft collision hazard warning, phase 3

System studies, equipment simulation, hardware development and flight tests which were conducted during the development of aircraft collision hazard warning system are discussed. The system uses a cooperative, continuous wave Doppler radar principle with pseudo-random frequency modulation. The report presents a description of the system operation and deals at length with the use of pseudo-random coding techniques. In addition, the use of mathematical modeling and computer simulation to determine the alarm statistics and system saturation characteristics in terminal area traffic of variable density is discussed.

Source record↗

Disaster warning satellite study

The Disaster Warning Satellite System is described. It will provide NOAA with an independent, mass communication system for the purpose of warning the public of impending disaster and issuing bulletins for corrective action to protect lives and property. The system consists of three major segments. The first segment is the network of state or regional offices that communicate with the central ground station; the second segment is the satellite that relays information from ground stations to home receivers; the third segment is composed of the home receivers that receive information from the satellite and provide an audio output to the public. The ground stations required in this system are linked together by two, separate, voice bandwidth communication channels on the Disaster Warning Satellites so that a communications link would be available in the event of disruption of land line service.

Source record↗

Spectrally balanced chromatic landing approach lighting system

Red warning lights delineate the runway approach with additional blue lights juxtaposed with the red lights such that the red lights are chromatically balanced. The red/blue point light sources result in the phenomenon that the red lights appear in front of the blue lights with about one and one-half times the diameter of the blue. To a pilot observing these lights along a glide path, those red lights directly below appear to be nearer than the blue lights. For those lights farther away seen in perspective at oblique angles, the red lights appear to be in a position closer to the pilot and hence appear to be above the corresponding blue lights. This produces a very pronounced three dimensional effect referred to as chromostereopsis which provides valuable visual cues to enable the pilot to perceive his actual position above the ground and the actual distance to the runway.

Chase, W. D.↗

High performance dash-on-warning air mobile missile system

Because fixed missile bases have become increasingly vulnerable to strategic nuclear attack, an air-mobile missile system is proposed, whereby ICBMs can be launched from the hold of large subsonic aircraft following a missile-assisted supersonic dash of the aircraft to a safe distance from their base (about 50 n mi). Three major categories of vehicle design are presented: staged, which employs vertical take-off and a single solid rocket booster similar to that used on the Space Shuttle; unstaged, which employs vertical take-off and four internally-carried reusable liquid rocket engines; and alternative concepts, some using horizontal take-off with duct-burning afterburners. Attention is given to the economics of maintaining 200 ICBMs airborne during an alert (about $600 million for each fleet alert, exclusive of acquisition costs). The chief advantages of the system lie in its reduced vulnerability to suprise attack, because it can be launched on warning, and in the possibility for recall of the aircraft if the warning proves to be a false alarm.

Hague, D. S.↗

High performance dash on warning air mobile, missile system

An aircraft-missile system which performs a high acceleration takeoff followed by a supersonic dash to a 'safe' distance from the launch site is presented. Topics considered are: (1) technological feasibility to the dash on warning concept; (2) aircraft and boost trajectory requirements; and (3) partial cost estimates for a fleet of aircraft which provide 200 missiles on airborne alert. Various aircraft boost propulsion systems were studied such as an unstaged cryogenic rocket, an unstaged storable liquid, and a solid rocket staged system. Various wing planforms were also studied. Vehicle gross weights are given. The results indicate that the dash on warning concept will meet expected performance criteria, and can be implemented using existing technology, such as all-aluminum aircraft and existing high-bypass-ratio turbofan engines.

Levin, A. D.↗