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NASA NTRS1999

Retrieval Assimilation and Modeling of Atmospheric Water Vapor from Ground- and Space-Based GPS Networks: Investigation of the Global and Regional Hydrological Cycles

Uncertainty over the response of the atmospheric hydrological cycle (particularly the distribution of water vapor and cloudiness) to anthropogenic forcing is a primary source of doubt in current estimates of global climate sensitivity, which raises severe difficulties in evaluating its likely societal impact. Fortunately, a variety of advanced techniques and sensors are beginning to shed new light on the atmospheric hydrological cycle. One of the most promising makes use of the sensitivity of the Global Positioning System (GPS) to the thermodynamic state, and in particular the water vapor content, of the atmosphere through which the radio signals propagate. Our strategy to derive the maximum benefit for hydrological studies from the rapidly increasing GPS data stream will proceed in three stages: (1) systematically analyze and archive quality-controlled retrievals using state-of-the-art techniques; (2) employ both currently available and innovative assimilation procedures to incorporate these determinations into advanced regional and global atmospheric models and assess their effects; and (3) apply the results to investigate selected scientific issues of relevance to regional and global hydrological studies. An archive of GPS-based estimation of total zenith delay (TZD) data and water vapor where applicable has been established with expanded automated quality control. The accuracy of the GPS estimates is being monitored; the investigation of systematic errors is ongoing using comparisons with water vapor radiometers. Meteorological packages have been implemented. The accuracy and utilization of the TZD estimates has been improved by implementing a troposphere gradient model. GPS-based gradients have been validated as real atmospheric moisture gradients, establishing a link between the estimated gradients and the passage of weather fronts. We have developed a generalized ray tracing inversion scheme that can be used to analyze occultation data acquired from space- or land-based receivers. The National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model (version MM5) has been adapted for Southern California, and assimilation studies are underway. Additional information is contained in the original.

Dickey, Jean O.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Statistical Orbit Determination using the Particle Filter for Incorporating Non-Gaussian Uncertainties

The tracking of space objects requires frequent and accurate monitoring for collision avoidance. As even collision events with very low probability are important, accurate prediction of collisions require the representation of the full probability density function (PDF) of the random orbit state. Through representing the full PDF of the orbit state for orbit maintenance and collision avoidance, we can take advantage of the statistical information present in the heavy tailed distributions, more accurately representing the orbit states with low probability. The classical methods of orbit determination (i.e. Kalman Filter and its derivatives) provide state estimates based on only the second moments of the state and measurement errors that are captured by assuming a Gaussian distribution. Although the measurement errors can be accurately assumed to have a Gaussian distribution, errors with a non-Gaussian distribution could arise during propagation between observations. Moreover, unmodeled dynamics in the orbit model could introduce non-Gaussian errors into the process noise. A Particle Filter (PF) is proposed as a nonlinear filtering technique that is capable of propagating and estimating a more complete representation of the state distribution as an accurate approximation of a full PDF. The PF uses Monte Carlo runs to generate particles that approximate the full PDF representation. The PF is applied in the estimation and propagation of a highly eccentric orbit and the results are compared to the Extended Kalman Filter and Splitting Gaussian Mixture algorithms to demonstrate its proficiency.

Mashiku, Alinda↗

NASA NTRS2017

Contribution of Asteroid Generated Tsunami to the Impact Hazard

The long-standing uncertainty about the importance of asteroid-generated tsunami was addressed at a workshop in August 2016, co-sponsored by NASA and NOAA. Experts from NASA, NOAA, the DoE tri-labs (LLNL, SNL, and LANL), DHS, FEMA, and academia addressed the hazard of tsunami created by asteroid impacts, focusing primarily on NEAs with diameter less than 250m. Participants jointly identified key issues and shared information for nearly a year to coordinate their results for discussion at the workshop. They used modern computational tools to examine 1) Near-field wave generation by the impact; 2) Long-distance wave propagation; 3) Damage from coastal run-up and inundation, and associated hazard. The workshop resulted in broad consensus that the asteroid impact tsunami threat is not as great as previously thought.

Asteroid↗

NASA NTRS2023

Discovery of X-Ray Polarization Angle Rotation in the Jet From Blazar Mrk 421

The magnetic-field conditions in astrophysical relativistic jets can be probed by multiwavelength polarimetry, which has been recently extended to X-rays. For example, one can track how the magnetic field changes in the flow of the radiating particles by observing rotations of the electric vector position angle Ψ. Here we report the discovery of a ΨX rotation in the X-ray band in the blazar Markarian 421 at an average flux state. Across the 5 days of Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer observations on 4–6 and 7–9 June 2022, ΨX rotated in total by ≥360°. Over the two respective date ranges, we find constant, within uncertainties, rotation rates (80 ± 9° per day and 91 ± 8° per day) and polarization degrees (ΠX = 10% ± 1%). Simulations of a random walk of the polarization vector indicate that it is unlikely that such rotation(s) are produced by a stochastic process. The X-ray-emitting site does not completely overlap the radio, infrared and optical emission sites, as no similar rotation of Ψ was observed in quasi-simultaneous data at longer wavelengths. We propose that the observed rotation was caused by a helical magnetic structure in the jet, illuminated in the X-rays by a localized shock propagating along this helix. The optically emitting region probably lies in a sheath surrounding an inner spine where the X-ray radiation is released.

Makarian 421↗

NASA NTRS2019

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation

Accurate knowledge of soil moisture at the continental scale is important for improving predictions of weather, agricultural productivity and natural hazards, but observations of soil moisture at such scales are limited to indirect measurements, either obtained through satellite remote sensing or from meteorological networks. Land surface models simulate soil moisture processes, using observation-based meteorological forcing data, and auxiliary information about soil, terrain and vegetation characteristics. Enhanced estimates of soil moisture and other land surface variables, along with their uncertainty, can be obtained by assimilating observations of soil moisture into land surface models. These assimilation results are of direct relevance for the initialization of hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting systems. The success of the assimilation depends on the choice of the assimilation technique, the nature of the model and the assimilated observations, and, most importantly, the characterization of model and observation error. Systematic differences between satellite-based microwave observations or satellite-retrieved soil moisture and their simulated counterparts require special attention. Other challenges include inferring root-zone soil moisture information from observations that pertain to a shallow surface soil layer, propagating information to unobserved areas and downscaling of coarse information to finer-scale soil moisture estimates. This chapter summarizes state-of-the-art solutions to these issues with conceptual data assimilation examples, using techniques ranging from simplified optimal interpolation to spatial ensemble Kalman filtering. In addition, operational soil moisture assimilation systems are discussed that support numerical weather prediction at ECMWF and provide value-added soil moisture products for the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive mission.

radar backscatter↗

NASA NTRS1992

The effect of temperature on attenuation-correction schemes in rain using polarization propagation differential phase shift

The study elucidates and quantifies differences in the response of the rate of change of polarization propagation differential phase shift Phi, the rate of attenuation for a horizontally/vertically polarized wave A(H,V), and the rate of polarization differential attenuation A(H-V) to temperature. It is shown that if the effects of temperature when estimating A(H) and A(H-V) from Phi are neglected, the average fractional standard error increases only slightly at 9 GHz but significantly at 5 and 3 GHz. Errors at 5 and 3 GHz are about two to three times those at 9 GHz. The performance of Phi-based schemes of attenuation correction at these lower frequencies is much more significantly degraded by temperature uncertainty than at 9 GHz. It is concluded that it is best to use Phi to correct for attenuation at the least-attenuating frequencies.

Jameson, A. R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Challenges Facing Design and Analysis Tools

The design and analysis of future aerospace systems will strongly rely on advanced engineering analysis tools used in combination with risk mitigation procedures. The implications of such a trend place increased demands on these tools to assess off-nominal conditions, residual strength, damage propagation, and extreme loading conditions in order to understand and quantify these effects as they affect mission success. Advances in computer hardware such as CPU processing speed, memory, secondary storage, and visualization provide significant resources for the engineer to exploit in engineering design. The challenges facing design and analysis tools fall into three primary areas. The first area involves mechanics needs such as constitutive modeling, contact and penetration simulation, crack growth prediction, damage initiation and progression prediction, transient dynamics and deployment simulations, and solution algorithms. The second area involves computational needs such as fast, robust solvers, adaptivity for model and solution strategies, control processes for concurrent, distributed computing for uncertainty assessments, and immersive technology. Traditional finite element codes still require fast direct solvers which when coupled to current CPU power enables new insight as a result of high-fidelity modeling. The third area involves decision making by the analyst. This area involves the integration and interrogation of vast amounts of information - some global in character while local details are critical and often drive the design. The proposed presentation will describe and illustrate these areas using composite structures, energy-absorbing structures, and inflatable space structures. While certain engineering approximations within the finite element model may be adequate for global response prediction, they generally are inadequate in a design setting or when local response prediction is critical. Pitfalls to be avoided and trends for emerging analysis tools will be described.

Knight, Norman F., Jr.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Spacecraft Mass Balance as a Diagnostic Tool for Cabin Air Quality

The spacecraft-level mass balance is a powerful tool for diagnosing and decoupling factors influencing cabin air quality, especially with respect to trace contaminant propagation. Successful implementation of this approach relies upon accurate and temporally relevant air quality measurements, which are often challenging to attain for emerging trace contaminants. In addition to the proper interpretation of air quality data trends, a thorough understanding of subsystem-level mass transfer is required to characterize process performance. For many Environmental Control and Life Support System processes, subsystem mass transfer may be predicted based on physicochemical properties and classic unit operation design approaches. Gaps in understanding of process performance should be supplemented with thorough ground testing. A high confidence in the fidelity of one of these two aspects, air quality data or process performance, may help offset uncertainties in the other. At minimum, thresholding assumptions and numerical methods can be imposed to constrain unknown parameters within the physical envelope of the situation at hand. Finally, the complexity of cabin-wide integrated mass balances may be reduced by implementing a phenomenological approach towards subsystem discretization.

Cabin Air-quality↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

BioSentinel Deep Space CubeSat Mission

The BioSentinel mission was recently launched aboard the SLS launch vehicle (LV) as part of the Artemis-1 campaign. This 6U CubeSat carries yeast cells to analyze the effects of radiation at large distances from Earth, becoming the first biological payload in Deep Space. Prelaunch activities included mission design updates, orbit determination rehearsals and the development of a tracking schedule in coordination with the Artemis-1 payload office and the Deep Space Network (DSN). An important influence on the trajectories of Artemis I secondaries was the uncertainty associated with deployment from the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion System (ICPS), the upper stage of the SLS LV. The ICPS was rotating at a rate of 1 rpm; there was also uncertainty in the spin axis attitude, which translated into an unknown clock angle of deployment. The variability in this angle and magnitude of deployment implied the existence of a non-negligible risk of a lunar impact, which was evaluated for various potential launch dates. On November 16 th 2022 BioSentinel successfully deployed from ICPS and the navigation team started to receive tracking data from the DSN and ESA antennas. Soon after deployment, the spacecraft was tumbling and entered safe mode. The mission team recovered the spacecraft and after four tracking passes, we solved for a first ephemeris that was sent to the DSN for better tracking of the spacecraft. After propagating this first ephemeris solution, we determined that we avoided impact with a margin of a few hundred km from the lunar surface. More tracking data over the next few days allowed for a more refined orbit solution predicting a periselene altitude of 406 km and a lunar eclipse lasting 36.5 minutes. Therefore, BioSentinel operators avoided any correction maneuvers on the trajectory and successfully tracked and guide the spacecraft. The spacecraft performed a nominal lunar flyby which provided the pertinent energy to achieve a final Earth-trailing heliocentric orbit. Over the course of two weeks, the mission operators corroborated that the subsystems were functioning as expected after the lunar eclipse and the large ΔV incurred. Science operations started once the mission achieved the nominal orbit in Deep Space. This paper discusses in detail the BioSentinel flight performance, as well as the challenges and lessons learned prior to and during this CubeSat mission.

Andres Dono Perez↗

NASA NTRS1993

Neural control of magnetic suspension systems

The purpose of this research program is to design, build and test (in cooperation with NASA personnel from the NASA Langley Research Center) neural controllers for two different small air-gap magnetic suspension systems. The general objective of the program is to study neural network architectures for the purpose of control in an experimental setting and to demonstrate the feasibility of the concept. The specific objectives of the research program are: (1) to demonstrate through simulation and experimentation the feasibility of using neural controllers to stabilize a nonlinear magnetic suspension system; (2) to investigate through simulation and experimentation the performance of neural controllers designs under various types of parametric and nonparametric uncertainty; (3) to investigate through simulation and experimentation various types of neural architectures for real-time control with respect to performance and complexity; and (4) to benchmark in an experimental setting the performance of neural controllers against other types of existing linear and nonlinear compensator designs. To date, the first one-dimensional, small air-gap magnetic suspension system has been built, tested and delivered to the NASA Langley Research Center. The device is currently being stabilized with a digital linear phase-lead controller. The neural controller hardware is under construction. Two different neural network paradigms are under consideration, one based on hidden layer feedforward networks trained via back propagation and one based on using Gaussian radial basis functions trained by analytical methods related to stability conditions. Some advanced nonlinear control algorithms using feedback linearization and sliding mode control are in simulation studies.

Gray, W. Steven↗

NASA NTRS1994

An analysis of whistler waves at interplanetary shocks

We present an analysis of whistler wave magnetic and electric field amplitude ratios from which we compute wave propagation angles and energies of electrons in resonance with the waves. To do this analysis, we compute the theoretical dependence of ratios of wave components on the whistler wave propagation angle Theta for various combinations of orthogonal wave components. Ratios of wave components that would be observed by a spinning spacecraft are determined, and the effects of arbitrary inclinations of the spacecraft to the ambient magnetic field and to the whistler wave vector are studied. This analysis clearly demonstrates that B/E, the ratio of magnetic to electric field amplitudes, cannot be assumed to be the wave index of refraction, contrary to assumptions of some earlier studies. Therefore previous interpretations of whistler wave observations based on this assumption must be reinvestigated. B/E ratios derived using three orthogonal wave components can be used to unambiguously determine Theta. Using spin plane observations alone, a significant uncertainty occurs in the determination of Theta. Nevertheless, for whistler waves observed downstream of several interplanetary shocks by the Ulysses plasma wave experiment we find that Theta is highly oblique. We suggest that the analysis of wave amplitude ratios used in conjunction with traditional stability analyses provide a promising tool for determining which particle distributions and resonances are likely to be dominant contributors to wave growth.

Lengyel-Frey, D.↗

NASA NTRS2013

North American Tropical Cyclone Landfall and SST: A Statistical Model Study

A statistical-stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to examine the relationship between climate and landfall rates along the North American Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The model draws on archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and one of two different measures of sea surface temperature (SST): 1) SST averaged over the NA subtropics and the hurricane season and 2) this SST relative to the seasonal global subtropical mean SST (termed relSST). Here, the authors focus on SST by holding ENSO to a neutral state. Jackknife uncertainty tests are employed to test the significance of SST and relSST landfall relationships. There are more TC and major hurricane landfalls overall in warm years than cold, using either SST or relSST, primarily due to a basinwide increase in the number of storms. The signal along the coast, however, is complex. Some regions have large and significant sensitivity (e.g., an approximate doubling of annual major hurricane landfall probability on Texas from -2 to +2 standard deviations in relSST), while other regions have no significant sensitivity (e.g., the U.S. mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts). This geographic structure is due to both shifts in the regions of primary TC genesis and shifts in TC propagation.

El Nino↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Global Market Demand Analysis to Guide Conceptual Design of Low-Boom Supersonic Transports

This paper uses a mathematical framework to identify the interdependencies of key variables in supersonic transportation demand analysis. The existing quantitative models for supersonic transportation demand analysis are compared for consistency in modeling the interdependencies. Unlike other quantitative models, the Low-Boom Systems Analysis Model (LBSAM2) can propagate important design characteristics of a supersonic transport aircraft concept to the level of economic metrics (such as the number of future supersonic passengers), with a consistent coupling of the market demand analysis, detailed mission analysis, and low-boom constraint. This allows the use of the detailed demand analysis results from LBSAM2 to maximize the economic viability of a supersonic transport aircraft by finding favorable system-level trades between weight, range, fuel burn, and assumed sonic boom ground noise limit for supersonic overland flight. In this paper, LBSAM2 is integrated with conceptual low-boom design to improve the economic viability of low-boom supersonic transport aircraft. A brief discussion of uncertainties in the LBSAM2 analysis is also included, focusing on their impacts on the relative economic advantages between low-boom concepts.

Consistent coupling of disciplinary analyses↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Global Market Demand Analysis to Guide Conceptual Design of Low-Boom Supersonic Transports

Equilibrium state of supersonic market↗

NASA NTRS2005

CORRELATED ERRORS IN EARTH POINTING MISSIONS

Two different Earth-pointing missions dealing with attitude control and dynamics changes illustrate concerns with correlated error sources and coupled effects that can occur. On the OrbView-2 (OV-2) spacecraft, the assumption of a nearly-inertially-fixed momentum axis was called into question when a residual dipole bias apparently changed magnitude. The possibility that alignment adjustments and/or sensor calibration errors may compensate for actual motions of the spacecraft is discussed, and uncertainties in the dynamics are considered. Particular consideration is given to basic orbit frequency and twice orbit frequency effects and their high correlation over the short science observation data span. On the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft, the switch to a contingency Kalman filter control mode created changes in the pointing error patterns. Results from independent checks on the TRMM attitude using science instrument data are reported, and bias shifts and error correlations are discussed. Various orbit frequency effects are common with the flight geometry for Earth pointing instruments. In both dual-spin momentum stabilized spacecraft (like OV-2) and three axis stabilized spacecraft with gyros (like TRMM under Kalman filter control), changes in the initial attitude state propagate into orbit frequency variations in attitude and some sensor measurements. At the same time, orbit frequency measurement effects can arise from dynamics assumptions, environment variations, attitude sensor calibrations, or ephemeris errors. Also, constant environment torques for dual spin spacecraft have similar effects to gyro biases on three axis stabilized spacecraft, effectively shifting the one-revolution-per-orbit (1-RPO) body rotation axis. Highly correlated effects can create a risk for estimation errors particularly when a mission switches an operating mode or changes its normal flight environment. Some error effects will not be obvious from attitude sensor measurement residuals, so some independent checks using imaging sensors are essential and derived science instrument attitude measurements can prove quite valuable in assessing the attitude accuracy.

Steve Bilanow↗

NASA NTRS2006

Lightning Return-Stroke Current Waveforms Aloft, from Measured Field Change, Current, and Channel Geometry

Three-dimensional reconstructions of six rocket-triggered lightning channels are derived from stereo photographs. These reconstructed channels are used to infer the behavior of the current in return strokes above the ground from current waveforms measured at the channel base and electric-field-change waveforms measured at a range of 5.2 kilometers for 24 return strokes in these channels. Streak photographs of 14 of the same strokes are analyzed to determine the rise times, propagation speeds, and amplitudes of relative light intensity for comparison with the electrical inferences. Results include the following: 1) The fine structure of the field-change waveforms that were radiated by these subsequent return strokes can be explained, in large part, by channel geometry. 2) The average 10 - 90% rise time of the stroke current increased by about a factor of seven in our sample, from an observed 0.31 plus or minus 0.17 microseconds at the surface to an inferred 2.2 plus or minus 0.5 microcseconds at 1 kilometer path length above the surface. 3) The three-dimensional propagation speed of the current front averaged 1.80 plus or minus 0.24 X 10(exp 8) meters per second over channel lengths typically greater than 1 kilometer. 4) Assuming that the measured current was entirely due to the return stroke forced an unreasonably large and abrupt reduction in inferred current amplitude over the first few tens of meters above the surface, especially in cases when the leader was bright relative to its stroke. Therefore, a significant fraction of the current at the surface was probably due to the leader, at least in such cases. 5) Peak return-stroke currents decreased by approximately 37 plus or minus 12% from 100 meters to 1 kilometer of path length above the surface. Because of uncertainty about how to partition the measured current between leader and return stroke, we are unable to infer the variation of current amplitude near the ground.

Willett, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Space Weather Impacts to Conjunction Assessment: A NASA Robotic Orbital Safety Perspective

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) recognizes the risk of on-orbit collisions from other satellites and debris objects and has instituted a process to identify and react to close approaches. The charter of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) task is to protect NASA robotic (unmanned) assets from threats posed by other space objects. Monitoring for potential collisions requires formulating close-approach predictions a week or more in the future to determine analyze, and respond to orbital conjunction events of interest. These predictions require propagation of the latest state vector and covariance assuming a predicted atmospheric density and ballistic coefficient. Any differences between the predicted drag used for propagation and the actual drag experienced by the space objects can potentially affect the conjunction event. Therefore, the space environment itself, in particular how space weather impacts atmospheric drag, is an essential element to understand in order effectively to assess the risk of conjunction events. The focus of this research is to develop a better understanding of the impact of space weather on conjunction assessment activities: both accurately determining the current risk and assessing how that risk may change under dynamic space weather conditions. We are engaged in a data-- ]mining exercise to corroborate whether or not observed changes in a conjunction event's dynamics appear consistent with space weather changes and are interested in developing a framework to respond appropriately to uncertainty in predicted space weather. In particular, we use historical conjunction event data products to search for dynamical effects on satellite orbits from changing atmospheric drag. Increased drag is expected to lower the satellite specific energy and will result in the satellite's being 'later' than expected, which can affect satellite conjunctions in a number of ways depending on the two satellites' orbits and the geometry of the conjunction. These satellite time offsets can form the basis of a new technique under development to determine whether space weather perturbations, such as coronal mass ejections, are likely to increase, decrease, or have a neutral effect on the collision risk due to a particular close approach.

Ghrist, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2018

Improving Carbon Estimation of Large Tropical Trees by Linking Airborne Lidar Crown Size to Field Inventory

Quantifying tropical aboveground biomass (agb) is an outstanding challenge that requires knowledge on the 3D structure of forests. Recent studies suggest that the uncertainty in estimating agb of large trees is significantly reduced if tree height and crown size are accounted for in addition to the traditional trunk diameter and wood density. Due to the fact that field inventory techniques are not adapted to characterize the 3D forest structure, crown size metrics (e.g. height and radius) are commonly estimated as a function of trunk diameter using allometric models with limitations in explaining crown variability. Airborne lidar techniques have the potential for characterizing tree height and crown size but are not adapted to estimate trunk diameter, which is a strong predictor of agb. Here, we investigate the synergy of field inventory and airborne lidar techniques to characterize the forest structure by assessing the uncertainty introduced by the field-based allometric models in the estimation of agb at the tree-level. We focus in 1454 large individual trees (trunk diameter > 60 cm) located within the La Selva Biological Station for which we dispose of field observations (trunk diameter and wood density) and lidar derived metrics (tree height and crown radius). We show that the field-based allometric models overestimate tree height and underestimate crown radius. As a result, the allometric approach overestimates the tree-level agb in 0.8 Mg when considering the 1454 individuals and the errors can reach more than 50% of the agb of individual trees. These errors on the large trees agb highly impact on the plot-level results and then propagate to the estimation of carbon stocks at the regional and national-levels.

Clark, David↗