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At least 415 records · Page 23
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DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic parametric skeletal dosimetry model for humans: Anatomical-morphological basis and parameter evaluation

Radiation exposure of the hematopoietic system that results in a radiation dose to bone marrow of more than 100 mGy leads to an increase in the risk of leukemia in humans. Excess relative risk of leukemia was observed in cohorts whose members lived in the territories of the Southern Urals that were radioactively contaminated in the 1950s. As part of the dosimetric support of epidemiological studies of these cohorts, an original methodology for stochastic bone dosimetric modeling was developed, termed the Stochastic Parametric Skeletal Dosimetry (SPSD) model. The purpose of this work was to present the anatomical and morphological bases of the SPSD model, which includes an assessment of the parameters of the microstructure of the trabecular bone in the hematopoietic areas of the human skeleton, as well as a description of the macrostructural division (segmentation) of hematopoietic areas into simple bone segments. As a result, an anatomical-morphological basis of the SPSD model was created based on published data. Data collection work included the analysis of original articles, atlases, manuals, monographs and the formation of primary data files. Data on the duration of hematopoiesis in various parts of the skeleton; and data on age-related changes in the microstructure and linear dimensions of human bones and their segments were analyzed. The paper describes the full set of parameters to be used for the dosimetric model for newborns, children aged 1, 5 and 10 years, as well as for adolescents aged 15 years and adults; for the latter, sex differences in bone size were considered. In total, the SPSD model includes 289 unique basic (bone) phantom segments, each of which is described by 7 or more parameters describing the microstructure, thickness of the cortical layer and linear dimensions. Population variability was estimated for each parameter. The approach to SPSD modeling, i.e., the use of simple geometric shapes, was successfully verified using independent datasets on bone masses and volumes.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive resource allocation for surrogate modeling of systems comprised of multiple disciplines with varying fidelity

We present an adaptive algorithm for constructing surrogate models for integrated systems composed of a set of coupled components. With this goal we introduce ‘coupling’ variables with a priori unknown distributions that allow approximations of each component to be built independently. Once built, the surrogates of the components are combined and used to predict system-level quantities of interest (QoI) at a fraction of the cost of interrogating the full system model. We use a greedy experimental design procedure, based upon a modification of Multi-Index Stochastic Collocation (MISC), to minimize the error of the combined surrogate. This is achieved by refining each component surrogate in accordance with its relative contribution to error in the approximation of the system-level QoI. Our adaptation of MISC is a multi-fidelity procedure that can leverage ensembles of models of varying cost and accuracy, for one or more components, to produce estimates of system-level QoI. Several numerical examples demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach on systems involving feed-forward and feedback coupling. For a fixed computational budget, the proposed algorithm is able to produce approximations that are orders of magnitude more accurate than approximations that treat the integrated system as a black-box.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coarsening dynamics of Ising-nematic order in a frustrated Heisenberg antiferromagnet

We study the phase ordering dynamics of the classical antiferromagnetic 𝐽 1 −𝐽 2 (nearest-neighbor and next-nearest-neighbor couplings) Heisenberg model on the square lattice in the strong frustration regime (𝐽 2 /𝐽 1 > 1/2). While thermal fluctuations preclude any long-range magnetic order at finite temperatures, the system exhibits a long-range spin-driven nematic phase at low temperatures. The transition into the nematic phase is further shown to belong to the two-dimensional Ising universality class based on the critical exponents near the phase transition. Our large-scale stochastic Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert simulations find a two-stage phase ordering when the system is quenched from a high-temperature paramagnetic state into the nematic phase. In the early stage, collinear alignments of spins lead to a locally saturated Ising-nematic order. Once domains of well-defined Ising order are developed, the late-stage relaxation is dominated by curvature-driven domain coarsening, as described by the Allen-Cahn equation. The characteristic size of Ising-nematic domains scales as the square root of time, similar to the kinetic Ising model described by the time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau theory. Our results confirm that the late-stage ordering kinetics of the spin-driven nematic, which is a vestigial order of the frustrated Heisenberg model, belongs to the dynamical universality class of a nonconserved Ising order. Interestingly, the system shows no violation of the superuniversality hypothesis under weak bond disorder. The dynamic scaling invariance is preserved in the presence of weak bond disorder. Here, we also discuss possible applications of our results to materials for which vestigial Ising-nematic order is realized.

Antiferromagnets↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty-Informed Operation Coordination in a Water-Energy Nexus

The widespread deployment of smart heterogeneous technologies and the growing complexity in our modern society calls for effective coordination of the interdependent lifeline networks. In particular, operation coordination of electric power and water infrastructures is urgently needed as the water system is one of the most energy-intensive networks, an interruption in which may quickly evolve into a dramatic societal concern. This paper develops a novel analytic for uncertainty-aware day-ahead operation optimization of the interconnected power and water systems (PaWS). Joint probabilistic constraint (JPC) programming is employed to capture the uncertainties in wind resources and water demand forecasts. The proposed integrated stochastic model is presented as a non-linear non-convex optimization problem, where the non-linear hydraulic constraints in the water network are linearized using piece-wise linearization technique, and the non-convexity is efficiently tackled with a solution methodology to convert the proposed model with JPCs to a tractable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation that can be quickly solved to optimality. Here, the suggested framework is applied to a 15-node commercial-scale water network jointly operated with a power transmission system using a modified IEEE 57-bus test system. The numerical results demonstrate the of the proposed stochastic framework, resulting in cost reduction (13% on average when compared to the traditional setting) and energy saving of the integrated model under different realizations of uncertain renewable energy sources (RESs) and water demand scenarios. Additionally, the scalability of the proposed model is tested on a modified IEEE 118-bus test system connected to five water networks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic Continuous-time Flexibility Scheduling and Pricing in Wholesale Electricity Markets

Large-scale integration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RES) is calling for additional flexibility resources as well as more advanced modeling and optimization techniques to account for the increasing uncertainty and variability in power systems operation. As the RES integration gains momentum, the magnitude and frequency of their variations increase, which may trigger ramping scarcity events in real-time power systems operation. This necessitates revisiting the present definition of power systems flexibility and reserve services to reflect their robustness and adequacy towards sub-interval variations of the load and RES, as well as adjusting the operation models to accommodate the new reserve services. This project took a fundamental approach and aimed at developing continuous-time scheduling and pricing model that accurately models the continuous-time variations of load and RES and efficiently deploys the ramping capability of flexible resources to compensate the sources of variability and uncertainty in the market. In this regard, this project pursued the following goals: Developing stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time optimization models for scheduling of energy storage (ES) systems and flexible loads in wholesale energy markets; Developing the theory and practices of continuous-time locational marginal pricing for valuating energy storage systems and flexible loads in wholesale energy markets; Developing function space solution approach to convert the proposed stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time optimization models into tractable mixed-integer linear optimization models; and Defining flexibility reserve as a new type of reserve in markets that would enable ultimate participation of energy storage devices in provision of services to compensate the variability and uncertainty of RES in electricity markets. This project successfully completed all five major tasks defined in the SOPO, and produced 8 high-impact journal papers, 6 conference papers, 3 published U.S. patents, and one web-based software for continuous-time operation optimization of power systems. The application of the proposed flexibility reserve and the stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time operation scheduling models would modify the forward commitment and schedule of generating units, ES devices and flexible loads, and would line up the resources in such a way that the composition of available resources is better prepared to respond to the sub-hourly variations of the load and renewable resources in real-time operation. Therefore, this project paves the way to sustainable, reliable, and economic integration of renewable energy resources in power system, supporting the progress towards reaching the national targets on energy independence. Even if the proposed models offers a radically different point of view as compared to existing models, it does not alter fundamentally the architecture of power systems operations, nor the complexity of the scheduling problem, so the integration of this project in power systems is extremely practical.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tutorial: Langevin Dynamics methods for aerosol particle trajectory simulations and collision rate constant modeling

The Langevin Dynamics (LD) method (also known in the literature as Brownian Dynamics) is routinely used to simulate aerosol particle trajectories for transport rate constant calculations as well as to understand aerosol particle transport in internal and external fluid flows. This tutorial intends to explain the methodological details of setting up a LD simulation of a population of aerosol particles and to deduce rate constants from an ensemble of classical trajectories. We discuss the applicability and limitations of the translational Langevin equation to model the combined stochastic and deterministic motion of particles in fields of force or fluid flow. The drag force and stochastic “diffusion” force terms that appear in the Langevin equation are discussed elaborately, along with a summary of common forces relevant to aerosol systems (electrostatic, gravity, van der Waals, …); a commonly used first order and a fourth order Runge-Kutta time stepping schemes for linear stochastic ordinary differential equations are presented. A MATLAB® implementation of a LD code for simulating particle settling under gravity using the first order scheme is included for illustration. Scaling analysis of aerosol transport processes and the selection of timestep and domain size for trajectory simulations are demonstrated through two specific aerosol processes: particle diffusion charging and coagulation. Fortran® implementations of the first order and fourth order time-stepping schemes are included for simulating the 3D motion of a particle in a periodic domain. Lastly, potential applications and caveats to the usage of LD are included as a summary.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Renewable electricity capacity planning with uncertainty at multiple scales

Abstract We formulate and compare optimization models of investment in renewable generation using a suite of social planning models that compute optimal generation capacity investments for a hydro-dominated electricity system where inflow uncertainty results in a risk of energy shortage. The models optimize the expected cost of capacity expansion and operation allowing for investments in hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, and thermal plant, as well as battery storage for smoothing load profiles. A novel feature is the integration of uncertain seasonal hydroelectric energy supply and short-term variability in renewable supply in a two-stage stochastic programming framework. The models are applied to data from the New Zealand electricity system and used to estimate the costs of moving to a 100% renewable electricity system by 2035. We also explore the outcomes obtained when applying different forms of CO 2 constraint that limit respectively non-renewable capacity, non-renewable generation, and CO 2 emissions on average, almost surely, or in a chance-constrained setting, and show how our models can be used to investigate the merits of a proposed pumped-hydro scheme in New Zealand’s South Island.

Ferris, Michael C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Approximation for Multi-period Simulation Optimization with Streaming Input Data

We consider a continuous-valued simulation optimization (SO) problem, where a simulator is built to optimize an expected performance measure of a real-world system while parameters of the simulator are estimated from streaming data collected periodically from the system. At each period, a new batch of data is combined with the cumulative data and the parameters are re-estimated with higher precision. The system requires the decision variable to be selected in all periods. Therefore, it is sensible for the decision-maker to update the decision variable at each period by solving a more precise SO problem with the updated parameter estimate to reduce the performance loss with respect to the target system. We define this decision-making process as the multi-period SO problem and introduce a multi-period stochastic approximation (SA) framework that generates a sequence of solutions. Two algorithms are proposed: Re-start SA (ReSA) reinitializes the stepsize sequence in each period, whereas Warm-start SA (WaSA) carefully tunes the stepsizes, taking both fewer and shorter gradient-descent steps in later periods as parameter estimates become increasingly more precise. We show that under suitable strong convexity and regularity conditions, ReSA and WaSA achieve the best possible convergence rate in expected sub-optimality either when an unbiased or a simultaneous perturbation gradient estimator is employed, while WaSA accrues significantly lower computational cost as the number of periods increases. In addition, we present the regularized ReSA, which obviates the need to know the strong convexity constant and achieves the same convergence rate at the expense of additional computation.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2026

Direct Measurement of Diffusion Coefficients: Evidence for Diffusive Stochastic Heating in Collisionless Plasmas

Open questions in collisionless plasma dissipation can be addressed using space-based observations in different astrophysical environments, with implications for both astrophysical and laboratory plasma systems. We study a low-𝛽, highly imbalanced, sub-Alfvénic stream observed by Parker Solar Probe (PSP) to identify and distinguish between signatures of stochastic heating (SH) and resonant heating (RH) by parallel ion cyclotron waves (∥-ICWs). Prior work studying this stream [Trevor A. Bowen et al., Stochastic heating in the sub-Alfvénic solar wind, Phys. Rev. Lett. 135, 255201 (2025)] showed that the SH rate, accounting for intermittency, matched the amplitude of the local energy transfer (LET) rate, while the RH rate did not. This comparison relied on a number of assumptions regarding the nature of the diffusive process and the calculation of the LET rate. We introduce a novel technique of inverting the proton guiding center equation to empirically measure velocity-space diffusion coefficients using three-dimensional proton velocity distribution functions, from the ion electrostatic analyzer (the Solar Probe Analyzer for Ions) on PSP. Measured diffusion coefficients are used to determine phase-space heating rates, leading to a calculation of a fully kinetic heating rate independent of assumptions made in prior work. We show that scale-dependent analytic expressions for SH via noncoherent fluctuations match the empirical measurements from PSP data, provided that we account for intermittency in the heating calculation. In contrast, the derived heating rates for SH that accounts for the effects of the helicity barrier and heating rates for RH via ∥-ICWs do not peak in the same region of velocity space as the empirical measurements, nor do they reach the required magnitude. Our approach provides novel methodology to uniquely identify and constrain heating processes in collisionless plasmas and shows evidence of a Fokker-Planck-like diffusive process in the near-Sun solar wind.

Plasma kinetic theory↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of a nuclear thermal propulsion reactor startup sequence

The research presented in this article describes progress in applying stochastic methods, uncertainty quantification, parametric studies, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated via the radiation transport code Griffin to simulate neutronics. Our goal is to develop a reduced-order (surrogate) model that can be rapidly sampled with perturbations to multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums (CDs), which is itself controlled by a hybrid proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time [Λ] and effective delayed neutron fraction [ β eff ] from a transient Griffin simulation executed via Griffin’s improved quasi-static solver to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions that control the CD rotation angle. By investigating numerous stochastic approaches, we developed a dual-purpose surrogate model of the NTP system, using polynomial regression in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Stochastic Tools Module (STM). The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters, such as coefficients on the PID control or temperature (directly affecting the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate (within 5%) results at speeds orders of magnitude faster (minutes, not days of computational time) than the base model. Once the surrogate model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs as well as the effects of these inputs on the model output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some type of physical interference, or uncertainty may exist in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters, and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system for operating CDs in a functioning NTP system. This work is a scoping study of the MOOSE STM.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effective Action for Relativistic Hydrodynamics from the Crooks Fluctuation Theorem

A new effective theory framework for fluctuating hydrodynamics in the relativistic regime is derived using standard thermodynamical principles and general properties of nonequilibrium stochastic dynamics. For the first time, we establish clear and concise conditions for ensuring that the resulting effective theories are causal, stable, and well-posed within general relativity. Here, these properties are independent of spacetime foliation and are valid in the full nonlinear regime. Out-of-equilibrium fluctuations are constrained by a relativistically covariant version of the Crooks fluctuation theorem, which determines how the entropy production is distributed even when the system is driven by an external force. This leads to an emerging Z 2 symmetry responsible for imposing fluctuation-dissipation relations for n-point correlation functions, which matches the standard constraints for the Schwinger-Keldysh effective action.

Fluctuation theorems↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dynamics of phage-host interactions in Bacteroides fragilis resolved by single-cell transcriptomics

The interactions between lytic phages and their hosts are typically studied in bulk culture, which obscures cell-cell differences in infection susceptibility or expression of protective factors. Here, we use bacterial single-cell RNA sequencing to profile the transcriptomes of ~50,000 cells from cultures of a human pathobiont, Bacteroides fragilis, infected with a lytic bacteriophage. From a single sampling, we quantified the asynchronous progression of phage infection in individual bacterial cells and reconstructed the infection timeline, characterizing both host and phage transcriptomic changes as infection unfolded. Further, we discovered phenotypic subpopulations of bacteria that remained uninfected. Each cell’s vulnerability to phage infection was influenced by expression of multiple genetic loci, most prominently phase-variable capsular polysaccharide (CPS) biosynthesis pathways and an operon predicted to encode fimbrial genes. These findings uncovered genome-wide phase variation and stochasticity that enable bacterial survival and re-growth without acquiring additional mutations. Overall, we establish bacterial single-cell RNA sequencing as a powerful platform for investigating the dynamics of host-phage interactions and revealing the roles of phase variation and stochasticity in bacterial defenses.

Bacteria↗
DOE OSTI2022

The 3D magnetic topology and plasma dynamics in open stochastic magnetic field lines

We report the thermal quench triggered by locked modes is known to be mainly due to open stochastic magnetic field lines connected to the wall boundary. It is essential to understand the 3D structure of open stochastic field lines since it determines the overall plasma dynamics in the system. In this study, we analyze the 3D magnetic topology for two key concepts, the connection length L c and the effective magnetic mirror ratio M eff , and present a comprehensive picture of electron and ion dynamics related to the magnetic topology. The connection length determines the 3D structure of the ambipolar potential, and a sharp potential drop across distinct L c regions induces the E × B transport and mixing across the field line. The confinement of electrons and ions along the field line is determined by the ambipolar potential and [Formula: see text] configuration. Electron and ion temperatures in magnetic hills (M eff < 1) are lower than in magnetic wells (M eff > 1) because particles in magnetic hills are more likely to escape toward the wall boundary along the field line. The mixing between the magnetic wells and hills by E × B and magnetic drift motions results in collisionless detrapping of electrons and ions, which reduces their temperature efficiently. Numerical simulations of two different magnetic configurations demonstrate the importance of the collisionless detrapping mechanism, which could be the main cause of plasma temperature drop during the thermal quench.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nonadiabatic transition paths from quantum jump trajectories

We present a means of studying rare reactive pathways in open quantum systems using transition path theory and ensembles of quantum jump trajectories. This approach allows for the elucidation of reactive paths for dissipative, nonadiabatic dynamics when the system is embedded in a Markovian environment. Here, we detail the dominant pathways and rates of thermally activated processes and the relaxation pathways and photoyields following vertical excitation in a minimal model of a conical intersection. We find that the geometry of the conical intersection affects the electronic character of the transition state as defined through a generalization of a committor function for a thermal barrier crossing event. Similarly, the geometry changes the mechanism of relaxation following a vertical excitation. Relaxation in models resulting from small diabatic coupling proceeds through pathways dominated by pure dephasing, while those with large diabatic coupling proceed through pathways limited by dissipation. The perspective introduced here for the nonadiabatic dynamics of open quantum systems generalizes classical notions of reactive paths to fundamentally quantum mechanical processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neuromorphic heat transport effects in a molecular junction

Understanding energy transport at the nanoscale is an open and fundamental challenge in the molecular sciences with direct implications for the design of new electronics, computing devices, and materials. While nanoscale energy transport under steady-state conditions has been studied extensively, there is much less known about energy transport under time-dependent driving forces, particularly in the far-from-equilibrium regime. In this work, we use nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations and stochastic thermodynamics to investigate energy transport in a well-studied nanoscale system—a molecular junction—subjected to a time-periodic temperature gradient. The primary observation is that molecular junctions can exhibit heat transport hysteresis, a phenomenon in which the heat flux through a system depends not only on the instantaneous value of a time-dependent temperature bias but also on the temporal history of that bias. The presented findings illustrate that molecular junctions can exhibit the specific memory effect—heat transport hysteresis—that is essential for the design of thermal neuromorphic computers. This work elucidates a potential pathway toward the realization of such devices.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Noise-canceling quantum feedback: Non-Hermitian dynamics with applications to state preparation and magic state distillation

Time-continuous quantum measurement allows for the tracking of a quantum system in real time via sequences of short, and individually weak, measurement intervals. Such measurements are necessarily invasive, imparting backaction to the system, and allowing the observer to update their state estimate based on stochastic measurement outcomes. Feedback control then involves real-time interventions by an observer, conditioned on the time-continuous measurement signal that they receive. Here, we consider here diffusive quantum trajectories and focus on the “noise-canceling” subset of feedback protocols that aim to minimize the degree of stochasticity in the dynamics. We derive such a class of feedback operations, showing that under the idealized assumptions of pure states, unit measurement efficiency, and zero time delay in implementing feedback operations, perfectly noise-canceling feedback always exists. We consider the resulting noise-canceled dynamics generated by an effective non-Hermitian Hamiltonian; while non-Hermitian Hamiltonians from continuous monitoring generally describe rare dynamics (accessible by costly postselection), the use of noise-canceling feedback here leads to non-Hermitian dynamics that occur deterministically. We demonstrate this via examples of entangled state preparation and stabilization. We then illustrate the potential for the application of noise cancellation to boost success rates in magic state distillation protocols. We show that adding feedback based on noise cancellation into a time-continuous five-to-one distillation protocol leads to higher probabilities of successful distillation across a range of input errors and increases the threshold on input errors for which the protocol is effective. Our results highlight the efficacy of noise-canceling feedback-aided protocols for quantum state preparation and stabilization tasks.

Karmakar, Tathagata [University of California, Ber↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effective description of ajar systems with a 𝑈⁡(1) symmetry

We introduce the concept of “ajar systems” as an intermediate case between closed and open systems, where the time scale for charge exchange with the environment is parametrically larger than all other characteristic time scales. The Schwinger-Keldysh effective action for such finite-temperature systems exhibits a symmetry group G 1 × G 2 weakly broken to its diagonal subgroup G diag , which we systematically describe using spurion techniques. For G = U(1), we calculate leading-order corrections to correlation functions in both diffusive and spontaneously broken phases. Unlike systems with approximate symmetries where both real and imaginary parts of dispersion relations receive corrections, ajar systems modify only the imaginary part—preserving gapless modes while adding finite damping.

Effective field theory↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sentiment Analysis based Error Detection for Large-Scale Systems

Today's large-scale systems such as High Performance Computing (HPC) Systems are designed/utilized towards exascale computing, inevitably decreasing its reliability due to the increasing design complexity. HPC systems conduct extensive logging of their execution behaviour. In this paper, we leverage the inherent meaning behind the log messages and propose a novel sentiment analysis-based approach for the error detection in large-scale systems, by automatically mining the sentiments in the log messages. Our contributions are four-fold. (1) We develop a machine learning (ML) based approach to automatically build a sentiment lexicon, based on the system log message templates. (2) Using the sentiment lexicon, we develop an algorithm to detect system errors. (3) We develop an algorithm to identify the nodes and components with erroneous behaviors, based on sentiment polarity scores. (4) We evaluate our solution vs. other state-of-the-art machine/deep learning algorithms based on three representative supercomputers' system logs. Experiments show that our error detection algorithm can identify error messages with an average MCC score and f -score of 91% and 96% respectively, while state of the art ML/deep learning model (LSTM) obtains only 67% and 84%. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work leveraging the sentiments embedded in log entries of large-scale systems for system health analysis.

error detection↗