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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A Hybrid Energy System Workflow for Energy Portfolio Optimization

This manuscript develops a workflow, driven by data analytics algorithms, to support the optimization of the economic performance of an Integrated Energy System. The goal is to determine the optimum mix of capacities from a set of different energy producers (e.g., nuclear, gas, wind and solar). A stochastic-based optimizer is employed, based on Gaussian Process Modeling, which requires numerous samples for its training. Each sample represents a time series describing the demand, load, or other operational and economic profiles for various types of energy producers. These samples are synthetically generated using a reduced order modeling algorithm that reads a limited set of historical data, such as demand and load data from past years. Numerous data analysis methods are employed to construct the reduced order models, including, for example, the Auto Regressive Moving Average, Fourier series decomposition, and the peak detection algorithm. All these algorithms are designed to detrend the data and extract features that can be employed to generate synthetic time histories that preserve the statistical properties of the original limited historical data. The optimization cost function is based on an economic model that assesses the effective cost of energy based on two figures of merit: the specific cash flow stream for each energy producer and the total Net Present Value. An initial guess for the optimal capacities is obtained using the screening curve method. The results of the Gaussian Process model-based optimization are assessed using an exhaustive Monte Carlo search, with the results indicating reasonable optimization results. The workflow has been implemented inside the Idaho National Laboratory’s Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The main contribution of this study addresses several challenges in the current optimization methods of the energy portfolios in IES: First, the feasibility of generating the synthetic time series of the periodic peak data; Second, the computational burden of the conventional stochastic optimization of the energy portfolio, associated with the need for repeated executions of system models; Third, the inadequacies of previous studies in terms of the comparisons of the impact of the economic parameters. The proposed workflow can provide a scientifically defendable strategy to support decision-making in the electricity market and to help energy distributors develop a better understanding of the performance of integrated energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Acquire and Test IDAES Framework Components

The cooperation under the Grid Modernization Initiative and the Applied Energy Tri-Laboratory umbrellas requires mutual understanding of capabilities and a common effort to identify gaps existing in the available computational modeling and analysis tools. In this work, we report acquisition and testing of the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) framework, particularly including both electric power systems production cost model simulator Prescient as well as system optimization IDAES itself. Further, we consider the methods in which developments in Prescient and IDAES for grid-energy simulation and optimization may be included in the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE) ecosystem that has been under collaborative development by Idaho National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We propose two integration methods to introduce Prescient and IDAES into existing FORCE automated workflows. One integration involves using Prescient as a market reduced-order model and IDAES models similar to how existing Modelica models are used. The other integration involves wrapping the Prescient-IDAES dispatch optimization process with the stochastic capacity optimization workflow in FORCE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

Stochastic derivative-free optimization using a trust region framework

This study presents a trust region algorithm to minimize a function f when one has access only to noise-corrupted function values f¯. The model-based algorithm dynamically adjusts its step length, taking larger steps when the model and function agree and smaller steps when the model is less accurate. The method does not require the user to specify a fixed pattern of points used to build local models and does not repeatedly sample points. If f is sufficiently smooth and the noise is independent and identically distributed with mean zero and finite variance, we prove that our algorithm produces iterates such that the corresponding function gradients converge in probability to zero. As a result, we present a prototype of our algorithm that, while simplistic in its management of previously evaluated points, solves benchmark problems in fewer function evaluations than do existing stochastic approximation methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

maestro

MÆSTRO stands for Multi-fidelity Adaptive Ensemble Stochastic Trust Region Optimization and it is a plug n play derivate fee stochastic optimization solver. The problem being considered in MÆSTRO involves fitting Monte Carlo simulations that describe complex phenomena to experiments. This is done by finding parameters of the resource intensive and noisy simulation that yield the least squares objective function value to the noisy experimental data. This problem is solved using a stochastic trust-region optimization algorithm where in each iteration, a local approximation of the simulation signal and of the simulation noise is constructed over data, which is obtained by running the simulation at strategically placed design points within the trust-region around the current iterate. Then the simulation components of the objective are replaced by their approximations and this analytical and closed-form optimization problem is solved to find the next iterate within the trust-region. Then the trust region is moved and the iterations continue until a satisfactory convergence criteria is met.

KRISHNAMOORTHY, MOHAN↗
NASA NTRS2010

Vestibular Stochastic Resonance as a Method to Improve Balance Function: Optimization of Stimulus Characteristics

Stochastic resonance (SR) is a mechanism by which noise can assist and enhance the response of neural systems to relevant sensory signals. Application of imperceptible SR noise coupled with sensory input through the proprioceptive, visual, or vestibular sensory systems has been shown to improve motor function. Specifically, studies have shown that that vestibular electrical stimulation by imperceptible stochastic noise, when applied to normal young and elderly subjects, significantly improved their ocular stabilization reflexes in response to whole-body tilt as well as balance performance during postural disturbances. The goal of this study was to optimize the characteristics of the stochastic vestibular signals for balance performance during standing on an unstable surface. Subjects performed a standardized balance task of standing on a block of 10 cm thick medium density foam with their eyes closed for a total of 40 seconds. Stochastic electrical stimulation was applied to the vestibular system through electrodes placed over the mastoid process behind the ears during the last 20 seconds of the test period. A custom built constant current stimulator with subject isolation delivered the stimulus. Stimulation signals were generated with frequencies in the bandwidth of 1-2 Hz and 0.01-30 Hz. Amplitude of the signals were varied in the range of 0- +/-700 micro amperes with the RMS of the signal increased by 30 micro amperes for each 100 micro amperes increase in the current range. Balance performance was measured using a force plate under the foam block and inertial motion sensors placed on the torso and head segments. Preliminary results indicate that balance performance is improved in the range of 10-25% compared to no stimulation conditions. Subjects improved their performance consistently across the blocks of stimulation. Further the signal amplitude at which the performance was maximized was different in the two frequency ranges. Optimization of the frequency and amplitude of the signal characteristics of the stochastic noise signals on maximizing balance performance will have a significant impact in its development as a unique system to aid recovery of function in astronauts after long duration space flight or for people with balance disorders.

Mulavara, Ajitkumar↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic gradient descent for optimization for nuclear systems

The use of gradient descent methods for optimizing k-eigenvalue nuclear systems has been shown to be useful in the past, but the use of k-eigenvalue gradients have proved computationally challenging due to their stochastic nature. ADAM is a gradient descent method that accounts for gradients with a stochastic nature. This analysis uses challenge problems constructed to verify if ADAM is a suitable tool to optimize k-eigenvalue nuclear systems. ADAM is able to successfully optimize nuclear systems using the gradients of k-eigenvalue problems despite their stochastic nature and uncertainty. Furthermore, it is clearly demonstrated that low-compute time, high-variance estimates of the gradient lead to better performance in the optimization challenge problems tested here.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Constant-complexity stochastic simulation algorithm with optimal binning

At the molecular level, biochemical processes are governed by random interactions between reactant molecules, and the dynamics of such systems are inherently stochastic. When the copy numbers of reactants are large, a deterministic description is adequate, but when they are small, such systems are often modeled as continuous-time Markov jump processes that can be described by the chemical master equation. Gillespie’s Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA) generates exact trajectories of these systems, but the amount of computational work required for each step of the original SSA is proportional to the number of reaction channels, leading to computational complexity that scales linearly with the problem size. The original SSA is therefore inefficient for large problems, which has prompted the development of several alternative formulations with improved scaling properties. We describe an exact SSA that uses a table data structure with event time binning to achieve constant computational complexity with respect to the number of reaction channels for weakly coupled reaction networks. We present a novel adaptive binning strategy and discuss optimal algorithm parameters. We compare the computational efficiency of the algorithm to existing methods and demonstrate excellent scaling for large problems. This method is well suited for generating exact trajectories of large weakly coupled models, including those that can be described by the reaction-diffusion master equation that arises from spatially discretized reaction-diffusion processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Optimization of a dry, mixed nuclear fuel storage array for nuclear criticality safety - 14339

A dry storage array of used nuclear fuel at the Idaho National Laboratory contains a mixture of more than twenty different types of research and test reactor fuels. Significant neutronic interaction occurs between fuel canisters within this large storage arrangement of 636 fuel storage canisters. Nuclear criticality safety is maintained primarily by moderation control and through control of neutron interaction and leakage provided by the credited geometry. Over the nearly forty years of operation the collected fuels are now arranged in a configuration that does not minimize the system neutron multiplication factor (k{sub eff}). This creates a concern since the entire remaining facility storage capacity cannot be utilized without exceeding the system minimum subcritical state (k{sub safe}) for ensuring nuclear criticality safety. This work determines a more optimal arrangement for the stored fuels with a goal to minimize the system k{sub eff}, but also with a minimum of potential fuel canister relocation movements. The ultimate goal is to establish a solution for this multiple-objective optimization problem by finding the Pareto Front for maximum k{sub eff} reduction versus the number of canister relocations. The process first required additional analysis of the array by Monte-Carlo neutron transport codes (specifically, MCNP) to gain a greater understanding of the interaction characteristics of the disparate fuel types. Some stored fuels are composed of primarily metallic and oxide components that provide very little inherent moderation, while other fuel types contain graphite or zirconium-hydride which can contribute a significant amount of moderation. These factors cause a complex relationship within a fuel arrangement with respect to thermal utilization and axial leakage probability. The new MCNP analysis was utilized to develop a simplified spreadsheet-based empirical model which simulates the array k{sub eff} result. This empirical model was benchmarked against additional MCNP calculations for various arrangements and then employed in the optimization analysis. A Tabu metaheuristic and stochastic approximation optimization was applied to the empirical model with the optimization function to minimize the array k{sub eff}. The optimization algorithm interrogated the empirical model to determine the optimal rearrangement for up to sixty canister movements. The Pareto Front was found, which shows that a limited number of canister relocation movements could allow the existing thirty-one empty array positions to be filled with common research reactor fuels while also yielding a reduction in the overall array k{sub eff} relative to the current arrangement. This will impart an improvement in the facility utilization while also offering an enhancement in the safety margin. The reduction in array reactivity has been confirmed by a final set of MCNP calculations with the proposed new arrangements. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Stochastic ordering properties and optimal routing control for a class of finite capacity queueing systems

The problem of routing jobs to parallel queues with identical exponential servers and unequal finite buffer capacities is considered. Stochastic ordering and weak majorization properties on critical performance measures are established by means of event-driven inductions. In particular, it is shown that the intuitive 'join the shortest non-full queue' (SNQ) policy is optimal with respect to an overall function that accounts for holding and blocking costs. Moreover, the buffer allocation problem is solved by proving the intuitive result that, for a fixed total buffer capacity, the optimal allocation scheme is the one in which the difference between the maximum and minimum queue capacities is minimized, i.e., becomes either 0 or 1.

Towsley, Don↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust Parameter Design on Dual Stochastic Response Models With Constrained Bayesian Optimization

In engineering system design, minimizing the variations of the quality measurements while guaranteeing their overall quality up to certain levels, namely the robust parameter design (RPD), is crucial. Recent works have dealt with the design of a system whose response-control variables relationship is a deterministic function with a complex shape and function evaluation is expensive. In this work, we propose a Bayesian optimization method for the RPD of stochastic functions. Dual stochastic response models are carefully designed for stochastic functions. The heterogeneous variance of the sample mean is addressed by the predictive mean of the log variance surrogate model in a two-step approach. We establish an acquisition function that favors exploration across the feasible and optimality-improvable regions to effectively and efficiently solve the stochastic constrained optimization problem. Further, the performance of our proposed method is demonstrated by the extensive numerical and case studies. Note to Practitioners-Many manufacturing processes involve undesirable variations, which create variations in the final products. For example, many emerging manufacturing processes, such as nanomanufacturing, involve complex physical and chemical dynamics and transformation, creating variations in the manufacturing output. In such processes, it is crucial to design the manufacturing processes or products so that they have minimum variations in their quality. Meanwhile, it is also important to maintain the overall quality of the designed processes or products. Furthermore, acquiring data from many advanced manufacturing processes is often very costly, especially in the designing stage. In this work, we propose a data-driven method that automatically finds the best setting of manufacturing processes or products with the minimum variations of quality and a given constraint on the average quality satisfied. Our proposed method is used before conducting every experiment; It analyzes the historical data from previous experiments and provides a setting to be used in the next experiment. Our proposed method efficiently utilizes the historical data, and thus finds the best robust setting by conducting only a small number of experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimized attenuated interaction: Enabling stochastic Bethe–Salpeter spectra for large systems

We develop an improved stochastic formalism for the Bethe–Salpeter equation (BSE), based on an exact separation of the effective-interaction W into two parts, W = (W – vW) + vW, where the latter is formally any translationally invariant interaction, vW(r – r'). When optimizing the fit of the exchange kernel vW to W, using a stochastic sampling W, the difference W – vW becomes quite small. Then, in the main BSE routine, this small difference is stochastically sampled. Furthermore, the number of stochastic samples needed for an accurate spectrum is then largely independent of system size. While the method is formally cubic in scaling, the scaling prefactor is small due to the constant number of stochastic orbitals needed for sampling W.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Incorporate day-ahead robustness and real-time incentives for electricity market design

In this paper, we propose a two-stage electricity market framework to explore the participation of distributed energy resources (DERs) in a day-ahead (DA) market and a real-time (RT) market. The objective is to determine the optimal bidding strategies of the aggregated DERs in the DA market and generate online incentive signals for DER-owners to optimize the social-welfare taking into account network operational constraints. Distributionally robust optimization is used to explicitly incorporate data-based statistical information of renewable forecasts into the supply/demand decisions in the DA market. We evaluate the conservativeness of bidding strategies distinguished by different risk aversion settings. In the RT market, a bi-level time-varying optimization problem is proposed to design the online incentive signals to tradeoff the RT imbalance penalty for distribution system operators (DSOs) and the costs of individual DER-owners. This enables tracking their optimal dispatch to provide fast balancing services, in the presence of time-varying network states while satisfying the voltage regulation requirement. Simulation results on both DA wholesale market and RT balancing market demonstrate the necessity of this two-stage design, and its robustness to uncertainties, the performance of convergence, the tracking ability and the feasibility of the resulting network operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multistage economic MPC for systems with a cyclic steady state: A gas network case study

Multistage model predictive control (MPC) provides a robust control strategy for dynamic systems with uncertainties and a setpoint tracking objective. Moreover, extending MPC to minimize an economic cost instead of tracking a pre-calculated optimal setpoint improves controller performance. This paper presents a novel multistage economic nonlinear model predictive control (E-NMPC) framework for dynamic systems operating under uncertainty, with specific application to natural gas transmission networks. A key innovation lies in the integration of cyclic steady-state (CSS) constraints within the multistage MPC formulation, enabling the controller to manage periodic operating conditions commonly observed in energy systems. A Lyapunov-based descent condition is enforced to ensure robust stability of the controller. The multistage economic MPC framework is validated on two gas pipeline case studies, where it successfully minimizes net energy consumption, respects operational constraints under uncertain demand profiles, and guides the network to optimal cyclic operation. The Lyapunov function remains bounded in both case studies, validating the robust stability of multistage E-NMPC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Stochastic Models for an Optimal Blending of Biomass under Cost, Quality and Uncertainty Considerations

Blending biomass materials of different physical or chemical properties provides an opportunity to passively adjust the quality of the feedstock to meet the specifications of the conversion platform. We propose a model which identifies the right mix of biomass to optimize the performance of the Thermochemical conversion process at the minimum cost. This is a chance-constraint programming (CCP) model which takes into account the stochastic nature of biomass availability and quality. The proposed CCP model takes as inputs the physical and chemical properties, and biomass availability. We use the sample average approximation (SAA) method to solve the problem. We develop a case study for South Carolina by using data provided by the Billion Ton Study. We conduct extensive numerical analysis to evaluate the quality of the solutions obtained.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Trust-Region Algorithm in Random Subspaces with Convergence and Expected Complexity Analyses

Here, this work proposes a framework for large-scale stochastic derivative-free optimization (DFO) by introducing STARS, a trust-region method based on iterative minimization in random subspaces. This framework is both an algorithmic and theoretical extension of a random subspace derivative-free optimization (RSDFO) framework, and an algorithm for stochastic optimization with random models (STORM). Moreover, like RSDFO, STARS achieves scalability by minimizing interpolation models that approximate the objective in low-dimensional affine subspaces, thus significantly reducing per-iteration costs in terms of function evaluations and yielding strong performance on largescale stochastic DFO problems. The user-determined dimension of these subspaces, when the latter are defined, for example, by the columns of so-called Johnson-Lindenstrauss transforms, turns out to be independent of the dimension of the problem. For convergence purposes, inspired by the analyses of RSDFO and STORM, both a particular quality of the subspace and the accuracies of random function estimates and models are required to hold with sufficiently high, but fixed, probabilities. Using martingale theory under the latter assumptions, an almost sure global convergence of STARS to a first-order stationary point is shown, and the expected number of iterations required to reach a desired first-order accuracy is proved to be similar to that of STORM and other stochastic DFO algorithms, up to constants.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗