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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Differences in California Climate Projections Produced by Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling

Abstract We compare historical and end‐of‐century temperature and precipitation patterns over California from one dynamically downscaled simulation using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and two simulations statistically downscaled using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA). We uniquely separate causes of differences between dynamically and statistically based future climate projections into differences in historical climate (gridded observations versus regional climate model output) and differences in how these downscaling techniques explicitly handle future climate changes (numerical modeling versus analogs). In these methods, solutions between different downscaling techniques differ more in the future compared to the historical period. Changes projected by LOCA are insensitive to the choice of driving data. Only through dynamical downscaling can we simulate physically consistent regional springtime warming patterns across the Sierra Nevada, while the statistical simulations inherit an unphysical signal from their parent Global Climate Model (GCM) or gridded data. The results of our study clarify why these different techniques produce different outcomes and may also provide guidance on which downscaled products to use for certain impact analyses in California and perhaps other Mediterranean regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Superior Daily and Sub-Daily Precipitation Statistics for Intense and Long-Lived Storms in Global Storm-Resolving Models

Here, daily and sub-daily precipitation statistics are investigated from three global model ensembles: (a) global storm-resolving models (GSRMs) with typical horizontal resolutions of ~4 km, (b) “high”-resolution global models with typical resolutions of ~50 km and (c) “standard”-resolution global models with typical resolutions of ~100 km. Compared to two satellite rainfall datasets, GSRMs convincingly exhibit superior performance for statistics of heavier rain rate events including their diurnal cycle, spatial propagation and the amount contributed by intense precipitation, but not for statistics of weaker or shorter duration precipitation. Both high- and standard-resolution models fail to simulate the correct phase and amplitude of diurnal cycle of precipitation and the propagating convection in the Central US, but high-resolution models show relative improvement in the distribution of precipitation frequency and amount, especially for intense precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Potential Benefits of Handling Mixture Statistics via a Bi-Gaussian EnKF: Tests With All-Sky Satellite Infrared Radiances

The meteorological characteristics of cloudy atmospheric columns can be very different from their clear counterparts. Thus, when a forecast ensemble is uncertain about the presence/absence of clouds at a specific atmospheric column (i.e., some members are clear while others are cloudy), that column's ensemble statistics will contain a mixture of clear and cloudy statistics. Such mixtures are inconsistent with the ensemble data assimilation algorithms currently used in numerical weather prediction. Hence, ensemble data assimilation algorithms that can handle such mixtures can potentially outperform currently used algorithms. In this study, we demonstrate the potential benefits of addressing such mixtures through a bi-Gaussian extension of the ensemble Kalman filter (BGEnKF). The BGEnKF is compared against the commonly used ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) using perfect model observing system simulated experiments (OSSEs) with a realistic weather model (the Weather Research and Forecast model). Synthetic all-sky infrared radiance observations are assimilated in this study. In these OSSEs, the BGEnKF outperforms the EnKF in terms of the horizontal wind components, temperature, specific humidity, and simulated upper tropospheric water vapor channel infrared brightness temperatures. This study is one of the first to demonstrate the potential of a Gaussian mixture model EnKF with a realistic weather model. Our results thus motivate future research toward improving numerical Earth system predictions though explicitly handling mixture statistics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Non‐Intrusive Machine Learning Framework for Debiasing Long‐Time Coarse Resolution Climate Simulations and Quantifying Rare Events Statistics

Abstract Due to the rapidly changing climate, the frequency and severity of extreme weather is expected to increase over the coming decades. As fully‐resolved climate simulations remain computationally intractable, policy makers must rely on coarse‐models to quantify risk for extremes. However, coarse models suffer from inherent bias due to the ignored “sub‐grid” scales. We propose a framework to non‐intrusively debias coarse‐resolution climate predictions using neural‐network (NN) correction operators. Previous efforts have attempted to train such operators using loss functions that match statistics. However, this approach falls short with events that have longer return period than that of the training data, since the reference statistics have not converged. Here, the scope is to formulate a learning method that allows for correction of dynamics and quantification of extreme events with longer return period than the training data. The key obstacle is the chaotic nature of the underlying dynamics. To overcome this challenge, we introduce a dynamical systems approach where the correction operator is trained using reference data and a coarse model simulation nudged toward that reference. The method is demonstrated on debiasing an under‐resolved quasi‐geostrophic model and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). For the former, our method enables the quantification of events that have return period two orders longer than the training data. For the latter, when trained on 8 years of ERA5 data, our approach is able to correct the coarse E3SM output to closely reflect the 36‐year ERA5 statistics for all prognostic variables and significantly reduce their spatial biases.

Barthel Sorensen, B.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observation of the modification of quantum statistics of plasmonic systems

Abstract For almost two decades, researchers have observed the preservation of the quantum statistical properties of bosons in a large variety of plasmonic systems. In addition, the possibility of preserving nonclassical correlations in light-matter interactions mediated by scattering among photons and plasmons stimulated the idea of the conservation of quantum statistics in plasmonic systems. It has also been assumed that similar dynamics underlie the conservation of the quantum fluctuations that define the nature of light sources. So far, plasmonic experiments have been performed in nanoscale systems in which complex multiparticle interactions are restrained. Here, we demonstrate that the quantum statistics of multiparticle systems are not always preserved in plasmonic platforms and report the observation of their modification. Moreover, we show that optical near fields provide additional scattering paths that can induce complex multiparticle interactions. Remarkably, the resulting multiparticle dynamics can, in turn, lead to the modification of the excitation mode of plasmonic systems. These observations are validated through the quantum theory of optical coherence for single- and multi-mode plasmonic systems. Our findings unveil the possibility of using multiparticle scattering to perform exquisite control of quantum plasmonic systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Decoding defect statistics from diffractograms via machine learning

Abstract Diffraction techniques can powerfully and nondestructively probe materials while maintaining high resolution in both space and time. Unfortunately, these characterizations have been limited and sometimes even erroneous due to the difficulty of decoding the desired material information from features of the diffractograms. Currently, these features are identified non-comprehensively via human intuition, so the resulting models can only predict a subset of the available structural information. In the present work we show (i) how to compute machine-identified features that fully summarize a diffractogram and (ii) how to employ machine learning to reliably connect these features to an expanded set of structural statistics. To exemplify this framework, we assessed virtual electron diffractograms generated from atomistic simulations of irradiated copper. When based on machine-identified features rather than human-identified features, our machine-learning model not only predicted one-point statistics (i.e. density) but also a two-point statistic (i.e. spatial distribution) of the defect population. Hence, this work demonstrates that machine-learning models that input machine-identified features significantly advance the state of the art for accurately and robustly decoding diffractograms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Inter‐area oscillation statistical analysis of the U.S. Eastern interconnection

Although extensive studies have been conducted on inter‐area oscillation detection and analysis by using phasor measurement data, few have focused on inter‐area oscillation statistics due to the lack of considerably long‐term and high‐resolution recorded data. A preliminary statistical analysis on the inter‐area oscillations that occurred in the U.S. Eastern interconnection from 2010 to 2015 is presented. These oscillation events were captured and recorded by the wide‐area frequency monitoring network FNET/GridEye. Oscillation occurrence, dominant frequency, damping ratio and oscillation excitation types are investigated to explore the statistical characteristics of the detected inter‐area oscillations. The results from this paper will provide valuable information for system operators and planners regarding network operation and future grid development.

Cui, Yi↗
DOE OSTI2013

Dynamics of the D{sup +}+ H{sub 2}→ HD + H{sup +} reaction at the low energy regime by means of a statistical quantum method

The D{sup +}+H{sub 2}(v= 0, j= 0, 1) → HD+H{sup +} reaction has been investigated at the low energy regime by means of a statistical quantum mechanical (SQM) method. Reaction probabilities and integral cross sections (ICSs) between a collisional energy of 10{sup −4} eV and 0.1 eV have been calculated and compared with previously reported results of a time independent quantum mechanical (TIQM) approach. The TIQM results exhibit a dense profile with numerous narrow resonances down to E{sub c}∼ 10{sup −2} eV and for the case of H{sub 2}(v= 0, j= 0) a prominent peak is found at ∼2.5 × 10{sup −4} eV. The analysis at the state-to-state level reveals that this feature is originated in those processes which yield the formation of rotationally excited HD(v′= 0, j′ > 0). The statistical predictions reproduce reasonably well the overall behaviour of the TIQM ICSs at the larger energy range (E{sub c}⩾ 10{sup −3} eV). Thermal rate constants are in qualitative agreement for the whole range of temperatures investigated in this work, 10–100 K, although the SQM values remain above the TIQM results for both initial H{sub 2} rotational states, j= 0 and 1. The enlargement of the asymptotic region for the statistical approach is crucial for a proper description at low energies. In particular, we find that the SQM method leads to rate coefficients in terms of the energy in perfect agreement with previously reported measurements if the maximum distance at which the calculation is performed increases noticeably with respect to the value employed to reproduce the TIQM results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Potential energy surface fitting by a statistically localized, permutationally invariant, local interpolating moving least squares method for the many-body potential: Method and application to N{sub 4}

Fitting potential energy surfaces to analytic forms is an important first step for efficient molecular dynamics simulations. Here, we present an improved version of the local interpolating moving least squares method (L-IMLS) for such fitting. Our method has three key improvements. First, pairwise interactions are modeled separately from many-body interactions. Second, permutational invariance is incorporated in the basis functions, using permutationally invariant polynomials in Morse variables, and in the weight functions. Third, computational cost is reduced by statistical localization, in which we statistically correlate the cutoff radius with data point density. We motivate our discussion in this paper with a review of global and local least-squares-based fitting methods in one dimension. Then, we develop our method in six dimensions, and we note that it allows the analytic evaluation of gradients, a feature that is important for molecular dynamics. The approach, which we call statistically localized, permutationally invariant, local interpolating moving least squares fitting of the many-body potential (SL-PI-L-IMLS-MP, or, more simply, L-IMLS-G2), is used to fit a potential energy surface to an electronic structure dataset for N{sub 4}. We discuss its performance on the dataset and give directions for further research, including applications to trajectory calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2014

Absolute fragmentation cross sections in atom-molecule collisions: Scaling laws for non-statistical fragmentation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon molecules

We present scaling laws for absolute cross sections for non-statistical fragmentation in collisions between Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH/PAH{sup +}) and hydrogen or helium atoms with kinetic energies ranging from 50 eV to 10 keV. Further, we calculate the total fragmentation cross sections (including statistical fragmentation) for 110 eV PAH/PAH{sup +} + He collisions, and show that they compare well with experimental results. We demonstrate that non-statistical fragmentation becomes dominant for large PAHs and that it yields highly reactive fragments forming strong covalent bonds with atoms (H and N) and molecules (C{sub 6}H{sub 5}). Thus nonstatistical fragmentation may be an effective initial step in the formation of, e.g., Polycyclic Aromatic Nitrogen Heterocycles (PANHs). This relates to recent discussions on the evolution of PAHNs in space and the reactivities of defect graphene structures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2014

The non-statistical dynamics of the {sup 18}O + {sup 32}O{sub 2} isotope exchange reaction at two energies

The dynamics of the {sup 18}O({sup 3}P) + {sup 32}O{sub 2} isotope exchange reaction were studied using crossed atomic and molecular beams at collision energies (E{sub coll}) of 5.7 and 7.3 kcal/mol, and experimental results were compared with quantum statistical (QS) and quasi-classical trajectory (QCT) calculations on the O{sub 3}(X{sup 1}A’) potential energy surface (PES) of Babikov et al. [D. Babikov, B. K. Kendrick, R. B. Walker, R. T. Pack, P. Fleurat-Lesard, and R. Schinke, J. Chem. Phys. 118, 6298 (2003)]. In both QS and QCT calculations, agreement with experiment was markedly improved by performing calculations with the experimental distribution of collision energies instead of fixed at the average collision energy. At both collision energies, the scattering displayed a forward bias, with a smaller bias at the lower E{sub coll}. Comparisons with the QS calculations suggest that {sup 34}O{sub 2} is produced with a non-statistical rovibrational distribution that is hotter than predicted, and the discrepancy is larger at the lower E{sub coll}. If this underprediction of rovibrational excitation by the QS method is not due to PES errors and/or to non-adiabatic effects not included in the calculations, then this collision energy dependence is opposite to what might be expected based on collision complex lifetime arguments and opposite to that measured for the forward bias. While the QCT calculations captured the experimental product vibrational energy distribution better than the QS method, the QCT results underpredicted rotationally excited products, overpredicted forward-bias and predicted a trend in the strength of forward-bias with collision energy opposite to that measured, indicating that it does not completely capture the dynamic behavior measured in the experiment. Thus, these results further underscore the need for improvement in theoretical treatments of dynamics on the O{sub 3}(X{sup 1}A’) PES and perhaps of the PES itself in order to better understand and predict non-statistical effects in this reaction and in the formation of ozone (in which the intermediate O{sub 3}{sup *} complex is collisionally stabilized by a third body). The scattering data presented here at two different collision energies provide important benchmarks to guide these improvements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2014

Wave packet and statistical quantum calculations for the He + NeH{sup +} → HeH{sup +} + Ne reaction on the ground electronic state

A real wave packet based time-dependent method and a statistical quantum method have been used to study the He + NeH{sup +} (v, j) reaction with the reactant in various ro-vibrational states, on a recently calculated ab initio ground state potential energy surface. Both the wave packet and statistical quantum calculations were carried out within the centrifugal sudden approximation as well as using the exact Hamiltonian. Quantum reaction probabilities exhibit dense oscillatory pattern for smaller total angular momentum values, which is a signature of resonances in a complex forming mechanism for the title reaction. Significant differences, found between exact and approximate quantum reaction cross sections, highlight the importance of inclusion of Coriolis coupling in the calculations. Statistical results are in fairly good agreement with the exact quantum results, for ground ro-vibrational states of the reactant. Vibrational excitation greatly enhances the reaction cross sections, whereas rotational excitation has relatively small effect on the reaction. The nature of the reaction cross section curves is dependent on the initial vibrational state of the reactant and is typical of a late barrier type potential energy profile.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Electron transfer statistics and thermal fluctuations in molecular junctions

We derive analytical expressions for probability distribution function (PDF) for electron transport in a simple model of quantum junction in presence of thermal fluctuations. Our approach is based on the large deviation theory combined with the generating function method. For large number of electrons transferred, the PDF is found to decay exponentially in the tails with different rates due to applied bias. This asymmetry in the PDF is related to the fluctuation theorem. Statistics of fluctuations are analyzed in terms of the Fano factor. Thermal fluctuations play a quantitative role in determining the statistics of electron transfer; they tend to suppress the average current while enhancing the fluctuations in particle transfer. This gives rise to both bunching and antibunching phenomena as determined by the Fano factor. The thermal fluctuations and shot noise compete with each other and determine the net (effective) statistics of particle transfer. Exact analytical expression is obtained for delay time distribution. The optimal values of the delay time between successive electron transfers can be lowered below the corresponding shot noise values by tuning the thermal effects.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Lagrangian statistics in weakly forced two-dimensional turbulence

Measurements of Lagrangian single-point and multiple-point statistics in a quasi-two-dimensional stratified layer system are reported. The system consists of a layer of salt water over an immiscible layer of Fluorinert and is forced electromagnetically so that mean-squared vorticity is injected at a well-defined spatial scale r i . Simultaneous cascades develop in which enstrophy flows predominately to small scales whereas energy cascades, on average, to larger scales. Lagrangian correlations and one- and two-point displacements are measured for random initial conditions and for initial positions within topological centers and saddles. Some of the behavior of these quantities can be understood in terms of the trapping characteristics of long-lived centers, the slow motion near strong saddles, and the rapid fluctuations outside of either centers or saddles. We also present statistics of Lagrangian velocity fluctuations using energy spectra in frequency space and structure functions in real space. We compare with complementary Eulerian velocity statistics. We find that simultaneous inverse energy and enstrophy ranges present in spectra are not directly echoed in real-space moments of velocity difference. Nevertheless, the spectral ranges line up well with features of moment ratios, indicating that although the moments are not exhibiting unambiguous scaling, the behavior of the probability distribution functions is changing over short ranges of length scales. Furthermore, implications for understanding weakly forced 2D turbulence with simultaneous inverse and direct cascades are discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Gaussian process based optimization of molecular geometries using statistically sampled energy surfaces from quantum Monte Carlo

Optimization of atomic coordinates and lattice parameters remains a significant challenge to the wide use of stochastic electronic structure methods such as quantum Monte Carlo (QMC). Measurements of the forces and stress tensor by these methods contain statistical errors, challenging conventional gradient-based numerical optimization methods that assume deterministic results. Additionally, forces are not yet available for some methods, wavefunctions, and basis sets and when available may be expensive to compute to sufficiently high statistical accuracy near energy minima, where the energy surfaces are flat. Here, we explore the use of Gaussian process based techniques to sample the energy surfaces and reduce sensitivity to the statistical nature of the problem. We utilize Latin hypercube sampling, with the number of sampled energy points scaling quadratically with the number of optimized parameters. Furthermore, we show these techniques may be successfully applied to systems consisting of tens of parameters, demonstrating QMC optimization of a benzene molecule starting from a randomly perturbed, broken symmetry geometry.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Fully versus constrained statistical fragmentation of carbon clusters and their heteronuclear derivatives

The Microcanonical Metropolis Monte Carlo (MMMC) method has been shown to describe reasonably well fragmentation of clusters composed of identical atomic species. However, this is not so clear in the case of heteronuclear clusters as some regions of phase space might be inaccessible due to the different mobility of the different atomic species, the existence of large isomerization barriers, or the quite different chemical nature of the possible intermediate species. In this paper, we introduce a constrained statistical model that extends the range of applicability of the MMMC method to such mixed clusters. The method is applied to describe fragmentation of isolated clusters with high, moderate, and no heteronuclear character, namely, C n H m , C n N, and C n clusters for which experimental fragmentation branching ratios are available in the literature. We show that the constrained statistical model describes fairly well fragmentation of CnHm clusters in contrast with the poor description provided by the fully statistical model. The latter model, however, works pretty well for both C n and C n N clusters, thus showing that the ultimate reason for this discrepancy is the inability of the MMMC method to selectively explore the whole phase space. This conclusion has driven us to predict the fragmentation patterns of the C 4 N cluster for which experiments are not yet available.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Magnetic imaging and statistical analysis of the metamagnetic phase transition of FeRh with electron spins in diamond

Magnetic imaging based on nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers in diamond has emerged as a powerful tool for probing magnetic phenomena in fields ranging from biology to physics. A key strength of NV sensing is its local-probe nature, enabling high-resolution spatial images of magnetic stray fields emanating from a sample. However, this local character can also form a drawback for analyzing the global properties of a system, such as a phase transition temperature. Here, we address this challenge by using statistical analyses of magnetic-field maps to characterize the first-order temperature-driven metamagnetic phase transition from the antiferromagnetic to the ferromagnetic state in FeRh. After imaging the phase transition and identifying the regimes of nucleation, growth, and coalescence of ferromagnetic domains, we statistically characterize the spatial magnetic-field maps to extract the transition temperature and thermal hysteresis width. By analyzing the spatial correlations of the maps in relation to the magnetocrystalline anisotropy and external magnetic field, we detect a reorientation of domain walls across the phase transition. The employed statistical approach can be extended to the study of other magnetic phenomena with NV magnetometry or other sensing techniques.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the statistical theory of self-gravitating collisionless dark matter flow: High order kinematic and dynamic relations

Dark matter, if it exists, accounts for five times as much as ordinary baryonic matter. To better understand the self-gravitating collisionless dark matter flow on different scales, a statistical theory involving kinematic and dynamic relations must be developed for different types of flow, e.g., incompressible, constant divergence, and irrotational flow. This is mathematically challenging because of the intrinsic complexity of dark matter flow and the lack of a self-closed description of flow velocity. Here, this paper extends our previous work on second-order statistics Xu to kinematic relations of any order for any type of flow. Dynamic relations were also developed to relate statistical measures of different orders. The results were validated by N-body simulations. On large scales, we found that (i) third-order velocity correlations can be related to density correlation or pairwise velocity; (ii) the pth-order velocity correlations follow ∝ a (p+2)/2 for odd p and ∝ a p/2 for even p, where a is the scale factor; (iii) the overdensity δ is proportional to density correlation on the same scale, $\langle$δ$\rangle$∝$\langle$δδ'$\rangle$; (iv) velocity dispersion on a given scale r is proportional to the overdensity on the same scale. On small scales, (i) a self-closed velocity evolution is developed by decomposing the velocity into motion in haloes and motion of haloes; (ii) the evolution of vorticity and enstrophy are derived from the evolution of velocity; (iii) dynamic relations are derived to relate second- and third-order correlations; (iv) while the first moment of pairwise velocity follows $\langle$Δu L $\rangle$=-Har (H is the Hubble parameter), the third moment follows $\langle$(Δu L ) 3 $\rangle$ ∝ ε u ar that can be directly compared with simulations and observations, where ε u ≈ 10 -7 m 2 /s 3 is the constant rate for energy cascade; (v) the pth order velocity correlations follow ∝ a (3p-5)/4 for odd p and ∝ a 3p/4 for even p. Finally, the combined kinematic and dynamic relations lead to exponential and one-fourth power-law velocity correlations on large and small scales, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗