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DOE OSTI2021

Consistency testing for robust phase estimation

In this work, we present an extension to the robust phase estimation protocol, which can identify incorrect results that would otherwise lie outside the expected statistical range. Robust phase estimation is increasingly a method of choice for applications such as estimating the effective process parameters of noisy hardware, but its robustness is dependent on the noise satisfying certain threshold assumptions. We provide consistency checks that can indicate when those thresholds have been violated, which can be difficult or impossible to test directly. We test these consistency checks for several common noise models, and identify two possible checks with high accuracy in locating the point in a robust phase estimation run at which further estimates should not be trusted. One of these checks may be chosen based on resource availability, or they can be used together in order to provide additional verification.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Coherency-Constrained Spectral Clustering for Power Network Reduction

This paper presents a methodology for reducing the complexity of large-scale power network models using spectral clustering, aggregation of electrical components, and cost function approximation. Two approaches are explored using unconstrained and constrained spectral clustering to determine areas for effective system reduction. Once the system areas are determined, both loads and generators by type are aggregated, and their new cost function is approximated through polynomial curve-fitting or statistical methods. The performance of reduced networks is evaluated in terms of their ability to follow the true daily cost of the original system over a 24-hour period considering a set of several days. Two test systems are taken as test beds. Application of the methodology to a modified version of the IEEE 39-bus system reduces it from 17 generators to a 4-bus system and 9 generators with about 93% of accuracy. Similarly, the IEEE 118-bus system is reduced from 19 generators to a 3-bus system with three aggregated units achieving over 99% of accuracy. These findings address scalability challenges and enhance accuracy for high and mid-loading level conditions, and by aggregating thermal units with similar cost functions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment

Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.

Bayesian hybrid modeling↗

DOE OSTI2020

TuckerMPI: A Parallel C++/MPI Software Package for Large-scale Data Compression via the Tucker Tensor Decomposition

With this study, our goal is compression of massive-scale grid-structured data, such as the multi-terabyte output of a high-fidelity computational simulation. For such data sets, we have developed a new software package called TuckerMPI, a parallel C++/MPI software package for compressing distributed data. The approach is based on treating the data as a tensor, i.e., a multidimensional array, and computing its truncated Tucker decomposition, a higher-order analogue to the truncated singular value decomposition of a matrix. The result is a low-rank approximation of the original tensor-structured data. Compression efficiency is achieved by detecting latent global structure within the data, which we contrast to most compression methods that are focused on local structure. In this work, we describe TuckerMPI, our implementation of the truncated Tucker decomposition, including details of the data distribution and in-memory layouts, the parallel and serial implementations of the key kernels, and analysis of the storage, communication, and computational costs. We test the software on 4.5 and 6.7 terabyte data sets distributed across 100 s of nodes (1,000 s of MPI processes), achieving compression ratios between 100 and 200,000×, which equates to 99--99.999% compression (depending on the desired accuracy) in substantially less time than it would take to even read the same dataset from a parallel file system. Moreover, we show that our method also allows for reconstruction of partial or down-sampled data on a single node, without a parallel computer so long as the reconstructed portion is small enough to fit on a single machine, e.g., in the instance of reconstructing/visualizing a single down-sampled time step or computing summary statistics. The code is available at https://gitlab.com/tensors/TuckerMPI.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of data driven low-rank matrix factorization for accelerated solutions of the Vlasov equation

Low-rank methods have shown success in accelerating simulations of a collisionless plasma described by the Vlasov equation, but still rely on computationally costly linear algebra every time step. We propose a data-driven factorization method using artificial neural networks, specifically with convolutional layer architecture, that trains on existing simulation data. At inference time, the model outputs a low-rank decomposition of the distribution field of the charged particles, and we demonstrate that this step is faster than the standard linear algebra technique. Numerical experiments show that the method achieves comparable reconstruction accuracy for interpolation tasks, generalizing to unseen test data in a manner beyond just memorizing training data; patterns in factorization also inherently followed the same numerical trend as those within algebraic methods (e.g., truncated singular-value decomposition). However, when training on the first 70% of a time-series data and testing on the remaining 30%, the method fails to meaningfully extrapolate. Despite this limiting result, the technique may have benefits for simulations in a statistical steady-state or otherwise showing temporal stability. These results suggest that while the model offers a computationally efficient alternative for datasets with temporal stability, its current formulation is best suited for interpolation rather than for predicting future states in time-evolving systems. This study thus lays the groundwork for further refinement of neural network-based approaches to low-rank matrix factorization in high-dimensional plasma simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Graph-based featurization methods for classifying small molecule compounds

For over a decade, drug-induced liver injury (DILI) has posed significant drawbacks in the synthesis and development of drugs and remains a consequential concern. With finite success within the existing preclinical models, DILI is one of the main causes of drug withdrawal or termination from the market. Particularly, this withdrawal occurs during the late stages of drug development (Kullak-Ublick, 2017). Since DILI is difficult to diagnose and treat, it has become an obstacle in the drug production market that in turn affects clinicians, pharmaceutical companies, and consumers. We propose a method for learning features of DILI-positive drugs based on the graphical relationships and patterns they possess within a network of biological databases. We also train various statistical and machine learning models on these learned features in order to classify the drugs as DILI-positive or negative. Our methods include Random Forest, Neural networks, and logistic regression classification. We utilize labeled DILI-positive and DILI-negative datasets, which were developed by the FDA and the National center for toxicological research, as well as additional literature datasets (Thakkar, 2020) in order to validate our results and assess our featurization and model accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Wave-function-based emulation for nucleon-nucleon scattering in momentum space

Emulators for low-energy nuclear physics can provide fast and accurate predictions of bound-state and scattering observables for applications that require repeated calculations with different parameters, such as Bayesian uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we extend a scattering emulator based on the Kohn variational principle (KVP) to momentum space (including coupled channels) with arbitrary boundary conditions, which enable the mitigation of spurious singularities known as Kohn anomalies. We test it on a modern chiral nucleon-nucleon (N N) interaction, including emulation of the coupled channels. We provide comparisons between a Lippmann-Schwinger equation emulator and our KVP momentum-space emulator for a representative set of neutron-proton (n p) scattering observables, and also introduce a quasi-spline-based approach for the KVP-based emulator. Furthermore, our findings show that while there are some trade-offs between accuracy and speed, all three emulators perform well. Self-contained Jupyter notebooks that generate the results and figures in this paper are publicly available.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scenario Planning Management Actions to Restore Cold Water Stream Habitat: Comparing Mechanistic and Statistical Modeling Approaches

ABSTRACT Under the United States Clean Water Act, states are required to periodically assess state waters to determine compliance with water quality criteria (including temperature) and then to develop total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for impaired waters as necessary to bring them into compliance. We compared the performance of mechanistic stream temperature models (HeatSource, QUAL2K, and QUAL2Kw) applied to the mainstem of three TMDL watersheds (Middle Fork John Day, OR; Wind River, WA; South Fork Nooksack, WA) with that of spatial stream network (SSN) models applied to the full watersheds and used these to evaluate the potential effectiveness of restoration strategies. SSN models performed well with slightly lesser accuracy (RMSE = 0.47–0.87) for mainstem predictions than mechanistic models (RMSE = 0.4) but provided additional benefits to inform management, including information on spatial and temporal heterogeneity of restoration effectiveness throughout the watershed. Of the four scenarios considered (restoration of riparian zones to potential natural vegetation, channel narrowing, increasing flow by restricting irrigation withdrawals, and combined applications), riparian zone restoration was consistently the most effective in reducing temperatures at the outlet, mainstem, and throughout the watersheds. Predicted restoration effectiveness for thermal regimes varied significantly both within and among watersheds. A focus on water quality criteria exceedance only at the watershed outlet or along the mainstem reach can obscure knowledge of restoration potential for fish habitat in tributaries and headwaters, potential for creation of thermal refuge areas along the mainstem critical for maintaining migration corridors, and thermal regime heterogeneity across space and time.

Fuller, M. R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Learning-Based Real-Time Event Identification Using Rich Real PMU Data

A large-scale deployment of phasor measurement units (PMUs) that reveal the inherent physical laws of power systems from a data perspective enables an enhanced awareness of power system operation. However, the high-granularity and non-stationary nature of PMU data and imperfect data quality could bring great technical challenges for real-time system event identification. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a two-stage learning-based framework. In the first stage, a Markov transition field (MTF) algorithm is exploited to extract the latent data features by encoding temporal dependency and transition statistics of PMU data in graphs. Then, a spatial pyramid pooling (SPP)-aided convolutional neural network (CNN) is established to efficiently and accurately identify power events. The proposed method fully builds on and is also tested on a large real-world dataset from several tens of PMU sources (and the corresponding event logs), located across the U.S., with a time span of two consecutive years. We report the numerical results validate that our method has high identification accuracy while showing good robustness against poor data quality.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

A precise measurement of the Z -boson double-differential transverse momentum and rapidity distributions in the full phase space of the decay leptons with the ATLAS experiment at $\sqrt{s}=8$ TeV

This paper presents for the first time a precise measurement of the production properties of the Z boson in the full phase space of the decay leptons. This is in contrast to the many previous precise unfolded measurements per formed in the fiducial phase space of the decay leptons. The measurement is obtained from proton–proton collision data collected by the ATLAS experiment in 2012 at $\sqrt{s}$ = 8 TeV at the LHC and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.2 fb -1 . The results, based on a total of 15.3 million Z boson decays to electron and muon pairs, extend and improve a previous measurement of the full set of angular coefficients describing Z-boson decay. The double-differential cross section distributions in Z-boson transverse momentum pT and rapidity y are measured in the pole region, defined as 80 < m ℓℓ < 100 GeV, over the range |y| < 3.6. The total uncertainty of the normalised cross-section measurements in the peak region of the pT distribution is dominated by statistical uncertainties over the full range and increases as a function of rapidity from 0.5–1.0% for |y| < 2.0 to 2 - 7% at higher rapidities. The results for the rapidity-dependent transverse momentum distributions are compared to state of-the-art QCD predictions, which combine in the best cases approximate N 4 LL resummation with N 3 LO fixed-order per turbative calculations. The differential rapidity distributions integrated over pT are even more precise, with accuracies from 0.2–0.3% for |y| < 2.0 to 0.4–0.9% at higher rapidities, and are compared to fixed-order QCD predictions using the most recent parton distribution functions. The agreement between data and predictions is quite good in most cases.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hierarchical, rotation‐equivariant neural networks to select structural models of protein complexes

Abstract Predicting the structure of multi‐protein complexes is a grand challenge in biochemistry, with major implications for basic science and drug discovery. Computational structure prediction methods generally leverage predefined structural features to distinguish accurate structural models from less accurate ones. This raises the question of whether it is possible to learn characteristics of accurate models directly from atomic coordinates of protein complexes, with no prior assumptions. Here we introduce a machine learning method that learns directly from the 3D positions of all atoms to identify accurate models of protein complexes, without using any precomputed physics‐inspired or statistical terms. Our neural network architecture combines multiple ingredients that together enable end‐to‐end learning from molecular structures containing tens of thousands of atoms: a point‐based representation of atoms, equivariance with respect to rotation and translation, local convolutions, and hierarchical subsampling operations. When used in combination with previously developed scoring functions, our network substantially improves the identification of accurate structural models among a large set of possible models. Our network can also be used to predict the accuracy of a given structural model in absolute terms. The architecture we present is readily applicable to other tasks involving learning on 3D structures of large atomic systems.

Eismann, Stephan↗

DOE OSTI2020

High-Energy X-ray Tomographic Analysis of Precursor Metal Powders (Ti-6Al-4V) Used for Additive Manufacturing

We utilized high-energy x-ray tomography to characterize Ti-6Al-4V metal powders (both as-received and recycled) used in powder-bed additive manufacturing process. The image processing workflow was developed to process and analyze large amount of data objectively by computer program. The distribution of size and shape of the metal particles as well as defect (mainly porosity) inside the particles was analyzed with the statistical representation and resolution in micrometer. The result revealed that circular-shaped porosity with various sizes could be embedded in the powder particles. These porosities could potentially be transferred to the 3D printed part and critically affect the mechanical performance of the component. The present study shows the effectiveness of characterizing metal powders using x-ray imaging techniques where sufficient number of particles can be sampled within tens of minutes with a minimum sample preparation and high accuracy. Clear structural differences in the as-received and recycled powders were delineated that helps in determining the feasibility of using the recycled powders.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cross-scale covariance for material property prediction

A simulation can stand its ground against an experiment only if its prediction uncertainty is known. The unknown accuracy of interatomic potentials (IPs) is a major source of prediction uncertainty, severely limiting the use of large-scale classical atomistic simulations in a wide range of scientific and engineering applications. Here we explore covariance between predictions of metal plasticity, from 178 large-scale (~10 8 atoms) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and a variety of indicator properties computed at small-scales (≤10 2 atoms). All simulations use the same 178 IPs. In a manner similar to statistical studies in public health, we analyze correlations of strength with indicators, identify the best predictor properties, and build a cross-scale “strength-on-predictors” regression model. This model is then used to estimate regression error over the statistical pool of IPs. Small-scale predictors found to be highly covariant with strength are computed using expensive quantum-accurate calculations and used to predict flow strength, within the statistical error bounds established in our study.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Measuring the electron Yukawa coupling via resonant s-channel Higgs production at FCC-ee

The Future Circular Collider (FCC-ee) offers the unique opportunity of studying the Higgs Yukawa coupling to the electron, $y_\mathrm {e}$ , via resonant s -channel production, $\mathrm {e^+e^-}\rightarrow \mathrm {H}$ , in a dedicated run at $\sqrt{s} = m_\mathrm {H}$ . The signature for direct Higgs production is a small rise in the cross sections for particular final states, consistent with Higgs decays, over the expectations for their occurrence due to Standard Model (SM) background processes involving $\mathrm {Z}^*$ , $\gamma ^*$ , or t -channel exchanges alone. Performing such a measurement is remarkably challenging for four main reasons. First, the low value of the e $^\pm $ mass leads to a tiny $y_\mathrm {e}$ coupling and correspondingly small cross section: $\sigma _\mathrm {ee\rightarrow H} \propto m_\mathrm {e}^2 = 0.57$ fb accounting for initial-state $\gamma $ radiation. Second, the $\mathrm {e^+e^-}$ beams must be monochromatized such that the spread of their centre-of-mass (c.m.) energy is commensurate with the narrow width of the SM Higgs boson, $\varGamma _\mathrm {H} = 4.1$ MeV, while keeping large beam luminosities. Third, the Higgs mass must also be known beforehand with a few-MeV accuracy in order to operate the collider at the resonance peak, $\sqrt{s} = m_\mathrm {H}$ . Last but not least, the cross sections of the background processes are many orders-of-magnitude larger than those of the Higgs decay signals. A preliminary generator-level study of 11 Higgs decay channels using a multivariate analysis, which exploits boosted decision trees to discriminate signal and background events, identifies two final states as the most promising ones in terms of statistical significance: $\mathrm {H}\rightarrow gg$ and $\mathrm {H}\rightarrow \mathrm {W}\mathrm {W}^*\!\rightarrow \ell \nu $ + 2 jets. For a benchmark monochromatization with 4.1-MeV c.m. energy spread (leading to $\sigma _\mathrm {ee\rightarrow H} = 0.28$ fb) and 10 ab $^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity, a $1.3\sigma $ signal significance can be reached, corresponding to an upper limit on the e $^\pm $ Yukawa coupling at 1.6 times the SM value: |y e | < 1.6|y e SM | at 95% confidence level, per FCC-ee interaction point per year. Directions for future improvements of the study are outlined.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗

DOE OSTI2021

Statistically bias-corrected and downscaled climate models underestimate the adverse effects of extreme heat on U.S. maize yields

Abstract Efforts to understand and quantify how a changing climate can impact agriculture often rely on bias-corrected and downscaled climate information, making it important to quantify potential biases of this approach. Here, we use a multi-model ensemble of statistically bias-corrected and downscaled climate models, as well as the corresponding parent models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), to drive a statistical panel model of U.S. maize yields that incorporates season-wide measures of temperature and precipitation. We analyze uncertainty in annual yield hindcasts, finding that the CMIP5 models considerably overestimate historical yield variability while the bias-corrected and downscaled versions underestimate the largest weather-induced yield declines. We also find large differences in projected yields and other decision-relevant metrics throughout this century, leaving stakeholders with modeling choices that require navigating trade-offs in resolution, historical accuracy, and projection confidence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Bayesian Approach for Characterizing and Mitigating Gate and Measurement Errors

Various noise models have been developed in quantum computing study to describe the propagation and effect of the noise that is caused by imperfect implementation of hardware. Identifying parameters such as gate and readout error rates is critical to these models. We use a Bayesian inference approach to identify posterior distributions of these parameters such that they can be characterized more elaborately. By characterizing the device errors in this way, we can further improve the accuracy of quantum error mitigation. Experiments conducted on IBM’s quantum computing devices suggest that our approach provides better error mitigation performance than existing techniques used by the vendor. Also, our approach outperforms the standard Bayesian inference method in some scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reconstructing large-scale temperature profiles around z ∼ 6 quasars

ABSTRACT High-redshift quasars ionize He ii into He iii around them, heating the intergalactic medium in the process and creating large regions with elevated temperature. In this work, we demonstrate a method based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) to recover the spatial profile for T0, the temperature at the mean cosmic density, in quasar proximity zones. We train the neural network with synthetic spectra drawn from a Cosmic Reionization on Computers simulation. We discover that the simple CNN is able to recover the temperature profile with an accuracy of ≈1400 K in an idealized case of negligible observational uncertainties. We test the robustness of the CNN and discover that it is robust against the uncertainties in quasar host halo mass, quasar continuum, and ionizing flux. We also find that the CNN has good generality with regard to the hardness of quasar spectra. This shows that with noiseless spectra, one could use a simple CNN to distinguish gas inside or outside the He iii region created by the quasar. Because the size of the He iii region is closely related to the total quasar lifetime, this method has great potential in constraining the quasar lifetime on ∼Myr time-scales. However, noise poses a big problem for accuracy and could downgrade the accuracy to ≈2340 K even for very high signal-to-noise (≳50) spectra. Future studies are needed to reduce the error associated with noise to constrain the lifetimes of reionization epoch quasars with currently available data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗