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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar web page and are updated as new monthly observations become available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to calculate the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 9 monthly observations from the start of the cycle are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Suggs, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to many space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar webpage and are updated as new monthly observations come available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to predict the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The prediction algorithm is applied recursively to produce monthly smoothed solar index values for the remaining of the cycle. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 12 months of observations are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Suggs, Ronnie J.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Statistical study of free magnetic energy and flare productivity of solar active regions

Photospheric vector magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamic Observatory are utilized as the boundary conditions to extrapolate both nonlinear force-free and potential magnetic fields in solar corona. Based on the extrapolations, we are able to determine the free magnetic energy (FME) stored in active regions (ARs). Over 3000 vector magnetograms in 61 ARs were analyzed. We compare FME with the ARs' flare index (FI) and find that there is a weak correlation (<60%) between FME and FI. FME shows slightly improved flare predictability relative to the total unsigned magnetic flux of ARs in the following two aspects: (1) the flare productivity predicted by FME is higher than that predicted by magnetic flux and (2) the correlation between FI and FME is higher than that between FI and magnetic flux. However, this improvement is not significant enough to make a substantial difference in time-accumulated FI, rather than individual flare, predictions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1975

Solar activity and the general absence of hydrostatic equilibrium in an azimuthal magnetic field

It is shown that any temperature variation along the axis of symmetry of an azimuthal field causes continual convective activity. There is no static equilibrium configuration except in very special, and hence improbable, cases. It is suggested that this dynamic effect contributes to the activity associated with the flux tubes extending through the solar photosphere. The X-ray bright spots, evidently caused by the emergence and expansion of small bipolar regions, may be produced in part by the convective effect of an azimuthal field.

Parker, E. N.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Solar activity: The Sun as an X-ray star

The existence and constant activity of the Sun's outer atmosphere are thought to be due to the continual emergence of magnetic fields from the Solar interior and the stressing of these fields at or near the surface layers of the Sun. The structure and activity of the corona are thus symptomatic of the underlying magnetic dynamo and the existence of an outer turbulent convective zone on the Sun. A sufficient condition for the existence of coronal activity on other stars would be the existence of a magnetic dynamo and an outer convective zone. The theoretical relationship between magnetic fields and coronal activity can be tested by Solar observations, for which the individual loop structures can be resolved. A number of parameters however, which enter into the alternative theoretical formulations remain fixed in all Solar observations. To determine whether these are truly parameters of the theory observations need to be extended to nearby stars on which suitable conditions may occur.

Golub, L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Very Large Array-RATAN 600 observations of a solar active region

VLA-RATAN-600 observations of the sun around the partial solar eclipse in July 1990 are discussed. The relatively flat spectrum of the extended emission is attributed to the optically thin thermal bremsstrahlung of electrons trapped in a magnetic loop at coronal temperatures. Step-spectrum sunspot-associated emission is attributed to thermal gyroresonance radiation at different heights along the leg of a loop joining regions of positive magnetic polarity. Comparisons with predicted distributions of gyroresonance radio indicate that compact sunspot-associated sources lie at heights of 2500-17,500 km above the photosphere. Differences in the observed and predicted microwave emission suggest an inhomogeneous distribution of thermal plasma in the corona above the sunspot or the presence of localized flux tubes containing higher density plasma or nonpotential fields.

Bogod, V. M.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Magnetic helicity in emerging solar active regions

Using vector magnetic field data from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument aboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we study magnetic helicity injection into the corona in emerging active regions (ARs) and examine the hemispheric helicity rule. In every region studied, photospheric shearing motion contributes most of the helicity accumulated in the corona. In a sample of 28 emerging ARs, 17 follow the hemisphere rule (61% ± 18% at a 95% confidence interval). Magnetic helicity and twist in 25 ARs (89% ± 11%) have the same sign. The maximum magnetic twist, which depends on the size of an AR, is inferred in a sample of 23 emerging ARs with a bipolar magnetic field configuration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1999

SERTS-95 Measurements of Wavelength Shifts in Coronal Emission Lines Across a Solar Active Region

We used slit spectra from the 1995 flight of Goddard Space Flight Center's Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS-95) to measure wavelength shifts of coronal emission lines in the core of NOAA active region 7870 relative to its immediate surroundings (its "edge"). This method circumvents the unavailability of reliable laboratory rest wavelengths for the observed lines by using wavelengths from the edge spectrum as references. We derived the, SERTS-95 wavelength calibration from measurements of a post-flight laboratory spectrum containing 28 He II and Ne II EUV standard wavelengths known to high accuracy. Wavelength measurements for lines of He I, Ne III, and additional lines of Ne II in the laboratory calibration spectrum provide more accurate values than were previously available, enabling these lines also to serve as future calibration standards. Six solar lines were chosen for this study, namely, He II at 303.78 A, Fe XII at 193.51 A, Fe XIII at 202.05 A, Fe XIV at 211.33 A, Fe XV at 284.15 A, and Fe XVI at 335.41 A. Because these lines are free from known blends in the SERTS-95 spectra and are either intrinsically strong or near the SERTS-95 peak sensitivity, they are our most reliable lines for measuring relative wavelength shifts in the spatially resolved active region core spectra. The iron ions are the hottest ions ever used for this type of analysis. All six lines reveal statistically significant spatial variations in their measured relative wavelength shifts in the active region core, including mixtures of blueshifts and redshifts (each with maximum values corresponding to relative Doppler velocities approximately 15 km/s), indicating a dynamic, turbulent corona. For each of these lines we calculated weighted-average relative Doppler velocities from the wavelength shifts in the spatially resolved core spectra by weighting the shifts in the individual spatial pixels with their respective measurement uncertainties.

Brosius, Jeffery W.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Geomagnetic responses to the solar wind and to solar activity

A unified overview of present knowledge of the geomagnetic response to the dynamic solar wind is reported. The formation of the magnetosphere and the magnetospheric tail is discussed the importance of electric fields is stressed, and the magnetospheric convection of plasma and frozen-in magnetic field lines under the influence of large scale magnetospheric electric fields is outlined. Ionospheric electric fields and currents are intimately related to electric fields and currents in the magnetosphere and the strong coupling between the two regions is discussed. The energy input of the solar wind to the magnetosphere and upper atmosphere is discussed in terms of the reconnection model where interplanetary magnetic field lines merge or connect with the terrestrial field on the sunward side of the magnetosphere. The merging model emphasizes the importance of the interplanetary magnetic field and especially the north-south component. The solar sector structure with its organized magnetic field and embeeded high speed plasma streams is identified as the source of recurrent geomagnetic disturbances while flare associated interplanetary shock waves are the source of most violet and sporadic geomagnetic storms.

Svalgaard, L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Energy Flow Continuity in Solar Active Regions

The models for sunspots are combined into an active region model with consideration for the energy flow beneath active regions. An apparent average energy balance exists between the sunspot deficit and the facular excess, i.e., no 11 year variations in solar luminosity associated with the activity centers. This is seen as a consequence of the upper convection zone's inability to store these significant amounts of energy for periods greatly in excess of weeks. This view is supported by observed active region behavior and detailed numerical modelling. Increases in facular and spot brightness are nearly commensurate, with the faculae outlasting the spots on time scales of the order of weeks to a couple of months. Foukal finds the radiation (deficit from a sunspot blocking model) recovers slowly on a timescale of approximately 83 days.

Schatten, K. H.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Solar activity and changes in atmospheric circulation

Several related investigations of the possible influence of the solar and interplanetary magnetic sector structure on the atmospheric circulation are described. The area of low pressure troughs in the northern hemisphere has a minimum about one day after a warped heliospheric current sheet has been carried past the earth by the solar wind. Possible physical mechanisms could relate to phase changes in meteorological processes, changes in atmospheric electricity or changes in solar extreme ultraviolet irradiation. A quantitative analysis suggests that the accuracy of weather forcasting decreases during the two days after the warped heliospheric current sheet has passed the earth. A description is given of several further investigations in progress.

Wilcox, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

An investigation of the energy balance of solar active regions using the ACRIM irradiance data

The detection of a significant correlation between the solar irradiance, corrected for flux deficit due to sunspots, and both the 205 nm flux and a photometric facular index were examined. A detailed analysis supports facular emission as the more likely source of correlation with the corrected radiance, rather then the error in sunspot correction. A computer program which simulates two dimensional convection in a compressible, stratified medium was investigated. Subroutines to calculate ionization and other thermodynamic variables were also completed.

Petro, L. D.↗