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Multivariate statistical analysis software technologies for astrophysical research involving large data bases

We developed a package to process and analyze the data from the digital version of the Second Palomar Sky Survey. This system, called SKICAT, incorporates the latest in machine learning and expert systems software technology, in order to classify the detected objects objectively and uniformly, and facilitate handling of the enormous data sets from digital sky surveys and other sources. The system provides a powerful, integrated environment for the manipulation and scientific investigation of catalogs from virtually any source. It serves three principal functions: image catalog construction, catalog management, and catalog analysis. Through use of the GID3* Decision Tree artificial induction software, SKICAT automates the process of classifying objects within CCD and digitized plate images. To exploit these catalogs, the system also provides tools to merge them into a large, complete database which may be easily queried and modified when new data or better methods of calibrating or classifying become available. The most innovative feature of SKICAT is the facility it provides to experiment with and apply the latest in machine learning technology to the tasks of catalog construction and analysis. SKICAT provides a unique environment for implementing these tools for any number of future scientific purposes. Initial scientific verification and performance tests have been made using galaxy counts and measurements of galaxy clustering from small subsets of the survey data, and a search for very high redshift quasars. All of the tests were successful, and produced new and interesting scientific results. Attachments to this report give detailed accounts of the technical aspects for multivariate statistical analysis of small and moderate-size data sets, called STATPROG. The package was tested extensively on a number of real scientific applications, and has produced real, published results.

Djorgovski, S. George↗

Multivariate Statistical Analysis Software Technologies for Astrophysical Research Involving Large Data Bases

We developed a package to process and analyze the data from the digital version of the Second Palomar Sky Survey. This system, called SKICAT, incorporates the latest in machine learning and expert systems software technology, in order to classify the detected objects objectively and uniformly, and facilitate handling of the enormous data sets from digital sky surveys and other sources. The system provides a powerful, integrated environment for the manipulation and scientific investigation of catalogs from virtually any source. It serves three principal functions: image catalog construction, catalog management, and catalog analysis. Through use of the GID3* Decision Tree artificial induction software, SKICAT automates the process of classifying objects within CCD and digitized plate images. To exploit these catalogs, the system also provides tools to merge them into a large, complex database which may be easily queried and modified when new data or better methods of calibrating or classifying become available. The most innovative feature of SKICAT is the facility it provides to experiment with and apply the latest in machine learning technology to the tasks of catalog construction and analysis. SKICAT provides a unique environment for implementing these tools for any number of future scientific purposes. Initial scientific verification and performance tests have been made using galaxy counts and measurements of galaxy clustering from small subsets of the survey data, and a search for very high redshift quasars. All of the tests were successful and produced new and interesting scientific results. Attachments to this report give detailed accounts of the technical aspects of the SKICAT system, and of some of the scientific results achieved to date. We also developed a user-friendly package for multivariate statistical analysis of small and moderate-size data sets, called STATPROG. The package was tested extensively on a number of real scientific applications and has produced real, published results.

Djorgovski, S. G.↗

Finding Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) Destinations for Human Exploration: Implications for Astrobiology

The current number of known potential NEA targets for HSF is limited to those objects whose orbital characteristics are similar to that of the Earth. This is due to the projected capabilities of the exploration systems currently under consideration and development at NASA. However, NEAs with such orbital characteristics often have viewing geometries that place them at low solar elongations and thus are difficult to detect from the vicinity of Earth. While ongoing ground-based surveys and data archives maintained by the NEO Program Observation Program Office and the Minor Planet Center (MPC) have provided a solid basis upon which to build, a more complete catalog of the NEO population is required to inform a robust and sustainable HSF exploration program. Since all the present NEO observing assets are currently confined to the vicinity of the Earth, additional effort must be made to provide capabilities for detection of additional HSF targets via assets beyond Earth orbit. A space-based NEO survey telescope located beyond the vicinity of the Earth, has considerable implications for planetary science and astrobiology. Such a telescope will provide foundational knowledge of our Solar System small body population and detect targets of interest for both the HSF and scientific communities. Data from this asset will yield basic characterization data on the NEOs observed (i.e., albedo, size determination, potential for volatiles and organics, etc.) and help down select targets for future HSF missions. Ideally, the most attractive targets from both HSF and astrobiology perspectives are those NEAs that may contain organic and volatile materials, and which could be effectively sampled at a variety of locations and depths. Presented here is an overview of four space-based survey concepts; any one of which after just a few years of operation will discover many highly accessible NEO targets suitable for robotic and human exploration. Such a space-based survey mission will reveal incredible returns for several disciplines including: exploration, in situ resource utilization, planetary defense, and science. Of particular, interest to the scientific

Landis, Rob↗

Using Pipelined XNOR Logic to Reduce SEU Risks in State Machines

Single-event upsets (SEUs) pose great threats to avionic systems state machine control logic, which are frequently used to control sequence of events and to qualify protocols. The risks of SEUs manifest in two ways: (a) the state machine s state information is changed, causing the state machine to unexpectedly transition to another state; (b) due to the asynchronous nature of SEU, the state machine's state registers become metastable, consequently causing any combinational logic associated with the metastable registers to malfunction temporarily. Effect (a) can be mitigated with methods such as triplemodular redundancy (TMR). However, effect (b) cannot be eliminated and can degrade the effectiveness of any mitigation method of effect (a). Although there is no way to completely eliminate the risk of SEU-induced errors, the risk can be made very small by use of a combination of very fast state-machine logic and error-detection logic. Therefore, one goal of two main elements of the present method is to design the fastest state-machine logic circuitry by basing it on the fastest generic state-machine design, which is that of a one-hot state machine. The other of the two main design elements is to design fast error-detection logic circuitry and to optimize it for implementation in a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) architecture: In the resulting design, the one-hot state machine is fitted with a multiple-input XNOR gate for detection of illegal states. The XNOR gate is implemented with lookup tables and with pipelines for high speed. In this method, the task of designing all the logic must be performed manually because no currently available logic synthesis software tool can produce optimal solutions of design problems of this type. However, some assistance is provided by a script, written for this purpose in the Python language (an object-oriented interpretive computer language) to automatically generate hardware description language (HDL) code from state-transition rules.

Le, Martin↗

NEA Scout and Lunar Flashlight: Two NearTerm Interplanetary CubeSat Missions

NASA is developing two small satellite missions as part of the Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Program, both of which will use a solar sail to enable their scientific objectives. Solar sails reflect sunlight from a large, mirror‐like sail made of a lightweight, highly reflective material to provide thrust. This continuous photon pressure provides propellantless thrust, allowing for very high delta V maneuvers in space. Lunar Flashlight, managed by the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, will search for and map volatiles in permanently shadowed lunar craters using a solar sail as a gigantic mirror to steer sunlight into them, then examine the reflected light with a spectrometer. The Lunar Flashlight spacecraft will also use the solar sail to maneuver into a lunar polar orbit. The mission will demonstrate a low‐cost capability to explore, locate and estimate the size and composition of ice deposits on the Moon. The Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) Scout mission, managed by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center will survey and image a Near Earth Asteroid for possible future human exploration using a smallsat propelled by a solar sail. Detections of NEAs are expected to grow in the near future, offering increasing target opportunities. Obtaining and analyzing relevant data about these bodies via robotic precursors before committing a crew to visit them is essential. The NEA Scout spacecraft is nearly identical to the one being developed for Lunar Flashlight, with the science instrument package being the primary difference. The NEA Scout solar sail will provide the primary propulsion taking the 6U cubesat from near the Earth to its final asteroid destination and the Lunar Flashlight sail will provide the propulsion necessary for its spacecraft to enter lunar orbit. Both projects will use an 85 m2 solar sail developed by NASA MSFC. The NEA Scout and Lunar Flashlight flight systems are based on a 6U cubesat form factor, with a stowed envelope of 10 x 20 x 30 cm and a mass of less than 12 kg. The solar sail for NEA Scout and Lunar Flashlight will be based on the technology developed and flown by the NASA NanoSail‐D and The Planetary Society's Lightsail‐A. Four 7 m stainless steel booms wrapped on two spools (two overlapping booms per spool) will be motor deployed and pull the sail from its stowed volume. The sail material will be 3 micron CP1, an aluminized polyimide that was extensively tested for solar sail applications. The sail will spooled rather than Z‐folded. This paper will describe both the Lunar Flashlight and NEA Scout missions and their solar sails.

Johnson, Les↗

Detection of reflector surface from near field phase measurements

The deviation of a reflector antenna surface from a perfect parabolic shape causes degradation of the performance of the antenna. The problem of determining the shape of the reflector surface in a reflector antenna using near field phase measurements is not a new one. A recent issue of the IEEE tansactions on Antennas and Propagation (June 1988) contained numerous descriptions of the use of these measurements: holographic reconstruction or inverse Fourier transform. Holographic reconstruction makes use of measurement of the far field of the reflector and then applies the Fourier transform relationship between the far field and the current distribution on the reflector surface. Inverse Fourier transformation uses the phase measurements to determine the far field pattern using the method of Kerns. After the far field pattern is established, an inverse Fourier transform is used to determine the phases in a plane between the reflector surface and the plane in which the near field measurements were taken. These calculations are time consuming since they involve a relatively large number of operations. A much faster method can be used to determine the position of the reflector. This method makes use of simple geometric optics to determine the path length of the ray from the feed to the reflector and from the reflector to the measurement point. For small physical objects and low frequencies, diffraction effects have a major effect on the error, and the algorithm provides incorrect results. It is believed that the effect is less noticeable for large distortions such as antenna warping, and more noticeable for small, localized distortions such as bumps and depressions such as might be caused by impact damage.

Ida, Nathan↗

Compositional information for the Moon: Some characteristics of current near-IR spectra (telescopic and laboratory)

For the last decade telescopic near infrared spectra have been obtained for small lunar areas. Such spectra, with the ground truth foundation from lunar samples, have been used extensively to address a multitude of problems in lunar science. Much of the near infrared spectral reflectance data from both laboratory and telescopic measurements have recently been compiled in comparable formats and an initial comparative assessment of the available data using selected spectral parameters has been made. The objective is to develop a framework for the systematics of lunar near-IR spectra in order to better interpret spectra of unknown materials in terms of useful compositional information. Each spectrum was first classified according to its general character then a variety of parameters sensitive to mineralogy and alteration products were measured for each spectrum: band width, band strength, absorption band center near 1 micron, band symmetry, continuum slope, etc. The telescopic and laboratory data sets are briefly described. The comparative analysis shows that a few well known lunar spectral properties are evident in both sets, such as the systematic variation in pyroxene composition between the highlands and the mare. However, an additional gabbroic component can be detected in many highland craters.

Pieters, Carle M.↗

Radar Observations from the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar in 2019

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) relies primarily on ground-based radar measurements to characterize the distribution of small debris, down to approximately 3 mm depending upon altitude and the sensor used, in low Earth orbit (LEO). Since the early 1990’s, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Lincoln Laboratory (LL) has been collecting radar measurements for the NASA ODPO under agreements with the U.S. Department of Defense. The Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) is the primary ground-based radar sensor used by the ODPO and provides data on orbital debris down to an approximate size of 5.5 mm below 1000km altitude using the NASA size estimation model (SEM). Since orbital debris of this size are a significant risk to both human and robotic missions in LEO, the sensitivity of this radar makes it a high-value sensor. The NASA ODPO radar measurements are conducted on a continual basis for monitoring and enabling modeling of the orbital debris environment over time. HUSIR observations from 2019 are the most recent snapshot of the environment that has been measured and analyzed to date. In recent years, HUSIR measurements indicated relatively stable populations for the orbital debris objects that it is able to detect. In 2019, several interesting events happened on-orbit, including the start of large constellation deployments into LEO, as well as the Indian anti-satellite test with Microsat-R (International Designator 2019-006A, U.S. Strategic Command Space Surveillance Network catalog number 43947). Due to these events, coupled with a general increase in the number of missions and participants launching missions in recent years, continual monitoring is necessary to determine the effects of this increased activity on the orbital debris environment. This paper will explore the results of the 2019 HUSIR radar measurements, including above-average flux measurements at lower LEO altitudes and the evolution of the flux during the time of observations.

James Murray↗

Radar Observations from the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar in 2019

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) relies primarily on ground-based radar measurements to characterize the distribution of small debris, down to approximately 3 mm depending upon altitude and the sensor used, in low Earth orbit (LEO). Since the early 1990’s, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Lincoln Laboratory (LL) has been collecting radar measurements for the NASA ODPO under agreements with the U.S. Department of Defense. The Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) is the primary ground-based radar sensor used by the ODPO and provides data on orbital debris down to an approximate size of 5.5 mm below 1000km altitude using the NASA size estimation model (SEM). Since orbital debris of this size are a significant risk to both human and robotic missions in LEO, the sensitivity of this radar makes it a high-value sensor. The NASA ODPO radar measurements are conducted on a continual basis for monitoring and enabling modeling of the orbital debris environment over time. HUSIR observations from 2019 are the most recent snapshot of the environment that has been measured and analyzed to date. In recent years, HUSIR measurements indicated relatively stable populations for the orbital debris objects that it is able to detect. In 2019, several interesting events happened on-orbit, including the start of large constellation deployments into LEO, as well as the Indian anti-satellite test with Microsat-R (International Designator 2019-006A, U.S. Strategic Command Space Surveillance Network catalog number 43947). Due to these events, coupled with a general increase in the number of missions and participants launching missions in recent years, continual monitoring is necessary to determine the effects of this increased activity on the orbital debris environment. This paper will explore the results of the 2019 HUSIR radar measurements, including above-average flux measurements at lower LEO altitudes and the evolution of the flux during the time of observations.

James Murray↗

Climate Benchmark Missions: CLARREO

CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is one of the four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC decadal survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to rigorously observe climate change on decade time scales and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change projections such as those used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). A rigorously known accuracy of both decadal change observations as well as climate projections is critical in order to enable sound policy decisions. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through highly accurate and SI traceable decadal change observations sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. The same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. The CLARREO breakthrough in decadal climate change observations is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. These accuracy levels are determined both by the projected decadal changes as well as by the background natural variability that such signals must be detected against. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties of calibration, sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most other missions, all of the CLARREO requirements are judged not by instantaneous accuracy, but instead by accuracy in large time/space scale average decadal changes. Given the focus on decadal climate change, the NRC Decadal Survey concluded that the single most critical issue for decadal change observations was their lack of accuracy and low confidence in observing the small but critical climate change signals. CLARREO is the recommended attack on this challenge, and builds on the last decade of climate observation advances in the Earth Observing System as well as metrological advances at NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and other standards laboratories.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗

High-Resolution Submillimeter and Near-Infrared Studies of the Transition Disk Around Sz 91

To reveal the structures of a transition disk around a young stellar object in Lupus, Sz 91, we have performed aperture synthesis 345 GHz continuum and CO(3--2) observations with the Submillimeter Array (approximately 1" - 3" resolution), and high-resolution imaging of polarized intensity at the K(sub s) -band by using the HiCIAO instrument on the Subaru Telescope (0.25" resolution). Our observations successfully resolved the inner and outer radii of the dust disk to be 65 AU and 170 AU, respectively, which indicates that Sz 91 is a transition disk source with one of the largest known inner holes. The model fitting analysis of the spectral energy distribution reveals an H 2 mass of 2.4×10(exp −3) M(solar mass) in the cold (T less than 30 K) outer part at 65 less than r less than 170 AU by assuming a canonical gas-to-dust mass ratio of 100, although a small amount (greater than 3×10(exp −9) M(solar mass)) of hot (T approximately 180 K) dust possibly remains inside the inner hole of the disk. The structure of the hot component could be interpreted as either an unresolved self-luminous companion body (not directly detected in our observations) or a narrow ring inside the inner hole. Significant CO(3--2) emission with a velocity gradient along the major axis of the dust disk is concentrated on the Sz 91 position, suggesting a rotating gas disk with a radius of 420 AU. The Sz 91 disk is possibly a rare disk in an evolutionary stage immediately after the formation of protoplanets because of the large inner hole and the lower disk mass than other transition disks studied thus far.

canonical gas-to-dust mass ratio↗

Development and Application of NASA SPoRT’s DustTracker-AI Model for Real-Time Identification and Tracking of Dust in Geostationary Satellite Imagery

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center developed the DustTracker-AI model for identifying and tracking dust in NASA/NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imagery in a real-time framework. A training dataset consisting of day and night dust cases was gathered over the southwestern consisting of 115 distinct images and over a million dust pixels and 256 million no dust pixels. The dataset was separated into training (60%), testing (20%), and validation (20%). A simple random forest machine learning model was developed originally to overcome the problem of night-time dust detection and has been expanded to a comprehensive day/night model for dust identification and tracking. This physically-based machine-learning approach uses NASA/NOAA GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager infrared imagery as inputs to the model. The model probability of dust output achieves an Area-Under-Curve (AUC) of 0.97 with a standard deviation of 0.04 for dust cases. For images with dust present, the model correctly labels 85% of dust pixels for all dust images in the validation data set. In conjunction with developing the machine-learning model, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) partnered with NOAA National Weather Service forecast offices to evaluate the model for utility in weather forecasting operations during the 2021 and 2023 late winter-spring seasons. Preliminary evaluation has indicated the majority of forecasters described the DustTracker-AI probabilities as having added confidence to interpreting the Dust RGB and other satellite products to objectively assess the dust extent and trends and increased the amount of time the dust plume could be tracked into the night as compared to use of the Dust RGB. More recently, SPoRT tested small scale events associated with thunderstorm outflow and burn scars to determine the model’s ability to capture local events. This presentation highlights design of the model, validation/evaluation of model performance, and example cases collected during end user product assessments.

Connor H Welch↗

An energy analysis of crack-initiation and arrest in epoxy

The objective of this work is to study fracture processes such as crack initiation and arrest in epoxy. A compact tension specimen with displacement-controlled loading is employed to observe multiple crack initiations and arrests. The energy release rate at crack initiation is significantly higher than that at crack arrest, as has been observed elsewhere. In this study, the difference between these energy release rates is found to depend on specimen size (scale effect), and is quantitatively related to the fracture surface morphology. The scale effect, similar to that in strength theory, is conventionally attributed to the statistics of defects which control the fracture process. Triangular shaped ripples, deltoids, are formed on the fracture surface of the epoxy during the slow sub-critical crack growth, prior to the smooth mirrorlike surface characteristic of fast cracks. The deltoids are complimentary on the two crack faces which excludes any inelastic deformation from consideration. The deltoids are analogous to the ripples created on a river surface downstream from a small obstacle. However, in spite of the expectation based on this analogy and the observed scale effect, there are no 'defects' at the apex of the deltoids detectable down to the 0.1 micron level. This suggests that the formation of deltoids during the slow process of subcritical crack growth is an intrinsic feature of the fracture process itself, triggered by inhomogeneity of material on a submicron scale. This inhomogeneity may be related to a fluctuation in the cross-link density of the epoxy.

Chudnovsky, A.↗

The derived population of luminous supersoft X-ray sources

The existence of a new class of astrophysical object, luminous supersoft X-ray sources, has been established through ROSAT satellite observations and analysis during the past approximately 3 yr. Because most of the radiation emitted by supersoft sources spans a range of wavelengths readily absorbed by interstellar gas, a substantial fraction of these sources may not be detectable with present satellite instrumentation. It is therefore important to derive a reliable estimate of the underlying population, based on the approximately 30 sources that have been observed to date. The work reported here combines the observational results with a theoretical analysis, to obtain an estimate of the total number of sources likely to be present in M31, the Magellanic Clouds, and in our own Galaxy. We find that in M31, where approximately 15 supersoft sources have been identified and roughly an equal number of sources are being investigated as supersoft candidates, there are likely to be approximately 2500 active supersoft sources at the present time. In our own Galaxy, where about four supersoft sources have been detected in the Galactic plane, there are likely to be approximately 1000 active sources. Similarly, with about six and about four (nonforeground) sources observed in the Large (LMC) and Small Magellanic Clouds (SMC), respectively, there should be approximately 30 supersoft sources in the LMC, and approximately 20 in the SMC. The likely uncertainties in the numbers quoted above, and the properties of observable sources relative to those of the total underlying population, are also derived in detail. These results can be scaled to estimate the numbers of supersoft sources likely to be present in other galaxies. The results reported here on the underlying population of supersoft X-ray sources are in good agreement with the results of a prior population synthesis study of the white dwarf accretor model for luminous supersoft X-ray sources. It should be emphasized, however, that the questions asked in these two investigations are distinct, that the approaches taken to answer these questions are largely independent and that the findings of these two studies could in principle have been quite different.

Di Stefano, R.STEFANO↗

Mid Infrared Hydrogen Recombination Line Emission from the Maser Star MWC 349A

We have detected and spectrally resolved the mid-IR hydrogen recombination lines H6(alpha)(12.372 micrometers), H7(alpha)(19.062 micrometers), H7(beta)(l1.309 micrometers) and H8(gamma)(12.385 micrometers) from the star MWC349A. This object has strong hydrogen maser emission (reported in the millimeter and submillimeter hydrogen recombination lines from H36(alpha) to H21(alpha)) and laser emission (reported in the H15(alpha), H12(alpha) and H10(alpha) lines). The lasers/masers are thought to arise predominantly in a Keplerian disk around the star. The mid-IR lines do not show evident signs of lasing, and can be well modeled as arising from the strong stellar wind, with a component arising from a quasi-static atmosphere around the disk, similar to what is hypothesized for the near IR (less than or equal to 4 micrometers) recombination lines. Since populations inversions in the levels producing these mid-IR transitions are expected at densities up to approximately 10(exp 11)/cu cm, these results imply either that the disk does not contain high-density ionized gas over long enough path lengths to produce a gain approximately 1, and/or that any laser emission from such regions is small compared to the spontaneous background emission from the rest of the source as observed with a large beam. The results reinforce the interpretation of the far-IR lines as true lasers.

Smith, Howard A.↗

Surveillance and Control of Malaria Transmission in Thailand using Remotely Sensed Meteorological and Environmental Parameters

These slides address the use of remote sensing in a public health application. Specifically, this discussion focuses on the of remote sensing to detect larval habitats to predict current and future endemicity and identify key factors that sustain or promote transmission of malaria in a targeted geographic area (Thailand). In the Malaria Modeling and Surveillance Project, which is part of the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Applications Program, we have been developing techniques to enhance public health's decision capability for malaria risk assessments and controls. The main objectives are: 1) identification of the potential breeding sites for major vector species; 2) implementation of a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity; 3) implementation of a dynamic transmission model to identify the key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission. The potential benefits are: 1) increased warning time for public health organizations to respond to malaria outbreaks; 2) optimized utilization of pesticide and chemoprophylaxis; 3) reduced likelihood of pesticide and drug resistance; and 4) reduced damage to environment. !> Environmental parameters important to malaria transmission include temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and vegetation conditions. The NASA Earth science data sets that have been used for malaria surveillance and risk assessment include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP, and SIESIP. Textural-contextual classifications are used to identify small larval habitats. Neural network methods are used to model malaria cases as a function of the remotely sensed parameters. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Discrete event simulations are used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. The output of the model includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Results are in good agreement with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired by Coleman et al. over 4.5 years in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in western Thailand. Application of our models is not restricted to the Greater Mekong Subregion. Our models have been applied to malaria in Indonesia, Korea, and other regions in the world with similar success.

Kiang, Richard K.↗

Periodontal Probe Improves Exams, Alleviates Pain

Dentists, comedian Bill Cosby memorably mused, tell you not to pick your teeth with any sharp metal object. Then you sit in their chair, and the first thing they grab is an iron hook!" Conventional periodontal probing is indeed invasive, uncomfortable for the patient, and the results can vary greatly between dentists and even for repeated measurements by the same dentist. It is a necessary procedure, though, as periodontal disease is the most common dental disease, involving the loss of teeth by the gradual destruction of ligaments that hold teeth in their sockets in the jawbone. The disease usually results from an increased concentration of bacteria in the pocket, or sulcus, between the gums and teeth. These bacteria produce acids and other byproducts, which enlarge the sulcus by eroding the gums and the periodontal ligaments. The sulcus normally has a depth of 1 to 2 millimeters, but in patients with early stages of periodontal disease, it has a depth of 3 to 5 millimeters. By measuring the depth of the sulcus, periodontists can have a good assessment of the disease s progress. Presently, there are no reliable clinical indicators of periodontal disease activity, and the best available diagnostic aid, periodontal probing, can only measure what has already been lost. A method for detecting small increments of periodontal ligament breakdown would permit earlier diagnosis and intervention with less costly and time-consuming therapy, while overcoming the problems associated with conventional probing. The painful, conventional method for probing may be destined for the archives of dental history, thanks to the development of ultrasound probing technologies. The roots of ultrasound probes are in an ultrasound-based time-of-flight technique routinely used to measure material thickness and length in the Nondestructive Evaluation Sciences Laboratory at Langley Research Center. The primary applications of that technology have been for corrosion detection and bolt tension measurements (Spinoff 2005). This ultrasound measurement system was adapted to the Periodontal Structures Mapping System, invented at Langley by John A. Companion, under the supervision of Dr. Joseph S. Heyman. Support of the research and development that led to this invention was provided by NASA s Technology Applications Engineering Program and by the Naval Institute for Dental and Biomedical Research, in Great Lakes, Illinois.

Source record↗

Colloids and Nucleation

The objectives of the work funded under this grant were to develop a microphotographic technique and use it to monitor the nucleation and growth of crystals of hard colloidal spheres. Special attention is given to the possible need for microgravity studies in future experiments. A number of persons have been involved in this work. A masters student, Keith Davis, began the project and developed a sheet illumination apparatus and an image processing system for detection and analysis. His work on a segmentation program for image processing was sufficient for his master's research and has been published. A post doctoral student Bernie Olivier and a graduate student Yueming He, who originally suggested the sheet illumination, were funded by another source but along with Keith made photographic series of several samples (that had been made by Keith Davis). Data extraction has been done by Keith, Bernie, Yueming and two undergraduates employed on the grant. Results are published in Langmuir. These results describe the sheet lighting technique as one which illuminates not only the Bragg scattering crystal, but all the crystals. Thus, accurate crystal counts can be made for nucleation rate measurements. The strange crystal length scale reduction, observed in small angle light scattering (SALS) studies, following the initial nucleation and growth period, has been observed directly. The Bragg scattering (and dark) crystal size decreases in the crossover region. This could be an effect due to gravitational forces or due to over- compression of the crystal during growth. Direct observations indicate a complex morphology for the resulting hard sphere crystals. The crystal edges are fairly sharp but the crystals have a large degree of internal structure. This structure is a result of (unstable) growth and not aggregation. As yet unpublished work compares growth exponents data with data obtained by SALS. The nucleation rate density is determined over a broad volume fraction range (0.505 to 0.575) and compared to classical nucleation rate calculations. The experimental nucleation rate density varies with volume fraction more slowly than expected theoretically. Gravity may influence nucleation because crystal nuclei are more dense than the surrounding fluid and may be gravitationally convected. The largest observed crystal size was near volume fraction 0.52. Near the freezing point, crystals should grow to large size because nuclei are sparse and there is plenty of room to grow without contacting other crystals. Near melting the opposite is true, with crystals growing into one another shortly after nucleation. The maximum crystal size seen near 0.52 volume fraction suggests that gravitational stresses are limiting crystal growth near freezing.

Ackerson, Bruce↗