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DOE OSTI2025

Imaging Photonic Resonances within an All‐Dielectric Metasurface via Photoelectron Emission Microscopy

Dielectric metasurfaces, through volume‐type photonic resonances, enable precise control of light‐matter interactions for applications including imaging, holography, and sensing. The application space of dielectric metasurfaces has extended from infrared to visible wavelengths by incorporating high refractive index materials, such as titanium dioxide (TiO 2 ). Understanding the fundamental and fabrication limits for these applications requires metrology with nanoscale resolution, sensitivity to electromagnetic fields within the meta‐atom volume, and far‐field excitation. In this work, photoelectron emission microscopy (PEEM) is used to image field distributions of photonic resonances in a TiO 2 metasurface excited with far‐field, visible‐wavelength illumination. The local volumetric field variations within the meta‐atoms are analyzed as a function of illumination angle and polarization by comparing photoelectron images to finite‐difference time‐domain simulations. This study determines the inelastic mean free path of very low‐energy (<1 eV) photoelectrons to be 35 ± 10 nm, which is comparable to the meta‐atom height thereby highlighting PEEM sensitivity to resonances within the volume. Additionally, the simulations reveal high sensitivity of PEEM images to an in‐plane component of the illumination k ‐vector. These results demonstrate that photoelectron imaging with subwavelength resolution offers unique advantages for examining light‐matter interactions in volume‐type (as opposed to surface) photonic modes within dielectric nanophotonic structures.

electron inelastic mean free path↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improving thermodynamic nudging in the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 2 (EAMv2): strategy and hindcast skills on weather systems

Nudging techniques are commonly employed to constrain atmospheric simulations toward observed states, facilitating model evaluation and sensitivity studies. However, if applied improperly – particularly to thermodynamic variables such as temperature and humidity – nudging can distort physical processes and introduce spurious biases, undermining the credibility of the simulations. This study presents an improved nudging implementation that applies vertically modulated tendencies to reduce adverse impacts on model physics. The framework is tested in version 2 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (EAMv2) using a suite of hindcast simulations nudged toward ERA5 reanalysis. We systematically evaluate the individual and combined effects of nudging wind, temperature, and humidity fields on the model's ability to represent large-scale atmospheric states and high-impact weather systems. Results show that the revised strategy – particularly when nudging temperature and humidity at selected levels – enhances hindcast skill by improving agreement with ERA5 without degrading the hydrological cycle or precipitation processes. Additional improvements in surface temperature, outgoing longwave radiation, and precipitation biases are achieved through targeted nudging of land-surface variables. The proposed approach strengthens the representation of large-scale conditions relevant to tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extratropical cyclones in the low-resolution EAMv2. These findings demonstrate that carefully designed thermodynamic nudging, especially of temperature and humidity, improves the realism of constrained simulations and broadens the utility of nudged EAMv2 for atmospheric modeling, machine learning, and high-impact weather research.

Atmospheric river↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Influence of Shear on Deep Convection Initiation. Part II: Simulations

Abstract This study evaluates a hypothesis for the role of vertical wind shear in deep convection initiation (DCI) that was introduced in Part I by examining behavior of a series of numerical simulations. The hypothesis states, “Initial moist updrafts that exceed a width and shear threshold will ‘root’ within a progressively deeper steering current with time, increase their low-level cloud-relative flow and inflow, widen, and subsequently reduce their susceptibility to entrainment-driven dilution, evolving toward a quasi-steady self-sustaining state.” A theoretical model that embodied key elements of the hypothesis was developed in Part I, and the behavior of this model was explored within a multidimensional environmental parameter space. Remarkably similar behavior is evident in the simulations studied here to that of the theoretical model, both in terms of the temporal evolution of DCI and in the sensitivity of DCI to environmental parameters. Notably, both the simulations and theoretical model experience a bifurcation in outcomes, whereby nascent clouds that are narrower than a given initial radius R 0 threshold quickly decay and those above the R 0 threshold undergo DCI. An important assumption in the theoretical model, which states that the cloud-relative flow of the background environment V CR determines cloud radius R , is scrutinized in the simulations. It is shown that storm-induced inflow is small relative to V CR beyond a few kilometers from the updraft edge, and V CR therefore plays a predominant role in transporting conditionally unstable air to the updraft. Thus, the critical role of V CR in determining R is validated.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Metal-to-Ligand Charge-Transfer Spectrum of a Ru-Bipyridine-Sensitized TiO 2 Cluster from Embedded Multiconfigurational Excited-State Theory

Understanding optical properties of the dye molecule in dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) from first-principles quantum mechanics can contribute to improving the efficiency of such devices. While density functional theory (DFT) and time-dependent DFT have been pivotal in simulating optoelectronic properties of photoanodes used in DSSCs at the atomic scale, questions remain regarding DFT’s adequacy and accuracy to furnish critical information needed to understand the various excited-state processes involved. In this work, we simulate the absorption spectra of a dye-sensitized solar cell analogue, comprised of a Ru-bipyridine (Ru-bpy) dye molecule and a small TiO2 cluster via DFT and via an accurate embedded correlated wavefunction (CW) theory. We generated CW spectra for the adsorbed Ru-bpy dye via a recently introduced capped density functional embedding theory or capped-DFET (to generate the embedding potential that accounts for the interaction of the molecule and the TiO 2 cluster). We then combined capped-DFET with the accurate but expensive multiconfigurational complete active space second-order perturbation theory (CASPT2)—embedded CASPT2. Because the CW theory is conducted on only a portion of the total system in the presence of an embedding potential that describes that portion’s interaction with its environment, we efficiently obtain CW-quality predictions that reflect local properties of the entire system. Specifically, for example, with capped-DFET and embedded CW theory, we can simulate accurately a plethora of metal-to-ligand charge-transfer excited properties at a manageable computational cost. Here, we predict detailed electronic spectra within the visible region, featuring the lowest three singlet and triplet excited states, along with predictions of the singlets’ lifetimes. We illustrated these results using a Jablonski diagram that show the relative energy position of the singlet and longer-lived triplet excited states and analyzed and proposed relaxation paths for the excited state corresponding to the most intense but short-lived absorption (interconversion, intersystem crossing, fluorescence, and phosphorescence) that may lead to longer-lived excited states necessary for efficient charge separation required to generate current in solar cells.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multicode benchmark on simulated Ti K-edge x-ray absorption spectra of Ti-O compounds

X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) is an element-specific materials characterization technique that is sensitive to structural and electronic properties. First-principles simulated XAS has been widely used as a powerful tool to interpret experimental spectra and draw physical insights. Recently, there has also been growing interest in building computational XAS databases to enable data analytics and machine learning applications. However, there are non-trivial differences among commonly used XAS simulation codes, both in underlying theoretical formalism and in technical implementation. Reliable and reproducible computational XAS databases require systematic benchmark studies. In this work, we benchmarked Ti K-edge XAS simulations of ten representative Ti-O binary compounds, which we refer to as the Ti-O-10 dataset, using three state-of-the-art codes: XSPECTRA, OCEAN and exciting. We systematically studied the convergence behavior with respect to the input parameters and developed a workflow to automate and standardize the calculations to ensure converged spectra. Our benchmark comparison considers a 35 eV spectral range starting from the K-edge onset, representative of widely used near-edge spectra. Quantitative comparison over this range is based on Spearman’s rank correlation score (r sp ). Our results show: (1) the two Bethe-Salpeter equation (BSE) codes (OCEAN and exciting) have excellent agreement with an average $r$ $sp$ of 0.998; (2) good agreement is obtained between the core-hole potential code (XSPECTRA) and BSE codes (OCEAN and exciting) with an average $r$ $sp$ of 0.990, and this smaller $r$ $sp$ reflects the noticeable differences in the main edge spectral shape that can be primarily attributed to the difference in the strength of the screened core-hole potential; (3) simulations from both methods overall reproduce well the main experimental spectral features of rutile and anatase, and the different treatments of the screened core-hole potential have visible impact on pre-edge intensities and the peak ratio of the main edge; (4) there exist moderate differences in the relative edge alignment of the three codes with a standard deviation of about 0.2 eV, which arise from multiple contributions including the frozen core approximation, final state effects, and different approximations used for the self-energy correction. In conclusion, our benchmark study provides important standards for first-principles XAS simulations with broad impact in data-driven XAS analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Xylem network connectivity and embolism spread in grapevine( Vitis vinifera L.)

Abstract Xylem networks are vulnerable to the formation and spread of gas embolisms that reduce water transport. Embolisms spread through interconduit pits, but the three-dimensional (3D) complexity and scale of xylem networks means that the functional implications of intervessel connections are not well understood. Here, xylem networks of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) were reconstructed from 3D high-resolution X-ray micro-computed tomography (microCT) images. Xylem network performance was then modeled to simulate loss of hydraulic conductivity under increasingly negative xylem sap pressure simulating drought stress conditions. We also considered the sensitivity of xylem network performance to changes in key network parameters. We found that the mean pit area per intervessel connection was constant across 10 networks from three, 1.5-m stem segments, but short (0.5 cm) segments fail to capture complete network connectivity. Simulations showed that network organization imparted additional resistance to embolism spread beyond the air-seeding threshold of pit membranes. Xylem network vulnerability to embolism spread was most sensitive to variation in the number and location of vessels that were initially embolized and pit membrane vulnerability. Our results show that xylem network organization can increase stem resistance to embolism spread by 40% (0.66 MPa) and challenge the notion that a single embolism can spread rapidly throughout an entire xylem network.

Wason, Jay↗

DOE OSTI2022

Influence of NOx chemistry on the prediction of natural gas end-gas autoignition in CFD engine simulations

Natural gas (NG) represents a promising low-cost/low-emission alternative to diesel fuel when used in high-efficiency internal combustion engines. Advanced combustion strategies utilizing high EGR rates and controlled end-gas autoignition can be implemented with NG to achieve diesel-like efficiencies; however, to support the design of these next-generation NG ICEs, computational tools, including single- and multi-dimensional simulation packages will need to account for the complex chemistry that can occur between the reactive species found in EGR (including NOx) and the fuel. Research has shown that NOx plays an important role in the promotion/inhibition of large hydrocarbon autoignition and when accounted for in CFD engine simulations, can significantly improve the prediction of end-gas autoignition for these fuels. However, reduced NOx-enabled NG mechanisms for use in CFD engine simulations are lacking, and as a result, the influence of NOx chemistry on NG engine operation remains unknown. Here, we analyze the effects of NOx chemistry on the prediction of NG/oxidizer/EGR autoignition and generate a reduced mechanism of a suitable size to be used in engine simulations. Results indicate that NG ignition is sensitive to NOx chemistry, where it was observed that the addition of EGR, which included NOx, promoted NG autoignition. The modified mechanism captured well all trends and closely matched experimentally measured ignition delay times for a wide range of EGR rates and NG compositions. Here, the importance of C2-C3 chemistry is noted, especially for wet NG compositions containing high fractions of ethane and propane. Finally, when utilized in CFD simulations of a Cooperative Fuels Research (CFR) engine, the new reduced mechanism was able to predict the knock onset crank angle (KOCA) to within one crank angle degree of experimental data, a significant improvement compared to previous simulations without NOx chemistry.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Near-Surface Variables in the RUC Land Surface Model in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

In this study, we investigate the parametric sensitivity of near-surface variables, such as sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, ground heat flux, hub-height wind speed and land surface temperature, to the parameters used in the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) during a wintertime and summertime period. The model simulations are compared with observations collected from the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) field campaign. The results suggest that parameters related to snow/ice and thermal processes can have significant impact on the simulated near-surface variables. Out of the 11 examined parameters, only 6 of them have considerable influences on the model behaviors and explain about 60 ~ 80 % of the estimated total variance of the simulated variables. In addition, the magnitude of the parametric sensitivity varies with season. For instance, parameters associated with snow/ice processes are dominant during the wintertime whereas those associated with thermal processes are more important during the summertime. Furthermore, the impact of the identified parameters on the simulated variables is highly related to the topography. There is a high degree of sensitivity to the parameter values over the slope region. This points out the importance of collecting field observations over steep areas to better quantity the appropriate values of key parameters. Overall, our findings provide a better understanding of the RUC LSM behavior associated with parameter uncertainties and can be used to improve the forecasting skill of land surface processes via calibration of the most uncertain model parameters.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity of Arctic Clouds to Ice Microphysical Processes in the NorESM2 Climate Model

Abstract Ice formation remains one of the most poorly represented microphysical processes in climate models. While primary ice production (PIP) parameterizations are known to have a large influence on the modeled cloud properties, the representation of secondary ice production (SIP) is incomplete and its corresponding impact is therefore largely unquantified. Furthermore, ice aggregation is another important process for the total cloud ice budget, which also remains largely unconstrained. In this study, we examine the impact of PIP, SIP, and ice aggregation on Arctic clouds, using the Norwegian Earth System Model, version 2 (NorESM2). Simulations with both prognostic and diagnostic PIP show that heterogeneous freezing alone cannot reproduce the observed cloud ice content. The implementation of missing SIP mechanisms (collisional breakup, drop shattering, and sublimation breakup) in NorESM2 improves the modeled ice properties, while improvements in liquid content occur only in simulations with prognostic PIP. However, results are sensitive to the description of collisional breakup. This mechanism, which dominates SIP in the examined conditions, is very sensitive to the treatment of the sublimation correction factor, a poorly constrained parameter that is included in the utilized parameterization. Finally, variations in ice aggregation treatment can also significantly impact cloud properties, mainly through their impact on collisional breakup efficiency. Overall, enhancement in ice production through the addition of SIP mechanisms and the reduction in ice aggregation (in line with radar observations of shallow Arctic clouds) result in enhanced cloud cover and decreased TOA radiation biases, compared to satellite measurements, especially during the cold months. Significance Statement Arctic clouds remain a large source of uncertainty in projections of the future climate due to the poor representation of the microphysical processes that govern their life cycle. Ice formation is among the least understood processes. While it is widely recognized that better constraints on primary ice production (PIP) are needed to improve existing parameterizations, we show that secondary ice production (SIP) and ice aggregation can have also a significant impact on ice number concentrations. Constraining ice formation through the addition of missing SIP mechanisms and reducing ice aggregation can improve the representation of the cloud macrophysical properties and enhance total cloud cover in the Arctic region, which in turn contributes to decreased TOA radiation biases in the cold months.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thermal compensation of molded silicone optics

Optical grade silicone has various properties that make it attractive for solar concentrators, such as excellent transmission across the solar spectrum and flexible moldability for freeform profiles. In this study, a glass–silicone lens structure is proposed to reduce the optothermal effect on the silicone lens. Experimental measurements and simulation modeling results demonstrate that the focal length sensitivity of the glass–silicone lens with respect to temperature can be reduced by a factor of 10 when compared to a silicone lens alone. This model has been extended to the simulation of a proposed two-stage silicone solar concentrator, consisting of an array of acylindrical lenslets and rows of waveguides that focus light onto microphotovoltaic cells. The optical efficiency of the solar concentration system showed a change of less than 10% compared to the efficiency at room temperature for temperature changes from − <#comment/> 10 ∘ <#comment/> C to 70°C.

Lyons, Nicholas P.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Marine ice sheet experiments with the Community Ice Sheet Model

Ice sheet models differ in their numerical treatment of dynamical processes. Simulations of marine-based ice are sensitive to the choice of Stokes flow approximation and basal friction law and to the treatment of stresses and melt rates near the grounding line. We study the effects of these numerical choices on marine ice sheet dynamics in the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM). In the framework of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project 3d (MISMIP3d), we show that a depth-integrated, higher-order solver gives results similar to a 3D (Blatter–Pattyn) solver. We confirm that using a grounding line parameterization to approximate stresses in the grounding zone leads to accurate representation of ice sheet flow with a resolution of ~2 km, as opposed to ~0.5 km without the parameterization. In the MISMIP+ experimental framework, we compare different treatments of sub-shelf melting near the grounding line. In contrast to recent studies arguing that melting should not be applied in partly grounded cells, it is usually beneficial in CISM simulations to apply some melting in these cells. This suggests that the optimal treatment of melting near the grounding line can depend on ice sheet geometry, forcing, or model numerics. In both experimental frameworks, ice flow is sensitive to the choice of basal friction law. To study this sensitivity, we evaluate friction laws that vary the connectivity between the basal hydrological system and the ocean near the grounding line. CISM yields accurate results in steady-state and perturbation experiments at a resolution of ~2 km (arguably 4 km) when the connectivity is low or moderate and ~1 km (arguably 2 km) when the connectivity is strong.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing spin dressing sensitivity for the nEDMSF experiment

nEDMSF aims to measure the neutron electric dipole moment (d n ) with unprecedented precision. In this paper we explore the experiment's sensitivity when operating with an implementation of the critical dressing method in which the angle between the neutron and Helium-3 spins (ϕ 3n ) is subjected to a square modulation by an amount ϕ d (the “dressing angle”). Several parameters can be tuned to optimize sensitivity. We find roughly 10% improvement over a previous estimate, resulting primarily from the addition of a waiting period between the π/2 pulse that initiates d n -driven ϕ 3n growth and the start of ϕ3n modulation. We find negligible further improvement by allowing ϕ d to vary continuously over the course of a run, and no degradation resulting from the addition of an in situ background measurement into each ϕ3n modulation sequence. A complete simulation confirms a 300 live-day sensitivity ofσ = 1.45×10 -28 e ·cm. At this level of sensitivity, σ ϕ3n0 = 1 mrad precision on the initial n/ 3 He angle difference is not negligible.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Resolving Mesoscale Convective Systems: Grid Spacing Sensitivity in the Tropics and Midlatitudes

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a critical global water cycle component and drive extreme precipitation events in tropical and midlatitude regions. However, simulating deep convection remains challenging for modern numerical weather and climate models due to the complex interactions of processes from microscales to synoptic scales. Recent models with kilometer‐scale horizontal grid spacings offer notable improvements in simulating deep convection compared to coarser‐resolution models. Still, deficiencies in representing key physical processes, such as entrainment, lead to systematic biases. Additionally, evaluating model outputs using process‐oriented observational data remain difficult. This study presents an ensemble of MCS simulations with spanning the deep convective gray zone ( from 12 km to 125 m) in the Southern Great Plains of the U.S. and the Amazon Basin. Comparing these simulations with Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) wind profiler observations, we find greater sensitivity in the Amazon Basin compared to the Great Plains. Convective drafts converge structurally at sub‐kilometer scales, but some deficiencies remain. In both regions, simulated up and downdrafts are too deep and extreme downdrafts are not strong enough. Furthermore, Amazonian updrafts are too strong. Overall, we observe higher sensitivity in the tropics, including an artificial buildup in vertical kinetic energy at scales of , suggesting a need for 250 m in this region. Nevertheless, bulk convergence—agreement of storm‐average statistics—is achievable with kilometer‐scale simulations within a 10% error margin with 1 km providing a good balance between accuracy and computational cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Neutron Leakage Spectra Sensitivities for ICSBEP Benchmarks

Neutron leakage spectra have been measured, simulated, and investigated by many groups. These spectra have many uses, including determining shielding requirements and calculating dose for radiation protection purposes, validating nuclear data, and determining material composition. It has even been proposed to use measurements of neutron leakage spectra to determine the soil composition of Mars. As part of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in nuclear Data (EUCLID) Laboratory Directed Research Development (LDRD) project, the authors are working on developing methods to calculate sensitivities to neutron leakage spectra. This may allow nuclear data evaluators to better use neutron leakage spectra data to constrain or adjust nuclear data. This may also be particularly useful as many neutron leakage spectra measurements do not require fissile material and can be performed with well characterized neutron sources. Neutron leakage spectra measurements are usually performed by placing a detector at the outside of a nuclear system. This may be a reactor, a neutron generator, or a neutron source. Certain detection systems can use pulse height data to infer neutron energies, other detector systems rely on other ways of determining neutron energy (for example, a Bonner sphere with multiple moderator thicknesses can be used to measure neutron spectrum). These measurements typically rely on some unfolding of the measured results. For pulsed systems like the "Livermore Pulsed Spheres," time-of-flight information can also help to constrain the neutron energy spectra data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Meteorological Drivers for Errors in Modeled Winds along the Northern California Coast

Abstract An accurate wind resource dataset is required for assessing the potential energy yield of floating offshore wind farms that are expected along the California outer continental shelf. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has developed and disseminated an updated wind resource dataset offshore of California, using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, referred to as the CA20 dataset. As compared to buoy lidar measurements that have become available recently, the CA20 dataset showed significant positive biases for 100-m wind speeds along Northern California wind energy lease areas. To investigate the meteorological drivers for the model errors, we first consider two 1-yr simulations run with two different planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations: the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) PBL scheme (the chosen configuration in the CA20 dataset) and the Yonsei University PBL scheme (which significantly reduces the bias in modeled winds). By comparing the 1-yr simulations to the concurrent lidar buoy observations, we find that errors are larger with the MYNN PBL scheme in warm seasons. We then dive deeper into the analysis by running simulations for short-term (3-day) case studies to evaluate the sensitivity of initial/boundary condition forcings on model results. By analyzing the short-term simulations, we find that during synoptic-scale northerly flows driven by the North Pacific high and inland thermal low, a coastal warm bias in the MYNN simulation is mainly responsible for the modeled wind speed bias by altering the boundary layer thermodynamics. The results of our analysis will help guide the creation of an updated version of the CA20 dataset.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulating energy performance of buildings: a study using eQUEST and Energy Star ® portfolio manager

Commercial buildings consume significant energy in the United States and exhibit high potential for energy use reduction through retrofits. Benchmarking and energy simulation are well established tools in the industry to identify potential improvements and measure performance. Analysis to identify most sensitive retrofit parameters to energy performance can optimize investment and available energy savings. Presented study demonstrates methodology using a static model to determine sensitivity of building design and retrofit parameters with respect to energy performance. Calibrated simulation energy models (eQUEST) of two distribution centers (A, B) are presented. A fractional factorial analysis is conducted on retrofit parameters of efficiency measures targeting the highest energy consumers, and the results are benchmarked using Energy Star® Portfolio Manager. A custom Microsoft Excel® based simulation model is created to simulate occupancy levels, lighting, plug loads, and other equipment used in various spaces throughout the day. For Building A, efficient lighting was the most influential parameter for energy savings, carbon savings and benchmarking score; whereas, for Building B, HVAC efficiency was most influential for energy and demand controlled ventilation and economizers was most influential for benchmarking score. While retrofit projects can save energy and carbon emissions, variation in source-site ratios and state grid emissions, benchmarking scores may not always reflect equivalent improvement. State grid emissions factors, natural gas composition are difficult to model and hence not considered in this study. In conclusion, the synergistic analysis presented, emphasizes the importance of benchmarking and efficiency retrofits in promoting sustainable building practices to reduce energy consumption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Noble gas constraints on spent fuel irradiation histories

Fission gas isotopic compositions are sensitive to a variety of reactor operating parameters that include the neutron flux, neutron fluence at different neutron energies, and operating temperature. Measurements of fission gas isotopic compositions thus have potential to constrain reactor simulations for nuclear forensics and safeguards applications. In this paper, we present Kr and Xe isotope measurements from a suite of samples obtained from locations that span the axial length a fuel pin with a well-characterized irradiation history and compare these data to spatially resolved reactor simulations. Here, we observed positive correlations between fluence sensitive isotopic ratios and burnup and between a flux sensitive ratio and power, although some discrepancies are observed between the measured data and model predictions. These differences may be due to simplifications in the model and/or inaccuracies in the cross sections. A much broader measurement to model comparison is required to better understand the discrepancies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

How does uncertainty of soil organic carbon stock affect the calculation of carbon budgets and soil carbon credits for croplands in the U.S. Midwest?

Cropland carbon budget depicts the amount of carbon flowing in and out of agroecosystems and the changes in carbon stocks of soil and living biomass during the same period. Soil carbon credit is the additional change in soil carbon stock under certain farming practices compared with the business-as-usual practices. Accurately calculating cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit is critical to assessing climate change mitigation potential in agroecosystems. The calculation of cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit is sensitive to local soil and climatic conditions, especially initial soil organic carbon (SOC) stock, which is determined by both SOC concentration (SOC%) and bulk density (Bulk_Density). SOC stock data are either from soil sampling or gridded public survey data. In agroecosystem models, SOC stock data are a key model input for quantifying cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit. However, various types and degrees of uncertainties exist in SOC stock datasets, which propagate to the quantification of SOC stock change. In particular, a large discrepancy is found in two widely used SOC stock datasets — Rapid Carbon Assessment dataset (RaCA) and Gridded Soil Survey Geographic Database (gSSURGO) — in the U.S. Midwest, with a relative difference (quantified using Normalized Root Mean Square Error, NRMSE) of 48.0% for 0–30 cm SOC stock between the two datasets. It remains largely unclear how uncertainty in SOC stocks affects the calculation of cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit. To address this question, we used a well-validated process-based agroecosystem model, ecosys, to assess the impacts of SOC stock uncertainty on carbon budget and soil carbon credit calculation in the U.S. Midwestern corn-soybean rotation systems. Our results reveal the following findings: (1) A sizable discrepancy exists in simulated cropland carbon budget between using gSSURGO and using RaCA for their SOC% and Bulk_Density as model inputs, with a Pearson correlation coefficient (r) of only 0.4 for simulated change of SOC stock (ΔSOC) using these two different soil datasets. (2) Simulated cropland carbon budget components were more sensitive to initial SOC% than to Bulk_Density. For example, the upper and lower quartiles of multi-year averaged ΔSOC were –29.8 and 4.8 gC/m 2 /year for the selected counties respectively, with an uncertainty of 13.7 and 0.7 gC/m 2 /year induced by uncertainties in initial SOC% and Bulk_Density, respectively. (3) Both simulated ΔSOC and its uncertainty were negatively correlated with initial SOC%, whereas ΔSOC was negatively correlated with air temperature, and ΔSOC uncertainty was positively correlated with air temperature. (4) The uncertainty of calculated soil carbon credits was much smaller compared with the uncertainty of calculated absolute carbon budgets assuming the same SOC stock uncertainty level in the inputs. Specifically, in our assessment comparing planting cover crops vs no cover crop, the uncertainty of calculated soil carbon credits induced by initial SOC% uncertainty was less than 4% (relative to the quantified value of the soil carbon credits) for 90% of the cases. Our analysis highlights that high accuracy measurement of SOC% as inputs is needed for the calculation of cropland carbon budgets; however, soil carbon credit quantification is much less sensitive to the initial SOC% inputs, and the current publicly available soil datasets (e.g., gSSURGO) are largely suitable for the calculation of soil

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗