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At least 415 records · Page 23

Concepts to Support HRP Integration Using Publications and Modeling

Initial efforts are underway to enhance the Human Research Program (HRP)'s identification and support of potential cross-disciplinary scientific collaborations. To increase the emphasis on integration in HRP's science portfolio management, concepts are being explored through the development of a set of tools. These tools are intended to enable modeling, analysis, and visualization of the state of the human system in the spaceflight environment; HRP's current understanding of that state with an indication of uncertainties; and how that state changes due to HRP programmatic progress and design reference mission definitions. In this talk, we will discuss proof-of-concept work performed using a subset of publications captured in the HRP publications database. The publications were tagged in the database with words representing factors influencing health and performance in spaceflight, as well as with words representing the risks HRP research is reducing. Analysis was performed on the publication tag data to identify relationships between factors and between risks. Network representations were then created as one type of visualization of these relationships. This enables future analyses of the structure of the networks based on results from network theory. Such analyses can provide insights into HRP's current human system knowledge state as informed by the publication data. The network structure analyses can also elucidate potential improvements by identifying network connections to establish or strengthen for maximized information flow. The relationships identified in the publication data were subsequently used as inputs to a model captured in the Systems Modeling Language (SysML), which functions as a repository for relationship information to be gleaned from multiple sources. Example network visualization outputs from a simple SysML model were then also created to compare to the visualizations based on the publication data only. We will also discuss ideas for building upon this proof-of-concept work to further support an integrated approach to human spaceflight risk reduction.

Mindock, J.↗

Transition Flight Control Room Automation

The Workstation Prototype Laboratory is currently working on a number of projects which we feel can have a direct impact on ground operations automation. These projects include: The Fuel Cell Monitoring System (FCMS), which will monitor and detect problems with the fuel cells on the Shuttle. FCMS will use a combination of rules (forward/backward) and multi-threaded procedures which run concurrently with the rules, to implement the malfunction algorithms of the EGIL flight controllers. The combination of rule based reasoning and procedural reasoning allows us to more easily map the malfunction algorithms into a real-time system implementation. A graphical computation language (AGCOMPL). AGCOMPL is an experimental prototype to determine the benefits and drawbacks of using a graphical language to design computations (algorithms) to work on Shuttle or Space Station telemetry and trajectory data. The design of a system which will allow a model of an electrical system, including telemetry sensors, to be configured on the screen graphically using previously defined electrical icons. This electrical model would then be used to generate rules and procedures for detecting malfunctions in the electrical components of the model. A generic message management (GMM) system. GMM is being designed as a message management system for real-time applications which send advisory messages to a user. The primary purpose of GMM is to reduce the risk of overloading a user with information when multiple failures occurs and in assisting the developer in devising an explanation facility. The emphasis of our work is to develop practical tools and techniques, while determining the feasibility of a given approach, including identification of appropriate software tools to support research, application and tool building activities.

Welborn, Curtis Ray↗

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflights systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for design, failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 1: Methodology and applications

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for designs failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

Underestimation of Project Costs

Large projects almost always exceed their budgets. Estimating cost is difficult and estimated costs are usually too low. Three different reasons are suggested: bad luck, overoptimism, and deliberate underestimation. Project management can usually point to project difficulty and complexity, technical uncertainty, stakeholder conflicts, scope changes, unforeseen events, and other not really unpredictable bad luck. Project planning is usually over-optimistic, so the likelihood and impact of bad luck is systematically underestimated. Project plans reflect optimism and hope for success in a supposedly unique new effort rather than rational expectations based on historical data. Past project problems are claimed to be irrelevant because "This time it's different." Some bad luck is inevitable and reasonable optimism is understandable, but deliberate deception must be condemned. In a competitive environment, project planners and advocates often deliberately underestimate costs to help gain project approval and funding. Project benefits, cost savings, and probability of success are exaggerated and key risks ignored. Project advocates have incentives to distort information and conceal difficulties from project approvers. One naively suggested cure is more openness, honesty, and group adherence to shared overall goals. A more realistic alternative is threatening overrun projects with cancellation. Neither approach seems to solve the problem. A better method to avoid the delusions of over-optimism and the deceptions of biased advocacy is to base the project cost estimate on the actual costs of a large group of similar projects. Over optimism and deception can continue beyond the planning phase and into project execution. Hard milestones based on verified tests and demonstrations can provide a reality check.

Cost estimation↗

Evalution of a DE-Identification Process for Ocular Imaging

Medical privacy of NASA astronauts requires an organized and comprehensive approach when data are being made available outside NASA systems. A combination of factors, including the uniquely small patient population, the extensive medical testing done on these individuals, and the relative cultural popularity of the astronauts puts them at a far greater risk to potential exposure of personal information than the general public. Therefore, care must be taken to ensure that the astronauts' identities are concealed. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) medical data is a recent source of interest to researchers concerned with the development of Visual Impairment due to Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) in the astronaut population. Each vision MRI scan of an astronaut includes 176 separate sagittal images that are saved as an "image series" for clinical use. In addition to the medical information these image sets provide, they also inherently contain a substantial amount of non-medical personally identifiable information (PII) such as-name, date of birth, and date of exam. We have shown that an image set of this type can be rendered, using free software, to give an accurate representation of the patient's face. This currently restricts NASA from dispensing MRI data to researchers in a deidentified format. Automated software programs, such as the Brain Extraction Tool, are available to researchers who wish to de-identify MRI sagittal brain images by "erasing" identifying characteristics such as the nose and jaw on the image sets. However, this software is not useful to NASA for vision research because it removes the portion of the images around the eye orbits, which is the main area of interest to researchers studying the VIIP syndrome. The Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health program has resolved this issue by developing a protocol to de-identify MRI sagittal brain images using Showcase Premier, a DICOM (Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine) software package. The software allows manual editing of one image from a patient's image set to be automatically applied to the entire image series. This new approach would allow a new level of access to untapped medical imaging data relating to VIIP that can be utilized by researchers while protecting the privacy of the astronauts. In the next step toward finalizing this technique, NASA clinical radiology consultants will test the images to verify removal of all metadata and PII.

LaPelusa, Michael B.↗

Model-Driven Development of Safety Architectures

We describe the use of model-driven development for safety assurance of a pioneering NASA flight operation involving a fleet of small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) flying beyond visual line of sight. The central idea is to develop a safety architecture that provides the basis for risk assessment and visualization within a safety case, the formal justification of acceptable safety required by the aviation regulatory authority. A safety architecture is composed from a collection of bow tie diagrams (BTDs), a practical approach to manage safety risk by linking the identified hazards to the appropriate mitigation measures. The safety justification for a given unmanned aircraft system (UAS) operation can have many related BTDs. In practice, however, each BTD is independently developed, which poses challenges with respect to incremental development, maintaining consistency across different safety artifacts when changes occur, and in extracting and presenting stakeholder specific information relevant for decision making. We show how a safety architecture reconciles the various BTDs of a system, and, collectively, provide an overarching picture of system safety, by considering them as views of a unified model. We also show how it enables model-driven development of BTDs, replete with validations, transformations, and a range of views. Our approach, which we have implemented in our toolset, AdvoCATE, is illustrated with a running example drawn from a real UAS safety case. The models and some of the innovations described here were instrumental in successfully obtaining regulatory flight approval.

Safety case↗

Benchmark Dose Analysis of DNA Damage Biomarker Responses Provides Compound Potency and Adverse Outcome Pathway Information for the Topoisomerase II Inhibitor Class of Compounds

Genetic toxicology data have traditionally been utilized for hazard identification to provide a binary call for a compound's risk. Recent advances in the scientific field, especially with the development of high‐throughput methods to quantify DNA damage, have influenced a change of approach in genotoxicity assessment. The in vitro MultiFlow® DNA Damage Assay is one such method which multiplexes γH2AX, p53, phospho‐histone H3 biomarkers into a single‐flow cytometric analysis (Bryce et al., [2016]: Environ Mol Mutagen 57:546–558). This assay was used to study human TK6 cells exposed to each of eight topoisomerase II poisons for 4 and 24 hr. Using PROAST v65.5, the Benchmark Dose approach was applied to the resulting flow cytometric datasets. With “compound” serving as covariate, all eight compounds were combined into a single analysis, per time point and endpoint. The resulting 90% confidence intervals, plotted in Log scale, were considered as the potency rank for the eight compounds. The in vitro MultiFlow data showed a maximum confidence interval span of 1Log, which indicates data of good quality. Patterns observed in the compound potency rank were scrutinized by using the expert rule‐based software program Derek Nexus, developed by Lhasa Limited. Compound sub‐classification and structural alerts were considered contributory to the potencies observed for the topoisomerase II poisons studied herein. The Topo II poison Adverse Outcome Pathway was evaluated with MultiFlow endpoints serving as Key Events. The step‐wise approach described herein can be considered as a foundation for risk assessment of compounds within a specific mode of action of interest. Environ. Mol. Mutagen. 2020. © 2020 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Wheeldon, Ryan P.↗

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of a Light-Water Reactor Coupled with a High-Temperature Electrolysis Hydrogen Production Plant

This report details an expansion of the original two generic probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) for the addition of a heat extraction system (HES) to a light-water reactor, one for a pressurized-water reactor and one for a boiling-water reactor. The new material in this revision includes a new HES design, direct electrical coupling of the nuclear power plant to the High-Temperature Electrolysis Facility (HTEF), and a smaller 100-MWt HTEF analysis. The results investigate the applicability of the potential licensing approaches, which do not require a full United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission licensing review. The PRAs are generic and include some assumptions. We eliminated many conservative assumptions from the preliminary pressurized-water reactor PRA report using design data for both the HES and HTEF. The PRA results indicate that the 10 CFR 50.59 licensing approach is justified due to the minimal increase in initiating event frequencies for all design basis accidents, with none exceeding 5.6%. The PRA results for core damage frequency and large early release frequency support the use of RG 1.174 as further risk information that supports a change without a full licensing amendment review. Further insights provided through hazard analyses and sensitivity studies confirm with high confidence that the safety case for licensing an HES addition and an HTEF sited 1.0 km from the nuclear power plant is strong and that the placement of a HTEF at 0.5 km is also a viable case. Site-specific information can alter these conclusions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Risk Interfaces to Support Integrated Systems Analysis and Development

Objectives for systems analysis capability: Develop integrated understanding of how a complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. Why? Support development of integrated solutions that prevent unwanted outcomes (Implementable approaches to minimize mission resources(mass, power, crew time, etc.)); Support development of tools for autonomy (need for exploration) (Assess and maintain resilience -individuals, teams, integrated system). Output of this exercise: -Representation of interfaces based on Human System Risk Board (HSRB) Risk Summary information and simple status based on Human Research Roadmap; Consolidated HSRB information applied to support communication; Point-of-Departure for HRP Element planning; Ability to track and communicate status of collaborations. 4

Mindock, Jennifer↗

A Fuzzy Logic Approach for Separation Assurance and Collision Avoidance for Unmanned Aerial Systems

In the coming years, operations in low altitude airspace will vastly increase as the capabilities and applications of small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS) continue to multiply. Therefore, solutions to managing sUAS in highly congested airspace must be explored. In this study, a Fuzzy Logic based approach was used to help mitigate the risk of collisions between aircraft using separation assurance and collision avoidance techniques. The system was evaluated for its effectiveness to mitigate the risk of mid-air collisions between aircraft. This system utilizes only current state information and can resolve potential conflicts without knowledge of intruder intent. The avoidance logic was verified using formal methods and shown to select the correct action in all instances. Additionally, the Fuzzy Logic Controllers were shown to always turn the vehicles in the correct direction. Numerical testing demonstrated that the avoidance system was able to prevent a mid-air collision between two sUAS in all tested cases. Simulations were also performed in a three-dimensional environment with a heterogenous fleet of sUAS performing a variety of realistic missions. Simulations showed that the system was 99.98 effective at preventing mid-air collisions when separation assurance was disabled (unmitigated case) and 100 effective when enabled (mitigated case).

Verification & Validation of a Fuzzy Logic Control↗

SCREAM: Space-based Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method

Given both ground-based performance shaping factors (PSFs) collected by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and potential space-based PSFs collected by JSC's HH&P, this year's task is to determine how to combine them for future human reliability analysis (HRA) of space missions. All HRA to date for space missions have been based on ground data (i.e. 1-G environment). There is no space-based HRA approach. The target of this project to produce a "first of its kind" HRA approach for space missions. As humans go beyond Earth orbit and missions become longer, human performance and reliability is expected to degrade. The questions become by how much, when, and what, leading to defining the overall effect on crew risk. Knowing this information earlier rather than later will help us mitigate this risk by vehicle design, crew training, and operational workarounds.

Boyer, Roger L.↗

Choosing the Best Modeling Platform for Radiological Risk Assessment Models - 20468

Radiological risk assessments, in the form of performance or safety assessments, are often required under regulations or guidance for remediation of contaminated land, decommissioning of contaminated buildings or structures, and radioactive waste disposal. These risk assessments are usually supported by fate and transport models that address decay and ingrowth of radionuclides, as well as their movement through engineered systems and the natural environment. These models are often projected thousands, or more, years into the future, largely because the radioactive species change through decay and ingrowth, and hence the magnitude of the radioactive effect changes with time. There are many computer codes that are available to address this type of modeling. They range from addressing specific pathways or processes such as infiltration of water, groundwater, surface water, air, biota, diffusion and advection of water and gases, to those that try to couple all processes together to evaluate the impact of fate and transport through the entire system to places in space and time to which access is assumed. These different types of codes are sometimes separated with the monikers process-level and systems-level codes, although it is often not clear that this separation does justice to the capabilities of the many codes that are available to evaluate fate and transport of radionuclides. The focus of this paper is the latter group of modeling codes. Several systems level modeling codes exist and are used. There are differences between these codes in terms of utility, flexibility, complexity and cost. The purpose of this paper is to compare a few of these codes in the context of work currently being performed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Modeling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments (MODARIA) II Working Group 1 (WG1). The MODARIA II WG1's main focus is how stakeholder engaged decision analysis can, or should, be applied to radiological contamination problems so that better, longstanding, sustainable, solutions are reached. However, the WG1 also recognizes the potential impact of the modeling tools that are chosen to address radiological risk, which is often a primary objective of decision making for radiological problems. Other objectives might also be important, such as constraining costs, obtaining financing, minimizing impact on ecosystems, saving cultural resources, saving jobs, farmland, environmental justice, etc., in a full decision analysis for a given radiological contamination problem, but none of these other objectives have the same types of complex modeling needs as minimize radiological dose. Consequently, a further focus of WG1 is to evaluate the potential impacts on decision making of the choice of fate and transport, and risk assessment, modeling codes that are used to support decision making. The WG1 will produce a report at the end of 2020 that will focus on an approach to effective decision making and stakeholder engagement. The report will also consider the role that performance assessment modeling should play in the decision-making process, including the impact of the choice of modeling tools or computer codes on risk-informed decision making. Several sites around the World have been made available by Member States for these model comparisons, and several modeling tools have been considered. However, the focus of this paper is on two of the sites, one in Belgium and one in Ukraine, and on three of the tools: NORMALYSA (NORM And Legacy Site Assessment); GoldSim{sup C}, and AMBER{sup C}. The final report from this working group will also cover other modeling tools, including RESRAD, and PC-Cream{sup R}. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

IEEE PES GM Poster - Cyber-Informed Engineering Approach to Mitigating BESS Supply Chain Concerns

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are increasingly important to meet the needs of grid resilience and reliability. BESS provide critical grid services, maintaining stability of the grid with increased variable conditions. However, there are significant geopolitical and security concerns regarding their operation in critical infrastructure, due to lack of a domestic supply chain and prevalence of foreign entity of concern (FEOC) components in BESS and associated inverter-based resources. The supply chain challenge is dually exacerbated by a lack of alternative suppliers who can meet the economic targets for energy delivery and a potentially adversarial supply chain. Solutions are needed to secure components, addressing mixed layers of risk and engineering controls. This paper presents a specific application of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles for BESS and recommends an alternative strategy to blocking the supply chain, ensuring that grid modernization targets can be met despite lack of a validated or secure supply chain. This study focuses on the United State (U.S.) use case, but the process can be applied globally to address supply chain security challenges. CIE practices represent the next step in functional assurance and risk mitigation, ensuring optimal resource allocation and enhancing security measures to safeguard the future of energy in the U.S. and beyond.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗

Airspace Safety Threshold Study: Status Update to SC-228 DAA Safety Sub-Group

Realization of the expected proliferation of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operations in the National Airspace System (NAS) depends on the development and validation of performance standards for UAS Detect and Avoid (DAA) Systems. The RTCA Special Committee 228 is charged with leading the development of draft Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for UAS DAA Systems. NASA, as a participating member of RTCA SC-228, is committed to supporting the development and validation of draft requirements as well as the safety substantiation and end-to-end assessment of DAA system performance. A recent study conducted using NASA's ACES (Airspace Concept Evaluation System) simulation capability begins to address questions surrounding the development of draft MOPS for DAA systems. ACES analyses were conducted to determine: 1) the rate at which IFR aircraft encounter other IFR and VFR aircraft, and 2) the rate at which UAS aircraft encounter VFR aircraft. Five different separation thresholds were used (two for encounter and one each for well-clear, near mid-air collision, and closest point of approach). The results will be used by SC228 to inform decisions about the safety aspect of UAS DAA systems and future requirements development and validation efforts.

Risk ratio↗

A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet

We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would drive drastic and potentially fast sea level rise with important implications for coastal flood risks. Previous studies have combined information from ice sheet models and observations to calibrate model parameters. These studies have broken important new ground but have either adopted simple ice sheet models or have limited the number of parameters to allow for the use of more complex models. These limitations are largely due to the computational challenges posed by calibration as models become more computationally intensive or when the number of parameters increases. Here, we propose a method to alleviate this problem: a fast sequential Monte Carlo method that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high-performance computing systems. We use simulated examples to demonstrate how our sample-based approach provides accurate approximations to the posterior distributions of the calibrated parameters. The drastic reduction in computational times enables us to provide new insights into important scientific questions, for example, the impact of Pliocene era data and prior parameter information on sea level projections. These studies would be computationally prohibitive with other computational approaches for calibration such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or emulation-based methods. We also find considerable differences in the distributions of sea level projections when we account for a larger number of uncertain parameters. For example, based on the same ice sheet model and data set, the 99th percentile of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in 2300 increases from 6.5 m to 13.1 m when we increase the number of calibrated parameters from three to 11. With previous calibration methods, it would be challenging to go beyond five parameters. Here, this work provides an important next step toward improving the uncertainty quantification of complex, computationally intensive and decision-relevant models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Space Radiation and Exploration - Information for the Augustine Committee Review

Space radiation presents significant health risks including mortality for Exploration missions: a) Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions are distinct from radiation that occurs on Earth leading to different biological impacts. b) Large uncertainties in GCR risk projections impact ability to design and assess mitigation approaches and select crew. c) Solar Proton Events (SPEs) require new operational and shielding approaches and new biological data on risks. Risk estimates are changing as new scientific knowledge is gained: a) Research on biological effects of space radiation show qualitative and quantitative differences with X- or gamma-rays. b) Expert recommendations and regulatory policy are changing. c) New knowledge leads to changes in estimates for the number of days in space to stay below Permissible Exposure Limits (PELS).

Cucinotta, Francis↗

New Modeling Approaches to Investigate Cell Signaling in Radiation Response

Ionizing radiation damages individual cells and tissues leading to harmful biological effects. Among many radiation-induced lesions, DNA double-strand breaks (DSB) are considered the key precursors of most early and late effects [1] leading to direct mutation or aberrant signal transduction processes. In response to damage, a flow of information is communicated to cells not directly hit by the radiation through signal transduction pathways [2]. Non-targeted effects (NTE), which includes bystander effects and genomic instability in the progeny of irradiated cells and tissues, may be particularly important for space radiation risk assessment [1], because astronauts are exposed to a low fluence of heavy ions and only a small fraction of cells are traversed by an ion. NTE may also have important consequences clinical radiotherapy [3]. In the recent years, new simulation tools and modeling approaches have become available to study the tissue response to radiation. The simulation of signal transduction pathways require many elements such as detailed track structure calculations, a tissue or cell culture model, knowledge of biochemical pathways and Brownian Dynamics (BD) propagators of the signaling molecules in their micro-environment. Recently, the Monte-Carlo simulation code of radiation track structure RITRACKS was used for micro and nano-dosimetry calculations [4]. RITRACKS will be used to calculate the fraction of cells traversed by an ion and delta-rays and the energy deposited in cells in a tissue model. RITRACKS also simulates the formation of chemical species by the radiolysis of water [5], notably the .OH radical. This molecule is implicated in DNA damage and in the activation of the transforming growth factor beta (TGF), a signaling molecule involved in NTE. BD algorithms for a particle near a membrane comprising receptors were also developed and will be used to simulate trajectories of signaling molecules in the micro-environment and characterize autocrine and paracrine cell communication and signal transduction.

Plante, Ianik↗