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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

StarDICE III: characterization of the photometric instrument with a collimated beam projector

The measurement of Type Ia supernovae magnitudes provides cosmological distances, which constrain dark energy parameters. Current and upcoming large photometric surveys require improved photometric calibration precision to reduce systematic uncertainties in cosmological constraints. The StarDICE experiment aims to establish accurate broad-band flux references for these surveys, targeting sub-percent precision in magnitude measurements. Achieving this requires precise filter bandpass measurements for both StarDICE and survey instruments with sub-nanometre accuracy. To this end, we developed the Collimated Beam Projector (CBP), an optical device for calibrating the throughput of astronomical telescopes and their filters. The CBP uses a tunable laser source and a reversed telescope to emit a parallel monochromatic light beam, continuously monitored in flux and wavelength. The CBP output flux is measured with a large-area photodiode calibrated relative to a NIST photodiode. Using CBP measurements, we derive the StarDICE telescope throughput and filter transmissions, anchoring them to NIST’s absolute calibration. After analysing systematic uncertainties, we achieved sub-nanometre accuracy for filter central wavelengths, measured filter transmission with ~0.5 per cent precision per 1 nm bin, and detected out-of-band leakages at a relative level of 10 –4 ⁠. Furthermore, we synthesized equivalent transmission for full pupil illumination from four sampled positions in the StarDICE telescope mirror, with ~0.2 nm accuracy for central wavelengths and 7 mmag for broad-band fluxes. This demonstrates our ability to characterize telescope throughput down to the millimagnitude, paving the way for future developments, such as the Rubin-CBP for measuring the LSST at Vera Rubin Observatory, and a portable CBP version for in-situ transmission monitoring.

Calibration↗
DOE OSTI2023

Time‐Lapse Image Classification Using a Diffractive Neural Network

Diffractive deep neural networks (D 2 NNs), comprised of spatially engineered passive surfaces, collectively process optical input information at the speed of light propagation through a thin diffractive volume, without any external computing power. Diffractive networks were demonstrated to achieve all‐optical object classification and perform universal linear transformations. Herein, a “time‐lapse” image classification scheme using a diffractive network is demonstrated for the first time, significantly advancing its classification accuracy and generalization performance on complex input objects by using the lateral movements of the input objects and/or the diffractive network, relative to each other. In a different context, such relative movements of the objects and/or the camera are routinely being used for image super‐resolution applications; inspired by their success, a time‐lapse diffractive network is designed to benefit from the complementary information content created by controlled or random lateral shifts. The design space and performance limits of time‐lapse diffractive networks are numerically explored, revealing a blind testing accuracy of 62.03% on the optical classification of objects from the CIFAR‐10 dataset. This constitutes the highest inference accuracy achieved so far using a single diffractive network on the CIFAR‐10 dataset. Time‐lapse diffractive networks will be broadly useful for the spatiotemporal analysis of input signals using all‐optical processors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A subdivision-stabilized B-spline mixed material point method

Subjected to external loadings, polymeric materials, e.g., biological tissues, hydrogels, and elastomers, may undergo extreme, nearly incompressible, (self-)contact deformations. For numerical modeling employing mesh-based techniques such as the finite element method (FEM), these deformations pose significant challenges due to large distortions in the deformed geometry, accuracy issues stemming from volumetric locking effects, and increased computational cost from complex contact searches. As an alternative to mesh-based methods, the material point method (MPM), a continuum-based particle technique, is gaining attention for its ability to handle extreme distortions and capture no-slip contact without added cost. For nearly incompressible material behaviors, while mixed formulations can address locking effects by treating displacements and pressure as independent fields, they can suffer from numerical instabilities close to the incompressibility limit due to the violation of the inf-sup condition, leading to inaccurate nodal pressure solutions. Here we propose an efficient and stable mixed B-spline material point method with highest achievable regularity for quasi-compressible polymeric materials. Using the two-scale relation of B-splines, we introduce a subdivision-stabilization for the two-field mixed MPM and obtain numerically stable, oscillation-free nodal solutions with equal-order interpolations with optimal regularity. Building on the Eulerian-Lagrangian nature of MPM, a previously-converged solution framework is adopted to mitigate issues related to cell-crossing and numerical fracture artifact present in standard MPM. We assess the stability and accuracy of the developed mixed MPM at large deformations for soft materials through the benchmark Cook’s membrane problem. Additionally, we test the robustness of the proposed MPM by modeling several examples, including the compression and indentation of a circular block into a quasi-compressible substrate and the twisting deformation of a rectangular block. The findings demonstrate the MPM’s capabilities for modeling practical soft material applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Faraday detector uranium isotope ratio measurement: Insights from solution- and laser ablation-based sampling methodologies on the Neoma MC-ICP-MS

In this study we utilize an all-faraday cup detector configuration on the Neoma MC-ICP-MS to perform uranium isotope ratio determinations from certified reference materials and a nuclear fuel precursor material via solution and laser ablation based sampling methodologies. The goal in performing these measurements is primarily to demonstrate that the all-faraday cup method can produce highly precise and accurate isotope ratios even at relatively low signal intensity levels while also developing a preliminary understanding of how the complex interplay between different amplifier resistor levels (e.g. 10 11 vs 10 13 Ω) and integration times impacts the precision and accuracy of different types of measurements. Our results show that the faraday cups with 1013 Ω resistors in their amplifier feedback loops can be used to produce accurate and relatively precise isotope ratios for ion beams down to ~5 K cps. However, at the lower end of the signal intensities observed in this study, longer integration times are necessary to mitigate the impact of ion beam instability that can occur during laser ablation based sampling. Despite this potential limitation, the all-faraday cup method is highly versatile as exemplified by the analysis of a collection of uranium reference materials with highly variable uranium isotopic compositions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Empirical validation of building energy simulation model input parameter for multizone commercial building during the cooling season

This paper presents a critical advancement in Building Energy Modeling (BEM) through an empirical validation approach using a high-quality dataset from a multizone commercial office building in Oak Ridge, TN, USA. BEM is widely utilized in diverse construction applications, but its effectiveness relies on the accuracy of its predictions. The study focuses on empirical validation of input parameters in BEM, including building envelope data, infiltration modeling, and rooftop unit system performance curves. The validation of simulation input parameters leads to substantial improvements in the accuracy of simulation results. Notable both NMBE and cv (RMSE) values are reduced by 0.5 % for indoor air temperature and 17 % for indoor air relative humidity compared to the previous model. At the system level, both NMBE and cv (RMSE) values are reduced by 2 % for fan energy consumption and 4 % for cooling energy consumption, compared to the previous model. A literature review highlights a significant gap in empirical validation studies, which predominantly concentrate on either component-level or whole building validation. Furthermore, many studies employ simplified setups that may not faithfully represent the complexities of multizone commercial buildings. This paper distinguishes itself by emphasizing the critical importance of component-level input parameter validation. It underlines the need to validate data related to building envelope components and HVAC system performance curves, resulting in more accurate simulation outcomes. In conclusion, the utilization of actual multizone commercial building data enhances the study's practical relevance. In summary, this research underscores the pivotal role of input parameter validation in enhancing the accuracy and reliability of BEM.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

MS25: Materials Science-Focused Benchmark Data Set for Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

Here, we present MS25, a benchmark data set for evaluating machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) across diverse materials-relevant systems including MgO surfaces, liquid water, zeolites, a catalytic Pt surface reaction, high-entropy alloys (HEAs), and disordered Zr-oxides. Five MLIP architectures (MACE, NequIP, Allegro, MTP, and Torch-ANI) are trained and tested, focusing not only on traditional metrics (energies, forces, and stresses) but also explicitly validating derived physical observables such as lattice constants, volumes, and reaction barriers. We find that most models reach comparable accuracy on standard error metrics across the simple systems, although equivariant MLIPs offer 1.5–2× improvements over nonequivariant MLIPs in energy and force error for structurally complex or compositionally disordered environments such as HEAs and Zr–O systems. Our analysis highlights that low errors in energy and force predictions do not guarantee reliable observables, emphasizing the necessity of explicit validation. We demonstrate limitations in cross-framework transferability, as models trained on one zeolite framework (CHA) fail to reliably generalize to predictions of structurally distinct frameworks (e.g., MFI). Size-extensive tests show some dependence on system size for MgO, resulting from forced periodicity. The HEA and Zr–O data sets are identified as challenging tests for future benchmarks and MLIP model architecture developments as they show significant differentiation in error between MLIP architectures and are still relatively difficult at 1000 training images. Moving forward, we recommend that benchmarking efforts shift their focus from marginal accuracy improvements in energy and force errors toward identifying and understanding model failure modes, rigorously assessing transferability, and evaluating how their errors affect observable predictions. For researchers looking to choose an MLIP architecture, we suggest selecting equivariant MLIP architectures if the complexity of the system is a challenge. For simple materials problems, auxiliary features such as integration with molecular dynamics engines, trade-offs between computational data set generation cost vs MLIP inference speed, and framework integration may play a more important decision factor than small differences in error metrics that are unlikely to matter for production-level research.

chemical structure↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of deep neural networks to improve diagnostic accuracy of rheumatoid arthritis using diffuse optical tomography

A set of deep neural network models for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) classification using a highway network, a convolutional neural network and a residual network is proposed based on the data of diffuse optical tomography (DOT) utilising near-infrared light, which ensures early diagnosis of pathophysiological changes resulting from inflammation. A numerical model of the finger is used to generate images to overcome the inherent problem of insufficient clinical DOT images available. The proposed deep neural network models are applied to automatically classify simulated DOT images of inflamed and non-inflamed joints and transfer learning is also used to improve the performance of the classification. The results demonstrate that all three deep neural network methods improve the diagnostic accuracy as compared to the widely applied support vector machine (SVM), especially for high inter-subject variability databases. In cases of distinct modelled severity of disease, residual network achieved the highest accuracy (> 99 %), and both of highway and convolutional neural networks reached 99 %, respectively. However, as the severity of the modelled disease is reduced, this accuracy is reduced to 75.2 % for residual networks. The results indicate that transfer learning can improve the performance of deep neural network methods on RA classification from DOT data and highlight their potential as a computer aided tool in DOT diagnostic systems. (paper)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Robust foil regenerator flow loss and heat transfer tests under oscillating flow condition

A regenerator works as an energy storage component in a Stirling engine. Thus, it is one of the most critical components that makes the Stirling engine highly efficient. Traditionally, the regenerators are made of wire media such as woven screens and random fibers. These wire regenerators experience considerably high flow losses through the regenerator due to the flow separation and the resulting vortices. The high flow losses associated with the flow separation and vortices result in a lower engine efficiency. This research is to test a new robust foil regenerator to investigate its feasibility for free-piston Stirling engine applications. The robust foil regenerator is configured with parallel flow channels and stiffening ribs. Comparing to complex flows patterns in woven screen and random fiber regenerators, the flows in the parallel plates are simple and the flow losses are considerably small, and the heat transfer coefficient is also relatively small. To test the regenerator experimentally, a regenerator test rig was manufactured. To verify the accuracy of the test rig, a woven screen regenerator was made and tested prior to the robust foil regenerator test. The friction factor correlation of the woven screen regenerator shows a good agreement with the published regenerator correlations. The robust foil regenerator tests were conducted under the oscillating flow condition with different Reynolds numbers. The flow losses were measured with dynamic pressure transducers and the friction coefficient was derived from measured pressure drop. The measured temperature difference over the regenerator was used to calculate the heat transfer coefficient and Nusselt number. The figure of merit with two methods of NPH/NTU ratio and j/f ratio was calculated to evaluate the suitability of the robust foil regenerator. The results show that the robust foil regenerator has considerably higher figure of merit and therefore, better performance than other types of regenerator.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating soybean yields from high-temporal-resolution multi-source data using deep learning

Accurate and timely crop yield prediction is crucial for ensuring food security and maintaining stable agricultural markets. In recent years, there has been a surge in interest in leveraging high-temporal-resolution, multi-source data for effective crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. A notable challenge arises from the difficulty in capturing the intricate interactions between variables across different time steps within these high-temporal-resolution time series datasets. This complexity hinders the reliable extraction of yield information from voluminous and often noisy datasets, especially during periods of extreme weather events. Here, in this study, we propose an Attention and Graph Isomorphism Network-enhanced Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory network (AGB-LSTM) for estimating county-level soybean yield in the United States. This model integrates a diverse set of remote sensing data, including Near-Infrared Reflectance of Vegetation (NIRv), Sun-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), along with environmental covariates. The AGB-LSTM effectively leverages information related to crop yield from high-temporal-resolution time series data (5-days), achieving an accuracy of R²= 0.67 and rRMSE = 14.46%. This approach significantly outperforms traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest (RF) (R²= 0.52, rRMSE = 17.36%) and Bi-LSTM (R²= 0.58, rRMSE = 16.17%). Sensitivity experiments with different time steps and ranges demonstrated that our model could accurately and stably predict yields 1 to 2 months before harvest. Moreover, data with a finer temporal resolution consistently improved prediction performance, resulting in an approximately 20% increase in and an approximately 20% decrease in rRMSE compared to using monthly composites. We also evaluated the robustness of the model under extreme climate events and observed strong performance (R²= 0.50, rRMSE = 21.32%). Finally, yield mapping for major soybean-producing regions in North America in 2023 revealed spatial patterns that closely matched USDA yield reports. Our findings suggest that the AGB-LSTM model is a promising and effective method for estimating yield and has notable potential for global crop yield forecasting.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2020

ECOSTRESS: NASA's Next Generation Mission to Measure Evapotranspiration From the International Space Station

Abstract The ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) was launched to the International Space Station on 29 June 2018 by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The primary science focus of ECOSTRESS is centered on evapotranspiration (ET), which is produced as Level‐3 (L3) latent heat flux ( LE ) data products. These data are generated from the Level‐2 land surface temperature and emissivity product (L2_LSTE), in conjunction with ancillary surface and atmospheric data. Here, we provide the first validation (Stage 1, preliminary) of the global ECOSTRESS clear‐sky ET product (L3_ET_PT‐JPL, Version 6.0) against LE measurements at 82 eddy covariance sites around the world. Overall, the ECOSTRESS ET product performs well against the site measurements (clear‐sky instantaneous/time of overpass: r 2 = 0.88; overall bias = 8%; normalized root‐mean‐square error, RMSE = 6%). ET uncertainty was generally consistent across climate zones, biome types, and times of day (ECOSTRESS samples the diurnal cycle), though temperate sites are overrepresented. The 70‐m‐high spatial resolution of ECOSTRESS improved correlations by 85%, and RMSE by 62%, relative to 1‐km pixels. This paper serves as a reference for the ECOSTRESS L3 ET accuracy and Stage 1 validation status for subsequent science that follows using these data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Impact of Radiative Transfer at Reduced Spectral Resolution in Large‐Eddy Simulations of Convective Clouds

Abstract Many radiative transfer schemes approximate the spectral integration over ∼10 5 to ∼10 6 wavelengths with correlated k ‐distributions methods that typically require only 10 1 –10 2 spectral integration points ( g ‐points). The exact number of g ‐points is then chosen as an optimal balance between computational costs and accuracy, normally assessed in terms of a number of radiative quantities. How this radiative accuracy propagates to simulation accuracy, however, is not straightforward. In this study, we therefore explore the sensitivity of cloud properties in large‐eddy simulations (LES) to the accuracy of radiative fluxes and heating rates. We first generate smaller sets of g ‐points from existing k ‐distributions by repeatedly combining adjacent g ‐points while maintaining the highest possible accuracy on a chosen set of radiative metrics. Next, we perform three sets of LES with varying cloud—radiation coupling pathways, and therefore different requirements for the accuracy of the radiative transfer computations, to investigate how these smaller and thus less accurate k ‐distributions affect simulation characteristics. The decrease in radiative accuracy with 3–4 times smaller k ‐distributions results in biases in cloud properties that are relative small compared to their temporal fluctuations. These results show potential for speeding up radiative transfer computations in cloud‐resolving models by reducing the resolved spectral detail. However, more statistically converged simulations and a wider set of case studies is required to fully assess the robustness of our results.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

An accurate, non-empirical method for incorporating decoherence into Ehrenfest dynamics

In mixed quantum-classical nonadiabatic molecular dynamics methods, the anchoring of the electronic wave function to a single nuclear geometry results in both quantitative and qualitative errors in the dynamics. In the context of both Ehrenfest and trajectory surface hopping methods, methods for incorporating decoherence are widely used to eliminate these errors. However, the accuracy of these methods often depends strongly on the parameterization of the decoherence time and/or other related quantities. Here, we present a refinement of the recently introduced collapse to a block (TAB) scheme for incorporating decoherence into Ehrenfest dynamics. The proposed approach incorporates an approximation to the history of the population dynamics and treats the coherence decay as Gaussian, rather than exponential. This method uses parameters that can be obtained from first principles, rather than empirical fitting. Application to one-dimensional models indicates excellent agreement with numerically exact simulations. We also introduce a second refinement to the TAB method: a robust linear least-squares algorithm for determining collapse probabilities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-task graph neural networks for simultaneous prediction of global and atomic properties in ferromagnetic systems *

Abstract We introduce a multi-tasking graph convolutional neural network, HydraGNN, to simultaneously predict both global and atomic physical properties and demonstrate with ferromagnetic materials. We train HydraGNN on an open-source ab initio density functional theory (DFT) dataset for iron-platinum with a fixed body centered tetragonal lattice structure and fixed volume to simultaneously predict the mixing enthalpy (a global feature of the system), the atomic charge transfer, and the atomic magnetic moment across configurations that span the entire compositional range. By taking advantage of underlying physical correlations between material properties, multi-task learning (MTL) with HydraGNN provides effective training even with modest amounts of data. Moreover, this is achieved with just one architecture instead of three, as required by single-task learning (STL). The first convolutional layers of the HydraGNN architecture are shared by all learning tasks and extract features common to all material properties. The following layers discriminate the features of the different properties, the results of which are fed to the separate heads of the final layer to produce predictions. Numerical results show that HydraGNN effectively captures the relation between the configurational entropy and the material properties over the entire compositional range. Overall, the accuracy of simultaneous MTL predictions is comparable to the accuracy of the STL predictions. In addition, the computational cost of training HydraGNN for MTL is much lower than the original DFT calculations and also lower than training separate STL models for each property.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automated Vehicle Detection in a Nuclear Facility Using Low-Frequency Acoustic Sensors

This article presents an analysis of the method of construction and results for a classifier intended to identify vehicles using low-frequency acoustic data collected by a dis-tributed sensor network. This data is collected as part of a venture intended to explore data analytics and multisensor fusion techniques for the monitoring of activities at a test bed nuclear facility located at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. We describe the associated target signature and design a classifier based on a multilayer perceptron, followed by an analysis of its results. We discuss how overall accuracy is not the only consideration in constructing this classifier, and how for this application, it is actually desirable to operate at a lower level of accuracy in exchange for a reduction in the false alarm rate, as well as how this relates to the actual deployment of the classifier in practical use.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preconditioned least‐squares Petrov–Galerkin reduced order models

Abstract In this article, we introduce a methodology for improving the accuracy and efficiency of reduced order models (ROMs) constructed using the least‐squares Petrov–Galerkin (LSPG) projection method through the introduction of preconditioning. Unlike prior related work, which focuses on preconditioning the linear systems arising within the ROM numerical solution procedure to improve linear solver performance, our approach leverages a preconditioning matrix directly within the minimization problem underlying the LSPG formulation. Applying preconditioning in this way has the potential to improve ROM accuracy for several reasons. First, preconditioning the LSPG formulation changes the norm defining the residual minimization, which can improve the residual‐based stability constant bounding the ROM solution's error. The incorporation of a preconditioner into the LSPG formulation can have the additional effect of scaling the components of the residual being minimized to make them roughly of the same magnitude, which can be beneficial when applying the LSPG method to problems with disparate scales (e.g., dimensional equations, multi‐physics problems). Importantly, we demonstrate that an “ideal preconditioned” LSPG ROM (a ROM in which the preconditioner is the inverse of the Jacobian of its corresponding full order model) emulates projection of the full order model solution increment onto the reduced basis. This quantity defines a lower bound on the error of a ROM solution for a given reduced basis. By designing preconditioners that approximate the Jacobian inverse—as is common in designing preconditioners for solving linear systems—it is possible to obtain a ROM whose error approaches this lower bound. The proposed approach is evaluated on several mechanical and thermo‐mechanical problems implemented within the Albany HPC code and run in the predictive regime, with prediction across material parameter space. We demonstrate numerically that the introduction of simple Jacobi, Gauss‐Seidel, and ILU preconditioners into the proper orthogonal decomposition/LSPG formulation reduces significantly the ROM solution error, the reduced Jacobian condition number, the number of nonlinear iterations required to reach convergence, and the wall time (thereby improving efficiency). Moreover, our numerical results reveal that the introduction of preconditioning can deliver a robust and accurate solution for test cases in which the unpreconditioned LSPG method fails to converge.

Lindsay, Payton↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation of the EDGES Low-band Antenna Beam Model

The response of the antenna is a source of uncertainty in measurements with the Experiment to Detect the Global Epoch of Reionization Signature (EDGES). We aim to validate the electromagnetic beam model of the low-band (50–100 MHz) dipole antenna with comparisons between models and against data. We find that simulations of a simplified model of the antenna over an infinite perfectly conducting ground plane are, with one exception, robust to changes in the numerical electromagnetic solver code or algorithm. For simulations of the antenna with the actual finite ground plane and realistic soil properties, we find that two out of three numerical solvers agree well. Applying our analysis pipeline to a simulated drift-scan observation from an early EDGES low-band instrument that had a 10 m × 10 m ground plane, we find residual levels after fitting and removing a five-term foreground model from the simulated data binned in local sidereal time (LST) average about 250 mK with ±40 mK variation between numerical solvers. A similar analysis of the primary 30 m × 30 m sawtooth ground plane reduced the LST-averaged residuals to about 90 mK with ±10 mK between the two viable solvers. More broadly we show that larger ground planes generally perform better than smaller ground planes. Simulated data have a power that is within 4% of real observations, a limitation of net accuracy of the sky and beam models. We observe that residual spectral structures after foreground model fits match qualitatively between simulated data and observations, suggesting that the frequency dependence of the beam is reasonably represented by the models. We find that a soil conductivity of 0.02 S m{sup -1} and relative permittivity of 3.5 yield good agreement between simulated spectra and observations. This is consistent with the soil properties reported by Sutinjo et al. for the Murchison Radio-astronomy Observatory, where EDGES is located.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Physics-Informed Persistence Models for Simultaneously Forecasting GHI, DNI, and DHI

Observation-based statistical models have been widely used in forecasting solar energy; however, existing models often lack a clear relation to physics and are limited largely to global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts over relatively short time horizons (< 1 hour). Incorporating physics into observation-based models, increasing forecast time horizons and developing a model system for forecasting not only GHI but also direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) remain challenging, especially under cloudy conditions because of complex cloud-radiation interactions. This work attempts to address these challenges by developing a hierarchy of four new physics-informed persistence models that can be used to simultaneously forecast GHI, DNI and DHI. The decade-long measurements (1998 to 2014) at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)'s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility site are used to evaluate the performance of the new models. Overall, the results show that the new physics-informed forecast models generally outperform the simple and smart persistence models, and improve the forecast accuracy at lead times from 1.25 hours up to 6 hours. Further analysis reveals that the forecast error is highly related to the error and temporal variability of the assumed cloud predictor. The best model for forecasting different radiative components can be explained by the relationship between solar irradiances and cloud properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Spatial Distribution of Snow Water Equivalent by Combining Meteorological and Satellite Data with Lidar Maps

Abstract An accurate characterization of the water content of snowpack, or snow water equivalent (SWE), is necessary to quantify water availability and constrain hydrologic and land surface models. Recently, airborne observations (e.g., lidar) have emerged as a promising method to accurately quantify SWE at high resolutions (scales of ∼100 m and finer). However, the frequency of these observations is very low, typically once or twice per season in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. Here, we present a machine learning framework that is based on random forests to model temporally sparse lidar-derived SWE, enabling estimation of SWE at unmapped time points. We approximated the physical processes governing snow accumulation and melt as well as snow characteristics by obtaining 15 different variables from gridded estimates of precipitation, temperature, surface reflectance, elevation, and canopy. Results showed that, in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, our framework is capable of modeling SWE with a higher accuracy when compared with estimates generated by the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). The mean value of the coefficient of determination R 2 using our approach was 0.57, and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 13 cm, which was a significant improvement over SNODAS (mean R 2 = 0.13; RMSE = 20 cm). We explored the relative importance of the input variables and observed that, at the spatial resolution of 800 m, meteorological variables are more important drivers of predictive accuracy than surface variables that characterize the properties of snow on the ground. This research provides a framework to expand the applicability of lidar-derived SWE to unmapped time points. Significance Statement Snowpack is the main source of freshwater for close to 2 billion people globally and needs to be estimated accurately. Mountainous snowpack is highly variable and is challenging to quantify. Recently, lidar technology has been employed to observe snow in great detail, but it is costly and can only be used sparingly. To counter that, we use machine learning to estimate snowpack when lidar data are not available. We approximate the processes that govern snowpack by incorporating meteorological and satellite data. We found that variables associated with precipitation and temperature have more predictive power than variables that characterize snowpack properties. Our work helps to improve snowpack estimation, which is critical for sustainable management of water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗