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At least 415 records · Page 23

Technoeconomics of Particle-based CSP Featuring Falling Particle Receivers with and without Active Heliostat Control

This report documents the results and conclusions of a recent project to understand the technoeconomics of utility-scale, particle-based concentrating solar power (CSP) facilities leveraging unique operational strategies. This project included two primary objectives. The first project objective was to build confidence in the modeling approaches applied to falling particle receivers (FPRs) including the effect s of wind. The second project objective was to create the necessary modeling capability to adequately predict and maximize the annual performance of utility-scale, particle-based CSP plants under anticipated conditions with and without active heliostat control. Results of an extensive model validation study provided the strongest evidence to date for the modeling strategies typically applied to FPRs, albeit at smaller receiver scales. This modeling strategy was then applied in a parametric study of candidate utility-scale FPRs, including both free-falling and multistage FPR concepts, to develop reduced order models for predicting the receiver thermal efficiency under anticipated environmental and operating conditions. Multistage FPRs were found to significantly improve receiver performance at utility-scales. These reduced order models were then leveraged in a sophisticated technoeconomic analysis to optimize utility-scale , particle-based CSP plants considering the potential of active heliostat control. In summary, active heliostat control did not show significant performance benefits to future utility-scale CSP systems though some benefit may still be realized in FPR designs with wide acceptance angles and/or with lower concentration ratios. Using the latest FPR technologies available, the levelized-cost of electricity was quantified for particle-based CSP facilities with nominal powers ranging from 5 MW e up to 100 MW e with many viable designs having costs < 0.06 $/kWh and local minimums occurring between ~25–35 MW e .

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Deposition Height Prediction in Directed Energy Deposition

Using 316L stainless steel as a model material, reduced-order models are developed to predict capture efficiency, deposition height, and site-specific hardness in directed energy deposition. Capture efficiency is predicted over a 15 to 55 pct range using a dimensionless number derived from processing conditions and thermophysical properties. Deposition height is predicted over a 0.3 to 1.3 mm range without in situ sensing or prior training data, using two models based on the same mass and energy-balance principles. Predictions are compared with machine learning approaches. A quantitative relationship links deposition height, primary dendrite arm spacing (PDAS), and hardness: heights of 0.3 to 1.1 mm correspond to PDAS values of 2.7 to 5.1 µm and Vickers hardness (HV) of 160 to 219. Thinner layers cool more rapidly, producing finer microstructures and higher hardness. Samples fabricated with in situ variations in deposition height exhibited up to 55 HV differences between thick and thin regions, demonstrating that local control of deposition height enables predictive, site-specific hardness within a single build. These results establish deposition height prediction as a pathway for a priori process design and property control in directed energy deposition for 316L stainless steel.

Kunkel, William [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (↗

Southeast Regional CO 2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA): Preliminary Regional Assessment of Potential Storage Complexes, Including Capacities and Costs, Based on Application of NRAP and SCO2T (Deliverable 3.3) Storage Complexes

The Recipient will assist with the field validation of one or more risk assessment toolsets through: 1) collaborative research; 2) sharing of relevant datasets, information, and technical insights from field efforts; and 3) other modeling and simulation toolsets as they are developed. Collaborative research could include, but is not limited to: 1) demonstrating use of field data for improved leakage pathway characterization, uncertainty reduction, and risk management and uncertainty workflows; 2) testing and validation of a specific National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tool using site specific data; and 3) improved modeling or reduced-order modeling of geophysical monitoring.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modeling the effect of shroud contact and friction dampers on the mistuned response of turbopumps

The contract has been revised. Under the revised scope of work a reduced order model has been developed that can be used to predict the steady-state response of mistuned bladed disks. The approach has been implemented in a computer code, LMCC. It is concluded that: the reduced order model displays structural fidelity comparable to that of a finite element model of an entire bladed disk system with significantly improved computational efficiency; and, when the disk is stiff, both the finite element model and LMCC predict significantly more amplitude variation than was predicted by earlier models. This second result may have important practical ramifications, especially in the case of integrally bladed disks.

Griffin, Jerry H.↗

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials Using MALAMUTE

Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, aims to develop and qualify additively-manufactured materials for nuclear applications. The key challenges to these efforts are the microstructural variabilities observed on the AM products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-through-put experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate the qualification efforts. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the AM process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture the microstructural variabilities is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning modeling capabilities to develop a digital twin for AM that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation for AM materials. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the AM process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for AM materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the various microstructural characteristics of the AM materials. Microstructures unique to AM materials, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. In fiscal year (FY) 24, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, both on physics-based and ML models. The alloy solidification model available in MOOSE has been extended to incorporate the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316SS. The model demonstrates the Cr segregation that occurs during solidifcation. It is demonstrated that rate of solidification and solute segregation is primarily influence by the cooling rate dictating the level of freezing. This work captures the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. With an aim to connect the microstructural evolution model to realistic process conditions, a reduced order model is developed for predicting the thermal conditions around meltpool from high-fidelity process simulations. Furthermore, machine learning approach is used to accelerate the temperature prediction during the AM process. In the following years, MALAMUTE will be used to connect different aspects of the models and quantitatively predict the microstructural evolution. The developed ML-based surrogate model will consider the process conditions as the input to predict the microstructural features in a cost-effective way. The generated microstructures can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work help identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property/performance prediction of the AM products. This work will provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions/simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work will help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Machine-learning based model reduction for partial differential equations

We develop a novel synergistic approach between model reduction and machine learning. The specific goal of this project is to aid in the construction of reduced order models for basis functions that are custom-made to represent the solution of partial differential equations. Partial differential equations (PDEs) are one of the main mathematical tools for describing physical phenomena. However, due to either efficiency or necessity, for many real-world problems, we are interested in constructing reduced order models (ROMs) which focus only on the explicit computation of subsets of the active spatio-temporal scales in the problem, while treating the interaction with the rest of the scales approximately. The task of accurate representation of such interactions (usually called memory terms) constitutes a vast area of research known as model reduction. PI Stinis has significant expertise in the construction of ROMs for complex systems. In addition, in recent work with the project key participant Qadeer, they have utilized machine learning to acquire custom-made basis functions (CBFs) to expand the solutions of PDEs. In the proposed work, we will merge the two concepts by constructing ROMs for subsets of the CBFs needed to represent the solution of a PDE. Specifically, we will use the Mori-Zwanzig model reduction formalism to construct ROMs for subsets of CBFs for nonlinear PDEs of various complexity, as well as investigate the usage of CBFs in the spectral vanishing viscosity method for problems that can form shocks in finite time. The outcome of the research is aimed to be proof-of-concept about a novel synergistic approach between model reduction and machine learning, thus advancing the field of scientific machine learning. Such a capability will benefit the efficient modeling of physical systems appearing in various areas of interest to the DOE.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multi-fidelity electrochemical modeling of thermally activated battery cells

Thermally activated batteries undergo a series of coupled physical changes during activation that influence battery performance. These processes include energetic material burning, heat transfer, electrolyte phase change, capillary-driven two-phase porous flow, ion transport, electrochemical reactions, and electrical transport. Several of these processes are strongly coupled and have a significant effect on battery performance, but others have minimal impact or may be suitably represented by reduced-order models. Additionally, assessing the relative importance of these phenomena must be based on comparisons to a high-fidelity model including all known processes. In this work, we first present and demonstrate a high-fidelity, multi-physics model of electrochemical performance. This novel multi-physics model enables predictions of how competing physical processes affect battery performance and provides unique insights into the difficult-to-measure processes that happen during battery activation. We introduce four categories of model fidelity that include different physical simplifications, assumptions, and reduced-order models to decouple or remove costly elements of the simulation. Using this approach, we show an order-of-magnitude reduction in computational cost while preserving all design-relevant quantities of interest within 5 percent. The validity of this approach and these model reductions is demonstrated by comparison between results from the full fidelity model and the different reduced models.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Time-dependent-bases with local CUR decomposition method for accelerating turbulent combustion simulations

Here, this study presents a novel reduced-order modeling framework, Time-Dependent Bases with Local CUR decomposition (TDB-L-CUR), designed to efficiently and accurately approximate the species transport equations in reacting flow simulations. The method extends the existing TDB-CUR approach for chemically reacting flows (Jung et al. Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Engrg. 437 (2025) 117758), which leverages matrix decomposition techniques to form a global-in-space, time-dependent low-dimensional manifold. While TDB-CUR performs well in homogeneous systems, it may be less well-suited to spatially heterogeneous systems such as turbulent flames, where higher-rank approximations are typically required. The proposed TDB-L-CUR framework introduces two methodological extensions to the baseline approach. First, it applies unsupervised clustering to partition the physical domain into distinct regions, enabling spatially localized manifold construction, thereby reducing the rank required for the reduced-order representation. Second, it incorporates a computational singular perturbation (CSP)-based scheme for identifying and penalizing fast species, allowing for spatio-temporally adaptive mitigation of chemical stiffness. The proposed framework is validated on a hierarchy of test cases, including a one-dimensional premixed flame, a two-dimensional nonpremixed ignition case with vortex interaction, and a three-dimensional turbulent premixed flame. TDB-L-CUR significantly improves accuracy over TDB-CUR while further reducing computational cost. The fully on-the-fly formulation of TDB-L-CUR (i.e., requiring no offline training or prior knowledge) makes it a robust and scalable tool for reduced-order modeling of reactive flows.

Local manifold↗

Reduced basis approximations of parameterized dynamical partial differential equations via neural networks

Projection-based reduced order models are effective at approximating parameter-dependent differential equations that are parametrically separable. When parametric separability is not satisfied, which occurs in both linear and nonlinear problems, projection-based methods fail to adequately reduce the computational complexity. Devising alternative reduced order models is crucial for obtaining efficient and accurate approximations to expensive high-fidelity models. In this work, we develop a timestepping procedure for dynamical parameter-dependent problems, in which a neural-network is trained to propagate the coefficients of a reduced basis expansion. This results in an online stage with a computational cost independent of the size of the underlying problem. Here, we demonstrate our method on several parabolic partial differential equations, including a problem that is not parametrically separable.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Global System Reduction Order Modeling for Localized Feature Inclusion

The development of reduced-order models remains an active research area, despite advances in computational resources. Here we develop a novel order-reduction approach that is designed to incorporate isolated regions that contain, for example, nonlinearitites or accumulating damage. The approach is designed to use global modes of the overall system response, which are then naturally coupled to the response in the isolated region of interest. Two examples are provided to demonstrate both the accuracy and the computational efficiency of the proposed approach. The performance of this approach is compared to the exact response corresponding to a finite element simulation for the chosen problems. In addition, the accuracy and computational efficiency are shown relative to a standard Galerkin reduction based on the linear normal modes. It is found that the proposed reduction offer computational efficiency comparable to a Galerkin reduction, but more accurately represents the response of the system when both are compared to the finite element simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An AWE Implementation for Electromagnetic Analysis

Although full wave electromagnetic systems are large and cumbersome to solve, typically only a few parameters, such as input impedance, S parameters, and far field pattern, are needed by the designer or analyst. A reduced order modeling of these parameters is therefore an important consideration in minimizing the the CPU requirements. The Asymptotic Waveform Evaluation (AWE) method is one approach to construct a reduced order model of the input impedance or other useful electromagnetic parameters. We demonstrate its application and validity when used in conjunction with the finite element method to simulate full wave electromagnetic problems.

Gong, Jian↗

Data-driven Mori–Zwanzig modeling of Lagrangian particle dynamics in turbulent flows

The dynamics of Lagrangian particles in turbulence play a crucial role in mixing, transport, and dispersion in complex flows. Their trajectories exhibit highly nontrivial statistical behavior, motivating the development of surrogate models that can reproduce these trajectories without incurring the high computational cost of direct numerical simulations of the full Eulerian field. This task is particularly challenging because reduced-order models typically lack access to the full set of interactions with the underlying turbulent field. Novel data-driven machine learning techniques can be powerful in capturing and reproducing complex statistics of the reduced-order/surrogate dynamics. In this work, we show how one can learn a surrogate dynamical system that is able to evolve a turbulent Lagrangian trajectory in a way that is point-wise accurate for short-time predictions (with respect to Kolmogorov time) and stable and statistically accurate at long times. This approach is based on the Mori–Zwanzig formalism, which prescribes a mathematical decomposition of the full dynamical system into resolved dynamics that depend on the current state and the past history of a reduced set of observables, and the unresolved orthogonal dynamics due to unresolved degrees of freedom of the initial state. We show how by training this reduced order model on a point-wise error metric on short time-prediction, we are able to correctly learn the dynamics of Lagrangian turbulence, such that also the long-time statistical behavior is stably recovered at test time. This opens up a range of applications, for example, for the control of active Lagrangian agents in turbulence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Hybrid Energy System Workflow for Energy Portfolio Optimization

This manuscript develops a workflow, driven by data analytics algorithms, to support the optimization of the economic performance of an Integrated Energy System. The goal is to determine the optimum mix of capacities from a set of different energy producers (e.g., nuclear, gas, wind and solar). A stochastic-based optimizer is employed, based on Gaussian Process Modeling, which requires numerous samples for its training. Each sample represents a time series describing the demand, load, or other operational and economic profiles for various types of energy producers. These samples are synthetically generated using a reduced order modeling algorithm that reads a limited set of historical data, such as demand and load data from past years. Numerous data analysis methods are employed to construct the reduced order models, including, for example, the Auto Regressive Moving Average, Fourier series decomposition, and the peak detection algorithm. All these algorithms are designed to detrend the data and extract features that can be employed to generate synthetic time histories that preserve the statistical properties of the original limited historical data. The optimization cost function is based on an economic model that assesses the effective cost of energy based on two figures of merit: the specific cash flow stream for each energy producer and the total Net Present Value. An initial guess for the optimal capacities is obtained using the screening curve method. The results of the Gaussian Process model-based optimization are assessed using an exhaustive Monte Carlo search, with the results indicating reasonable optimization results. The workflow has been implemented inside the Idaho National Laboratory’s Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The main contribution of this study addresses several challenges in the current optimization methods of the energy portfolios in IES: First, the feasibility of generating the synthetic time series of the periodic peak data; Second, the computational burden of the conventional stochastic optimization of the energy portfolio, associated with the need for repeated executions of system models; Third, the inadequacies of previous studies in terms of the comparisons of the impact of the economic parameters. The proposed workflow can provide a scientifically defendable strategy to support decision-making in the electricity market and to help energy distributors develop a better understanding of the performance of integrated energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Controller reduction for effective interdisciplinary design of active structures

Control problems of large aerospace structures are intrinsically interdisciplinary and require strategies which address the complete interaction between flexible structures, electromechanical actuators and sensors, and feedback control algorithms. Current research and future directions which will require an interdisciplinary team effort in dynamics, control and optimization of such structures are being surveyed. It is generally agreed that the dynamics of space structures require large scale discrete modeling, resulting in thousands of discrete unknowns. Proven control strategies, on the other hand, employ a low order controller that is based on a reduced order model of structures. Integration of such low order controllers and large scale dynamics models often leads to serious deterioration of the closed loop stability margin and even instability. To alleviate this stability deterioration while low order controllers remain effective, the following approach was investigated: (1) retain low order controllers based on reduced order models of structures as the basic control strategy; (2) introduce a compensator that will directly account for the deterioration of stability margin due to controller-structure integration; and (3) assess overall performance of the integrated control structure system by developing measures of suboptimality in the combination of (1) and (2). The benefits include: simplicity in the design of basic controllers, thus facilitating the optimization of structure control interactions; increased understanding of the roles of the compensator so as to modify the structure as well as the basic controller, if necessary, for improved performance; and adaptability to localize controllers by viewing the compensator as a systems integration filter.

Balas, Mark J.↗

Reduced Models for Chemical Kinetics derived from Parallel Ensemble Simulations of Stirred Reactors

Detailed chemical kinetic models are essential to improve the predictive capability of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and to impact the development of next generation combustion technologies. However, such detailed kinetic models are beyond the reach of CFD codes due to the computational cost of transporting additional chemical degrees of freedom. Reduced order models for combustion kinetics exploit the presence of lower dimensional manifolds in the state space and require far fewer number of scalars to be transported as part of CFD simulations. In this paper, we describe the software infrastructure developed to allow large ensembles of stirred reactor configurations with detailed chemical kinetics. The canonical reactor simulations are incorporated in a workflow with sparse grid and data reduction methodologies aimed at development of reduced order models. We present results from analyzing the results of the stirred reactor calculations for syngas mixture using principal component analysis (PCA) and neural network methodologies. The results show that nonlinear autoencoder model can surpass PCA in representing the original dataset with far fewer degrees of freedom.

Zhang, Pei↗

A dynamic analysis of the motion of a low-wing general aviation aircraft about its calculated equilibrium flat spin mode

The properties of the flat spin mode of a general aviation configuration have been studied through analysis of rotary balance data, numerical simulation, and analytical study of the equilibrium state. The equilibrium state is predicted well from rotary balance data. The variations of yawing moment and pitching moment as functions of sideslip have been shown to be of great importance in obtaining accurate modeling. These dependencies are not presently available with sufficient accuracy from previous tests or theories. The stability of the flat spin mode has been examined extensively using numerical linearization, classical perturbation methods, and reduced order modeling. The stability exhibited by the time histories and the eigenvalue analyses is shown to be strongly dependent on certain static cross derivatives and more so on the dynamic derivatives. Explicit stability criteria are obtained from the reduced order models.

Tischler, M. B.↗

Operator inference for non-intrusive model reduction with quadratic manifolds

This paper proposes a novel approach for learning a data-driven quadratic manifold from high-dimensional data, then employing this quadratic manifold to derive efficient physics-based reduced-order models. The key ingredient of the approach is a polynomial mapping between high-dimensional states and a low-dimensional embedding. This mapping consists of two parts: a representation in a linear subspace (computed in this work using the proper orthogonal decomposition) and a quadratic component. The approach can be viewed as a form of data-driven closure modeling, since the quadratic component introduces directions into the approximation that lie in the orthogonal complement of the linear subspace, but without introducing any additional degrees of freedom to the low-dimensional representation. Combining the quadratic manifold approximation with the operator inference method for projection-based model reduction leads to a scalable non-intrusive approach for learning reduced-order models of dynamical systems. Further, applying the new approach to transport-dominated systems of partial differential equations illustrates the gains in efficiency that can be achieved over approximation in a linear subspace.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Data-driven wind turbine wake modeling via probabilistic machine learning

Wind farm design primarily depends on the variability of the wind turbine wake flows to the atmospheric wind conditions and the interaction between wakes. Physics-based models that capture the wake flow field with high-fidelity are computationally very expensive to perform layout optimization of wind farms, and, thus, data-driven reduced-order models can represent an efficient alternative for simulating wind farms. In this work, we use real-world light detection and ranging (LiDAR) measurements of wind-turbine wakes to construct predictive surrogate models using machine learning. Specifically, we first demonstrate the use of deep autoencoders to find a low-dimensional latent space that gives a computationally tractable approximation of the wake LiDAR measurements. Then, we learn the mapping between the parameter space and the (latent space) wake flow fields using a deep neural network. Additionally, we also demonstrate the use of a probabilistic machine learning technique, namely, Gaussian process modeling, to learn the parameter-space-latent-space mapping in addition to the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in the data. Finally, to cope with training large datasets, we demonstrate the use of variational Gaussian process models that provide a tractable alternative to the conventional Gaussian process models for large datasets. Furthermore, we introduce the use of active learning to adaptively build and improve a conventional Gaussian process model predictive capability. Overall, we find that our approach provides accurate approximations of the wind-turbine wake flow field that can be queried at an orders-of-magnitude cheaper cost than those generated with high-fidelity physics-based simulations.

Deep neural networks↗