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DOE OSTI2022

Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

Resource adequacy analysis quantifies the likelihood of capacity shortfall on a power system in a probabilistic manner. Using a combination of statistical techniques and power system fundamentals, the analysis typically evaluates hundreds or thousands of stochastic random samples (replications) of varying load, generator outages, variable renewable energy availability, and other aspects of power system uncertainty. In this range of uncertainty, there are - at times - periods where the power system's available resources are insufficient to meet system demand, referred to as a shortfall event. Today's power systems' rapidly evolving generation mix is changing the types of data needed by system planners and regulators, which can often render traditional resource adequacy metrics insufficient for ensuring resource adequacy for tomorrow's grid. In this paper we provide a critical assessment of traditional measures of shortfall risk in power systems, discussing their shortcomings and how they compare to metrics used in other domains. From this analysis we propose four steps forward for improving power system resource adequacy risk metrics in the future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Beyond Expected Values Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Estimating the required logistical resources to support the development of a sustainable corn stover bioeconomy in the USA

In this paper, the logistical resources required to develop a bioeconomy based on corn stover in the USA are quantified, including field equipment, storage sites, transportation and handling equipment, workforce, corn growers, and corn lands. These resources are essential to mobilize large quantities of corn stover from corn fields to biorefineries. The logistical resources are estimated over the lifetime of the biorefineries. Seventeen corn-growing states are considered for the logistical resource assessment. Over 6.8 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol can be produced annually from 108 million dry tons of corn stover in these states. The maximum number of required field equipment (i.e., choppers, balers, collectors, loaders, and tractors) is estimated to be 194 110 units with a total economic value of about 26 billion dollars. In addition, 40 780 trucks and flatbed trailers would be required to transport bales from corn fields and storage sites to biorefineries with a total economic value of 4.0 billion dollars. About 88 899 corn growers need to be contracted with an annual net income of over 2.1 billion dollars. About 1903 storage sites would be required to hold 53.1 million dry tons of inventory after the harvest season. These storage sites would take up about 35 320.2 acres and 4077 loaders with an economic value of 0.4 billion dollars would handle this inventory. The total required workforce to run the logistics operations is estimated to be 50 567. Furthermore, the magnitude of the estimated logistical resources demonstrates the economic and social significance of the corn stover bioeconomy in rural areas in the USA.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2019

The future of legume genetic data resources: Challenges, opportunities, and priorities

Abstract Legumes, comprising one of the largest, most diverse, and most economically important plant families, are the subject of vibrant research and development worldwide. Continued improvement of legume crops will benefit from the recent proliferation of genetic (including genomic) resources; but the diversity, scale, and complexity of these resources presents challenges to those managing and using them. A workshop held in March of 2019 addressed questions of data resources and priorities for the legumes. The workshop identified various needs and recommendations: (a) Develop strategies to effectively store, integrate, and relate genetic resources collected in different projects. (b) Leverage information collected across many legume species by standardizing data formats and ontologies, improving the state of metadata about datasets, and increasing use of the FAIR data principles. (c) Advocate for the critical role that curators exercise in integrating complex datasets into databases and adding high value metadata that enable downstream analytics and facilitate practical applications. (d) Implement standardized software and database development practices to best leverage limited developer time and expertise gained from the various legume (and other) species. (e) Develop tools and databases that can manage genetic information for the world's plant genetic resources, enabling efficient incorporation of important traits into breeding programs. (f) Centralize information on databases, tools, and training materials and establish funding streams to support training and outreach.

Bauchet, Guillaume J.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Fossil resource and energy security dynamics in conventional and carbon-constrained worlds

Fossil resource endowments and the future development of fossil fuel prices are important factors that will critically influence the nature and direction of the global energy system. In this paper we analyze a multi-model ensemble of long-term energy and emissions scenarios that were developed within the framework of the EMF27 integrated assessment model inter-comparison exercise. The diverse nature of these models highlights large uncertainties in the likely development of fossil resource (coal, oil, and natural gas) consumption, trade, and prices over the course of the twenty-first century and under different climate policy frameworks. We explore and explain some of the differences across scenarios and models and compare the scenario results with fossil resource estimates from the literature. A robust finding across the suite of IAMs is that the cumulative fossil fuel consumption foreseen by the models is well within the bounds of estimated recoverable reserves and resources. Hence, fossil resource constraints are, in and of themselves, unlikely to limit future GHG emissions. Our analysis also shows that climate mitigation policies could lead to a major reallocation of financial flows between regions, in terms of expenditures on fossil fuels and carbon, and can help to alleviate near-term energy security concerns via the reductions in oil imports and increases in energy system diversity they will help to motivate.

McCollum, David↗

DOE OSTI2017

Cost Implications of Uncertainty in CO{sub 2} Storage Resource Estimates: A Review

Carbon capture from stationary sources and geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) is an important option to include in strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. However, the potential costs of commercial-scale CO{sub 2} storage are not well constrained, stemming from the inherent uncertainty in storage resource estimates coupled with a lack of detailed estimates of the infrastructure needed to access those resources. Storage resource estimates are highly dependent on storage efficiency values or storage coefficients, which are calculated based on ranges of uncertain geological and physical reservoir parameters. If dynamic factors (such as variability in storage efficiencies, pressure interference, and acceptable injection rates over time), reservoir pressure limitations, boundaries on migration of CO{sub 2}, consideration of closed or semi-closed saline reservoir systems, and other possible constraints on the technically accessible CO{sub 2} storage resource (TASR) are accounted for, it is likely that only a fraction of the TASR could be available without incurring significant additional costs. Although storage resource estimates typically assume that any issues with pressure buildup due to CO{sub 2} injection will be mitigated by reservoir pressure management, estimates of the costs of CO{sub 2} storage generally do not include the costs of active pressure management. Production of saline waters (brines) could be essential to increasing the dynamic storage capacity of most reservoirs, but including the costs of this critical method of reservoir pressure management could increase current estimates of the costs of CO{sub 2} storage by two times, or more. Even without considering the implications for reservoir pressure management, geologic uncertainty can significantly impact CO{sub 2} storage capacities and costs, and contribute to uncertainty in carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems. Given the current state of available information and the scarcity of (data from) long-term commercial-scale CO{sub 2} storage projects, decision makers may experience considerable difficulty in ascertaining the realistic potential, the likely costs, and the most beneficial pattern of deployment of CCS as an option to reduce CO{sub 2} concentrations in the atmosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

A National-Scale Comparison of Resource and Nutrient Demands for Algae-Based Biofuel Production by Lipid Extraction and Hydrothermal Liquefaction

Algae’s high productivity provides potential resource advantages over other fuel crops. However, demand for land, water, and nutrients must be minimized to avoid impacts on food production. We apply our national-scale, open-pond, growth and resource models to assess several biomass to fuel technological pathways based on Chlorella. We compare resource demands between hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) and lipid extraction (LE) to meet 1.89E+10 and 7.95E+10 L yr-1 biofuel targets. We estimate nutrient demands where post-fuel biomass is consumed as co-products and recycling by anaerobic digestion (AD) or catalytic hydrothermal gasification (CHG). Sites are selected through prioritization based on fuel value relative to a set of site-specific resource costs. The highest priority sites are located along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but potential sites exist nationwide. We find that HTL reduces land and freshwater consumption by up to 46% and saline groundwater by around 70%. Without recycling, nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) demand is reduced 33%, but is large relative to current U.S. agricultural consumption. The most nutrient-efficient pathways are LE+CHG for N and HTL+CHG for P (by 42%). Resource gains for HTL+CHG are offset by a 344% increase in N consumption relative to LE+CHG (with potential for further recycling). Nutrient recycling is essential to effective use of alternative nutrient sources. Modeling of utilization availability and costs remains, but we find that for HTL+CHG at the 7.95E+10 L yr-1 production target, municipal sources can offset 17% of N and 40% of P demand and animal manures can generally meet demands.

algae biofuel, sustainability, flue gas, nitrogen,↗

DOE OSTI2018

Index system of urban resource and environment carrying capacity based on ecological civilization

Highlights: • Ecological civilization is an important pathway to sustainable development. • An index system established based on the concept of ecological civilization. • The index system focus on the environmental quality and resource use efficiency. • The index system dynamically reflects the key issues of ecological civilization. • The evaluation results provide guidance for ecological civilization of a city. - Abstract: ‘Ecological Civilization’ is a Chinese characteristic concept. It is an important pathway for China to achieve sustainable development and has become a key strategy to address China's serious resource and environmental issues. To solve the disparity between resources and the environment, an index system of urban resource and environment carrying capacity (URECC) based on ecological civilization should be established. This study explored the new connotations of URECC, and constructed an evaluation index system that contains 18 indicators selected from water carrying capacity, land carrying capacity, atmospheric environmental carrying capacity, energy carrying capacity, and environmental carrying capacity of solid waste. The index system fully embodies the supporting and restraining function to resources and environment for human development and reflects the dynamic change of URECC. We used URECC of Tianjin from 2007 to 2015 as a case study. The results reveal that the index system is not only able to reflect the current status of URECC, but also reflects the changes of increment to the original carrying capacity, so that economic and social development can be constrained within URECC. It provides a reference for future research on the carrying capacity index system of the city, and also has important practical significance to guide the sustainable development of the city.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Low-dose-rate Brachytherapy for Prostate Cancer in Low-resource Settings

Purpose: In areas with limited health care, it is important to identify and implement effective treatment methods and to optimize available resources. We investigated the implementation of a low-dose-rate (LDR) brachytherapy program for the treatment of prostate cancer (PCa) in a low-resource setting such as Puerto Rico (PR), where PCa is the main cause of cancer-associated death. Methods and Materials: After institutional approval, the medical records of patients with nonmetastatic PCa undergoing LDR brachytherapy from 2008 to 2013 were reviewed from PR. The factors analyzed included adequate D{sub 90} (radiation dose delivered to 90% of the target volume) coverage (≥140 Gy), early and late toxicity (Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events grade >2), and prostate-specific antigen failure. Freedom from biochemical failure was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results: The barriers to implementation of LDR brachytherapy in a country with limited resources were identified. These included lack of access to funding for startup costs, specific referral patterns, lack of trained support staff, such as dosimetrists and physicists, and initial opposition from insurance companies for reimbursement. The initial results from 191 patients were included in the present study with a median follow-up period of 26 months. Prostate-specific antigen failure occurred in 6 patients (3%). No early or late gastrointestinal toxicity (grade >2) developed. Only 3 (2%) and 2 (1%) patients experienced early and late genitourinary toxicity (grade >2), respectively. The 2- and 3-year freedom from biochemical failure in this population was 97% and 95.9%, respectively. Conclusions: At present, limited data are available delineating the barriers faced by low-resource settings in the implementation of LDR brachytherapy. Our data highlight the issues unique to this environment and support the use of LDR brachytherapy as a reliable and effective treatment modality for patients with PCa in low-resource settings.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2023

First estimation of high-resolution solar photovoltaic resource maps over China with Fengyun-4A satellite and machine learning

Fengyun-4A (FY-4A), which is the latest-generation Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite, measures solar reflection and thermal emission with high temporal, spatial, and spectral resolutions. It is expected to be highly beneficial for solar resource assessment and forecasting in China. This study is the first to estimate, using FY-4A and a random forest model, the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) at a 4-km–15-min spatio-temporal resolution over China, as a means to arrive at a solar photovoltaic (PV) resource map. In terms of GHI estimates, the root mean square error and mean bias error between hourly measured and retrieved values are 147.02 (35.2%), –5.64 W/m 2 (–1.4%), respectively, whereas the values of daily estimates are 29.20 (18.0%), –2.97 W/m 2 (–1.3%). The retrieval accuracy is found much better for instances with solar zenith angles smaller than 60°. Relatively larger errors are found at locations in the Sichuan Basin and northeastern China, which can be attributed to bright surfaces and/or strong cloud transients. With the retrieved irradiance, PV resource is derived through a physical model chain. The annual mean PV resource map suggests that, over most of the west areas, the annual mean effective irradiance exceeds 1700 kWh/m 2 , with the highest value found in Tibet (around 2000 kWh/m 2 per annum). Eastern China has an annual effective irradiance of only 1300–1500 kWh/m 2 . In conclusion, the region with poorest solar resource is the Sichuan Basin (less than 1100 kWh/m 2 per annum).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Technology Impact and Resource Assessment of Existing and Planned U.S. Biofuel Production: Life Cycle Water Consumption, Water Stress, Land Use, and Criteria Air Pollutants

Biofuels have the potential to strengthen the U.S. energy supply, enhance energy security, and promote economic development. As the United States continues to expand biofuel production, quantifying resource requirements and location-specific constraints is crucial for planning, siting, and technology development to support long-term viability. Accordingly, this work assesses the life cycle resource consumption (water consumption, and land use), water stress and criteria air pollutants associated with expanded U.S. biofuel production over the 2020–2035 period, based on producers’ plans. We perform a bottom-up technology impact assessment and resource assessment by integrating facility-level production statistics with Argonne’s Research and Development (R&D) GREET model and county-level water-stress characterization factors from Available Water Remaining for the United States (AWARE-US) model. Results suggest that by 2035, biofuels could meaningfully contribute to U.S. energy demand, driven primarily by first-generation and waste-based feedstocks with plans for substantial capacity expansion, although cellulosic and e-fuel technologies remain limited. However, growth must be managed to minimize impacts on water resources and land use. These impacts vary by fuel type and facility location, specifically, projected expansion increases water consumption and can elevate water-stress impacts in certain regions like Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Idaho, California and North Texas. Direct land use also increases overall, particularly for first-generation feedstocks such as corn and soybeans. These findings underscore the need for continued technological improvements and innovative strategies to manage resource demands as the industry scales and to support complementary deployment within the evolving U.S. energy system.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Novel Multiagent Resource Sharing Algorithm for Control of Advanced Energy Systems

This paper implements a novel resource sharing control strategy on a fuel cell–gas turbine hybrid power system at the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s Hybrid Performance Facility (Hyper). In a fuel cell–gas turbine hybrid power system, the simultaneous interaction of the gas turbine and the fuel cell creates a tightly coupled environment characterized by conflicting dynamics. In this paper, a model-free control approach is applied to solve the tightly coupled control problem posed by this challenging environment. Specifically, this control problem is presented as a resource sharing problem that can be solved using a resource sharing algorithm that is defined based on the distribution construction concept. This algorithm creates computational agents and solves the problem through the distribution and redistribution of shared resources defined as blocks. Furthermore, two agents were created; the first agent (agent 1) controls the gas turbine speed by adjusting the electric load, and the second agent (agent 2) controls the cathode mass flow through the fuel cell using the cold-air bypass valve. A parametric study was performed over the course of 15 experimental tests for both agents 1 and 2 through an evaluation of the responses based on setpoint changes. The algorithm was shown to have behavior comparable to a previously implemented multi-input multioutput state-space controller, which was designed through a model-based control approach. The resource sharing algorithm was able to find stable performance during run-time operations without any prior system knowledge identification on the power plant and without creating models used in traditional control strategies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2019

HPC resource integration into CMS Computing via HEPCloud

The higher energy and luminosity from the LHC in Run 2 have put increased pressure on CMS computing resources. Extrapolating to even higher luminosities (and thus higher event complexities and trigger rates) beyond Run 3, it becomes clear that simply scaling up the the current model of CMS computing alone will become economically unfeasible. High Performance Computing (HPC) facilities, widely used in scientific computing outside of HEP, have the potential to help fill the gap. Here we describe the U.S.CMS efforts to integrate US HPC resources into CMS Computing via the HEPCloud project at Fermilab. We present advancements in our ability to use NERSC resources at scale and efforts to integrate other HPC sites as well. We present experience in the elastic use of HPC resources, quickly scaling up use when so required by CMS workflows. We also present performance studies of the CMS multi-threaded framework on both Haswell and KNL HPC resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

CMS Computing Resources: Meeting the demands of the high-luminosity LHC physics program

The high-luminosity program has seen numerous extrapolations of its needed computing resources that each indicate the need for substantial changes if the desired HL-LHC physics program is to be supported within the current level of computing resource budgets. Drivers include large increases in event complexity (leading to increased processing time and analysis data size) and trigger rates needed (5-10 fold increases) for the HL-LHC program. The CMS experiment has recently undertaken an effort to merge the ideas behind short-term and long-term resource models in order to make easier and more reliable extrapolations to future needs. Near term computing resource estimation requirements depend on numerous parameters: LHC uptime and beam intensities; detector and online trigger performance; software performance; analysis data requirements; data access, management, and retention policies; site characteristics; and network performance. Longer term modeling is affected by the same characteristics, but with much larger uncertainties that must be considered to understand the most interesting handles for increasing the "physics per computing dollar" of the HL-LHC. In this presentation, we discuss the current status of long term modeling of the CMS computing resource needs for HL-LHC with emphasis on techniques for extrapolations, uncertainty quantification, and model results. We illustrate potential ways that high-luminosity CMS could accomplish its desired physics program within today's computing budgets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

The integration of heterogeneous resources in the CMS Submission Infrastructure for the LHC Run 3 and beyond

While the computing landscape supporting LHC experiments is currently dominated by x86 processors at WLCG sites, this configuration will evolve in the coming years. LHC collaborations will be increasingly employing HPC and Cloud facilities to process the vast amounts of data expected during the LHC Run 3 and the future HL-LHC phase. These facilities often feature diverse compute resources, including alternative CPU architectures like ARM and IBM Power, as well as a variety of GPU specifications. Using these heterogeneous resources efficiently is thus essential for the LHC collaborations reaching their future scientific goals. The Submission Infrastructure (SI) is a central element in CMS Computing, enabling resource acquisition and exploitation by CMS data processing, simulation and analysis tasks. The SI must therefore be adapted to ensure access and optimal utilization of this heterogeneous compute capacity. Some steps in this evolution have been already taken, as CMS is currently using opportunistically a small pool of GPU slots provided mainly at the CMS WLCG sites. Additionally, Power9 processors have been validated for CMS production at the Marconi-100 cluster at CINECA. This note will describe the updated capabilities of the SI to continue ensuring the efficient allocation and use of computing resources by CMS, despite their increasing diversity. The next steps towards a full integration and support of heterogeneous resources according to CMS needs will also be reported.

Pérez-Calero Yzquierdo, Antonio↗

DOE OSTI2017

Consolidating WLCG topology and configuration in the Computing Resource Information Catalogue

Here, the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid infrastructure links about 200 participating computing centres affiliated with several partner projects. It is built by integrating heterogeneous computer and storage resources in diverse data centres all over the world and provides CPU and storage capacity to the LHC experiments to perform data processing and physics analysis. In order to be used by the experiments, these distributed resources should be well described, which implies easy service discovery and detailed description of service configuration. Currently this information is scattered over multiple generic information sources like GOCDB, OIM, BDII and experiment-specific information systems. Such a model does not allow to validate topology and configuration information easily. Moreover, information in various sources is not always consistent. Finally, the evolution of computing technologies introduces new challenges. Experiments are more and more relying on opportunistic resources, which by their nature are more dynamic and should also be well described in the WLCG information system. This contribution describes the new WLCG configuration service CRIC (Computing Resource Information Catalogue) which collects information from various information providers, performs validation and provides a consistent set of UIs and APIs to the LHC VOs for service discovery and usage configuration. The main requirements for CRIC are simplicity, agility and robustness. CRIC should be able to be quickly adapted to new types of computing resources, new information sources, and allow for new data structures to be implemented easily following the evolution of the computing models and operations of the experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing quantum simulations of the nuclear shell model with Gray-code–based resource-efficient protocols

Background: Some of the computational limitations in solving the nuclear many-body problem could be overcome by utilizing quantum computers. The nuclear shell-model calculations providing deeper insights into the properties of atomic nuclei are one such case with high demand for resources, as the size of the Hilbert space grows exponentially with the number of particles involved. Quantum algorithms are being developed to overcome these challenges and advance such calculations. Purpose: To develop quantum circuits for the nuclear shell-model, leveraging the capabilities of noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. Here, we aim to minimize resource requirements (specifically in terms of qubits and gates) and strive to reduce the impact of noise by employing relevant mitigation techniques. Methods: We achieve noise resilience by designing an optimized Ansatz for the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) based on Givens rotations and incorporating qubit-ADAPT-VQE in combination with variational quantum deflation (VQD) to compute ground and excited states, incorporating the zero-noise extrapolation mitigation technique. Furthermore, the qubit requirements are significantly reduced by mapping the basis states to qubits using Gray-code encoding and generalizing transformations of fermionic operators to efficiently represent many-body states. Results: By employing the resource-efficient protocols, we achieve the ground and excited state energy levels of 38 Ar and 6 Li with better accuracy. These energy levels are presented for noiseless simulations, noisy conditions, and after applying noise mitigation techniques. Results are compared for Jordan-Wigner and Gray-code encoding using VQE, qubit-ADAPT-VQE, and VQD. Conclusions: Our work highlights the potential of resource-efficient protocols to leverage the full potential of NISQ devices in scaling the nuclear shell model calculations, offering a pathway toward more complex quantum simulations in nuclear physics. This approach establishes a framework for studying other nuclear systems with improved quantum resource efficiency, marking a significant advancement in applying quantum computing to realistic nuclear physics applications.

Physics - Nuclear physics and radiation physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Virtual Power Plants Reliably: Enabling tools for increased observability, controllability, operation, and aggregation of distributed energy resources

Harnessing virtual power plants enhances the integration of distributed energy resources into utility grids for a sustainable energy future. Virtual power plants (VPPs) aggregate DERs to enhance resource adequacy and reduce emissions. U.S. utilities are exploring various technologies to manage DERs effectively. FERC Order 2222 allows DERs to participate in both wholesale and retail markets. Enhancing observability and controllability of behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs is essential for reliable grid operations. A hierarchical control architecture can improve coordination among residential energy resources. Field tests showed nearly 20% energy savings and 30% peak power reduction during grid events. Effective management of DERs requires enhanced situational awareness to prevent grid congestion. Integrating DER management systems (DERMS) with existing planning tools can improve operational security. Near-real-time grid models can validate optimal resource set points against resource uncertainty. Traditional uninterruptible power supplies (UPS) can be upgraded to support grid services and become part of VPPs. Upgrading UPS systems can reduce costs by 75% and unlock significant battery capacity. New battery management systems and grid-aware controllers are essential for optimizing UPS performance. Continued research and development are necessary to address challenges in integrating DERs into utility grids. Encouraging customer participation in pilot programs is vital for the evolution of VPPs. Here, the shift towards price-responsive DERs and VPPs is expected to enhance energy distribution efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗