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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A review of thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling of coupled processes in fractured rock: From continuum to discontinuum perspective

Coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes in fractured rock are playing a crucial role in geoscience and geoengineering applications. Diverse and conceptually distinct approaches have emerged over the past decades in both continuum and discontinuum perspectives leading to significant progress in their comprehending and modeling. This review paper offers an integrated perspective on existing modeling methodologies providing guidance for model selection based on the initial and boundary conditions. By comparing various models, one can better assess the uncertainties in predictions, particularly those related to the conceptual models. The review explores how these methodologies have significantly enhanced the fundamental understanding of how fractures respond to fluid injection and production, and improved predictive capabilities pertaining to coupled processes within fractured systems. It emphasizes the importance of utilizing advanced computational technologies and thoroughly considering fundamental theories and principles established through past experimental evidence and practical experience. The selection and calibration of model parameters should be based on typical ranges and applied to the specific conditions of applications. The challenges arising from inherent heterogeneity and uncertainties, nonlinear THM coupled processes, scale dependence, and computational limitations in representing field scale fractures are discussed. Realizing potential advances on computational capacity calls for methodical conceptualization, mathematical modeling, selection of numerical solution strategies, implementation, and calibration to foster simulation outcomes that intricately reflect the nuanced complexities of geological phenomena. Future research efforts should focus on innovative approaches to tackle the hurdles and advance the state-of-the-art in this critical field of study.

Coupling scheme↗
NASA NTRS1998

SPARCLE: Validation of Observing System Simulations (SPace Readiness Coherent Lidar Experiment)

NASA recently approved a mission to fly a Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL) on a U.S. Space Shuttle. SPARCLE, managed by Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, is targeted for launch in March 2001. This mission is viewed as a necessary demonstration of a solid state (2 micron) lidar using coherent detection before committing resources to a 3-5 year research or operational mission. While, to many, this shuttle mission is seen as the first step in a series leading to a fully operational wind observing system, to others, it is a chance to validate predictions of performance based upon theoretical models, analyses of airborne and ground-based data, and sophisticated observing system simulation experiments. This paper will be presented in two parts: first a brief overview of the SPARCLE mission and second, a summary of current performance predictions and key contributions from ground- based and airborne DWL research. The SPARCLE instrument is a 100 mJ, 6 Hz, diode-pumped 2-micron laser with a .25 m telescope using heterodyne mixing in a fiber and an InGaAs detector. A 25 cm silicon wedge scanner will be used in step-stare modes with dwells ranging from 60 seconds to .5 seconds. Pointing knowledge is achieved with a dedicated GPS/INS mounted close to the lidar. NASA's Hitchhiker program is providing the instrument enclosures (2 cans) and mission logistics support. An on-board data system is sized to record 150 Gbytes of raw signal from a two 400 MHZ A/D converters. On-board signal processing will be used to control the frequency of the Local Oscillator. SPARCLE is predicted to have a single shot backscatter sensitivity near 1x10(exp -6) m-1 sr-1, To achieve higher sensitivity, shot accumulation will be employed. Ground-based, 2 micron DWLs have been used to assess the benefits of shot accumulation (approximately SQRT for SNR). Airborne programs like MACAWS have provided good datasets for evaluating various sampling strategies and signal processing algorithms. Using these real data to calibrate our simulation models, we can describe when and how well SPARCLE is expected to preform. Outputs from these performance models will be presented.

Emmitt, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Earth System Model Parameter Adjustment Using a Green's Functions Approach

We demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of using a Green's functions estimation approach for adjusting uncertain parameters in an Earth system model (ESM). This estimation approach has previously been applied to an intermediate-complexity climate model and to individual ESM components, e.g., ocean, sea ice, or carbon cycle components. Here, the Green's functions approach is applied to a state-of-the-art ESM that comprises a global atmosphere/land configuration of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) coupled to an ocean and sea ice configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm). Horizontal grid spacing is approximately 110 km for GEOS and 37–110 km for MITgcm. In addition to the reference GEOS-MITgcm simulation, we carried out a series of model sensitivity experiments, in which 20 uncertain parameters are perturbed. These “control” parameters can be used to adjust sea ice, microphysics, turbulence, radiation, and surface schemes in the coupled simulation. We defined eight observational targets: sea ice fraction, net surface shortwave radiation, downward longwave radiation, near-surface temperature, sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and ocean temperature and salinity at 300 m. We applied the Green's functions approach to optimize the values of the 20 control parameters so as to minimize a weighted least-squares distance between the model and the eight observational targets. The new experiment with the optimized parameters resulted in a total cost reduction of 9 % relative to a simulation that had already been adjusted using other methods. The optimized experiment attained a balanced cost reduction over most of the observational targets. We also report on results from a set of sensitivity experiments that are not used in the final optimized simulation but helped explore options and guided the optimization process. These experiments include an assessment of sensitivity to the number of control parameters and to the selection of observational targets and weights in the cost function. Based on these sensitivity experiments, we selected a specific definition for the cost function. The sensitivity experiments also revealed a decreasing overall cost as the number of control variables was increased. In summary, we recommend using the Green's functions estimation approach as an additional fine-tuning step in the model development process. The method is not a replacement for modelers' experience in choosing and adjusting sensitive model parameters. Instead, it is an additional practical and effective tool for carrying out final adjustments of uncertain ESM parameters.

Green's Function↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Machine Learning to Infer Material Properties of Debris Fragments from X-ray Images in the DebriSat Project

The DebriSat project is a collaboration effort with the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command Center, The Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida. To date, over 200,000 fragments from this ground-based, hypervelocity impact experiment have been collected, and processing is underway to determine their physical characteristics, such as material, shape, color, characteristic length, and average cross-sectional area. The x-ray process is primarily used to identify the location of the fragments and estimated size for extraction, so that these physical characteristics can be assessed. This paper proposes a machine learning-based approach to characterize materials from x-ray images of debris fragments embedded in soft-catch foam used in the DebriSat project. The novel methodology discussed in this paper will highlight the use of x-ray imagery data to characterize these fragments without extraction or a human-in-the-loop. Both supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques are utilized with this approach to infer the physical parameters of the fragments embedded in the soft-catch foam panels used in the impact experiment based on x-ray images of the foam panels. Additionally, 3D reconstructions of the extracted fragments are created with images taken from two different angles using the structure from motion (SfM) method. The characteristic lengths and shape from the 3D reconstruction, alongside the physical characteristics of the debris, are used in the inference of the material type. To develop and test the approach, a dataset of x-ray images of debris fragments of varying sizes and materials is collected. Supervised learning methods such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), support vector machines (SVM), decision trees, and random forest classifiers are used due to the high-dimensional feature spaces of the debris and nonlinear decision boundaries for material categorization. Given the limited pre-labeled data of embedded debris materials smaller than 10 mm, unsupervised machine learning techniques such as clustering algorithms and autoencoders are used, in addition to supervised learning methods. The clustering algorithms group similar fragments together based on their physical properties, and autoencoders reduce the dimensionality of the x ray images and extract relevant features. The performance of the proposed approach's is analyzed using a range of statistical methods, including confusion matrices, receiver operating characteristic curves, and precision-recall curves. The results are compared with those obtained using a baseline approach that relies on manual identification and classification of debris fragments. To evaluate the effectiveness of different machine learning methods, statistical tests such as t-tests, ANOVA, and cross-validation are performed, comparing the performance of CNNs, SVMs, clustering algorithms, and autoencoders. Additional analysis needs to be conducted to identify any sources of bias or variability that may affect the results, such as variations in imaging conditions or fragmentation patterns. Other topics explored are limitations, refinements, and the potential use of semi-supervised learning techniques, such as self-training to label unlabeled datasets and co-training using x-ray images taken from two different angles as two different models.

Saik Anam Siam↗
NASA NTRS2023

Using Machine Learning to Infer Material Properties of Debris Fragments from X-ray Images in the DebriSat Project

The DebriSat project is a collaboration effort with the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command Center, The Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida. To date, over 200,000 fragments from this ground-based, hypervelocity impact experiment have been collected, and processing is underway to determine their physical characteristics, such as material, shape, color, characteristic length, and average cross-sectional area. The x-ray process is primarily used to identify the location of the fragments and estimated size for extraction, so that these physical characteristics can be assessed. This paper proposes a machine learning-based approach to characterize materials from x-ray images of debris fragments embedded in soft-catch foam used in the DebriSat project. The novel methodology discussed in this paper will highlight the use of x-ray imagery data to characterize these fragments without extraction or a human-in-the-loop. Both supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques are utilized with this approach to infer the physical parameters of the fragments embedded in the soft-catch foam panels used in the impact experiment based on x-ray images of the foam panels. Additionally, 3D reconstructions of the extracted fragments are created with images taken from two different angles using the structure from motion (SfM) method. The characteristic lengths and shape from the 3D reconstruction, alongside the physical characteristics of the debris, are used in the inference of the material type. To develop and test the approach, a dataset of x-ray images of debris fragments of varying sizes and materials is collected. Supervised learning methods such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), support vector machines (SVM), decision trees, and random forest classifiers are used due to the high-dimensional feature spaces of the debris and nonlinear decision boundaries for material categorization. Given the limited pre-labeled data of embedded debris materials smaller than 10 mm, unsupervised machine learning techniques such as clustering algorithms and autoencoders are used, in addition to supervised learning methods. The clustering algorithms group similar fragments together based on their physical properties, and autoencoders reduce the dimensionality of the x ray images and extract relevant features. The performance of the proposed approach's is analyzed using a range of statistical methods, including confusion matrices, receiver operating characteristic curves, and precision-recall curves. The results are compared with those obtained using a baseline approach that relies on manual identification and classification of debris fragments. To evaluate the effectiveness of different machine learning methods, statistical tests such as t-tests, ANOVA, and cross-validation are performed, comparing the performance of CNNs, SVMs, clustering algorithms, and autoencoders. Additional analysis needs to be conducted to identify any sources of bias or variability that may affect the results, such as variations in imaging conditions or fragmentation patterns. Other topics explored are limitations, refinements, and the potential use of semi-supervised learning techniques, such as self-training to label unlabeled datasets and co-training using x-ray images taken from two different angles as two different models.

Saik Anam Siam↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Remote Sensing of Hail from Space: Retrievals, Climatologies, and Challenges Going Forward

In addition to the myriad threats that severe hailstorms pose to society, infrastructure and agriculture, severe hail is difficult to measure in situ, and surface-based hail reporting and detection methods are inconsistent and subject to geographical or societal biases. This motivates the use of spaceborne remote-sensing platforms to retrieve hail and construct climatologies in the most globally consistent way. Passive-microwave algorithms leverage the sensitivity of spaceborne passive-microwave radiometers to scattering by hail, particularly in the channels from 10 to 89 GHz. These retrievals are used to construct global climatologies of severe hail. The Bang and Cecil (2019) retrievals has been applied to several different spaceborne sensors: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensors and used to construct [near] global climatologies of severe hail. This retrieval, and others, have been tested using Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku-band precipitation radar, to assess their effectiveness and regional variability. A successful retrieval and climatology are those that correspond tightly to radar reflectivity and give minimal appearance of regional biases, especially with latitude. Satellite platforms offer consistent observations, even in remote, data-sparse, and oceanic regions that ground-based networks exclude. There are, however, potential disconnects between the processes identified aloft by the satellite and the resultant weather at the ground, leading to uncertainties in the retrievals that may propagate into satellite-based climatologies, particularly in the Tropics, where there are abundant strong - but not necessarily hailing - storms that are strongly represented in the current satellite climatologies. There are ongoing efforts to assess and mitigate the contributing factors to these uncertainties, chiefly among them the effects of non-uniform beam filling in the passive-microwave footprint, and the relationships between the size distributions of hailstones aloft and the dynamic processes and environments with which they interact throughout their trajectories.

Sarah D Bang↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spaceborne Remote Sensing of Hail: Retrievals, Climatologies, and Challenges Going Forward

In addition to the myriad threats that severe hailstorms pose to society, infrastructure and agriculture, severe hail is difficult to measure in situ, and surface-based hail reporting and detection methods are inconsistent and subject to geographical or societal biases. This motivates the use of spaceborne remote-sensing platforms to retrieve hail and construct climatologies in the most globally consistent way. Passive-microwave algorithms leverage the sensitivity of spaceborne passive-microwave radiometers to scattering by hail, particularly in the channels from 10 to 89 GHz. These retrievals are used to construct global climatologies of severe hail. The Bang and Cecil (2019) retrievals has been applied to several different spaceborne sensors: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensors and used to construct [near] global climatologies of severe hail. This retrieval, and others, have been tested using Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku-band precipitation radar, to assess their effectiveness and regional variability. A successful retrieval and climatology are those that correspond tightly to radar reflectivity and give minimal appearance of regional biases, especially with latitude. Satellite platforms offer consistent observations, even in remote, data-sparse, and oceanic regions that ground-based networks exclude. There are, however, potential disconnects between the processes identified aloft by the satellite and the resultant weather at the ground, leading to uncertainties in the retrievals that may propagate into satellite-based climatologies, particularly in the Tropics, where there are abundant strong - but not necessarily hailing - storms that are strongly represented in the current satellite climatologies. There are ongoing efforts to assess and mitigate the contributing factors to these uncertainties, chiefly among them the effects of non-uniform beam filling in the passive-microwave footprint, and the relationships between the size distributions of hailstones aloft and the dynamic processes and environments with which they interact throughout their trajectories.

Sarah D Bang↗
DOE OSTI2024

A mechanistic interpretation of Nelson curves for PVP failures under high temperature hydrogen attack

As an empirically established design criterion, Nelson curves that relate the service temperature and the allowable hydrogen partial pressure have been developed and utilized for more than sixty years in pressure vessels and piping (PVP) safety design. Despite a relatively clear thermodynamic understanding of the high-temperature-hydrogen-attack (HTHA) problem, the detailed fracture process on the microstructural length scales, however, remains elusive, and a quantitative assessment of the PVP lifetime under HTHA from the available creep fracture dataset is still not possible. This work develops a microstructure-informed and micromechanics-based model by incorporating a synergy between hydrogen transport and intergranular-cavity-based fracture process. Based on the available creep lifetime data of C-0.5Mo steels, we are able to calibrate material constitutive parameters, and then conduct nonlinear finite element simulations that reveal a real-time stress-induced hydrogen diffusional transport along grain boundaries, coupled with a microstructure-explicit failure process, from which Nelson curves can be computed. Such failure analyses allow us to delineate two distinct regimes on the Nelson curves, i.e., dislocation-creep-controlled or grain boundary diffusion-assisted cavity growth. More importantly, we found that a small change of the pipe thickness and applied stresses can significantly shift these lifetime curves. However, these two parameters are usually not provided in Nelson curves, thus limiting their usage in material selection and safety design. In conclusion, this discrepancy can clearly be mitigated by extensive parametric studies from our micromechanical modeling/simulation framework.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cost of Deconstruction Depots for Diversified, Waste-Based Lignocellulosic Sugars Using Distillable Solvents

Transitioning to a bioeconomy that makes use of low-emission and waste feedstocks requires greater flexibility to accommodate seasonal variations and mitigate long-term storage challenges, such as material loss and fire risk. To achieve this goal, biomass deconstruction technologies must efficiently handle diverse feedstocks. Here, we assess the cost of using butylaminea distillable solventto deconstruct 22 different biomass feedstocks: 7 herbaceous, 9 woody, 4 food processing residues, and 2 blends. Lignocellulosic sugar production costs, based on current empirical data, range from $1.3 to 6.1/kg, suggesting that substantial improvements are required to compete with conventional sugars. The high solvent loading (850 g/kg of whole slurry) is a process bottleneck. Lowering the solvent loading to 59 g/kg of whole slurry, demonstrated in an L-scale reactor using poplar biomass, reduces the minimum sugar selling price by 33%. Solvent loading and recovery, solid loading, sugar yield, enzyme use, and delivered biomass cost all play key roles in reaching sugar production costs of $0.45-0.79/kg. Strategic feedstock blending to maximize carbohydrate content, process optimization to improve conversion efficiency, and the selection of low-cost feedstocks are important to advancing feedstock-flexible biorefineries.

TEA↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radiation Effects on the Performance of Advanced Sulfur Monochloride Chlorination Processes

Advanced sulfur chloride-based chlorination technologies are being developed to enable efficient recycling of aluminum and zirconium-based materials used in the nuclear industry. However, the impacts of ionizing radiation on the performance of these sulfur chloride compounds are not well established, despite this being critical knowledge for assessing their feasibility and longevity under envisioned process conditions. Here, in the present article, we report on the effects of cobalt-60 gamma irradiation (≤ 5 MGy) on the aluminum alloy 6061 (AA6061-T6) chlorination yield in sulfur monochloride (S 2 Cl 2 ). Our findings indicate that, compared to nonirradiated solvent, radiation-induced changes in the chemical composition of S 2 Cl 2 —identified using Raman spectroscopy—afford an additional, dose-dependent exothermic process prior to the chlorination reaction’s typical thermodynamic behavior. We attribute this new process to reactions involving aluminum species (metal, oxide, or [oxy]hydroxides) and sulfur dichloride (SCl 2 ), an S 2 Cl 2 radiolysis product that accumulates with absorbed gamma dose, but is absent following an AA6061-T6 chlorination study. Despite the exothermicity of this new process, the overall yield of chlorination decreased with increasing preirradiation dose. Consequently, the chemical reactivity, specificity (aluminum metal vs aluminum passivation and corrosion layer constituents), and byproducts of SCl 2 must be more thoroughly evaluated to support the continued development of advanced S 2 Cl 2 chlorination technologies.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

VIPER Lunar Rover Agile Mission Systems

Agile development methods, which have gone from outlier to mainstream in software development, are poised to expand into all aspects of space mission development. Modern software development operates on a principle of continuous deployment, where progress is verified not with conventional metrics, but with a continuous build, available to key stakeholders, enabling direct examination of the state of the code base, and assessment of progress through demonstration of capability. Delivery times are measured in weeks, not months. Stakeholders are part of the process on an ongoing basis. The cost of change is comparatively low and requirements, which often are not precisely defined at the start of a project, may be iteratively refined in a series of agile development cycles. Agile methods are compatible with traditional system engineering methods and may be tailored to the space operations environment. The low cost of change and iterative development cycles of agile enable requirements to be defined as outcomes and constraints, with design details to be refined during the development cycle. We are now at a point where agile methods may be extended beyond software, to Mission Systems, including the Mission Operations System and the Ground Data System. For NASA’s VIPER Lunar Rover Mission, scheduled to land at a lunar pole in late 2023, we are developing the Mission System using agile methods. As in agile software, where the measure of progress is working code, in agile mission system development, the measure of capability is what we can demonstrate. Demonstrations over presentations. We demonstrate mission system capability using simulations. The concept of operations, from commanding, to driving the rover, to how we downlink images for evaluation for a near-real time command cycle, will be tested and proven in simulation, years before we begin the traditional simulation cycle for training. “Say it then simulate it.” We develop and refine our designs using simulations, with an emphasis on new components of the system that are not well known early. For example, the required duration of a mission planning cycle for a lunar surface asset such as VIPER, that operates twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week, with continuous communications and a unique set of constraints based on the physics of the lunar poles and the line of site to Earth, is a unique problem in mission planning that is unlikely to be solved in a series of meetings. A small number of requirements specifying the outcomes may serve as the jumping off point to an agile development cycle, with demonstration in simulations. We have already demonstrated this process with simulations of rover driver decision time. VIPER is driven using near-real time command and control to waypoints. The driver decision time between waypoints is a fundamental enabling unit of productivity to accomplish the mission timeline. We have validated driver decision time in simulations of rover driving at the lunar South Pole, using the prototype mission tools for driving, command and control. The capability to develop and refine designs using simulations as part of agile Mission System development cycle changes the nature of team interactions, creating a focus on doing, rather than analyzing and documenting. Waterfall development cycles were, in part, a product of the significant cost of change in the early days of spaceflight. When the cost of change is high, it is vital to get your requirements right at the outset, because the system will be built to those specifications, and, when change is expensive, you better get it right early. However, modern technology has greatly lowered the cost of change, enabling iterative, rapid development cycles, in which key operations concepts may be tested and refined during development. Extending agile development to the Mission System for VIPER is a significant step in moving agile development methods for space operations beyond software, to the Mission System.

Agile↗
NASA NTRS2005

Range Process Simulation Tool

Range Process Simulation Tool (RPST) is a computer program that assists managers in rapidly predicting and quantitatively assessing the operational effects of proposed technological additions to, and/or upgrades of, complex facilities and engineering systems such as the Eastern Test Range. Originally designed for application to space transportation systems, RPST is also suitable for assessing effects of proposed changes in industrial facilities and large organizations. RPST follows a model-based approach that includes finite-capacity schedule analysis and discrete-event process simulation. A component-based, scalable, open architecture makes RPST easily and rapidly tailorable for diverse applications. Specific RPST functions include: (1) definition of analysis objectives and performance metrics; (2) selection of process templates from a processtemplate library; (3) configuration of process models for detailed simulation and schedule analysis; (4) design of operations- analysis experiments; (5) schedule and simulation-based process analysis; and (6) optimization of performance by use of genetic algorithms and simulated annealing. The main benefits afforded by RPST are provision of information that can be used to reduce costs of operation and maintenance, and the capability for affordable, accurate, and reliable prediction and exploration of the consequences of many alternative proposed decisions.

Phillips, Dave↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗
NASA NTRS2005

Hardware in-the-Loop Demonstration of Real-Time Orbit Determination in High Earth Orbits

This paper presents results from a study conducted at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) to assess the real-time orbit determination accuracy of GPS-based navigation in a number of different high Earth orbital regimes. Measurements collected from a GPS receiver (connected to a GPS radio frequency (RF) signal simulator) were processed in a navigation filter in real-time, and resulting errors in the estimated states were assessed. For the most challenging orbit simulated, a 12 hour Molniya orbit with an apogee of approximately 39,000 km, mean total position and velocity errors were approximately 7 meters and 3 mm/s respectively. The study also makes direct comparisons between the results from the above hardware in-the-loop tests and results obtained by processing GPS measurements generated from software simulations. Care was taken to use the same models and assumptions in the generation of both the real-time and software simulated measurements, in order that the real-time data could be used to help validate the assumptions and models used in the software simulations. The study makes use of the unique capabilities of the Formation Flying Test Bed at GSFC, which provides a capability to interface with different GPS receivers and to produce real-time, filtered orbit solutions even when less than four satellites are visible. The result is a powerful tool for assessing onboard navigation performance in a wide range of orbital regimes, and a test-bed for developing software and procedures for use in real spacecraft applications.

Moreau, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evidence-based indicator approach to guide preliminary environmental impact assessments of hydropower development

Global expansion of hydropower resources has increased in recent years to meet growing energy demands and fill worldwide gaps in electricity supply. However, hydropower induces significant environmental impacts on river ecosystems - impacts that are addressed through environmental impact assessment (EIA) processes. The need for effective EIA processes is increasing as environmental regulations are either stressed in developing countries undertaking rapid expansion of hydropower capacity or time- and resource-intensive in developed countries. Part of the challenge in implementing EIAs lies in reaching a consensus among stakeholders regarding the most important environmental factors as the focus of impact studies. To help address this gap, we developed a weight-of-evidence approach (and toolkit) as a preliminary and coarse assessment of the most relevant impacts of hydropower on primary components of the river ecosystem, as identified using river function indicators. Through a science-based questionnaire and predictive model, users identify which environmental indicators may be impacted during hydropower development as well as those indicators that have the highest levels of uncertainty and require further investigation. Furthermore, an assessment tool visualizes inter-dependent indicator relationships, which help formulate hypotheses about causal relationships explored through environmental studies. We apply these tools to four existing hydropower projects and one hypothetical new hydropower project of varying sizes and environmental contexts. We observed consistencies between the output of our tools and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission licensing process (inclusive of EIAs) but also important differences arising from holistic scientific evaluations (our toolkit) versus regulatory policies. The tools presented herein are aimed at increasing the efficiency of the EIA processes that engender environmental studies without loss of rigor or transparency of rationale necessary for understanding, considering, and mitigating the environmental consequences of hydropower.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Opportunities for iron and steel industrial wastewater treatment and reuse in the United States

Concerns around water security in the United States have heightened the interest in industrial water treatment and reuse to improve water efficiency and operational reliability. Alongside nationwide efforts to expand industrial capacity, primary manufacturing sectors are adopting more resource-efficient technologies. This transition is expected to shift industrial water consumption patterns, driving the need for improved treatment and reuse practices. This study investigates opportunities for water use, treatment, and reuse in the iron and steel sector through a review of academic and industry literature and interviews with industry representatives. It identifies key challenges in water and wastewater management and outlines the conditions under which innovative treatment technologies could be deployed. Based on these insights, the study presents a practical water management action plan. Furthermore, it assesses water quality targets across different process operations, evaluates existing treatment technologies, and highlights challenges and opportunities for improvement relative to future performance expectations. Although water is often perceived as a low-cost commodity, industry feedback suggests that improvements in water use and treatment efficiency are typically prioritized only when they also reduce energy use, carbon emissions, or costs. This study advocates for a direct two-way partnership between industry and research audiences to bring their attention toward sustainable industrial water use, treatment, and reuse.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

“Which Projections Do I Use?” Strategies for Climate Model Ensemble Subset Selection Based on Regional Stakeholder Needs

Climate model (or earth system model) projections are increasingly used for climate adaptation planning and impact assessments. As part of this process, many end‐users evaluate a subset of downscaled climate projections without being aware of the implications of downscaling methodology for statistics or event outcomes. Approaches for determining a subset of global climate models to use often focus on values from the raw models, rather than from their downscaled counterparts, in other words assuming that the statistical distribution of the multi‐model ensemble does not change post downscaling. This study demonstrates that a downscaled ensemble will typically retain the change distribution as a raw ensemble, but individual models can differ dramatically post‐downscaling. We recommend that subset‐selection methods account for this possibility and that decision‐relevant downscaled climate projections provide proper descriptions of fitness‐for‐purpose and essential caveats, so that non‐specialists can interpret the results with an appropriate level of confidence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inferring topological transitions in pattern-forming processes with self-supervised learning

Abstract The identification of transitions in pattern-forming processes are critical to understand and fabricate microstructurally precise materials in many application domains. While supervised methods can be useful to identify transition regimes, they need labels, which require prior knowledge of order parameters or relevant microstructures describing these transitions. Instead, we develop a self-supervised, neural-network-based approach that does not require predefined labels about microstructure classes to predict process parameters from observed microstructures. We show that assessing the difficulty of solving this inverse problem can be used to uncover microstructural transitions. We demonstrate our approach by automatically discovering microstructural transitions in two distinct pattern-forming processes: the spinodal decomposition of a two-phase mixture and the formation of binary-alloy microstructures during physical vapor deposition of thin films. This approach opens a path forward for discovering unseen or hard-to-discern transitions and ultimately controlling complex pattern-forming processes.

Abram, Marcin↗