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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Joint Topology Identification and State Estimation in Unobservable Distribution Grids

Many distribution system operations (e.g., state estimation, control, fault detection/localization) rely on the assumption that the underlying topology is accurately defined. In general, topology identification is a challenging problem in distribution systems as these systems are unobservable with a very limited number of available measurements. In this paper, we tackle this problem by designing a compressive sensing framework that jointly estimates the systems states and network topology via an integrated mixed integer nonlinear program (MINLP) formulation. Here, two reformulations of the original MINLP problems are investigated. Firstly, in order to remove the nonlinearity in the MINLP formulation, a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem that employs auxiliary variables is derived. Furthermore, to achieve a faster solution, convex relaxation of the original formulation is derived. Finally, using a Markovian model for topology changes, prior information about system topology is used to improve topology identification particularly when a limited amount of measurements is available. Simulation results on IEEE 37-bus test feeder and IEEE 123-bus test feeder illustrate the efficiency and scalability of the proposed approaches from both state estimation and topology identification point of view (even with 30% of available data).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Destructive PIE and Safety Testing of Six AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 2 Compacts

This study evaluates fission product retention and particle failure mechanisms in AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 2 uranium carbide and uranium oxide (UCO) tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel under high-temperature gas reactor accident-relevant conditions using high-temperature safety tests and destructive post-irradiation examination. Three Capsule 2 compacts were held isothermally at 1600°C for approximately 300 hours and one compact at 1800°C for approximately 300 hours; two additional compacts were examined in the as-irradiated state. Post-test deconsolidation–leach–burn–leach (DLBL) quantified nuclide inventories in matrix and particles. Individual particles were surveyed for radioisotope inventories, and microanalytical approaches resolved microstructural evolution and fission product distributions within the coating layers. At 1600°C, no krypton was detected above the minimum detectable limit, and cesium releases were far below a single particle equivalent, indicating the absence of full TRISO failure or SiC failures. Silver releases were limited and primarily reflected depleted post-irradiation inventories, consistent with prior compact-level exams indicating substantial in-pile 110m Ag loss. At 1800°C, cumulative 134 Cs release of approximately 2.5 particle equivalents and delayed 85 Kr totaling approximately 0.53 particle equivalents were consistent with one full TRISO failure and two SiC failures. Europium and strontium releases were roughly one order of magnitude higher than at 1600°C and comparable to AGR-1/AGR-2 high-temperature tests, with sustained late-hold rates indicating diffusion through intact coatings coupled with matrix depletion. Overall, AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 2 UCO fuel demonstrated fission product retention during safety testing consistent with prior AGR campaigns, while distinctive in-pile 110m Ag depletion and measurable 1600°C europium loss motivate targeted follow-on studies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

DTS data from SGP TBS

Distributed temperature-sensing data collected using a Silixa-XT DTS and 50/125 MM fiber. Data are calibrated using two water baths at the surface and an iMet aloft at the end of the fiber and tether. The data are then assigned an altitude for the TBS flight. Data collected prior to Febuary 11, 2020 were collected at the SGP Central Facility (CF). Data from 2/11/20 were collected with a Sensornet Oryx DTS at the E9 site, not at the CF. Data from May 2021 were collected with a Sensornet Oryx at the CF, and with a Silixa XT at the CF. Data from July 2021 were collected at the SGP CF, EF9, and EF36 with a Silixa XT. Data from October 2021 were collected at the SGP EF36 with a Silixa XT. Data from February 2022 were collected at the CF with a Silixa XT.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tornadoes in Southeast South America: Mesoscale to Planetary-Scale Environments

Abstract A multiscale analysis of the environment supporting tornadoes in southeast South America (SESA) was conducted based on a self-constructed database of 74 reports. Composites of environmental and convective parameters from ERA5 were generated relative to tornado events. The distribution of the reported tornadoes maximizes over the Argentine plains, while events are rare close to the Andes and south of Sierras de Córdoba. Events are relatively common in all seasons except in winter. Proximity environment evolution shows enhanced instability, deep-layer vertical wind shear, storm-relative helicity, reduced convective inhibition, and a lowered lifting condensation level before or during the development of tornadic storms in SESA. No consistent signal in low-level wind shear is seen during tornado occurrence. However, a curved hodograph with counterclockwise rotation is present. The Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) is also maximized prior to tornadogenesis, most strongly associated with enhanced CAPE. Differences in the convective environment between tornadoes in SESA and the U.S. Great Plains are discussed. On the synoptic scale, tornado events are associated with a strong anomalous trough crossing the southern Andes that triggers lee cyclogenesis, subsequently enhancing the South American low-level jet (SALLJ) that increases moisture advection to support deep convection. This synoptic trough also enhances vertical shear that, along with enhanced instability, sustains organized convection capable of producing tornadic storms. At planetary scales, the tornadic environment is modulated by Rossby wave trains that appear to be forced by convection near northern Australia. Madden–Julian oscillation phase 3 preferentially occurs 1–2 weeks ahead of tornado occurrence. Significance Statement The main goal of this study is to describe what atmospheric conditions (from local to global scales) are present prior to and during tornadic storms impacting southeast South America (SESA). Increasing potential for deep convection, wind shear, and potential for rotating updrafts, as well as reducing convective inhibition and cloud-base height, are predominant a few hours before and during the events in connection to low-level northerly winds enhancing moisture transport to the region. Remote convective activity near northern Australia appears to influence large-scale atmospheric circulation that subsequently triggers convective storms supporting tornadogenesis 1–2 weeks later in SESA. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for atmospheric processes occurring at different scales to understand and predict tornado occurrences.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

V31 Test Report

The V31 containment vessel was procured by the US Army Recovered Chemical Material Directorate (RCMD) as a third - generation EDS containment vessel. It is the fifth EDS vessel to be fabricated under Code Case 2564 of the 2019 ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, which provides rules for the design of impulsively loaded vessels. The explosive rating for the vessel, based on the code case, is twenty-four (24) pounds TNT - equivalent for up to 1092 detonations. This report documents the results of explosive tests that were performed on the vessel at Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, New Mexico to qualify the vessel for field operations use. There were three design basis configurations for qualification testing. Qualification test (1) consisted of a simulated M55 rocket motor and warhead assembly of 24lbs of Composition C-4 (30 lb TNT equivalent). This test was considered the maximum load case, based on modeling and simulation methods performed by Sandia prior to the vessel design phase. Qualification test (2) consisted of a regular, right circular cylinder, unitary charge, located central to the vessel interior of 19.2 lb of Composition C-4 (24 lb TNT equivalent). Qualification test (3) consisted of a 12-pack of regular, right circular cylinders of 2 lb each, distributed evenly inside the vessel (totaling 19.2 lb of C-4, or 24 lb TNT equivalent). All vessel acceptance criteria were met.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

V31 Test Report

The V31 containment vessel was procured by the US Army Recovered Chemical Materiel Directorate (RCMD) as a third-generation EDS containment vessel. It is the fifth EDS vessel to be fabricated under Code Case 2564 of the 2019 ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, which provides rules for the design of impulsively loaded vessels. The explosive rating for the vessel, based on the code case, is twenty-four (24) pounds TNT-equivalent for up to 1092 detonations. This report documents the results of explosive tests that were performed on the vessel at Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, New Mexico to qualify the vessel for field operations use. There were three design basis configurations for qualification testing. Qualification test (1) consisted of a simulated M55 rocket motor and warhead assembly of 24lbs of Composition C-4 (30 lb TNT equivalent). This test was considered the maximum load case, based on modeling and simulation methods performed by Sandia prior to the vessel design phase. Qualification test (2) consisted of a regular, right circular cylinder, unitary charge, located central to the vessel interior of 19.2 lb of Composition C-4 (24 lb TNT equivalent). Qualification test (3) consisted of a 12-pack of regular, right circular cylinders of 2 lb each, distributed evenly inside the vessel (totaling 19.2 lb of C-4, or 24 lb TNT equivalent). All vessel acceptance criteria were met .

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Gray-Box Modeling for Distribution Systems with Inverter-Based Resources

In this paper, we develop a novel gray-box modeling approach for distribution systems with inverter-based resources (IBRs). The proposed gray-box modeling method aims to improve estimation accuracy by taking advantages of both physics-based (white-box) and data-driven (black-box) modeling approaches. To this end, the gray-box modeling framework is constructed by encoding prior physical knowledge of the system into a whitebox model and then embedding the output variables of the white-box model into the input vector of a black-box model. Especially, the white-box modeling component is constructed alongside the equivalent network model simplified with Kron reduction. Furthermore, case studies demonstrate that our graybox modeling approach effectively improves estimation accuracy compared to purely physics-based or data-driven methods.

Zhang, Junhui↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Potential DAS Array Geometries for the Source Physics Experiment, Phase III

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is a rapidly developing technology that can record acoustic wavefields at high sampling rates and with dense spatial spacing difficult to achieve with seismometers. However, the geophysical community has not fully explored DAS survey parameters to characterize the ideal array design. A better quantitative understanding of DAS array behavior prior to SPE Phase III acquisition can help improve the quality of the data recorded by guiding the DAS array design. Here we use array response functions as well as beamforming and backprojection results from forward modelling calculations to assess the performance of varying DAS array geometries to record regional and local sources. A seven-sided polygon DAS array demonstrated improved capabilities for recording regional sources over segmented linear arrays, with potential improvements in recording and locating local sources. These results help reveal DAS array performance as a function of geometry.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate and Rapid Forecasts for Geologic Carbon Storage via Learning-Based Inversion-Free Prediction

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one approach being studied by the U.S. Department of Energy to help mitigate global warming. The process involves capturing CO 2 emissions from industrial sources and permanently storing them in deep geologic formations (storage reservoirs). However, CCS projects generally target “green field sites,” where there is often little characterization data and therefore large uncertainty about the petrophysical properties and other geologic attributes of the storage reservoir. Consequently, ensemble-based approaches are often used to forecast multiple realizations prior to CO 2 injection to visualize a range of potential outcomes. In addition, monitoring data during injection operations are used to update the pre-injection forecasts and thereby improve agreement between forecasted and observed behavior. Thus, a system for generating accurate, timely forecasts of pressure buildup and CO 2 movement and distribution within the storage reservoir and for updating those forecasts via monitoring measurements becomes crucial. This study proposes a learning-based prediction method that can accurately and rapidly forecast spatial distribution of CO 2 concentration and pressure with uncertainty quantification without relying on traditional inverse modeling. The machine learning techniques include dimension reduction, multivariate data analysis, and Bayesian learning. The outcome is expected to provide CO 2 storage site operators with an effective tool for timely and informative decision making based on limited simulation and monitoring data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of renormalon scheme and perturbative scale choices on determinations of the strong coupling from e + e − event shapes

We study the role of renormalon cancellation schemes and perturbative scale choices in extractions of the strong coupling constant α s ( m Z ) and the leading nonperturbative shift parameter Ω 1 from resummed predictions of the e + e − event shape thrust. We calculate the thrust distribution to N L 3 L ′ resummed accuracy in soft-collinear effective theory (SCET) matched to the fixed-order O ( α s 2 ) prediction, and perform a new high-statistics computation of the O ( α s 3 ) matching in , although we do not include the latter in our final α s fits due to some observed systematics that require further investigation. We are primarily interested in testing the phenomenological impact sourced from varying amongst three renormalon cancellation schemes and two sets of perturbative scale profile choices. We then perform a global fit to available data spanning center-of-mass energies between 35–207 GeV in each scenario. Relevant subsets of our results are consistent with prior SCET-based extractions of α s ( m Z ) , but we are also led to a number of novel observations. Notably, we find that the combined effect of altering the renormalon cancellation scheme and profile parameters can lead to few-percent-level impacts on the extracted values in the α s − Ω 1 plane, indicating a potentially important systematic theory uncertainty that should be accounted for. We also observe that fits performed over windows dominated by dijet events are typically of a higher quality than those that extend into the far tails of the distributions, possibly motivating future fits focused more heavily in this region. Finally, we discuss how different estimates of the three-loop soft matching coefficient c S ˜ 3 can also lead to measurable changes in the fitted { α s , Ω 1 } values. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distribution of Lanthanides, Yttrium, and Scandium in the Pilot-Scale Beneficiation of Fly Ashes Derived from Eastern Kentucky Coals

In this study, Central Appalachian coal-derived fly ashes from two power plants were beneficiated in a pilot-scale facility in order to produce a product with a relatively consistent concentration of rare earth elements (REE). The <200-mesh final fly ash product was produced by removing the carbon- and Fe-rich particles prior to screening at 200 mesh (75 µm). The Plant D fly ash had high concentrations of CaO and SO3, which were diminished through the two months when the ash was being beneficiated, representing a consequence of the heat, humidity, and excessive rainfall in the Kentucky summer. The high CaO and SO3 concentrations through the early runs likely contributed to the lower REE in the <200-mesh products of those runs. Of the non-REE minor elements, Ba, V, Mn, Zn, and As showed the greatest between-run variations within the runs for each plant. The overall REE concentrations proved to be similar, both on a between-run basis for the individual fly ash sources and on a between-plant basis. Variations in fly ash quality will occur in larger-scale operations, so on-going attention to the fly ash quality and the response of the fly ash to beneficiation is necessary. Changes in the Plant D fly ash with time imply that both the freshness of the original ash and the length and conditions of its storage at the site of beneficiation could be factors in the quality and consistency of the processed fly ash.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Acid–Base Stimulation Sequence on Mineral Stability for Tight/Impermeable Unconventional Carbonate-Rich Rocks: A Delaware Basin Case Study

We report mineral precipitation due to reactions with injected fluids during unconventional fracture stimulation is a well-recognized problem. The goal of this study is to evaluate secondary mineral precipitation and permeability attenuation under chemical injection scenarios specific to the Delaware basin. Whole cylindrical cores (2.54 cm diameter and 2.54 cm height) and ground shale (150–250 μm) from the carbonate-rich Bone Spring Formation, Delaware Basin TX (Leonardian), were reacted at 80 °C and 85 bar using a hydraulic fracturing fluid (HFF) recipe and an injection sequence typical of the Delaware Basin. The reacted shales and solutions were analyzed using a variety of laboratory- and synchrotron-based techniques to characterize both the chemical and spatial distributions of secondary mineral precipitation and identify changes in permeability and mineralogy. This carbonate-rich shale (>84% calcite) rapidly neutralized the acidic HFF. Synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence mapping coupled with X-ray absorption spectroscopy (both bulk and micro) showed that most of the iron was in an oxidized form prior to exposure to HFF and that almost all iron(II) became fully oxidized after the reaction. Scanning electron microscopy images of the ground shale samples primarily identified iron(oxyhydr)oxide microcrystals on grain surfaces. A few small isolated iron-rich areas also contained sulfur, suggesting that some pyrite was preserved when isolated within a calcite crystal but that most was oxidized. The rapid neutralization of the acid spearhead in these carbonate-rich samples demonstrates that the acid spearhead is useful for initiating fractures in extremely calcite-rich rocks but does little to enhance rock permeability. This suggests that the impact of the acid spearhead is significantly smaller for carbonate-rich shales compared to clay-rich shales, which has broad implications for acidizing in carbonate-rich shale formations and iron transformations within these shales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial ecology of translocated raccoons

Raccoons (Procyon lotor) are routinely translocated both legally and illegally to mitigate conflicts with humans, which has contributed to the spread of rabies virus across eastern North America. The movement behavior of translocated raccoons has important ramifications for disease transmission yet remains understudied and poorly quantified. To examine the spatial ecology of raccoons following experimental translocation, we performed reciprocal 16 km-distance translocations of 30 raccoons between habitats of high and low raccoon density (bottomland hardwood and upland pine, respectively) across the Savannah River Site (SRS) in Aiken, South Carolina, USA (2018–2019). Translocation influenced patterns of raccoon space use, with translocated animals exhibiting a 13-fold increase in 95% utilization distributions (UDs) post- compared to pre-translocation (mean 95% UD 35.8 ± 36.1 km 2 vs 1.96 ± 1.17 km 2 ). Raccoons originating from upland pine habitats consistently had greater space use and larger nightly movement distances post-translocation compared to raccoons moved from bottomland hardwood habitats, whereas these differences were generally not observed prior to translocation. Estimated home ranges of male raccoons were twice the area as estimated for female raccoons, on average, and this pattern was not affected by translocation. After a transient period lasting on average 36.5 days (SD = 30.0, range = 3.25–92.8), raccoons often resumed pre-experiment movement behavior, with 95% UD sizes not different from those prior to translocation (mean = 2.27 ± 1.63km 2 ). Most animals established new home ranges after translocation, whereas three raccoons moved > 16 km from their release point back to the original capture location. Four animals crossed a 100-m wide river within the SRS post-translocation, but this behavior was not documented among collared raccoons prior to translocation. Large increases in space use combined with the crossing of geographic barriers such as rivers may lead to elevated contact rates with conspecifics, which can heighten disease transmission risks following translocation. These results provide additional insights regarding the potential impacts of raccoon translocation towards population level risks of rabies outbreaks and underscore the need to discourage mesocarnivore translocations to prevent further spread of wildlife rabies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

One Galaxy Sample to Rule Them All: Halo Occupation Distribution Modeling of DES Year 3 Source Galaxies

Abstract For the joint analysis of second-order weak-lensing and galaxy clustering statistics, so-called 3 × 2 analyses, the selection and characterization of optimal galaxy samples is a major area of research. One promising choice is to use the same galaxy sample as lenses and sources, which reduces the systematics parameter space that describes the uncertainties related to galaxy samples. Such a “lens-equal-source” analysis significantly improves the self-calibration of photo- z systematics, leading to improved cosmological constraints. With the aim of enabling a lens-equal-source analysis on small scales, we investigate the halo–galaxy connection of DES Year 3 source galaxies. We develop a technique to construct mock source galaxy populations by matching COSMOS/UltraVISTA photometry to U niverse M achine galaxies. These mocks predict a source halo occupation distribution (HOD) that exhibits significant redshift evolution, nontrivial central incompleteness, and galaxy assembly bias. We produce multiple realizations of mock source galaxies drawn from the U niverse M achine posterior, with added uncertainties in the measured Dark Energy Survey photometry and galaxy shapes. We fit a modified HOD formalism to these realizations to produce priors on the galaxy–halo connection for cosmological analyses. We additionally train an emulator that predicts this HOD to ∼2% accuracy from redshift z = 0.1−1.3 that models the dependence of this HOD on (1) observational uncertainties in galaxy size and photometry and (2) uncertainties in the U niverse M achine predictions.

Salcedo, Andrés N. (ORCID:000000031420527X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temporal Forecasting of Distributed Temperature Sensing in a Thermal Hydraulic System With Machine Learning and Statistical Models

We benchmark performance of long-short term memory (LSTM) network machine learning model and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) statistical model in temporal forecasting of distributed temperature sensing (DTS). Data in this study consists of fluid temperature transient measured with two co-located Rayleigh scattering fiber optic sensors (FOS) in a forced convection mixing zone of a thermal tee. We treat each gauge of a FOS as an independent temperature sensor. We first study prediction of DTS time series using Vanilla LSTM and ARIMA models trained on prior history of the same FOS that is used for testing. The results yield maximum absolute percentage error (MaxAPE) and root mean squared percentage error (RMSPE) of 1.58% and 0.06% for ARIMA, and 3.14% and 0.44% for LSTM, respectively. Next, we investigate zero-shot forecasting (ZSF) with LSTM and ARIMA trained on history of the co-located FOS only, which is advantageous when limited training data is available. The ZSF MaxAPE and RMSPE values for ARIMA are comparable to those of the Vanilla use case, while the error values for LSTM increase. We show that in ZSF, performance of LSTM network can be improved by training on most correlated gauges between the two FOS, which are identified by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient. The improved ZSF MaxAPE and RMSPE for LSTM are 4.4% and 0.33%, respectively. Performance of ZSF LSTM can be further enhanced through transfer learning (TL), where LSTM is re-trained on a subset of the FOS that is the target of forecasting. We show that LSTM pre-trained on correlated dataset and re-trained on 30% of testing target dataset achieves MaxAPE and RMSPE values of 2.32% and 0.28%, respectively.

ARIMA↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spectral Energy Distributions for 258 Local Volume Galaxies

We present model spectral energy distribution (SED) fits to ultraviolet/optical/infrared observations for the 258 nearby galaxies in the Local Volume Legacy survey, a sample dominated by lower-luminosity dwarf irregular systems. The data for each galaxy include up to 26 spatially-integrated broadband and narrowband fluxes from the Galaxy Evolution Explorer, Spitzer Space Telescope, and Infrared Astronomical Satellite space-based platforms, and from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, Two Micron All Sky Survey, and other ground-based efforts. The CIGALE SED fitting package is employed using a delayed star-formation history with an optional late burst or quenching episode to constrain 11 different free parameters that characterize the properties of each galaxy's stellar and dust emission, with the overriding constraint that the ultraviolet/optical emission absorbed by interstellar dust grains is emitted in equal energy portions at infrared wavelengths. The main results are: (i) 94% of the SED fits yield reduced χ 2 values less than 3; (ii) the modeled stellar masses agree with those derived from 3.6 μm-based measures with a scatter of 0.07 dex; (iii) for a typical galaxy in the sample the SED-derived star-formation rate averaged over the past 100 Myr is about 88% of the value derived from standard hybrid indicators on similar timescales; and (iv) there is a statistically significant inverse relation between the stellar mass fraction appearing in the late burst and the total stellar mass. These results build upon prior SED modeling efforts in the local volume and lay the groundwork for future studies of more distant low-metallicity galaxies with JWST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Particle dynamics of nanoplastics suspended in water with soil microparticles: insights from small angle neutron scattering (SANS) and ultra-SANS

Small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) and ultra-SANS (USANS) were employed to understand the aggregation behavior and observe the size reduction for nanoplastics (NPs) formed from a biodegradable mulch film, and microparticles of vermiculite (V), an artificial soil, suspended in water in the presence of low convective shear (ex situ stirring) prior to measurements. Neutron contrast matching was employed to minimize the signal of V (by 100-fold) and thereby isolate the signal due to NPs in the neutron beam, as the contrast match point (CMP) for V (67 vol% deuteration of water) differed from that of NPs by more than 20%. The original NPs' size distribution was bimodal: <200 nm and 500–1200 nm, referred to as small and large NPs, i.e., SNPs and LNPs, respectively. In the absence of V, SNPs formed homoaggregates at higher concentrations that decreased with stirring time, while the size of LNPs remained unchanged. The presence of V at 2-fold lower concentration than NPs did not change the size of SNPs but reduced the size of LNPs by nearly 2-fold as stirring time increased. Because the size of SNPs and LNPs did not differ substantially between CMP and 100% D 2 O solvents, it is evident that SNPs and LNPs are mainly composed of NPs and not V. In conclusion, the results suggest that LNPs are susceptible to size reduction through collisions with soil microparticles via convection, yielding SNPs near soil–water interfaces within vadose zones.

Nanoplastics↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Data-Driven Nonparametric Approach for Probabilistic Load-Margin Assessment Considering Wind Power Penetration

A modern power system is characterized by an increasing penetration of wind power, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties must be quantified properly; otherwise, the system security may be threatened. Facing this challenge, here we propose a cost-effective, data-driven approach to assessing a power system's load margin probabilistically. Using actual wind data, a kernel density estimator is applied to infer the nonparametric wind speed distributions, which are further merged into the framework of a vine copula. The latter enables us to simulate complex multivariate and highly dependent model inputs with a variety of bivariate copulae that precisely represent the tail dependence in the correlated samples. Furthermore, to reduce the prohibitive computational time of traditional Monte-Carlo simulations that process a large amount of samples, we propose to use a nonparametric, Gaussian-process-emulator-based reduced-order model to replace the original complicated continuation power-flow model through a Bayesian-learning framework. To accelerate the convergence rate of this Bayesian algorithm, a truncated polynomial chaos surrogate, which serves as a highly efficient, parametric Bayesian prior, is developed. This emulator allows us to execute the time-consuming continuation power-flow solver at the sampled values with a negligible computational cost. Results of simulations that are performed on several test systems reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method in the probabilistic load-margin assessment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗