Results for “Prediction Accuracy” — Page 23

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Prediction of VFR Vs IFR Traffic Behavior to Support Uncrewed Aircraft Flight Operations at Regional Airports

Uncrewed Aircraft flight operations at a regional airport will be affected by the uncertainty in the Visual Flight Rules traffic around. This paper analyzes Visual Flight Rules traffic behavior, compares it with Instrument Flight Rules traffic and develops traffic prediction methods to support uncrewed aircraft flight operations. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules and Instrument Flight Rules was analyzed from one month of historical track data around Fort Worth Alliance airport as a representative regional airport. The traffic behavior was visualized as occupancy maps generated at different altitudes. The Instrument Flight Rules traffic was concentrated in fewer regions of the airspace along structured routes where the risk of interacting with one or more flights reached close to fifty percent in some areas. Visual Flight Rules traffic was spread over more regions, mostly segregated from the Instrument Flight Rules regions, and the risk of interaction was lower reaching up to twenty-five percent on average over the month in some regions. The interaction risk was predicted using predictive occupancy maps over multiple time horizons and conditioned on time and partial observation of traffic in the vicinity. The month-to-month predictability of Visual Flight Rules risk was lower than that of the Instrument Flight Rules traffic, consistently over all the conditions analyzed. However, the prediction and its accuracy were demonstrated to be sensitive to the conditions used. The predictive models generated can be used to support both strategic planning and in-flight decision-making by uncrewed aircraft during flight operations while maintaining an acceptable risk of interacting with other traffic.

VFR↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Prediction of VFR Vs IFR Traffic Behavior to Support Uncrewed Aircraft Flight Operations at Regional Airports

Uncrewed Aircraft flight operations at a regional airport will be affected by the uncertainty in the Visual Flight Rules traffic around. This paper analyzes Visual Flight Rules traffic behavior, compares it with Instrument Flight Rules traffic and develops traffic prediction methods to support uncrewed aircraft flight operations. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules and Instrument Flight Rules was analyzed from one month of historical track data around Fort Worth Alliance airport as a representative regional airport. The traffic behavior was visualized as occupancy maps generated at different altitudes. The Instrument Flight Rules traffic was concentrated in fewer regions of the airspace along structured routes where the risk of interacting with one or more flights reached close to fifty percent in some areas. Visual Flight Rules traffic was spread over more regions, mostly segregated from the Instrument Flight Rules regions, and the risk of interaction was lower reaching up to twenty-five percent on average over the month in some regions. The interaction risk was predicted using predictive occupancy maps over multiple time horizons and conditioned on time and partial observation of traffic in the vicinity. The month-to-month predictability of Visual Flight Rules risk was lower than that of the Instrument Flight Rules traffic, consistently over all the conditions analyzed. However, the prediction and its accuracy were demonstrated to be sensitive to the conditions used. The predictive models generated can be used to support both strategic planning and in-flight decision-making by uncrewed aircraft during flight operations while maintaining an acceptable risk of interacting with other traffic.

VFR↗

NASA NTRS1998

Flight Evaluation of Center-TRACON Automation System Trajectory Prediction Process

Two flight experiments (Phase 1 in October 1992 and Phase 2 in September 1994) were conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) trajectory prediction process. The Transport Systems Research Vehicle (TSRV) Boeing 737 based at Langley Research Center flew 57 arrival trajectories that included cruise and descent segments; at the same time, descent clearance advisories from CTAS were followed. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared with the trajectories predicted by the CTAS trajectory synthesis algorithms and airplane Flight Management System (FMS). Trajectory prediction accuracy was evaluated over several levels of cockpit automation that ranged from a conventional cockpit to performance-based FMS vertical navigation (VNAV). Error sources and their magnitudes were identified and measured from the flight data. The major source of error during these tests was found to be the predicted winds aloft used by CTAS. The most significant effect related to flight guidance was the cross-track and turn-overshoot errors associated with conventional VOR guidance. FMS lateral navigation (LNAV) guidance significantly reduced both the cross-track and turn-overshoot error. Pilot procedures and VNAV guidance were found to significantly reduce the vertical profile errors associated with atmospheric and airplane performance model errors.

Williams, David H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Accuracy Assessment of Two Gps Fidelity Prediction Services in Urban Terrain

Low altitude flight in urban areas is susceptible to degraded GNSS-based navigation system performance due to terrain interference with radio signals from orbital positioning satellites. Predictive navigation performance fidelity tools are needed a) in preflight planning to assist in the creation of safe flight paths and b) in-flight to provide contingency management agents with the navigation risk of proximal flight corridors. Two navigation fidelity prediction services are validated by comparison with over 6000 readings from GNSS sensors collected along a five-mile path through urban areas of Corpus Christi, Texas, on three dates in 2022. Predictions are based on satellite line of sight through 3D terrain data collected in 2018. Each service predicts a set of navigation fidelity metrics over a user-specified time period. One metric estimated by both is the number of visible satellites. A direct comparison of the number of predicted visible satellites with the number sensed by the receiver is used to validate the prediction services. Results show an exact match in the number of predicted satellites for 60% of the measurements, and a match within +/- 4 satellites for 95% of the measurements. As expected, agreement improves away from vertical blocking terrain. Most cases of mismatch are due a lower predicted count than measured (false negatives), and can be accounted for by receiver pickup of stray signals caused by multipath propagation. About 10% of mismatches are false positives and are mostly accounted for by foliage effects. The two services predict visibility of the same set of satellites 80% of the time, differ by two or less satellites 95% of the time, and can compute predictions for one hour of observations in one minute or less. Validation is analyzed statistically and in detailed case studies of selected observation times. The prediction services validated in this study run fast enough for preflight safety planning. The more stringent challenge of inflight navigation fidelity prediction for contingency management requires both a speedup of the current level of modeling and equally fast stray signal modeling.

Andrew Moore↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Accuracy Assessment of Two GPS Fidelity Prediction Services in Urban Terrain

Low altitude flight in urban areas is susceptible to degraded GNSS-based navigation system performance due to terrain interference with radio signals from orbital positioning satellites. Predictive navigation performance fidelity tools are needed a) in preflight planning to assist in the creation of safe flight paths and b) in-flight to provide contingency management agents with the navigation risk of proximal flight corridors. Two navigation fidelity prediction services are validated by comparison with over 6000 readings from GNSS sensors collected along a five-mile path through urban areas of Corpus Christi, Texas, on three dates in 2022. Predictions are based on satellite line of sight through 3D terrain data collected in 2018. Each service predicts a set of navigation fidelity metrics over a user-specified time period. One metric estimated by both is the number of visible satellites. A direct comparison of the number of predicted visible satellites with the number sensed by the receiver is used to validate the prediction services. Results show an exact match in the number of predicted satellites for 60% of the measurements, and a match within +/- 4 satellites for 95% of the measurements. As expected, agreement improves away from vertical blocking terrain. Most cases of mismatch are due a lower predicted count than measured (false negatives), and can be accounted for by receiver pickup of stray signals caused by multipath propagation. About 10% of mismatches are false positives and are mostly accounted for by foliage effects. The two services predict visibility of the same set of satellites 80% of the time, differ by two or less satellites 95% of the time, and can compute predictions for one hour of observations in one minute or less. Validation is analyzed statistically and in detailed case studies of selected observation times. The prediction services validated in this study run fast enough for preflight safety planning. The more stringent challenge of inflight navigation fidelity prediction for contingency management requires both a speedup of the current level of modeling and equally fast stray signal modeling.

Andrew J. Moore↗

NASA NTRS2007

Incorporation of Half-Cycle Theory Into Ko Aging Theory for Aerostructural Flight-Life Predictions

The half-cycle crack growth theory was incorporated into the Ko closed-form aging theory to improve accuracy in the predictions of operational flight life of failure-critical aerostructural components. A new crack growth computer program was written for reading the maximum and minimum loads of each half-cycle from the random loading spectra for crack growth calculations and generation of in-flight crack growth curves. The unified theories were then applied to calculate the number of flights (operational life) permitted for B-52B pylon hooks and Pegasus adapter pylon hooks to carry the Hyper-X launching vehicle that air launches the X-43 Hyper-X research vehicle. A crack growth curve for each hook was generated for visual observation of the crack growth behavior during the entire air-launching or captive flight. It was found that taxiing and the takeoff run induced a major portion of the total crack growth per flight. The operational life theory presented can be applied to estimate the service life of any failure-critical structural components.

Ko, William L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Studies of aerothermal loads generated in regions of shock/shock interaction in hypersonic flow

Experimental studies were conducted to examine the aerothermal characteristics of shock/shock/boundary layer interaction regions generated by single and multiple incident shocks. The presented experimental studies were conducted over a Mach number range from 6 to 19 for a range of Reynolds numbers to obtain both laminar and turbulent interaction regions. Detailed heat transfer and pressure measurements were made for a range of interaction types and incident shock strengths over a transverse cylinder, with emphasis on the 3 and 4 type interaction regions. The measurements were compared with the simple Edney, Keyes, and Hains models for a range of interaction configurations and freestream conditions. The complex flowfields and aerothermal loads generated by multiple-shock impingement, while not generating as large peak loads, provide important test cases for code prediction. The detailed heat transfer and pressure measurements proved a good basis for evaluating the accuracy of simple prediction methods and detailed numerical solutions for laminar and transitional regions or shock/shock interactions.

Holden, Michael S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Team Functioning in Long Term Space Missions Using Acoustic and Linguistic Measures

Maintaining optimal team functioning is critical for long-duration space exploration missions, yet traditional monitoring methods, such as self-reports and wearable sensors, often impose operational burdens or suffer from bias. This paper investigates a non-intrusive speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) framework to predict degradations in team functioning using data from the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Using acoustic features, linguistic descriptors, and semantic embeddings, we evaluate static non-linear and temporal machine learning models to predict both objective (task accuracy) and subjective (self-reported efficacy and cohesion) team functioning outcomes. Results indicate that temporal models outperform static approaches, with prediction of objective task accuracy in Team Interaction Battery (TIB) improving from near chance to 71%. Self-reported outcomes, including team efficacy and cohesion, are predicted more reliably than task performance, achieving balanced accuracies of up to 85.56% and 78.12%, respectively, and are found to be most strongly associated with acoustic features. In a second interdependent task, the MMSEV–EVA, accuracies of up to 78% are achieved using temporal models with acoustic features. Furthermore, incorporating just 1–2 days of team-specific historical data systematically improved performance, and acoustic markers from informal pre-task interactions provided modest predictive gains. Finally, while automated preprocessing yielded viable accuracy, humancorrected data provided moderate performance gains, though transcription error rates did not significantly correlate with model performance. These findings highlight the potential of speech as a passive, high-fidelity monitoring tool for autonomous habitats.

Temporal modeling↗

NASA NTRS2014

Fine Particulate Matter Predictions Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) Retrievals

To date, spatial-temporal patterns of particulate matter (PM) within urban areas have primarily been examined using models. On the other hand, satellites extend spatial coverage but their spatial resolution is too coarse. In order to address this issue, here we report on spatial variability in PM levels derived from high 1 km resolution AOD product of Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm developed for MODIS satellite. We apply day-specific calibrations of AOD data to predict PM(sub 2.5) concentrations within the New England area of the United States. To improve the accuracy of our model, land use and meteorological variables were incorporated. We used inverse probability weighting (IPW) to account for nonrandom missingness of AOD and nested regions within days to capture spatial variation. With this approach we can control for the inherent day-to-day variability in the AOD-PM(sub 2.5) relationship, which depends on time-varying parameters such as particle optical properties, vertical and diurnal concentration profiles and ground surface reflectance among others. Out-of-sample "ten-fold" cross-validation was used to quantify the accuracy of model predictions. Our results show that the model-predicted PM(sub 2.5) mass concentrations are highly correlated with the actual observations, with out-of- sample R(sub 2) of 0.89. Furthermore, our study shows that the model captures the pollution levels along highways and many urban locations thereby extending our ability to investigate the spatial patterns of urban air quality, such as examining exposures in areas with high traffic. Our results also show high accuracy within the cities of Boston and New Haven thereby indicating that MAIAC data can be used to examine intra-urban exposure contrasts in PM(sub 2.5) levels.

aerosol optical depth↗

NASA NTRS1998

On Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism

A statistical description of Earth's broad scale, core-source magnetic field has been developed and tested. The description features an expected, or mean, spatial magnetic power spectrum that is neither "flat" nor "while" at any depth, but is akin to spectra advanced by Stevenson and McLeod. This multipole spectrum describes the magnetic energy range; it is not steep enough for Gubbins' magnetic dissipation range. Natural variations of core multipole powers about their mean values are to be expected over geologic time and are described via trial probability distribution functions that neither require nor prohibit magnetic isotropy. The description is thus applicable to core-source dipole and low degree non-dipole fields despite axial dipole anisotropy. The description is combined with main field models of modem satellite and surface geomagnetic measurements to make testable predictions of: (1) the radius of Earth's core, (2) mean paleomagnetic field intensity, and (3) the mean rates and durations of both dipole power excursions and durable axial dipole reversals. The predicted core radius is 0.7% above the 3480 km seismologic value. The predicted root mean square paleointensity (35.6 mu T) and mean Virtual Axial Dipole Moment (about 6.2 lx 1022 Am(exp 2)) are within the range of various mean paleointensity estimates. The predicted mean rate of dipole power excursions, as defined by an absolute dipole moment <20% of the 1980 value, is 9.04/Myr and 14% less than obtained by analysis of a 4 Myr paleointensity record. The predicted mean rate of durable axial dipole reversals (2.26/Myr) is 2.3% more than established by the polarity time-scale for the past 84 Myr. The predicted mean duration of axial dipole reversals (5533 yr) is indistinguishable from an observational value. The accuracy of these predictions demonstrates the power and utility of the description, which is thought to merit further development and testing. It is suggested that strong stable stratification of Earth's uppermost outer core leads to a geologically long interval of no dipole reversals and a very nearly axisymmetric field outside the core. Statistical descriptions of other planetary magnetic fields are outlined.

Voorhies, Coerte V.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Preliminary Design Optimization For A Supersonic Turbine For Rocket Propulsion

In this study, we present a method for optimizing, at the preliminary design level, a supersonic turbine for rocket propulsion system application. Single-, two- and three-stage turbines are considered with the number of design variables increasing from 6 to 11 then to 15, in accordance with the number of stages. Due to its global nature and flexibility in handling different types of information, the response surface methodology (RSM) is applied in the present study. A major goal of the present Optimization effort is to balance the desire of maximizing aerodynamic performance and minimizing weight. To ascertain required predictive capability of the RSM, a two-level domain refinement approach has been adopted. The accuracy of the predicted optimal design points based on this strategy is shown to he satisfactory. Our investigation indicates that the efficiency rises quickly from single stage to 2 stages but that the increase is much less pronounced with 3 stages. A 1-stage turbine performs poorly under the engine balance boundary condition. A portion of fluid kinetic energy is lost at the turbine discharge of the 1-stage design due to high stage pressure ratio and high-energy content, mostly hydrogen, of the working fluid. Regarding the optimization technique, issues related to the design of experiments (DOE) has also been investigated. It is demonstrated that the criteria for selecting the data base exhibit significant impact on the efficiency and effectiveness of the construction of the response surface.

Papila, Nilay↗

NASA NTRS2019

Generation of a Reduced-Order Model of an Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle Using Indicial Response Functions

Within the NATO STO AVT-251 Task Group, a generic Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV) planform was redesigned based on requirements derived from parts of the flight envelope of the defined mission. Because of the lambda-shape planform and associated flow phenomena including shocks and vortices, the aerodynamic design process relies heavily on high-fidelity predictions from computational fluid dynamics (CFD). These simulations enable accurate flight dynamics predictions, allowing for the identification of any potential performance issues early in the design process. Potentially, a complete flight dynamics model can be derived from CFD calculations provided that the underlying reduced order model (ROM) captures the underlying physics contained within the CFD results. This work investigates the creation of a nonlinear ROM using indicial response functions. The response functions are obtained using a grid motion approach that separates the effects of angle of attack and pitch rate. This approach is demonstrated using three different CFD codes from various organizations: ENSOLV at Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre, USM3D at NASA Langley Research Center, and Kestrel at the United States Air Force Academy. ROM predictions were generated for a manoeuver resembling a low-speed pull-up. The predictions are found to be sensitive to the quality of the steady-state solutions from which step-response calculations were started, as well as the convergence of the step responses themselves. Nevertheless, the indicial response method is shown to provide aerodynamic predictions with acceptable accuracy including transient effects, and as such is a promising method for computationally efficient flight dynamics predictions.

Michel P.C. van Rooij↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Heat Transfer Coefficient from Velocity Distribution in Boundary Layer

This paper describes a method of evaluating heat transfer coefficient from a velocity distribution in the boundary layer. The power law velocity profile and universal velocity distribution in a smooth pipe have been used to evaluate the wall shear stress, and the heat transfer coefficient was evaluated from the wall shear stress using the Chilton-Colburn analogy. The predicted pressure drop was compared with the pressure drop computed by the Colebrook equation, and the predicted heat transfer coefficient was compared with the heat transfer coefficient calculated by the Dittus-Boelter equation. The accuracy of pressure drop prediction was within 1%, and the accuracy of heat transfer coefficient prediction was within 8%. This method has the potential to use a Navier-Stokes based CFD solution to evaluate the heat transfer coefficient in nodal or network flow codes.

Heat Transfer Coefficient↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Heat Transfer Coefficient from Velocity Distribution in Boundary Layer

This paper describes a method of evaluating heat transfer coefficient from a velocity distribution in the boundary layer. The power law velocity profile and universal velocity distribution in a smooth pipe have been used to evaluate the wall shear stress, and the heat transfer coefficient was evaluated from the wall shear stress using the Chilton-Colburn analogy. The predicted pressure drop was compared with the pressure drop computed by the Colebrook equation, and the predicted heat transfer coefficient was compared with the heat transfer coefficient calculated by the Dittus-Boelter equation. The accuracy of pressure drop prediction was within 1%, and the accuracy of heat transfer coefficient prediction was within 8%. This method has the potential to use a Navier-Stokes based CFD solution to evaluate the heat transfer coefficient in nodal or network flow codes.

Heat Transfer Coefficient↗

NASA NTRS1979

Solar Activities Predictions: Long-Term Solar Activity

The need for long term solar activity predictions is addressed. The spatial organization of solar activity is described including applications for predictions, and ancient evidence for solar variability. Methods of predicting sunspot numbers are discussed. The inherent accuracy of the methods varies considerably, but a typical error bar 20%. The accuracy of sunspot cycle predictions is considered along with long term predictions of great solar events.

P S Mcintosh↗

NASA NTRS2008

Empirical Accuracies of U.S. Space Surveillance Network Reentry Predictions

The U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) issues formal satellite reentry predictions for objects which have the potential for generating debris which could pose a hazard to people or property on Earth. These prognostications, known as Tracking and Impact Prediction (TIP) messages, are nominally distributed at daily intervals beginning four days prior to the anticipated reentry and several times during the final 24 hours in orbit. The accuracy of these messages depends on the nature of the satellite s orbit, the characteristics of the space vehicle, solar activity, and many other factors. Despite the many influences on the time and the location of reentry, a useful assessment of the accuracies of TIP messages can be derived and compared with the official accuracies included with each TIP message. This paper summarizes the results of a study of numerous uncontrolled reentries of spacecraft and rocket bodies from nearly circular orbits over a span of several years. Insights are provided into the empirical accuracies and utility of SSN TIP messages.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Visibility of lunar surface features - Apollo 14 orbital observations and lunar landing.

Description of an in-flight visibility test conducted during the Apollo 14 mission for the purpose of validating and extending the mathematical visibility models used previously in the course of the Apollo program to examine the constraints on descent operations imposed by lunar visibility limitations. Following a background review of the effects on mission planning of the visibility limitations due to downsun lunar surface detail 'washout' and a discussion of the visibility prediction techniques previously used for studying lunar visibility problems, the visibility test rationale and procedures are defined and the test results presented. The results appear to confirm the validity of the visibility prediction techniques employed in lunar visibility problem studies. These results provide also a basis for improving the accuracy of the prediction techniques by appropriate modifications.

Ziedman, K.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Flight effects on exhaust noise for turbojet and turbofan engines: Comparison of experimental data with prediction

It was demonstrated that static and in flight jet engine exhaust noise can be predicted with reasonable accuracy when the multiple source nature of the problem is taken into account. Jet mixing noise was predicted from the interim prediction method. Provisional methods of estimating internally generated noise and shock noise flight effects were used, based partly on existing prediction methods and partly on recent reported engine data.

Stone, J. R.↗