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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of globalscenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combiningshared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes asdescribed by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was createdby the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China'sfuture anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed tointegrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamicprojection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The modelcontains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projectionmodule and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rateprojection module provides the standardized and unified future energyscenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy systemmodel. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global ChangeAssessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply inChina under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. Theemission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, theMulti-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China andaccurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologiesand control measures under different environmental policies. We developedtechnology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g.coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportationsectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleetturnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annualbasis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios(SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and threepollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced controlpolicy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emissionscenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's futureemissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We foundthat, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollutioncontrol policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major airpollutants (i.e. SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China willbe reduced by 34%–66% in 2030 and 58%–87% in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important rolein continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissionswill remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without activeactions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from theCMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates ofemission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased importance of aerosol–cloud interactions for surface PM 2.5 pollution relative to aerosol–radiation interactions in China with the anthropogenic emission reductions

Surface fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution can be enhanced by feedback processes induced by aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). Many previous studies have reported enhanced PM 2.5 concentrations induced by ARIs and ACIs for episodic events in China. However, few studies have examined the changes in the ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancements over a long period, though the anthropogenic emissions have changed substantially in the last decade. In this study, we quantify the ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 changes for 2013–2021 under different meteorology and emission scenarios using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), and we investigate the driving factors behind the changes. Our results show that, in January 2013, when China suffered from the worst PM 2.5 pollution, the PM 2.5 enhancement induced by ARIs in eastern China (5.59 µg m −3 ) was larger than that induced by ACIs (3.96 µg m −3 ). However, the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement showed a significantly smaller decrease ratio (51 %) than the ARI-induced enhancement (75 %) for 2013–2021, making ACIs more important for enhancing PM 2.5 concentrations in January 2021. Our analyses suggest that the anthropogenic emission reductions played a key role in this shift. Owing to only anthropogenic emission reductions, the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement decreased by 43 % in January, which was lower than the decrease ratio of the ARI-induced enhancement (57 %). The relative change in ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement in July was similar to the pattern observed in January, caused by anthropogenic emission reductions. The primary reason for this phenomenon is that the decrease in ambient PM 2.5 for 2013–2021 caused a disproportionately small decrease in the liquid water path (LWP) and an increase in the cloud effective radius (Re) under the condition of high PM 2.5 concentrations. Therefore, the surface solar radiation attenuation (and, hence, the boundary layer height reduction) caused by ACIs decreased slower than that caused by ARIs. Moreover, the lower decrease ratio of the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement was dominated by the lower decrease ratio of ACI-induced secondary PM 2.5 component enhancement, which was additionally caused by the smaller decrease ratio of the air temperature reduction and the relative humidity (RH) increase. Our findings indicate that, with the decrease in ambient PM 2.5 , the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement inevitably becomes more important. This needs to be considered in the formulation of control policies to meet the national PM 2.5 air quality standard.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Design and application of a mobile ground-based observatory for continuous measurements of atmospheric trace gas and criteria pollutant species

Ground-based measurements of atmospheric trace gas species and criteria pollutants are essential for understanding emissions dynamics across space and time. Gas composition in the lower 50 m of the atmosphere has the greatest direct impacts on human health as well as ecosystem processes; hence data at this level are necessary for addressing carbon-cycle- and public-health-related questions. However, such surface data are generally associated with stationary measurement towers, where spatial representation is limited due to the high cost of establishing and maintaining an extensive network of measurement stations. We describe here a compact mobile laboratory equipped to provide high-precision, high-frequency, continuous, on-road synchronous measurements of CO 2 , CO, CH 4 , H 2 O, NO x , O 3 , aerosol, meteorological, and geospatial position data. The mobile laboratory has been deployed across the western USA. In addition to describing the vehicle and its capacity, we present data that illustrate the use of the laboratory as a powerful tool for investigating the spatial structure of urban trace gas emissions and criteria pollutants at spatial scales ranging from single streets to whole ecosystem and regional scales. We assess the magnitude of known point sources of CH 4 and also identify fugitive urban CH 4 emissions. We illustrate how such a mobile laboratory can be used to better understand emissions dynamics and quantify emissions ratios associated with trace gas emissions from wildfire incidents. Lastly, we discuss additional mobile laboratory applications in health and urban metabolism.

Bush, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS1970

Visible region remote spectroscopy of polluted water

The use of an airborne spectrometer for measuring the amount of pollutants under the surface of a body of water is discussed. Difficulties created by high water absorption, atmospheric absorption, molecular scattering by water, and atmospheric scattering for the range of wavelengths from 0.2 to 20.0 microns are described. It was determined that some form of quantitative measurement of subsurface pollutants is possible using an airborne spectrometer.

White, P. G.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Methods for reducing pollutant emissions from jet aircraft

Pollutant emissions from jet aircraft and combustion research aimed at reducing these emissions are defined. The problem of smoke formation and results achieved in smoke reduction from commercial combustors are discussed. Expermental results of parametric tests performed on both conventional and experimental combustors over a range of combustor-inlet conditions are presented. Combustor design techniques for reducing pollutant emissions are discussed. Improved fuel atomization resulting from the use of air-assist fuel nozzles has brought about significant reductions in hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions at idle. Diffuser tests have shown that the combustor-inlet airflow profile can be controlled through the use of diffuser-wall bleed and that it may thus be possible to reduce emissions by controlling combustor airflow distribution. Emissions of nitric oxide from a shortlength annular swirl-can combustor were significantly lower than those from a conventional combustor operating at similar conditions.

Butze, H. F.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Lidar applications to pollution studies.

This paper discusses the application of lidar (laser radar) to the measurement of air pollution. Lidar techniques and instrumentation utilizing elastic, Raman, and fluorescence scattering are discussed. Data showing measurements of the mixing of particulate pollutants in the atmosphere are presented. These data include: simultaneous two-wavelength results, isopleths showing the temporal dynamics of particulate mixing, measurements of the top of the earth's mixing layer, and measurements in a valley with restricted circulation and mixing. All measurements are compared with simultaneous radiosonde and/or aircraft-mounted temperature probe support. In addition, a second generation lidar system presently under development is described.

Mccormick, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Raman scattering studies of pollutant systems.

Results and techniques for laboratory measurements of Raman scattering cross sections and depolarization ratios of atmospheric gases as a function of the incident photon energy are discussed. Referred to N2, the cross section of H2O changes by a factor of 2 as the incident photon energy is changed by 5%. Less striking results are obtained for SO2, NO and other atmospheric gases. Tentative results are given for spectral features of scattering from polluted air-water interfaces. Raman lidar is assessed as a potentially useful aid in remote sensing of atmospheric and water-borne pollution distributions at least in near-source concentrations.

Schwiesow, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Pollution detection by digital correlation of multispectral, stero-image pairs.

Remote detection of air pollution circulation patterns is proposed to eventually predict the accumulation of hazardous surface concentrations in time for preventive emission control operations. Earth observations from space platforms will contain information on the height, mean velocity and lateral mixing scales of inversion layers and pollution plumes. Although this information is often not visible on photographs, it could conceivably be retrieved through a digital cross-correlation of multispectral stereo image pairs. Laboratory and field test results are used to illustrate the detection of non-visual inversion layers, the reduction of dominant signal interference, and the spectroscopic identification of combustion products.

Krause, F. R.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Comparison of laser methods for the remote detection of atmospheric pollutants.

Three methods of remote air pollution detection - Raman backscattering, resonance backscattering, and resonance absorption - are discussed and compared. Theoretical expressions are derived for the minimum detectable pollutant concentration, and in each case the depth resolution and the problems of interference, pump depletion, and background noise are discussed. A brief discussion of possible laser sources is included, numerical examples of the detectabilities based on present technology are given. The atmospheric transparency limits the useful range to a few kilometers for the Raman and resonance backscattering schemes. F or the resonance absorption technique the useful range can be as great as 50 kilometers.

Kildal, H.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Methods for reducing pollutant emissions from jet aircraft.

The purpose of this paper is to define the problem of pollutant emissions from jet aircraft and to review NASA-Lewis combustion research aimed at reducing these emissions. The problem of smoke formation and results achieved in smoke reduction from commercial combustors are discussed. Experimental results of parametric tests performed on both conventional and experimental combustors over a range of combustor-inlet conditions are presented. Combustor design techniques for reducing pollutant emissions are discussed. Improved fuel atomization resulting from the use of air-assist fuel nozzles has brought about significant reductions in hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions at idle. Diffuser tests have shown that the combustor-inlet airflow profile can be controlled through the use of diffuser-wall bleed and that it may thus be possible to reduce emissions by controlling combustor airflow distribution. Emissions of nitric oxide from a shortlength annular swirl-can combustor were significantly lower than those from a conventional combustor operating at similar conditions.

Butze, H. F.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Oil pollution signatures by remote sensing.

Study of the possibility of developing an effective remote sensing system for oil pollution monitoring which would be capable of detecting oil films on water, mapping the areal extent of oil slicks, measuring slick thickness, and identifying the oil types. In the spectral regions considered (ultraviolet, visible, infrared, microwave, and radar), the signatures were sufficiently unique when compared to the background so that it was possible to detect and map oil slicks. Both microwave and radar techniques are capable of operating in adverse weather. Fluorescence techniques show promise in identifying oil types. A multispectral system will be required to detect oil, map its distribution, estimate film thickness, and characterize the oil pollutant.

Catoe, C. E.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Pollution measurements of a swirl-can combustor

Pollutant levels of oxides of nitrogen, unburned hydrocarbons, and carbon monoxide were measured for an experimental, annular, swirl can combustor. The combustor was 42 inches in diameter, incorporated 120 modules, and was specifically designed for elevated exit temperature performance. Test conditions included combustor inlet temperatures of 600, 900 and 1050 F, inlet pressures of 5 to 6 atmospheres, reference velocities of 69 to 120 feet per second and fuel-air ratios of 0.014 to 0.0695. Tests were also conducted at a simulated engine idle condition. Results demonstrated that swirl can combustors produce oxides of nitrogen levels substantially lower than conventional combustor designs. These reductions are attributed to reduced dwell times resulting from short combustor length, quick mixing of combustion gases with diluent air, and to uniform fuel distributions resulting from the swirl can approach. Radial staging of fuel at idle conditions resulted in increases in combustion efficiencies and corresponding reductions in pollutant levels.

Niedzwiecki, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Use of ERTS imagery in air pollution and marine biology studies, tasks 1 through 3

There are no author-identified significant results in this report. The general suitability of ERTS imagery in detecting ground originated air pollution has proved to be excellent. The quality and resolution exceeded expectations and has permitted in some instances location of point sources to within a thousand feet. Suitable techniques have not yet been developed for determining or measuring area and line sources of air pollution. A major problem has been cloud cover that has persisted over the area of primary interest, the Chesapeake Bay. Work has been completed on mounting the shipboard transmissometer which will be used for investigations to relate the chlorophyll and suspended sediment content in the waters of the Lower Chesapeake Bay to ERTS-1 imagery. Water sampling, plankton analysis, and preparations for sea collection of water truth along the eastern continental shelf of the U.S. have been completed for use in comparisons with ERTS-1 data.

Copeland, G. E.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Evaluation of noise pollution level based upon community exposure and response data

The results and procedures are reported from an evaluation of noise pollution level as a predictor of annoyance, based on aircraft noise exposure and community response data. The measures of noise exposure presented include composite noise rating, noise exposure forecast, noise and number index. A proposed measure as a universal noise exposure measure for noise pollution level (L sub NP) is discussed.

Edmiston, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Pollution monitoring in Lake Champlain using ERTS-1 imagery

The author has identified the following significant results. Band 4 imagery of April 7 and 25 show contrasting pollution effects due to seasonal and discharge variations. The pollution plume emanating from the International Paper Co. mill just north of Fort Ticonderoga was first detected on October 10 ERTS-1 imagery and now has been documented during spring high lake level conditions. The plume was observed extending further to the north and east than under low water conditions of October 10. This northward extension reflects a stronger northward current flow expected in the turbid southern leg of Lake Champlain. The extensive plume of April 25 represents full plant operation while the April 5 scene shows some plume traces directly over the submerged diffuser, discharge pipe representing minimal discharge during weekend plant operation. The ERTS-1 documentation will be used in developing a model of plume behavior under varying environmental conditions and will hopefully serve to assist in a major resource decision pending at U.S. Supreme Court level.

Lind, A. O.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Polluted and turbid water masses in Osaka Bay and its vicinity revealed with ERTS-A imageries

ERTS-1 took very valuable MSS imageries of Osaka Bay and its vicinity on October 24, 1972. In the MSS-4 and MSS-5 imageries a complex grey pattern of water masses can be seen. Though some of grey colored patterns seen in black and white prints of the MSS-4 and MSS-5 imageries are easily identified from their shapes as cloud covers or polluted water masses characterized by their color tone in longer wavelengths in the visible region, any correct distribution pattern of polluted or turbid water masses can be hardly detected separately from thin cloud covers in a quick look analysis. In the present investigation, a simple photographic technique was applied using the fact that reflected sun light from cloud including smog and inclined water surfaces of wave have a certain component in the near infrared region, that MSS-7, whereas the light scattered from fine materials suspended in the sea water has nearly no component sensible in MSS-4 and MSS-5 channels.

Watanabe, K.↗