Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Periodic systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis: Preprint

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technology for clean, inexpensive, and sustainable electricity generation. Along with numerous technical roadmaps to improve system cost, performance and reliability, the PV industry should also plan to handle large volumes of silicon panel waste, which is initially estimated to be ~13 million metric tons (MT) by 2050 in the U.S. alone. Understanding the magnitude of material needs and how material flows throughout the PV panel life cycle could respond to design, operational and different end-of-life (EOL) circular pathways will help transition into a circular, resource-conserving economy. Herein, we introduce a dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) framework based on electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (e.g., solar glass and aluminum frames) throughout the life cycles of utility-scale silicon PV systems in the U.S. in the period 2000-2100. We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacial, frameless). We found that float glass and aluminum in PV installations would likely reach 100 million MT and 12 million MT by 2100, respectively, in the baseline scenario. The most influential parameters for PV installation and subsequent waste reduction are found to be module lifetime, module efficiency, annual degradation, and material reduction. Module recycling and component remanufacturing were found to be the most effective material circularity strategies for waste minimization. Panel reuse has negligible savings on waste under current module efficiencies compared to replacements with newer generations with higher efficiency. Ongoing trends to produce larger power frameless modules could save 10 million MT of glass and ~9 million MT of aluminum. Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize waste.

circular economy↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solving the duck curve in a smart grid environment using a non-cooperative game theory and dynamic pricing profiles

With the intermittency that comes with electricity generation from renewables, utilizing dynamic pricing will encourage the demand-side to respond in a smart way that would minimize the electricity costs and flatten the net electricity demand curve. Determining the optimal dynamic pricing profile that would leverage distributed storage to flatten the curve is a novel idea that needs to be studied. Moreover, the economic feasibility of utilizing distributed electrical energy storage is still not given in the literature. Therefore, in this paper, a novel way of solving a citywide dynamic model using a bilevel programming algorithm is introduced. The problem is developed as a novel non-cooperative Stackelberg game that utilizes air-conditioning systems and electrical storage through the end-users to determine the optimal dynamic pricing profile. The results show that the combined effect of utilizing demand-side air-conditioning systems and distributed storage together can flatten the curve while employing the optimal dynamic pricing profile. An economic study is performed to determine the economic feasibility of 20 different cases with different battery designs and the level of solar penetration. Three metrics were used to evaluate the economic performance of each case: the levelized cost of storage, the levelized cost of energy, and the simple payback period. Most cases had levelized cost of storage values lower than 0.457 $/kWh, which is the lower bound available in the literature. Seven out of 16 cases have a simple payback period shorter than the lifetime of the system (25 years). The case with a 100 MW PV power plant and a battery storage of size 597 MWh, was found to be the most promising case with a simple payback period of 12.71 years for the photovoltaic plant and 19.86 years for the demand-side investments.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Autonomous Fueling System for Heavy-Duty Fuel Cell Electric Trucks

The motivation for this project stemmed from the challenges associated with rapidly refueling heavy-duty hydrogen fuel cell electric trucks (FCETs). Current manual refueling processes for fast refueling involve large, heavy equipment (e.g., hoses three times heavier than standard) and pose ergonomic risks and potential for equipment damage. The goal was to develop and test an autonomous fueling system to improve ergonomics, enhance safety, increase equipment durability through design improvements, and potentially speed up the fueling process. This project aimed to add to the understanding of autonomous systems in the context of heavy-duty hydrogen refueling, evaluating the technical effectiveness of potential concepts. A successfully developed system would benefit the public by facilitating the adoption of zero-emission heavy-duty transport, reducing reliance on manual labor for a physically demanding task, and potentially improving the safety and efficiency of hydrogen refueling infrastructure. The major accomplishment during the project's active period was the completion of the system-level architecture task. This involved establishing a detailed list of system requirements covering interfaces, environmental conditions, regulatory compliance, industry standards, safety, security, performance capabilities, and optional features. Five key use cases for the autonomous system were also identified. However, due to internal restructuring at Nikola, the necessary resources could not be allocated to continue the project. Consequently, Nikola opted to discontinue the project. The award was mutually terminated by Nikola and the DOE.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ice Nucleating Particles (INP) Raw Data

The ice nucleation spectrometer (INS) is an offline analytical measurement system used to process filter samples for freezing temperature spectra of immersion-mode ice-nucleating particle (INP) number concentrations. It is almost identical to the Colorado State University (CSU) ice spectrometer design. Filter samples are collected at ARM facilities routinely and during intensive operational periods, and on the ARM tethered balloon system operated by Sandia National Laboratories, then processed on the INS at CSU. This filter log contains the detailed metadata at all ARM sites where INP filter sample collection has occurred or is currently ongoing. Metadata include start and end times, vacuum line pressures and temperatures, and flow rates; total accumulated flow through each filter; and notes on collection issues or weather conditions. Users can also keep up to date with the status of filter and data processing, even before data are available on ARM's Data Discovery. Users can contact INP mentors Jessie Creamean or Thomas Hill with any questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stripline Block Sensor System

he Long Baseline Neutrino Facility requires remote handling of the stripline block, the component responsible for providing current to the focusing horns. There are many constraints due to the surroundings the modules reside in such as small clearances as well as a highly radioactive environment. Existing systems have already been implemented within the process; however, these systems offer limited information leaving much risk during operations. This calls for a sensor system that is sufficiently accurate, complies with project constraints, and provides valuable information throughout the replacement period. A proposed solution utilizes a three dimensional indoor positioning system to provide the operator with real-time positioning and rotational information. Future work would consist of finding vendors capable of providing technology that fits our constraints, proof of concept tests, implementation planning, as well as trails within the target hall itself. A three dimensional indoor positioning system would provide an incredibly diverse tool capable of being utilized in a variety of situations.

Espinoza, David↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tycho: Realistically Simulating Exoplanets within Stellar Clusters. I. Improving the Monte Carlo Approach

To fully understand the diverse population of exoplanets, we must study their early lives within open clusters, the birthplace of most stars with masses >0.5M {sub ⊙} (including those currently in the field). Indeed, when we observe planets within clustered environments, we notice highly eccentric and odd systems that suggest the importance of dynamical pathways created by interactions with additional bodies (as in the case of HD 285507b). However, it has proven difficult to investigate these effects, as many current numerical solvers for the multi-scale N-body problem are simplified and limited in scope. To remedy this, we aim to create a physically complete computational solution to explore the role of stellar close encounters and interplanetary interactions in producing the observed exoplanet populations for both open cluster stars and field stars. We present a new code, Tycho, which employs a variety of different computational techniques, including multiple N-body integration methods, close encounter handling, modified Monte Carlo scattering experiments, and a variety of empirically informed initial conditions. We discuss the methodology in detail, and its implementation within the AMUSE software framework. Approximately 1% of our systems are promptly disrupted by star-star encounters contributing to the rogue planets occurrence rate. Additionally, we find that close encounters which that perturb long-period planets lead to 38.3% of solar-system-like planetary systems becoming long-term unstable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coordinated operation of electricity and natural gas systems from day-ahead to real-time markets

Power systems worldwide are becoming more reliant on energy from natural gas, wind, and solar, posing possible reliability and coordination challenges from the tighter coupling of these infrastructure systems. This paper proposes a framework for the market-based coordination of electricity and natural gas system operations. The proposed framework includes a power system model that accounts for flexibility in the commitment of power plants with short start-up and shut-down times, coupled with a dynamic gas model that simulates when gas cannot be delivered to generators. The capabilities of the framework are illustrated using real-world electric power and gas systems, including scenarios around wind and solar penetrations and the analysis of time-variant, “shaped flow” gas nominations. Our results indicate that coordination between power and gas systems improves total gas delivery and reduces out-of-merit order dispatch in the electricity system, and that shaped flows may reduce unserved gas in systems with high penetrations of wind and solar. Coordination can have mixed effects on carbon-dioxide emissions, with emissions increasing with coordination for current systems during high load weeks but decreasing for systems with high renewable penetrations, particularly during periods of high variability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydraulic Response to Thermal Stimulation Efforts at Raft River Based on Stepped Rate Injection Testing

The injection well stimulation project at the Raft River geothermal field tests the effect of long-term cold water injection and high pressure injection on well injectivity, improvements to which could reduce operating costs. The primary data for analysis and interpretation of the injection test are step-rate flow tests run before each new phase of the injection. These tests were analyzed using a combination of standard pump-test analytical solution methods and methods developed expressly for the observed conditions. The stepped rate injection tests, combined with long-term flow and pressure response data suggest that the well is located within a fractured formation of low transmissivity but high storativity. These calculated parameters appeared to increase with pressure during the first injection test and the higher values were reproduced during the second stepped rate test. Calculated transmissivity and storativity are on the order of 4E-5 m cm 2 and 1E-4 m Pa -1 , respectively. The apparent pressure dependence of fitted hydraulic parameters may reflect near-well fracture compliance that increased the effective radius of the wellbore during the first test. While the type curve fit analysis also suggests that the reservoir behaves as a uniformly fractured reservoir with a radial flow regime, the hydraulic parameters indicate that condition may exist only a very limited distance (<10 m) from the well. Longer-term pressure response suggests that flow in the system effectively reaches steady state in a period of less than a day, which may reflect pressure stabilization resulting from pressure-dependent permeability or a region of much higher permeability located with a few meters of the well. The transmissivity estimates obtained from this analysis, converted to approximate fracture density and aperture, provide useful constraints on the distance to which the thermal front may migrate from the well during the cold water injection phase of the stimulation project. We estimate that the cooling front will migrate less than a tenth of a kilometer over an approximately one-year injection period. Here, the effects of that cooling, however, may be substantial, because increases in permeability have maximum effect nearest the well.

cold water injection↗
DOE OSTI2022

2.2.5.401 - Ocean Observing Prize

The Powering the Blue Economy: Ocean Observing Prize is a $2.4M contest that challenges innovators to develop solutions that integrate marine renewable energy with ocean observation platforms to revolutionize our ability to monitor, manage, and understand the ocean. Competitors are challenged to design, build, and test novel, wave-powered, self-charging autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) systems that could be suitable for a 6-month deployment in the Atlantic Ocean to monitor hurricane formation. Through engagement with the end user ocean observing community, the team identified challenges in a lack of data on storm intensity, endangering coastal communities. This challenge could be addressed by collecting data before, during, and after a hurricane develops and strengthens at sea. Amassing this data, however, requires an ocean observing system that can be deployed at sea for long periods, waiting for approaching storms. To help solve this problem, competitors are working to integrate wave energy capture with AUV systems to collect this data, helping to better protect coastal communities from oncoming storms. Solutions developed through this prize aim to enable long-term collection of data before, during, and after a hurricane that will help better forecast storm intensity. The prize mechanism provides an environment to accelerate technology development for innovators and helps to improve awareness of marine energy and its ability to provide power to blue economy applications.

coastal communities↗
DOE OSTI2020

Orbital Motion, Variability, and Masses in the T Tauri Triple System

We present results from adaptive optics imaging of the T Tauri triple system obtained at the Keck and Gemini Observatories in 2015−2019. We fit the orbital motion of T Tau Sb relative to Sa and model the astrometric motion of their center of mass relative to T Tau N. Using the distance measured by Gaia, we derived dynamical masses of M{sub Sa}=2.05±0.14 M {sub ⊙} and M {sub Sb} = 0.43 ± 0.06 M{sub ⊙}. The precision in the masses is expected to improve with continued observations that map the motion through a complete orbital period; this is particularly important as the system approaches periastron passage in 2023. Based on published properties and recent evolutionary tracks, we estimate a mass of ∼2 M {sub ⊙} for T Tau N, suggesting that T Tau N is similar in mass to T Tau Sa. Narrowband infrared photometry shows that T Tau N remained relatively constant between late 2017 and early 2019 with an average value of K = 5.54 ± 0.07 mag. Using T Tau N to calibrate relative flux measurements since 2015, we found that T Tau Sa varied dramatically between 7.0 and 8.8 mag in the K band over timescales of a few months, while T Tau Sb faded steadily from 8.5 to 11.1 mag in the K band. Over the 27 yr orbital period of the T Tau S binary, both components have shown 3–4 mag of variability in the K band, relative to T Tau N.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Subseasonal Earth System Prediction with CESM2

Abstract Prediction systems to enable Earth system predictability research on the subseasonal time scale have been developed with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2) using two configurations that differ in their atmospheric components. One system uses the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6) with its top near 40 km, referred to as CESM2(CAM6). The other employs the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 (WACCM6) whose top extends to ∼140 km, and it includes fully interactive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry [CESM2(WACCM6)]. Both systems are utilized to carry out subseasonal reforecasts for the 1999–2020 period following the Subseasonal Experiment’s (SubX) protocol. Subseasonal prediction skill from both systems is compared to those of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration CFSv2 and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational models. CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) show very similar subseasonal prediction skill of 2-m temperature, precipitation, the Madden–Julian oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation to its previous version and to the NOAA CFSv2 model. Overall, skill of CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) is a little lower than that of the ECMWF system. In addition to typical output provided by subseasonal prediction systems, CESM2 reforecasts provide comprehensive datasets for predictability research of multiple Earth system components, including three-dimensional output for many variables, and output specific to the mesosphere and lower-thermosphere (MLT) region from CESM2(WACCM6). It is shown that sudden stratosphere warming events, and the associated variability in the MLT, can be predicted ∼10 days in advance. Weekly real-time forecasts and reforecasts with CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) are freely available. Significance Statement We describe here the design and prediction skill of two subseasonal prediction systems based on two configurations of the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2): CESM2 with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 [CESM2(CAM6)] and CESM 2 with Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 [CESM2(WACCM6)] as its atmospheric component. These two systems provide a foundation for community-model based subseasonal prediction research. The CESM2(WACCM6) system provides a novel capability to explore the predictability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere. Both CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) demonstrate subseasonal surface prediction skill comparable to that of the NOAA CFSv2 model, and a little lower than that of the ECMWF forecasting system. CESM2 reforecasts provide a comprehensive dataset for predictability research of multiple aspects of the Earth system, including the whole atmosphere up to 140 km, land, and sea ice. Weekly real-time forecasts, reforecasts, and models are publicly available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Field Study of Grid-connected Heat Pump Water Heaters in the Southeast U.S.: The Next Right Thing

The integration of grid-connected functionality and advanced control algorithms into heat pump water heaters (HPWH) offers the capability to shift load with minimal customer impact. This capability provides a flexible grid resource to utilities, while the increased energy efficiency of HPWHs offers customers a lower electric bill. The combined utility/customer value from grid-connected HPWHs is compelling in the Southeast U.S. where residential electric water heating is prevalent and utility load management is common. This paper presents the results of a HPWH load shifting study conducted in Central Florida using the CTA-2045 standard. Building upon previous research in the Pacific Northwest, this study consisted of approximately 45 occupied homes equipped with HPWHs undergoing load shifting strategies weekly for over a year. Curtailment durations ranged from three to five hours in the morning, and four to five hours in the evening to coincide with high-value periods for utility coincident load for system-wide electric demand reductions. During the morning and afternoon, a one- or two-hour load-up event preceded curtailment. Baseline data were collected across varied Florida weather in which no load shifting events were implemented. Results from traditional load shifting strategies were analyzed across seasons and used to devise unique load shifting approaches to increase renewable energy use during periods of high solar energy generation. Regional impacts are forecasted for large-scale implementation of strategies. Lessons learned and recommendations are also provided for how utilities, manufacturers, and regional planners can maximize load shifting benefits from grid-connected HPWHs.

Heat pump water heaters, residential building, loa↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unified ab initio description of Fröhlich electron-phonon interactions in two-dimensional and three-dimensional materials

Ab initio calculations of electron-phonon interactions including the polar Fröhlich coupling have advanced considerably in recent years. The Fröhlich electron-phonon matrix element is by now well understood in the case of bulk three-dimensional (3D) materials. In the case of two-dimensional (2D) materials, the standard procedure to include Fröhlich coupling is to employ Coulomb truncation, so as to eliminate artificial interactions between periodic images of the 2D layer. While these techniques are well established, the transition of the Fröhlich coupling from three to two dimensions has not been investigated. Furthermore, it remains unclear what error one makes when describing 2D systems using the standard bulk formalism in a periodic supercell geometry. In this work, we generalize previous work on the ab initio Fröhlich electron-phonon matrix element in bulk materials by investigating the electrostatic potential of atomic dipoles in a periodic supercell consisting of a 2D material and a continuum dielectric slab. We obtain a unified expression for the matrix element, which reduces to the existing formulas for three-dimensional and 2D systems when the interlayer separation tends to zero or infinity, respectively. This expression enables an accurate description of the Fröhlich matrix element in 2D systems without resorting to Coulomb truncation. We validate our approach by direct ab initio density-functional perturbation theory calculations for monolayer BN and MoS 2 , and we provide a simple expression for the 2D Fröhlich matrix element that can be used in model Hamiltonian approaches. The formalism outlined in this work may find applications in calculations of polarons, quasiparticle renormalization, transport coefficients, and superconductivity, in 2D and quasi-2D materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

White Dwarf Binaries across the H-R Diagram

We created the APOGEE-GALEX-Gaia catalog to study white dwarf (WD) binaries. This database aims to create a minimally biased sample of WD binary systems identified from a combination of GALEX, Gaia, and APOGEE data to increase the number of WD binaries with orbital parameters and chemical compositions. We identify 3414 sources as WD binary candidates, with nondegenerate companions of spectral types between F and M, including main-sequence stars, main-sequence binaries, subgiants, sub-subgiants, red giants, and red clump stars. Among our findings are (a) a total of 1806 systems having inferred WD radii R < 25 R ⊕ , which constitute a more reliable group of WD binary candidates within the main sample; (b) a difference in the metallicity distribution function between WD binary candidates and the control sample of most luminous giants (M H < -3.0); (c) the existence of a population of sub-subgiants with WD companions; (d) evidence for shorter periods in binaries that contain WDs compared to those that do not, as shown by the cumulative distributions of APOGEE radial velocity shifts; (e) evidence for systemic orbital evolution in a sample of 252 WD binaries with orbital periods, based on differences in the period distribution between systems with red clump, main-sequence binary, and sub-subgiant companions and systems with main-sequence or red giant companions; and (f) evidence for chemical enrichment during common envelope (CE) evolution, shown by lower metallicities in wide WD binary candidates (P > 100 days) compared to post-CE (P < 100 days) WD binary candidates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spins and Heat in Nanoscale Electronic Systems (SHINES) (Final Report)

This project covers the funding period of 08/01/2014-07/31/2020. The project received a no-cost extension for 6 months which ended on 01/31/2021. The overall project is divided into two periods: full funding of $\$3$ million/year with the total of $\$12$ million for the first four years (08/01/2014-07/1/2018); and $\$1.9$ million for the two-year extension (08/01/2018-07/31/2020). During the first four-year period, SHINES supported 14 PIs plus two UCR seed PIs (internally funded). During the 2-year extension, only 7 PIs were involved, and 8 UCR seed PIs were supported using UCR internal funds.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

CIGS Technology Advancement via Fundamental Modeling of Defect/Impurity Interactions (Final Technical Report)

The primary goals of the proposed work were to provide modeling tools (and the associated insight which comes along with model development) for design and optimization of CuIn x Ga 1-x Se 2 (CIGS) and CdSeTe (CST) solar cell manufacturing processes and to establish the foundation for comprehensive end-to-end predictive modeling tools to enable optimization of thin film photovoltaic technology for performance, cost, yield, and reliability. The initial focus of efforts within this project was to develop coupled process/optical/device models for CIGS PV technology and to work with Siva Power to apply that TCAD (technology computer-aided design) system to improve the efficiency and reduce manufacturing costs for CIGS solar cells. Our approach to that end was to generate an extensive database of DFT calculations and to use those calculations via statistical thermodynamics methods and Monte Carlo simulation to develop and characterize models for the behavior of native defects as well as intentional and unintentional impurities, including the redistribution of the primary components of CIGS films. Increased effort went toward coupling those models for defect behavior and composition evolution to the performance of multicrystalline CIGS solar cells via prediction of doping level and recombination lifetime as function of manufacturing process. In the second budget period, the project pivoted to developing a similar system for the CdSeTe system, focused especially on understanding the role of Se/Te alloy concentration. Execution of the project resulted in the successful development of TCAD systems for both CIGS and CdSeTe thin film PV within the Synopsys Sentaurus framework by utilizing the Alagator interface. In the first budget period of the project, we developed quantitative models for the major components of CIGS PV and implemented them within a framework that couples process, optical, and device simulation. From the insights we have gained, we identified novel opportunities for enhancing CIGS solar cell performance and have laid the groundwork to further optimize the layer structure, composition profile, and thermal cycles for substantially improved efficiency and lower manufacturing costs. For the CIGS system, process changes to achieve greater than 1% absolute enhancement in efficiency were identified, but testing of those approaches was stymied by lack of a domestic CIGS manufacturing partner after the closure of Siva Power as well as Miasole. For CdSeTe, a fully capable TCAD system only became ready to apply near the end of the project period, so substantial opportunities remain to apply those models to enhance the leading thin film PV technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Behavior of solitary waves of coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equations subjected to complex external periodic potentials with odd-$\mathcal{PT}$ symmetry

In this work, we discuss the response of both moving and trapped solitary wave solutions of a two-component nonlinear Schrödinger system in 1 + 1 dimensions to an odd-$\mathcal{PT}$ external periodic complex potential. The dynamical behavior of perturbed solitary waves is explored by conducting numerical simulations of the nonlinear system and using a collective coordinate variational approximation. We present case examples corresponding to choices of parameter values and initial conditions involved therein. The results of the collective coordinate approximation are compared against numerical simulations where we observe qualitatively good agreement between the two. Unlike the case for a single-component solitary wave in a complex periodic $\mathcal{PT}$-symmetric potential, the collective coordinate equations do not have a small oscillation regime, and initially the height of the two components changes in opposite directions often causing instability. We find that the dynamic stability criteria we have used in the one-component case are a good indicator for the onset of dynamic instabilities in the present setup.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surface-to-Interior Transport Timescales and Ventilation Patterns in a Time-Dependent Circulation Driven by Sustained Climate Warming

Abstract The effect of climate warming in response to rising atmospheric CO 2 on the ventilation of the ocean remains uncertain. Here we make theoretical advances in elucidating the relationship between ideal age and transit time distribution (TTD) in a time-dependent flow. Subsequently, we develop an offline tracer-transport model to characterize the ventilation patterns and time scales in the time-evolving circulation for the 1850–2300 period as simulated with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESMv1) under a business-as-usual warming scenario. We found that by 2300 2.1% less water originates from the high-latitude deep water formation regions (both hemispheres) compared to 1850. In compensation, there is an increase in the water originating from the subantarctic. We also found that slowing meridional overturning circulation causes a gradual increase in mean age during the 1850–2300 period, with a globally averaged mean-age increase of ∼110 years in 2300. Where and when the water will be re-exposed to the atmosphere depends on the post-2300 circulation. For example, if we assume that the circulation persists in its year-2300 state (scenario 1), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in year 1850 is ∼1140 years. In contrast, if we assume that the circulation abruptly recovers to its year-1850 state (scenario 2), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in 1850 is only ∼740 years. By 2300, these differences become even larger; in scenario 1, the mean interior-to-surface transit time increases by ∼200 years, whereas scenario 2 decreases by ∼80 years. The dependence of interior-to-surface transit time on the future ocean circulation produces an additional unavoidable uncertainty in the long-term durability of marine carbon dioxide removal strategies. Significance Statement The ocean’s circulation, when altered by climate warming, can affect its capacity to absorb heat and CO 2 , which are crucial for the global climate. In our study, we investigated how global warming, caused by rising CO 2 levels, might impact the ocean circulation—the way water moves from deep ocean to the surface and vice versa. We discovered that by 2300, if we continue on our current warming trajectory, the origins of water within the ocean will shift, with less coming from deep, cold zones near the poles and more from subantarctic regions. As a result, deep water will take longer time before it resurfaces than shallow water. How quickly this water travels from deep regions to the surface could change, depending on the state of future ocean circulation. If the circulation remains as predicted in 2300, this journey will take longer. Conversely, if it reverts to the pattern in 1850, the process will be quicker. This variability introduces added uncertainty to strategies aimed at mitigating climate change by storing CO 2 in the ocean. Our work highlights the intricate ways in which climate change can influence our oceans, potentially affecting our plans to mitigate global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗