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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Changing Characteristics of Tropical Extreme Precipitation–Cloud Regimes in Warmer Climates

In this study, we investigated the changing characteristics of climatic scale (monthly) tropical extreme precipitation in warming climates using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The results are from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations driven by (a) a control experiment with the present-day sea surface temperature (SST) and CO 2 concentration, (b) P4K, the same as in (a) but with a uniform increase of 4K in the SST globally, and (c) the same as in (a), but with an imposed SST and CO 2 concentration from the outputs of the coupled E3SM forced by a 4xCO 2 concentration. We found that as the surface warmed under P4K and 4xCO 2 , both convective and stratiform rain increased. Importantly, there was an increasing fractional contribution of stratiform rain as a function of the precipitation intensity, with the most extreme but rare events occurring preferentially over land more than the ocean, and more so under 4xCO 2 than P4K. Extreme precipitation was facilitated by increased precipitation efficiency, reflecting accelerated rates of recycling of precipitation cloud water (both liquid and ice phases) in regions with colder anvil cloud tops. Changes in the vertical profiles of clouds, condensation heating, and vertical motions indicate increasing precipitation–cloud–circulation organization from the control and P4K to 4xCO 2 . The results suggest that large-scale ocean warming, that is, P4K, was the primary cause contributing to an organization structure resembling the well-known mesoscale convective system (MCS), with increased extreme precipitation on shorter (hourly to daily) time scales. Additional 4xCO 2 atmospheric radiative heating and dynamically consistent anomalous SST further amplified the MCS organization under P4K. Analyses of the surface moist static energy distribution show that increases in the surface moisture (temperature) under P4K and 4xCO 2 was the key driver leading to enhanced convective instability over tropical ocean (land). However, a fast and large increase in the land surface temperature and lack of available local moisture resulted in a strong reduction in the land surface relative humidity, reflecting severe drying and enhanced convective inhibition (CIN). It is argued that very extreme and rare “record-breaking” precipitation events found over land under P4K, and more so under 4xCO 2 , are likely due to the delayed onset of deep convection, that is, the longer the suppression of deep convection by CIN, the more severe the extreme precipitation when it eventually occurs, due to the release of a large amount of stored surplus convective available potential energy in the lower troposphere during prolonged CIN.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Late Quaternary glacier sensitivity to temperature and precipitation distribution in the Southern Alps of New Zealand

Glaciers respond to climate variations and leave geomorphic evidence that represents an important terrestrial paleoclimate record. However, the accuracy of paleoclimate reconstructions from glacial geology is limited by the challenge of representing mountain meteorology in numerical models. Precipitation is usually treated in a simple manner and yet represents difficult-to-characterize variables such as amount, distribution, and phase. Furthermore, precipitation distributions during a glacial probably differed from present-day interglacial patterns. We applied two models to investigate glacier sensitivity to temperature and precipitation in the eastern Southern Alps of New Zealand. A 2-D model was used to quantify variations in the length of the reconstructed glaciers resulting from plausible precipitation distributions compared to variations in length resulting from change in mean annual air temperature and precipitation amount. A 1-D model was used to quantify variations in length resulting from interannual climate variability. Assuming that present-day interglacial values represent precipitation distributions during the last glacial, a range of plausible present-day precipitation distributions resulted in uncertainty in the Last Glacial Maximum length of the Pukaki Glacier of 17.1?km (24%) and the Rakaia Glacier of 9.3?km (25%), corresponding to a 0.5°C difference in temperature. Smaller changes in glacier length resulted from a 50% decrease in precipitation amount from present-day values (-14% and -18%) and from a 50% increase in precipitation amount (5% and 9%). Our results demonstrate that precipitation distribution can produce considerable variation in simulated glacier extents and that reconstructions of paleoglaciers should include this uncertainty.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Simulation of Precipitation Extremes Using a Stochastic Convective Parameterization in the NCAR CAM5 Under Different Resolutions

With the incorporation of the Plant-Craig stochastic deep convection scheme into the Zhang-McFarlane deterministic parameterization in the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5), its impact on extreme precipitation at different resolutions (2°, 1°, and 0.5°) is investigated. CAM5 with the stochastic deep convection scheme (experiment (EXP)) simulates the precipitation extreme indices better than the standard version (control). At 2° and 1° resolutions, EXP increases high percentile (>99th) daily precipitation over the United States, Europe, and China, resulting in a better agreement with observations. However, at 0.5° resolution, due to enhanced grid-scale precipitation with increasing resolution, EXP overestimates extreme precipitation over southeastern U.S. and eastern Europe. The reduced biases in EXP at each resolution benefit from a broader probability distribution function of convective precipitation intensity simulated. Among EXP simulations at different resolutions, if the spatial averaging area over which input quantities used in convective closure are spatially averaged in the stochastic convection scheme is comparable, the modeled convective precipitation intensity decreases with increasing resolution, when gridded to the same resolution, while the total precipitation is not sensitive to model resolution, exhibiting some degree of scale-awareness. Sensitivity tests show that for the same resolution, increasing the size of spatial averaging area decreases convective precipitation but increases the grid-scale precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate

Abstract This research seeks to understand simulated supercell precipitation characteristics across the conterminous United States (CONUS) using high‐resolution, convection‐permitting, dynamically downscaled simulations for three 15‐year epochs. Epochs include a historical end‐of‐20th‐century period (1990–2005) and two end‐of‐21st‐century (2085–2100) scenarios for intermediate and pessimistic greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Simulated updraft helicity, which measures the corkscrew flow within a storm's updraft, is used as a proxy for supercells. An algorithm tracks and catalogues updraft helicity swaths that, when buffered, are used to acquire simulated precipitation from supercells. The historical epoch provides a baseline climatology of supercell precipitation for a contemporary climate, which is then compared against the two future epochs to assess how supercell precipitation may change during the 21st century. Despite their relatively small size, supercells provide critical precipitation to the Wheat and Corn Belts, large expanses of CONUS pasture and rangeland, regional aquifers and several large river basins. Many areas in the central CONUS receive upwards of 3%–6% of their annual and 5%–8% of their warm‐season precipitation from these storms. Results suggest that precipitation contribution from supercells will decrease in the future across most of the High Plains and Central and Northern Great Plains with robust increases likely across the south‐central and Southeast regions. Supercell precipitation rates are expected to increase for large portions of the CONUS by the end‐of‐the‐21st‐century, suggesting a growing threat for flash floods from these storms as they become more efficient precipitation producers. This research provides an initial perspective on the magnitude of supercell precipitation and potential changes to this important hydrologic input to assist water‐sensitive industries, private and public insurance markets, agriculture entities, as well as inform plans to mitigate and build resilience to rapid environmental and societal change.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2019

Contrasting the responses of extreme precipitation to changes in surface air and dew point temperatures

The Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) relationship is a thermodynamic relationship between saturation vapor pressure and temperature. Based on the C–C relationship, the scaling of extreme precipitation with respect to surface air temperature (i.e., extreme precipitation scaling) has been widely believed to quantify the sensitivity of these extremes to global surface warming under climate change. However, the extreme precipitation scaling rate in the observations produces counter-intuitive results, particularly in the tropics (i.e., strong negative scaling in the tropical land) possibly associated with limitations in moisture availability under the high-temperature bands. The trends in extreme precipitation based on station data are mixed with decreases in most of the tropics and subtropics and increases in most of the USA, western Europe, Australia, and a large portion of Asia. To try to reconcile these results, we examine the extreme precipitation scaling using dew point temperature and extreme precipitation and compare these results with those obtained from surface air temperature and extreme precipitation using station-based data, reanalysis data, and climate model simulations. We find that this mix of increases and decreases in the trends of extreme precipitation across the planet is more similar to the changes in surface dew point temperature rather than the actual temperature across the station-based data, reanalysis data, and the historical experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5). These findings suggest that dew point temperature is a better and more realistic metric for the responses of extreme precipitation to temperature increases. Therefore, the risk of having extreme precipitation is higher than what was obtained using surface air temperature, particularly in the tropics and subtropics (e.g., South Asia), areas of the world characterized by extremely high population density and severe poverty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Using complimentary microscopy methods to examine Ni-Mn-Si-precipitates in highly-irradiated reactor pressure vessel steels

Nano-scale Ni-Mn-Si-rich precipitates formed in a reactor pressure vessel steel under high neutron fluence have been characterized using highly complimentary atom probe tomography (APT) and scanning transmission electron microscopy with energy dispersive spectroscopy (STEM-EDS) combined with STEM-EDS modeling. Using these techniques in a synergistic manner to overcome the well-known trajectory aberrations in APT data, the average upper limit Fe concentration within the precipitates was found to be ~6 at.%. Using this knowledge, accurate compositions of the precipitates was determined and it was found that the spread of precipitate compositions was large, but mostly centered around the Γ2-and G-phases. The use of STEM-EDS also allowed for larger areas to be examined, and segregation of minor solutes was observed to occur on grain boundaries, along with Ni-Mn-Si-rich precipitates that were smaller in size than those in the matrix. Solute segregation at the grain boundaries is proposed to occur through a radiation induced segregation or radiation enhanced diffusion mechanism due to the presence of a denuded zone about the grain boundary. It is also proposed that the reduced precipitate size at the grain boundaries is due to the structure of the grain boundary. The lack of Ni-Mn-Si precipitates observed in larger Mo-rich precipitates is also discussed, and the absence of the minor solutes required to form the Ni-Mn-Si precipitates results in the lack of nucleation. This is in contrast to cementite phases in which Ni-Mn-Si precipitates have been seen to be formed. It was also determined through this work that the exclusion of all the Fe ions during atom probe analysis is a reasonable approximation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Strengthening mechanisms for microstructures containing unimodal and bimodal γ' precipitates in ATI 718Plus

Here, the influence of γ' precipitate size distribution on the deformation mechanisms under tensile loading in ATI 718Plus was studied. A set of aging treatments within the temperature range of 720 °C–900 °C was performed on solution-treated samples to obtain various γ' precipitate size distributions. Unimodal and bimodal γ' precipitate size distributions were achieved through single-step and two-step aging sequences, respectively, and such microstructures were tensile tested to failure to assess their yield strength, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation-to-failure. Some of the tensile samples were interrupted after achieving 3–4 % plastic strain, and the deformed microstructures were examined using transmission electron microscopy to investigate the γ' precipitate-dislocation interactions. For the unimodal γ' precipitate size distribution samples with the smaller γ' precipitates (radius ~ 7 nm), dislocations sheared through the precipitates. Both dislocation loops and paired dislocations were observed for the microstructures containing larger γ' precipitates (radius ~ 24 nm). The microstructure containing a bimodal γ' precipitate size distribution, which included average γ' precipitate radii of ~6 nm and ~28 nm, exhibited shearing as the dominant deformation mechanism, and this microstructure exhibited the highest strength values. The experimental observations were rationalized based on the theoretically-calculated critical resolved shear stress values for shearing and looping and a modified model for predicting the yield strength for bimodal microstructures was introduced.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Increase in extreme precipitation events under anthropogenic warming in India

India has witnessed some of the most devastating extreme precipitation events, which have affected urban transportation, agriculture, and infrastructure. Despite the profound implications and damage due to extreme precipitation events, the influence of anthropogenic warming on the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events over India remains poorly constrained. Here using the gridded observations and simulations from the Coupled model intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) and Climate of 20th century plus (C20C+) detection and attribution (D&A) project, we show that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events have increased in India during the last few decades. Along with the extreme precipitation, dew point temperature has also increased during 1979–2015. The scaling relationship between extreme precipitation and dew point temperature shows a super (more than 7% increase per unit rise in dew point temperature) Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship for the majority of south India. Moreover, southern and central India show a higher (10%/°C) scaling relationship than north India (3.5%/°C). Our analysis using the Hist (historic) and HistNat (historic natural) simulations from the CMIP5 and C20C+ projects confirms an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events under the anthropogenic warming. Moreover, we show that 1–5 day precipitation maxima at 5–500 year return period increases (10–30%) under the anthropogenic warming. The frequency of precipitation extremes is projected to rise more prominently in southern and central India in the mid and end of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. Our results show a significant contribution of anthropogenic warming in the rise of the frequency of extreme precipitation, which has implications for infrastructure, agriculture, and water resources in India.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Southern Ocean Precipitation Characteristics Observed From CloudSat and Ground Instrumentation During the Macquarie Island Cloud & Radiation Experiment (MICRE): April 2016 to March 2017

A 1-year blended surface precipitation data set using Parsivel disdrometer, surface W-band radar, and tipping bucket measurements is produced for the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) and compared with retrievals from CloudSat (spaceborne 94 GHz radar). Surface precipitation was observed 44% ± 4% of the time between April 2016 and March 2017. Precipitation composed primarily of small particles (diameter <1 mm) occurred about 36% ± 2% of the time, constituting 10% of total accumulation. Remaining precipitation contained enough large particles such that the disdrometer could be used to identify the precipitation type as rain, ice, snow or wet snow. Seasonal and annual statistics on frequency of occurrence and accumulation for each precipitation type observed during MICRE are presented. Most ice and mixed phase precipitation was shallow, originating at a height of 3 km or lower, and occurred most often when Macquarie Island was to the northwest of the nearest cyclonic low-pressure center. In contrast, rain was more often deep and occurred most frequently when the island was to the southeast of cyclonic lows. A weak diurnal cycle in frequency and mean rate was present with a minimum between 12:00 and 14:00 local time and maximum between 03:00 and 06:00 local time. The CloudSat 2C-Precip-Column product missed the lightest precipitation (because the near-surface reflectivity is <-15 dBZ) and overestimated total liquid precipitation and occurrence of mixed phase precipitation, but captured reasonably well the distribution of rain rates for rates >0.5 mm/hr.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating Mechanisms Driving Differences in the Characteristics of Precipitation in the E3SM Multiscale Modeling Framework With 2D Versus 3D Cloud Resolving Model Configurations

Abstract In this study, we compare the Energy Exascale Earth Systems Model (E3SM) multiscale modeling framework (MMF) with the cloud resolving model (CRM) configured in two (2dMMF) and three (3dMMF) dimensions. We explore how CRM dimensionality impacts the representation of mean and extreme precipitation characteristics. Our results show that tropical mean precipitation patterns are better represented in 3dMMF compared to observations (Integrated Multi‐satellitE Retrivals for GPM and Global Precipitation Climatology Project One Degree Daily products), while 2dMMF better captures extreme precipitation intensity, with systematic land‐ocean differences in precipitation and cloud‐associated variables. These differences are attributed to the co‐occurrence of CRM throttling (i.e., suppressed convection in due to smaller numbers of CRM columns and domain size) and dilution (i.e., 3‐D cloud circulations with increased entrainment and lower precipitation efficiency) effects. Overall, throttling results in more low‐level humidity in 2dMMF and dilution contributes to more high clouds with less precipitation efficiency in 3dMMF. Since throttling occurs more strongly over the ocean than land, the 3dMMF tends to have less cloud liquid and precipitation over the ocean and more cloud ice and precipitation over land. These results may serve as a guide for choosing the CRM structure to reduce precipitation and cloud‐related biases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Precipitation of dopants on acceptor-doped LaMnO3±δ revealed by defect chemistry from first principles

Perovskite oxides degrade at elevated temperatures while precipitating dopant-rich particles on the surface. A knowledge-based improvement of surface stability requires a fundamental and quantitative understanding of the dopant precipitation mechanism on these materials. We propose that dopant precipitation is a consequence of the variation of dopant solubility between calcination and operating conditions in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) and electrolyzer cells (SOECs). To study dopant precipitation, we use 20% (D = Ca, Sr, Ba)-doped LaMnO3+δ (LDM20) as a model system. We employ a defect model taking input from density functional theory calculations. The defect model considers the equilibration of LDM20 with a reservoir consisting of dopant oxide (DO), peroxide (DO2), and O2 in the gas phase. The equilibrated non-stoichiometry of the A-site and B-site as a function of temperature, T, and oxygen partial pressure, p(O2), reveals three regimes for LDM20: A-site deficient (oxidizing conditions), A-site rich (atmospheric conditions), and near-stoichiometric (reducing conditions). Assuming an initial A/B non-stoichiometry, we compute the dopant precipitation boundaries in a p–T phase diagram. Our model predicts precipitation both under reducing (DO) and under highly oxidizing conditions (DO2). We found precipitation under anodic, SOEC conditions to be promoted by large dopant size, while under cathodic, SOFC conditions precipitation is promoted by initial A-site excess. The main driving forces for precipitation are oxygen uptake by the condensed phase under oxidizing conditions and oxygen release assisted by B-site vacancies under reducing conditions. Possible strategies for mitigating dopant precipitation under in electrolytic and fuel cell conditions are discussed.

Hess, Franziska (ORCID:000000024460643X)↗
DOE OSTI2012

An underestimated role of precipitation frequency in regulating summer soil moisture

Soil moisture induced droughts are expected to become more frequent under future global climate change. Precipitation has been previously assumed to be mainly responsible for variability in summer soil moisture. However, little is known about the impacts of precipitation frequency on summer soil moisture, either interannually or spatially. To better understand the temporal and spatial drivers of summer drought, 415 site yr measurements observed at 75 flux sites world wide were used to analyze the temporal and spatial relationships between summer soil water content (SWC) and the precipitation frequencies at various temporal scales, i.e., from half-hourly, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h measurements. Summer precipitation was found to be an indicator of interannual SWC variability with r of 0.49 (p < 0.001) for the overall dataset. However, interannual variability in summer SWC was also significantly correlated with the five precipitation frequencies and the sub-daily precipitation frequencies seemed to explain the interannual SWC variability better than the total of precipitation. Spatially, all these precipitation frequencies were better indicators of summer SWC than precipitation totals, but these better performances were only observed in non-forest ecosystems. Our results demonstrate that precipitation frequency may play an important role in regulating both interannual and spatial variations of summer SWC, which has probably been overlooked or underestimated. However, the spatial interpretation should carefully consider other factors, such as the plant functional types and soil characteristics of diverse ecoregions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Orographic Precipitation Response to Microphysical Parameter Perturbations for Idealized Moist Nearly Neutral Flow

Abstract This study explores the sensitivity of clouds and precipitation to microphysical parameter perturbations using idealized simulations of moist, nearly neutral flow over a bell-shaped mountain. Numerous parameters are perturbed within the Morrison microphysics scheme. The parameters that most affect cloud and precipitation characteristics are the snow fall speed coefficient As, snow particle density ρs, rain accretion (WRA), and ice–cloud water collection efficiency (ECI). Surface precipitation rates are affected by As and ρs through changes to the precipitation efficiency caused by direct and indirect impacts on snow fall speed, respectively. WRA and ECI both affect the amount of cloud water removed, but the precipitation sensitivity differs. Large WRA results in increased precipitation efficiency and cloud water removal below the freezing level, indirectly decreasing cloud condensation rates; the net result is little precipitation sensitivity. Large ECI removes cloud water above the freezing level but with little influence on overall condensation rates. Two environmental experiments are performed to test the robustness of the results: 1) reduction of the wind speed profile by 30% (LowU) and 2) decreasing the surface potential temperature to induce a freezing level below the mountain top (LowFL). Parameter perturbations within LowU result in similar mechanisms acting on precipitation, but a much weaker sensitivity compared to the control. The LowFL case shows ρs is no longer a dominant parameter and As now induces changes to cloud condensation, since more of the cloud depth is present above the freezing level. In general, perturbations to microphysical parameters affect the location of peak precipitation, while the total amount of precipitation is more sensitive to environmental parameter perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating LEO and GEO Observations: Toward Optimal Summertime Satellite Precipitation Retrieval

Abstract Reliable quantitative precipitation estimation with a rich spatiotemporal resolution is vital for understanding the Earth’s hydrological cycle. Precipitation estimation over land and coastal regions is necessary for addressing the high degree of spatial heterogeneity of water availability and demand, and for resolving the extremes that modulate and amplify hazards such as flooding and landslides. Advancements in computation power along with unique high spatiotemporal and spectral resolution data streams from passive meteorological sensors aboard geosynchronous Earth-orbiting (GEO) and low Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellites offer exciting opportunities to retrieve information about surface precipitation phenomena using data-driven machine learning techniques. In this study, the capabilities of U-Net–like architecture are investigated to map instantaneous, summertime surface precipitation intensity at the spatial resolution of 2 km. The calibrated brightness temperature products from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) radiometer are combined with multispectral images (visible, near-infrared, and infrared bands) from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard the GOES-R satellites as main inputs to the U-Net–like precipitation algorithm. Total precipitable water and 2-m temperature from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model are also used as auxiliary inputs to the model. The results show that the U-Net–like algorithm can capture fine-scale patterns and intensity of surface precipitation at high spatial resolution over stratiform and convective precipitation regimes. The evaluations reveal the potential of extracting relevant, high spatial features over complex surface types such as mountainous regions and coastlines. The algorithm allows users to interpret the inputs’ importance and can serve as a starting point for further exploration of precipitation systems within the field of hydrometeorology.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Annual Herbaceous Plants Exhibit Altered Morphological Traits in Response to Altered Precipitation and Drought Patterns in Semiarid Sandy Grassland, Northern China

The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events and severe drought are predicted to increase in semiarid areas due to global climate change. Plant morphological traits can reflect plant responses to a changing environment, such as altered precipitation or drought patterns. In this study, we examined the response of morphological traits of root, stem, leaf and reproduction meristems of annual herbaceous species to altered precipitation and drought patterns in a semiarid sandy grassland. The study involved a control treatment (100% of background precipitation) and the following six altered precipitation treatments: (1) P(+): precipitation increased by 30%, (2) P(++): precipitation increased by 60%, (3) P(-): precipitation decreased by 30%, (4) P(--): precipitation decreased by 60%, (5) drought 1 (D1): 46-day drought from May 1st to June 15th, and (6) drought 2 (D2): 46-day drought from July 1st to August 15th. P(++) significantly increased root length, flower length-to-width ratio, both P(+) and P(++) significantly increased stem length and flower number in the plant growing seasons, while all of them decreased under P(-) and P(--). The annual herbaceous plants marginally increased the number of second-level stem branches and stem diameter in order to better resist the severe drought stress under P(--). P(+) and P(++) increased the root, stem, leaf, and flower dry weight, with the flower dry weight accounting for a larger proportion than the other aboveground parts. Under D2, the plants used the limited water resources more efficiently by increasing the root-to-shoot ratio compared with P(-), P(--) and D1, which reflects biomass allocation to belowground increased. The linear mixed-effects models and redundancy analysis showed that the root-to-shoot ratio and the dry weight of various plant components were significantly affected by morphological traits and altered precipitation magnitude. Our results showed that the herbaceous species have evolved morphological trait responses that allow them to adapt to climate change. Such differences in morphological traits may ultimately affect the growing patterns of annual herbaceous species, enhancing their drought-tolerant capacity in semiarid sandy grassland during the ongoing climate change.

Sun, Shan-Shan↗
DOE OSTI2026

Distinct drivers of recent seasonal precipitation increase over Central Asia: roles of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases

Observational evidence reveals a pronounced wetting trend over Central Asia in recent decades, with the most substantial increases occurring during winter and summer. Yet the extent to which the drivers of these changes differ seasonally remains unknown. Here, we use single-forcing experiments from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) to examine the effects of various external forcings on winter and summer precipitation across Central Asia and to explore the physical mechanisms underlying seasonal precipitation changes. We find that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing mainly increases winter precipitation by enhancing atmospheric moisture content through warming. In contrast, in summer, Asian sulfate aerosols enhance precipitation by modulating the westerly jet, which strengthens atmospheric moisture transport into the region. Asian black carbon exerts an opposing influence that partially offsets the sulfate-induced effect. Further attribution analysis based on CMIP6 simulations reinforces these sensitivity results and shows that GHG forcing is the primary driver of winter precipitation increases whereas anthropogenic aerosols dominate summer trends. Future CMIP6 projections suggest that under moderate- to high-emission scenarios, winter precipitation will continue to rise due to increasing GHG concentrations, while summer precipitation may decline across much of Central Asia as a result of reduced aerosol emissions following Asian clean air policies. These findings highlight a distinct seasonality in the drivers of recent precipitation increase and suggest a plausible divergence in future winter and summer precipitation trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Kinetics of calcite precipitation by ureolytic bacteria under aerobic and anaerobic conditions

The kinetics of urea hydrolysis (ureolysis) and induced calcium carbonate(CaCO 3 ) precipitation for engineering use in the subsurface was investigated under aerobic conditions using Sporosarcina pasteurii (ATCC strain 11859) as well as Bacillus sphaericus strains 21776 and 21787. All bacterial strains showed ureolytic activity inducing CaCO 3 precipitation aerobically. Rate constants not normalized to biomass demonstrated slightly higher-rate coefficients for both ureolysis (k urea ) and CaCO 3 precipitation (k precip ) for B. sphaericus 21776 (k urea =0.10±0.03 h -1 , k precip =0.60±0.34 h -1 ) compared to S. pasteurii (k urea =0.07±0.02 h -1 , k precip =0.25±0.02 h -1 ), though these differences were not statistically significantly different. B. sphaericus 21787 showed little ureolytic activity but was still capable of inducing some CaCO 3 precipitation. Cell growth appeared to be inhibited during the period of CaCO 3 precipitation. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) images suggest this is due to the encasement of cells and was reflected in lower k urea values observed in the presence of dissolved Ca. However, biomass regrowth could be observed after CaCO 3 precipitation ceased, which suggests that ureolysis-induced CaCO 3 precipitation is not necessarily lethal for the entire population. The kinetics of ureolysis and CaCO 3 precipitation with S. pasteurii was further analyzed under anaerobic conditions. Rate coefficients obtained in anaerobic environments were comparable to those under aerobic conditions; however, no cell growth was observed under anaerobic conditions with $NO_3^-,SO_4^{2-}$ or Fe 3+ as potential terminal electron acceptors. These data suggest that the initial rates of ureolysis and ureolysis-induced CaCO 3 precipitation are not significantly affected by the absence of oxygen but that long-term ureolytic activity might require the addition of suitable electron acceptors. Variations in the ureolytic capabilities and associated rates of CaCO 3 precipitation between strains must be fully considered in subsurface engineering strategies that utilize microbial amendments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Frequencies and Characteristics of Global Oceanic Precipitation from Shipboard Present-Weather Reports

Ship reports of present weather obtained from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set are analyzed for the period 1958-91 in order to elucidate regional and seasonal variations in the climatological frequency, phase, intensity, and character of oceanic precipitation. Specific findings of note include the following: 1) The frequency of thunderstorm reports, relative to all precipitation reports, is a strong function of location, with thunderstorm activity being favored within 1000-3000 km of major tropical and subtropical land masses, while being quite rare at other locations, even within the intertropical convergence zone. 2) The latitudinal frequency of precipitation over the southern oceans increases steadily toward the Antarctic continent and shows relatively little seasonal variation. The frequency of convective activity, however, shows considerable seasonal variability, with sharp winter maxima occurring near 38 deg. latitude in both hemispheres. 3) Drizzle is the preferred form of precipitation in a number of regions, most of which coincide with known regions of persistent marine stratus and stratocumulus in the subtropical highs. Less well documented is the high relative frequency of drizzle in the vicinity of the equatorial sea surface temperature front in the eastern Pacific. 4) Regional differences in the temporal scale of precipitation events (e.g., transient showers versus steady precipitation) are clearly depicted by way of the ratio of the frequency of precipitation at the observation time to the frequency of all precipitation reports, including precipitation during the previous hour. The results of this study suggest that many current satellite rainfall estimation techniques may substantially underestimate the fractional coverage or frequency of precipitation poleward of 50 deg. latitude and in the subtropical dry zones. They also draw attention to the need to carefully account for regional differences in the physical and spatial properties of rainfall when developing calibration relationships for satellite algorithms.

Petty, Grant W.↗