Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Natural Probabilities”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

The Nature of C Asteroid Regolith from Meteorite Observations

Regolith from C (and related) asteroid bodies are a focus of the current missions Dawn at Ceres, Hayabusa 2 and OSIRIS REx. An asteroid as large as Ceres is expected to be covered by a mature regolith, and as Hayabusa demonstrated, flat and therefore engineeringly-safe ponded deposits will probably be the sampling sites for both Hayabusa 2 and OSIRIS REx. Here we examine what we have learned about the mineralogy of fine-grained asteroid regolith from recent meteorite studies and the examination of the samples harvested from asteroid Itokawa by Hayabusa.

Zolensky, M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Thoughts Without Content are Empty, Intuitions Without Concepts are Blind - Determinism and Contingency Revisited

Was the emergence of life a predictable outcome of chemical evolution on earth? Could evolution produce life very different from ours? These are one of the oldest questions in the field of the origin of life that not only have broad philosophical implications but also impact how we approach the problem from the methodological standpoint. Framing the issue in terms of the dichotomy between contingency and determinism is not a fortunate because these two terms in their conventional meaning are neither mutually exclusive nor jointly exhaustive. Determinism, represented in natural sciences by Newtonian physics, relies on the assumption that every event is causally determined by a chain of previous events. In the context of the origin of life it means that once the initial conditions on the early earth have been specified further evolution follows inevitably. Considering uncertainties about conditions on the prebiotic earth, many plausible sets of initial conditions can be defined, each followed by a separate deterministic trajectory. This conventional understanding of determinism does not admit contingency. Further, it has no implications for evaluating how many sets of initial conditions lead to the emergence of life. It appears that a better framing of the problem is as follows: given plausible sets of initial conditions on the early earth how probable and broadly spread are evolutionary trajectories that lead to life? Instead of undertaking an impossible task of specifying microscopic initial conditions for all components of the system one uses a reduced representation of this system and specify only a small set of essential macroscopic parameters, values (or ranges of values) of which can be identified, inferred or estimated from experiment, theory or historical record. The following evolutionary trajectories are still governed by laws of physics and chemistry but become probabilistic and "contingency" is admitted as variations in other variables in the system. A similar reasoning is common in other fields of science, for example in statistical mechanics. Some trajectories lead to life, perhaps in different forms, whereas others do not. Of our true interest is the ratio of these two outcomes. The issue of determinism does not directly enter the picture. The debate about the likelihood of the emergence of life is quite old. One view holds that the origin of life is an event governed by chance, and the result of so many random events (contingencies) is unpredictable. This view was eloquently expressed by Monod. In his book "Chance or Necessity" he argued that life was a product of "nature's roulette." In an alternative view, expressed in particular by deDuve and Morowitz, the origin of life is considered a highly probable or even inevitable event (although its details need not be determined in every respect). Only in this sense the origin of life can be considered a "deterministic event".

Pohorille, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2007

Comprehensive Shuttle Foam Debris Reduction Strategies

The Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) was clear in its assessment of the loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia on February 3, 2003. Foam liberated from the External Tank (ET) impacting the brittle wing leading edge (WLE) of the orbiter causing the vehicle to disintegrate upon re-entry. Naturally, the CAB pointed out numerous issues affecting this exact outcome in hopes of correcting systems of systems failures any one of which might have altered the outcome. However, Discovery s recent return to flight (RTF) illustrates the primacy of erosion of foam and the risk of future undesirable outcomes. It is obvious that the original RTF focused approach to this problem was not equal to a comprehensive foam debris reduction activity consistent with the high national value of the Space Shuttle assets. The root cause is really very simple when looking at the spray-on foam insulation for the entire ET as part of the structure (e.g., actual stresses > materials allowable) rather than as some sort of sizehime limited ablator. This step is paramount to accepting the CAB recommendation of eliminating debris or in meeting any level of requirements due to the fundamental processes ensuring structural materials maintain their integrity. Significant effort has been expended to identify root cause of the foam debris In-Flight Anomaly (FA) of STS-114. Absent verifiable location specific data pre-launch (T-0) and in-flight, only a most probable cause can be identified. Indeed, the literature researched corroborates NASNTM-2004-2 13238 disturbing description of ill defined materials characterization, variable supplier constituents and foam processing irregularities. Also, foam is sensitive to age and the exposed environment making baseline comparisons difficult without event driven data. Conventional engineering processes account for such naturally occurring variability by always maintaining positive margins. Success in a negative margin range is not consistently achieved. Looking at the ET S spray-on foam insulation as part of the structural system (e.g., glass half full mentality) will create an environment where ET debris levels as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) can be realized. ALARA is a NASA requirements philosophy deployed for the complex, mission altering radiation exposure requirements for life safety of astronauts. In the Shuttle s case, reasonableness is established by exhaustive engineering rigor, allowable debris size/quantity, technology maturity and programmatic constraints. A more robust urethane foam thermal protection system (TPS) will enhance the hctionality of the new Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) Upper Stage. This paper will outline the strategy for a comprehensive effort to reduce ET foam debris and outline steps leading to an improved foam TPS. The NASA must remain committed to such an approach no matter what becomes of the next flight s actual debris field lest we fall back into a false sense of security. This commitment along with full implementation of all the other CAB recommendations such as orbiter hardening will significantly improve the Shuttle system, the engineering workforce, future capabilities & alternate policy offramps, national human resource protection, high value national asset protection and increase the level of service to the overall NASA mission.

Semmes, Edmund B.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Solution to a gene divergence problem under arbitrary stable nucleotide transition probabilities

A nucleic acid chain, L nucleotides in length, with the specific base sequence B(1)B(2) ... B(L) is defined by the L-dimensional vector B = (B(1), B(2), ..., B(L)). For twelve given constant non-negative transition probabilities that, in a specified position, the base B is replaced by the base B' in a single step, an exact analytical expression is derived for the probability that the position goes from base B to B' in X steps. Assuming that each base mutates independently of the others, an exact expression is derived for the probability that the initial gene sequence B goes to a sequence B' = (B'(1), B'(2), ..., B'(L)) after X = (X(1), X(2), ..., X(L)) base replacements. The resulting equations allow a more precise accounting for the effects of Darwinian natural selection in molecular evolution than does the idealized (biologically less accurate) assumption that each of the four nucleotides is equally likely to mutate to and be fixed as one of the other three. Illustrative applications of the theory to some problems of biological evolution are given.

Holmquist, R.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Storage and retrieval of mass spectral information

Computer handling of mass spectra serves two main purposes: the interpretation of the occasional, problematic mass spectrum, and the identification of the large number of spectra generated in the gas-chromatographic-mass spectrometric (GC-MS) analysis of complex natural and synthetic mixtures. Methods available fall into the three categories of library search, artificial intelligence, and learning machine. Optional procedures for coding, abbreviating and filtering a library of spectra minimize time and storage requirements. Newer techniques make increasing use of probability and information theory in accessing files of mass spectral information.

Hohn, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Collision frequency of artificial satellites - The creation of a debris belt

As the number of artificial satellites in earth orbit increases, the probability of collisions between satellites also increases. Satellite collisions would produce orbiting fragments, each of which would increase the probability of further collisions, leading to the growth of a belt of debris around the earth. This process parallels certain theories concerning the growth of the asteroid belt. The debris flux in such an earth-orbiting belt could exceed the natural meteoroid flux, affecting future spacecraft designs. A mathematical model was used to predict the rate at which such a belt might form. Under certain conditions the belt could begin to form within this century and could be a significant problem during the next century. The possibility that numerous unobserved fragments already exist from spacecraft explosions would decrease this time interval. However, early implementation of specialized launch constraints and operational procedures could significantly delay the formation of the belt.

Donald J Kessler↗
NASA NTRS1980

The core and the magnetic field of Uranus

The existence of a magnetic field on Uranus is suggested by the tentative observation of 0.5 MHz pulses from the planet which are analogous to the Jovian decametric radiation. Analysis of a recent three-layer model leads to the conclusion that the electrical conductivity, physical state, and thermal gradients are such that a thermally driven hydromagnetic dynamo is probably operating in the core. An investigation is conducted to see whether the considered structure is suitable for the generation of a field. It is found that the existence of a magnetic field on Uranus can be understood as being a natural result of gravitational differentiation in a liquid, metallic core. The presence of a heat source in the core implies that the central temperature is approximately 8400 K rather than 7000 K in the original model

Torbett, M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Coastal Zone Color Scanner

The Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) spacecraft ocean color instrument is capable of measuring and mapping global ocean surface chlorophyll concentration. It is a scanning radiometer with multiband capability. With new electronics and some mechanical, and optical re-work, it probably can be made flight worthy. Some additional components of a second flight model are also available. An engineering study and further tests are necessary to determine exactly what effort is required to properly prepare the instrument for spaceflight and the nature of interfaces to prospective spacecraft. The CZCS provides operational instrument capability for monitoring of ocean productivity and currents. It could be a simple, low cost alternative to developing new instruments for ocean color imaging. Researchers have determined that with global ocean color data they can: specify quantitatively the role of oceans in the global carbon cycle and other major biogeochemical cycles; determine the magnitude and variability of annual primary production by marine phytoplankton on a global scale; understand the fate of fluvial nutrients and their possible affect on carbon budgets; elucidate the coupling mechanism between upwelling and large scale patterns in ocean basins; answer questions concerning the large scale distribution and timing of spring blooms in the global ocean; acquire a better understanding of the processes associated with mixing along the edge of eddies, coastal currents, western boundary currents, etc., and acquire global data on marine optical properties.

Johnson, B.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Incorporation of spatial information in Bayesian image reconstruction - The maximum residual likelihood criterion

We have developed a new figure of merit, a 'maximum-residual-likelihood' (MRL) statistic, for the goodness of fit for Bayesian image restoration which explicitly incorporates spatial information. The MRL constraint provides a natural means of incorporating the prior knowledge that the residuals contain no spatial structure through the autocorrelation function of the residuals. We demonstrate that this statistic follows a Chi-square distribution and that forcing this statistic to have its most probable value leads to a restored image whose residuals are consistent with the noise model. Our numerical experiments suggest that image restoration using the MRL statistic alone is numerically robust and produces results which are independent of the initial guess for the restored image. However, we caution that using the MRL statistic without an image prior can result in overresolution in low SNR portions of the image.

Pina, R. K.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Building Hybrid Rover Models for NASA: Lessons Learned

Particle filters have recently become popular for diagnosis and monitoring of hybrid systems. In this paper we describe our experiences using particle filters on a real diagnosis problem, the NASA Ames Research Center's K-9 rover. As well as the challenge of modelling the dynamics of the system, there are two major issues in applying a particle filter to such a model. The first is the asynchronous nature of the system-observations from different subsystems arrive at different rates, and occasionally out of order, leading to large amounts of uncertainty in the state of the system. The second issue is data interpretation. The particle filter produces a probability distribution over the state of the system, from which summary statistics that can be used for control or higher-level diagnosis must be extracted. We describe our approaches to both these problems, as well as other modelling issues that arose in this domain.

Willeke, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS1981

Interplanetary dust - Its physical nature and entry into the atmosphere of terrestrial planets

Studies of extraterrestrial particles collected in the stratosphere and from the sea floor indicate that the majority of interplanetary dust is a black, fine grained material similar to carbonaceous chondrites but different from known meteorites in mineralogy and structure. If the analyzed samples are typical interplanetary particles then they are probably cometary materials similar to the vast numbers of cometary particles which have continuously entered the earth's atmosphere for the lifetime of the solar system. If comets do not contain large strong rocks capable of producing conventional meteorites then dust is the only form in which organic materials from comets can be accreted by the earth.

Brownlee, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Electromagnetic wave energy conversion research

Known electromagnetic wave absorbing structures found in nature were first studied for clues of how one might later design large area man-made radiant-electric converters. This led to the study of the electro-optics of insect dielectric antennae. Insights were achieved into how these antennae probably operate in the infrared 7-14um range. EWEC theoretical models and relevant cases were concisely formulated and justified for metal and dielectric absorber materials. Finding the electromagnetic field solutions to these models is a problem not yet solved. A rough estimate of losses in metal, solid dielectric, and hollow dielectric waveguides indicates future radiant-electric EWEC research should aim toward dielectric materials for maximum conversion efficiency. It was also found that the absorber bandwidth is a theoretical limitation on radiant-electric conversion efficiency. Ideally, the absorbers' wavelength would be centered on the irradiating spectrum and have the same bandwith as the irradiating wave. The EWEC concept appears to have a valid scientific basis, but considerable more research is needed before it is thoroughly understood, especially for the complex randomly polarized, wide band, phase incoherent spectrum of the sun. Specific recommended research areas are identified.

Bailey, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Evolution of ion emission yield of alloys with the nature of the solute. 2: Interpretation

Solid solutions of transition elements in copper, nickel, cobalt, iron, and aluminum matrices were analyzed by observing secondary ion emissions under bombardment with 6.2-keV argon ions. Enchancement of the production of solute-element ions was observed. An ion emission model is proposed according to which the ion yield is governed by the probability of an atom leaving the metal in a preionized state. The energy distribution of the valence electrons of the solute atoms is the bases of the probability calculation.

Blaise, G.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Cosmic-ray exposure history at Taurus-Littrow

Recent surface history at Taurus-Littrow is dominated by emplacement of the Central Cluster and Bright Mantle morphological units, both believed to have resulted from arrival of ejecta from a large primary crater, probably Tycho. This paper reports new noble gas data for eight Apollo 17 rocks. Kr-81 - Kr cosmic ray exposure ages for these rocks affirm the observation of a pronounced grouping of ages, reinforcing the photogeologic evidence for the site-wide nature of the Central Cluster event. The consequences of post-cratering shielding changes are considered and it is concluded that the differences can reasonably be attributed to these changes, particularly because of the greater likelihood of rollover and impact fragmentation of the relatively smaller rocks from which most age data have been obtained. These considerations also lead to a more refined age estimate of 109 plus or minus 4 m.y. for Central Cluster, the Bright Mantle, and Tycho.

Drozd, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Voyager observations of ion phase space densities in the Jovian magnetosphere

Data from the Voyager low-energy charged particle experiment (LECP) were used to calculate ion phase space densities in Jupiter's magnetosphere. The calculation of F at constant mu and J(2) requires the determination of particle fluxes at specific pitch angles and energies. It is shown that the greatest uncertainties in the determination of F from LECP data arise from the fits to the measured pitch angle distributions and differential energy spectra. An estimate is provided of this uncertainty and of others arising from model radial diffusion coefficients and magnetic fields. The general nature of the curves is consistent with inward diffusion of these energetic ions from the outer magnetosphere combined with losses near but starting beyond the orbit of Io. These losses are not consistent with simple satellite sweeping by Io alone and are probably due to an Io-torus wave-particle interaction. The lifetime against loss deduced from the data is approximately 20,000 s near Io and is a value consistent with strong diffusion losses. The measured ion loss rate declines much more rapidly than the strong diffusion loss rate as L increases from 7 to 9, suggesting that the loss rate is well below the strong-diffusion rate beyond 7 Jupiter radii for ions observed by the LECP.

Paonessa, M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Superclustering of quasi-stellar object absorption clouds

The clustering of C IV absorption line systems along the lines of sight to the 55 quasars in the survey of Sargent, Boksenberg, and Steidel is examined. Their original result that there is strong clustering of these systems at separations less than 1000 km/s is confirmed. The peculiar velocities of the clouds that combine with the one-dimensional nature of the sampling is shown to preclude any detailed comparison of the observed clustering strength on these scales with that found for nearby systems such as galaxies. The sample also contains significant clustering on larger scales, 1000-10,000 km/s. This probably reflects true spatial clustering of an amplitude exceeding that observed for any nearby systems, even rich clusters of galaxies. The signal is due mainly to high equivalent width absorbers and is dominated by a single very large 'absorption supercluster' in the quasar 0237-233. It seems likely that this structure was produced by processes other than gravitational instability.

Heisler, Julia↗
NASA NTRS1992

Cosmogenic radioisotopes on LDEF surfaces

The radioisotope Be-7 was discovered in early 1990 on the front surface, and the front surface only, of the LDEF. A working hypothesis is that the isotope, which is known to be mainly produced in the stratosphere by spallation of nitrogen and oxygen nuclei with cosmic ray protons or secondary neutrons, diffuses upward and is absorbed onto metal surfaces of spacecraft. The upward transport must be rapid, that is, its characteristic time scale is similar to, or shorter than, the 53 day half-life of the isotope. It is probably by analogy with meteoritic metal atmospheric chemistry, that the form of the Be at a few 100 km altitude is as the positive ion Be(+) which is efficiently incorporated into the ionic lattice of oxides, such as Al2O3, Cr2O3, Fe2O3, etc., naturally occurring on surfaces of Al and stainless steel. Other radioisotopes of Be, Cl, and C are also produced in the atmosphere, and a search was begun to discover these. Of interest are Be-10 and C-14 for which the production cross sections are well known. The method of analysis is accelerator mass spectrometry. Samples from LDEF clamp plates are being chemically extracted, purified, and prepared for an accelerator run.

Gregory, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Design of Ternary Correlation Filters to Reduce Probability of Error

The problem of designing ternary phase and amplitude filters (TPAF's) that reduce the probability of image misclassification for a two-class image set is studied. The Fisher ratio is used as a measure of the correct classification rate, and an attempt is made to maximize this quantity in the filter designs. Given the nonanalytical nature of the design problem, a simulated annealing optimization technique is employed. Computer simulation results are presented for several cases including single in-class and out-of-class image sets and multiple image sets corresponding to the design of synthetic discriminant function filters. Significant improvements are found in expected rates of correct classification in comparison to binary phase-only filters and other TPAF designs. Approaches to accelerate the filter design process are also discussed.

Downie, John D.↗