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At least 415 records · Page 23

Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field

In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.

Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗

Photometry of Outer Solar System Objects from the Dark Energy Survey. I. Photometric Methods, Light-curve Distributions, and Trans-Neptunian Binaries

We report the methods of and initial scientific inferences from the extraction of precision photometric information for the >800 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) discovered in the images of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). Scene-modeling photometry is used to obtain shot-noise-limited flux measures for each exposure of each TNO, with background sources subtracted. Comparison of double-source fits to the pixel data with single-source fits are used to identify and characterize two binary TNO systems. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method samples the joint likelihood of the intrinsic colors of each source as well as the amplitude of its flux variation, given the time series of multiband flux measurements and their uncertainties. A catalog of these colors and light-curve amplitudes A is included with this publication. We show how to assign a likelihood to the distribution q(A) of light-curve amplitudes in any subpopulation. Using this method, we find decisive evidence (i.e., evidence ratio <0.01) that cold classical (CC) TNOs with absolute magnitude 6 < H$_{r}$ < 8.2 are more variable than the hot classical (HC) population of the same H$_{r}$, reinforcing theories that the former form in situ and the latter arise from a different physical population. Resonant and scattering TNOs in this H$_{r}$ range have variability consistent with either the HCs or CCs. DES TNOs with H$_{r}$ < 6 are seen to be decisively less variable than higher-H$_{r}$ members of any dynamical group, as expected. More surprising is that detached TNOs are decisively less variable than scattering TNOs, which requires them to have distinct source regions or some subsequent differential processing.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

LDRD Abbreviated report: High-Order General-Discrete-Ordinates Method Enabling Efficient Deterministic Transport in Hydrodynamic Simulations

Deterministic transport simulations for national-security and energy applications often operate in high-dimensional phase-space, where accuracy and cost both become major challenges. A common numerical artifact in such problems is the “ray-effect,” which appears as unphysical streaks. Beyond misinterpretation, these artifacts can contaminate tightly coupled physics, such as fluid dynamics, radiation-hydrodynamics, and laser-plasma interactions, eroding the predictive capability of entire multiphysics workflows. Our objective was to make high-dimension studies practical on modern hardware while mitigating the ray-effect without relying on prohibitively expensive sampling approaches such as Monte Carlo methods. We developed the Generic Discretization Library (GenDiL), a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU)-first framework that uses high-order Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods and matrix-free algorithms to reduce memory usage and improve computational efficiency, critical for phase-space simulations. GenDiL supports phase-space adaptivity in both mesh size and polynomial order (hp-adaptivity) to place resolution only where it is needed. A central capability is Local Dimensional Refinement (LDR), which couples lower-dimension continuum models to higher-dimension kinetic models through stable and conservative interfaces, so that high-fidelity physics is applied only in regions where it is essential. Building on the GenDiL framework, we developed the General SN (GSN) family of algorithms as a true generalization of the polar SN approach (discrete ordinates, often denoted SN). Rather than tying discrete ordinates to a specific polar change of coordinates, GSN formulates transport on an arbitrary change of coordinates chosen to reduce ray-effect. We studied two complementary variants: an analytic variant, where the coordinate map is prescribed in advance by a closed-form function; and a data-driven variant, where a quantity of interest, such as the net flux, guides the coordinate system. GenDiL provides the library infrastructure for efficient GPU execution, but the GSN concept is algorithmic and independent of any one library. Across representative high-dimension tests, including non-symmetric solutions, both variants delivered strong ray-effect mitigation at practical cost, moving four- to six-dimensional analysis toward repeatable, routine studies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Ab initio electroweak corrections to superallowed β decays and their impact on V ud

Radiative corrections are essential for an accurate determination of V ud from superallowed β decays. In view of recent progress in the single-nucleon sector, the uncertainty is dominated by the theoretical description of nucleus-dependent effects, limiting the precision that can currently be achieved for V ud . In this work, we provide a detailed account of the electroweak corrections to superallowed β decays in effective field theory (EFT), including the power counting, potential and ultrasoft contributions, and factorization in the decay rate. Here, we present a first numerical evaluation of the dominant corrections in light nuclei based on quantum Monte Carlo methods, confirming the expectations from the EFT power counting. Finally, we discuss strategies how to extract from data the low-energy constants that parametrize short-distance contributions and whose values are not predicted by the EFT. Combined with advances in ab initio nuclear-structure calculations, this EFT framework allows one to systematically address the dominant uncertainty in V ud , as illustrated in detail for the 14 O → 14 N transition.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Staggered scheme for the compressible fluctuating hydrodynamics of multispecies fluid mixtures

Here, we present a numerical formulation for the solution of nonisothermal, compressible Navier-Stokes equations with thermal fluctuations to describe mesoscale transport phenomena in multispecies fluid mixtures. The novelty of our numerical method is the use of staggered grid momenta along with a finite volume discretization of the thermodynamic variables to solve the resulting stochastic partial differential equations. The key advantages of the numerical scheme are that it significantly simplifies the discretization of diffusive and stochastic momentum fluxes into a more compact form, and it provides an unambiguous prescription of boundary conditions involving pressure. The staggered grid scheme more accurately reproduces the equilibrium static structure factor of hydrodynamic fluctuations in gas mixtures compared to a collocated scheme described previously by Balakrishnan et al. [Phys. Rev. E 89, 013017 (2014)1539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.89.013017]. The numerical method is tested for ideal noble gases mixtures under various nonequilibrium conditions, such as applied thermal and concentration gradients, to assess the role of cross-diffusion effects, such as Soret and Dufour, on the long-ranged correlations of hydrodynamic fluctuations, which are also more accurately reproduced compared to the collocated scheme. We numerically study giant nonequilibrium fluctuations driven by concentration gradients and fluctuation-driven Rayleigh-Taylor instability in gas mixtures. Wherever applicable, excellent agreement is observed with theory and measurements from the direct simulation Monte Carlo method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Uncertainty Analysis of the CE-12 Free-Jet Probe Calibration Facility

This paper presents methods and results of a detailed measurement uncertainty analysis thf at was performed for the Free Jet Calibration Facility (CE-12) located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Results for systematic uncertainty estimates in a number of fluid properties of the free jet flow are presented. Systematic uncertainty captures inaccuracies due to measurement process, calibration, installation effects or other similar sources which may introduce bias. MANTUS (Measurement Analysis Tool for Uncertainty in Systems) was used to quantify instrumentation uncertainty and engineering judgment was used to quantify other systematic uncertainty sources. The Monte Carlo method was used to propagate systematic uncertainties to determine the uncertainties of various calculated variables of interest.

CE-12↗

Quantum Drude oscillators coupled with Coulomb potential as an efficient model for bonded and non-covalent interactions in atomic dimers

The quantum Drude oscillator (QDO) model has been widely used as an efficient surrogate to describe the electric response properties of matter as well as long-range interactions in molecules and materials. Most commonly, QDOs are coupled within the dipole approximation so that the Hamiltonian can be exactly diagonalized, which forms the basis for the many-body dispersion method [Phys. Rev. Lett. 108, 236402 (2012)]. The dipole coupling is efficient and allows us to study non-covalent many-body effects in systems with thousands of atoms. However, there are two limitations: (i) the need to regularize the interaction at short distances with empirical damping functions and (ii) the lack of multipolar effects in the coupling potential. In this work, we convincingly address both limitations of the dipole-coupled QDO model by presenting a numerically exact solution of the Coulomb-coupled QDO model by means of quantum Monte Carlo methods. We calculate the potential-energy surfaces of homogeneous QDO dimers, analyzing their properties as a function of the three tunable parameters: frequency, reduced mass, and charge. We study the coupled-QDO model behavior at short distances and show how to parameterize this model to enable an effective description of chemical bonds, such as the covalent bond in the H2 molecule.

Chemistry↗

Uncertainty Aware Structural Topology Optimization Via a Stochastic Reduced Order Model Approach

This work presents a stochastic reduced order modeling strategy for the quantification and propagation of uncertainties in topology optimization. Uncertainty aware optimization problems can be computationally complex due to the substantial number of model evaluations that are necessary to accurately quantify and propagate uncertainties. This computational complexity is greatly magnified if a high-fidelity, physics-based numerical model is used for the topology optimization calculations. Stochastic reduced order model (SROM) methods are applied here to effectively 1) alleviate the prohibitive computational cost associated with an uncertainty aware topology optimization problem; and 2) quantify and propagate the inherent uncertainties due to design imperfections. A generic SROM framework that transforms the uncertainty aware, stochastic topology optimization problem into a deterministic optimization problem that relies only on independent calls to a deterministic numerical model is presented. This approach facilitates the use of existing optimization and modeling tools to accurately solve the uncertainty aware topology optimization problems in a fraction of the computational demand required by Monte Carlo methods. Finally, an example in structural topology optimization is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed uncertainty aware structural topology optimization approach.

Aguilo, Miguel A.↗

Bridging the time scale in exascale computing of chemical systems (Final Technical Report)

This report summarizes the work carried out with support of the United States Department of Energy under Award DE-SC0019441. The theme of this project was to develop and apply methods that allowed for the acceleration of atomistic calculations, particularly in challenging areas such as multiphase systems, electrified interfaces, uncertainty estimation, and applications requiring chemical accuracy, which tend to be applications where simulation time is severely bottlenecked by the computational time requirements. Much of the focus was on the application of emerging machine-learning methodologies, although a wide range of methodologies were employed. This report has two major sections. The first focuses on the methodological advances themselves. Within this part, we report a number of major advances, a few examples of which are described here. We report the first machine-learning scheme for the acceleration of electronically grand-canonical calculations (that is, those applicable to electrochemistry). We report new methods of performing transfer learning, in which physics-based priors can be used to provide predictions, often with uncertainty estimates, of images well outside of training sets; we also offer ways to fine-tune these transfer-learning models. We provide a new systematic means to generate and apply minimal training data sets to very large (10,000’s of atoms) systems, with only small training sets appropriate for electronic structure. We developed new methodologies to integrate surface vibrations into surface adsorption calculations. We made advances to the applicability of diffusion Monte Carlo methods to allow (learned) force prediction, finite-size error correction, and force-free means of searching for transition states. We integrated machine-learned atomistic predictions into mechanism generation codes. Additionally, we released new software including AmpTorch, a modernized version of our original atomistic machine-learning code Amp. The second part of this report focuses on the scientific applications that accompanied, and were often enabled by, the methodological advances described earlier. A few examples follow, but full details are in the individual chapters of the report. For example, we developed a general theory of phonon-induced friction on molecular adsorbates. We showed fundamentally how solvent influences the adsorption and desorption process and how it differs from the processes typically involved at the solid–gas interface, making aqueous-phase and electrocatalysis different from traditional thermocatalysis. We examined how metal–insulator and magnetic transitions can be probed, and accelerated exciton dynamics via Frenkel Hamiltonian parameters. We showed that the nearsighted force-training approach, developed within this project, can predict both the stability and reactivity of large nanoparticles, and can also lead to insights on catalyst coverage on binding energies and entropies. These applied studies, which generally integrated with our method development, allowed us to push forward the theoretical understanding of several reaction classes.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Phase diagram of the Su-Schrieffer-Heeger-Hubbard model on a square lattice

The Hubbard and Su-Schrieffer-Heeger (SSH) Hamiltonians are iconic models for understanding the qualitative effects of electron-electron and electron-phonon interactions, respectively. In the two-dimensional square lattice Hubbard model at half filling, the on-site Coulomb repulsion U between up and down electrons induces antiferromagnetic (AFM) order and a Mott insulating phase. On the other hand, for the SSH model, there is an AFM phase when the electron-phonon coupling λ is less than a critical value λ c and a bond order wave when λ > λ c . In this Letter, we perform numerical studies on the square lattice optical Su-Schrieffer-Heeger-Hubbard Hamiltonian, which combines both interactions. We use the determinant quantum Monte Carlo method which does not suffer from the fermionic sign problem at half filling. We map out the phase diagram and find that it exhibits a direct first-order transition between an antiferromagnetic phase and a bond-ordered wave as λ increases. Here, the AFM phase is characterized by two different regions. At smaller λ the behavior is similar to that of the pure Hubbard model; the other region, while maintaining long-range AFM order, exhibits larger kinetic energies and double occupancy, i.e., larger quantum fluctuations, similar to the AFM phase found in the pure SSH model.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Tetraquarks made of sufficiently unequal-mass heavy quarks are bound in QCD

Tetraquarks, bound states composed of two quarks and two antiquarks, have been the subject of intense study but are challenging to understand from first principles. We apply variational and Green’s function Monte Carlo methods to compute tetraquark ground-state energies in potential nonrelativistic QCD using a wide range of color and spatial wave functions. We find no evidence for bound tetraquarks composed of equal-mass quarks and antiquarks. Conversely, we find clear evidence for the existence of bound tetraquarks for sufficiently unequal quark/antiquark mass ratios at all overall mass scales where our effective theory results are applicable. We predict the critical mass ratios for bound state formation and study tetraquark bound states’ spatial and color structure at leading order and next-to-leading order in potential nonrelativistic QCD. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Modeling Unconventional Superconductivity at the Crossover between Strong and Weak Electronic Interactions

High-temperature superconductivity emerges in many different quantum materials, often in regions of the phase diagram where the electronic kinetic energy is comparable to the electron-electron repulsion. Describing such intermediate-coupling regimes has proven challenging as standard perturbative approaches are inapplicable. In this study, we employ quantum Monte Carlo methods to solve a multiband Hubbard model that does not suffer from the sign problem and in which only repulsive interband interactions are present. In contrast to previous sign-problem-free studies, we treat magnetic, superconducting, and charge degrees of freedom on an equal footing. We find an antiferromagnetic dome accompanied by a metal-to-insulator crossover line in the intermediate-coupling regime, with a smaller superconducting dome appearing in the metallic region. Across the antiferromagnetic dome, the magnetic fluctuations change from overdamped in the metallic region to propagating in the insulating region. Our findings shed new light on the intertwining between superconductivity, magnetism, and charge correlations in quantum materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Auxiliary field diffusion Monte Carlo calculations of magnetic moments of light nuclei with chiral effective field theory interactions

We calculate the magnetic moments of light nuclei $( A < 20 )$ using the auxiliary field diffusion Monte Carlo method and local two- and three-nucleon forces with electromagnetic currents from chiral effective field theory. For all nuclei under consideration, we also calculate the ground-state energies and charge radii. We generally find a good agreement with experimental values for all of these observables. For the electromagnetic currents, we explore the impact of employing two different power counting schemes, and study theoretical uncertainties stemming from the truncation of the chiral expansion order by order for select nuclei within these two approaches. In conclusion, we find that it is crucial to employ consistent power counting schemes for interactions and currents to achieve a systematic order-by-order convergence.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Behavioral and Population Data-Driven Distribution System Load Modeling

Distribution system residential load modeling and analysis for different geographic areas within a utility or an independent system operator territory are critical for enabling small-scale, aggregated distributed energy resources to participate in grid services under Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 2222 [1]. In this study, we develop a methodology of modeling residential load profiles in different geographic areas with a focus on human behavior impact. First, we construct a behavior-based load profile model leveraging state-of-the-art appliance models. We simulate human activity and occupancy using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods calibrated with the American Time Use Survey data set. Second, we link our model with cleaned Current Population Survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Finally, we populate two sets of 500 households using California and Texas census data, respectively, to perform an initial analysis of the load in different geographic areas with various group features (e.g., different income levels). To distinguish the effect of population behavior differences on aggregated load, we simulate load profiles for both sets assuming fixed physical household parameters and weather data. Analysis shows that average daily load profiles vary significantly by income and income dependency varies by locality.

American Time Use Survey↗

Accretion and evolution of solar system bodies

We use a combination of analytical and numerical methods to study dynamical processes involved in the formation of planets and smaller bodies in the solar system. Our goal was to identify and understand critical processes and to link them in a numerical model of planetesimal accretion. We study effects of these processes by applying them in the context of the standard model of solar system formation, which involves accretion of the terrestrial planets and cores of the giant planet from small planetesimals. The principal focus of our research effort is the numerical simulation of accretion of a swarm of planetesimals into bodies of planetary size. Our computer code uses a Monte Carlo method to determine collisional interactions within the swarm. These interactions are not determined simply by a relative velocity, but rather by explicit distributions of keplerian orbital elements. The planetesimal swarm is divided into a number of zones in semimajor axis, which are allowed to interact. The present version of our code has the capability of following detailed distributions of size, eccentricity, and inclination in each zone.

Weidenschilling, S. J.↗

Quantum membrane phases in synthetic lattices of cold molecules or Rydberg atoms

Here, we calculate properties of dipolar interacting ultracold molecules or Rydberg atoms in a semisynthetic three-dimensional configuration—one synthetic dimension plus a two-dimensional real-space optical lattice or periodic microtrap array—using the stochastic Green's function quantum Monte Carlo method. Through a calculation of thermodynamic quantities and appropriate correlation functions, along with their finite-size scalings, we show that there is a second-order transition to a low-temperature phase in which two-dimensional “sheets” form in the synthetic dimension of internal rotational or electronic states of the molecules or Rydberg atoms, respectively. Simulations for different values of the interaction V, which acts between atoms or molecules that are adjacent both in real and synthetic space, allow us to compute a phase diagram. We find a finite-temperature transition at sufficiently large V as well as a quantum phase transition—a critical value V c below which the transition temperature vanishes.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Quantum Monte Carlo determination of the principal Hugoniot of deuterium

Here, we present coupled electron-ion Monte Carlo results for the principal Hugoniot of deuterium together with an accurate study of the initial reference state of shock-wave experiments. We discuss the influence of nuclear quantum effects, thermal electronic excitations, and the convergence of the potential energy surface by wave-function optimization within variational Monte Carlo and projection quantum Monte Carlo methods. Compared to a previous study, our calculations also include low pressure-temperature (P,T) conditions resulting in close agreement with experimental data, while our revised results at higher (P,T) conditions still predict a more compressible Hugoniot than experimentally observed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗